HARNESSING THE FUTURE:A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON SOCIAL PROTECTION

DEVELOPMENT IN EAST AFRICA

Alexander Pick, OECD Development Centre

Food Crisis Prevention Network,13 December 2016

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Social protection at the heart of Africa’s development strategy (Agenda 2063) •

• As of today, there has been a major expansion of social protection although large gaps in coverage remain

• Looking forward, several emerging trends are likely to bring additional threats to human well-being and confront Africa’s vision for social protection

• Identifying possible futures and exploring new paths for action is essential for tackling today’s social protection challenges and preparing for those of tomorrow

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Background

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• What will be the demographic, environmental, social and economic trends over the next 50 years in East Africa?

• How will these trends affect the evolving needs and conditions for social protection in the region?

• How can countries in the region adapt to these challenges while achieving Africa’s vision for social protection?

• How can social protection influence key trends?

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Key questions

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• UN projections for population growth– Up to 2100, most reliable over 30-40 years– Reliant on census data– Includes international migration

• UN projections for urbanisation– Up to 2050– Beware definitional problems

• Health projections

• Climate models

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Building a long-term projection – Demographic and environmental trends

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• Estimate long-term productivity growth• Project gross national income, reflecting productivity and

population growth

• A projection is not a forecast but a means of seeing how key variables interact within a coherent and plausible framework

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Building a long-term projection – Economic and social trends

Project long-term poverty rates assuming current level of inequality

Project structural change and implications for structure of employment

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Rapid population growth2015 2065

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Rapid urbanisation with rural dominance

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Strong prospects for economic growth

Average annual and per capita GDP growth, 2015-

2065

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Slow structural change, persistent rural and informal employment

Employment by sector of new labour force entrants, 2015-2065

Composition of output, 2000, 2010 & 2065

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Poverty eradication will remain a daunting challenge

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Seven grand challenges for social protection in East Africa:

1. Solving the last mile problem2. Promoting social insurance in a context of high

informality3. Confronting the employment challenge 4. Rapid urbanisation5. Climate change6. Increasing financing for social protection7. Harnessing the demographic dividend

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The way forward

THANK YOU

Alexander PICKFiscal Economist, Social Protection TeamOECD Development Centrealexander.pick@oecd.org+33 1 45 24 87 27