Global Monthly January 2019

Source: World Bank. Note: Decreasing growth are changes of at least 0.1 percentage point from the previous year. Countries with a slower pace of contraction from one year to the next are included in the increasing growth category. Downgrades reflect forecasts that were downgraded between June 2018 and January 2019.

Share of countries with slower growth or forecast downgrades in 2019

Overview

According to the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report, global growth is expected to moderate to 2.9 percent this year, as global trade and manufacturing activity lose steam and borrowing conditions tighten further.

In this context, EMDE growth is expected to stall, at 4.2 percent in 2019, reflecting a faster-than-expected deceleration in major commodity importers and weaker-than-expected recovery in many exporters.

Downside risks have become more acute, as financial stress episodes could become more frequent and trade tensions could escalate. Global risks could be compounded by country-specific risks and vulnerabilities across EMDEs.

Chart of the Month

Close to 70 percent of advanced economies are expected to register weaker growth in 2019, as economic slack dissipates and policy accommodation is removed.

While activity is projected to decelerate in only one-third of EMDEs this year, growth projections were downgraded in more than 40 percent of them.

Downgrades were especially pronounced in countries most affected by currency and capital outflow pressures during 2018. Slowing external demand and rising policy uncertainty were also determining factors of forecast downgrades for some countries.

Special Focus: Debt in Low-Income Countries

Since 2013, median government debt in low-income countries has risen by 20 percentage points of GDP and increasingly comes from non-concessional and private sources.

Rising public debt leaves some LICs vulnerable to currency, interest rate, and refinancing risks. Eleven LICs are currently in debt distress or at a high risk of debt distress, compared to only six in 2015.

The Global Monthly is a publication of the Prospects Group. This edition was prepared by Marc Stocker and Collette Wheeler, based on contributions from Eung Ju Kim, Patrick Kirby, Peter Nagle, Yoki Okawa, Julia Roseman, Rudi Steinbach, Temel Taskin, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, and Sandy Ye. This Global Monthly reflects data available up to January 23. For more information, visit: www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/economic-monitoring. 

Table of Contents Monthly Highlights ............................................ 2

Special Focus ...................................................... 6

Recent Prospects Group Publications ................... 8

Recent World Bank Working Papers .................... 8

Recent World Bank Reports ................................ 8

Table A: Major Data Releases ............................. 8

Table B: Activity and Inflation ........................... 9

Table C: Trade and Finance ............................... 9

Table D: Financial Markets ............................ 10

Table E: Commodity Prices............................... 10

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January 2019

Global growth: moderating. Global growth slowed to a near three-year low of 2.4 percent (q/q saar) in 18Q3, and survey data suggest that the subdued momentum persisted in 18Q4, with the global manufacturing PMI ending the year at a 27-month low. Growth also became more uneven in 2018, with activity decelerating in close to 80 percent of advanced economies and nearly half of EMDEs (Figure 1A). Global inflation, which trended up during most of 2018, is likely to be temporarily dampened by sharp drops in oil prices observed since October. According to the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects, global growth is projected to moderate to 2.9 percent in 2019, down from an estimated 3 percent in 2018, as global investment and trade soften (Figure 1B). Growth is anticipated to slow this year in two-thirds of advanced economies and about one-third of EMDEs—including the United States, the Euro Area, and China, the world’s three largest economies.

Global trade: continued uncertainty. After reaching a six-year high of 5.4 percent in 2017, global trade growth slowed to an estimated 3.8 percent in 2018—the sharpest deceleration since 2012 (Figure 1C). Incoming data are mixed, with goods trade volumes and container shipments recovering in October, but export orders falling to a two-and-a-half year low in December. Trade tensions between the United States and China continued to weigh on confidence. New tariffs introduced in 2018 affected about 12 percent of U.S. goods imports, 6.5 percent of China’s goods imports, and 2.5 percent of global goods trade. Global trade growth is predicted to slow to 3.6 percent in 2019, as investment in major economies loses steam.

Global financing conditions: more volatile. Borrowing costs in advanced economies crept up during most of 2018, as U.S. policy interest rates rose by 100 basis points and the ECB ended its asset purchase program. U.S. long-term yields stabilized at 2.7 percent in January, up around 30 basis points from a year earlier, but down from a seven-year peak of 3.2 percent in November (Figure 2A). The recent decline reflects mounting worries about the growth outlook and expectations that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its tightening cycle. Global equity prices have experienced marked losses since October and were down about 10 percent for 2018 as a whole, dampened by concerns about global prospects amid heightened trade tensions and lower-than-expected earnings.

EMDE financing conditions: tightening. Several EMDEs were under financial pressure during 2018, fueled by a combination of

Monthly Highlights

FIGURE 1.B Global growth

FIGURE 1.C Global trade growth, volumes

Source: World Bank A. Decreasing growth are changes of at least 0.1 percentage point from the previous year. Countries with a slower pace of contraction from one year to the next are included in the increasing growth category. B.C. Shaded area indicates forecasts. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights. C. Trade measured as the average of export and import volumes.

FIGURE 1.A Share of countries with slower growth

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January 2019 U.S. dollar strength, higher borrowing costs, and concerns about softening growth. Since April 2018, cumulated outflows from emerging market bond and equity funds have surpassed those following the 2013 Taper Tantrum. International bond issuances, syndicated bank loans, and equity issuances ended the year on a subdued note. Overall, yields on EMDE debt issued on international bond markets rose by about 150 basis points in 2018—the third largest annual increase in the last two decades (Figure 2B). Various EMDE central banks responded to currency and capital outflow pressures with interest rate hikes, leading to tighter domestic borrowing conditions and, in some cases, slower credit and domestic demand growth. In January, equity prices recovered some of their December losses, while bond spreads narrowed slightly.

Commodity markets: more volatile. Oil prices fell sharply in 18Q4, after the United States announced temporary waivers to sanctions on Iran’s oil exports to eight countries, including China and India. Rising production in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States, and weakening prospects for global oil demand also contributed to downward pressures. Oil prices are forecast to average $67/bbl in 2019, slightly lower than 2018 but higher than current prices, on expectations of a lift from planned production cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day by OPEC and its partners, including Russia (Figure 2C). Prices rallied in early 2019 on news that OPEC had cut production by nearly 0.5mb/d in December, with Brent crude oil rising from a two-year low of $50/bbl in December to $62/bbl towards the end of January. Metals and most agricultural prices fell in the second half of 2018 following the imposition of new U.S. tariffs on imports from China. Industrial metals prices were particularly responsive to trade tensions, with some falling more than 20 percent.

United States: slowing growth. U.S. growth picked up in 2018, to an estimated 2.9 percent, bolstered by fiscal stimulus measures. Labor market conditions remained robust throughout the year, with nominal wage growth accelerating to reach its highest pace since 2009. However, incoming data suggest slower growth, with the manufacturing PMI in December and consumer confidence in January dropping to their lowest levels since October 2016. The government shutdown that has continued into January and is now the longest on record, could further weaken activity in the short term. U.S. growth is projected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2019, reflecting tighter financing conditions and waning fiscal support (Figure 3A). The Federal Reserve raised policy interest rates in December, to a target range of 2.25–2.5 percent, and the median forecast of Federal Open Market Committee members points to two additional hikes in 2019.

FIGURE 2.B Largest annual changes in EMDE bond yields since 2000

FIGURE 2.A U.S. sovereign bond yields

FIGURE 2.C Commodity price forecasts, nominal

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, World Bank. A. Sovereign yields reflect the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds. Last observation is January 22, 2018. B. EMDE bond yields are calculated as the sum of the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) spread and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. C. Nominal price indexes. Shaded area indicates forecast.

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January 2019 Euro Area: weakening momentum. Euro Area growth slowed notably in 2018, to an estimated 1.9 percent, amid weakening external demand. In December, the composite PMI fell to its lowest level in over five years. As monetary stimulus is gradually withdrawn and global trade growth moderates, Euro Area growth is projected to slow to 1.6 percent in 2019. The ECB has stopped its asset purchase program but has signaled that it will maintain its negative interest rate policy until at least mid-2019.

United Kingdom: high uncertainty. Uncertainty remains elevated in the United Kingdom as it is set to transition out of the European Union. The draft withdrawal treaty negotiated with European authorities was rejected in Parliament on January 15, and no alternative proposals have been made so far, despite ongoing negotiations. A no-deal Brexit could disrupt activity in the short term and might exacerbate financial stability risks in the United Kingdom and abroad.

Japan: volatile activity. Growth in Japan slowed to an estimated 0.8 percent in 2018, partly reflecting the dampening effect of natural disasters. However, the labor market remained robust, and the Bank of Japan continues to provide exceptional stimulus by keeping long-term rates near zero and adding to its balance sheet. Growth is projected at 0.9 percent in 2019, as a recovery from last year’s temporary disruptions is partly offset by prospects of weakening external demand.

China: calibrated policy measures. Growth slowed to 6.6 percent in 2018, as industrial production and exports decelerated, while consumption growth remained robust. Incoming data confirm softening momentum, with growth in 18Q4 dropping to 6.1 percent (q/q saar), and exports and imports falling sharply towards the end of the year. Stock prices, bond spreads, and the renminbi were under pressure for most of 2018 but stabilized in January, reflecting additional policy support, and a renewed commitment to accelerated structural reforms (Figure 3B). Growth is projected to moderate to 6.2 percent in 2019, with fiscal and monetary policy accommodation expected to offset the negative impact of higher U.S. trade tariffs on exports.

Other commodity-importing EMDEs: mixed. Growth moderated in about 40 percent of commodity importers in 2018, with notable declines in countries facing currency and financial market pressures. In 2019, around 50 percent are projected to decelerate—the highest proportion since 2012. The slowdown in Turkey is especially severe, from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2018 to a projected 1.6 percent in 2019 (Figure 3C). Activity has also weakened in a number of other commodity importers that experienced financial pressures or continue to face large fiscal and

FIGURE 3.B Bond spreads and equity prices in China

FIGURE 3.A Stance of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy

FIGURE 3.C Growth in major EMDE commodity importers

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Haver Analytics; Holston, Laubach, and Williams (2016); J.P. Morgan; World Bank. A. Forecasts are market expectations. The neutral rate is the nominal short-term interest rate when the economy operates at its full potential once transitory shocks have abated. Shaded area indicates forecasts. B. Bond spread measures the average spread of China’s sovereign debt over its equivalent maturity U.S. Treasury bond. Equity index is the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite. Last observation is January 22, 2018. C. Shaded areas indicate forecasts.

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January 2019 current account deficits (e.g., the Philippines, Romania). In Mexico, growth is projected to edge down in 2019, to 2 percent, on policy uncertainty and still subdued investment. In Poland, growth is expected to moderate, but to a still robust 4 percent in 2019. In India, growth picked up to an estimated 7.3 percent in FY2018/19 and is expected to increase further to 7.5 percent in FY2019/20 as domestic demand continues to strengthen.

Commodity-exporting EMDEs: stalled recovery. The recovery in many commodity exporters stagnated in 2018, reflecting decelerating external demand, tighter borrowing conditions, volatile commodity prices, and various domestic headwinds. While growth is still foreseen to accelerate in more than 60 percent of commodity exporters in 2019, it will remain, on average, less than half the pace of commodity importers. Activity in Argentina shrank by an estimated 2.8 percent in 2018, following acute financial market stress, and is expected to continue contracting in 2019, by 1.7 percent (Figure 4A). In South Africa, growth weakened to an estimated 0.9 percent in 2018 amid slow mining activity, low business confidence, and policy uncertainty. It is expected to recover to a still subdued 1.3 percent in 2019, as fiscal consolidation continues and domestic demand remains weak. Growth in Brazil was also lackluster in 2018, at an estimated 1.2 percent, reflecting in part a truckers’ strike mid-year and heightened policy uncertainty. As these factors unwind, growth is predicted to pick up to 2.2 percent in 2019. In Russia, growth was resilient in 2018, at an estimated 1.6 percent, but is expected to moderate slightly to 1.5 percent in 2019, reflecting recent oil price declines and renewed pressures on currency and asset prices.

Risks: increasingly on the downside. The balance of risks has tilted further down. The possibility of disorderly financial market developments has increased and could spread through EMDEs, amplified by elevated debt levels in many countries. Escalating trade tensions could be disruptive in the presence of complex value chains. Although unlikely in the near term, the simultaneous occurrence of a severe U.S. downturn and a sharper-than-expected deceleration in China could trigger a deeper slowdown in global activity (Figure 4B). Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks remain high and could negatively impact confidence and investment in both the affected countries and globally (Figure 4C). In the absence of an approved withdrawal agreement, the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU could be accompanied by significant disruptions to domestic activity and become a source of financial stability risk in other economies.

FIGURE 4.B Impact on global growth of 1-percentage-point growth slowdowns in the United States and China  

FIGURE 4.A Growth in major EMDE commodity exporters 

FIGURE 4.C Global policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and volatility, 2018

Source: Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016); Bloomberg; Caldara and Iacoviello (2017); World Bank. A. Shaded areas indicate forecasts. B. Blue and red bars show scenarios assuming a 1-percentage-point growth shock in China, the United States, and the combination of the two. Refer to the January 2019 edition of Global Economic Prospects for details. C. The policy uncertainty index is computed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) and is based on the frequency of words in domestic newspapers mentioning economic policy uncertainty. Last observation is December 2018.

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January 2019

FIGURE 5.B Gross government debt by LIC category

FIGURE 5.A Gross government debt in LICs

FIGURE 5.C Change in creditor composition of public and publicly-guaranteed external debt, 2007-2016

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Bank. Note: LICs = low-income countries. A. Dashed blue lines denote the interquartile range, while the solid blue line is the median. A.B. The sample includes 30 low-income countries. C. GDP-weighted average across 32 low-income countries. Refer to the January 2019 edition of Global Economic Prospects for details.

Debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries (LICs) are rising, as borrowing has surged and the composition of debt has shifted toward more expensive and less transparent sources of financing.

LIC debt: Recent sharp rise. Debt relief under the Heavily In-debted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) helped reduce public debt among LICs from a median debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 100 percent in the early 2000s to just over 30 percent in 2013. This downward trend reversed sharply thereafter, with the median debt ratio ris-ing to above 50 percent by 2017 (Figure 5A). The sharpest accel-eration was observed in commodity-exporting LICs (Figure 5.B).

Uses of debt: Some investment, mostly consumption. Fiscal sus-tainability concerns over rising debt levels can be mitigated if public debt finances growth-enhancing investment that raises potential output and thus the ability to repay loans in the future. In some LICs, wider fiscal deficits were matched by higher public investment. For most LICs, however, a substantial part of bor-rowing has been used to finance a rise in current consumption.

Composition of debt: shift to non-concessional. The composi-tion of debt has become increasingly non-concessional as LICs have increased their reliance on financing from non-traditional sources (Figure 5C). The median share of the non-concessional component in public debt rose to 55 percent in 2016 (the latest year for which data are available), an increase of nearly 8 percent-age points from 2013 and 15 percentage points compared with a decade earlier (Figure 6A).

New sources of debt: non-Paris Club and commercial creditors. Non-Paris Club creditors have become a more important source of financing over the past decade, especially in Sub-Saharan Afri-ca. In 2016, non-Paris Club debt accounted for more than one-fifth of external debt in the median LIC, and about 13 percent of their public debt. Major recipients of lending from non-Paris Club creditors include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethi-opia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Com-mercial creditors have also become an important source of credit for some countries. Ethiopia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, Tajikistan, and Tanzania have all issued commercial public debt since 2010, generally denominated in U.S. dollars.

Lending standards: less transparency. Lending arrangements for

Special Focus: Debt in Low-Income Countries

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January 2019

FIGURE 6.B Share of LICs in debt distress or at high risk of distress

FIGURE 6.A Share of non-concessional debt in LICs

FIGURE 6.C Foreign direct investment

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Bank. A. Dashed blue lines denote the interquartile range, while solid blue line is the median. A.B. The sample includes 30 low-income countries. B. Figure shows the percent of low-income countries eligible to access the IMF’s concessional lending facilities that are either at high risk of, or in, debt distress. C. Standard deviation represents the median standard deviation of foreign direct investment in percent of GDP from 2000 to 2017.

non-Paris Club and commercial debt often are not publicly dis-closed, and can be complex. Some of this debt is collateralized, which could reduce budget flexibility by earmarking revenues, weaken the creditor’s incentive to assess the borrower’s debt sus-tainability, and (if large) increase funding costs from other credi-tors who may reassess the probability of being repaid. Moreover, increased exposure to non-Paris Club and commercial creditors may pose coordination challenges for debt resolutions.

Risk of debt distress. Higher levels of public debt, much of it ex-ternal, and an increased reliance on commercial loans expose many LICs to currency, interest rate, and refinancing risks. As advanced economies continue to withdraw exceptional monetary policy accommodation and external financing conditions tighten, new debt issuances and rollovers may become more expensive, resulting in rising debt service costs that could weaken investment and lower medium-term growth prospects in LICs. Because of rising arrears or the need for debt restructuring, 11 LICs were assessed as being in debt distress or at a high risk of debt distress as of November 2018, compared to only six in 2015 (Figure 6B). For LICs assessed at low or moderate risk of debt distress, safety margins have eroded.

High debt levels add to existing vulnerabilities. Risks to LIC growth are tilted to the downside and include the possibility of a faster-than-expected slowdown among major trading partners; lower commodity prices; a deterioration in international financial conditions; and the possibility of natural disasters, conflict, or severe weather events. In addition, almost all LICs carry persis-tent, substantial current account deficits. Moreover, FDI flows to some LICs (notably metals exporters) are particularly sensitive to fluctuations in global conditions (Figure 6C).

Policy priorities: Domestic resource mobilization, debt and in-vestment management. Despite some improvement, debt man-agement capacity in many LICs is low—recent examples of hid-den debt and discrepancies in debt statistics point to continued low debt recording capacity, weak legal frameworks, and govern-ance challenges. LICs need to increase the effectiveness of domes-tic resource mobilization, public investment and other spending, and improve debt management practices, with a focus on better data collection. With these reforms, LICs can reduce the probabil-ity of costly defaults, enhance debt transparency, support sustaina-ble financial sector development, and reduce economic volatility.

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January 2019

(Percent change, y/y)

(Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: December 29, 2018 - January 23, 2019 Upcoming releases: January 24, 2019 - February 23, 2019

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

South Korea 12/30/18 CPI DEC 1.3 % 1.7 % 2.0 % Australia 1/29/19 CPI Q4 1.9 %

Thailand 1/2/19 CPI DEC 0.36 % 1 % -2.0% Germany 1/30/19 CPI JAN 1.7 %

Indonesia 1/2/19 CPI DEC 3.1 % 3.2 % France 1/30/19 GDP Q4 2.3 %

Turkey 1/3/19 CPI DEC 20.30 % 21.62 % United States 1/30/19 GDP Q4 3.0 %

Philippines 1/4/19 CPI DEC 2.9 % 6.0 % Belgium 1/30/19 GDP Q4 1.6 %

Italy 1/4/19 CPI DEC 1.1 % 1.6 % Austria 1/31/19 GDP Q4 2.2 %

Mexico 1/9/19 CPI DEC 4.8 % 4.7 % Spain 1/31/19 GDP Q4 2.4 %

China 1/9/19 CPI DEC 1.9 % 2.2 % Euro Area 1/31/19 GDP Q4 1.6 %

Romania 1/11/19 GDP Q3 4.2 % 4.3 % Indonesia 2/7/19 GDP Q4 5.17 %

Czech Republic 1/11/19 GDP Q3 2.4 % 2.4 % Mexico 2/7/19 CPI JAN 4.8 %

Brazil 1/11/19 CPI DEC 3.75 % 4.05 % Brazil 2/8/19 CPI JAN 3.75 %

United States 1/11/19 CPI DEC 1.9 % 2.2 % UK 2/11/19 GDP Q4 1.5 %

France 1/15/19 CPI DEC 1.6 % 1.9 % Japan 2/13/19 GDP Q4 -0.3 %

Germany 1/16/19 CPI DEC 1.7 % 2.3 % Malaysia 2/14/19 GDP Q3 4.4 %

UK 1/16/19 CPI DEC 2.1 % 2.3 % 2.3 % Italy 2/14/19 GDP Q4 0.7 %

Euro Area 1/17/19 CPI DEC 1.6 % 1.9 % Germany 2/14/19 GDP Q4 1.1 %

Japan 1/17/19 CPI DEC 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.8 % Poland 2/14/19 GDP Q4 5.1 %

Canada 1/18/19 CPI DEC 2.0 % 1.7 % Bulgaria 2/14/19 GDP Q4 3.1 %

China 1/20/19 GDP Q4 6.4 % 6.4 % 6.5 % Portugal 2/14/19 GDP Q4 2.1 %

South Korea 1/21/19 GDP Q4 3.1 % 2.2 % 2.0 % Thailand 2/18/19 GDP Q4 3.3 %

South Africa 1/23/19 CPI DEC 4.5 % 5.2 % Mexico 2/22/19 GDP Q4 2.5 %

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January 2019 TABLE B: Activity and Inflation (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized)

Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" is used as a proxy. 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping.

TABLE C: Trade and Finance

Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable.

2017   2018  2017 2016 2017 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Industrial production, sa 1 World 2.1 3.9 5.7 3.7 2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.6 2.2

Advanced economies 0.1 2.5 5.1 0.0 3.0 1.0 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 0.7

Emerging market and developing economies 4.2 5.3 6.2 7.5 2.3 3.4 5.5 6.5 6.3 5.3 6.3 5.1 4.5 5.4 4.6 4.5 4.7 3.6

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 0.5 2.6 1.6 4.6 -3.3 4.7 2.3 3.8 3.2 3.2 4.9 0.8 -0.4 2.5 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.8

Other EMDEs 5.3 6.0 7.5 8.2 3.8 3.1 6.5 7.3 7.2 5.8 6.6 6.3 5.8 6.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 4.1 East Asia and Pacific 5.9 6.1 5.8 9.6 3.4 3.0 5.7 7.2 7.0 5.7 7.0 6.3 4.6 5.6 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.1

East Asia excl. China 4.6 3.7 0.3 13.6 -9.9 5.1 2.9 7.4 5.9 3.8 7.2 3.7 -4.2 3.1 1.5 1.2 2.7 2.6

Europe and Central Asia 3.4 5.9 6.9 5.7 2.6 2.3 6.4 7.6 7.3 5.7 5.9 5.5 4.5 6.0 3.8 3.4 3.2 1.9

Latin America and Caribbean -2.2 0.9 3.8 2.2 -1.7 3.0 2.2 1.5 1.8 2.9 4.4 -1.4 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.3

Middle East and North Africa -1.1 5.9 3.6 -8.9 4.2 7.9 8.7 2.2 2.7 4.5 2.2 1.2 5.2 3.7 -4.0 5.0 -2.1 -1.7

South Asia 5.3 4.6 12.3 5.8 -2.1 8.4 7.6 8.1 7.2 5.5 5.4 4.5 6.3 7.8 4.3 5.9 7.6 0.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 0.1 7.3 -8.3 0.7 9.4 3.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 -1.7 1.3 1.8 2.5 1.6 2.0 2.6 1.6

Inflation, sa 2 World 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 Advanced economies 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0

Emerging market and developing economies 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 Other EMDEs 1.3 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.1

East Asia and Pacific 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.1

Europe and Central Asia 0.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0

Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.0

Middle East and North Africa 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1

South Asia 4.4 3.8 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.4

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.2 5.5 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.1 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.9 4.0

2018  

2017   2018 2017  

2016 2017 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Exports, nominal, US$, sa

World -2.9 10.4 13.8 13.8 25.8 -4.6 12.0 17.4 17.4 9.9 16.7 10.8 10.0 11.9 6.8 4.5 10.8 2.2

Advanced economies -0.9 9.7 10.6 10.6 23.4 -5.1 12.0 18.2 13.0 11.9 17.3 9.5 9.3 10.2 5.1 1.3 9.0 0.5

Emerging market and developing economies -6.2 11.8 19.8 19.8 30.2 -3.6 12.1 15.9 25.6 6.4 15.9 13.1 11.4 15.1 10.2 10.5 14.1 5.4

Commodity-exporting EMDEs -8.2 17.5 23.5 23.5 30.0 -1.0 13.7 20.4 15.2 12.9 23.6 15.5 16.1 23.0 13.7 9.6 18.9 9.6

Other EMDEs -4.5 9.5 18.2 18.2 30.3 -4.7 11.4 14.1 30.0 3.8 12.8 12.1 9.4 11.9 8.8 10.8 12.3 3.8

East Asia and Pacific -6.1 10.0 16.0 16.0 33.3 -4.5 11.1 13.9 33.0 1.2 12.2 11.7 10.4 12.4 8.9 11.0 13.6 3.0

Europe and Central Asia -6.0 16.6 28.9 28.9 37.5 -1.4 16.2 26.6 20.8 14.9 27.5 19.8 13.9 23.8 13.6 11.1 16.6 11.1

Latin America and Caribbean -2.4 11.9 14.2 14.2 21.1 -6.2 8.9 12.0 11.8 10.6 13.4 7.1 6.4 12.1 9.5 6.2 10.5 7.8

Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 0.6 5.6 21.3 21.3 5.8 4.7 11.6 7.3 10.1 5.4 9.1 20.1 4.7 14.0 3.4 23.1 18.3 13.0

Sub-Saharan Africa -8.4 14.8 19.8 19.8 24.8 -5.0 9.5 11.8 15.8 10.2 18.0 14.1 16.1 17.1 12.7 9.5 - -

Imports, nominal, US$, sa

World -5.3 12.2 32.9 32.9 15.5 5.0 19.5 16.3 21.3 9.0 25.2 4.4 10.1 12.6 2.4 24.6 13.9 3.1

Advanced economies -3.4 9.1 16.7 16.7 23.0 -3.5 13.8 18.7 15.3 11.9 18.6 10.0 9.2 11.9 7.0 3.8 10.9 2.7

Emerging market and developing economies -6.4 13.9 42.5 42.5 11.7 9.7 22.7 15.0 24.7 7.4 28.8 1.7 10.6 13.0 -0.2 37.5 15.5 3.5

Commodity-exporting EMDEs -7.3 13.2 50.5 50.5 2.9 16.5 25.8 10.0 29.2 6.0 32.3 -2.0 10.3 11.7 -3.9 47.9 16.0 -

Other EMDEs -3.0 16.4 18.7 18.7 46.2 -9.8 13.0 32.6 11.1 12.2 17.9 16.9 11.7 18.0 12.2 8.9 14.2 3.7

East Asia and Pacific -3.7 17.5 18.1 18.1 60.6 -12.8 10.4 37.8 9.2 11.9 21.9 20.8 11.6 21.3 16.7 11.9 19.3 4.7

Europe and Central Asia -1.2 18.6 17.2 17.2 38.2 -20.9 23.5 30.3 22.0 17.7 19.3 9.8 7.6 6.5 -1.0 -1.8 0.6 -1.1

Latin America and Caribbean -7.3 8.3 17.3 17.3 24.7 5.5 7.0 13.9 14.3 4.2 21.4 12.7 9.6 23.0 13.6 6.2 16.0 11.7

Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia -5.4 22.7 33.7 33.7 22.6 11.4 19.3 24.4 11.9 7.9 4.9 16.0 20.7 23.7 19.9 10.9 15.5 3.6

Sub-Saharan Africa -12.7 4.7 27.3 27.3 - - 15.3 - - - - - - - - - - -

International reserves, US$1

World -2.0 7.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 -1.2 0.7 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 0.4

Advanced economies 3.2 10.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 -0.8 0.8 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.4

Emerging market and developing economies -5.2 5.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 -1.5 0.6 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 0.5

Commodity-exporting EMDEs -4.5 3.6 1.2 1.2 2.0 -0.5 0.3 1.3 -0.3 1.1 0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 - - -

Other EMDEs -5.7 6.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 -2.0 0.8 1.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 0.4

East Asia and Pacific -7.3 5.6 1.3 1.3 0.6 -1.4 0.9 1.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 0.4

Europe and Central Asia 3.4 10.3 1.0 1.0 4.3 -3.3 -0.3 3.5 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2 1.6

Latin America and Caribbean 1.3 2.2 -1.0 -1.0 1.6 -1.9 -0.8 1.3 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -1.3 0.4 -0.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.5

Middle East and North Africa -10.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 3.6 11.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 -3.8 2.1 2.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.8 -0.1

Sub-Saharan Africa -2.9 10.4 6.3 6.3 8.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 0.9 5.7 1.1 2.1 -2.0 -0.2 -3.3 - - -

2018  

(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

10

 

January 2019

© 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The maps were produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on these maps do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorse-ment or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

TABLE D: Financial Markets (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

TABLE E: Commodity Prices

2018 MRV 1

2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Interest rates and LIBOR (percent)

U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.97 0.97 1.40 1.67 1.88 2.16 1.38 1.38 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.77 1.88 1.88 1.90 2.13 2.13 2.22 2.38

ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

US$ LIBOR 3-months 1.26 1.26 1.93 2.34 2.34 2.63 1.73 1.87 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.35 2.46 2.65 2.79 2.78

EURIBOR 3-months -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31

US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.33 2.76 2.92 2.92 3.03 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.16 3.12 2.83 2.74

German Bund, 10 yr 0.37 0.37 0.57 0.42 0.28 0.29 0.50 0.67 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 0.25 0.26 0.35 0.37 0.32 0.19 0.15

Spreads (basis points)

JP Morgan Emerging Markets 325 325 309 351 378 402 299 309 319 322 353 377 366 383 386 377 405 423 399

Asia 164 164 157 185 189 202 146 156 168 171 186 197 193 185 189 190 204 211 195

Europe 243 243 221 275 313 316 212 217 234 246 277 301 291 329 318 299 316 334 315

Latin America & Caribbean 429 429 418 455 487 523 410 420 423 422 459 486 471 493 498 492 528 549 515

Middle East 385 385 367 429 464 497 359 366 374 385 432 472 451 464 478 453 497 541 579

Africa 376 376 320 385 440 481 305 317 337 342 379 436 420 445 455 445 485 515 488

Stock Indices (end of period)

Global (MSCI) 508 508 500 505 524 456 502 517 500 510 509 505 520 524 524 484 491 456 484

Advanced Economies ($ Index) 2086 2086 2042 2089 2184 1884 2053 2113 2042 2087 2093 2089 2153 2179 2184 2019 2041 1884 2001

United States (S&P 500) 2668 2668 2590 2718 2923 2507 2631 2711 2590 2648 2729 2718 2816 2902 2923 2712 2760 2507 2623

Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1558 1558 1493 1533 1548 1368 1518 1522 1493 1556 1545 1533 1581 1547 1548 1454 1450 1368 1441

Japan (Nikkei 225) 22530 22530 21203 22305 24021 20019 21650 21794 21203 22488 22095 22305 22554 22788 24021 21920 22351 20019 20623

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 1139 1139 1167 1070 1048 966 1158 1202 1167 1164 1121 1070 1087 1055 1048 954 995 966 1018

EM Asia 577 577 589 552 537 485 584 603 589 587 582 552 553 546 537 476 503 485 506

EM Europe 341 341 350 312 313 292 354 370 350 335 316 312 319 294 313 293 301 292 313

EM Europe & Middle East 275 275 280 253 259 246 285 295 280 271 257 253 263 246 259 247 252 246 261

EM Latin America & Caribbean 2811 2811 3008 2477 2577 2566 2945 3095 3008 2988 2561 2477 2702 2466 2577 2684 2600 2566 2847

Exchange Rates (LCU / USD)

Advanced Economies

Euro Area 0.89 0.89 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88

Japan 112.11 112.11 107.94 109.16 111.52 112.74 109.83 107.96 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 111.45 111.03 112.09 112.76 113.40 112.06 109.69

Emerging and Developing Economies

Brazil 3.19 3.19 3.24 3.61 3.95 3.81 3.19 3.25 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.79 3.82 3.93 4.10 3.76 3.80 3.89 3.75

China 6.76 6.76 6.35 6.38 6.81 6.92 6.41 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.47 6.72 6.85 6.86 6.93 6.94 6.88 6.78

Egypt 17.85 17.85 17.68 17.80 17.90 17.92 17.74 17.67 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.88 17.90 17.88 17.92 17.92 17.93 17.93 17.88

India 65.11 65.11 64.40 66.99 70.19 72.04 63.72 64.44 65.06 65.69 67.49 67.79 68.74 69.62 72.22 73.59 71.83 70.71 71.19

Russia 58.31 58.31 56.96 62.03 65.64 66.74 56.93 56.81 57.15 61.01 62.28 62.81 62.83 66.48 67.60 65.86 66.69 67.66 66.27

South Africa 13.31 13.31 11.93 12.65 14.09 14.31 12.15 11.82 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.33 13.39 14.13 14.75 14.54 14.10 14.31 13.84

Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 119.6 119.6 114.1 116.6 120.4 122.5 114.7 113.7 113.9 113.9 117.0 118.9 119.6 120.6 120.9 121.7 123.0 122.8 121.2

Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value.

2018

2018 MRV 1

2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Energy 2 68 68 82 89 93 84 85 81 81 86 92 91 92 90 96 97 82 73 73

Non-energy 2 84 84 88 89 83 81 87 88 88 90 90 88 84 83 81 82 81 81 81

Agriculture 2 87 87 89 91 85 83 87 89 90 92 92 89 86 85 83 83 82 83 83

Metals and minerals 2 79 79 88 88 80 79 89 89 85 87 88 88 81 79 79 81 79 77 75

Memo items:

Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 53 53 64 71 73 64 66 63 64 69 73 72 73 71 75 77 62 54 59

Gold ($/toz) 1258 1258 1329 1307 1213 1229 1331 1331 1325 1335 1303 1282 1238 1202 1198 1215 1221 1250 1250

Baltic Dry Index 1152 1152 1171 1256 1602 1356 1234 1130 1149 1126 1289 1352 1649 1710 1447 1545 1201 1322 1077

Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value.

2 Indexes, 2010 = 100.

2018