Global Framework for Climate

Services (GFCS): An Overview

Rupa Kumar Kolli

RKolli@wmo.int

Filipe Lucio FLucio@wmo.int

www.gfcs-climate.org/ 1

Global Framework for Climate Services

Goal:

• Enable better management of the risks of

climate variability and change and

adaptation to climate change at all levels,

through development and incorporation of

science-based climate information and

prediction into planning, policy and practice.

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Why a Framework for Climate Services?

• It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources…) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors.

• A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings.

• Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.

• Climate services have not been able to reach the last mile to those who need them the most.

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WMO

What are Climate Services?

• Provide a source of accumulated knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system;

• The development and delivery of a range of "products" and advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems – Historical climate data sets

– Climate monitoring

– Climate watches

– Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions

– Climate change projections

• The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results.

Components of GFCS

,

User Interface

Users – Government, private sector, research – agriculture, water, health,

construction, disaster reduction, environment, tourism, transport, etc. ,

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observations and

Monitoring

Research, Modeling

and Prediction

CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT

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GFCS Sectoral Priorities

• All climate-sensitive sectors to be tackled but in the

first four years it is agreed to give priority to the

following sectors for GFCS implementation:

Energy

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The principles of GFCS

GFCS Governance

• Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services (IBCS) – Established by Extraordinary Session of World Meteorological

Congress in 2012

• IBCS-1: 1-5 July 2013, Geneva – Adopted the GFCS Implementation Plan

• IBCS-2: 10-14 November 2014, Geneva

• IBCS Management Committee (Re-established in IBCS-2) – Chair: Dr Jens Sunde (Norway)

– Co-Vice-Chairs: Dr L.S. Rathore (India) and Dr L. Makuleni (South Africa)

– 28-Member Management Committee

• Partnership Advisory Committee

• GFCS Trust Fund

• GFCS Office (as part of WMO Secretariat)

GFCS is a partnership

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Early Implementation of GFCS • National Consultations/Pilot Projects on frameworks for climate services at national

level – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Belize, Dominica, Trinidad and

Tobago, Suriname, Bhutan, Kiribati, etc.

• Regional Consultations – LDCs in Asia, Bangkok, October 2012

– SIDS Caribbean, Port of Spain, May 2013

– SIDS Pacific, Cook Islands, 31 March-4 April 2014

– Latin America, 28 July – 1 August 2014

– Southeastern Europe, November 2014

– Third Pole, March 2016

• Establishment of joint project offices – WHO/WMO Climate and Health

– GWP/WMO IDMP TSU

– WFP/WMO

• Interagency Coordination Group with UN partners – FAO, WFP, UNESCO, UNDP, UNISDR, WB, WHO and WMO

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Lessons learned from regional and national

consultations

Regional

• Importance of research and science

• Role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums

• Maximization of limited resources through regional approach

• Exploring gaps, capacity development, and strategies for engaging stakeholders

National

• Systematic dialogue with users

• Understanding in-country capabilities

• Identification of data and observation requirements

• Identification of priority research questions

• Building sector-specific capacities

• Leveraging enabling factors

Concern...

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Tropical Cyclones

Coastal Marine Hazards

Strong Wind

Water Resource

Management

Health Industry

Food

security Transport

Energy

Urban areas

Hazards’ intensity

and frequency

are increasing

Need for > coping

mechanisms

Vulnerability and

exposure on the rise !

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Drought Flooding

Pro

ba

bil

ity

P (

x)

X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)

Coping range

Within every society,

there is a certain capacity

to cope with hazards

Climate variability/change

as well as societal changes

can increase or decrease

this coping range.

Adapted from Wilhite, 2006.

Vulnerability to climate hazards varies...

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Forecast

uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

Forecasts

Warnings

Alerts

Outlooks

Predictions

Scenarios

Projections

Decades Centuries

Climate Change

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Climate Variability

Weather

Historical

Observations

Customized Products •Risk assessment and mapping

•Risk Monitoring

•Early Warnings

•Public Advisories

•Research

•Planning tools

Response/Preparedness

Seamless hydrometeorological and climate services

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New demand-driven products in the offing:

onset prediction and monitoring

Probability of early

‘onset’

Probability of

late ‘onset’

CSRP monitoring

product: Observed

time of ‘onset‘ (in

days difference from

long-term average

Early onset

predicted most

likely

Early onset

occurred

Assessment over retrospective cases

indicates forecast can discriminate

early/late onset in ~70% of cases

(Tanzania/Kenya)

Onset forecasts being trialled at

regional centres in East, West and

southern Africa

Prediction is based

on local time of

arrival of 20% of

long-term seasonal

average

Greater Horn of Africa, short-rains season

2011 – 1 month lead time prediction

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Data or information?

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Decision-making across timescales

Begin planning and

monitoring of forecasts

Update contingency

plans

Sensitize communities

Enable early-warning

systems

Continue monitoring

Adjust plans

Warn communities

Local preparation

activities

Activate

response

Instruction to

communities to

evacuate, if

needed

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get

Mark Twain

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Strategic

Objectives of

the GFCS

Operational

and

Resources

Plan

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Step 1: Conduct Comprehensive National Baseline Capacity Assessment for Climate Services

Step 2: Support NHMS to engage in a national consultations process for the development of a framework for climate services

Step 3: Develop National Action Plan to address the capacity gaps identified through the national consultation process

Step 4: Organize National Action Plan Validation

Step 5: Begin Implementation of National Action Plan Activities, Launch National Framework for Climate Services, Ensure rigorous M&E

Supporting Countries to Achieve Coordinated

National Frameworks for Climate Services

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Development of National Action Plans

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Baseline

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Implementation focus (1/2)

• The Framework is being implemented over 2-, 6-, and

10-year time frames to facilitate review at the World

Meteorological Congress sessions.

• The first two years have been the start-up phase for

establishing the Framework’s infrastructure and for

establishment of coordination mechanisms for

implementation of multidisciplinary flagship projects and

activities in the four priority areas

– to develop a “Proof of Concept”

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Implementation focus (2/2)

• Pursuing the ambitions of the Implementation Plan:

• After six years:

– Implementation the Proof of Concept;

– flagship projects will be replicated in other parts of the world to

ensure worldwide improvements in climate services for the

priority areas

• After ten years:

– There will be improved climate services throughout the world,

across all climate-sensitive sectors and across global, regional

and national spatial scales.

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8 Weather • Climate • Water

Major needs

• Capacity development of professionals and communities on

production and effective application of climate services

• Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data

that is compatible with environmental and climate information;

• Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-

effective use of climate information for sector decisions;

• Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate

variability and climate change, in collaboration with the climate

research community;

• Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to

the sector and user communities;

• Sustainable financial and technical support;

• Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary

policy, practice and research.

Ten Pre-requisites for Effective GFCS Implementation

1. Strong institutional anchorage

2. Tailored climate service provision

3. Capacity of the NMHS and other technical services

4. Improved communication

5. Diverse communication media

6. Modernized and increased the density of observing networks

7. User driven climate research

8. Enhanced capacity of end-users

9. Sustained GFCS implementation at the national level

10. National stakeholder engagement

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Operational infrastructure required • Technical infrastructure

– Requirements for the different components of the GFCS

– Interoperability of databases (e.g., WIS compliance)

– Climate Services Toolkit (including downscaling/tailoring tools)

– Web platform for dissemination

• Global-Regional-National interaction – Networking capabilities (national access to as well as contribution to

global and regional products)

• Best practices and standardized approaches – Quality management, best practices on methods, tools, etc.

– Standardized approaches for regional/sub-regional synergy

• Linking operational products with the applications – Access to application models and decision support tools

– User-accessible climate knowledgebase

– Operational linkages with applications infrastructure

Programme of Implementing GFCS at Regional and

National Scales: Funded by Environment Canada

Objectives of this Consultation (1/2)

• Review current status of climate services in the Southwest Indian

Ocean region and assess specific needs in the GFCS priority

sectors;

• Review and characterize the current status of interfacing

mechanisms and interactions between climate services providers

and users, identify major areas for improvement and recommend

effective mechanisms and practices;

• Articulate the capacity building needs for the region, in terms of

mandates, infrastructure and human resources;

• Discuss and recommend improved arrangements for national and

local climate issues including climate change indices and impacts

indicators, improved access and use of climate data and

predictions, sustained operational mechanisms and infrastructure

that improve facilitation of the flow of climate information;

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Objectives of this Consultation (2/2)

• Identify partnerships among relevant stakeholders in the region

and build synergies with initiatives supporting the foundational

elements for climate services, such as the Indian Ocean Data

Rescue (INDARE) initiative, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs),

Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs/NCOFs)

and others;

• Identify, propose and prioritize, ways to promote community

understanding and awareness of climate variability and change,

and associated risks and opportunities for improved climate risk

management and products and services;

• Provide participating countries with the key steps to implement

GFCS at national level through sharing of experiences from the

various national consultations held so far, and through

identification of priorities for implementation.

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Thank you for your attention

www.gfcs-climate.org/ 30