Global Climate Change Activities at the International Rice ... · International Rice Research...
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Global Climate Change Activities at the International
Rice Research InstituteRice Research Institute
Reiner WassmannReiner WassmannReiner WassmannInternational Rice Research Institute
Coordinator of the Rice and ClimateRice and Climate
Reiner WassmannInternational Rice Research Institute
Coordinator of the Rice and ClimateRice and ClimateCoordinator of the Rice and Climate Rice and Climate Change Consortium Change Consortium
(as CIM Integrated Expert)(as CIM Integrated Expert)
Coordinator of the Rice and Climate Rice and Climate Change Consortium Change Consortium
(as CIM Integrated Expert)(as CIM Integrated Expert)
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INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTELos Baños, Philippines
Mission:Mission:
Reduce poverty and p yhunger;
Improve the health ofImprove the health of rice farmers and consumers;
Ensure environmental sustainability; Established 1960sustainability;
Capacity Building through research partnerships
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IRRI’s Previous Projects Cli t / Cli t Chon Climate/ Climate Change
In 1961-62, studies on the effect of temperatureon rice in the growth chamberg
In 1971-72, studies on the effect of CO2 enrichment i i t h b
1991-1999, studies on CH4 emissions,
on rice in open-top chambers
Si 2006 Ri d Cli t Ch C ti
Temp/CO2 + UV-B effects and modeling
Since 2006, Rice and Climate Change Consortiumas a platform for assessing mitigation, adaptationand regional impactsand regional impacts
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US-EPA project (1991-1995)
Open-top chambers (Temp / CO2 effects)(Temp./ CO2 effects)
Closed chambers (Methane emissions)
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Interregional Program on Methane Emissions from Rice Fieldsfrom Rice Fields
(funded by UNDP/GEF, 1993-1999)
IrrigatedIrrigatedRainfedRainfedRainfedRainfedDeepwaterDeepwater
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The Rice and Climate Change Consortium (RCCC)The Rice and Climate Change Consortium (RCCC)Since 2007Since 2007Since 2007Since 2007
Improving the Improving Impact on C Impact onImproving therice plant
Improving rice canopy management
Impact on C, N, and
water under different
pathways
Impact on ecosystem resilience and pests
Basic reserach on impacts and
optionspathways of land use
I t l b l d i l
options
Impact on global and regional rice production
Strategies for adaptation and
mitigation
Strategies for agroecological intensification
Strategies for response and mitigation intensification p
integration
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Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice ProductionProduction
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Emission scenarios
concentrationsemissions concentrationsemissions
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Regional Resolution of Global Climate Models
PRECISPRECISModeling
ToolTool
P idiProviding Regional ClimatesClimates
for Impacts pStudies
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Climate Scenarios/ Global and Regional
Best casescenario
Worst casescenario
Source: WWF
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Modeled potential Rice Crop Yield DS 2000 [kg/ha] IR72Simulated increase in night time temperature
DS 2000 no change + 2 degree C + 4 degree C 11000
9000
10000
8000
6000
7000
5000
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Annual means of daily max./ min. temperature, Annual means of daily max./ min. temperature, IRRIIRRIIRRIIRRI
25 0(º
C) 31.5
32.0
y = 2.3 + 0.014x (r2 = 0.14)
ºC) 24.5
25.0
y = -65.1 + 0.044x (r2 = 0.68)P > 0.05 P < 0.01
pera
ture
(
31.0
pera
ture
(
24.0
imum
tem
30.0
30.5
mum
tem
p
23.0
23.5
Max
i
29.5 Min
i
22.5
insignificant trend 1.19ºC increase in 27 years
Year1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
29.0
Year1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
22.0
(IRRI Climate Unit)(IRRI Climate Unit)Data from IRRI Climate Unit(IRRI Climate Unit)(IRRI Climate Unit)Data from IRRI Climate Unit
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LongLong--term field experiment at IRRI (1975term field experiment at IRRI (1975--2005)2005)s
ha-1
)
9.0
9.5
10.0y = -393.8 + 36.6x - 0.83x2 (r2 = 0.77) y = -9.0 + 1.6x - 0.04x2 (r2 = 0.26)
2005)2005)n
yiel
d (to
ns
7 5
8.0
8.5
• ••
• ••
22.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 16 17 18 19 20 21 2229.0 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0
Gra
in
6.5
7.0
7.5
Minimum temperature (ºC) Radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)Maximum temperature (ºC)
• 2004 dry season• 2005 dry seasons
(g m
-2)
1800
1850y = 5450 - 165.0x (r2 = 0.87) y = -9011 + 1076.1x - 26.9x2 (r2 = 0.71)
P < 0.0118
(tons
ha-
1 )un
d bi
omas
s
1650
1700
1750
17
22 0 22 5 23 0 23 5 24 0 16 17 18 19 20 21 2229 0 29 5 30 0 30 5 31 0 31 5 32 0Abo
vegr
ou
1500
1550
160016
1522.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 16 17 18 19 20 21 2229.0 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0A
Minimum temperature (ºC) Radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)Maximum temperature (ºC)Peng et al. 2004
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Sensitivity to Heat StressLOW HIGH MEDIUM
y
PanicleGrain fillingPollination
Leaf tiller and root
Panicle development
g
Leaf, tiller and root development
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Spikelet sterility induced b hi h t tby high temperature
at flowering
Temp. thresholdd ddepends on
humidity (ca. 34-35ºC in humid35 C in humid
tropics).
Sterility increases by 16%
ith 1ºCwith a 1ºC increase above Temp thresholdTemp. threshold
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Frequency of Tropical CyclonesFrequency of Tropical Cyclones
TyphoonsC l
HurricanesCyclones
Cyclones
UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005, <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/tropical-cyclone-frequency>
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Tropical Cyclones and Climate ChangeTropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007):
• As of now, ‘there is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones’.
• Under ongoing global warming, however, ‘it is likely that f t t i l l ill b i t ithfuture tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation…’.
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New Sub1 lines after 17 days ysubmergence in field at IRRI
Samba-Sub1IR64-Sub1
IR49830 (Sub1)Samba IR64
IR42
IR64
IR64 S b1IR64
IR49830 (Sub1)
IR49830 (Sub1)
IR42
Samba
IR64-Sub1
Samba-Sub1
IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 Sub1
IR42
IR64-Sub1Samba
IR42
Samba-Sub1
IR49830 (Sub1)
Samba
IR64-Sub1IR49830 (Sub1)
IR64
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Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar (May 2008)
Satellite photography of the I dd D ltIrrawaddy Delta
Before Nargis
After Nargis
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Sea Level Trends/ Future
80sea level rise (cm) Scenarios
in study on
different scenarios60
∆45
Mekong Delta
40
∆20
2000 2050 2100
20
0
∆20
2000 2050 2100year
IPCC 2001IPCC 2001
IPCC 2007CC 00
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Mega-Deltas of Asia
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Extreme Climate Variability in the Philippines:Twelve-month (April-March) rainfall during El Niño years
1951-52 1953-54 1957-58 1968-69 1972-73 1976-77 1997-98
Twelve month (April March) rainfall during El Niño years
1982 83 1986 87 1991 92 1992 93 1993 94 1994 951982-83 1986-87 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95
Percentile*:Severe drought impact< 10Drought impact11 - 20
Near normal to above normal41 - 60*Percentile is a way of presenting
i bilit ith t t tiWay above normal condition61 - 80
Severe flood damage> 90
Moderate drought impact21 - 40 variability with respect to time.Potential flood damage81 - 90
Source: PAGASA (2000)
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Adaptation to Climate Change
Funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
GenesGenes
MaizeMaize RiceRiceMaizeMaizeCC4 4
RiceRice(C(C33 CC44))
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Alternate wetting and drying (AWD) Alternate wetting and drying (AWD)
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16 Jan 2009 28Unit plot size: 5 x 5 m
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‘Site-Specific Nutrient Management’ (SSNM)(SSNM)
Applying nutrients as d h d dand when needed
Adjusting nutrient j gapplication to crop needs in given location and season
Leaf Color Chart
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AlternateAlternate WettingWettingAlternateAlternate--WettingWetting--andand--Drying (AWD)Drying (AWD)
affects the temperature affects the temperature regimes of soil water regimes of soil water regimes of soil, water, regimes of soil, water, and airand air
affects the transport of affects the transport of heat and greenhouse heat and greenhouse gases to the atmospheregases to the atmosphere
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Eddy CovarianceEddy Covariance
CameraCamera
COCO22 / H/ H22O analyzerO analyzerSonic anemometerSonic anemometer
Radiation sensorsRadiation sensors
Sonic anemometerSonic anemometer
Data loggerData logger
Solar panelSolar panel
T / h idit bT / h idit bTemp / humidity probesTemp / humidity probes
BatteriesBatteries
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Eddy CovarianceEddy Covariance
Air flow can be imagined as a horizontal flow of numerous rotating eddies
Th Edd C i S t th t f The Eddy Covariance System can measure the components of the eddies including the vertical wind component
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CO2 Flux
1.0Non Flooded Flooded
-0.5
0.0
0.5(m
g/m
2 s)Non-Flooded Flooded
-1.5
-1.0
0.5
3/3 3/4 3/5 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17 3/18
Fc
3/3 3/4 3/5 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17 3/18
Time
COCO22 flux describes the exchange of COflux describes the exchange of CO22 between the between the COCO22 flux describes the exchange of COflux describes the exchange of CO22 between the between the surface and the atmospheresurface and the atmosphere
downward flux – atmospheric CO2 taken up by downward flux atmospheric CO2 taken up by the rice plant for photosynthesis
upward flux – CO2 being released from p 2 gecosystem respiration
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Outlook…Outlook…
#8) Full GHG Accounting
#5) CO2/Heat Fl
#7) Landscape Model
Accounting
#6) CH4/ N2OFluxes #6) CH4/ N2Oemissions
#3) Soil-plant Interaction
#4) Trophic
#1)
Microbial Cycles#4) Trophic
Interaction
#2) )Carbon Nitrogen
Iron
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Modelling emissions using DNDC model(DeNitrification-DeComposition)(DeNitrification DeComposition)
Inputs SOIL Texture, pH, C and N content
=> for 28 cropsC and N content
CLIMATETemp., rainfall
MANAGEMENTN inputs, tillage,irrigation etc.
Outputs
f i
irrigation etc.EMISSIONS (CO2, CH4 , N2O, NO, NO2, NH3 )
WATER BALANCE (Evaporation, transpiration)from Li et al.
2000
( p , p )
SOIL PROFILES (C and N contents, moisture etc.)
CROP PHENOLOGY (biomass etc)CROP PHENOLOGY (biomass etc)
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Preventing Straw Burning
Technological options for using rice straw as renewable energy:energy:• combustion,• biogas technology (in combination with animalb ogas tec o ogy ( co b at o t a a
husbandry),• conversion of rice straw to ethanol,
d bi h t h l• … and bio-char technology.
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Charred rice husks can be produced easily andbe produced easily and are used already
loamy Fluvisol sandy FluvisolCO2 CH4
CH4 CO2
Haefele, pers. Comm.Nohusk
Charr.husk
Plainhusk
Nohusk
Charr.husk
Plainhusk
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‘Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)’:G ti b ditGenerating carbon credits
Carbon credits (CERs) represent the
diff b h
mission
s difference between the baseline and actual
emissions
ouse gas em
Green
ho
Project start
Historical Trend Time
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SSM – Small Scale Methodology Proposal under Review
http://cdm.unfccc.int/UserManagement/FileStorage/4BTFS58C2AXGMPIVDOJEL3K1Y0UWRNSubmitted on 18 Dec. 2009
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CDM rules in Marrakech Accord (2002)CDM rules in Marrakech Accord (2002)
• For 1st commitment period (2008-2010):The eligibility of land use, land-use change and g y gforestry project activities is limited to afforestation and reforestation.
• For future commitment periods (post 2012):• For future commitment periods (post 2012):Eligibility shall be decided as part of the negotiations on the 2nd commitment periodnegotiations on the 2nd commitment period.
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Different types of fundingDifferent types of funding
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)(CDM)
• An international Fund for mitigation projects
• Voluntary commitments y
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Conclusion I
Climate Change Miti tiMitigation:
Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms ofin terms of…
• Water use• Fertilizer uptake • Harvest index
Challenges of Mitigation = g gChallenges of advanced resource management
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Conclusion IIClimate Change Adaptation:Adaptation:
Ri t h tRice systems have tobecome more resilientto…
• Drought• Submergence• Submergence • Salinity• Heat waves
Challenges of Adaptation = gChallenges in unfavorable environments
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Thank youThank you