Grant Ian Thrall, Ph.D. - ICSC

10/11/2013 2 [email protected]

www.BusinessGeography.com

Grant Ian Thrall, Ph.D. Immediate Past President, American Real Estate Society

& Business Geography Advisors

Gainesville FL

• GeoSpatial For Location Intelligence And Real Estate Valuation

– The Data

– The Concepts

• Procedures Within The US

• Applications Of Procedures To China

The Take Away From This Presentation Is



Stages Of Stages Of Geospatial Reasoning

• 1997 - "Real Estate Problem Solving and Geographic Information Systems: A Stage Model of Reasoning." Journal of Real Estate Literature, vol. 5, number 2, July, 177-201. (Grant Thrall and Larry Wofford)

• Download at http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/class/g3602/wofford-thrall-jrel1997.pdf

[email protected]


Manage

Implementation

Judgment

Prediction

Explanation

Description Large Scale

Small Scale

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http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/class/g3602/wofford-thrall-jrel1997.pdf
















Location Intelligence, Business Geography, Real Estate Market Analysis

Site & Situation Valuation

– Four steps in site selection - calculate 1. Trade Area 2. Competitive Supply 3. Demand 4. Absorption Analysis

[email protected] www.BusinessGeography.com

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Local

Gap & Leakage


• “Gap” is the difference between demand and supply by industry category (NAICS).

• “Leakage" is when the local demand exceeds local supply

• Leakage - prospective consumers travel to locations elsewhere to satisfy their demands

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Location Specific Investment Decisions


Gap & Leakage

Overlooked

Current Opportunity

Population Increase

Future Opportunity

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Gap & Leakage Analysis

From http://www.STDB.com

Example Of A Place And Its Trade Area Somewhere USA.


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From The Geographic Access To Higher Education Report, Florida Board Of Governors, By Grant Ian Thrall


Full report at http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/fbog/index.htm

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http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/fbog/index.htm

Florida’s Population Change 2005-2010

Population change is never uniformly distributed across a nation, state, city,

Population Change 2005-2010

Florida’s total population was increasing at a rate of over 550 persons net per day.

Gainesville


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Market Segmentation By Psychographic


ESRI LifeMode Tapestry

http://www.esri.com/library/brochures/pdfs/tapestry-segmentation.pdf

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High Society ESRI LifeMode


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High Hopes ESRI LifeMode


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Customer Location, Point Map


Grant Thrall and Noelle Mecoli, 2003, Spatial Analysis, Political Support, and Higher Education Funding, GeoSpatial Solutions 13(7): 44-47. http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/research/uf/thrall-mecoli.pdf

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http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/research/uf/thrall-mecoli.pdf










Percent Of 2003 First-Time Freshmen In Each LifeMode By University


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Segmenting education for successful value platforms www.dteia.com

http://www.dteia.com/

Point Map Of L1 LSP Students’ Resident Locations While Attending University of Florida


Distribution Of UF Student Increase By Psychographic Segment

Students of an LSP segment cluster by neighborhood

50% of UF students are L1 and L2 based upon permanent address

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Judgment

10/11/2013 [email protected]

www.BusinessGeography.com 17

From Grant Thrall, 2005, Summary Report To The Florida Board Of Governors, Geographic Access To Higher Education In Florida http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/fbog/thrall-fbog-overview.pdf

http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/fbog/thrall-fbog-overview.pdf







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LSP / Psychographics Example Tapestry households =

1,2,3,5,7,9,15



H:/2008-July29-Toshiba/text/Consulting/Tapestry/Tapestry Descriptions.pdf

19

LSP / Psychographics Example Tapestry households =

1,2,3,5,7,9,15



H:/2008-July29-Toshiba/text/Consulting/Tapestry/Tapestry Descriptions.pdf

Trade Areas


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21

Trade Areas

How to Calculate Trade Areas

Ring Study

ZIP Code, block groups and other common polygons

Drive Time

Amoeba - Wedge

Wedge Casting – Patel, Fik, Thrall



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Location Of Comparables For An Appraisal

Comparables are not in primary trade area for Subject Property, and not in same geographic context as Subject Property

Subject property whose valuation was contested



Trade area calculation using Ashish Patel, Tim Fik, Grant Thrall, 2008, Direction Sensitive Wedge-Casting For Trade Area Delineation, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 14(2): 125-140. http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/class/g4620/tradearea.pdf

http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/class/g4620/tradearea.pdf

China


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Smith Travel Research, Inc. Marquee Hotels Globally Including Peoples’ Republic Of China


www.STR.com 10/11/2013 24

http://www.str.com/


OpenStreetMap For China Governmental Boundaries, Points Of Interest, Roads, Water, Shoreline, …

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• OpenStreetMap has roads, water, points of interest. Among the POI are McDonald’s, Starbucks, Hotels



OpenStreetMap For Beijing Governmental Boundaries, Points Of Interest, Roads, Water, Shoreline, …

Comparison In Nighttime Light Intensity China 2000 to 2010


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From: China Business Handbook 2013.

http://export.gov/china/build/groups/public/@eg_cn/documents/webcontent/eg_cn_055956.pdf


China Data In The US

China 2000 to 2010


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http://www.ChinaDataCenter.com http://www.GeoDemo.com

http://www.chinadatacenter.com/

http://www.geodemo.com/


Demographic Consulting Inc. Data - People’s Republic of China

10/11/2013 29 http://www.GeoDemo.com http://www.ChinaDataCenter.org


http://www.chinadatacenter.org/

Total Population Beijing Area 2012 100 Square Kilometer Grid


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Population Growth Rate Beijing Area 2000-2012 10 Square Kilometer Grid


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Median Price To Purchase A Home Beijing Area 2000 10 Square Kilometer Grid


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Housing Prices By Small Area Increase As A Logistic “S” Curve As Population Within The Small Area Increases



http://youtu.be/dgPYYAOGkuM

http://youtu.be/dgPYYAOGkuM

Median Price To Purchase A Home Beijing Area 20000, 10 Sq KM Grid – With Hotels & McDonalds


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Median Price To Rent A Home Beijing Area 20000, 10 Sq KM Grid – With Hotels & McDonalds -


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Total Population Age 5 To 35 Cohort Groups Beijing, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000


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% Population 5 To 35 Years Of Age Beijing, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000


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% Population 5 To 35 Years Of Age Beijing Urban Core, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000


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% Population 5 To 35 Years Of Age Beijing, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000


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John Wu

Tongyan Investment & Development Co.,Ltd

[email protected]

John Wu writes to Grant Thrall: our project is a 1 KM long commercial street of European architectural style, consisting of two major sections:

•an imported food/wine/seafood trading center; and •a fashion shopping complex.

We are doing the functional zoning and planning of retail establishments. The project will be completed in 2014. Now we have shop sales and leasing center.

China’s Commercial Real Estate Markets

used with permission

Existing Scale of Retail In China



John Wu

Tongyan Investment & Development Co.,Ltd [email protected]

Key Triggers For Change In China Retail



John Wu


Urbanization In China Compared To Rest Of World



John Wu


Top 50 Chinese Boom Cities



John Wu


By 2020, The Top 50 Chinese Boom Cities Collectively Will Exceed The EU In

Retail Sales, Retail Square Footage, Office Space



John Wu


2020 Gap In The Top 50 Chinese Boom Cities



John Wu


Booming Cities In China By Hierarchy Tier



John Wu


Population Hierarchy Of China



John Wu


Tier 1 Chinese Boom Cities



John Wu


Tier 1.5 And 2 Chinese Boom Cities



John Wu


Two Categories Of Tier 3 Chinese Boom Cities



John Wu


RESOURCES


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OpenStreetMap

• http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs



http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china

China Coverage On OpenStreetMap



OpenStreetMap

• http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs


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China Coverage On OpenStreetMap


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Shanghai POI Starbucks


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Shanghai Starbucks


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Western Restaurants In China

• http://www.travelchinaguide.com/cityguides/beijing/dinning/american.htm


http://www.nytimes.com/books/first/w/watson-arches.html

McDonalds‘ In China NY Times article

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http://www.travelchinaguide.com/cityguides/beijing/dinning/american.htm




Hotels In China http://www.chinatraveldepot.com/City-Hotel-List


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http://www.chinatraveldepot.com/City-Hotel-List





Find Latitude Longitude http://www.distancesfrom.com/Latitude-Longitude.aspx


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http://www.distancesfrom.com/Latitude-Longitude.aspx



Notes From Interview With Lex Berman Of Harvard On China Data

• Lex Berman Center for Geographic Analysis Harvard University (617) 496-9439 http://www.iq.harvard.edu/people/lex-berman

• Available - 1990 Census by county • Fairly extensive and clean 1990 variables in the China A data, look for China-A under China menu:

http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/hrs

• Available – 2000 Census, Harvard licensed for internal use by its researchers. See Michigan Data Center and Demographic Consulting Inc.

• Available - The 2010 is out in China. See Michigan Data Center and Demographic Consulting Inc. •

Large scale data is in production. Be on the lookout for China Research Data Center at Peking University, directed by Gu Jiafeng.

• see for example http://www.isss.edu.cn/index.php?catid=41&action=index • Historical data (mostly pre-1911):

http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~chgis/data/chgis/downloads/v4 http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~chgis/data/chgis/downloads/v5 http://skinner.hmdc.harvard.edu/ Modern data: http://worldmap.harvard.edu/maps/chinamap OpenStreetMap. http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs


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http://www.iq.harvard.edu/people/lex-berman




http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/hrs

http://www.isss.edu.cn/index.php?catid=41&action=index

http://www.isss.edu.cn/index.php?catid=41&action=index

http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~chgis/data/chgis/downloads/v4

http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~chgis/data/chgis/downloads/v5

http://skinner.hmdc.harvard.edu/

http://worldmap.harvard.edu/maps/chinamap


STR Hotel Data

Steve Hood Senior Vice President of Research, STR (Smith Travel Research)

Founding Director, SHARE Center ("Supporting Hotel-related Academic Research and Education") 735 East Main Street Hendersonville, TN 37075, USA Tel: +1 (615) 824 8664 x3315 Fax: +1 (615) 824 3848 Email: [email protected]

Twitter: @STR_Inc

LinkedIn

www.str.com

[email protected]

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mailto:[email protected]

https://twitter.com/STR_Inc

https://twitter.com/STR_Inc

http://www.linkedin.com/company/str-smith-travel-research-?trk=hb_tab_compy_id_1224951

http://www.str.com/


http://chinadatacenter.org/People/PeopleContent.aspx?id=2

http://chinadatacenter.org/

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http://chinadatacenter.org/People/PeopleContent.aspx?id=2

http://chinadatacenter.org/



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RESOURCES CITED


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John Wu

Tongyan Investment & Development Co.,Ltd

[email protected]

Miller Center For Retail Research And

Education, University of Florida

Dr. Hyunjoo Oh [email protected] http://warrington.ufl.edu/centers/retailcenter/executive/specialized.asp

ESRI

http://www.ESRI.com

Caliper

http://www.Caliper.com

Demographic Consulting {Chinese Data)

http://www.GeoDemo.com

China Data Center, University of Michigan

http://www.ChinaDataCenter.com

OpenStreetMap http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs

Harvard University, China Data Map http://worldmap.harvard.edu/maps/chinamap

International Council of Shopping Centers

http://www.icsc.org/

The Information Advisor

Vol. 25, No. 5, 2013 – China Data

http://www.informationadvisor.com/

China Business Handbook

http://export.gov/china/build/groups/public/@eg_cn/

documents/webcontent/eg_cn_055956.pdf

Business Geography Advisors

http://www.BusinessGeography.com

[email protected]

Smith Travel Research (Hotel Data)

www.str.com




http://warrington.ufl.edu/centers/retailcenter/executive/specialized.asp

http://www.esri.com/

http://www.caliper.com/


http://www.chinadatacenter.com/



http://worldmap.harvard.edu/maps/chinamap

http://www.icsc.org/

http://www.informationadvisor.com/




http://www.businessgeography.com/


http://www.str.com/

Thank You



Grant Ian Thrall, Ph.D. - ICSC

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