History of the FutureHistory of the Future

11: The Recent Future11: The Recent Future

Star Wars Changes Star Wars Changes EverythingEverything

More fairly tale than science More fairly tale than science fictionfiction Far future, mythic past – same thingFar future, mythic past – same thing

Myth for a whole generationMyth for a whole generation Mechanizing blitzMechanizing blitz

ToysToys CollectablesCollectables Comic booksComic books NovelsNovels Computer gamesComputer games

Return to space operaReturn to space opera Many ideas from 1930s pulpMany ideas from 1930s pulp

Boom in FilmsBoom in Films

Immediate Star Wars rip-offsImmediate Star Wars rip-offs Battlestar Galactica, etc. – few succeedBattlestar Galactica, etc. – few succeed

Sci-Fi and Horror dominate 80s box Sci-Fi and Horror dominate 80s box officeoffice ET, Close Encounters join Star Wars trilogyET, Close Encounters join Star Wars trilogy

Futuristic action films very popularFuturistic action films very popular TerminatorTerminator AliensAliens

Sci-FiSci-Fi

Really a genre of its ownReally a genre of its own TV (with its own channel)TV (with its own channel) Films (mostly action)Films (mostly action) Tie-in booksTie-in books

Much more popular than “classic” SFMuch more popular than “classic” SF let alone literary approacheslet alone literary approaches

Enjoyable but formulaicEnjoyable but formulaic Appeal is predictability; not innovationAppeal is predictability; not innovation

Nostalgia for the FutureNostalgia for the Future

Sci-Fi takes place in “alternate future”Sci-Fi takes place in “alternate future” Props, concepts from 30s, 40s and 50sProps, concepts from 30s, 40s and 50s

Props of genre have a life of their ownProps of genre have a life of their own Rocket ships and Space combatRocket ships and Space combat Aliens and MutantsAliens and Mutants Overpopulation or drab futureOverpopulation or drab future Time Travel and Parallel WorldsTime Travel and Parallel Worlds

As with props of mysteries or westernsAs with props of mysteries or westerns

Reworking of Older FormsReworking of Older Forms Often done in playful or Often done in playful or

revisionist wayrevisionist way Recent revival of space Recent revival of space

operaopera Ian Banks – baroque, Ian Banks – baroque,

sometimes serioussometimes serious Colin Greenland, Paul J. Colin Greenland, Paul J.

McAuleyMcAuley Gene WolfeGene Wolfe

Literary transformation of SF Literary transformation of SF and fantasy archetypesand fantasy archetypes

SharecroppingSharecropping Recycling of popular worldsRecycling of popular worlds

Started with Star Trek, Star Started with Star Trek, Star WarsWars

Written under firm direction, Written under firm direction, low royaltieslow royalties

Sequels written to many Sequels written to many old booksold books Asimov’s Foundation seriesAsimov’s Foundation series many Clarke booksmany Clarke books New Dune sequelsNew Dune sequels

““Shared world” anthologiesShared world” anthologies Many writers contribute to Many writers contribute to

single seriessingle series

Boom in “High Fantasy”Boom in “High Fantasy”

Lord of the Rings spawns new genreLord of the Rings spawns new genre Terry Brooks is first best-selling imitatorTerry Brooks is first best-selling imitator

1977 – The Sword of Shannara (7 follow)1977 – The Sword of Shannara (7 follow) Many other epic trilogies followMany other epic trilogies follow

Donaldson (Thomas Covenant – 2 trilogies)Donaldson (Thomas Covenant – 2 trilogies) Eddings (The Belgariad – 2 series, 10 books)Eddings (The Belgariad – 2 series, 10 books) Tad Williams (Memory, Thorn & Sorrow)Tad Williams (Memory, Thorn & Sorrow)

Most are crude and derivativeMost are crude and derivative

ConvergenceConvergence

SF readers and writers withSF readers and writers with Horror (Steven King, Dan Simmons)Horror (Steven King, Dan Simmons) Fantasy (Card, John Crowley, Gene Wolfe, Greg Fantasy (Card, John Crowley, Gene Wolfe, Greg

Bear)Bear) All involve creation of imaginary worldsAll involve creation of imaginary worlds

Fantasy seems to be gaining upper handFantasy seems to be gaining upper hand Harry Potter won the Hugo in 2001Harry Potter won the Hugo in 2001

Escapist thrills separating from scientific Escapist thrills separating from scientific and social extrapolationand social extrapolation As they mostly were before 1940sAs they mostly were before 1940s

Many Sub GenresMany Sub Genres ““Hard” science fictionHard” science fiction

Scientific focus, retains some appealScientific focus, retains some appeal Greg Bear, Greg EganGreg Bear, Greg Egan

Militaristic science fictionMilitaristic science fiction ““Literary” science fiction (dwindling)Literary” science fiction (dwindling)

Gene WolfeGene Wolfe Space Opera (reviving)Space Opera (reviving)

Mostly with Scots, for some reasonMostly with Scots, for some reason Alternate History (booms recently)Alternate History (booms recently)

The FutureThe Future Social extrapolations seems to have Social extrapolations seems to have

fadedfaded In futurology as well as SFIn futurology as well as SF Idea of straightforward progression fadedIdea of straightforward progression faded

Interest in science also fadingInterest in science also fading Especially physicsEspecially physics

Dominated recently by computer Dominated recently by computer technologytechnology Internet viewed as transforming social forceInternet viewed as transforming social force Also viewed as business revolutionAlso viewed as business revolution

Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics ““The Dreams our Stuff is Made Of”The Dreams our Stuff is Made Of”

(title of Thomas M. Disch book)(title of Thomas M. Disch book) Ideas of futuristic technology shape Ideas of futuristic technology shape

real thingsreal things Engineers, designers grow up readingEngineers, designers grow up reading May inspire some products May inspire some products

(videophone!)(videophone!) Futuristic styling is popularFuturistic styling is popular

Imagery is inescapable in filmsImagery is inescapable in films Influences look of devices, electronicsInfluences look of devices, electronics

Futuristic thrill of using?Futuristic thrill of using?

Future in Business – late 90sFuture in Business – late 90s Predictions of enormous tech growthPredictions of enormous tech growth

Business plans to sell sharesBusiness plans to sell shares Market research and analysisMarket research and analysis Computer commentators (Negroponte, Computer commentators (Negroponte,

etc.)etc.) Futurists like TofflerFuturists like Toffler

Everyone is a “visionary”Everyone is a “visionary” Rush to try out new thingsRush to try out new things

Communications technologiesCommunications technologies Business modelsBusiness models

Hundreds of billions of dollars Hundreds of billions of dollars investedinvested On basis of science fiction?On basis of science fiction?

A Paradox?A Paradox? SF genre booms from 1930s to 1960sSF genre booms from 1930s to 1960s

Interest in future extrapolation now fadingInterest in future extrapolation now fading genre boundaries breaking downgenre boundaries breaking down

But since 1970sBut since 1970s Sci-fi ideas of future become ubiquitousSci-fi ideas of future become ubiquitous Influence SDI, technology stocks boom, etc.Influence SDI, technology stocks boom, etc. We have a feeling of own world as futuristicWe have a feeling of own world as futuristic

Has business replaced science fiction?Has business replaced science fiction?

Rosy Possibilities for FutureRosy Possibilities for Future Mostly dull, business orientedMostly dull, business oriented Growing world prosperityGrowing world prosperity

Globalization of businessGlobalization of business Forward thinking, caring corporationsForward thinking, caring corporations Establishment of democracyEstablishment of democracy

Ideological divides fadeIdeological divides fade Technology transforms worldTechnology transforms world

InternetInternet NanotechnologyNanotechnology Better jobs, more productivityBetter jobs, more productivity

Dark Possibilities for FutureDark Possibilities for Future More exciting!More exciting! Killer diseasesKiller diseases

AIDS is huge world problemAIDS is huge world problem Asteroid impactsAsteroid impacts TerrorismTerrorism

Biological weapons?Biological weapons? Nuclear warNuclear war Technological threatsTechnological threats

NanotechnologyNanotechnology Genetic EngineeringGenetic Engineering

Environmental catastropheEnvironmental catastrophe

What Does This Tell Us?What Does This Tell Us?

Are recent futures less revealing?Are recent futures less revealing? The early stuff seemed much clearerThe early stuff seemed much clearer

Or are we just too close to it?Or are we just too close to it? Do our own futures always seem Do our own futures always seem

natural?natural? What will people think in 50 years timeWhat will people think in 50 years time

Does science fiction have anything to Does science fiction have anything to do with the future?do with the future?