Global Trends in Clean Energy Investment · MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER:...

MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESMENT

CLEAN ENERGY MINISTERIAL DELHI, 17 APRIL 2013 Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance Twitter: @MLiebreich

MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 2 / / / /

$54bn

$80bn

$114bn

$164bn

$191bn $187bn

$251bn

$302bn$269bn

48%43%

45%

16%-2%

34%

20% -11%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004–12 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions


NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION 2004–12 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D

7.114.2

28.9

40.8 39.0

27.1

41.8

63.1

40.3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

North America & Caribbean

0.83.5 5.4

11.114.5

10.312.9

9.9 10.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Central & South America

18.028.5

36.5

58.4

70.7 73.2

97.8108.0

75.8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Europe

0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.7 1.64.9 4.2

11.8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Middle East & Africa

9.515.2

22.430.6

39.947.3

66.8

87.1

100.7

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Asia & Oceania


TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN 2012 AND % CHANGE ON 2011 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D

2.95

3.42

4.05

4.31

4.41

5.34

5.46

6.19

6.85

8.34

14.71

16.28

22.80

35.58

65.13

-68%

179%

11%

-34%

-23%

-32%

20563%

40%

-45%

-17%

-51%

75%

-27%

-37%

20%

Spain

Greece

Belgium

France

Canada

Brazil

South Africa

Australia

India

United Kingdom

Italy

Japan

Germany

United States

China


8.8 8.7 8.110.112.0

17.313.7

19.019.3

21.221.0

32.8

27.229.7

35.2

50.3

34.6

47.341.8

43.1

25.9

46.245.4

42.1

48.0

53.557.0

65.7

55.8

77.573.5

65.5

52.0

62.458.7

65.4

40.6

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 '13

Four quarter running average

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004–Q1 2013 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D. Includes small distributed capacity & adjustment for re-invested equity.

MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 6 / / / / Note: Values as of 10 April 2013; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2003 – 2013 YTD

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

S&P 500 NASDAQ NEX


CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, 2006–12 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Note: Clean energy total excludes large hydro. Fossil fuel is investment on coal and gas capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal and 4%/yr for gas.

Clean energy

Fossil fuel

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


PV EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976-2012 2012 $/W

Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.

MW

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

historic prices (Maycock) experience curveChinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Thin-film experience curveFirst Solar thin-film module cost

1976

1985

2003

2006

2012 2012

PV MODULE PRICES HAVE FALLEN 80% SINCE 2008

20% IN 2012 ALONE


DEMAND VERSUS HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MODULE PRODUCTION (GW)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Supply scenarios based on continued 2012 utilisation rates.

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Supply - crystalline silicon Supply - thin-film siliconSupply - thin film non-silicon Demand - conservativeDemand - optimistic

Historical Future

Current cell manufacturing capacity


AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND, 1984-2012 (€/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool Note: Learning curve (blue line) is least square regression: R2 = 0.88 and 14% learning rate.

14%

1984

1990

20002004

2012

10

50

100

500

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000MW

WIND TURBINE PRICES HAVE FALLEN 29% SINCE

2008

MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 11 / / / / Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GRID-COMPETITIVE CLEAN ENERGY

=

Natural Gas at $6/MMBtu

=

New coal

Best Wind

MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 12 / / / / Picture credits: Tod Baker via Creative Commons; NASA, NOAA, CERES

$4.16 NATURAL GAS, USA, 16 APRIL 2013


GLOBAL GAS PRICES ($/MMBTU)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Japan LNG Corp, German Federal Office of Economics and Export Control

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20S

ep 0

7D

ec 0

7M

ar 0

8Ju

n 08

Sep

08

Dec

08

Mar

09

Jun

09S

ep 0

9D

ec 0

9M

ar 1

0Ju

n 10

Sep

10

Dec

10

Mar

11

Jun

11S

ep 1

1D

ec 1

1M

ar 1

2Ju

n 12

Sep

12

Dec

12

Mar

13

Japan LNG (average)

Henry Hub (US)

NBP spot (UK)

German average import price


2.00

3.30

4.54

4.71

4.83

7.10

9.05

10.72

12.20

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Eagle Ford

SW Marcellus

NE Marcellus

Barnett

Haynesville

$8m D&C

$11m D&C

$8m D&C

$11m D&C

Wet

US

pl

ays

Dry

US

pla

ys

UK

- 4,

250m

cfd

UK

- 2,

100m

cfd

SHALE GAS ‘FRACKING’ BREAKEVEN PRICE ($/MMBTU)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Various Note: Assumes 15% equity IRR. UK assumes $8m Drilling & Completion cost; 2000-4250 mcfd dry production (per Marcellus and Eagle Ford); 20% royalty rate; usual tax treatment

16 April 2013 Henry Hub

$4.16/MMBTU

UK likely shale gas price range


LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE

Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EV BATTERY PRICES HAVE FALLEN 40% SINCE

2010

Cost-competitiveness (on total ownership basis)


NUMBERS OF SMART METERS WORLDWIDE (MILLIONS)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

107

201

283

374

472

563

630

699

2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e

Rest of world

Japan

China

EU 27

NorthAmerica

Forecast Historic


CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: Global Futures figures from 2008 restated to reflect current investment calculation methodology



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

2 to 3x Growth in Clean Energy Investment for

Peak CO2 Emissions by 2020




CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT VOLUMES BY REGIONAL FLOW, 2004 – H1 2012 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: new build asset finance for renewable energy projects only. Investment volumes show cross-border (or foreign) investments only. Domestic investments are excluded here.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1 2012

North/South South/South South/North North/North

10x Growth to meet $100bn Copenhagen

Commitment

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH TWITTER: @MLiebreich

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