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Outlook for Energy Market in Japan and China

Houston, October 22, 2014

Dr. Hooman PeimaniResearch Fellow

Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)

Views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter only.

Outline of Presentation

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I-Introduction

II-Role of Gas in the Asia-Pacific Region’s Energy Security III-Role of LNG in the Asia-Pacific Region’s Energy Security: Drivers for LNG Consumption

IV-Global LNG Exporters and Their Shares of the Asia-Pacific LNG Market

V-Major Trends in the Asia-Pacific LNG Market

VI-Intensification of Competition over LNG Exports to the Asia-Pacific Region

VII-LNG and SSLNG (Small-scale LNG) in China

VIII-LNG and SSLNG (Small-scale LNG) in Japan

IX-Conclusions

I-Introduction

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The Asia-Pacific region’s energy mix Map of Asia-Pacific Region

1-The regional energy mix follows the global pattern:

● Domination of fossil energy (oil, gas and coal) ● Small share of non-fossil energy (renewables and nuclear)

2-The regional energy security is heavily dependent on its fossil energy’s security to continue in the foreseeable future.

Energy Mix of the Asia-Pacific Region in 2013 (mtoe)

Source: Author’s creation based on the data in BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014. London: BP, 2014, p. 41. http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf

Map: http://www.transitionsabroad.com/listings/living/living_abroad/living_in_asia.shtml

Total Consumption

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables

5151.4 1415.0 575.2 2696.5 77.8 308.7 78.2

II-Role of Gas in the Asia-Pacific Region’s Energy Security

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A-Gas has a significant role in the regional energy mix, but it is way behind a dominant one:

  1- Contributing factors, depending on the specifics of given economies, include: ●Availability of oil and coal●Ease of their consumption because of decades of consumption●High cost of switching to gas ●Low cost of coal

 B-Domination of oil and coal in the Asia-Pacific’s energy mix to continue in the foreseeable future

Share of Gas of the Asia-Pacific Region’s Energy Mix (2010-2013)Year Total energy

consumption(mtoe)

Gas Consumption

(mtoe)

Share of Gas of Energy

Mix (%)

Oil Consumption

(mtoe)

Share of Oil of

Energy Mix (%)

Coal Consumption

(mtoe)

Share of Coal of Energy

Mix (%)

2013 5151.5 575.2 11.16 1415.0 27.46 2696.5 52.34

2012 4993.5 564.4 11.30 1398.1 27.99 2597.5 52.01

2011 4753.2 534.2 11.23 1336.6 28.12 2464.2 51.84

2010 4557.6 502.1 11.01 1281.7 28.12 2354.4 51.65

Source: Author’s creation based on the data in BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014. London: BP, 2014, p. 41; BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. London: BP, 2013, p. 41; BP. BP Statistical Review 2012. London: BP, 2012, p. 41. All shares have been calculated

by the author.

By and large, gas consumption is increasing in the Asia-Pacific economies within a limit.

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A-Economies with piped gas options do not opt for LNG due to its high cost.  B-The major regional LNG consumers are and will likely remain the East Asian economies (China, Chinese Taipei [Taiwan], South Korea and Japan) and India due to geographical realities and energy security imperatives.

C-Long-term drivers for LNG consumption:

●Geographical realities: Piped gas is currently not an option for Chinese Taipei, Japan and South Korea. ●Energy security imperatives: Inadequacy of available piped-gas supplies (local production/imports); Concerns about over-dependency on a small number of gas suppliers, supply means (pipelines) and supply routes to justify supply diversification (China, India and Singapore).

D-Short-term drivers for LNG consumption: Temporary substitute for a lost source of energy

●Japan after Fukushima: Total loss of its nuclear energy (48 reactors)

●South Korea: Loss of 4 nuclear reactors in May 2013 due to safety-related concerns -Temporary closure of the Shin Kori 2 and Shin Wolsong 1 reactors and the extension of the Shin Kori 1 reactor’s shut down for scheduled maintenance. All were cleared to restart in January 2014. -The newly-constructed Shin Wolsong 2 was kept waiting for approval to start commercial operation. It is still offline. Source: See Page 20.

III-Role of LNG in the Asia-Pacific Region’s Energy Security: Drivers for LNG Consumption

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Total imports in

2012(billion cubic

meters)

Increase over 2011(%)

Share of LNG of Gas

Demand2012(%)

Share of total global LNG

imports2012(%)

Total imports in 2013

(billion cubic meters)

Increase over 2012(%)

Share of LNG of Gas

Demand2013(%)

Share of total Global LNG

imports2013(%)

Japan 118.8 8.5 97 36.23 119.0 0.01 97 36.58

South Korea

49.7 1.0 100 15.15 54.2 9.05 100 16.66

China 20.0 1.9 13.90 6.09 24.5 22.5 15.16 7.53

India 20.5 1.2 37.54 6.25 17.8 -13.17 34.63 4.47

Taiwan 16.9 0.6 100 5.15 17.2 1.77 100 5.28

Thailand 1.4 40 2.73 0.42 2.0 42.00 3.83 0.61

Others 0 0 0 0 3.4 0 11.87 1.04

Total 227.2 9.59 36.35 69.29 238.1 4.79 37.24 72.17

LNG Imports of the Asia-Pacific Region in 2012 and 2013

Source: Author’s creation based on data in International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2013. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2013, p. 10; International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2014. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2014, p. 9; BG Group. Securing energy supply for Singapore, 25 February 2014, http://www.bg-group.com/~/tiles/?tiletype=news&id=604 ; BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012. BP. London, 2012, p. 23, 28; BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. BP. London, 2013, p. 23, 28; BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014. BP. London, 2014, p. 23, 28. All the shares of the total global imports in 2012 and 2013, the shares of LNG of gas demands in 2012 and 2013, and the increases over 2011 and 2012 have been calculated by the author using the latter .

E-LNG imports in 2013 ●Total global LNG imports in 2013: 325.3 bcm (236.8 MT) ●Total Asia-Pacific region’s imports in 2013: 238.1 bcm (177.6 MT) ●Asia-Pacific region’s share of the global imports in 2013: 72.17%

Role of LNG in the Asia-Pacific Region’s Energy Security: Drivers for LNG Consumption

IV-Global LNG Exporters and Their shares of the Asia-Pacific LNG Market

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A-Global LNG exporters in 20131-Total exporters: 172-New exporter beginning 2013: Angola

B-Growing shift towards the Asia-Pacific region

1-Major reasons:

●The ongoing rapid disappearance of the North American market due to the increase in the American unconventional gas production, including the “shale gas revolution”.

●Shrinking European market due to poor economic performance and the availability of cheaper piped gas and coal.

● The Asia-Pacific region’s large and growing gas market, which currently cannot be fed by piped gas only.

Global LNG exporters and their shares of the Asia-Pacific LNG market

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LNG Exporters to the Asia-Pacific Region 2013 Exporting Region

Exporters Total Exports (bcm)

Share of Global Market

325.3 bcm(%)

Exports to Asia-Pacific

Market (bcm)

Share of Asia-

Pacific Market

238.3 bcm(%)

Share of Asia-Pacific Market of

Total Exports 2013

(%)

Share of Asia-Pacific Market of

Total Exports 2012

(%)

Middle East Qatar, Oman, UAE and Yemen

134.1 41.22 102 42.80 76.00 68.85

Asia-Pacific Australia, Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia

95.9 29.48 95.5 40.07 99.58 99.57

Africa Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea

46.5 14.29 21.8 9.14 46.88 41.22

Europe Norway, Russia & others, including re-exporters

23.1 7.10 15.70 6.58 67.96 72.24

Americas Trinidad & Tobago and Peru

25.4 7.80 

3.30 1.38 12.99 14.05

Source: Author’s creation based on data in BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014. London: BP, 2014, p. 28; BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. London: BP, 2013, p. 28. All shares have been calculated by the author based on the data in the mentioned sources.

V-Major trends in the Asia-Pacific LNG Market

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A-The Asia-Pacific region will remain the largest source of LNG demand

B-Japan’s LNG imports will decrease significantly when it restores its nuclear energy sector. ●Possibility of a further decrease due to the proposed Sakhalin Island-Ibaraki Prefecture Pipeline (1350 km; capacity: 20bcm/y). A group of Japanese lawmakers revived the proposed project in May 2014. C-South Korea’s LNG imports will also decrease for two reasons:

●Three of its shut-down nuclear reactors have gone online in 2014 and five under-construction reactors will be operational in this decade; four more are scheduled for construction in the 2nd half of this decade to become operational in early next decade. ●Possibility of piped gas imports from Russia via North Korea through the proposed Trans-Korean Pipeline (3199 km; initial capacity 10 bcm/y). Russia’ s Duma waived $10 billion of the North Korean debt to Russia in April 2014 as a prelude to its construction.

D-China and India will eventually replace Japan and South Korea as the main LNG importers.

E-India’s LNG imports could decrease significantly if the idea of a Russian-Indian Pipeline as discussed in July 2014 in Brazil during the BRICS summit becomes a reality.

Source: See Page 20.

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A-There is a shift towards exports to the Asia-Pacific market among the global LNG suppliers at the time when two major developments are taking place:   1-The growth of the regional market will be limited and LNG imports will decrease due to certain factors:

●Growing availability of locally-produced conventional and unconventional (e.g., CBM & coal gas) piped gas to China.

●Growing availability of imported piped gas to China through　　　 The Central Asian Gas Pipeline (maximum capacity: 65 bcm/y to increase up to 85 bcm/y) The Sino-Myanmar Gas Pipeline (maximum capacity: 12 bcm/y) The Sino-Russian Pipeline (Power of Siberia; 4000 km; 38 bcm/y) to become operational by 2018

●Future possibility of importing Iranian gas by connecting to the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline.

●A decline in imports of the region’s two large importers (Japan and South Korea) as they will eventually replace a growing part of their LNG requirements with nuclear energy.

VI-Intensification of competition over LNG exports to the Asia-Pacific region

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2-Focusing on the Asia-Pacific as their main market, the number of LNG exporters and their export capacity are increasing: ● New exporters: Papua New Guinea since 2014, Canada, the USA and East Timor in the short-term and Iran in the medium-term.

● In the short-term, the European LNG re-exporters (Portugal, Netherland, Belgium, Spain and France) will compete with the LNG exporters due to the lowering demand in Europe while Singapore is increasing its LNG storage capacity to become a long-term LNG re-exporter.

●Just about all the existing LNG exporters are expanding their production capacity. 100 MT of new export capacity is expected to come on-stream by 2018 with Australia as the leading supplier (68 MT) to replace Qatar as the largest LNG exporter.* 3-Unconventional gas production in the USA will soon end all its LNG imports and result in excess supply in its current suppliers, which will likely be exported to the Asia-Pacific region .

B-Excluding short-term fluctuations, LNG prices will likely decease as a result of abundance of supply/suppliers to encourage a competition among the suppliers over the Asia-Pacific LNG market with its limits.Source: * International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2014. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2014, p . 6. 

Intensification of competition over LNG exports to the Asia-Pacific region

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A-Drivers for LNG imports: ●A gap-filler: It fills the gap between the large gas demand and the available domestic/imported piped gas. ●Emission reducer: It helps China decrease its CO2 emissions by reducing its heavy and growing consumption of oil and especially coal.  B-Factors reducing LNG imports: 

●Access to a growing amount of piped gas    ●Increasing domestic conventional gas production (from 35bcm in 2003 to 117.1 bcm in 2013; 9.5% increase over 2012: 107.2 bcm) and likely further expansion of its reserves (from 1.7 tcm/1993 to 3.3 tcm/2013) due to new discoveries (e.g., South China Sea’s gas fields) to help it further increase production.

  ●Likely large-scale commercial-scale production of unconventional gas (CBM and/or shale gas) in the near future. CNPC is planning to produce 4.5 bcm/y of CBM by 2015 (3 bcm in 2013).

  ●Expansion of renewables (e.g., wind, from 75GW in 2014 to 200GW in 2020) and nuclear energy, from 18,075 MW in 2014 to 95, 768 by 2030 (under-construction and planned)

  ●High cost of imported LNG, which is more expensive in the Asia-Pacific region than other regions.

  ●Necessity of deceasing its heavy dependency on imported fuels for at least two reasons: ♦Heavy financial burden on the Chinese economy ♦Urgent need of addressing underdevelopment/uneven development causing social and political challenges (e.g., expanding labour protests), which is capital intensive.

The Chinese LNG Market will likely peak in this decade and start shrinking.  Source: See Page 20.

VII-LNG and SSLNG (small-scale LNG) in China

LNG and SSLNG (Small-scale LNG) in China

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C-SSLNG in China   1-China has the Most-developed SSLNG sector in the Asia-Pacific region   ●China accounts for the bulk of the regional wholesale and retail SSLNG to supply small-scale consumers, including small industries and power produces as well as land transportation operators (heavy trucks and buses).   ●The Chinese government has fully supported SSLNG.   2-Main objectives: ● Cutting CO2 emissions ● Switching to an alternative to oil derivatives for land/maritime transportation for environmental and financial reasons ● Reducing transportation costs ● Supplying small and isolated customers

D-Source of gas for domestic LNG production: Due to its limited natural gas reserves, China uses a range of unconventional gas, includingcoal gas and CBM.

E-Wholesale SSLNG

1- Liquefaction: China has rapidly built its domestic small-scale liquefaction sector to replace diesel with LNG for land transportation and cut vehicle emissions. It built its first small liquefaction plant about 10 years ago. It now has nearly 90 plants (from 0.005 to 0.5 MTPA) either in use or close to start-up. 2-Regassification: Small number of operating facilities, including Mengtougou (0.1 MTPA) and Dongguan (1 MPTA). Source: International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2014. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2014, p. 4, 44.

Capacity: 2500MTPA

LNG and SSLNG (Small-scale LNG) in China

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F-Retail SSLNG LNG Refuelling Station in China

1-Refuelling stations: China has about 1,100 refuelling stations for heavy vehicles (trucks and buses). ●May 2014: Yantai Jereh Oilfied Services Group (Jereh) announced the “More LNG Stations for Green China” project to encourage the Chinese LNG industry to build 10,000 LNG refuelling stationsthroughout the country.

2-LNG-fuelled vehicles: China is leading the world in this field with over 50,000 LNG-fuelled trucks in 2012 and, reportedly, at least 100,000 heavy LNG-fuelled vehicles (buses and trucks) in 2014.   ● LNG-powered trucks accounted for 7% of all truck sales in 2013.

  ● China has been converting its diesel-fuelled public bus fleets and building LNG-fuelled buses. Ex: The Beijing Public Transportation operates the world’s largest LNG-fuelled city buses fleet (5,600; built/converted) and is planning to convert an additional 1,600 buses. China’s Alfa YS6121 LNG Bus

  ●LNG vessels: Test navigation of a tugboat using 70% LNG and 30% diesel along the Yangtze River China’s Alfa YS6121 LNG Bus in Hubei Province in 2010. Today, 21 LNG vessels navigate on the Yangtze River, Beijing-Hangzhou Canal, Ganjiang River, Dongting Lake and Weishan Lake.

● By 2015, 55 LNG bunkering stations are scheduled to be operational along these waterways.

● China's transport ministry aims to have 2,000 vessels (2% of its inland fleet) running on LNG by 2015 to rise to 10,000 vessels by 2020 by converting diesel vessels and building new ones. ● Some of the Chinese provinces provide subsidies for the conversion of diesel-fueled inland ships to LNG-fuelled ones such as Jiangxi Province, which is now providing subsidies to 700 ships. 

Source: See Page 20.

VIII-LNG and SSLNG in Japan

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A-Drivers for LNG imports: ●LNG as a fuel of force: Japan has currently no access to imported piped gas due to its island geography. Its domestic production meets a fraction of its gas requirements (around 3.5%). LNG imports will continue for as long as gas remains part of the economy’s energy mix.

●Fukushima factor: Japan’s LNG imports grew by 24% from 2010 to 2012 because of the Fukushima incident.  B-Factors to reduce LNG imports: ●Unsustainability of the Fukushima-caused additional LNG, oil and gas imports: Japan will inevitably reactivate its nuclear reactors because of the heavy and growing cost of imported fuels (e.g., LNG, $70billion, 2013) challenging Japan’s economic recovery and export competitiveness. It may well encourage relocation to abroad of its energy-intensive industries. Additionally, the status quo has negatively affected Japan’s export of nuclear technology.

●Possibility of imported Russian piped gas: Proposed Sakhalin Island-Ibaraki Prefecture Pipeline

Major obstacle: Western sanctions on Russia’s energy sector because of Ukraine. Yet, the EU’s large and growing oil/gas imports from Russia may weaken the Western opposition to the pipeline.

  

Consequently, the Japanese LNG market will become smaller in the short-term even in absence of the proposed Russian piped gas.  

Source: EIA. Japan: Overview. 31 July 2014. http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=JA; International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2014. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2014, p. 10; Tsukimori, Osamu and James Topham. “RPT-Huge Russia-China gas deal still leaves door open to Japan.” Reuters, 8 June 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/08/russia-japan-gas-idUSL3N0ON13L20140608

 

LNG and SSLNG in Japan

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C-SSLNG in Japan 1-Japan’s SSLNG sector is yet to be developed as, by and large, CNG has been its main focus for small-scale gas consumption. 2-Its LNG wholesale sector is more significant than its retail sector, which has a small number of LNG distribution centres. 3-Main objectives ●Supplying residential consumers and small industries, including power stations, in remote areas with no piped gas option. ●Storing and distributing small volumes of locally-produced gas. Yufutsu Receiving & Liquefaction Plant

D-Wholesale SSLNG  Yufutsu Receiving & Liquefaction Plant

1-Liquefaction: There is a small number of small-scale liquefaction plants in remote areas using small volumes of locally-produced gas to produce LNG for local consumption where gas pipelines cannot be financially justified.

● Example: 120MT/d and 200MT/y liquefaction facilities in Tomakomai on Hokkaido Island.  2-Regassification: Japan has most of the Asia-Pacific region’s existing small-scale receiving & regasifiation terminals of which many have been built as satellite plants near its 21 operating large LNG terminals.

● Capacity range from <0.1 to 0.9 MTPA. ● Operating terminals, e.g., Yoshinura (0.5 MTPA;Sakaide (0.7 MTPA); Mizushima LNG (0.9 MTPA)  ● Under-construction: Kushiro LNG (0.5 MTPA; operational in 2015)

Other regasification facilities have been built for low-demand areas such as the Yufutsu Receiving Terminal (about 45,000 MTPA) on Hokkaido Island, a secondary terminal aimed at receiving LNG by a coastal tanker fed by an ocean-going LNG tanker. Its LNG is distributed among local small consumers by LNG trucks.

Source: See Page 20.

LNG and SSLNG (Small-scale LNG) in Japan

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E-Retail SSLNG

● Refuelling stations: Japan has a very limited small-scale LNG distribution projects using dedicated SSLNG vessels operating from its LNG receiving terminals to supply small amounts of LNG to power stations, small industries and residential areas.

● Vehicles refuelling stations and LNG-fuelled trucks/buses: Japan is not a major player in this field. Its focus on NGV and the required infrastructure has mainly been on CNG-vehicles and refuelling stations .

● Feeding small industrial consumers through LNG satellite system: There is a degree of small-scale distribution system using trucks (tank trucks and container trucks) and rail transportation (railway containers) allowing imported-LNG distribution to local distribution centres (LDCs) in remote areas with no access to gas-pipeline networks, e.g., JAPEX’s satellite system on Honshu Island.

  

Source: JAPEX. https://www.japex.co.jp/english/business/japan/lng.html

IX-Conclusions

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1-Japan’s SSLNG will likely have a limited growth (at least in the foreseeable future) with a focus mainly on receiving terminals/regasifiation for imported LNG and, to a much lesser extent, liquefaction of locally-produced gas in remote areas with no pipeline networks.

2-China will be the major arena for SSLNG activities in the Asia-Pacific region covering both wholesale (mainly liquefaction of locally-produced unconventional gas) and retail (covering just about all kinds of related facilities) sectors.

3-In particular, China’s efforts to reduce its CO2 emissions will provide a large and growing market for the production of LNG-fuelled land and marine transportation as well as the conversion of the diesel-fuelled heavy vehicles and in-land vessels with their required infrastructure, including LNG refuelling stations and land distributers (e.g., tank trucks) .

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THANK YOU

FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION

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Sources for Pages 5, 9, 12, 14 and 16

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Page 14 : “Green China” Project Calls for 10,000 LNG Stations. NGV China, 26 May 2014. http://www.ngvchinaqifa.com/news-media/industry-news/79.html; Shiryaevskaya, Anna. “LNG Trucks Seen Boosting Transport Market Share by 2035.”Bloomberg News,28 September 2014. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-09-28/lng-trucks-to-boost-transport-market-share-by-2035-cedigaz-says ; International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2013. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2013, p. 10; World Energy Report 2013. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2013, p. 43; International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2014. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2014, p. 44, 6;Yep, Eric. “China Tries Natural Gas to Fuel Shippers on the Yangtze River.” Wall Street Journal, 5 September 2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-tries-natural-gas-to-fuel-shippers-on-the-yangtze-river-1409913743 ; Innovation Norway/Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway. Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China. 14 October 2011, p. 19. http://www.norway.cn/Global/SiteFolders/webbeij/DNV%20-%20China%20LNG%20Final%20Report.pdf ; CNPC website. Substituting Natural Gas for Oil for Low-Carbon Development’ Natural Gas Dales . 2014. http://www.cnpc.com.cn/en/yqdy2013en/yqdy2013en.shtml; China continues to expand LNG bus fleets. NGV Journal, 3 February 2013. http://www.ngvjournal.com/china-continues-to-expand-lng-bus-fleets/; Gismatullin, Eduard. “Shell Sees China LNG-for-Transport Outpacing U.S., Canada.” Bloomberg News, 9 September 2014. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-09-09/shell-sees-china-lng-for-transport-market-outpacing-u-dot-s-dot-canada ; Chart will equip 50 permanent LNG fuelling stations in China. NGV Journal, 13 May 2014, http://www.ngvjournal.com/chart-will-equip-50-permanent-lng-fueling-stations-in-china/

Page 16: JAPEX. Yufutsu LNG Plant. https://www.japex.co.jp/english/business/japan/lng.html; Sato, Shigeru and Megumi Yamanaka. “Japex to Boost LNG Plant Capacity in Japan on Record Demand.” Bloomberg, 20 July 2006. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEdMqOjY5.Ts; International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2013. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2013, p. 10; World Energy Report 2011. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2011, p. ; International Gas Union (IGS). World Energy Report 2014. IGS: Fornebou, Norway, 2014, p.43;45.