Slide 1

GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh National Center for Atmospheric Research With acknowledgements to Timothy Schmit (CIMSS) Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS) May 12, 2004 Slide 2 Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow Automated Aviation Wx Products/Guidance Volcanic Ash Turbulence (clear air, convectively-induced, terrain-i) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Winds (flight level and below) Convection (initiation, diagnosis, nowcast, forecast) Space Weather (health/comm hazards) FAA AWRP NCAR, MIT, FSL, NRL, others. NASA AvSP, ASAP, CIMSS. NOAA NESDIS, NCEP, AWC, others. Funding, Personnel, Data, Techniques, R&D. Slide 3 AWRP Aviation Wx Products Volcanic Ash Turbulence (CAT, CIT) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Convection Winds (flight level and below) Space Weather (health/comm) Test Products NCAR, MIT websites for structured user trials. Operational Products NOAA AWC Operational home & distribution point. Operational Users FAA Flight Service Stations Airline met/dispatch depts. Airport operators Air traffic met support (CWSU) Pilot / cockpit Commercial Av. Wx. services Volcanic ash centers (VAACs) Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow Slide 4 AWRP Aviation Wx Products Volcanic Ash Turbulence (CAT, CIT) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Convection Winds Space Weather (health/comm) Aviation Weather Product Overview Current: VA SIGMET display Future: VA analysis & fcst. Current: CAT fcst product.Current: Icing fcst product. Slide 5 AWRP Aviation Wx Products Volcanic Ash Turbulence (CAT, CIT) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Convection Winds Space Weather (health/comm) Aviation Weather Product Overview Current: C&V test product.Current: Convective nowcast.Future: Improved 3-D winds.Possible Future: Polar route space wx. Slide 6 EXPERT SYSTEM-BASED FORECAST BLENDING PROCESS (Weighted Simple Additive Model) Display: Website, ADDS, Cockpit, Other. Analysis and/or Forecast Product PIREPS&AIREPS Climat- ology Other Other Forecasts Nowcasts, or methods. Future methods & sources. NWP INPUT - RUC - Eta - GFS - Other Relevant Obs - - METARS - RAOBS - Radar - Others GOES & GOES Products POES & POES Products DATABASE FORECAST COMPONENT PERFORMANCE. FORECAST INTEGRATION WEIGHTS Based on recent forecastperformance. Feedback Loop Generalized AWRP Product Synthesis Slide 7 GOES-R Enabling CapabilityImpact on Av. Products - Turbulence Likelihood field. - Convective initiation, nowcast, forecast. Resolution: mountain waves GOES-8Simulated GOES-R Ozone Detection (Schmidt & Li) - New 9.6 m ABI channel for obs at high temporal/spatial resolution. - HES ozone accuracy. - Synergistic ABI/HES use. Turbulence Likelihood field via tropopause folding. Water Vapor Tracer (Wimmers) - Synergistic ABI/HES use. HES/ABI Sounding Improvement - 4-D improvement in stability, winds, moisture. - Turbulence Likelihood field. Slide 8 GOES-R Enabling CapabilityImpact on Av. Products Cloud Properties - Cloud masking - Cloud top height/temperature - Cloud top phase (ice/water) Critical Improvement to: - Ceiling and visibility products - In-flight icing products Critical Improvement to: - Convective Nowcasting - Diagnosis of severe oceanic Conv. - Convective storm evolution. - Improved NWP initialization. - Early volc eruption alert? (Electrified eruption cloud) Geo Lightning Mapper Fog & Low Cloud Detection GOES-10Simulated GOES-R Critical to: - Airport ops - Overnight flts - AM ops Slide 9 A Focus on GOES-R Impacts Volcanic Ash GOES-R Enabling Capabilities ABI - All spectral channels for ash (8) Key IR upper-level SO 2 (7.3, 8.5 m) Spatial & temporal resolution (5-15 min; 0.5-2 km) - Continuity for plume tracking - Resolution for hot spot analysis HES/ABI Satwinds for plume tracking. Temp/wind profiles for plume heights. CO 2 slicing for plume heights. Others.. Intermediate GOES-R Products Slide 10 Enabling Intermediate GOES-R Products for VA Ellrod RGB-rendered ash analysis adjusted for day and night. Upper-level SO 2 with ABI 15 min frequency. Thermal hot-spot monitoring for eruption alert. AWRP Product Value Added: - Fusion - Automation, animation - User interface - Edit/display tools - History database - etc. Automated guidance/support to AWC, VAACs, others. Slide 11 .. and many more impacts and opportunities to improve aviation safety and efficiency.