High-Level Advocacy Forum on Statistics: The Urgency of Statistics and the Global Enabling Development in the Caribbean Community 30 July, 2009, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Managing bad weather – making greater use and better sense of statistics

Gerald Haberkorn

Manager, Statistics and Demography Programme

Secretariat of the Pacific Community

Noumea, New Caledonia

(www.spc.int/sdp)

Structure of Presentation

1. Introduction: Pacific community2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s

economies and the wellbeing of its people3. How can we contribute to help make greater use

and better sense of statistics?4. Concluding remarks

MAP LAYER

SPC Member countries and territories

Marshall Islands

Kiribati

Tuvalu

French Polynesia

Tokelau

AmSamoa

SamoaWallis etFutuna

PitcairnIslands

CookIslands

Niue

Fiji

Vanuatu

New Caledonia

SolomonIslands

Papua New Guinea

Tonga

Nauru

Palau

Guam

CNMI

Federated States of Micronesia

TEXT LAYER

One of hundreds

• 15 countries, 7 territories• Population (2009): 9,7 million• Papua New Guinea (6,7 million -> Pitcairn 57 people)• 3 sub-regions: Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia• Substantial diversity: bio-physical environment,

economies, demography, cultural and political– 0.1% of world population – 1/3 of world’s known and

documented languages (700)• Considerable similarities:

– Small size of domestic markets– Heavy reliance on imports– Isolation/transport challenges and costs– Dominance of public sectors– Weak manufacturing base and high cost structure

1. Introduction: the Pacific Community

Challenge:

many available statistics seem less relevant to what is required to:• accurately describe the impact/implications of

this crisis, • effectively contribute to the development of

appropriate policy responses.

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

Contributing factors

• Almost match in conceptual relevance of what is available to what is needed.

• Absence of real-time data in many cases • under-performing administrative databases• Irregularity of major collections• Long lead-time t produce outputs

• General absence of data on direct (tangible/visible) impact on people and communities

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

Illustration: annual GDP growth

• Recognised indicator of performance of economy – feedback on impact of crisis

• Need to determine trickle-down effect on people and households

• Regular labor force surveys very important (absence across most PICs)

• Reliance on censuses/HH surveys -> cannot capture real-time dynamics

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

Illustration: annual GDP growth (ii)

1. Global crisis not fully materializing until the 2nd part of 2008

2007 figures, 2008 estimates not very informative on actual impacts on Pacific island economies today.

2. GDP volatility over past 8 years (Figures 1a-b).

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

Figure 1a: Annual GDP (real) growth in selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2008

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Cook Islands

FSM

Fiji

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Nauru

New Caledonia

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Samoa

Solomon Islands

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Figure 1a: Annual GDP per capita (real) growth in selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2008

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Cook Islands

FSM

Fiji Islands

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

New Caledonia

Niue

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Samoa

Solomon Islands

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Illustration: annual GDP growth (iii)

3. Even the very high GDP growth (>7%) / per capita growth (> 4%) in PNG/SI means little in development terms on the ground, where some 80% of populations live outside the GDP zone

• contribution of subsistence produce, cultural products and traditional wealth remain largely outside such calculations,

• Isolated from most basic government services or infrastructure.

• Lowest MDG achievements across the region

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

Absence of alternative indicators

Challenges• Complement regular statistics on the radar of most

NSOs with measures that capture individual household wellbeing, equity in the distribution of resources and the general welfare of citizens.

• Engage more vigorously with data users and stakeholders

• Meet current and anticipate future data needs

2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s economies and the wellbeing of its people

What do we need, what can we do?

• Enabling environment, facilitating conditions (Resources, functioning NSS, regular data user-producer dialogue, committed leadership, culture of evidence-based decision making)

• Partnerships between data producers an users (national level, public/private sector; international)

• Delivery on, and management of expectations (provide public service, adapt to changing world)

3. How can we help contribute to help make greater use and better sense of statistics?

• Partnership building, delivering on/managing expectations is ongoing work-in-progress

• Progress in the making (enabled by political mandate: Pacific Plan)

• Development of Minimum National Development Indicator (MNDI) databases

• Core set for all Pacific island countries/territories

• Mix of methodologies/measures (improvement to administrative databases; short/regular HH-based development indicator survey; socio-economic surveillance)

• Development of NSS – build upon/consolidate recent achievements

4. Concluding Remarks

• Untie “urgency of statistics” from current crisis• tie to everyday management/decision-making

Thank you.

4. Concluding Remarks