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Out of Gas

The end of the age of oil

David Goodstein

Portland State University November 14, 2008

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Energy Myths

$4.00 a gallon is too much to pay for gasoline

Oil companies produce oil. We must conserve energy. Otherwise well

have an energy crisis.

When we run out of oil, the marketplace willensure that its replaced by something else.

Theres enough fossil fuel in the ground to lastfor hundreds of years.

Nuclear energy is dangerous. The greenhouse effect and global warming are

bad.

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A Brief History of Energy

4 Lbs.

The falling weight turnsthe paddle wheel in thetank of water. As the wheelturns, the temperature ofthe water increases. Water filled tank

Work converted to heat

CaloricCount Rumford (Sir Benjamin Thompson),1753-1814Many others

CreditJames Prescott Joule, 1818-1889

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Forms of Energy

Kinetic

Organized

Random (Temperature)

PotentialGravitational

Chemical

Nuclear

etc.

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Thermal Radiation

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30% reflected70% absorbed

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30% reflected70% absorbed

Earthrise on the Moon

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30% reflected70% absorbed

T = 255 K = -18oC = 0oF

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Earths Climate

The tilted axis

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Earths Climate

The tilted axis

The El Nio Cycle

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Earths Climate

The tilted axis

The El Nio Cycle The Thermohaline

Flow

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Earths Climate

The tilted axis

The El Nio Cycle The Thermohaline

Flow

The GreenhouseEffect

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The Greenhouse Effect

From the Sun: 343 W/m2

Water vapor, methane,Carbon dioxide, etc.

88% Greenhouse

T = 287K= 14oC = 57oF

Feedback effects

Limiting cases

(Preindustrial)

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Sources of Useful Energy

Before 1800:

Light from theSun

Coal

Oil seeps

Swamp gas

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Nineteenth Century

Coal

Whale Oil

E. L. Drake, 1859, Titusville, PA.

Illumination, LubricationFuel

We can no longer live on light from the SunWe can no longer live on light from the Sun

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M. King Hubbert

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Fitting the dataHubberts Peak

Hubbert Curves

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

US Onshore Oil Production

Mb/d

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Reserves and Discovery

Oil Reserve Data

Annual Oil Discoveries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

bnb

bls

Non-OPEC

OPEC

Production

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

Non-OPEC

OPEC

bn

bbls

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003

Proved Oil Reserves

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Model Calculation

Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrre Sci. Amer., 1998

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Caution

Used 1.8 trillion

Technology = Discovery

Increasing price makes moreavailable

Reserve numbers very soft

Basic idea is right

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The Texas Railroad Commission announced a

100% allowable for next month

The San Francisco Chronicle, 1971

Kenneth Deffeyes:

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New York Times, March 5, 2007

Oil Innovations pump new life into old

wells. By Jad Mouawad

Many oil executives say thatpeak oiltheorists fail to take into account the way that

sophisticated technology combined withhigher prices make searching for new oilmore affordable.

Typically oil companies can only produce onebarrel for every three they find. (This)represents a tremendous opportunity.

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Oil Users

Petrochemicals

Stationary power plants Home heating

Transportation Cars

Trucks

Planes

Ships

Trains

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Fossil Fuels

Oil

Natural gas

Shale oil

Methane hydrate Coal

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Coal

Hundreds, maybe thousands years at present rate

Largest deposits in US Can be liquified substitute oilBut

Dirty (mercury, arsenic, sulfur)

Greenhouse effect Increase rate x5 replace oil

Increasing population

Higher standard of living

Hubberts peak.This century

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What does the future hold?

Oil crisis very soon

Fossil fuel will run out

Unknown consequences for the climate

Solar and nuclear Dilemma

Social, political

Technical

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Technological Fixes

Greenhouse Effect

Parasol at L1

Sequester CO2

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Transportation

Advanced batteries

Hydrogen Other fuels

We understand thebasic principles

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Prediction

Civilization as we know it will come to an end

sometime in this century, when the fuel runsout.

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United Nations Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (February 2, 2007)

Global warming due to human activity is real.

Its time to stop the debate and do somethigabout it.

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2008 State of the Union Address:

To build a future of energy security, we must

trust in the creative genius of Americanresearchers and entrepreneurs and empower

them to pioneer a new generation of clean

energy technology. Our security, ourprosperity and our environment all require

reducing our dependence on oil.

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Out of Gas

The end of the age of oil

David Goodstein