Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012...

54
Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message Wednesday 30 th January 2013 Commercial Property Auction Update CBRE | Page 1

Transcript of Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012...

Page 1: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Hammering Home the CBRE Auction MessageWednesday 30th January 2013

Commercial Property Auction Update

CBRE | Page 1

Page 2: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

CBRE | Page 2

Page 3: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Contents

� Auction market overview – what happened in 2012?

� What’s selling well?

� What’s not selling well?

CBRE | Page 3

� The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

� Predictions for 2013

� Conclusion

Page 4: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Size of the Commercial Auction Market

2012 £1,024,000,000

(Average lot size £221,000)

CBRE | Page 4

2011 £1,077,000,000

(Average lot size £223,000)

Source: Essential Information Group

Page 5: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

The Top 3 Auctioneers

2012 £575,748,850 raised

2011 £528,330,550 raised

CBRE | Page 5

2012 78.4% success rate

2011 79.5% success rate

Source: Essential Information Group

Page 6: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

The Top 3 Auctioneers - Lots Offered/Sold

2012 1,312 lots offered under the hammer

(17 Auctions)

2011 1,056 lots offered under the hammer

(11 Auctions)

CBRE | Page 6

(11 Auctions)

2012 1,028 lots sold under Auction Contract

2011 840 lots sold under Auction Contract

Source: Essential Information Group

Page 7: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

The Top 3 Auctioneers - Lot Size

2012 Average lot size £566,125

CBRE | Page 7

2011 Average lot size £628,965

Source: Essential Information Group

Page 8: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

The Top 3 Auctioneers - 2012 vs 2011

Properties offered

Success rates

CBRE | Page 8

Amount raised

Average lot size

Page 9: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Sector Favourites

2011 % Sold 2012 % Sold 2012Value

Commercial Ground Rents 76.3% 88.5% (+12.2%) £9.2m

Banks 74.5% 75.2% (+0.7%) £76.9m

Retail 71.7% 71.8% (+0.1%) £343.9m

CBRE | Page 9

Industrial 68.7% 68.6% (-0.1%) £130.4m

Offices 70.1% 68.1% (-2%) £103.9m

Public House 78.5% 66.1% (-12.4%) £41.7m

Leisure 64.1% 63.1% (-1%) £92.1m

Source: Essential Information Group

Page 10: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Average Yield (Top 3 Auctioneers)

2011 2012

Retail 8.49% 8.64%

Office 14.34% 15.51%

Industrial 11.65% 12.38%

CBRE | Page 10

Leisure 9.42% 10.46%

Source: Essential Information Group

Page 11: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Regional Hotspots

Region Raised % Sold

North-West Home Counties £123,681,200 84.6%

London £152,615,496 82.8%

South-West £92,878,720 82.0%

East Anglia £27,210,300 75.8%

South-East Home Counties £201,946,652 75.6%

West Midlands £77,232,920 74.6%

CBRE | Page 11

West Midlands £77,232,920 74.6%

Wales £41,441,361 74.0%

Yorkshire and The Humber £70,283,299 72.4%

East Midlands £67,954,550 71.6%

North-West £124,178,631 71.1%

North-East £24,734,605 70.9%

Northern Ireland £2,025,750 60.3%

Scotland £24,002,949 52.0%

Page 12: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

What’s Selling Well?

� Defensive Properties

� Correctly priced High Yielding Asset Management Properties

� Committed Vendors

CBRE | Page 12

� Committed Vendors

� Good Locations

� Smaller lot sizes

Page 13: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

What’s Not Selling Well?

� Poor locations

� Over rented

� Weak re-letting potential

CBRE | Page 13

� Weak re-letting potential

� Little or no alternative use potential

� Un-motivated vendors

Page 14: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

The Good

CBRE | Page 14

The Good

Page 15: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Classic Location

Guide Price £700,000/£750,000

CBRE | Page 15

Sale Price £920,000 (4.9%)

186 Earl’s Court Road, London, SW5

Page 16: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Classic Bank Investment

Guide Price £500,000/£550,000

CBRE | Page 16

Sale Price £640,000 (4.4%)

23 High Street, Teddington, Middlesex

Page 17: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Classic Trophy Building

Guide Price £3,600,000/£3,800,000

CBRE | Page 17

Sale Price £4,310,000 (4.4%)

29/30 High Street, Windsor, Berkshire

Page 18: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Classic Asset Management Potential

Guide Price £1,200,000

CBRE | Page 18

Sale Price £1,540,000 (6.15%)

Waterside Business Centre, Isleworth, Middlesex

Page 19: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Classic Alternative Use Potential

Guide Price£1,200,000 (£70 psf CV)

CBRE | Page 19

Sale Price £3,760,000 (£200 psf CV)

272/276 Bath Road, Heathrow

Page 20: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Classic Ground Rent

Guide Price£1,000,000 +

CBRE | Page 20

Sale Price £1,195,000 (4.72%)

Wedgewood Way, Pin Green Industrial Estate,

Stevenage

Page 21: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

The Bad

CBRE | Page 21

The Bad

Page 22: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Vacant Properties

Sold £1,260,000

34,700 sq ft

CBRE | Page 22

34,700 sq ft

£36 psf CV

Tolpits Lane, Rickmansworth

Page 23: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Vacant Properties

Sold £705,000

46,565 sq ft

CBRE | Page 23

46,565 sq ft

£15 psf CV

235 Ampthill Road, Bedford

Page 24: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Vacant Properties

Sold £355,000

41,870 sq ft

CBRE | Page 24

41,870 sq ft

£8.50 psf CV

Northshore House, Dundee

Page 25: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Vacant Properties

Sold £137,500

CBRE | Page 25

Sold £137,500

33 Bridge Street, Evesham

Page 26: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Properties let to “?” covenants

� LA Leisure Ltd (t/a LA Fitness)

� 35 years from June 2006 (no breaks)

� RPI linked rent reviews

Hove

Leeds

CBRE | Page 26

� RPI linked rent reviews

� Lot sizes £650,000 - £1,700,000

� All Sold Average Yield 13.08%Lincoln

Guildford

Page 27: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Properties in Difficult Locations

Guide Price£2,000,000 (18.5%)

CBRE | Page 27

Sale Price £2,430,000 (15.2%)

Sherborne Square Shopping Centre, Huyton,

Liverpool

Page 28: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

“High Risk” Properties

Guide Price: £800,000/£900,000

CBRE | Page 28

Sale Price £920,000 (43%) (£27.50 psf CV)

35-37 Colston Avenue, Bristol

Page 29: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

“High Risk” Properties

Guide Price: £1,350,000/£1,400,000

CBRE | Page 29

Sale Price £1,200,000 (14.96%) (£12.40 psf CV)

15 Windover Road, Huntingdon

Page 30: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Challenging Locations

Sold 2004 - £1,680,000 (4.95%)Sold 2006 - £1,940,000 (4.29%)

CBRE | Page 30

Unsold 2012 - £820,000 (10.1%)

Sold 2013 - £790,000 (10.5%)

Oxford Street, Bolton

Page 31: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

The Ugly

CBRE | Page 31

The Ugly

Page 32: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Challenging Locations

Unsold £545,000

CBRE | Page 32

(14%)

58/68 Channel Street, Galashiels

Page 33: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Challenging Locations

Unsold £675,000

CBRE | Page 33

(7.2%)

Centre Court, Brookfield, Middlesbrough

Page 34: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Sector Issues!

Unsold £650,000

CBRE | Page 34

(9.5%)

Stanley Medical Centre, Stanley, Liverpool

Page 35: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Mixed Issues!

Unsold £1,700,000

CBRE | Page 35

(14.1%)

Olympia House, Beeston, Leeds

Page 36: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Mixed Issues!

Unsold £850,000

21,000 sq ft

CBRE | Page 36

21,000 sq ft

(11.4% / £40 psf)

Shaw Lane Industrial Estate, Doncaster

Page 37: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Mixed Issues!

Unsold £1,200,000

CBRE | Page 37

(19.5%)

Glydegate Square, Bradford

Page 38: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Increasing Risk Aversion & Polarisation

Predictions for 2013

CBRE | Page 38

Polarisation

Page 39: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Further Valuation Adjustments for Secondary and Tertiary Stock

Predictions for 2013

CBRE | Page 39

Secondary and Tertiary Stock

Page 40: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Lenders to be more Proactive about Property Lending

Predictions for 2013

CBRE | Page 40

about Property Lending

Page 41: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Continuing Good Demand for Prime Properties

Predictions for 2013

CBRE | Page 41

Prime Properties

Page 42: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Excellent Buying Opportunities for those with Knowledge & Skill

Predictions for 2013

CBRE | Page 42

those with Knowledge & Skill

Page 43: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Conclusion

CBRE | Page 43

Conclusion

Page 44: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Prime end of market doing well

CBRE | Page 44

Page 45: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Increased momentum for correctly priced asset management stock

CBRE | Page 45

priced asset management stock

Page 46: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Receivership Sales up 50% in 2012

CBRE | Page 46

Receivership Sales up 50% in 2012

Page 47: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Private Property Company sales up 25% in 2012

CBRE | Page 47

up 25% in 2012

Page 48: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Private Individual sales down 10% in 2012

CBRE | Page 48

in 2012

Page 49: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

30% of our buyers have never bought before at Auction

CBRE | Page 49

bought before at Auction

Page 50: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

75% of our buyers are cash buyers; 25% have funding in

CBRE | Page 50

buyers; 25% have funding in place

Page 51: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Increasing number of long established investors returning

CBRE | Page 51

established investors returning to the market

Page 52: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Historic Valuations are just that –HISTORIC!

CBRE | Page 52

HISTORIC!

Page 53: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

PRICING IS ABSOLUTELY KEY!

CBRE | Page 53

PRICING IS ABSOLUTELY KEY!

Page 54: Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012 £1,024,000,000 (Average lot size £221,000) CBRE | Page 4 2011 £1,077,000,000 (Average lot

Key CBRE Auction Dates

Auction Date

Wednesday 27th February 2013

Wednesday 22nd May 2013

Monday 8th July 2013

Deadline for Entries

Books Closed

Friday 19th April 2013

Friday 31st May 2013

CBRE | Page 54

Monday 8th July 2013

Tuesday 15th October 2013

Wednesday 4th December 2013

Friday 31st May 2013

Friday 13th September 2013

Friday 1st November 2013