Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt
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Transcript of Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt
Overview of Environment in U.S. Towers
October 13, 2008
Jason Hill Managing Director
(617) [email protected]
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Overview of Media Venture Partners
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Media Venture Partners
Media Venture Partners (“MVP”) focuses on telecom, media and technology investment banking
MVP offers merger & acquisition advisory and capital raising services across the following sectors:
Communications towers
Spectrum
Wireless service carriers
Integrated Communications Providers
Broadcast radio & television
Digital media & technology
MVP has a twenty-year history of maximizing value for clients
$14 billion in successful transactions
MVP has closed more than 30 transactions in each of the last three years
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Selected Recent Transactions
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Market Conditions
We are in unprecedented times and largely unchartered waters
Confidence is minimal to non-existent
Cash is viewed as a key asset
The uncertainty began with the banks and the mortgage market, but now it is being felt in every sector of the economy
Credit is difficult to get, regardless of the industry
Lack of credit affects everything
Government intervention has appeared to be the only solution
Continued attempts by the Treasury to establish confidence
Worldwide efforts are underway to unlock the credit markets
Towers have not been immune
Public tower companies trading at 46% of 52-week high, 14.2x 2008E EBITDA on average
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In tough times, it’s better to be a tower company
Tower companies have solid cash flow from high-quality tenants who are under long-term contracts
Tower companies need to watch two key areas
The performance and estimates of the wireless carriers
Subscriber growth
ARPU
Capital expenditures
The credit markets
Availability of credit
Pricing
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Is It 2001-2002 All Over Again?
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0x
AMT CCI
SBAC Average
GSL
HISTORICAL ENTERPRISE VALUE TO EBITDA (12 MONTHS FORWARD)
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2001/2002 vs. Today
Positives (2000) Tenant lease-up beat estimates Strong subscriber growth New technologies created new demand,
including fixed wireless and wireless data (Internet is killer app.)
Lease-up rate could exceed 0.4 tenants / year – 4.0 / tenants / tower by 2007
Services to add incremental cash flow Pricing leverage shifting to tower operators
Concerns (mid-2001) Carrier consolidation Tower model was broken – operating leverage
could not be achieved Carrier capex spending was down, focus on
free cash flow Carrier net adds lower than expected Tower companies were over-levered
Then Positives
Subscriber and MOU growth Focus on network New builds from Metro, Leap, Clearwire Enormous growth in data 700 MHz buildouts and LTE Sprint may spin off Nextel New spectrum
Concerns Economy Subscriber and MOU growth, data growth and
capital expenditures may slow Carriers just spent a significant amount on 700
MHz spectrum Lack of capital for businesses fueled by
availability of debt capital Leverage
Now
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2001/2002 vs. Today
Wireless
Then Now
12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 10/10/2008 Subs (in millions) 109.5 128.4 141.9 246.9 Penetration 38.9% 45.1% 49.3% 82.3% MOUs/Month/Sub 309 379 454 1,056 ARPU $52.39 $53.60 $53.61 $50.38 EBITDA Margin 26.7% 29.7% 33.1% 34.3%
Towers
Then Now
12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 10/10/2008 Cell Sites 104,288 131,944 158,396 266,623
Tenants per Tower 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.7
EV/EBITDA 28.6x 14.1x 11.0x 14.2x
Leverage 10.4x 11.7x 10.6x 6.7x
Source: Wall Street research and MVP estimates.
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Tower Deal Environment Update
Until recently, tower companies were showing strong interest in acquiring new assets The private deal environment remains competitive Limited acquisition opportunities drive strong demand for quality tower portfolios
Small operators own approximately 47% of all towers in the U.S. Deals had been getting done at high multiples of tower cash flow
SBA has announced in the last six months: – TowerCo – 430 towers; Optasite – 548 towers; Lightower – 340 towers
TowerCo announced the purchase of 3,300 towers from Sprint Nextel The market is watching wireless carriers for any sign of decreased capex spending
Analysts projecting wireless capex of $26.5 billion for 2008 – 16% increase over 2007 Wireless carriers expected to add up to 24,000 new sites in 2008 versus 13,700 in 2007
AT&T – Anticipated restart of new site development, upwards of 2,500+ sites to maintain network quality given strong voice and data usage
MetroPCS – Planning major market launches (Boston, New York); Las Vegas and Philadelphia launched
T-Mobile – Has begun to build-out its $4.2 billion worth of AWS spectrum WiMAX expansions (e.g. Sprint / Clearwire with major support from cable companies
and Intel)
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Increasing Voice and Data Usage Driving ARPU
Data ARPU in 2005 was $4.34 and has grown to $10.63 in 2Q08
ARPU for AT&T users of the recently released iPhone 3G is estimated at nearly $115
Data now comprises 20% of national carriers’ ARPU, expected to reach 30% by 2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Voice MOUs (bns) Data Equivalent MOUs (bns)
VOICE AND DATA MINUTES OF USE VOICE AND DATA ARPU
Source: Wall Street research, Media Venture Partners, LLC.
$49.41 $48.76 $49.42$49.74 $49.41 $49.60$50.27 $50.63$49.86 $49.54$49.69
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
$55
2005 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Voice/Other Data
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What’s next?
Tower model is “fundamentally sound”
Strong, stable cash flow from high quality tenants in long term contracts
Growth may slow but tower companies continue to be free cash flow positive
We’re in a rough macro period, but cell phones and data are not going away
Deal environment may slow for some period but still lots of towers to be consolidated