Globo.com Weekly Talks - Sprint Risk Forecasting
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Transcript of Globo.com Weekly Talks - Sprint Risk Forecasting
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globo.comSprint risk forecasting
2Thursday, November 1, 12
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e se fosse possível prever o resultado do seu sprint...?
3Thursday, November 1, 12
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Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss
(an undesirable outcome). [...] Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks". Almost any
human endeavor carries some risk.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk
got risk?6Thursday, November 1, 12
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“Risk Management is part of Prince2, part of PMBOK, and part of the CMMI, but you don't o!en see it addressed
explicitly in books on agile methods. I think that's strange.”
Jurgen Appelo8Thursday, November 1, 12
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Risk MatrixRisk RegisterRisk Rating
Risk Mitigation
Agile Risk MatrixAgile Risk RegisterAgile Risk Rating
Agile Risk Mitigation
10Thursday, November 1, 12
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Risk MatrixRisk RegisterRisk Rating
Risk Mitigation
Agile Risk MatrixAgile Risk RegisterAgile Risk Rating
Agile Risk Mitigation
10Thursday, November 1, 12
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BULLSHIT!BULLSHIT!
BULLSHIT!11Thursday, November 1, 12
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... agile so!ware development is a risk management strategy, because all principles of risk management are
nicely covered when you've implemented an agile process.
Boris Gloger14Thursday, November 1, 12
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Project risk management‣ Risk management do planejamento do projeto (Product Backlog)
‣ Forecast que monitora quantos sprints temos em backlog
‣ Numero ótimo: maior que 2,5 menor que 4
‣ Inventado pelo Danilo Bardusco
Backlog Total
Velocidade média * 3Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
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Backlog ready - exemplo‣ Velocity:
‣ 25 story points
‣ Product backlog no início do sprint:
‣ 120 story points
‣ Backlog ready:
‣ 120 / (25 * 3) = 160%
‣ Signi!ca que no início deste sprint, havia backlog para 4.8 sprints
Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready18Thursday, November 1, 12
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Backlog ready - na prática
Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
1 2 3 4 5 6
40%
71%88%
118%
170%187%
Backlog ready
Backlog ready Minimo desejável
19Thursday, November 1, 12
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e se fosse possível prever o resultado do seu sprint...?
20Thursday, November 1, 12
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Sprint risk forecasting
21Thursday, November 1, 12
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Sprint risk forecasting
Complexidade média Taxa de sucesso
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Risk management do planejamento do sprint (Sprint Backlog)
‣ Métrica de forecast do sprint
‣ Numero ótimo: depende do time
‣ Inventado por mim
Insight - há uma relação inversa entre o tamanho médio das histórias planejadas no sprint backlog e a taxa de entrega do sprint!
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/22Thursday, November 1, 12
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Complexidade média:
‣ Média aritmética do sprint backlog (início do sprint)
‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos, 7 histórias
‣ Complexidade média: 26/7 = 3.25
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/23Thursday, November 1, 12
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Taxa de sucesso
‣ % de pontos entregues de fato, em relação ao planejado
‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos
‣ Complexidade entregue: 27 pontos (time entregou um ponto a mais do que o planejado)
‣ Taxa de sucesso: (26/27)*100 = 104%
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/24Thursday, November 1, 12
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Tamanho médio - na prática
Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
0
1
2
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 50%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
104% 107% 100%
69% 77%
3.3 3.2
4.0
5.6
4.9
Tamanho média das histórias
Complexidade Media Taxa de sucesso
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E daí?
26Thursday, November 1, 12
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ É possível prever o resultado do sprint (taxa de sucesso)
baseado em dados históricos!
‣ Regressão linear simples (least square estimates),
‣ Entrada = complexidade média das histórias do sprint atual.
‣ Entrada = histórico de compl. média & taxa de sucesso
‣ Saída = forecast da taxa de sucesso do sprint que está começando
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/27Thursday, November 1, 12
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Sprint risk forecasting
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sprints 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Compl. planejada
Compl. entregue
Qtd planejado
Qtd entregueComplexidade MediaTaxa de sucesso
20 32 16 17 37 30 36 40 47 50 34 51 19 21 45 24 40 41
50 43 9 32 29 35 31 40 53 62 46 46 20 24 45 34 42 47
4 9 6 5 12 8 9 8 14 17 10 16 9 10 20 10 14 14
20 17 6 13 13 13 8 9 17 22 14 17 10 13 21 15 15 18
1.00 1.88 2.67 1.31 2.85 2.31 4.50 4.44 2.76 2.27 2.43 3.00 1.90 1.62 2.14 1.60 2.67 2.28
250% 134% 56% 188% 78% 117% 86% 100% 113% 124% 135% 90% 105% 114% 100% 142% 105% 115%
19o Sprint:Complexidade planejada: 48Quantidade de histórias: 16Complexidade média: 3
Taxa de sucesso prevista:102%
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Sprint risk forecasting in action
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Taxa de sucesso prevista Nível de risco
maior ou igual a 95% Baixo
entre 95% e 80% Médio
entre 80% e 70% Alto
menor que 70% Fujam para as colinas!
31Thursday, November 1, 12
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Massa de dados:
‣ Coleta em 2 times por 18 sprints (G1 e Ego)
‣ Coleta em 3 times por 9 sprints, e contando (Webmedia)
‣ Slideshare: http://slidesha.re/Q7KjVy
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/32Thursday, November 1, 12
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globo.com
33Thursday, November 1, 12