Global Impacts Ashok Gadgil Faculty Senior Scientist and Acting Director, EETD and Professor of...

Global Impacts

Ashok GadgilFaculty Senior Scientist and Acting Director, EETD and Professor of Environmental Engineering, UC Berkeley

February 2, 2010

Global Impacts | Feb. 2, 2010 2

Energy for Developing Countries

--Why should we bother?


Human Development Index (HDI)

Experts, convened by the UN, constructed a consensus quantitative measure of human wellbeing. The three broad areas covered are:

1. Enlarging people’s choices through prosperity,2. Leading long and healthy lives, and3. Acquiring knowledge

HDI values for all countries are published by the UN annually, and are also posted on the web. Range is 0 (min) to 1 (max)


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Human Development Index vs. Electricity consumption

Hum

an D

evel

opm

ent I

ndex

(H

DI)

1.0

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There is relentless pressure from the bottom towards a better life


CO2 Emissions of Selected Countries

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USA

Australia

UKSouth Africa

RussiaNetherlands

Mexico

India Brazil

China

France

Germany

Greece

Italy

JapanKorea

2006 Carbon Intensity: (kg CO2 per 2000 US$)

Japan: 0.24UK: 0.32India: 1.78USA: 0.51China: 2.68


CO2 Emissions of Selected Countries

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Australia

UKSouth Africa

RussiaNetherlands

Mexico

India Brazil

China

France

Germany

Greece

Italy

JapanKorea

2006 Carbon Intensity: (kg CO2 per 2000 US$)

Japan: 0.24UK: 0.32India: 1.78USA: 0.51China: 2.68

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Source: IPCC, AR4, 2007

Emissions 45.7%

Emissions 54.3%

In addition, most of anthropogenic CO2 stock in the air is from Annex 1


Developing countries’ question:

“The atmosphere is a global commons.We too need head-room to improve our livelihoods.We didn’t put most of the GHG that is there now. What about us?!”


Potential for reductions at various CO2 prices – Total 24 Gt CO2/yr by 2030. Contribution by economic sectors and regions

• Estimates are for 2005-2030 and are based on bottom-up studies • Estimates do not explicitly include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.



Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment (RDD&D) agenda for Energy Efficiency

Two orthogonal slices to approach: 1. Multiple pathways to engage the developing countries 2. Multiple economic strata at which their goals need to be addressed


Two pronged approach (same as for us): - Decarbonize energy sources, and - Greatly improve energy efficiency

The second will yield far quicker results than the first (again same as for us).


Multiple pathways for Energy Efficiency:

-> Innovate technologies to address their desperate energy problems (e.g., stoves, drinking water)

-> Accelerate the demonstration, deployment and transfer of successful technologies (e.g., buildings, motors, Compact Fluorescent Lamps, industrial energy efficiency)

-> Transfer and adapt successful policies to their energy systems (e.g, Demand Side Management)


Address multi-level economic strata for Energy Efficiency:

-> Often people in top economic tier live like an average affluent country households (e.g., with air-conditioners, refrigerators, cars, lighting)

-> The bottom economic tier often lacks electricity, safe drinking water, adequate shelter, health care etc. (so innovations can meet their desperate needs)


Some illustrative examples


Stoves

Potential partner divisions:Environmental Energy Technologies Division (EETD)Computational Research Division (CRD)Materials Sciences Division (MSD)


photo by Mark Jacobs

Global Impacts | Feb. 2, 2010 19photo by Mark Jacobs


Cookstoves

About 2B people cook on solid fuels, mostly with stoves of low efficiency.

Most of sub-Saharan Africa cooks on simple three-stone fires of very low efficiency

Photo by Mark Jacobs


Cookstoves

Three stone fires are 5-7% efficient!

So, it is possible to engineer a better stove that is more efficient and affordable

Darfur three-stone fire


Cookstove Efficiency

Fuel-efficiency of a cookstove depends on 5 factors:1. Skill of the cook tending the fire2. Fuelwood characteristics3. Stove characteristics4. Shape of the pot, (and its fit to the stove)5. Kind of food being cooked (and the method of cooking)


Fuel Efficient Stoves designs

Several dozen well-designed efficient biomass cookstoves already exist. Much ongoing research for past decades in many countries.

Some examples of fuel efficient stoves:


Weaknesses in global stoves research

(1) world-class engineering science systematically applied to stove designs

(2) attention to user feedback

(3) independent field verification of stove performance


There are ~ 500M stoves in use

If we can reduce emissions from each by ~1 tonne of CO2-e per year, we are half way to a Gigatonne


Stopping soot emissions will have a rapid effect!


Policy

Environmental Energy Technologies Division (EETD)In collaboration with all other Divisions with applications to Developing Countries

Current funding in EETD = ~ $10M per year


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Per Capita Electricity in the U.S. and California (1960-2001)

Formation of EETD, LBL

CaliforniaPolicy on Decouplingfor Investor Owned Utilities

Art Rosenfeld (1973)


EETD is advising China and India on policies to promote energy efficiency in their economies.

MOUs are in place with top decision making bodies, with

regular exchanges and advisory visits.


Zero Net Energy Commercial Buildings InitiativeRapid Growth in Commercial Building Floor Area in China and India

The Opportunities in India and China



China

India8.5%/yr growth

DOE and CPUC Goals:Reduce energy consumption,

by 2030 by: • 80-90% In all newly

constructed commercial buildings

• 50% with retrofits to existing commercial buildings

Saturation to• 50% of the commercial

building stock by 2040• All commercial buildings by

2050

DOE and CPUC Goals:Reduce energy consumption,

by 2030 by: • 80-90% In all newly

constructed commercial buildings

• 50% with retrofits to existing commercial buildings

Saturation to• 50% of the commercial

building stock by 2040• All commercial buildings by

2050


EUI in kBTU/sq.ft.-yr

Analysis of 121 LEED-Rated Buildings Low-to-Medium Energy-Use-Intensity Buildings

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Measured to Design Ratio

Towards Zero-Net Energy

M. Frankel, “The Energy Performance of LEED Buildings,”presented at the Summer Study on Energy Efficient Buildings, American Council of Energy Efficiency Economy, Asilomar Conference Center, Pacific Grove, CA, August 17-22, 2008.

Building codes are for Design Performance, NOT based on Measured Performance.

The Challenge

Gaps•Lack of Measurements & Policies

Requiring it•Fragmentation of Process: Design,

Build, Delivery, Operation•Fragmentation of Market


Windows & Lighting

HVAC

Onsite Power & Heat

Natural Ventilation, Indoor Environment

Integrated Building Design & Operating PlatformPhysical Science & Engineering, Architecture,

Information Science & Technology

Building Materials

Appliances

Thermal & ElectricalStorage

Systems Approach to Whole Building IntegrationCooperation between Sub-Systems to Reduce Overall Energy Consumption


EETD software and expertise has helped in developing the recently-announced energy

efficiency targets for Indian building


Another Policy Success in the U.S.


EETD has very substantially participated and helped with appliance standard setting process in China


Access to Electricity is critically important (some would say essential) for reduced drudgery and improved human livelihood






Photos of street shop selling slippers, taken with identical exposure and aperture, on a street in Tanzania

The lower photo shows illumination with LED (30 lumens per electric watt), using 100 times less primary energy than the upper photo (0.1 lumen per fuel watt)

Photos by Evan Mills

LED Lighting could displace 400MT C emissions annually


1.6 Billion people still lack access to electricity!

Can we take on a technology challenge to produce 1 kWh per person per day of electricity affordably and robust enough for communities in a developing country?

With energy efficient end-use appliances, this could leap-frog over the high C-emission trajectory everyone has followed so far

Technical and economic analysis of the financial implications suggests this is affordable!


An example of Leveraging Berkeley’s Expertise: India

BIJLEE and RISE

BIJLEE: Berkeley India Joint Leadership in Energy and Environment

RISE: Research Institute started in India -- to mirror LBNL’s Foundry, to reflect Indian side of Science Tech. and Policy collaboration with Berkeley


Key Players in BIJLEEKey Players in BIJLEE

R. Ramesh, Professor of MSE and Physics, UC BerkeleyMaterials Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

A. Gadgil, Professor of CEE and Environment and Energy Technology DivisionLawrence Berkeley Laboratory

J. SathayeEnvironment and Energy Technology DivisionLawrence Berkeley Laboratory

S. Shankar Sastry, Dean, College of EngineeringProfessor, EECS


RISE: Vision and Expected Outcomes

Become the Premier Energy Science and Technology Institute in India, globally competitive (models: Bell Labs, LBNL, …)

$20M per year -- public+private partnership from Indian side

• Create Science and Technology: Become the Knowledge Engine

• Creating Intellectual Property: Transitioning Science to Technology•

• Create Value from Intellectual Property: Start-ups in India

• Impact Policy through Technology: Become the prime energy advisory group to the country


Supply and Demand

• Conversion• Efficiency• Storage

•TransportEfficiency

Lab Research:

Thermoelectrics

EfficiencySystems Research:

Smart Green Buildings

Conversion

Solar Energy to Electricity, Fuel

Storage

Thermal Storage

Batteries

Initiatives within RISEInitiatives within RISE

Policy and Market Transformation

Clean Energy – Power Sector


Exploit basic science to stimulate device

technologies

Creative Partnerships

Berkeley

National labs, academia, industry,

India

Explore Science and Technology of Matter

within the broad Energy Framework

Science, Technology and Energy Policy


Questions?

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