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Major Conclusions of IAEA/INPRO Collaborative Project on

Global Architectures of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems with Thermal and Fast Reactors and Closed

Nuclear Fuel Cycle (GAINS)

V. Usanov Former Scientific Secretary of CP GAINS

Institute for Physics and Power Engineering, Rosatom, Russian Federation

vladimir_usanov@mail.ru

INPRO Dialogue Forum “Drivers and Impediments for Regional Cooperation on the Way to Sustainable Nuclear Energy Systems”

IAEA, Vienna, 30 July-2 August 2012

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Project Objectives

• Why a CP on a global architecture? • Sustainable development implies availability and security of energy supply

globally, for all countries/regions of the world • Globalization requires enhanced cooperation and confidence in all areas including

nuclear energy • Countries have different abilities and views on the national nuclear power, while all

would like to use it in the most efficient and sustainable manner

• The overall objectives of the study is to develop: • a framework (a common methodological platform, assumptions & boundary

conditions) for assessing global nuclear energy system architectures regarding sustainable development; and

• case studies: • for analysing transition strategies from present to a future nuclear energy

system (NES) • aiming at facilitating its use while minimizing financial, environmental, and

political risks

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Organization

• Strengths • Broad membership • The IAEA auspices and expertise • Thermal and fast reactor ‘communities’ working together • Unified criteria based on the INPRO methodology

• Brief History • Project start: July 2008 • Two progress meetings each year during 2009-2010 • Last meeting: April 2011 • Final report under publication

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Belgium, Canada, China, Czech Republic, France, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Spain, Ukraine, USA, EC, and Argentina as an observer

MSs participated in GAINS

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Analytical framework for assessing NES regarding sustainable development (1/3)

Two long-term nuclear energy demand scenarios - the great uncertainty of the forecasts made by expert

groups with the use of macro models is reduced by the examination of expectations and plans of the MSs

- nuclear demand for global NES and for the GAINS strategy groups

Models of the ‘nuclear world’ built & agreed - homogeneous & heterogeneous models - grouping of countries with similar strategies - groups can operate separately or synergistically with NG1-recycling strategy group; NG2-direct disposal/reprocessing abroad NG3- minimal infrastructure: disposal or reprocessing abroad

The technological differences in nuclear strategy groups (NG) create incentives for mutually beneficial collaboration

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Analytical framework for assessing NES regarding sustainable development (2/3)

Four architectures of nuclear energy systems (NES) that meet the demand chosen • A homogeneous “business-as-usual (BAU)” system based

on PWRs (94%) and HWRs (6%) operated in a OTFC • A heterogeneous system: CNFC-FR & TR in NG1, OTFC-

TR in NG2; TR with minimal infrastructure in NG3 • Minor actinides (MA) reducing components (Accelerator

Driven Systems - ADS or Molten Salt Reactors - MSR) • Thorium FC with FR and TR. Added value to database

• The GAINS database has extended the IAEA library to simulate material flows for a wide range of reactors and FCs of different maturity

- Lack of reliable input data in economics and PR prevented making conclusions with the same certainty as in material flow analysis

- GAINS notes the value in making, under the IAEA auspice, the enhanced database for scenario studies.

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Analytical framework for assessing NES regarding sustainable development (3/3)

Selection of ‘Key Indicators (KI)’ for the evaluation of a global NES

- Ten KIs were identified by screening ~ 100 indicators of the INPRO methodology - These KIs depict nuclear power production by reactor types, resources, discharged

fuel, radioactive waste, fuel cycle services, costs and investment of a global NES

Analytical and computational tools - Different analytical tools and methods were used to obtain quantitative values:

• The codes disseminated by the IAEA: MESSAGE, NFCSS, and DESAE • National codes: DANESS (Republic of Korea), DESAE (Belgium, Russia),

COSI (France), FAMILY (Japan), TEPS (India), and VISION (USA). - A special template was developed for facilitating joint analysis and cross-checking

the results of simulation. The developed Analytical Framework enables to consider specific NES development strategies which countries may pursue. It allows to simulate important realities of the global NES and identify the areas for potentially beneficial multilateral cooperation between country groups to achieve long-term global sustainability

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Sample scenario studies (1/4)

FRs (BR1-1.2) in a separate NG1 provides U saving ~ 20% FRs in NG1 when it takes used fuel from NG2, NG3 results in U saving of ~ 40%. In this case by 2100: • Moderate demand (2500 GWe) can be met within 16 mln t U • High demand (5000 GWe) requires more U or development

of more advanced FCs based on higher FR BR or Thorium

Resource utilization

• Conventional 16-18 mln t of nat U assures fuel for the business-as-usual (BAU) system to mid-century for moderate- and high-growth scenarios

• However, by 2100, demand for the BAU architecture would exceed 18 mln t of nat U for both scenarios

Synergistic architectures can potentially significantly enhance the resource saving effect caused by innovative components of NES by making available resources (e.g. SNF) which otherwise might not be used. However, only the very first steps are made in the area

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Sample scenario studies (2/4)

Implementation of once-through global nuclear fuel cycle would result in progressive increasing SF&Pu accumulation (blue line in the fig) A separate model of the global NP when SF&Pu is being used in the NES TR&FR (BR=1.16) of the GAINS group 1 (red line in the fig), provides reduction of the accumulation rate but does not solve the problem globally A synergistic model of the global NES (BR<1.16) gives a principle opportunity to reduce SF & Pu accumulation to a minimal stock for operation need and thus to provide their effective managing (green line in the fig)

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Sample scenario studies (3/4)

Used fuel and direct use (Pu) material inventories

• If NG3, to avert or postpone building of intermediate or long-term SNF storages, send SNF to NG1 & NG2 (50%/50%), reprocessing loads in NG1 or capacities of storage facilities in NG2 is not practically impacted (figure: reprocessing load in G1 blue – TR; white –FR)

• To gain essential effect on the main sustainability indicators including U resource preservation, reducing of environmental and proliferation risks by reaching balance of generated & consumed fissile materials, the synergistic infrastructure in NG1-NG2 is to be radically changed comparing to separate case

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Sample scenario studies (4/4)

Economics and investment risks

• The synergistic global NFC gives an opportunity to many NE countries, especially newcomers, to reduce their investments in introduction and deployment of national NESs

• Providers of FC services expand markets and facilitate early return of R&D investments • All win from the economies of scale and stable nuclear fuel prices

Return of RD&D, demonstration and construction investments for innovative reactor technology (FR)

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Example of INS (100 GWe) FBR/ALWR driven by economic, resource, waste and PR concerns

Closed NFC • Depleted U from TR as fuel for FR : 100 t/a • HLW: 100 t/a

Open NFC • Nat U: 20 000 t/a • Depleted U for radwaste: 18 000 t/a • Spent fuel as HLW: 2 000 t/a

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Some observations and findings (1/2) • Calculations and then cross-checking of the results have shown similar trends between analytical tools used in the project when boundary conditions jointly agreed • There can be significant differences in the values of KIs assessed with the use of the homogeneous and heterogeneous models • The differences in nuclear energy strategies of different countries create incentives for mutually beneficial collaboration

Sample analysis have shown that a synergistic architectures based on technological and institutional innovations could provide a significant potential for win-win collaboration between all nuclear strategy groups

• It is understood that realization of the whole potential of a synergistic NES architecture is a long way with many obstacles to reaching industrial, public and political consensus. Healthy multilateral cooperation at the front end of the NFC is a good example and only a start up of the business

• The drivers for transition to the synergistic backend architecture such as high nuclear energy generation worldwide, lack of FM resource, accumulation of waste, investment problems will get going in a full scale by the mid-century; yet precautions should be made earlier

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Some observations and findings (2/2)

Dynamic modeling indicates: to provide timely global answers to global challenges of NE sustainable supply, building of the synergistic architecture at the NFC backend has to be started straight away

Further vision studies can be focused on specific segments of a global architecture such as regional NFC centers under auspices of the IAEA and consideration of practical steps which can be a part of the MSs’ and the IAEA efforts on enhancing sustainability features of the global NES

Initial steps in building the synergistic backend architecture would not lay big burden on NFC installations in NG1-NG2. However, some industrial, legislative and institutional problems have to be resolved such as acceptable cost of services, transit of fresh & spent fuel, public acceptance

In medium- and long-term prospect, when innovative systems like CNFC-FR, ADS, MSR, ThFC will be introduced for essential and scaled improvement of the global NES sustainability, radical updating of national-oriented infrastructure and legislation will be required

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Overall conclusions

• CP GAINS made a contribution to elaboration of an Analytical Framework for supporting NES development strategies which countries with different preferences in NE may pursue

• Sample analysis have shown quantitatively that a synergistic NES architecture based on

technological and institutional innovations could provide a potential for win-win collaboration between technology holders and users enabling to facilitate NE production, resources preservation, waste and direct use material inventory reductions, and to improve economics

• It is understood that realization of the potential of the synergistic NES architecture is a long way with many obstacles to reaching industrial, public and political consensus. However, to provide timely global answers to global challenges, the building of the synergistic architecture at the NFC backend has to be started straight away

• Further vision and scenario studies on the synergistic regional NES architectures as

well as substantiation of the practical steps in this direction could be a natural development of the GAINS activities as an integral part of the MSs’ and the IAEA efforts on enhancing sustainability features of the global NES: GAINS pass on the baton to SYNERGIES