GOLD, OIL AND THE EURO:HYPOTHESES, TIME SERIES AND NEURAL NETWORK ANALYSIS FOR FUTURES DATA

A. G. Malliaris and Mary E. Malliaris

Loyola University Chicago

ILLINOIS ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION

MEETINGS

October 16-17, 2009

Outline• General Comments About Gold, Oil and

the Euro

• These Markets Prior to the Creation of the Euro

• How are these Markets Related Since the Creation of the Euro

Gold

• As an Anchor of the Gold Standard

• As a Hedge Against Inflation

• As a Free Commodity Since mid-1971

Long-Term Gold Price

Oil

• Significant Commodity in Global Economy

• Its role today is somehow lesser than in early 70s but still important

• Extremely volatile

Long-Term Oil Price

The Euro

• Start with the European Common Market in 1957

• From a Customs Union to One Market

• One Market with One Currency

The Creation of the Euro

Data

Daily data from January 4, 2000 to

December 31, 2007 for a total of 1,991

observations from Barchart.

Daily Data since 1999

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

-.3

-.2

-.1

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Ln Oil

Ln Gold

Ln Euro

Hypotheses

• Do these 3 Markets follow Random Walks?

• The twin U.S. deficits weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro and induce oil producers to demand compensation.

• Increases in oil prices impact gold prices.

Time Series Methods

• Are the euro, oil and gold co-integrated?

• Are there any short- and long-term relationships between the euro, oil and gold?

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Tests of Stationarity

• The model is:

T

iititt XcXataaX

11210

Price Level (LN(X))

   Only Lags Lags and Constant

Lags, Constant, and Trend

Gold      

  No lags 2.361111 0.667188 -2.836540

  5 lags 2.363708 0.693961 -2.843861

  20 lags 2.373704 0.766124 -2.862830

       

Oil      

  No lags 1.191509 -0.626496 -2.759707

  5 lags 1.313748 -0.461972 -2.541877

  20 lags 1.368074 -0.235474 -2.456710

       

Euro      

  No lags 0.631741 -0.079099 -3.034661

  5 lags 0.659061 -0.049944 -3.063701

  20 lags 0.521473 -0.293593 -2.657669

First Price Differences (LN(Xt) - LN(Xt-1))

   Only Lags Lags and Constant

Lags, Constant, and Trend

Gold      

  No lags -46.65579 -46.77877 -46.81729

  5 lags -18.68709 -18.86720 -18.93417

  20 lags -9.389532 -9.698579 -9.833956

       

Oil      

  No lags -45.22329 -45.25046 -45.24871

  5 lags -19.52137 -19.57521 -19.58983

  20 lags -10.21073 -10.31103 -10.35710

       

Euro      

  No lags -46.05127 -46.07716 -46.10367

  5 lags -17.92471 -17.97228 -18.02022

  20 lags -9.111516 -9.214248 -9.259299

Engle and Granger Test of Cointegration of LN(Price)

Dependent Variable (X)

Independent Variable (Y)

b0 t-stat

Gold Oil -0.009211 -2.920998

Oil Gold -0.010399 -3.122336

       

Gold Euro -0.003219 -1.723030

Euro Gold -0.003753 -1.950192

       

Oil Euro -0.006973 -2.584827

Euro Oil -0.006324 -2.512779

Error-Correction Model (ECM) for Testing for Long-Term and Short-Term Relationship

• The model is:

t

T

jjtjtj

T

iitititt XXdYYcZaX

11

1111

Long term relationships

• Cannot reject a long term relationship between Oil and Gold

• Also, cannot reject a long term relationship between the Euro and Gold

• Finally, cannot reject a long term relationship between Oil and the Euro

Results of Time Series Analysis

• Random Walks Confirmed

• Cointegration Confirmed

• Oil Prices are Driven by Gold and the Euro

From Time Series to Neural Network

Dependent Variable Reg. Top 5 Variables NN Top 5 Variables

Euro

LEuroM1 LEuroM1

LGoldM1 LGoldM1

LGoldM2 LGoldM2

LEuroM3 LOilM1

LEuroM4 LOilM2

Oil

LOilM1 LOilM1

LEuroM5 LOilM2

LGoldM1 LGoldM1

LEuroM3 LGoldM2

LGoldM3 LEuroM5

Gold

LGoldM1 LGoldM1

LOilM1 LOilM1

LOilM2 LOilM2

LEuroM2 LGoldM2

LEuroM4 LEuroM4

Conclusions

• From Old Independent Relationships

• To New Interrelated Relationships

• More work needed to study relationships during the financial crisis