Global Outlook for Renewable Energy · 2017. 7. 5. · Clingendael International Energy Programme...
Transcript of Global Outlook for Renewable Energy · 2017. 7. 5. · Clingendael International Energy Programme...
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Global Outlook for Renewable Energy
Erasmus Energy Day, 29 June 2017
Maria van der Hoeven,
Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), The Hague, Netherlands
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The North SeasOffshore Grid
Sustainable Diversifiation of the
EU’s Gas Supply
The Energiewende and Germany’sIndustrial Policy
Changing Energy Markets
• At CIEP we’ve been working on changing energy markets for a while
• These and more publications are available at www.clingendaelenergy.com
Solar PV in a Strategic World
The Transition of the Residential Heating
System
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Continuing and rising energy needs?
Source: IEA (2016)
• While energy related greenhouse gas emissions need to decline...
• ... global (non-OECD) energy demand is projected to grow.
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Four Trends
Decentralization & Consumer Empowerment
Digitization as a Key Enabler
Greater Integrations & Service-Orientation
Decarbonization
Graphic courtesy of 629PHOTOGRAPHY.COM
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The Present Reality
Source: REN21 (2017)
• While renewables show significant progress and opportunities…• … it’s important to understand today’s global energy mix and RES shares.
Global Final Energy Consumption in 2015
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Policy Initiatives
1. Support innovation in market integration
2. Stable and sustainable policy frameworks
3. Reduce the cost of financing and improve risk profile
Graphic courtesy of freepik.com
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Recent RES cost developments
• Levelised cost of electricity from selected renewable energy sources• Figures showing Q3 2009 to H2 2016, USD per MWh
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2017) Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Biomass incineration
Solar thermal(parabolic trough with storage)
Solar PV
USD
/MW
h
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A few examples…
Peru, onshore wind37.30 $/MWh
NL, offshore wind80 $/MWh
Denmark, offshore wind55 $/MWh
Dubai, solar PV29.90 $/MWh
Zambia, solar PV60 $/MWh
Graphic courtesy of www.worldmapsonline.comFigures from Frankfurt School / UNEP (2017)
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Public Instruments & Mechanisms
Source: WEF (2017)
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Energy infrastructures as enablers
Graphics courtesy of TenneT and Port of Rotterdam
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Holistic Approach
Source: Carbon Trust (2015)
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Concluding Remarks
• Consistent and stable policy framework
• Involvement of industry and financial sector is key
• Societal impact of energy transition should be addressed
• Innovation is crucial
• A CO2 price should be meaningful
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The Future is in Our Hands
Image courtesy of Phil Masters @ flickr.com
Concluding Remarks
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Thank youfor your attention
Maria van der Hoeven,
Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), The Hague, Netherlands