Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx

Technische Universität Wien xx

naki@iiasa.ac.at

ALPS International Symposium on:

"Addressing Climate Change Harmonized with Sustainable Development"

RITE, Tokyo, Japan – 7 February, 2012

Global Energy Perspectives Efficiency and Decarbonization Revolution

Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx

Technische Universität Wien xx

naki@iiasa.ac.at

ALPS International Symposium on:

"Addressing Climate Change Harmonized with Sustainable Development"

RITE, Tokyo, Japan – 7 February, 2012

Global Energy Transformation Efficiency and Decarbonization Revolution

#3

Energy Transformation

● The world is still on a carbon-intensive growth path with ever increasing GHG emissions

● 2°C stabilization requires a trend reversal of global emissions before 2020

● Global energy is based predominantly on fossil sources (more than 80%)

● 3 billion people lack access to modern forms of energy

#4

Decarbonization Pathways Framework conditions

Challenges:

● Achieving universal energy access in the world

● Decarbonization of energy systems until 2050

Preconditions:

● The global primary energy demand should not increase significantly beyond the current levels

● Drastic improvements in energy efficiency (halving the global of CO2 intensity of energy)

● Behavioral and lifestyles changes necessary

#5

Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

Source: Pachauri et al, 2011

#6 Source: Modi, 2011

#7

Global Carbon Pools

14

Gas Hydrates

~6,600 – 57,000

GtCO2

Gas Hydrates

~100,000

GtCO2

Coal

~ 29,000 – 43,000 GtCO2

Unconv. Oil

~1,100–1,500

GtCO2

N. Gas

~340–500

GtCO2

Oil

~660–1,000

GtCO2

Soils

~10,000 GtCO2

Atmosphere

~3100

GtCO2

Unconventional

Natural Gas

~2,450 – 4,550

GtCO2

Biomass ~1,600–

1,650

GtCO2

#8

Estimated shale gas resource

14,803 TCF ≈ 15,600 EJ

#9

Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density

9

WEU: 21% of demand below

renewable density threshold

EEU: 34% of demand below

renewable density threshold

#10 Source: Hasni, 2011

Energy and Water from Deserts

#11

Source: Hasni, 2011

Energy for Europe (Desertec)

Potential Synergies between New Energy and

Transport Infrastructures: Asian “Supergrid”

Super Cables Super Cables

Power linesPower lines

Electric Power Research institute ©

Source:

Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010

MAGLEV

#13

Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Source: NREL, 2011

#14

Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Source: LA Wind, 2011

#15

Deep Ocean Pumped Storage ~ 30m sphere @ 2000m ≈ 60MWh

Source: Schmidt-Böcking, 2011; FAZ, 2011

Nakicenovic #16 2012

A Vision of a Future Energy System

Source: EU, 2002

#17 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass Microchip

Commercial

aviation

Television

Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam

engine

Nuclear

energy

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

#18 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass Microchip

Commercial

aviation

Television

Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam

engine

Nuclear

energy

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy Efficiency – Counterfactual

#19 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass Microchip

Commercial

aviation

Television

Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam

engine

Nuclear

energy

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear

Source: Riahi et al, 2011

#20 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,

and behavior)

~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Oil phase-out (necessary)

Nuclear phase-out (choice)

Source: Riahi et al, 2011

#21 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,

and behavior)

~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Oil phase-out (necessary)

Limited Intermittent REN

Limited Bioenergy

Bio-CCS – “negative CO2”

Nat-gas-CCS

Coal-CCS

Source: Riahi et al, 2011

#22

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Global Primary Energy WBGU Exemplary Pathway

Gas

#23

GEA-Efficiency

Industry:

1. Retrofit of existing plants

2. Best available technology for

new investments

3. Optimization of energy &

material flows

4. Lifecycle product design &

enhanced recycling

5. Electrification incl. switch to

renewable energy

Global Final Energy Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ

/ y

r

Residential:

1. Rapid introduction of

strict building codes

2. Accelerate retrofit rate

to 3% of stock per

year (x 4 improvement

by 2050)

3. Improved electrical

appliances

Transport:

1. Technology

efficiency (50%)

2. Reduced private

mobility (eg urban

planning)

3. Infrastructure for

public transport +

railway freight

Source: Riahi et al, 2011

#24

Global Energy Investments

Annual Energy

Investments

Innovation

RD&D [billion US$2005]

Markets Formation

[billion US$2005]

Present Investments [billion US$2005]

Future Investments [billion US$2005]

2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030

Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 ~400

Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 ~400

Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 ~40

Total > 50 < 150 1250 ~1750

Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goals

● Universal Access to Modern Energy

● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

#27

Drivers of Transformations

learning from the past

Vision – better future, normative perspectives

Abolition of slavery, Democracy, European Union

Crisis – “Gales of Creative Destruction”

The Great Depression, Structural adjustment programmers,

financial market reforms after 2008

Technology – Rapid innovation diffusion

Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution

Knowledge – research-driven, precautionary

principle

Protection of the ozone layers, climate change mitigation

#28

I. Legitimacy

of BAU

eroding

II. Vision:

low carbon

narrative → Growing number of

actors of change: • green businesses

• cities

• civil society

• science

• IGOs (UNIDO etc.)

Drivers of Transformations

”Decarbonization Revolution”

#29

I. Legitimacy

of BAU

eroding

II. Vision:

low carbon

narrative

Growing number

of actors of change

Green

innovation

Policy regime

Problem perception

increasing in many sectors

Shifting norms

values / heuristics

legitimacy

concepts

power

“it can be“

(finance,

technologies)

International

context

Drivers of Transformations

Multiple Drivers of Change

#30 0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal

Po

licy

Co

sts

(20

10

-20

30)

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

All objectives

fulfilled at

Stringent level

At least one

objective

fulfilled at

Intermediate

level

At least one

objective

fulfilled at

Weak level

Added costs of ES and

PH are comparatively

low when CC is taken as

an entry point

Policy Prioritization Framework

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) CC – Climate Change

PH – Pollution & Health

ES – Energy Security

McC

ollu

m e

t al

Frank Capra’s The Unleashed Goddess (1958)