Han eldery overview 3 24-2011

Elderly Housing Demographic Trends

City of Franklin & Simpson County

Prepared for:Franklin Affordable Housing, Inc.

February 1st 2012

• Positive elderly population growth for the City of Franklin and Simpson County—despite overall population declines

• Growth segments are younger elderly 55 to 59 and 60 to 64 years of age (Franklin), and 55 to 59 and 65 to 74 in Simpson County

• Elderly growth is in City of Franklin is clustered in the Hillside area

• The growth of the Hillside’s 75 to 84 age cohort is an indicator that the population is aging in-place. The same trend is true in Simpson County

• The City of Franklin is unique in that it has key retail and services that are easily accessible—and this is a competitive advantage when compared to other riverfront cities in the immediate area.

• This includes employment and purchasing of goods and services.

• The “university site” located in Simpson County has a similar cluster of retail and services, and is located near Northern Kentucky University.

• Elderly developments near college campuses increase marketability and market rents.

Key Demographic Trends

2Consulting Team: Merusi Partners, Inc.February 1st 2012

• Niche and market the development—independent senior households 55-64 and 65-74 years of age.

• “Younger” seniors will have cars and parking must be factored into planning (at least 1:1)• Mini-rise elevator buildings would be recommended to avoid accessibility issues which could

lead to vacancy problems during lease-up and in the future• Both sites have abundant amenities in close proximity to the sites• Work with local transit to connect development to the sites • Do not re-create commercial common space that is not leasable, create common area space

that is flexible and used for on-site visits by doctors, etc. • Scale: 45 to 65 units per phase (30+ ACC units). Build-out the City site, and do not phase, too

much disruption for neighbors and residents.• Development scale may be too large for a 9% LIHTC allocation—typical KHC 9% development

15 to 25 units.• Development scale may be more in line for a 4% LIHTC bond development. The only

drawback with this is less equity.

Development Trends


City of Franklin Overview• Use FY 2000 Census and FY 2010

Census to compare elderly population trends

• Elderly growth trends were compared by age cohort

• Compare City of Franklin by Basin and Hillside

• Basin Area Census Tracts: 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, and 506

• Hillside Area Census Tracts: 524 and 525

• Hillside Area includes all of Census Tracts 524 and 525


Franklin Demographic TrendsTotal elderly population in the City of Franklin FY 2010 is estimated to be 3,545

and this is an increased of 291 persons from FY 2000

Source: 2000 Census and 2010 Census


3,545

3,254

3,100

3,150

3,200

3,250

3,300

3,350

3,400

3,450

3,500

3,550

3,600

FY 2010 FY 2000

Year

To

tal E

lder

ly P

op

ula

tio

n

Series1

Franklin Demographic TrendsThe growth segments for Franklin’s elderly population are 55 to 59 and 60 to 64



942

743

1010

696

154

716

622

1019

649

248

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85+ years

Age Cohort

To

tal P

op

ula

tio

n

FY 2010

FY 2000

Franklin Demographic TrendsThe 55 to 59 and 60 to 64 years of age make-up 47.5% of the City’s elderly population

Source: FY 2010 Census


26.57%

20.96%28.49%

19.63%

4.34%

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 74 years

75 to 84 years

85 years and over

Franklin Demographic Trends

*includes all of Census Tracts 524 and 525 Source 2000 and 2010 Census

FY 2000-2010 elderly population changes are in the Hillside 60 to 64 and 75 to 84 years of age. This seems to be an indicator that the elderly population in the Hillside area is aging in-place


125

-14

-53

73

-20

131

208

8

241

104

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over

Age Cohort

2000

-201

0 P

op

ula

tio

n C

HG

.

Basin

Hillside

Simpson County and City of Franklin

• FY 2000-FY 2010 demographic analysis

• City of Franklin Area and Simpson County

• Elderly population defined as 55+ years of age

• Total Elderly population change by City of Franklin and Simpson County

• Total Elderly population change by age cohort City of Franklin and Simpson County


Simpson County Demographic TrendsTotal elderly population in Simpson County FY 2010 is estimated to be 20,549

and this is an increased of 1,969 persons from FY 2000



20,549

18,580

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

19,500

20,000

20,500

21,000

FY 2010 FY 2000

Year

To

tal E

lder

ly P

op

ula

tio

n

Series1

Simpson County Elderly IndicatorsThe elderly growth segments for Simpson County’s are 55 to 59, 75 to 84, and 85+

Source: 2000 and 2010 Census


5,454

3,927

5,681

4,131

1,356

3,988

3,427

5,974

3,945

1,246

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


Age Cohort

To

tal P

op

ula

tio

n

FY 2010

FY 2000

Simpson County and City of Franklin 2000-10 Elderly Population Change

The City and County 200-2010 growth trends both point to a younger senior demographic


1,240

379

-284

139

204226

121

-9

47

-94

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400


Age Cohort

Po

pu

lati

on

Ch

ang

e

Campbell County

Newport

Simpson County Elderly Indicators

13Consulting Team: Merusi Partners, Inc.February 1st 2012Source: 2010 Census

The county’s elderly population is clustered in the 55 to 59 and 65 to 74 age cohort

26.54%

19.11%

27.65%

20.10%

6.60%

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 74 years

75 to 84 years

85 years and over

Han eldery overview 3 24-2011

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