HEaDROOM - Lichfields · 2016. 12. 19. · 2010, it has been used by developers in over 100...
Transcript of HEaDROOM - Lichfields · 2016. 12. 19. · 2010, it has been used by developers in over 100...
HEaDROOMObjective Assessments of Local Housing Needs
nlpplanning.com
The NPPF is a major opportunity for developers: local authorities must plan positively to meet objectively assessed needs in their areas. Councils are required to identify the scale and mix of housing that meets household and population projections, addresses the need for all types of housing and caters for housing demand.
The duty-to-cooperate also means that Councils must negotiate with their neighbours to meet requirements that cannot wholly be met within their areas.
This is a tough policy regime, way beyond that of PPS3. And the Inspectorate is taking its responsibility to examine for soundness seriously. But this is not a free lunch: where Councils are relying on inadequate evidence or are not planning positively to meet needs, it is up to land owners and developers to demonstrate this to Inspectors.
Figure 1 : The HEaDROOM framework
Where there is no up-to-date plan, developers can also support planning applications and appeals by putting forward their own evidence on objectively assessed needs for the purpose of testing whether a Council can demonstrate a five-year supply of deliverable housing sites.
HEaDROOM can help
HEaDROOM is Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners’ (NLP) bespoke framework for objectively assessing local housing requirements. Launched in July 2010, it has been used by developers in over 100 locations to support planning applications and appeals, and to accompany representations on Local Plan housing targets. It also has been used by Councils, which gives it wider credibility as an independent and objective piece of evidence. Fully updated to comply with the National Planning Practice Guidance - including integrating ‘Market Signals’ into the assessment - HEaDROOM provides a comprehensive approach to objectively assessing housing needs.
“To boost significantly the supply of housing, local planning authorities should use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing.“
NPPF para 47
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Housing FactorsSHMA estimates of need for all types of housing, including affordablePast delivery ratesRegeneration, renewal and replacementVacancy rates and second homes
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Economic FactorsCurrent employmentEmployment forecastsEconomic activity rates and unemploymentCommuting flowsHousing : jobs ratio
Demographic Factors• Natural change• Migration• Headship rates• Census 2011 / ONS and CLG
projections
Objectively Assessed Need for HousingBenchmark scenarios against historic targets if appropriate
Capacity, delivery and impacts• Environmental capacity• Infrastructure capacity• Land availability + trajectory• Development viability + market demand
• Cross -boundary unmet needs
Assess against Local Policies• Corporate objectives• Relevant local plans and
proposals• LEP priorities• Economic growth strategy• Spatial priorities and
settlement strategies
Assess against National Policy• Plan for Growth• Housing Strategy• NPPF
“Meet objectively assessed needs unless adverse impacts significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits”
Duty to cooperate• Approach to meeting
unmet needs
Infrastructure Needs• Infrastructure delivery plans
Benefits• Economic benefits (jobs, GVA, strategic) • Social benefits• Tax revenue + infrastructure funding
Evidence
POPGROUP modelling
Outputs and implications
Appraise against national and local policy
Objectively assess needs
Recommended Housing Target(Five-year housing requirement)
Apply through plan-making anddecision-taking
Reps and evidence to appeals and Local Plan Examinations
Planning appraisal of sites
Critique of Council SHMAsand evidence base
Evidence of need for five-year land supply
Market Signals• Land Prices• House Prices
•• Rents
•AffordabilityRate of Development
• Over crowding
HEaDROOM can help
of Local Plans have had to increase their housing targets in order to be found sound.
NLP Research ‘Objectively Speaking’ (April 2013)
44%
HEaDROOM
Figure 2 : HEaDROOM Graphical Outputs
Luton
Aylesbury Vale
Bedford
MidBedfordshire
Dacorum
Milton Keynes
NorthHertfordshire
St. Albans
SouthBedfordshire
WelwynHatfield
Stevenage
S
HEaDROOM: HEaDROOM:The objectively assessed housing requirement 2012 - 2032
Geographical Information Systems
1. Dwellings Internal Migration
Travel to Work Commuting
Constraints
Migration
2. Population
13,300 People
3. Jobs Supported
2,000 Additional Jobs Supported
Age Profile
8,100 Additional Homes Required to Accommodate
4. Household Change
Natural Change 1,100 Difference Net Migration 12,100 Total
4,800 1 Person
2,600 Couple
200 Family
1,000 SingleParent Family
-700 Family + Other Adult
100 Other
+Other
10,400 Domestic
1,700 International
18,200 Births
17,100 Deaths
RIP
GIS Reference: S:\CL13164 - Swale Core Strategy\CL13164 - SwaleCore Strategy - Constraints & Development Sites (01) (50k) - 10.12.2012
GIS13164-13MAr-
10.12.2012
Swale Borough Council
Constraints & Development Sites
Swale Core Strategy
Key
Swale Local AuthorityBoundary
EmploymentPermissions(11 and 12)
Mixed Use Allocation
Employment Allocation
AAP Allocation
Employment LandReview (sites)
SHLAA Site
Development Sites
ConstraintsAONB, SpecialLandscape Area, FloodZone 3, InternationalBiodiversity (and 400mbuffer) & UrbanExtension LandscapeStudy (low capacity)
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to and from Birmingham
CentralBedfordshire
NorthHertfordshire
LutonAylesbury Vale
Bedford
SouthCambridgeshire
EastHertfordshire
Dacorum
Huntingdonshire
MiltonKeynes
St.Albans
Barnet
Northampton
Brent
WelwynHatfield
Stevenage
Key
Internal migration flow (number of people), 2011
Other Local Authority
Source: Migration Statistics Unit, ONS, 2011(crown copyright)
Local authority with a migration in or out flow of 150 or more people with Luton, North Hertfordshire orCentral Bedfordshire
Luton, North Hertfordshire &Central Bedfordshire LocalAuthorities
150 - 300
301 - 600
601 - 1,000
>1,000
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-1,500
-1,250
-1,000
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
Eas
t H
amps
hire
Eas
tlei
gh
Fare
ham
Gos
port
Hav
ant
New
For
est
Por
tsm
outh
Sou
tham
pton
Test
Val
ley
Win
ches
ter
Mig
rati
on (
Per
sons
)
-1,500
-1,250
-1,000
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
Overall Net Migration
Net domestic Migration
Net International Migration NB - not avaliable 2010/11
“The studies have been extremely helpful to us in providing robust and objective housing requirements. NLP’s HEaDROOM framework has helped Taylor Wimpey UK to stay ahead of the field when it comes to delivering high quality new homes in an era of localism.”
Andrew Thorley, Taylor Wimpey UK Limited
• Tried and tested at examination and appeal.
• Industry-standard POPGROUP demographic modelling software, drawing on relevant ONS and CLG assumptions.
• Intelligent application of the latest CLG 2011-based Interim Household Projections.
• Flex all the key assumptions to understand implications of alternative scenarios.
• Consistent with the ‘What Homes Where’ toolkit and credible with public and private sectors.
• In-house planning, economic and demographic expertise - with access to all relevant datasets - means NLP can fully review and critique Councils’ evidence base and approach.
• Transparent presentation of input assumptions and outputs.
• Not just number-crunching: looks beyond demographics to consider housing and economic drivers of demand. Tests need alongside supply-side capacity, delivery and policy factors.
• Outputs at sub-region, local and settlement-specific levels.
• Delivered by NLP without the need for external sub-contractors, giving full control over modelling inputs and assumptions for improved efficiency and effective reporting.
• A dedicated team of 15 consultants with HEaDROOM experience provides strength in depth across our offices.
• Results of analysis presented clearly through technical reports, supporting charts and infographics (see Figure 2).
Why HEaDROOM?
Barratt Developments • Bellway Homes • Berkeley • Bloor Homes • Bovis CALA Homes • Commercial Estates Group • Crest Nicholson • Croudace Fairview • Gladman Developments • HBF • Mariposa Investments • Miller Homes • Morris Homes • Northumberland Estates • Peel Holdings Persimmon • Portfutures • Redrow • RLW Estates • Storey • Taylor Wimpey Thakeham Homes • Theakston Estates • Village Developments
Current HEaDROOM Clients
Contact Us
Cardiff
Gareth Williams [email protected] 029 2043 5880
Leeds
Justin Gartland [email protected] 0113 397 1397
London
Matthew Spry [email protected] 020 7837 4477
Manchester
Michael Watts [email protected] 0161 837 6130
Newcastle
Chris Harrison [email protected] 0191 261 5685
This publication has been written in general terms and cannot be relied on to cover specific situations. We recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. NLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication.Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners is the trading name of Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Limited. Registered in England, no.2778116. Registered office: 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL© Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2013. All rights reserved.
nlpplanning.com
Newcastle: Bellway and The Northumberland Estates
NLP established the rate of economic and housing growth for which Newcastle should plan through the Core Strategy in order to stabilise and reverse the trends of out migration by working age families. The analysis was used to make the case for Green Belt release in the Core Strategy.
Cornwall: Commercial Estates Group
NLP undertook an assessment of the housing requirement contained within the emerging Local Plan. This considered the robustness of the evidence that underpinned the housing requirement, the extent to which it aligned with employment targets and the NPPF. It found that the Council’s proposed housing requirement fails to reflect future demand and recommended that a prompt review should be undertaken.
Leeds: Barratt Homes
NLP’s report challenged the attempt by Leeds City Council to reduce its housing requirement, concluding that this would fall well short of needs, leading to housing market pressure and out-migration. The evidence successfully supported the release of allocated greenfield sites at public inquiry.
Barton Farm, Winchester: CALA Homes
NLP’s study on the need for housing in Winchester supported representations to the emerging Core Strategy and was a critical component of the evidence given to the successful appeal in respect of the 2000-dwelling Barton Farm proposal. The NLP work directly shaped the City Council’s Technical Evidence on defining its proposed local housing target.
Central Lancashire: Taylor Wimpey
NLP’s submission to the Core Strategy Examination highlighted the absence of a robust evidence base to underpin the councils’ reduction to their housing target. As a result, the Inspector identified the plan as being at risk of ‘unsoundness’. The councils subsequently increased the target.
West Northamptonshire: Portfutures Ltd
NLP’s critique and analysis of the sub-region’s housing need highlighted significant concerns in the West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit’s approach to their housing target. This led to the Inspector conclusion that the JPU needed to undertake an NPPF compliant housing needs study.
Warrington: Peel Holdings
The NLP report demonstrated the adverse impacts of under-providing the homes necessary to facilitate economic growth in the Borough, which in recent years has been one of the driving forces of the North West economy.
South Worcestershire: Miller Strategic Land
NLP reviewed future housing needs and critiqued the methodology adopted throughout the preparation and examination of the South Worcestershire Development Plan. NLP’s representations were a primary contributing factor to the Inspector’s findings that the housing requirement was insufficient to meet housing and economic needs. The Inspector endorsed NLP’s approach stating that “NLP’s methodology is generally sound”.
“The most significant technical challenge came from NLP... [who] submitted a robust critique of the [Plan’s] approach. NLP presents a strong argument that is underpinned with a robust analysis of the demographic evidence [that] help clarify a number of issues.”
Report to South Worcestershire Development Plan (2012)
Horsham: Berkeley Strategic
NLP’s assessment of the local need for housing in Horsham supported representations to the ‘How much housing does Horsham District need?’ consultation. The assessment included a full critique of the Council’s SHMA. NLP’s report was itself peer reviewed on behalf of the Council, with several of NLP’s conclusions taken on as recommendations within that review.
North Tyneside: Bellway Homes
NLP supported a successful planning appeal for 366 executive houses at Whitehouse Farm, North Tyneside. The Report tested the Council’s assumptions and demonstrated that the draft Core Strategy and RS figure were not sufficient to meet needs or achieve economic objectives. The Inspector’s report specifically referenced HEaDROOM as adding weight to the appellant’s case.
“NLP’s evidence does strongly suggest the need for increased growth and therefore adds to the weight of the appellant’s housing case.”
Planning Inspector (May 2013)
HEaDROOMCase Studies