BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT · 2014. 4. 8. · FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 8 APRIL 2014...

Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 Twitter: @Mliebreich #BNEF2014 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY

FINANCE SUMMIT

NEW YORK

8 APRIL 2014

TWITTER: @MLIEBREICH #BNEF2014

MICHAEL LIEBREICH

CHAIRMAN OF THE ADVISORY BOARD

Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 Twitter: @Mliebreich #BNEF2014 2 / / / /

$55bn

$80bn

$116bn

$167bn

$195bn $196bn

$262bn

$318bn$286bn

$254bn

46%

45%

44%

17%0.6%

34%

21%-10%

-11%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D,

and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics).

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY

2004-2013 ($BN)


$55bn

$80bn

$116bn

$167bn

$195bn $196bn

$262bn

$318bn$286bn

$254bn

46%

45%

44%

17%0.6%

34%

21%-10%

-11%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D,

and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics).


2004-2013 ($BN)



12.119.4

36.446.0 47.8

39.0

54.8

75.6

58.9 56.0

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

North America & Caribbean

17.6 22.228.9

39.049.3

61.9

78.1

103.1108.9

120.6

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Asia & Oceania

0.9 3.8 5.812.3 15.6

10.5 13.4 12.6 12.3 9.6

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Central & South America

0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 1.5 4.5 3.511.0 10.0

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Middle East & Africa

23.834.0

44.1

68.079.3 82.8

110.8123.2

95.1

57.8

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Europe


2004-2013 ($BN)



Comprehensive review under way

Retroactive changes implemented (2010-13)Retroactive changes implemented (2010 -13)

Suspended

Comprehensive review under way

Suspended

EUROPEAN POLICY SUPPORT SCHEMES UNDER REVIEW

2013



10.8 12.0 13.5 16.0 18.124.9

31.2

41.5

54.0

63.8

80.888.1

82.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS

2001-13 (GW)


THE CLEANTECH CRASH?

Source: Tesla, Nest, OPower



NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 – 2014 YTD

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Ja

n 1

3

Feb 1

3

Ma

r 13

Apr

13

Ma

y 1

3

Ju

n 1

3

Ju

l 13

Aug

13

Sep

13

Oct 1

3

Nov 1

3

Dec 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Feb 1

4

Ma

r 14

NEX

S&P 500

Dow Jones

MSCI World &Emerging

NEX

S&P 500

Dow Jones

MSCI World &Emerging

Note: Values as of 30 March 2014; indices rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013.


PRICE COMPETITIVE CLEAN ENERGY:

2014 (LCOE)


37 $/MWh

onshore wind

80 $/MWh

solar

37 $/MWh

geothermal

Note: Levelised cost of electricity excludes impact of subsidies.



Note: based on a high level calculation of global figures for all renewable energy sectors.

Impacts of regional and sector shifts are internalised here.

$251.5 bn

$ 191.7bn

-20%

-4.7%

Investment 2011 Price impact Volume impact Investment 2013

DRIVERS OF REDUCED ASSET INVESTMENT

2011-2013



10.8 12.0 13.5 16.0 18.124.9

31.2

41.5

54.0

63.8

80.888.1

82.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


2001-2013 (GW)



10.8 12.0 13.5 16.0 18.124.9

31.2

41.5

54.0

63.8

80.888.1

82.2

102.9

112.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2013-2015

Installations forecast

to grow 37%


2001-2013 (GW)



FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES

GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS

2010 – 2030 (GW)

10687 78

6452

39

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Forecast

6083

107

155

196

264

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar

Wind

Biomass& waste

Geotherm.

Forecast


2014 BNEF SUMMIT THEME

PHASE CHANGE:

NEW MARKET STRUCTURES

NEW BUSINESS MODELS


PHASE CHANGE

Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary

Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete

transition of that system to another state.


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thermal

Otherrenewables

Biomass- &liquids

PV

Wind

Hydro

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BMWI

Q1 2014:

Renewable energy

provided 28% of German

electricity

ENERGIEWENDE 1: CHANGES IN GENERATING MIX

(TWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Note: Investment figures includes asset finance and small distributed capacity

investment. Biofuels and other non-power generation sectors excluded.

78.7 8.8

12.213.5

21.1

33.2

29.4

22.4

9.8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other

Wind

Solar

Cumulative capex spent

2004 – 2014

$166 billion

ENERGIEWENDE 2: INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER

GENERATING CAPACITY ($ BN)


ENERGIEWENDE 3: CAPACITY VS. POWER CONSUMPTION


0

200

400

600

800

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

TWhGW

Fossil and nuclear

Renewables


ENERGIEWENDE 3: CAPACITY VS. POWER CONSUMPTION


0

200

400

600

800

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

TWhGW

Fossil and nuclear

Renewables

Gross powerconsumption

2000 – 2014

Power consumption + 3.5%

Generating Capacity

+ 44.7%


ENERGIEWENDE 4: IMPACT ON RETAIL PRICES

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg L.P., BSW Solar, Eurostat, Federal Communications Commission

US FIXED LINE VS. MOBILE PRICES

($/MIN)

GERMAN FIT VS. RESIDENTIAL POWER

PRICES (EUR/MWH)

Feed-in tariff

<10kW

Res. power price

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Mobile

Land line

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1993 2000 2007


ENERGIEWENDE 5: IMPACT ON WHOLESALE PRICES

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg L.P.

DARK SPREADS (EUR/MWH) SPARK SPREADS (EUR/MWH)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


ENERGIEWENDE 6: GERMANY’S FIVE QUESTIONS

“This is not a problem, it is a task.”

2. How to allocate cost between users?

3. How to remunerate the grid for new services?

4. How to ensure backup generating margin?

5. How to integrate with your neighbours?

1. How to reduce subsidy costs?


The most urgent problem

for me is management

and design of the

Energiewende.

ENERGIEWENDE 7: THE LADY’S NOT FOR TURNING

Angela Merkel

German Chancellor

September 2013


CHINA BENDING THE ARC 1: INVESTMENT


Note: Investment figures include all clean energy sectors (renewable power, biofuels, EST etc) and all new investment asset classes.

NEW CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ($ BN) WIND AND SOLAR CAPACITY ADD (GW)

6.210.3

16.3

25.4

37.940.9

56.5

63.8 61.3

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

0.0 0.82.3

4.2

9.212.0

19.016.3

28.7

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Solar

Wind


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &waste

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

2013 Renewable

energy 68% of new

capacity

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY

TECHNOLOGY 2004-13, 2020 & 2030


CHINA DECLARES WAR ON POLLUTION

Credit: Bloomberg

We will resolutely

declare war against

pollution as we declared

war against poverty

Li Keqiang

Premier of the People's Republic of China

March 2014


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &waste

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY

TECHNOLOGY 2004-13, 2020 & 2030


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14

ANNUAL SHARE OF WIND POWER IN TOTAL US GENERATION

2004 – 2013


LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

($/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: LCOE excludes impact of subsidies and other support schemes.

Onshore Wind

PV - Thin Film

PV - c-Si

CCGT

Coal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price

over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated

as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting

to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

PJM

MISO

MountainWestNEPOOL

NYISO

SPP

250 MW

US WIND PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE

H1 2008 – H2 2013 ($/MWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price

over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated

as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting

to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.

0

50

100

150

200

250


AZ

CA

CO

NM

NV

NY

TX

250 MW

US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE

H1 2008 – H2 2013 ($/MWH)



Note: This represents fund size; actual capital invested is lower and non-public. This figure

may not include all non-public deals. Does not include all third-party financiers. Each fund

contains an unknown combination of equity, tax equity or debt (or an absence of tax equity or

debt). *The $300m Clean Power Finance fund raised on 3 May 2012 does not contain tax

equity

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

Solar City

Sunrun

SunPower

Clean PowerFinanceSunEdison

Vivint

Sungevity

CUMULATIVE FUNDS CLOSED BY SELECTED THIRD-

PARTY FINANCIERS JAN 2009-MAR 2014 ($M)


SMALL SOLAR SYSTEM PRICES IN GERMANY AND CALIFORNIA

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BSW Solar, California Solar Initiative

TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($/W)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013

Average California residential

Average sub-10kW German

CALIFORNIA PREMIUM TO GERMANY

22% 29%

51%

78%

103%

127%

111%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Rest of US 'shale'

Haynesville

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME

SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD (BCFD)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Source: Bloomberg L.P., Bloomberg New Energy Finance

April 18 2012

($1.87)

Note: Prices are nominal.

Today

($4.49)

6 February 2014

($7.91)

AGE OF GAS UPDATE 2: PRICE

HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS MONTHLY SPOT PRICE ($/MMBTU)


MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS

Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources,

April 2011 Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown

Canada

UK Poland

Norway

China

Australia

South Africa 200 trillion

cubic feet

USA Mexico

Libya

Algeria

Argentina

Brazil


105,000

200

1

0 50,000 100,000 150,0000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

US

China

UK

ECONOMICS OF SHALE GAS FRACKING

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Wall Street Journal

LIKELY PRICE RANGE ($/MMBTU) NO. OF SHALE GAS WELLS FRACKED


2013: THE YEAR OF TESLA

Picture credits: Tesla


Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars.

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE

($/KWH)

EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK

PRICES HAVE FALLEN

43% SINCE 2010

2020

2030

1995

2000 2005

2010H1 2013

H1 2014

10

100

1,000

10,000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Cumulative prod.capacity (MWh)

Consumer LiB experience curve BNEF EV LiB cost forecast

Historic consumer LiB prices Historic EV battery pack prices


2020

2030

1995

2000 2005

2010H1 2013

H1 2014

10

100

1,000

10,000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Cumulative prod.capacity (MWh)

Consumer LiB experience curve BNEF EV LiB cost forecast

Historic consumer LiB prices Historic EV battery pack prices

Tesla's Gigafactory

Cost-competitiveness

(by total cost of ownership)

Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars.

EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK

PRICES HAVE FALLEN

43% SINCE 2010

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE

($/KWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Numbers are rounded.

2011 2013

206,000 (99% CAGR)

52,000

EVs

1,650,000 (52% CAGR)

715,000 Hybrids

85,000,000 (4% CAGR)

78,000,000

Total

GLOBAL ANNUAL EV SALES

2011 & 2013


Source: EIA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

PRODUCTION

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

+ 44% since 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-56% since 2004

IMPORTS

US CRUDE OIL

(M BARRELS / DAY)


US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY

Source: US DOT, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute,

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: Mpg figures are sales weighted average. Total vehicle miles grew at

2.7% CAGR between 1971 and 2007

FUEL EFFICIENCY

(MILES/GALLON)

ANNUAL VEHICLE-DISTANCE TRAVELLED

(1,000 MILES PER PERSON)

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

-8.9% since 2004

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

+9.7% since 2004


58%

+7%

-9%

-9%

-10%

-35%

Imports 2004

Population growth

Miles / person

Gallons / mile

Domestic production

Imports 2013

Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors

DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, 2004-2013

(AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION)


58%

+7%

-9%

-9%

-10%

-35%

Imports 2004

Population growth

Miles / person

Gallons / mile

Domestic production

Imports 2013





58%

+7%

-9%

-9%

-10%

-35%

Imports 2004

Population growth

Miles / person

Gallons / mile

Domestic production

Imports 2013


Increased production

reduced imports by 10%

of consumption




58%

+7%

-9%

-9%

-10%

-35%

Imports 2004

Population growth

Miles / person

Gallons / mile

Domestic production

Imports 2013


Increased production

reduced imports by 10%

of consumption

Miles driven & improved

gas mileage reduced

imports by 18% of

consumption





FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES

GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS

2010 – 2030 (GW)

10687 78

6452

39

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Forecast

6083

107

155

196

264

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar

Wind

Biomass& waste

Geotherm.

Forecast


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Th

ou

san

ds

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Th

ou

san

ds


JULY 2012 JULY 2033

GERMAN HOURLY GENERATION PROFILE,

(GW)


PHASE CHANGE

Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary

Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete

transition of that system to another state.


PHASE CHANGE – NEWSPAPER REVENUE

($M)

Source: Bloomberg L.P. Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006

Total US newspaper ad revenue ($m)

1982 Invention of

the internet

1992 Invention

of the browser

1997 Invention of

the smartphone

2006 Founding

of Twitter

24 years




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Rest of US 'shale'

Haynesville

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Rest of US 'shale'

Haynesville

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim



US TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION,

2007 – 2040 (QUADRILLION BTU)

40.6 36.0 36.9 35.6 35.4

23.725.8 27.7 30.0 32.3

22.718.9 18.6 19.0 18.7

8.57.9 8.2 8.2 8.5

5.67.2

8.4 9.3 10.3

101.796.6

100.7 103.3106.3

2007 2014 2020 2030 2040

Other

Renewable energy

Nuclear

Coal

Natural gas

Liquid fuels



US TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION,

2007 – 2040 (%)

39.9% 35.5% 36.3% 35.1% 34.8%

23.3% 26.7% 27.5% 29.1% 30.4%

22.3% 19.5% 18.4% 18.4% 17.6%

8.3%8.2% 8.1% 7.9% 8.0%

5.5% 7.4% 8.3% 9.0% 9.7%

2007 2014 2020 2030 2040

Other

Renewable energy

Nuclear

Coal

Natural gas

Liquid fuels



2014 BNEF SUMMIT THEME

PHASE CHANGE:

NEW MARKET STRUCTURES

NEW BUSINESS MODELS

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT · 2014. 4. 8. · FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 8 APRIL 2014...

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Transcript of BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT · 2014. 4. 8. · FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 8 APRIL 2014...