Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030...II.1.3.2 Degasification for Utilization...

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United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs (6207J) EPA-430-R-13-011 Washington, DC 20005 September 2013 Global Mitigation of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030

Transcript of Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030...II.1.3.2 Degasification for Utilization...

  • United States Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Atmospheric Programs (6207J) EPA-430-R-13-011 Washington, DC 20005 September 2013

    Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030

  • How to obtain copies You can electronically download this document from the U.S. EPA’s Web site at .

    For further information The results presented in this report can be downloaded in spreadsheet format from the U.S. EPA’s Web site at . For additional information, contact Shaun Ragnauth, (202) 343-9142, [email protected], U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Peer-reviewed document This report has undergone an external peer review consistent with the guidelines of the U.S. EPA Peer Review Policy. Comments were received from experts in the private sector, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and other government agencies. See the Acknowledgements section for a list of reviewers. A copy of the EPA Peer Review guidelines can be downloaded from the following web page at .

    http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.htmlhttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.htmlmailto:[email protected]://www.epa.gov/osa/spc/2peerrev.htm

  • Acknowledgements

    This report was prepared under a contract between the U.S. Environmental Protection

    Agency (USEPA) and RTI International. Shaun Ragnauth edited and directed completion

    of the report. Lead authors include Jeffry Petrusa of RTI, Shaun Ragnauth of USEPA,

    Jameel Alsalam of USEPA, David Godwin of USEPA, Jared Creason of USEPA, Jia Li of

    USEPA, and Robert Beach of RTI. We thank USEPA reviewers Reid Harvey, Allison Costa,

    Kurt Roos, Tom Wirth, Jefferson Cole, Carey Bylin, Suzanne Waltzer, Tom Frankiewicz,

    Chris Godlove, Sally Rand, Kirsten Cappel, Jayne Somers, Melissa Weitz, and Elisa Rim.

    Other significant contributors and co-authors include Sara Ohrel of USEPA, William Salas

    of Applied GeoSolutions, Changsheng Li of University of New Hampshire, Pete Ingraham

    of Applied GeoSolutions, Stephen Ogle of Colorado State University, and

    Benjamin Henderson of International Food Policy Research Institute.

    The staff at RTI assisted in compiling and finalizing the report. The staff at RTI and

    ICF Consulting prepared many of the individual analyses. Special recognition goes to

    Jeffrey Petrusa at RTI and Marian Van Pelt at ICF Consulting for their significant

    contributions on this project.

    We also thank the following external reviewers: Stuart Day (CSIRO Energy Technology),

    Clark Talkington (Advanced Resources International), Jon Kelefant (Advanced Resources

    International), Mike Godec (Advanced Resources International), Ronald Collings (Ruby

    Canyon Engineering), Pam Lacey (American Gas Association), Erica Bowman

    (America’s Natural Gas Alliance), Richard Meyer (American Gas Association), Karin Ritter

    (American Petroleum Institute), Lisa Beal (Interstate Natural Gas Association of America),

    Alex MacPherson (USEPA), David McCabe (Clean Air Task Force), Maureen Hardwick

    (International Pharmaceutical Aerosol Consortium), Paul Ashford (Caleb Group),

    Debra Reinhart (National Science Foundation), Morton Barlaz (North Carolina State

    University), Chris Bayless (World Aluminum), Jerry Marks, Kenneth Martchek (Alcoa),

    Lee Bray (U.S. Geological Survey), Silvio Stangherlin (ABB), Archie McCulloch,

    Deborah Kramer (U.S. Geological Survey), Roger Desaulniers (Polycontrols), Kurt Werner

    (3M), Cynthia Murphy (University of Texas), Lambert Kuijpers (Technical University ECfS),

    Robert Wilkins (Danfoss), Bill Neuffer (USEPA), David Hind (Orica), Lorraine Gershman

    (American Chemistry Council), Mausami Desai (USEPA), Nathan Frank (USEPA),

    Himanshu Pathak (Indian Agricultural Research Institute), Kristen Johnson (Washington

    State University), Ron Sass (Rice University), Phil Robertson (Michigan State University),

    Arvin Mosier (USDA/ARS), Keith Smith (University of Edinburgh) Steven Smith (Pacific

    Northwest National Laboratory), Steven Rose (Electric Power Research Institute),

    Francesco Tubiello (UN Food and Agriculture Organization).

    Although these individuals participated in the review of this analysis, their efforts do not

    constitute an endorsement of the report’s results or of any USEPA policies and programs.

  • CONTENTS

    Contents Section Page

    Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... ES-1

    I. Technical Summary

    I. Technical Summary ........................................................................................................................ I-1 I.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. I-1

    I.2 Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases ............................................................................................................. I-1

    I.2.1 Methane (CH4)...................................................................................................................... I-2

    I.2.2 Nitrous Oxide (N2O)............................................................................................................ I-3

    I.2.3 F-Gases Gases ....................................................................................................................... I-3

    I.2.4 Use of GWPs in this Report ................................................................................................ I-4

    I.3 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... I-4

    I.3.1 Baseline Emissions for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases ...................................................... I-5

    I.3.2 Mitigation Option Analysis Methodology ....................................................................... I-7

    I.3.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves ................................................................................... I-13

    I.3.4 Methodological Enhancements from Analysis .............................................................. I-15

    I.4 Aggregate Results ............................................................................................................................ I-15

    I.4.1 Baselines .............................................................................................................................. I-16

    I.4.2 Global MACs ...................................................................................................................... I-19

    I.5 Limitations and Uncertainties ........................................................................................................ I-20

    I.5.1 Exclusion of Transaction Costs ........................................................................................ I-21

    I.5.2 Static Approach to Abatement Assessment ................................................................... I-21

    I.5.3 Limited Use of Regional Data .......................................................................................... I-21

    I.5.4 Exclusion of Indirect Emissions Reductions .................................................................. I-21

    References .................................................................................................................................................... I-22

    II. Energy

    II.1. Coal Mining ..................................................................................................................................... II-1 II.1.1 Sector Summary ............................................................................................................................. II-1

    II.1.2 Methane Emissions from Coal Mining ....................................................................................... II-3

    II.1.2.1 Activity Data and Related Assumptions .................................................................. II-4

    II.1.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ...................................................... II-5

    II.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ............................................................. II-6

    II.1.3.1 Methane Recovery System from Degasification/Drainage Systems .....................II-8

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES III

  • CONTENTS

    II.1.3.2 Degasification for Utilization in Energy Production .............................................. II-9

    II.1.3.3 Degasification for On-site Utilization—Process Heat ........................................... II-11

    II.1.3.4 Combustion through Flaring.................................................................................... II-12

    II.1.3.5 VAM Oxidation .......................................................................................................... II-12

    II.1.3.6 Evaluation of Future Mitigation Option and Trends ............................................ II-13

    II.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................ II-13

    II.1.4.1 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................ II-13

    II.1.4.2 Assessment of Sectoral Trends................................................................................. II-14

    II.1.4.3 Definition of Model Facilities for the Analysis ...................................................... II-15

    II.1.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ................................................ II-15

    II.1.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................. II-16

    II.1.4.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................. II-17

    References ................................................................................................................................................... II-19

    II.2. Oil and Natural Gas Systems ...................................................................................................... II-21 II.2.1 Sector Summary ........................................................................................................................... II-21

    II.2.2 Methane Emissions: Oil and Natural Gas Systems ................................................................. II-22

    II.2.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related

    Assumptions ............................................................................................................... II-24

    II.2.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... II-25

    II.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ........................................................... II-26

    II.2.3.1 Oil and Natural Gas Production .............................................................................. II-26

    II.2.3.2 Gas Processing and Transmission Segments ......................................................... II-29

    II.2.3.3 Gas Distribution Segment ......................................................................................... II-34

    II.2.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................ II-35

    II.2.4.1 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................ II-35

    II.2.4.2 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................. II-40

    II.2.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................. II-42

    References ................................................................................................................................................... II-43

    III. Waste

    III.1. Landfill Sector ............................................................................................................................... III-1 III.1.1 Sector Summary ........................................................................................................................... III-1

    III.1.2 Methane Emissions from Landfills............................................................................................ III-3

    III.1.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related

    Assumptions ............................................................................................................... III-4

    III.1.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... III-5

    III.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ........................................................... III-6

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES IV

  • CONTENTS

    III.1.3.1 Landfill CH4 Mitigation Technologies .................................................................... III-7

    III.1.3.2 Diversion Alternatives .............................................................................................III-10

    III.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .......................................................................................III-15

    III.1.4.1 Methodological Approach .......................................................................................III-16

    III.1.4.2 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................III-22

    III.1.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................III-23

    References ..................................................................................................................................................III-24

    III.2. Wastewater .................................................................................................................................. III-27 III.2.1 Sector Summary ..........................................................................................................................III-27

    III.2.2 GHG Emissions from Wastewater ...........................................................................................III-29

    III.2.2.1 CH4 Emissions from Domestic and Industrial Wastewater ................................III-29

    III.2.2.2 N2O Emissions from Domestic Wastewater—Human Sewage ..........................III-30

    III.2.2.3 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ...................................................III-30

    III.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ..........................................................III-32

    III.2.3.1 Overview of Abatement Measures .........................................................................III-34

    III.2.3.2 CH4 Mitigation Technology for Existing Decentralized Treatment ...................III-35

    III.2.3.3 CH4 Mitigation Technology for Existing Collection System without Treatment ...................................................................................................................III-37

    III.2.3.4 CH4 Mitigation Technology for Existing Centralized Aerobic WWTPs ............III-38

    III.2.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .......................................................................................III-40

    III.2.4.1 Methodological Approach .......................................................................................III-40

    III.2.4.2 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................III-42

    III.2.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................III-44

    References ..................................................................................................................................................III-45

    IV. Industrial Processes

    IV.1. Nitric and Adipic Acid Production ...............................................................................................IV-1 IV.1.1 Sector Summary ........................................................................................................................... IV-1

    IV.1.2 N2O Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production ...................................................... IV-2

    IV.1.2.1 Nitric Acid Production and Emission Factors ....................................................... IV-2

    IV.1.2.2 Adipic Acid Production and Emission Factors...................................................... IV-4

    IV.1.2.3 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-5

    IV.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ........................................................... IV-6

    IV.1.3.1 Adipic Acid—N2O Abatement Methods ................................................................ IV-7

    IV.1.3.2 Nitric Acid—Primary Abatement Measures .......................................................... IV-7

    IV.1.3.3 Nitric Acid—Secondary Abatement Measures ...................................................... IV-7

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES V

  • CONTENTS

    IV.1.3.4 Nitric Acid—Tertiary Abatement Measure: Direct Catalytic Decomposition ........................................................................................................... IV-8

    IV.1.3.5 Nitric Acid—Tertiary Abatement Measure: Non-selective Catalytic Reduction (NSCR)...................................................................................................... IV-9

    IV.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................ IV-9

    IV.1.4.1 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................ IV-9

    IV.1.4.2 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-13

    IV.1.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................ IV-15

    References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-16

    IV.2. HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning ......................................................IV-19 IV.2.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-19

    IV.2.2 Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning............................................................ IV-20

    IV.2.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-22

    IV.2.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-23

    IV.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-23

    IV.2.3.1 Enhanced HFC-134a in New MVACs ................................................................... IV-25

    IV.2.3.2 HFO-1234yf in New MVACs.................................................................................. IV-25

    IV.2.3.3 Enhanced HFO-1234yf in New MVACs ............................................................... IV-25

    IV.2.3.4 Distributed Systems in New Large Retail Food .................................................. IV-26

    IV.2.3.5 HFC Secondary Loop and/or Cascade Systems in New Large Retail Food..... IV-26

    IV.2.3.6 NH3 or HCs Secondary Loop and/or Cascade Systems in New Large

    Retail Food ................................................................................................................ IV-27

    IV.2.3.7 CO2 Transcritical Systems in New Large Retail Food ........................................ IV-27

    IV.2.3.8 Retrofits of R-404A in Large Retail Food .............................................................. IV-28

    IV.2.3.9 HCs in New Small Retail Food Refrigeration Systems ....................................... IV-28

    IV.2.3.10 HCs in New Window AC and Dehumidifiers ..................................................... IV-29

    IV.2.3.11 R-32 in New Unitary AC Equipment and PTAC/PTHP ..................................... IV-29

    IV.2.3.12 MCHX in New Unitary AC Equipment................................................................ IV-30

    IV.2.3.13 R-32 with MCHX in New Unitary AC Equipment.............................................. IV-30

    IV.2.3.14 MCHX in New Positive Displacement Chillers ................................................... IV-30

    IV.2.3.15 NH3 or CO2 in New IPR and Cold Storage Systems ........................................... IV-31

    IV.2.3.16 Refrigerant Recovery at Disposal for All Existing Equipment Types .............. IV-31

    IV.2.3.17 Refrigerant Recovery at Servicing for Existing Small Equipment .................... IV-32

    IV.2.3.18 Leak Repair for Existing Large Equipment .......................................................... IV-32

    IV.2.3.19 HCs in New Domestic Refrigeration Systems ..................................................... IV-33

    IV.2.3.20 CO2 in Transport Refrigeration ............................................................................. IV-33

    IV.2.3.21 Low-GWP Refrigerants and Blends ...................................................................... IV-33

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES VI

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  • CONTENTS

    IV.2.4 Engineering Cost Data Summary ............................................................................................ IV-33

    IV.2.5 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-35

    IV.2.5.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-36

    IV.2.5.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-36

    IV.2.5.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-39

    IV.2.5.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-41

    IV.2.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-42

    References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-44

    IV.3. HFC Emissions from Solvent Use .............................................................................................IV-49 IV.3.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-49

    IV.3.2 Emissions from Solvents ........................................................................................................... IV-50

    IV.3.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-51

    IV.3.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-51

    IV.3.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-52

    IV.3.3.1 HFC to HFE .............................................................................................................. IV-53

    IV.3.3.2 Retrofit....................................................................................................................... IV-53

    IV.3.3.3 Not-in-Kind Aqueous.............................................................................................. IV-54

    IV.3.3.4 Not-in-Kind Semi-aqueous ..................................................................................... IV-54

    IV.3.3.5 Low-GWP Alternatives ........................................................................................... IV-54

    IV.3.3.6 Engineering Cost Data Summary .......................................................................... IV-55

    IV.3.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-55

    IV.3.4.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-56

    IV.3.4.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-56

    IV.3.4.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-56

    IV.3.4.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-57

    IV.3.5 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-58

    References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-59

    IV.4. HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing ............................................................................IV-61 IV.4.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-61

    IV.4.2 Emissions from Foams .............................................................................................................. IV-62

    IV.4.2.1 Activity Data, Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related

    Assumptions ............................................................................................................. IV-64

    IV.4.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-64

    IV.4.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-64

    IV.4.3.1 HCs in PU Appliances............................................................................................. IV-66

    IV.4.3.2 HCs in Commercial Refrigeration ......................................................................... IV-66

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES VII

  • CONTENTS

    IV.4.3.3 HC in Polyurethane Spray Foams ......................................................................... IV-67

    IV.4.3.4 CO2 in Polyurethane Spray Foams ....................................................................... IV-67

    IV.4.3.5 LCD/Alcohol in XPS Boardstock ........................................................................... IV-67

    IV.4.3.6 HFC-134a to HCs in PU One-Component Foam ................................................. IV-68

    IV.4.3.7 HFC-152a to HCs in PU One-Component Foam ................................................. IV-68

    IV.4.3.8 HCs in PU Continuous and Discontinuous Foams ............................................. IV-68

    IV.4.3.9 Manual Blowing Agent Recovery from Appliances at End of Life (EOL) ....... IV-69

    IV.4.3.10 Fully Automated Blowing Agent Recovery from Appliances at EOL ............. IV-69

    IV.4.3.11 Solstice Liquid Blowing Agent in PU Foams ....................................................... IV-69

    IV.4.3.12 Solstice Gas Blowing Agent in XPS Foam and One-Component Foam ........... IV-70

    IV.4.3.13 Methyl Formate in PU and XPS Foams................................................................. IV-71

    IV.4.4 Engineering Cost Data Summary ............................................................................................ IV-71

    IV.4.5 Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis ........................................................................................ IV-72

    IV.4.5.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-72

    IV.4.5.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-72

    IV.4.5.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-73

    IV.4.5.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-74

    IV.4.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-74

    References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-76

    IV.5. HFC Emissions from Aerosol Product Use ..............................................................................IV-79 IV.5.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-79

    IV.5.2 Emissions from Aerosol Product Use ..................................................................................... IV-80

    IV.5.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-81

    IV.5.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-81

    IV.5.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-81

    IV.5.3.1 Hydrocarbons ........................................................................................................... IV-82

    IV.5.3.2 Not-in-Kind .............................................................................................................. IV-83

    IV.5.3.3 HFO-1234ze .............................................................................................................. IV-83

    IV.5.3.4 HFC-134a to HFC-152a ........................................................................................... IV-84

    IV.5.3.5 Dry Powder Inhalers ............................................................................................... IV-84

    IV.5.3.6 Engineering Cost Data Summary .......................................................................... IV-85

    IV.5.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-85

    IV.5.4.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-85

    IV.5.4.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-85

    IV.5.4.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-86

    IV.5.4.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-87

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES VIII

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  • CONTENTS

    IV.5.5 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-88

    References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-89

    IV.6. HFC and PFC Emissions from Fire Protection.........................................................................IV-91 IV.6.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-91

    IV.6.2 Emissions from Fire Protection ................................................................................................ IV-92

    IV.6.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-93

    IV.6.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-93

    IV.6.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-94

    IV.6.3.1 FK-5-1-12 in New Class A Total Flooding Applications .................................... IV-95

    IV.6.3.2 Inert Gas Systems in New Class A Total Flooding Applications ...................... IV-96

    IV.6.3.3 Water Mist Systems in New Class B Total Flooding Applications ................... IV-96

    IV.6.4 Engineering Cost Data Summary ............................................................................................ IV-97

    IV.6.5 Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis ........................................................................................ IV-97

    IV.6.5.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-97

    IV.6.5.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-98

    IV.6.5.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-99

    IV.6.5.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-99

    IV.6.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-99

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-101

    IV.7. PFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production ........................................................... IV-103 IV.7.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-103

    IV.7.2 Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production ................................................................ IV-105

    IV.7.2.1 Activity Data and Important Trends ................................................................... IV-106

    IV.7.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-107

    IV.7.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-108

    IV.7.3.1 Minor Retrofit ......................................................................................................... IV-109

    IV.7.3.2 Major Retrofit ......................................................................................................... IV-109

    IV.7.3.3 Engineering Cost Data Summary ........................................................................ IV-110

    IV.7.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-110

    IV.7.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-111

    IV.7.4.2 Definition of Model Facilities ............................................................................... IV-111

    IV.7.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-111

    IV.7.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-112

    IV.7.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-113

    IV.7.4 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-114

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-115

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES IX

  • CONTENTS

    IV.8. HFC-23 Emissions from HCFC-22 Production ...................................................................... IV-117 IV.8.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-117

    IV.8.1.1 Emissions from HCFC-22 Production................................................................. IV-119

    IV.8.1.2 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-119

    IV.8.1.3 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-120

    IV.8.2 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-122

    IV.8.2.1 Thermal Oxidation................................................................................................. IV-123

    IV.8.2.2 Evaluation of Future Mitigation Options and Trends ...................................... IV-123

    IV.8.3 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-124

    IV.8.3.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-124

    IV.8.3.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-124

    IV.8.3.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-125

    IV.8.3.4 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-125

    IV.8.4 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-127

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-128

    IV.9. F-GHG Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing ...................................................... IV-129 IV.9.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-129

    IV.9.2 Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing .................................................................. IV-131

    IV.9.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-131

    IV.9.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ................................................ IV-133

    IV.9.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-134

    IV.9.3.1 Thermal Abatement ............................................................................................... IV-135

    IV.9.3.2 Catalytic Abatement .............................................................................................. IV-136

    IV.9.3.3 Plasma Abatement ................................................................................................. IV-136

    IV.9.3.4 NF3 Remote Chamber Clean................................................................................. IV-137

    IV.9.3.5 Gas Replacement.................................................................................................... IV-138

    IV.9.3.6 Process Optimization ............................................................................................ IV-138

    IV.9.4 Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-139

    IV.9.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-139

    IV.9.4.2 Definition of Model Facilities ............................................................................... IV-140

    IV.9.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-140

    IV.9.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-142

    IV.9.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-143

    IV.9.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-144

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-145

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES X

  • CONTENTS

    IV.10. SF6 Emissions from Electric Power Systems........................................................................ IV-147 IV.10.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-147

    IV.10.2 SF6 Emissions from Electric Power Systems ........................................................................ IV-149

    IV.10.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-150

    IV.10.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-152

    IV.10.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-153

    IV.10.3.1 SF6 Recycling........................................................................................................... IV-153

    IV.10.3.2 Leak Detection and Leak Repair (LDAR) ........................................................... IV-155

    IV.10.3.3 Equipment Refurbishment ................................................................................... IV-155

    IV.10.3.4 Improved SF6 Handling ....................................................................................... IV-156

    IV.10.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-157

    IV.10.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-157

    IV.10.4.2 Definition of EPS Model Facilities ....................................................................... IV-157

    IV.10.4.3 Parameters Used to Estimate Technical Effectiveness ...................................... IV-159

    IV.10.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-159

    IV.10.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-160

    IV.10.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-162

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-163

    IV.11. SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production........................................................................ IV-165 IV.11.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-165

    IV.11.2 SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Manufacturing ................................................................. IV-166

    IV.11.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-167

    IV.11.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-168

    IV.11.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-169

    IV.11.3.1 Replacement with Alternative Cover Gas—Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) .................. IV-169

    IV.11.3.2 Replacement with Alternative Cover Gas—HFC 134a ..................................... IV-170

    IV.11.3.3 Replacement with Alternative Cover Gas—Novec™ 612 ................................ IV-170

    IV.11.3.4 Summary of Mitigation Technology Costs and Characteristics ...................... IV-170

    IV.11.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-171

    IV.11.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-171

    IV.11.4.2 Model Facilities Defined ....................................................................................... IV-171

    IV.11.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-172

    IV.11.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-172

    IV.11.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-172

    IV.11.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-174

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-175

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    IV.12. Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing ................................................................ IV-177 IV.12.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-177

    IV.12.2 Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing .............................................................. IV-178

    IV.12.2.1 Activity Data and Important Sectoral/Regional Trends ................................... IV-180

    IV.12.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ................................................ IV-180

    IV.12.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-181

    IV.12.3.1 Thermal Abatement ............................................................................................... IV-182

    IV.12.3.2 Catalytic Abatement .............................................................................................. IV-183

    IV.12.3.3 Plasma Abatement ................................................................................................. IV-183

    IV.12.3.4 NF3 Remote Chamber Clean................................................................................. IV-183

    IV.12.3.5 Summary of Mitigation Technology Costs and Characteristics ...................... IV-184

    IV.12.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-184

    IV.12.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-184

    IV.12.4.2 Definition of Model Facility ................................................................................. IV-184

    IV.12.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-185

    IV.12.4.4 Estimating the Break-Even Price of Abatement Measures ............................... IV-185

    IV.12.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-186

    IV.12.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-187

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-189

    IV.13. PFC Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing ...................................................... IV-191 IV.13.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-191

    IV.13.2 Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing ............................................................ IV-192

    IV.13.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related

    Assumptions ........................................................................................................... IV-193

    IV.13.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ................................................ IV-194

    IV.13.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-194

    IV.13.3.1 Central Abatement................................................................................................. IV-195

    IV.13.3.2 Thermal Abatement ............................................................................................... IV-195

    IV.13.3.3 Catalytic Abatement .............................................................................................. IV-195

    IV.13.3.4 Plasma Abatement ................................................................................................. IV-196

    IV.13.3.5 NF3 Remote Chamber Clean................................................................................. IV-196

    IV.13.3.6 Gas Replacement.................................................................................................... IV-196

    IV.13.3.7 Summary of Mitigation Technology Costs and Characteristics ...................... IV-197

    IV.13.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-197

    IV.13.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-197

    IV.13.4.2 Facility Definition .................................................................................................. IV-197

    IV.13.4.3 Estimating the Technical Effectiveness Parameter ............................................ IV-197

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    IV.13.4.4 Estimating Break-Even Prices .............................................................................. IV-198

    IV.13.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-199

    IV.13.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-200

    References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-201

    V. Agriculture

    V.1. Non-Rice Croplands .......................................................................................................................V-1 V.1.1 Sector Summary .............................................................................................................................V-1

    V.1.2 Emissions from Non-Rice Croplands..........................................................................................V-4

    V.1.2.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................V-4

    V.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis .............................................................V-6

    V.1.3.1 Mitigation Technologies ............................................................................................V-6

    V.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................V-11

    V.1.4.1 Estimate Abatement Measure Costs and Benefits .................................................V-11

    V.1.4.2 MAC Analysis Results ..............................................................................................V-11

    V.1.5 Sensitivity Analysis .....................................................................................................................V-13

    V.1.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ....................................................................................................V-15

    References ...................................................................................................................................................V-17

    V.2. Rice Cultivation ............................................................................................................................V-19 V.2.1 Sector Summary ...........................................................................................................................V-19

    V.2.2 CH4 and N2O Emissions and Changes in Soil Carbon from Rice Cultivation.....................V-21

    V.2.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related

    Assumptions ...............................................................................................................V-22

    V.2.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ....................................................V-32

    V.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ...........................................................V-32

    V.2.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................V-36

    V.2.4.1 MAC Analysis Results ..............................................................................................V-36

    V.2.5 Sensitivity Analyses ....................................................................................................................V-39

    V.2.5. Uncertainties and Limitations .........................................................................................V-41

    References ...................................................................................................................................................V-42

    V.3. Livestock .......................................................................................................................................V-43 V.3.1 Sector Summary ...........................................................................................................................V-43

    V.3.2 CH4 and N2O Emissions from Livestock Management ..........................................................V-46

    V.3.2.1 CH4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation............................................................V-46

    V.3.2.2 CH4 and N2O Emissions from Manure Management ...........................................V-46

    V.3.2.3 Baseline CH4 and N2O Emissions Estimates ..........................................................V-47

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    V.3.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ...........................................................V-50

    V.3.3.1 Enteric Fermentation CH4 Mitigation Technologies .............................................V-50

    V.3.3.2 Manure Management CH4 Mitigation Technologies ............................................V-53

    V.3.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................V-58

    V.3.4.1 Development of Disaggregated Baseline Livestock Populations ........................V-58

    V.3.4.4 MAC Analysis Results ..............................................................................................V-63

    V.3.5 Sensitivity Analyses ....................................................................................................................V-65

    V.3.4.5. Uncertainties and Limitations ..................................................................................V-71

    References ...................................................................................................................................................V-73

    Appendixes A: Tables.............................................................................................................................................. A-1

    B: Coal Mining .................................................................................................................................... B-1

    C: Natural Gas and Oil Systems .......................................................................................................C-1

    D: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning ........................................................................................... D-1

    E: Solvent Use ..................................................................................................................................... E-1

    F: Foams Manufacturing ................................................................................................................... F-1

    G: Aerosol Product Use..................................................................................................................... G-1

    H: Fire Protection ............................................................................................................................... H-1

    I: Primary Aluminum Production ................................................................................................... I-1

    J: HCFC-22 Production ...................................................................................................................... J-1

    K: Electric Power Systems .................................................................................................................K-1

    L: Magnesium Manufacturing.......................................................................................................... L-1

    M: Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing ............................................................................................... M-1

    N: Flat Panel Display Manufacturing.............................................................................................. N-1

    O: Description of the Input Data Used in DAYCENT Simulations ............................................ O-1

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    List of Figures Number Page

    Section I I-1 Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced

    Greenhouse Effect from Preindustrial to Present (measured in watts/meter2) ...................... I-2 I-2 Illustrative Non-CO2 Marginal Abatement Curve ................................................................... I-13 I-3 Percentage Share of Global Non-CO2 Emissionsa by Type of Gas in 2010............................ I-16 I-4 Non-CO2 Global Emissions Forecast to 2030 by Greenhouse Gas ......................................... I-17 I-5 Global Emissions by Major Sector for all Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases ................................ I-18 I-6 Projected World Emissions Baseline for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, Including

    Top Emitting Regions................................................................................................................... I-18 I-7 Global 2030 MACs by Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas.................................................................... I-19 I-8 Global 2030 MACs for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases by Major Emitting Regions ............... I-20 I-9 Global 2030 MACs for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases by Major Emitting Regions ............... I-20

    Section II 1-1 CH4 Emissions from Coal Mining: 2000–2030............................................................................II-1 1-2 Global Abatement Potential in Coal Mining: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ........................................II-2 1-3 Flow Chart of the Coal Mining Sector MAC Modeling Approach .......................................II-14 1-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters and Rest of World in 2030 ...............II-17 2-1 Emissions Projections for the Oil and Natural Gas Systems Sector: 2000–2030 ..................II-21 2-2 Global Abatement Potential in Oil and Natural Gas Systems: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .........II-22 2-3 Segments of Oil and Natural Gas Systems ...............................................................................II-23 2-4 Global Natural Gas Production: 2015–2035 .............................................................................II-24 2-5 Diagram of BAU Emissions for the United States Oil and Natural Gas System.................II-37 2-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top 5 Emitters in 2030...............................................II-41

    Section III 1-1 Emissions Projections for the Landfill Sector: 2000–2030 ....................................................... III-1 1-2 Global Abatement Potential in Landfill Sector: 2010, 2020, and 2030................................... III-2 1-3 Conceptual Model for Estimating Mitigation Potential in the MSW Landfill Sector ....... III-17 1-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030 .............................................. III-23 2-1 CH4 Emissions from Wastewater: 2000–2030......................................................................... III-27 2-2 N2O Emissions from Domestic Wastewater: 2000–2030 ....................................................... III-28 2-3 Global MAC for Wastewater: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .............................................................. III-29 2-4 Sanitation Ladder for Improvements to Wastewater Treatment ........................................ III-33 2-5 Five Existing Scenarios Evaluated for Given Wastewater Discharge Pathways

    Based on Technology Level, Treatment Alternative, and Collection Method .................. III-33 2-6 Mitigation Technology Approach for Developing Countries with Decentralized

    Treatment .................................................................................................................................... III-35 2-7 Mitigation Technology Approach for Developing Countries with Decentralized

    Treatment .................................................................................................................................... III-38 2-8 Mitigation Technology Approach for Countries with Existing Centralized WWTPs ...... III-39 2-9 Domestic Wastewater MAC Analysis Flow Chart ................................................................ III-40

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    2-10 Share of Wastewater CH4 Emissions to Domestic and Industrial Sources (Avg. 2002–2007)................................................................................................................................... III-41

    2-11 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2020 .............................................. III-43

    Section IV 1-1 N2O Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid: 2000–2030 ....................................................... IV-1 1-2 Global MAC for Nitric and Adipic Acid: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ............................................. IV-2 1-3 Adipic Acid Production Capacity by Country: 2010 .............................................................. IV-4 1-4 Operational Adipic Acid Production Facilities in 2010 by Share of Global Capacity ...... IV-11 1-5 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030 .............................................. IV-14 2-1 HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and AC: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e) ..................................... IV-19 2-2 Global Abatement Potential in Refrigeration and AC: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .................... IV-20 2-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Application Type (% of GWP-Weighted

    Emissions) ................................................................................................................................... IV-21 2-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ....................................... IV-42 3-1 HFC and PFC Emissions from Solvent Use: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e)...................................... IV-49 3-2 Global Abatement Potential in Solvent Use: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ..................................... IV-50 3-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Degreaser Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) .... IV-51 3-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ....................................... IV-58 4-1 HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e).................................... IV-61 4-2 Global Abatement Potential in Foams Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ................... IV-62 4-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Application Type (% of GWP-Weighted

    Emissions) ................................................................................................................................... IV-63 4-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Foam Emitters in 2030 ............................ IV-75 5-1 HFC Emissions from Aerosol Product Use: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e) ...................................... IV-79 5-2 Global Abatement Potential in Aerosol Product Use: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ...................... IV-80 5-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions)......... IV-81 5-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ....................................... IV-88 6-1 HFC and PFC Emissions from Fire Protection: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e)................................. IV-91 6-2 Global Abatement Potential in Fire Protection: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ................................ IV-92 6-3 Global HFC and PFC Emissions in 2020 (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions)...................... IV-93 6-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-100 7-1 PFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e) .................. IV-104 7-2 Global Abatement Potential in Primary Aluminum Production: 2010, 2020, and

    2030 ............................................................................................................................................ IV-105 7-3 Global PFC Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) ....... IV-106 7-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-114 8-1 HCF-23 Emissions from HCFC-22 Production: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e) .............................. IV-117 8-2 Global Abatement Potential in HCFC-22 Production: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ................... IV-118 8-3 Global HFC-23 Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted

    Emissions) ................................................................................................................................. IV-120 8-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Countries with Abatement Potential in 2030 ..... IV-126 9-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing: 2000–2030

    (MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-129 9-2 Global Abatement Potential in Semiconductor Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .. IV-130 9-3 Global F-GHG Emissions in 2020 by Fab Type and Process (% of GWP-Weighted

    Emissions) ................................................................................................................................. IV-132

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    9-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-143 10-1 SF6 Emissions from Electric Power Systems: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e) ................................... IV-147 10-2 Global Abatement Potential in Electric Power Systems: 2010, 2020, and 2030................ IV-148 10-3 Percentage of Global SF6 Emissions in 2020 by Emission Stream (% of GWP-

    Weighted Emissions) ............................................................................................................... IV-149 10-4 Global SF6 Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) ......... IV-151 10-5 Distribution of 2010 Emission Rates Reported through USEPA’s Voluntary

    Partnership ............................................................................................................................... IV-158 10-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five and Rest of World Emitters in 2030 .... IV-161 11-1 SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e) .................................. IV-165 11-2 Global Abatement Potential in Magnesium Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ........ IV-166 11-3 Global SF6 Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) ......... IV-167 11-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-174 12-1 F-GHG Emissions from PV Cell Manufacturing: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e)............................ IV-177 12-2 Global Abatement Potential in PV Cell Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030................ IV-178 12-3 Global F-GHG Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) .. IV-179 12-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters and Rest of World in 2030 .... IV-187 13-1 F-GHG Emissions from FPD Manufacturing: 2000–2030 (MtCO2e) ................................. IV-191 13-2 Global Abatement Potential in FPD Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ..................... IV-192 13-3 Global F-GHG Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) .. IV-193 13-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves by Emitting County in 2030........................................ IV-199

    Section V 1-1 Global Baseline Emissions from Non-Rice Croplands by GHG: 2010-2030 ......................... V-2 1-2 Baseline Net GHG Emissions from Non-Rice Croplands, Top Five Emitting

    Countries........................................................................................................................................ V-3 1-3 Global MAC Curve for Net GHG Reductions from Non-Rice Cropland Soils .................... V-4 1-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top-Five Emitting Countries in 2010 and 2030 ...... V-12 1-5 Global Abatement Potential in Non-rice Croplands Management: 2010, 2020, and

    2030 (Includes “Optimal N Fertilization” Strategy) ............................................................... V-14 1-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2010, 2030 (Includes

    “Optimal N Fertilization” Strategy) ......................................................................................... V-15 2-1 Net GHG Emissions Projections for Rice Cultivation: 2000–2030........................................ V-19 2-2 Global Abatement Potential in Rice Cultivation with Production Equal to Baseline

    Levels: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ...................................................................................................... V-21 2-3 DNDC Rice Cropland Area Sown, Top 5 countries, by Type and Water

    Management ................................................................................................................................ V-23 2-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030, Baseline Production

    Case............................................................................................................................................... V-39 2-5 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve, Baseline Area Case .......................................................... V-40 2-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030, Baseline Area Case ............ V-40 3-1 Total Net GHG Emissions and Projections for the Livestock Sector: 2000-2030 ................ V-43 3-2 CH4 Emissions Projections for the Livestock Sector: 2010–2030 .......................................... V-44 3-3 N20 Emissions Projections from the Livestock Sector: 2010–2030 ........................................ V-44 3-4 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .................. V-45 3-5 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030 (Baseline Production

    Case) ............................................................................................................................................. V-64

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    3-6 Global Net GHG Livestock Emissions Reduction Potential by Mitigation Option (Baseline Production Case) ........................................................................................................ V-65

    3-7 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management, Baseline Number of Animals : 2010, 2020, and 2030.................................................................................................. V-66

    3-8 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management, Baseline Production with No Antimethanogen: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ............................................................................. V-67

    3-9 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management, Baseline Number of Animals with No Antimethanogen: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .................................................... V-69

    3-10 Global Beef Production under Baseline and Mitigation Options, Assuming Full

    Adoption of Individual Options and Holding the Number of Animals Constant ............ V-70

    3-11 Global Production of Milk from Dairy Cattle Under Baseline and Mitigation Options, Assuming Full Adoption of Individual Options and Holding the Number of Animals Constant ................................................................................................................... V-71

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    List of Tables Number Page

    Section I I-1 Global Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions for 2010 (MtCO2e) by Source

    and Gas Type................................................................................................................................... I-2 I-2 Global Warming Potentials ........................................................................................................... I-4 I-3 Calculation of Potential Emission Reduction for an Abatement Option ................................ I-9 I-4 Financial Assumptions in Breakeven Price Calculations for Abatement Options .............. I-11 I-5 International Economic Adjustment Factors for Selected Countries ..................................... I-12

    Section II 1-1 IPCC Suggested Underground Emissions Factors for Selected Countries in

    m3/tonne Coal Produced ...............................................................................................................II-5 1-2 Projected Emissions from Coal Mine CH4 by Country and Region: 2010 to 2030

    (MtCO2e) .........................................................................................................................................II-6 1-3 Summary of Abatement Measures for Coal Mines ...................................................................II-7 1-4 Factors Used to Estimate Abatement Potential in Coal Mines ................................................II-7 1-5 Example Break-Even Price Calculation for Coal Mine Abatement Measures .....................II-15 1-6 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices ($/tCO2e) in 2030 ..............II-16 2-1 Emissions Source from Oil and Natural Gas Systems ............................................................II-23 2-2 Projected Baseline CH4 Emissions for Oil and Natural Gas Systems by

    Country/Region: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e) ......................................................................................II-25 2-3 Abatement Measures Applied in Oil and Gas Production Segments ..................................II-27 2-4 Abatement Measures for the Natural Gas Processing Segment ............................................II-30 2-5 Abatement Measures for the Natural Gas Transmission Segment .......................................II-31 2-6 Abatement Measures for the Distribution Segment ...............................................................II-34 2-7 International Statistics on Key Activity Drivers: 2010 ............................................................II-36 2-8 Example Break-Even Price Calculation based on 2010 MAC for the United States ...........II-39 2-9 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 ...............................II-41

    Section III 1-1 Projected Baseline Emissions for MSW Landfills by Country: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e) ......... III-5 1-2 Summary of the Engineering and Cost Assumptions for Abatement Measures at

    Landfills ........................................................................................................................................ III-6 1-3 Electricity Generation Technology Costs ................................................................................. III-8 1-4 Model Facilities Share of BAU Emissions: 2010–2030........................................................... III-18 1-5 Model Facility Assumptions for International LFG Mitigation Options ........................... III-19 1-6 CH4 Generation Factors by Country ....................................................................................... III-20 1-7 Example Break-Even Prices for MSW Landfill Technology Options ................................. III-21 1-8 Break-Even Prices of Waste Diversion Options..................................................................... III-21 1-9 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 (MtCO2e)............ III-22 2-1 Projected CH4 Baseline Emissions from Wastewater: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e) ...................... III-31 2-2 Projected N2O Baseline Emissions from Human: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e) ............................. III-31 2-3 Abatement Measures for the Wastewater Sector .................................................................. III-34

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    2-4 Example Break-Even Prices for Wastewater Abatement Measures in 2030 for the United States............................................................................................................................... III-42

    2-5 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 ............................. III-43

    Section IV 1-1 IPCC Emissions Factors for Nitric Acid Production ............................................................... IV-3 1-2 Projected N2O Baseline Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production: 2010–

    2030 ................................................................................................................................................ IV-5 1-3 Abatement Measures for Nitric and Adipic Acid Production............................................... IV-6 1-4 Adipic Acid-Producing Countries’ Share of Baseline Emissions ........................................ IV-12 1-5 Model Nitric Acid Facilities Assumptions ............................................................................. IV-13 1-6 Example Break-Even Prices for N2O Abatement Measures ................................................. IV-13 1-7 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 ............................. IV-14 2-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Refrigeration and AC: 2010 to 2030 (MtCO2e) .......... IV-23 2-2 Refrigeration and AC Abatement Options............................................................................. IV-24 2-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-34 2-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-36 2-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Refrigeration and AC .............. IV-39 2-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-41 3-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Solvent Use: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e) .............................. IV-52 3-2 Solvent Use Abatement Options.............................................................................................. IV-52 3-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-55 3-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-56 3-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Solvent Use ............................... IV-57 3-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-57 4-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Foams Manufacturing: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e) ............ IV-65 4-2 Foams Manufacturing Abatement Options ........................................................................... IV-65 4-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-71 4-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-73 4-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Foams Manufacturing ............. IV-74 4-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-75 5-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Aerosol Product Use: 2010-2030 (MtCO2e)................ IV-82 5-2 Aerosol Product Use Abatement Options .............................................................................. IV-83 5-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-85 5-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-86 5-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Aerosol Product Use................ IV-86 5-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-87 6-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Fire Protection: 2010 to 2030 (MtCO2e) ...................... IV-94 6-2 Fire Protection Abatement Options......................................................................................... IV-95 6-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-98 6-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-98 6-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Fire Protection .......................... IV-99

    GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES XX

  • CONTENTS

    6-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-100

    7-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production: 2010–2030

    (MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-108

    7-2 Primary Aluminum Production Abatement Options ......................................................... IV-109 7-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis ............................................................................ IV-111 7-4 Description of Primary Aluminum Production Facilities .................................................. IV-112 7-5 Technical Effectiveness Summary ......................................................................................... IV-112 7-6 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Primary Aluminum

    Production ................................................................................................................................ IV-113 7-7 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-113 8-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from HCFC-22 Production: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e) ............ IV-120 8-2 Distribution of HCF-23 Emissions by Location and Facility Type: 2010–2030................ IV-121 8-3 HCFC-22 Production Abatement Options ........................................................................... IV-122 8-4 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis ............................................................................ IV-122 8-5 Technical Effectiveness Summary ......................................................................................... IV-125 8-6 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in HCFC-22 Production ............. IV-125 8-7 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) .................................................................................................................................. IV-126 9-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing: 2010-2030

    (MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-133 9-2 Semiconductor Manufacturing Abatement Options .......................................................... IV-134 9-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis ............................................................................ IV-135 9-4 Annual Cost per Tool for Thermal Abatement Systems .................................................... IV-136 9-5 Capital Costs per CVD Chamber for Making a Facility NF3 Ready ................................. IV-138 9-6 Percentage of Annual Emissions by Process and Fab Type ............................................... IV-141 9-7 Technical Effectiveness Summary for New Fabs (Constant Over Time) ......................... IV-141 9-8 Technical Effectiveness Summary for Old Fabs (in 2020) .................................................. IV-141 9-9 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Semiconductor

    Manufacturing.......................................................................................................................... IV-142 9-10 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030

    (MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-143 10-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Electric Power Systems: 2010–2030 (MtCO2e)........ IV-152 10-2 EPS Abatement Options ......................................................................................................... IV-153 10-3 Engineering Cost Da