Home Price Monitor

Cutting Through the NoiseJanuary 26, 2011

Next Release: February 26, 2011

RESEARCH

Highlights and Outlook

• Home prices were relatively stable in November and December, a seasonally weak time for home sales. Most data series showed slight or modest declines for the month and year, but a few measures showed slight increases in prices and new home prices rose robustly.

• Rising home sales and smaller inventories will contribute to price stability going forward, perhaps especially among newer homes where low levels of construction have inventories of new homes for sale near all-time lows.

• Job growth, a relatively stable level of hires and an increase in job openings bode well for consumer demand and increased sales in the months ahead.

RESEARCH

Home Prices

RESEARCH

Nov-00 Jun-01 Jan-02 Aug-02 Mar-03 Oct-03 May-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

Home Price Data – Year over Year Change

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

RESEARCH

Nov-00 Jun-01 Jan-02 Aug-02 Mar-03 Oct-03 May-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)

Home Price Changes

RESEARCH

*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.

Data Series

Nov-10 Monthly Change*

Nov-10 Annual Change*

Dec-10 Monthly Change*

Dec-10 Annual Change*

Next Release Date

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes -0.1% 0.1% -0.8% -1.0% 23-FebNAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes -0.3% 0.9% -0.9% -0.2% 23-FebFHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only -0.4% -4.3% -- -- 25-FebS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -1.0% -1.6% -- -- 22-FebS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -0.8% -0.4% -- -- 22-FebCoreLogic National HPI -1.6% -5.1% -- -- Mid-FebCoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded -0.3% -2.2% -- -- Mid-FebNew 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price 6.9% -1.5% 12.1% 8.5% 24-Feb

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

Spread of Existing Home Price ChangesYear over Year

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER

RESEARCH

Nov-06

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory

Sources: NAR

RESEARCH

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)

NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months) (right axis)

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)

Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits

Sources: Census

RESEARCH

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)

Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires

Sources: BLS

RESEARCH

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)

Potential Job Growth – Openings

Sources: BLS

RESEARCH

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)

Housing Affordability

Sources: NAR

RESEARCH

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%) NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States

NAR Housing Affordability Index: Compos-ite (right axis)

NAR Payment as Percent of Income (left axis)

About the Price Data Series

RESEARCH

Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data SeriesNAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing HomesNAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase OnlyWeighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase & refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 CoreLogic National HPI CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction

Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops

WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value; quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and composites are 3 month moving averagesWeighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County recorder data

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

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