Global Trends & the Next 25 Years of Sustainable Agriculture

The 2014 Update Global MegatrendsDr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist

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Different Types of Futures

Source: Voros (2003) adapted this diagram from Hancock and Bezold (1994) in the Healthcare Forum Journal

Now Probable

Plausible

Possible

The Future

More Than ForecastingDifference Between Actual and Forecast Oil Prices (US Govt Dept of Energy)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Impo

rted

Cru

de O

il Pr

ice

(Nom

inal

U

SD p

er B

arre

l)

Actual Oil Price

Forecast Oil Price

Source: United States Government, Department of Energy

Presentation title | Presenter name |

More from lessThe opportunities and risks stemming

from resource scarcity and supply-demand imbalances

Going, going, … gone? A window of opportunity to protect habitats, biodiversity and the global

climate

The silk highwayThe growth of emerging economies,

globalisation, urbanisation and human mobility

Forever youngAn ageing population, longer

lifespans, rising healthcare expenditure and retirement

pressures

Digital immersionLife deeper in the information era

with technology, connectivity, data volumes and digital natives

on the rise

Great expectationsThe all important and personalised experience-factor in a world with

limitless choice

Megatrends The 2014 Revision

Why a Venn Diagram?Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future

Ice Cream

Car TripChildren

Use activity books and

games

Take normal care

Effective strategy not yet identified

by humankind

Use serviettes

Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?

Innovation, Productivity and ProsperityWe need new & bigger ideas to refuel the economy

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

20112013

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

Mul

tifac

tor P

rodu

ctivi

ty

We do need to head back in this direction soonish

Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 5204.0 Australian System of National Accounts

Read “The Great Stagnation – How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better“ by Tyler Cowen

1. More From Less

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.

- Neil Armstrong

Data source: United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization

More From LessFood demand, supply and prices

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20140

50

100

150

200

250

FAO

Foo

d Pr

ice

Inde

x

More From LessFood Prices, Food Security and Stability

IMAGE AND DATA SOURCE: Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (2011) The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. Physics and Society.

Global energy demand one-third.

Fossil fuel share from 82% to 76%.

Low carbon sources (renewables, nuclear...) are 40% of growth

Over 50% of net-increase in electricity generation from renewables

Growth led by China this decade but shifts to India, Southeast Asia and Middle East post 2020.

Biofuel use triples from 1.3 million barrels/day to 4.1 million barrels/day

More From LessWorld Energy Demand, Headline Statistics Now to 2035

Data source: International Energy Agency, 2013

More From LessDeclining Energy Intensity in Australia, All Industries

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-122,300

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

2,550

Gig

ajou

les p

er $

mill

ions

Indu

stry

Va

lue

Add

More money from less energy due to technology innovation & growth in services.

Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Energy Account

The service sector of the economy needs only one-tenth of the energy used by other sectors to make $1 million.

More From LessDeclining Gold Ore Grade – We’ve dug up all the good stuff

Data Source: United Nations Environment Program 2011, Metal Recycling Report

2010199019701950

1930191018901870

1850

1835

50

40

30

20

10

Go

ld O

re G

rad

e (

g/t

Au

)

More From LessMining above the ground

One tonne of ore body yields 1-5 grams of gold

One tonne of old computer circuits yields

250 grams of gold.

Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy, March 28 2014. How to create wealth from waste. Images CSIRO.

More From LessExtent of Mineral Resources in Emerging Economies

Data Source: United States Geological Survey (2012)

More From LessTransition to knowledge exports – Pittsburgh’s story from selling ingots to selling ideas

Source: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society; Treado (2009)

Chicago Pittsburgh Detroit Cleveland0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20Share of Steel Making Capacity

Share of Steel Technology Firms

Shar

e of

US

Tota

l in

2003

(per

cent

)

2. Going, Going … Gone?

The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.

Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

Going, Going… Gone?

Going, Going … Gone?

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

Going, Going … Gone?The Red List



Red List Extinction Risk Index

1 = No concern

0 = Extinct

Going, Going… Gone?Arctic Sea Ice


Data source: Bureau of Meteorology

Going, Going, … Gone?Rising Temperatures

1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Max

imum

Tem

pera

ture

, Deg

rees

Cel

sius

2030 2050

Difference from average maximum

Coral area is shrinking by 0.5% per year.

Only 50% of original coral area remains today.

Culprits are tropical cyclones (48%), crown of thorns starfish (42%), coral bleaching (10%) plus other factors.

Without these 3 things it would be growing by 2.85% per year.

Image Source: Microsoft Clipart, Data Source: De’ath, G, KE Fabricius, H Sweatman, and M Puotinen, 2012. The 27–year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Going, Going, … Gone?The Great Barrier Reef

Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put


3. The Silk Highway

The Silk HighwayA Shifting World Economy

Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

The Silk HighwayA Recent Phenomenon - The Population Explosion


-10000 -9000 -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 20000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Date from -10,000 (BC) to 2100 (AD)Hu

man

Pop

ulati

on (B

illio

ns)

The year 2100

Today

The year 1900

20002010

20202030

20402050

20602070

20802090

21006.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.5

10.0

Billi

ons o

f Peo

ple

This Century ...

The vast bulk of new arrivals are in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Europe shrinks after 2050.

US Govtcensus.gov

Source: World Bank Indicators

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Ave

rage

Inco

me,

Wor

ld (U

S D

olla

rs P

er C

apita

, Cur

rent

Pric

es)

Income GrowthIt’s not just more people, it’s more people with greater buying power

The Silk HighwayMaking Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years

Presentation title | Presenter name | Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn

Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

http://www.upla.cn/

Change in ChinaFrom the early 1990s to the late 2000s China changed it’s share of the world’s ...

Champagne imports from 0.1% to 0.3%

Gross Domestic Product from 3.5% to 11.4%

Steel production from 12.4% to 38.8%

Poor people living on less than US$1.25 per day from 37.6% to 15.1%

Trademarks (held by residents) from 5.9% to 31.7%

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

The Silk HighwayAn Economy in Transition

Source: The Reserve Bank of Australia

The Silk HighwayExpenditure on Research and Development in China

Source: OECD

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

Bill

ions

The Silk HighwayWill India pick up the slack?

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

IndiaChina

Urb

an A

nnua

l Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

)

Source: United Nations Urbanisation Prospects

The Silk HighwayRegional Activity - Global Jet Travel

North America China Europe Europe – North America

Southeast Asia South America0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2012 2032

Reve

nue

Pass

enge

r Ki

lom

etre

s (B

illio

ns)

Data Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook

The silk HighwayThe Offshoring Trend

Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

The silk HighwayThe Offshoring Trend

In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month

Data source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation

The Silk HighwayEmerging Food Markets, can’t sell garlic to China but can sell fish, tropical fruit ...

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Export Value

Import Value

Trade Balance (exports less imports)

US

Dol

lars

, Mill

ions

4. Forever YoungAs you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.

- Audrey Hepburn

Forever YoungThe Ageing Population – Australia

Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

It will be 25% by 2050

Forever YoungThe Ageing Population in Japan

By 2050 Japan’s population will be 40% over 70 years old

Forever YoungRetirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement

Source: Rice Warner

Forever YoungThe Rise of Chronic Illness

In 2002 59% of deaths worldwide were from non-communicable illness.

It will be 69% in 2030.

Source: Mathers and Loncar, 2006.


Forever YoungDiabetes and Overweight Projections

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202020%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Prop

ortio

n of

tota

l pop

ulati

on

over

wei

ght

USA England

Spain

Austria

France

Australia

Canada

Korea

Italy

Data Source: World Masters Association

Forever YoungWanting to Stay Active and Engaged

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 20130

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Toronto, Canada

Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark

Brisbane, Australia

Portland, Oregon, USA

Melbourne, Australia

Edmonton, Canada

Sydney, Australia

Num

ber

of C

ompe

titor

s

Forever YoungRising Healthcare Expenditure

Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship

Today we spend 20 percent of all

government taxes in Australia on

healthcare.

By the year 2043 it will be 40 percent.

Forever YoungRising Healthcare Expenditure

Cardiovascular Mental Neurological Cancer Diabetes0

5

10

15

20

25

9.3

5.2 4.73.5

1.6

22.6

12.1

21.5

10.1

8.6

2002–03 2032–33

Expe

nditu

re P

er Y

ear (

A$ B

illio

ns)

Source: ACE–Prevention: Deakin University and University of Queensland.

Forever YoungLonger LifespansAverage today is currently 79.9 years for a boy and 84.3 years for a girl. Will exceed 100 years later this century at current linear trend.

Regenerative MedicineGenetic DiagnosticsOrgan Printing

Diabetes Type II

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

5. Digital Immersion

The number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit, at the same

cost, doubles every 1.5 years.

Data source: Moore’s Law, Moore (1965) Electronica, Vol 38Image source: Microsoft clipart

Digital ImmersionMoore’s Law

Digital ImmersionThe falling cost of sequencing a human genome

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 201302468

101214161820

Log

Scal

e - U

SD M

illio

ms

Moore’s Law

Data Source: National Human Genome Research Institute, Sequencing Costs

Digital ImmersionRay Kurzweil and The Second Half of the Chessboard

Creative Commons Photo by Michael Lutch. - Photo by Michael Lutch. Courtesy of Kurzweil Technologies, Incorporated.

Digital ImmersionArtificial Intelligence & Machine Learning The Story of IBM’s Computer Watson on Jeopardy

Source: D.A. Ferrucci - IBM Journal of Research and Development

Clue (category explorers): On hearing of the discovery of George Mallory’s body, he told reporters he still thinks he was first.

Answer: Who is “Sir Edmund Hillary”

Digital ImmersionWatson on Jeopardy

Source: D.A. Ferrucci - IBM Journal of Research and Development

Ken Jennings: “I for one welcome our new computer overlords”


Automation Outside the Factory

Image Source: Wikipedia Commons

500,000 kms accident freeLaws in Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan

Digital ImmersionEmergent Properties of Networks

Source: Wikipedia Commons (Opte Project) and Evans, D., The Internet of Things: How the Next Evolution of the Internet is Changing Everything, 2011, CISCO.

The number of devices connected to the Internet exceeded the number of people on Earth in 2010.

By 2020, this ratio is predicted to increase to almost 7:1.

From 6 to 3 Degrees of SeparationThe New World of Connectivity

Image source: Microsoft Clipart


Every day 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created; 90% of the data available today was created in the last two years (IBM).


Mobile Phones in Kerala, India between 1997 - 2001Robert Jensen, Quarterly Journal of Economics

Reduction in price dispersion Elimination of waste Consumer and producer welfare improved

The Changing Job MarketInsights from the United States of America

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 200935

40

45

50

55

60

65

70Routine manualNonroutine manualRoutine cognitiveNonroutine analyticNonroutine interpersonal

Mea

n ta

sk in

put (

inde

x)


Percentile of the 1960s level

6. Great ExpectationsNow, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations.

- Charles Dickens

Great ExpectationsMaslow’s Hierarchy

Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others

Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering

Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property

Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking

Self

Actualization -

Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem

solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts

Great ExpectationsUtility - A non-linear relationship

Beers (schooners)

Happiness (utility)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

K

Not likely

More likely

Great Expectations The rise (and continued rise) of the experience economy

Source: Pine, BJ and Gilmore, JH (1998) Welcome to the experience economy. Harvard Business Review

Basic Expectations

24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)

33% of people in urban slums

15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry

United Nations, 2012

Thank youDr Stefan Hajkowicz

Principal Scientist

CSIRO DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES FLAGSHIP | DIGITAL ECONOMY

Connect with me on Linked In

Or have coffee with me at the Ecosciences Precinct in Brissy

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Global Trends & the Next 25 Years of Sustainable Agriculture

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