Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia

Greenhouse Gas Balance of RussiaGreenhouse Gas Balance of Russia

GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WSGCP Regional Carbon Budgets WSBeijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004Beijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004

S. Nilsson,S. Nilsson,aa E.A. Vaganov, E.A. Vaganov,bb V.A. Rozhkov, V.A. Rozhkov,bb A. Shvidenko,A. Shvidenko,aa V. Stolbovoi, V. Stolbovoi,aa I. McCallum, I. McCallum,aa

M. Jonas,M. Jonas,aa and M. Obersteiner and M. Obersteineraa

((aa IIASA; IIASA; bb Russia) Russia)

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IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program

Full Carbon Accounting for Russia Full Carbon Accounting for Russia (1988–1992)(1988–1992)

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Some layers of the Some layers of the Integrated Land Integrated Land

Information SystemInformation System


Terrestrial Full Corg Balance for Russia (1988–1992)

V

NPP: 4354 ( 118)

Con: 682 (41)

RO: 62 (14)

HR + Ant:4026 ( 131)

SRO: 9 (3)

306(156)

H 62(14)L 20

(7)

A -351-(176)

Dis: 143 (16)

P -38-(155)

Det: 3222 (93)

HR: 3201 (123)

Leak: 20 (7) URO: 50 (13)

Dep: 23 (7) Dep_H:3 (1)

Dep_P: 20 (7)

CSRO:12 (4)DOS: 70 (15)

Plab: -69 -(±155)

Pstab: 31 (±9)

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CARBON FLUXESCARBON FLUXES

tC/ha

tC/ha

Vegetational Fluxes (1990)

Soil Fluxes (1990)

23


Total NTotal N22O 1990O 1990

15

Total Emissions 0.64 Tg N2O


CHCH44 1990 1990

Big variation in the fossil emission in 1990: 5–16 Tg CH4 16

Total Emissions 48 Tg CH4


CO2

CH4

N2O

Combined GHG GWP Effect

Global Warming Potentials in CO2 Equivalents over 100 Year Time Horizon of Terrestrial Emissions and Fossil Fuels of Russia in 1990

Global Warming Potentials in Tg (CO2 equivalents) 1990

SectorSector COCO22 CHCH44 NN22OO TOTALTOTAL

IndustryIndustry 21382138 443443 1212 25932593

AgricultureAgriculture -411-411 9999 6262 -250-250

Natural EcosystemsNatural Ecosystems -877-877 460460 123123 -294-294

TOTALTOTAL 850850 10021002 197197 20492049

17Nature neutralizing ~20% of industrial emissions

-0.80 -0.55 -0.30 -0.05 0.20

Atmospheric Sink Strength [PgC yr-1]Terrestrial Sink Strength [PgC yr-1]

Russian Terrestrial FCA: 1988Russian Terrestrial FCA: 1988––19921992Average Annual Atmospheric Sink StrengthAverage Annual Atmospheric Sink Strength

-0.35 ± 0.10 (This Study, 2003)

-0.15 ± 0.12 (Nilsson et al., 2000)

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Conclusions for 1990 EstimatesConclusions for 1990 Estimates Modified systems view with respect to soils and Modified systems view with respect to soils and

inclusion of more detailed lateral and horizontal inclusion of more detailed lateral and horizontal fluxes resulted in doubling the net terrestrial sink fluxes resulted in doubling the net terrestrial sink capacity. Combination of process based methods capacity. Combination of process based methods with inventorieswith inventories

The assessment of the atmospheric/terrestrial The assessment of the atmospheric/terrestrial exchange is sensitive to small changes in surface exchange is sensitive to small changes in surface and sub-surface fluxesand sub-surface fluxes

The uncertainties are substantially reducedThe uncertainties are substantially reduced

Underlining the need for thorough and full Underlining the need for thorough and full accounting including all fluxesaccounting including all fluxes

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Top down ….. Bottom Up(cit. Daniel Muridiyarso)


Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Strength Bottom-up Results for RussiaStrength Bottom-up Results for Russia

RegionRegion Vegetated Area Vegetated Area 101012 . 12 . mm22

RussiaRussia 1616

EurasiaEurasia 3636

Northern Extra-tropicsNorthern Extra-tropics 56 56

Inverse Modeling

Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia

-1.45 - 0.79

Up Scaled Bottom-up Values

Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia

-1.22 - 0.77

Valid for the Northern Extra-tropical Region

PgC•yr-1

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ConclusionsConclusions Our full C account of Russia is closer to Our full C account of Russia is closer to

atmospheric inversion than existing C atmospheric inversion than existing C inventory + model techniquesinventory + model techniques

Combined top downCombined top down––bottom up based bottom up based approach has smaller uncertainties than approach has smaller uncertainties than pure top down approachpure top down approach

The combination of bottom up (FCA) with The combination of bottom up (FCA) with top down (atmospheric inversion) is the top down (atmospheric inversion) is the way to achieve ultimate verificationway to achieve ultimate verification

No “Missing SinkNo “Missing Sink””10


Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Emissions Emissions

in Russia 1988in Russia 1988––20022002

-700-600-500-400-300-200-100

0100200300400500600700800

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fossil

Total

Terrestrial

TgC

-351-689 -518

25


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Years

Are

a (m

il h

a)

SatellitemeasurementsOfficial data forprotected area

Vegetation fire in Russia in 1971-2002


INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA)RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

DIS

OI

LG

NG


Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C)Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

Years

C F

luxe

s (T

g C

) Log

TF

Biotic

Abiotic

Total


Summarized assessment of C fluxes due Summarized assessment of C fluxes due to disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yrto disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yr-1-1))

Logging and forest productsLogging and forest products 83.1 [56 to 99]83.1 [56 to 99] Veg Fire (direct emissions)Veg Fire (direct emissions) 69.7 [12 to 229]69.7 [12 to 229] Veg Fire (post D emissions)Veg Fire (post D emissions) 68.9 [62 to 81]68.9 [62 to 81] Veg Fire – totalVeg Fire – total 138.6 [81to 303]138.6 [81to 303] BioticBiotic 75.7 [62 to 89]75.7 [62 to 89] AbioticAbiotic 27.5 [16-36]27.5 [16-36] Overall totalOverall total 325 [262 to 479]325 [262 to 479]


FacitFacit

Bringing the biosphere into a carbon trading Bringing the biosphere into a carbon trading system adds substantial uncertainty and risksystem adds substantial uncertainty and risk– Lemmons marketLemmons market– Compliance in a stochastic environmentCompliance in a stochastic environment


Classification of D in boreal forestsClassification of D in boreal forests

ClimaticGeomorpho-

genicBiogenic Pyrogenic Anthropogenic

Weather

Climate Change

Denuadation

Cryogenic

Volcanogenic

Genus

Type

Zoogenic

Pathogenic

Landscape Fire

Site Degradation

•Pollution•Industrial Land Transformation

•Forest Management


MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE

ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERE

Total carbon flux caused by disturbance Total carbon flux caused by disturbance r r during during year year t1t1

TCFTCFr,t1r,t1 = DF = DFr,t1r,t1 + PDF + PDFr,t<t1r,t<t1,,

where where DFDFr,t1r,t1 is direct emission during year is direct emission during year t1, and t1, and

PDFPDFr,t<t1r,t<t1 is post disturbance biogenic is post disturbance biogenic fluxflux

Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia

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