Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’ How pupils’ data provides both challenge and...

Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’How pupils’ data provides both challenge

and opportunity

Professor David Jesson

University of York

[email protected]


and opportunity


University of York

[email protected]

Maximising Pupils’ Performance Maximising Pupils’ Performance

or – the dangers of League Tables

Performance ComparisonsPerformance Comparisons

Beware … the dangers of league tablesBeware … the dangers of league tables

S-Rate

A 91%

B 73%

C 82%

D 55%

E 5%

F 99.2%

Hospital Type

Orthopaedic

Accident/Emergency

General Surgical

Coronary Unit

Maternity (shd be 200+ %)

Hospice

for Hospitals!

First Major Principle of Fair EvaluationFirst Major Principle of Fair Evaluation

• What goes in affects what comes out• What goes in affects what comes out

Performance Comparisons: as used by OfSTRICHPerformance Comparisons: as used by OfSTRICH

Beware … the dangers of league tablesBeware … the dangers of league tables

S-Rate

A 91%

B 73%

C 82%

D 55%

E 5%

F 99.2%

Hospital Type

Orthopaedic

Accident/Emergency

General Surgical

Coronary Unit

Maternity

Hospice

BENCHMARKSGood Avg Poor

Second Major Principle of Fair EvaluationSecond Major Principle of Fair Evaluation

• Essential to compare like with like• Essential to compare like with like

L2L1K2K1J 2J 1I2I1H2H1G2G1F2F1E2E1D2D1C2C1B2B1A2A1

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

Month of Birth

%5+

A*

to C

Pas

ses

Sept Aug

Girls

Boys

Some surprising things affect outcomes

YWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

Month of Birth

%5+

A*

to C

Pas

ses

Sept Sept

Month of Birth

Aug Aug

Girls

Boys

Another way of looking at GCSE Performance Birthmonth and Gender

But the most important impact is that made by pupils’ Ks2 Points

Level 2B

15 Pts

Level 2B

15 Pts

Level 4

27 Pts

Level 4

27 Pts

Level 5/6

36 Pts

Level 5/6

36 Pts5+ A*/A Grades5+ A*/A Grades

Ks1

Ks2

Ks3

GCSENational Curriculum

Assessment FrameworkNational Curriculum

Assessment Framework

Age 7Age 7

Age 11Age 11

Age 16Age 16

Age 14Age 14

3+ A*/A

A Level

Age 18

National Curriculum Test Levels and PointsNational Curriculum Test Levels and Points

87654321W

87654321W

..

66

12 12

1818

2424

3030

3636

4242

484851

45

39

33

27

21

15

9

3

51

45

39

33

27

21

15

9

3

Levels Points MidPoints

What goes INTO schoolsWhat goes INTO schools

3231302928272625242322

3231302928272625242322

200

150

100

50

0

200

150

100

50

0

Schools' Average Ks2 Points

Fre

quen

cy

National Intake (Ks2 Points) characteristics for 2010 GCSE Cohort

What COMES OUT of SchoolsWhat COMES OUT of Schools

100908070605040302010

100908070605040302010

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Percentage achieving 5+ A*CEM Passes

Num

ber

of S

choo

ls

GCSE results from 2010

What comes OUT in context of what GOES INWhat comes OUT in context of what GOES IN

313029282726252423

313029282726252423

100

90

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10

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Schools' Average ks2 Points

% a

chie

ving

5+

A*C

EM

Pas

ses

2010 GCSE results in context of Schools' Intake

Dotted line shows the average or

expected outcome for schools

What comes OUT in context of what GOES INWhat comes OUT in context of what GOES IN

313029282726252423

313029282726252423

100

90

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90

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Schools' Average ks2 Points

% a

chie

ving

5+

A*C

EM

Pas

ses

2010 GCSE results in context of Schools' Intake

School Level Analyses give overall ‘signals’for more information we need to review Pupils’ progress

School Level Analyses give overall ‘signals’for more information we need to review Pupils’ progress

With around 600,000 pupils taking national tests in each year we have an incomparable source of information about the progress made by different ‘types’ of pupil:

For example:

• Boys/Girls

• Older/Younger

• Advantaged/Disadvantaged

But most important of all:

• Outcomes for pupils of similar but differing ‘abilities’

With around 600,000 pupils taking national tests in each year we have an incomparable source of information about the progress made by different ‘types’ of pupil:

For example:

• Boys/Girls

• Older/Younger

• Advantaged/Disadvantaged

But most important of all:

• Outcomes for pupils of similar but differing ‘abilities’

Much better understanding of how well schools do arises from looking at PUPILS

Much better understanding of how well schools do arises from looking at PUPILS

Every year some 600,000 pupils take the Key Stage 2 tests – these provide a basis for GROUPING pupils into 5 BANDS

- so that we can discover how well pupils ‘like ours’ perform in all the other schools in the country

This produces a ‘Progress Framework’ which we use in each school to see how much ‘better’ (or ‘worse’) our

pupils have done when compared to national ‘expectations’

35.935 .835 .735 .635 .535 .435 .335 .235 .135 .034 .934 .834 .734.634 .534 .434 .334 .234 .134 .033 .933 .833 .733 .633 .533.433 .333 .233 .133 .032 .932 .832 .732 .632 .532 .432 .332.232 .132 .031 .931 .831 .731 .631 .531 .431 .331 .231 .131.030 .930 .830 .730 .630 .530 .430.330 .230 .130 .029 .929 .829 .729 .629 .529 .429 .329 .229.129 .028 .928 .828 .728 .628 .528 .428 .328 .228 .128 .027.927 .827 .727 .627 .527 .427 .327 .227 .127 .026 .926 .826.726 .626 .526 .426 .326 .226 .126 .025 .925 .825 .725.625 .525 .425 .325 .225 .125 .024.924 .824 .724 .624 .524 .424 .324 .224 .124 .023 .923 .823.723 .623 .523 .423 .323 .223 .123 .022 .922 .822 .722 .622.522 .422 .322 .222 .122 .021 .921 .821 .721 .621 .521 .421.321 .221 .121 .020 .920 .820 .720 .620 .520 .420 .320 .220 .120 .019 .919 .819 .719 .619.519 .419 .319 .219 .119 .018 .918 .818 .718 .618 .518 .418.318 .218 .118 .017 .917 .817 .717 .617 .517 .417 .317 .217.117 .016 .916 .816 .716 .616 .516 .416 .316 .216 .116 .015.915 .815 .715 .615 .515 .415 .315.215 .115 .0

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Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points

No'

s of

Pup

ilsNational distribution of Key Stage 2 Points

for 600,000 pupils annually

12 18 24 30 36

Low Below Avge Abv HighOver 600,000

pupils take these tests each year. They are NEW tests on each occasion and provide the basis for

reviewing BOTH pupils’ later progress and schools’.

Over 600,000 pupils take

these tests each year. They are NEW tests on each occasion and provide the basis for

reviewing BOTH pupils’ later progress and schools’.

Defining Pupil GroupsDefining Pupil Groups

For each year group, pupils can be placed in one of five KS2 groups defined by KS2 points score

For each year group, pupils can be placed in one of five KS2 groups defined by KS2 points score

Low Below Average Above High

15.0to

22.5

22.5to

25.5

25.5 to

28.5

28.5 to

30.5

30.5 to

36.0

Using Pupil information: 2010UpdateUsing Pupil information: 2010Update

• Each year DFE provides data showing % of pupils achieving 5+ A*CEM passes in each of these groups:


3% 16% 48% 80% 95%

4% 18% 52% 83% 96%

3% 14% 43% 75% 94%

Girls

Boys

What is ‘expected’ of pupils in each groupWhat is ‘expected’ of pupils in each group

3%3%

16%16%

48%48%

80%80%

95%95%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Low Below Avge Above High

Boys

Mixed

Girls

These frameworks are now accessible to all schoolsThese frameworks are now accessible to all schools

SSAT’s Data Enabler Service allows schools to:

• Review their latest progress

• Identify areas of strength and weakness

• Provide Subject Area evaluations

• Identify specific pupil groups and teachers

• Use the frameworks to ‘predict’ what performance to expect from the next round of GCSE exams

• Provide a starting point for official inspection reports and evaluations

• BUT WHAT DOESN’T IT DO ….??

SSAT’s Data Enabler Service allows schools to:

• Review their latest progress

• Identify areas of strength and weakness

• Provide Subject Area evaluations

• Identify specific pupil groups and teachers

• Use the frameworks to ‘predict’ what performance to expect from the next round of GCSE exams

• Provide a starting point for official inspection reports and evaluations

• BUT WHAT DOESN’T IT DO ….??

Excitement Challenge Being ‘on the edge’

•For over 50 years the main focus in schools has been on achieving ‘5 Good Passes’

•1951 ‘O levels’ introduced 5+ A to C Passes•1988 GCSE used 5+ A to C Passes

•1992 A* Grades awarded•2006 5+ A*CEM introduced

•2010 English Baccalaurate ‘appeared’•And what next ….??

•201X 5+ A*/A Passes

Raising the bar …. for some

Clearly this indicator is NOT RELEVANT to ALL pupils - but is highly so for some

The next chart shows WHY this is necessary – and WHICH PUPILS

will be involved

Over the last few years GCSE ‘success’ rates have risen dramaticallyOver the last few years GCSE ‘success’ rates have risen dramatically

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%


2004 2006 2008 2009 2010

7% 10%13% 21% 33%

26% 30% 36% 45% 57%

55% 60% 66% 72% 79%

81% 83% 85% 89% 93%

95% 96% 97% 97% 98%

‘Lower’ & ‘Average’

Groups have

improved rapidly.

Less opportunity for others to ‘do better’!

How do we continue to challenge?

35.935 .835 .735 .635 .535 .435 .335 .235 .135 .034 .934 .834 .734.634 .534 .434 .334 .234 .134 .033 .933 .833 .733 .633 .533.433 .333 .233 .133 .032 .932 .832 .732 .632 .532 .432 .332.232 .132 .031 .931 .831 .731 .631 .531 .431 .331 .231 .131.030 .930 .830 .730 .630 .530 .430.330 .230 .130 .029 .929 .829 .729 .629 .529 .429 .329 .229.129 .028 .928 .828 .728 .628 .528 .428 .328 .228 .128 .027.927 .827 .727 .627 .527 .427 .327 .227 .127 .026 .926 .826.726 .626 .526 .426 .326 .226 .126 .025 .925 .825 .725.625 .525 .425 .325 .225 .125 .024.924 .824 .724 .624 .524 .424 .324 .224 .124 .023 .923 .823.723 .623 .523 .423 .323 .223 .123 .022 .922 .822 .722 .622.522 .422 .322 .222 .122 .021 .921 .821 .721 .621 .521 .421.321 .221 .121 .020 .920 .820 .720 .620 .520 .420 .320 .220 .120 .019 .919 .819 .719 .619.519 .419 .319 .219 .119 .018 .918 .818 .718 .618 .518 .418.318 .218 .118 .017 .917 .817 .717 .617 .517 .417 .317 .217.117 .016 .916 .816 .716 .616 .516 .416 .316 .216 .116 .015.915 .815 .715 .615 .515 .415 .315.215 .115 .0

6500

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No'

s of

Pup



12 18 24 30 36

Low Below Avge Abv High

35.935 .835 .735 .635 .535 .435 .335 .235 .135 .034 .934 .834 .734.634 .534 .434 .334 .234 .134 .033 .933 .833 .733 .633 .533.433 .333 .233 .133 .032 .932 .832 .732 .632 .532 .432 .332.232 .132 .031 .931 .831 .731 .631 .531 .431 .331 .231 .131.030 .930 .830 .730 .630 .530 .430.330 .230 .130 .029 .929 .829 .729 .629 .529 .429 .329 .229.129 .028 .928 .828 .728 .628 .528 .428 .328 .228 .128 .027.927 .827 .727 .627 .527 .427 .327 .227 .127 .026 .926 .826.726 .626 .526 .426 .326 .226 .126 .025 .925 .825 .725.625 .525 .425 .325 .225 .125 .024.924 .824 .724 .624 .524 .424 .324 .224 .124 .023 .923 .823.723 .623 .523 .423 .323 .223 .123 .022 .922 .822 .722 .622.522 .422 .322 .222 .122 .021 .921 .821 .721 .621 .521 .421.321 .221 .121 .020 .920 .820 .720 .620 .520 .420 .320 .220 .120 .019 .919 .819 .719 .619.519 .419 .319 .219 .119 .018 .918 .818 .718 .618 .518 .418.318 .218 .118 .017 .917 .817 .717 .617 .517 .417 .317 .217.117 .016 .916 .816 .716 .616 .516 .416 .316 .216 .116 .015.915 .815 .715 .615 .515 .415 .315.215 .115 .0

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No'

s of

Pup



12 18 24 30 36

Low Below Avge Abv High

‘More Able’ ?

28.5+ Ks2 Points

and above

15.00 17.00 19.00 21.00 23.00 25.00 27.00 29.00 31.00 33.00 35.00

cvap2ap1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points Scores

for non-selective schools in 2008

Pupils’ Ks2 Points

Percentage

Pupils’ Key Stage 2 Points for GCSE 2010 classifying ‘More Able’ pupils

Pupils in ‘Above’ & ‘High’ Ks2 Groups: 40% in Non-

selective schools

32.532.432.332.232.132.031.931.831.731.631.531.431.3

32.532.432.332.232.132.031.931.831.731.631.531.431.3

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% A

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A*/

A P

asse

sGCSE 2010: 5+ A*/A Passes for 'More Able' Pupils

32.031.531.030.530.029.5

32.031.531.030.530.029.5

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Average Ks2 Points for 'More Able' Pupils

% a

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5+

A*/

A P

asse

s

01234567

Type

Comparing Schools' 5+ A*/A Outcomes

‘Unpack’ this group for analysis‘Unpack’ this group for analysis

The FIVE GROUP framework used for earlier GCSE Performance evaluations suggests a way ahead:

Create a FIVE GROUP framework for these ‘More Able’ Pupils

This provides ways of exploring how well ‘More Able’ pupils have done in individual schools and clusters

Here’s how it’s done ….

35.034.534.033.533.032.532.031.531.030.530.029.529.028.5

35.034.534.033.533.032.532.031.531.030.530.029.529.028.5

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Rankin

g o

f P

upil

s' K

s2 P

tsGrouping 'More Able' Pupils: 5 Groups based on Ks2 Pts

Creating a framework for Progress amongst ‘More Able’ pupils

Creating a framework for Progress amongst ‘More Able’ pupils

Group M1 M2 M3 M4 M5

Ks2 Pts 28.6 – 29.2

29.3 – 30.1

30.2 – 31.0

31.1 – 32.1

32.2 – 36.0

We can provide the numbers of pupils in each of these groups for YOUR SCHOOL’S last Y11 cohort from 2010.

You can also take this forward for your current Years 11 & 10 (with a bit of help from friends!)

What do we ‘expect’ from pupils like these?

How well did my school do? What are we looking for in 2011?

But it’s the PUPILS’ results that really matterBut it’s the PUPILS’ results that really matter

The next chart shows how strongly MABLE pupils’ ‘starting points’ are related to their

chances of achieving A*/A grades

We’ve shown this for

5+ A*/A grades

‘More Able’ Pupils achieving 5+ A*/A Passes‘More Able’ Pupils achieving 5+ A*/A Passes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5

5%10%

20%

33%

65%5+ A*/A Passes

‘More Able’ Pupils in your schools‘More Able’ Pupils in your schools

Last year (2010) you had 1750 pupils in Y11 – of these just over 1000 were identified as ‘More Able’

Of these 409 obtained 5+ A*/A Passes

How does this compare with national expectations?

Are we doing as well as we could – and where are the issues that need to be faced?

What’s it like in MY school

What happened in this Cluster in 2010?What happened in this Cluster in 2010?

1 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot

No’s 129 195 197 190 311 1022

5+A/A* 5% 10% 20% 33% 65%Result

s14 26 55 84 230 409

Expect

Difference + 8 + 6 + 16 + 21 + 28 +79

6 20

39 63 202 330

79 pupils (out of 1022) ‘better than expected’ +8%

Example of how this works for a schoolExample of how this works for a school

?? M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot

No’s 12 23 38 27 51 141

5+A/A* 5% 10% 20% 33% 65%Result

s0 2 6 3 26 37

Expect

Difference - 1 0 0 - 3 - 7 - 14

1 2 6 9 33 51

14 pupils (out of 141) ‘less than expected’ – 10%

Cluster schools’ PerformanceCluster schools’ Performance

No names – but this is what happened in 2010(Further information if you join the York Project!)

Over 10% MORE pupils gained 5+ A*/A than ‘expected’ 3 sch

About as many pupils gained 5+ A*/A ‘as expected’ 3 sch

More than 10% LESS pupils gained 5+ A*/A than ‘expected’ 1 sch

The actual results are: +23% +12% +11% +4% -2% -7% -11%

Which is which is obviously important – but confidential!

The next slides show how these frameworks can be used in YOUR school

The next slides show how these frameworks can be used in YOUR school

The York Project uses these for two purposes:

First - to REVIEW last year’s 5+ A*/A outcomes

Then – using Teacher Assessments of current Y11 pupils – to PREVIEW next year’s likely results

The latter actions can highlight issues to be addressed (for pupils, subject areas and teachers) while there is still

time to remedy areas indicating ‘underperformance’

Your school’s 5+ A*/A PassesYour school’s 5+ A*/A Passes

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot

No’s

5+A/A* 5% 10% 20% 33% 65%Result

s

Expect

Difference

Your school’s A*/A English PassesYour school’s A*/A English Passes

ENG M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot

No’s

A/A* 8% 15% 25% 33% 60%

Results

Expect

Difference

Your school’s A*/A Maths PassesYour school’s A*/A Maths Passes

MAT M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot

No’s

A*/A 7% 12% 25% 40% 66%

Expect

Difference

50403020100-10-20-30-40-50

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JVA Measure for each outcome for 'More Able' pupils

Ran

kin

g of

Sch

ool P

erfo

rman

ce

3+ A*/A5+ A*/A

A*/A EngA*/A MatA*/A Sci

JVA

JVA National Measure for 3+ A*/A 5+ A*/A & A*/A Eng Maths Sci

- Schools: + 10%

'Top' Quarter of

of Schools - 10%

'Bottom' Quarter

Gaining A*/A Passes ….what thenGaining A*/A Passes ….what then

This is obviously encouraging for pupils and also for their schools – but the implications for

students’future career trajectories suggest this has an even greater importance for the nation.

In 2008 some 1077 pupils from these schools went on to A-level studies. Just under 800 of

these went to Barton Peveril or Peter Symonds Colleges and just under half of these (341

students) had 5 or more A*/A Grades at GCSE

Gaining 3 A Level A*/A GradesGaining 3 A Level A*/A Grades

341 students who achieved 5+ A*/A GCSE Passes (2008 ) entered the local VI Form Colleges

103 of YOUR PUPILS achieved 3 A*/A Alevel Grades in 2010

Hampshire Colleges provide some of the largest numbers with 3 A*/A grades from ANY schools in the nation – more than schools like Eton and Charterhouse and better than many Grammars

This is one criterion for entry to ‘good’ Universities

Gaining 3 A Level A*/A GradesGaining 3 A Level A*/A Grades

PS & BP Colleges 339 with 3 A’s from 1011 entries

Eton College 133 with 3 A’s from 334 entries

99% of students who gained 3 A’s had achieved 5+ A*/A Grades at GCSE

Clearly – helping GCSE pupils achieve 5+ A*/A passes is a KEY factor for the rest of their lives

The vital importance of ‘More Able’ pupilsThe vital importance of ‘More Able’ pupils

The next steps in ‘Improvement’ are bound to include the outcomes of ‘More Able’ pupils

Expect much more emphasis on High Level outcomes

Very little has been done so far to prepare for this

Schools now have the opportunity of developing this work in partnership with the University of York

It offers exciting new ways of inspiring our young people

Professor David Jesson [email protected]


and opportunity


University of York

[email protected]


and opportunity


University of York

[email protected]

Maximising Pupils’ Performance Maximising Pupils’ Performance

Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’ How pupils’ data provides both challenge and...

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