Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012...
Transcript of Hammering Home the CBRE Auction Message · Size of the Commercial Auction Market 2012...
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Hammering Home the CBRE Auction MessageWednesday 30th January 2013
Commercial Property Auction Update
CBRE | Page 1
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CBRE | Page 2
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Contents
� Auction market overview – what happened in 2012?
� What’s selling well?
� What’s not selling well?
CBRE | Page 3
� The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
� Predictions for 2013
� Conclusion
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Size of the Commercial Auction Market
2012 £1,024,000,000
(Average lot size £221,000)
CBRE | Page 4
2011 £1,077,000,000
(Average lot size £223,000)
Source: Essential Information Group
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The Top 3 Auctioneers
2012 £575,748,850 raised
2011 £528,330,550 raised
CBRE | Page 5
2012 78.4% success rate
2011 79.5% success rate
Source: Essential Information Group
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The Top 3 Auctioneers - Lots Offered/Sold
2012 1,312 lots offered under the hammer
(17 Auctions)
2011 1,056 lots offered under the hammer
(11 Auctions)
CBRE | Page 6
(11 Auctions)
2012 1,028 lots sold under Auction Contract
2011 840 lots sold under Auction Contract
Source: Essential Information Group
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The Top 3 Auctioneers - Lot Size
2012 Average lot size £566,125
CBRE | Page 7
2011 Average lot size £628,965
Source: Essential Information Group
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The Top 3 Auctioneers - 2012 vs 2011
Properties offered
Success rates
CBRE | Page 8
Amount raised
Average lot size
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Sector Favourites
2011 % Sold 2012 % Sold 2012Value
Commercial Ground Rents 76.3% 88.5% (+12.2%) £9.2m
Banks 74.5% 75.2% (+0.7%) £76.9m
Retail 71.7% 71.8% (+0.1%) £343.9m
CBRE | Page 9
Industrial 68.7% 68.6% (-0.1%) £130.4m
Offices 70.1% 68.1% (-2%) £103.9m
Public House 78.5% 66.1% (-12.4%) £41.7m
Leisure 64.1% 63.1% (-1%) £92.1m
Source: Essential Information Group
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Average Yield (Top 3 Auctioneers)
2011 2012
Retail 8.49% 8.64%
Office 14.34% 15.51%
Industrial 11.65% 12.38%
CBRE | Page 10
Leisure 9.42% 10.46%
Source: Essential Information Group
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Regional Hotspots
Region Raised % Sold
North-West Home Counties £123,681,200 84.6%
London £152,615,496 82.8%
South-West £92,878,720 82.0%
East Anglia £27,210,300 75.8%
South-East Home Counties £201,946,652 75.6%
West Midlands £77,232,920 74.6%
CBRE | Page 11
West Midlands £77,232,920 74.6%
Wales £41,441,361 74.0%
Yorkshire and The Humber £70,283,299 72.4%
East Midlands £67,954,550 71.6%
North-West £124,178,631 71.1%
North-East £24,734,605 70.9%
Northern Ireland £2,025,750 60.3%
Scotland £24,002,949 52.0%
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What’s Selling Well?
� Defensive Properties
� Correctly priced High Yielding Asset Management Properties
� Committed Vendors
CBRE | Page 12
� Committed Vendors
� Good Locations
� Smaller lot sizes
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What’s Not Selling Well?
� Poor locations
� Over rented
� Weak re-letting potential
CBRE | Page 13
� Weak re-letting potential
� Little or no alternative use potential
� Un-motivated vendors
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The Good
CBRE | Page 14
The Good
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Classic Location
Guide Price £700,000/£750,000
CBRE | Page 15
Sale Price £920,000 (4.9%)
186 Earl’s Court Road, London, SW5
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Classic Bank Investment
Guide Price £500,000/£550,000
CBRE | Page 16
Sale Price £640,000 (4.4%)
23 High Street, Teddington, Middlesex
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Classic Trophy Building
Guide Price £3,600,000/£3,800,000
CBRE | Page 17
Sale Price £4,310,000 (4.4%)
29/30 High Street, Windsor, Berkshire
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Classic Asset Management Potential
Guide Price £1,200,000
CBRE | Page 18
Sale Price £1,540,000 (6.15%)
Waterside Business Centre, Isleworth, Middlesex
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Classic Alternative Use Potential
Guide Price£1,200,000 (£70 psf CV)
CBRE | Page 19
Sale Price £3,760,000 (£200 psf CV)
272/276 Bath Road, Heathrow
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Classic Ground Rent
Guide Price£1,000,000 +
CBRE | Page 20
Sale Price £1,195,000 (4.72%)
Wedgewood Way, Pin Green Industrial Estate,
Stevenage
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The Bad
CBRE | Page 21
The Bad
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Vacant Properties
Sold £1,260,000
34,700 sq ft
CBRE | Page 22
34,700 sq ft
£36 psf CV
Tolpits Lane, Rickmansworth
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Vacant Properties
Sold £705,000
46,565 sq ft
CBRE | Page 23
46,565 sq ft
£15 psf CV
235 Ampthill Road, Bedford
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Vacant Properties
Sold £355,000
41,870 sq ft
CBRE | Page 24
41,870 sq ft
£8.50 psf CV
Northshore House, Dundee
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Vacant Properties
Sold £137,500
CBRE | Page 25
Sold £137,500
33 Bridge Street, Evesham
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Properties let to “?” covenants
� LA Leisure Ltd (t/a LA Fitness)
� 35 years from June 2006 (no breaks)
� RPI linked rent reviews
Hove
Leeds
CBRE | Page 26
� RPI linked rent reviews
� Lot sizes £650,000 - £1,700,000
� All Sold Average Yield 13.08%Lincoln
Guildford
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Properties in Difficult Locations
Guide Price£2,000,000 (18.5%)
CBRE | Page 27
Sale Price £2,430,000 (15.2%)
Sherborne Square Shopping Centre, Huyton,
Liverpool
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“High Risk” Properties
Guide Price: £800,000/£900,000
CBRE | Page 28
Sale Price £920,000 (43%) (£27.50 psf CV)
35-37 Colston Avenue, Bristol
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“High Risk” Properties
Guide Price: £1,350,000/£1,400,000
CBRE | Page 29
Sale Price £1,200,000 (14.96%) (£12.40 psf CV)
15 Windover Road, Huntingdon
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Challenging Locations
Sold 2004 - £1,680,000 (4.95%)Sold 2006 - £1,940,000 (4.29%)
CBRE | Page 30
Unsold 2012 - £820,000 (10.1%)
Sold 2013 - £790,000 (10.5%)
Oxford Street, Bolton
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The Ugly
CBRE | Page 31
The Ugly
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Challenging Locations
Unsold £545,000
CBRE | Page 32
(14%)
58/68 Channel Street, Galashiels
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Challenging Locations
Unsold £675,000
CBRE | Page 33
(7.2%)
Centre Court, Brookfield, Middlesbrough
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Sector Issues!
Unsold £650,000
CBRE | Page 34
(9.5%)
Stanley Medical Centre, Stanley, Liverpool
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Mixed Issues!
Unsold £1,700,000
CBRE | Page 35
(14.1%)
Olympia House, Beeston, Leeds
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Mixed Issues!
Unsold £850,000
21,000 sq ft
CBRE | Page 36
21,000 sq ft
(11.4% / £40 psf)
Shaw Lane Industrial Estate, Doncaster
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Mixed Issues!
Unsold £1,200,000
CBRE | Page 37
(19.5%)
Glydegate Square, Bradford
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Increasing Risk Aversion & Polarisation
Predictions for 2013
CBRE | Page 38
Polarisation
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Further Valuation Adjustments for Secondary and Tertiary Stock
Predictions for 2013
CBRE | Page 39
Secondary and Tertiary Stock
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Lenders to be more Proactive about Property Lending
Predictions for 2013
CBRE | Page 40
about Property Lending
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Continuing Good Demand for Prime Properties
Predictions for 2013
CBRE | Page 41
Prime Properties
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Excellent Buying Opportunities for those with Knowledge & Skill
Predictions for 2013
CBRE | Page 42
those with Knowledge & Skill
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Conclusion
CBRE | Page 43
Conclusion
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Prime end of market doing well
CBRE | Page 44
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Increased momentum for correctly priced asset management stock
CBRE | Page 45
priced asset management stock
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Receivership Sales up 50% in 2012
CBRE | Page 46
Receivership Sales up 50% in 2012
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Private Property Company sales up 25% in 2012
CBRE | Page 47
up 25% in 2012
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Private Individual sales down 10% in 2012
CBRE | Page 48
in 2012
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30% of our buyers have never bought before at Auction
CBRE | Page 49
bought before at Auction
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75% of our buyers are cash buyers; 25% have funding in
CBRE | Page 50
buyers; 25% have funding in place
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Increasing number of long established investors returning
CBRE | Page 51
established investors returning to the market
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Historic Valuations are just that –HISTORIC!
CBRE | Page 52
HISTORIC!
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PRICING IS ABSOLUTELY KEY!
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PRICING IS ABSOLUTELY KEY!
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Key CBRE Auction Dates
Auction Date
Wednesday 27th February 2013
Wednesday 22nd May 2013
Monday 8th July 2013
Deadline for Entries
Books Closed
Friday 19th April 2013
Friday 31st May 2013
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Monday 8th July 2013
Tuesday 15th October 2013
Wednesday 4th December 2013
Friday 31st May 2013
Friday 13th September 2013
Friday 1st November 2013