Hay Market Situation in Western States

Seth Hoyt, The Hoyt Report

Overview of 2013

CA Hay Balance Sheet – 2013

Hay Supplies (my estimates)

Carry-in to 2013 1,250,000 tonsAlfalfa/other hay production 8,174,000 tons Alfalfa hay in-shipments 650,000 tons

Total Supplies - 10,074,000 tons

Hay Usage (my estimates)Dairy cows 3,050,000 tonsMilk repl heifers +500 lbs. 625,000 tonsMilk repl heifers -500 lbs. 175,000 tonsExports 1,750,000 tonsHorses 1,950,000 tonsFed cattle 300,000 tonsBeef cows, background lots 600,000 tonsauction yards, Sheep, and others.

Total Usage - 8,450,000 tons

Dec. 1, 2013 CA Hay Stocks - 1,624,000 tons (My Est.)

Dec. 1, 2012 CA Hay Stocks - 1,900,000 tons (USDA)

Dec. 1, 2011 CA Hay Stocks - 1,640,000 tons (USDA)

Hay Exports

Export Hay Demand

• Export sources say alfalfa exports to China should be strong again in 2013

• It looks like a mixed bag on exports to other countries, UAE, Japan, etc.

• Look for CA ports to outpace the PNW in 2014 but not on the near term.

Dairy Demand and Hay Prices

• Early top quality alfalfa hay in the So. CA desert should find good demand

---Corn prices will hold a lid on hay prices in the west but another year of

--Drought would be a market changer--Early Estimate on prices in the west

• Early Supreme alfalfa hay in central CA

Merry Christmas and

the very best in 2014