Harvard Nexus Climate and Health Feb 2021.ppt - Compatibility … · 2021. 3. 8. · Microsoft...
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1 Connecting Air Quality Research, Risk Assessment and Policy: U.S. Air Quality Management John Vandenberg, PhD Director Health and Environmental Effects Assessment Division Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 [email protected] Disclaimer: These views are those of the author and do not represent US EPA policy.
Transcript of Harvard Nexus Climate and Health Feb 2021.ppt - Compatibility … · 2021. 3. 8. · Microsoft...
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Connecting Air Quality Research, Risk Assessment and Policy:
U.S. Air Quality Management
John Vandenberg, PhD
Director
Health and Environmental Effects Assessment Division
Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Disclaimer: These views are those of the author and do not represent US EPA policy.
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Goal: Air Quality Standards
Environmental Condition:Monitoring/ModelingEmissions Inventory
Enforcement/Compliance
State Planning:Stationary and Mobile
Sources
Track Progress
Framework for Air Quality Management
Effects/Exposure Research
Atmos Sciences/Engineering Research
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Approaches to Air Quality Management
1. Ambient Standards (Criteria Air Pollutants)
2. Emission Standards (Hazardous Air Pollutants)
3.Market-Based(Acidification and Eutrophication: another day)
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“Criteria” Air Pollutants
• 6 criteria pollutants:
– Ground-level = tropospheric ozone (O3)
– Particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10)
– Lead (Pb)
– Sulfur dioxide (SO2)
– Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
– Carbon monoxide (CO)
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Number of People Living in Areas with Air Quality Concentrations Above the Level of the Primary National
Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in 2019
http://epa.gov/airtrends/aqtrends.html
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Approach for Evaluation of the Scientific Evidence
• Organize relevant literature for broad outcome categories
• Evaluate studies, characterize results, extract relevant data
• Integrate evidence across disciplines for outcome categories
• Develop health and welfare causality determinations using established framework described in the Preamble
• Synthesize evidence for populations potentially at increased risk (health only)
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Illustrative Example: Evidence Integration for Health
Air Pollution Health Effects Pyramid
Severity ofeffect
proportion of population affected
Mortality
Hospitaladmissions
Emergency room visitsPhysician office visits
Reduced physical performanceMedication use
Respiratory symptomsImpaired lung function
Sub-clinical (subtle) effects
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Figure 3-1 Potential biological pathways for respiratory effects following short-term ozone exposure.
EPA/600/R 19/093April 2020www.epa.gov/isa
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Figure ES-3 Cross-study comparisons of mean decrements in ozone-induced forced expiratory volume in 1 second(FEV1) in young, healthy adults following 6.6 hours of exposure to ozone.
EPA/600/R 19/093April 2020www.epa.gov/isa
Percent increase in respiratory-related hospital admission (HA) and emergency
department (ED) visits
Figure 6-19, page 6-153 Ozone ISA 2013 http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/recordisplay.cfm?deid=247492
Black: all yearRed: summer onlyBlue: winter only
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Figure ES-2 Causality determinations for health effects of short- and long-term exposure to ozone.
EPA/600/R 19/093April 23, 2020www.epa.gov/isa
• Ozone primary standard: Decision in October 2015 to lower standard level from 0.075 ppm to 0.070 ppm– Secondary standard set equal to the Primary std.
• Final decision December 2020– Retain 2015 standards
Ozone NAAQS
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Summary: Criteria Air Pollutants
• Goal: National Ambient Air Quality Standards
• Management: ambient standards set to protect with an adequate margin of safety– Numerous and diverse stationary and mobile sources– Cost not considered in setting standards– Cost can be considered in implementing control programs
• States responsible to develop State Implementation Plans: many tools in the toolbox
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Approach 2
Emission Standards:Hazardous Air Pollutants
(aka Air Toxics)
Clean Air Act
• Hazardous air pollutants:– “increase in mortality or serious irreversible or
reversible, incapacitating illness”
• List Pollutants:– “for which the Administrator intends to
develop emissions standards”
• Set Standards:– “to protect public health with an ample margin
of safety”
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The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 -List of Hazardous Air Pollutants
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Numerous Biologic EndpointsNumerous Biologic Endpoints
• Mutations
• DNA damage
• Etc.
• Reproductive,
• developmental, neurological disorders
• Immunologic effects
• Acute effects (edema, CNS depression)
• Various other systemic effects (e.g., liver, kidney, lung damage)
Non-Cancer Cancer
Multiple Adverse Endpoints
Uncontrolled Growth of Cells
NASA Graphic
Inte
ract
ion
with
H
AP
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Planning and ScopingExposure AssessmentExposure Assessment Toxicity Assessment
Risk Characterization
Quantitative and Qualitative Expressions of Risk/Uncertainty
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
Measures of Exposure
CHEMICALCONCENTRATIONS
Air, Soil, Water, Food(monitor/model)
Air Toxics Risk Assessment Process
Dose/ Response
Assessment
Y
X
Chemical Release SOURCES
FATE AND TRANSPORT ANALYSISHazard Identification
EXPOSURE information
DOSE/RESPONSE information
SOURCE IDENTIFICATION
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Risk isacceptable withample margin
No furtheraction needed
Risk
1x10-6
Risk may beAcceptable
Look at Health Issues
Then consider costs/technical feasibilitybefore deciding if
emissions reductionsare needed
Risk is unacceptable
Take actionto reduce risks
Can only consider health
1x10-4
Risk Ranges
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Summary: Hazardous Air Pollutants
• Pollutants listed by Congress• Source categories• National Emission Standards for Hazardous
Air Pollutants (NESHAP) • Apply technology (e.g., limit to lb/yr)
– Maximum Achievable Control Technology• Evaluate residual risks (e.g., limit risks)
– Ample margin of safety
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“Across the Federal government, the rules with the highest estimated benefits as well as the highest estimated costs come from the Environmental Protection Agency and in particular its Office of Air and Radiation. Specifically, EPA rules account for 71 percent to 80 percent of the monetized benefits and 55 percent to 64 percent of the monetized costs. Of these, rules that have a significant aim to improve air quality account for over 95 percent of the benefits of EPA rules…. Importantly, the large estimated benefits of EPA rules issued pursuant to the CAA are mostly attributable to the reduction in public exposure to fine particulate matter (referred to in many contexts as PM2.5). (emphasis added)
2017 Report to Congress on the Benefits and Costs of Federal Regulations and Agency Compliance with
the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019-CATS-5885-REV_DOC-2017Cost_BenefitReport11_18_2019.docx.pdf
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Connecting Air Quality Research, Risk Assessment and Policy:
U.S. Air Quality Management
John Vandenberg, PhD
Director
Health and Environmental Effects Assessment Division
Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
