Goals & Objectives Objectives: Understand probable effects of natural and anthropogenic hazards...
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Transcript of Goals & Objectives Objectives: Understand probable effects of natural and anthropogenic hazards...
![Page 1: Goals & Objectives Objectives: Understand probable effects of natural and anthropogenic hazards Identify reliability & resilience projects Understand benefit-cost.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56649e955503460f94b99be3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Goals & Objectives
Objectives:• Understand probable effects of natural and
anthropogenic hazards• Identify reliability & resilience projects• Understand benefit-cost of projects• Prioritize projects
For Everett’s Water Supply System . . . Goal–Reliable water supply with
resiliency
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Components Studied
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Natural Hazards AssessedEarthquakesLandslidesFloodsTsunamisVolcanic eruptionsWatershed firesSevere weather (wind, snow, ice)Climate change
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Other Significant HazardsLandslides: threats to Spada and Chaplain
reservoirs and damsFloods: potential threats to above ground
transmission lines on Ebey IslandTsunamis: conflicting study results, potential threats
to above ground transmission lines on Ebey IslandVolcanic Eruptions: ash fall hazard, potential threat
to operability of Water Filter Plant
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Anthropogenic HazardsThreats from insidersExplosionsFiresSabotageArmed attacksDisruption of IT,
SCADA, or communications systems
ContaminationForced entryCivil disorderCompromise of
personnelAirplane crash in
reservoir
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Improvement ProgramsIP-1: enhance emergency planning, enhance
mutual aid, complete additional studies to refine vulnerability assessment and finalize mitigation priorities
IP-2: Upgrades for:Chaplain Reservoir and South Dam, Sultan River
Diversion, Water Filter Plant, Transmission Lines 3 and 5, Reservoir 3, and other items
IP-3: Upgrades for:WFP new flocculation basin, Transmission Lines 2 and
4, Reservoirs 2 & 6
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Improvement Programs
IP 1 - Emergency preparedness measures & studies to refine findings
IP 2 - Upgrades to meet goals for maximum earthquake (2,475 return period) events
IP 3 - Fully upgrade system for maximum earthquake (2,475 return period) events
IP 1 IP 2 IP 30
10
20
30
40
50
60
$ (Million)
≈ $1.3
≈ $38.0
≈ $47.7
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Damages and LossesMajor Categories:
o Economic impacts on customers from loss of water service: by far the largest category!
o Damage to water system infrastructureMinor/Negligible Categories
o Secondary damages from failures of water system infrastructure
o Deaths and injurieso Water Revenue Loss
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Scenario Damages and Losses
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Benefit-Cost Results - 1As-Is Water Supply System $10,460,872After Mitigation: IP-1 $5,181,673
Annualized Benefits $5,279,199Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $135,833,801Cost Estimate: IP-1 $1,318,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 103.06
As-Is Water Supply System $10,460,872After Mitigation: IP-1 and IP-2 $752,383
Annualized Benefits $9,708,489Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $249,799,430Cost Estimate: IP-1 and IP-2 $39,317,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 6.35
As-Is Water Supply System $10,460,872After Mitigation: IP-1 and IP-2 $203,272
Annualized Benefits $10,257,601Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $263,928,061Cost Estimate: IP-1 and IP-2 $87,052,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 3.03
IP-1
IP-1 and IP-2
IP-1, IP-2 and IP-3
Average Annual Damages and Losses
Average Annual Damages and Losses
Average Annual Damages and Losses
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Benefit-Cost Results - 2
After Mitigation: IP-1 $5,181,673After Mitigation: IP-2 $752,383
Annualized Benefits $4,429,290Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $113,965,630Cost Estimate: IP-2 Only $37,999,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 3.00
After Mitigation: IP-2 $752,383After Mitigation: IP-3 $203,272
Annualized Benefits $549,111Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $14,128,631Cost Estimate: IP-3 Only $47,735,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 0.30
Incremental for IP-2 after IP-1Average Annual Damages and Losses
Incremental for IP-3 after IP-2Average Annual Damages and Losses
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Overall findings: HazardsEarthquakes have the greatest effect:
oLikely to meet goals for probable eventsoUpgrades needed to meet goals for
maximum events, estimated at ~$40 MMinor effects of other hazards relative to
meeting goals