History of Immigration to Texas - Dallasfed.org/media/documents/research/events/2014/...History of...

History of Immigration to Texas

• For most of its history, Texas has attracted settlers from the rest of the nation rather than abroad – Mexican immigrants did not begin to settle

permanently until late 1970s and 1980s • Texas’ immigrant share of the population didn’t

surpass that of nation until late 1980s – Immigration in 1980s was dominated by low-skilled

workers • Oil bust provided impetus for the diversification

of Texas’ economy – 1990s Texas attracted high-skilled immigrants

Large-Scale Immigration to Texas Is a Recent Phenomenon

Foreign-Born Population Share by Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Texas

U.S.

Percent

SOURCES: “Historical Census Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States: 1850–2000,” by Campbell Gibson and Kay Jung, Population Division Working Paper no. 81, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006; 2010 American Community Survey.

Job growth by wage quartile and decade

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Lowest Wage Quartile Lower-Middle WageQuartile

Upper-Middle WageQuartile

Highest Wage Quartile

1979-1989 1989-1999 1999-2011

Percent

NOTE: Calculations include workers over age 15 with positive wages. Quartiles based on U.S. wage distribution in the 1980 decennial census, which refers to 1979 wages. Growth in 1999-2011 is multiplied by 10/12 for comparability. SOURCE: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census, 2012 American Community Survey.

Texas Metros Become Global Destinations Foreign-Born Population Share

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1980 1990 2000 2011

Houston

El Paso

Dallas-Ft. Worth Austin

San Antonio

Percent

SOURCES: 1970-2000 census; 2011 American Community Survey.

A Portrait of Texas Immigrants Today

Characteristics of Texas Immigrants • Majority is from Mexico, followed by Asia and the rest of

Latin America – Came to the U.S. more recently than in the rest of the nation – Likely to live in urban areas, especially Austin, DFW, and

Houston • Much more likely than U.S. natives to be in their prime

working years • Concentrated at the top and especially at the bottom of the

education distribution – Texas immigrants lag the nation’s in schooling

• Higher employment rates than immigrants in the rest of the nation – In some cases, they even out earn immigrations in the rest of

the U.S. – Work disproportionately in “STEM” occupations as well as labor-

intensive occupations such as construction and farm work

Where Are They From? Origins of Texas and U.S. Immigrants

60

11

1

3

19

6

Mexico Central and South America Caribbean Africa Asia Europe, Canada, Oceania

26

15

10 4

29

16

Rest of U.S. Texas

SOURCE: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.

Texas Immigrants Are Concentrated in Urban Areas and Along Border

Foreign-Born Population Share, by County

SOURCE: 2007-11 American Community Survey five-year estimates.

Dallas/Fort Worth

Houston

San Antonio

El Paso

Austin

Immigrants Tend to Be of Working Age Age Profile of Immigrants vs. Natives in Texas

Under 45 to 9

10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 79Over 80

U.S. NativesImmigrants

Age

Percent 15 15 10 10 5 5 0


Educational Attainment of Immigrants and Natives Inside and Outside Texas

45

19 15

12

8

30

23 19

16

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Texas Rest of U.S.

Percent

SOURCE: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates. Calculations include individuals over age 24.

12

27

33

19

9 11

30 31

18

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Percent

Natives

Less than high school

High school credential

Some college

Bachelor's degree

Graduate/ professional degree

Immigrants

Less than high school

High school credential

Some college

Bachelor's degree

Graduate/ professional degree

Texas Immigrants Do Well in the Labor Market Labor Force Participation Rate

Texas Rest of U.S.

Immigrants (percent)

U.S. natives (percent)



Less than high school credential

64.8 43.2 59.2 35.6

High School credential 67.2 64.1 65.9 58.0

Some college 75.4 69.8 71.0 68.5

Bachelor’s degree 72.5 77.4 72.5 76.1

Graduate/professional degree

84.3 77.1 78.8 75.7

NOTE: Calculated for the population over age 24. SOURCE: 2012 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotations Group data.

Texas Immigrants Do Well in the Labor Market Unemployment Rate

Texas Rest of U.S.






6.8 12.3 9.8 15.2


Some college 4.5 5.5 8.0 7.0



2.1 1.9 4.1 3.0


Low- and High-Skilled Immigrants Earn as Much or More in Texas

Median Weekly Earnings Texas Rest of U.S.

Immigrants U.S. natives Immigrants U.S. natives


$401 $423 $399 $439

High school credential $460 $600 $499 $599

Some college $514 $685 $601 $682

Bachelor’s degree $857 $997 $942 $997


$1,435 $1,180 $1,342 $1,265

All groups $496 $757 $597 $767

All groups (including ages 16-24)

$481 $677 $567 $678

NOTE: Median weekly earnings are deflated using the monthly CPI-W (December 2012=100) and are conditional on being employed, over age 24, with positive earnings. SOURCE: 2012 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotations Group data.

Low-Skilled Immigrants Concentrated in Services, Construction and Ag Jobs

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pest control occupations

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

Timber, logging, and forestry workers

Miners

Motor vehicle operators

Waiters and waitresses

Mechanics

Child care workers

Kitchen workers

Janitors

Cooks, variously defined

Farm workers

Hairdressers and cosmetologists

Misc food prep workers

Housekeepers, maids, butlers

Construction laborers

Gardeners and groundskeepers

Percent Note: Percentage of foreign-born Texas workers over age 24 with less than high school education for selected occupations. Source: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.

Foreign born as a percentage of Texas labor force with less than high school education

High-Skilled Immigrants Fill STEM Jobs

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

VeterinariansLawyers/Judges

Biological techniciansFinancial managers

Chief executives and public administratorsActors, directors, producers

Sales RelatedManagers and administrators

ArchitectsAccountants and auditors

Economists, market and survey researchersDentists

ChemistsBiological scientistsRegistered nurses

High school and college instructorsChemical engineers

PharmacistsMechanical engineers

Comp. analysts and scientistsMathematicians

PhysiciansComputer software developers

Medical scientists

Percent Note: Percentage of foreign-born Texas workers over age 24 with college education or higher for selected occupations. Source: 2009-11 American Community Survey three-year estimates.

Foreign born as a percentage of Texas labor force with college education or higher

Illegal Immigration to Texas

Illegal Immigrants in Texas • ‘Americans’ were the first illegal immigrants to Texas

– In the early 20th century: Chinese and Europeans – Mexicans were exempt from the quotas and tests, in high

demand • The Bracero Program was created in 1942 to allow

Mexican workers to take temporary agricultural jobs – Texas was originally excluded, leading to illegal immigration – No law against hiring unauthorized workers

• Today, 1.8 million unauthorized immigrants live in Texas – 43 percent of the foreign-born population

• Public and political attitudes towards unauthorized immigrants are more moderate in Texas than in other states

Economic Effects of Immigration

Economic Effects

• Immigration increases the labor force, especially as U.S. native population ages more rapidly

• Native population benefits through lower prices of immigrant-produced goods and services, higher returns on capital and land

• Increased specialization leads to higher productivity

• Texas immigrants’ success does not appear to have come at natives’ expense – Migration endogenous to growth, relieved bottlenecks

and accompanied by capital inflows

Challenges Posed by Immigration

Challenges Posed by Immigration • Immigrants more likely than natives to be poor, and the

gap is larger in Texas – However, poverty measures do not take into account

Texas’ lower costs of living • Fewer immigrants in Texas report speaking English well

than in the rest of the nation • Some fiscal costs for state and local government, such

as public education – Texas’ tax system reduces these costs, since all workers pay

taxes on retail sales and on property • Immigrants in Texas have slightly higher participation in

TANF, SNAP, SSI and Medicaid – Much less likely to have health coverage

Immigrant Poverty Rates Higher in Texas Poverty Rates by Nativity

0

5

10

15

20

25

Immigrant-Headed Households U.S. Native-Headed Households

Texas Rest of U.S.

Percent

SOURCE: Current Population Surveys for March 2010-12.

Immigrant Welfare Participation Slightly Higher in Texas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Immigrant-Headed Households U.S. Native-Headed Households

Texas Rest of U.S.

Percent


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Immigrants U.S. Natives Immigrants U.S. Natives

Texas Rest of U.S.

Any Public Private

Percent


Immigrant’s Health Insurance Coverage Much Lower in Texas

Domestic Migration

Migration from Other States • Texas has been the top destination for domestic

migrants since 2006. – Increased dramatically in the wake of Hurricane Katrina,

began to outnumber international migration • Skewed to high-skilled labor

– Migrants from other states are more likely than the Texas population to have a bachelor’s, graduate, or professional degree

• Almost a quarter of domestic migrants come from California – Texas has lost residents on net to only 10 states since 2005,

mainly other “energy” states

Texas Is Top Destination for Domestic Migrants Since 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Domestic International

Net migration to Texas (thousands)

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. NOTES: Census Bureau population estimates approximate the population on July 1 of the year indicated and thus capture changes from the previous year. Data are not available for decennial census years.

Hurricane Katrina

New Arrivals a Key Source of Skilled Workers Educational Attainment of New Arrivals

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Less Than HighSchool Graduate

High SchoolGraduate

Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Domestic Migrants International Migrants Texas Population

Percent

NOTE: Calculations include individuals over age 24. SOURCE: 2010-2012 American Community Survey three-year estimates.

California is Top Sending State for Migration to Texas

California 23%

Florida 9%

New York 7%

Illinois 6%

Michigan 4%

Alaska 4%

Arizona 4%

New Jersey 4%

North Carolina 3%

Tennessee 3%

Other 33%

SOURCE: 2006-12 American Community Survey.

What Texas Has Learned

Lessons from Decades of Immigration

• Texas economy has inherent strengths, such as natural resources, that set it apart – Booms and busts of energy sector necessitate

diversification • People relocate to Texas due to abundant job

opportunities, low cost of living, and relatively low tax burden

• Low-skilled workers come to Texas despite skimpy safety net and lower levels of public services

• Rapid economic growth generates labor inflow, and policy that does not take into account both supply and demand factors may become irrelevant

Texas Immigrants Do Well in the Labor Market Employment-to-population rate

Texas Rest of U.S.






60.4 37.9 53.4 30.1


Some college 71.9 66.0 65.3 63.7



82.6 75.7 75.6 73.4


Immigration to Texas Got a Late Start Arrival Dates of Immigrants

10

11

19

27

34

6

11

18

29

36

Before 1970

1970's

1980's

1990's

Since 2000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

TXRest of U.S.


Immigrant’s English Proficiency Lower in Texas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Does Not Speak English Speaks English, NotWell

Speaks English Well Speaks English VeryWell

Speaks Only English

Texas Rest of U.S.

Percent


0

10

20

30

40

50

60




Job Growth by Decade in Texas

1979-1989 1989-1999 1999-2011

Percent

NOTE: Calculations include workers over age 15 with positive wages. Quartiles based on Texas wage distribution in the 1980 decennial census, which refers to 1979 wages. SOURCE: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census, 2012 American Community Survey.

Title (TX QUARTILES)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140




Change in Employment 1979-2011

Texas U.S. Minus Texas

Percent

NOTE: Calculations include workers over age 15 with positive wages. Quartiles based on U.S. wage distribution in the1980 decennial census, which refers to 1979 wages. SOURCE: 1980 Census, 2012 American Community Survey.

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