ghg projections 2008 20202

8/7/2019 ghg projections 2008 20202

1/19

1

EPA Headquarters

PO Box 3000Johnstown Castle Estate

County Wexford, Ireland

T +353 53 9160600LoCall 1890 33 55 99

www.epa.ie

March 13th

2009

IRELANDS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PROJECTIONS 2008-2020

Summary

The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS 2007)1

designated the EPA with responsibility

for developing annual national emission projections for greenhouse gases (GHG) for all key

sectors of the economy, in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. Emission

projections serve to inform national policy initiatives, such as the annual Carbon Budget, and

allow Ireland to comply with EU reporting obligations on projections (e.g. Council Decision

280/2004).

The EPA will produce GHG emission projections annually as this will allow the most recent

environmental and other policy developments to be taken into account as well as updates to

key assumptions (such as revisions to anticipated economic growth). The projections

presented here update the previous set of national emissions projections which were

published in September 2008

2

by the EPA.

The projections presented here are, primarily, underpinned by SEIs energy forecasts which

are based on the Credit Crunch scenario from the ESRIs 2008 Medium-Term Review3

(the

forecast was updated to take account of the Autumn 2008 Quarterly Economic

Commentary4). This assumes a recession in the short term (2008-2009) but that the economy

reverts back to where it otherwise would have been by 2020. Since these energy forecasts

were prepared the economic outlook has deteriorated even further than anticipated. As a

result, an Economic Shockanalysis was carried out as part of a sensitivity analysis which is

presented and discussed.

It is most likely that the actual out-turn for future emissions of greenhouse gas emissions isbest reflected in the Economic Shockanalysis given the deterioration in the economic outlook

in recent months. It is unlikely that the extent of the economic down-turn will be limited to a

0.5% contraction in GDP in 2008 and 2009 (which is the basis for ESRIs Credit Crunch

scenario and hence the With Measures and With Additional Measures scenarios) but that a

deeper recession is now underway. As more up-to-date economic analysis and energy

forecasts become available, the EPA will update emissions projections accordingly.

1 National Climate Change Strategy 2007 - 2012. Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government.

(2007).2

Irelands National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections to 2020. Environmental Protection Agency. (2008).3Medium Term Review 2008 2015. Economic and Social Research Institute. (2008).

4 Quarterly Economic Commentary. Economic and Social Research Institute. (2008).


2/19

2

The emission projections have been produced, under two scenarios, for each key emission

sector up to 2020. An Economic Shockanalysis was applied to both scenarios. The two

scenarios show two potential outlooks for emissions to 2020 depending on policy

development and implementation.

(i) The With Measures scenario is based primarily on SEIs Baseline energy forecast5

which incorporates the anticipated impacts of policies and measures that were in

place (and legislatively provided for) by end of 2007.

(ii) The With Additional Measures scenario is based on SEIs White Paperenergy

forecast. The White Paperenergy forecast builds on the Baseline energy forecast

with additional assumptions to incorporate the targets and planned measures in the

Energy White Paper6

and revised National Energy Efficiency Action Plan7.

Therefore this scenario includes existing andplanned policies and measures.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets

Ireland is currently faced with meeting two targets with respect to greenhouse gas emissions.The first of these is the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC) which limits Irelands total national emissions to an average of

62.8 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum (13% above the baseline estimate) in the period 2008

2012.

The Kyoto Protocol is, however, only a first step in addressing the serious global threat of

climate change. The ultimate goal of the UNFCCC is to stabilise atmospheric concentrations

of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents dangerous human interference with the climate

system. Therefore, in January 2008 the EU Commission put forward a package of proposals

that will deliver on the European Union's commitments to fight climate change and promote

renewable energy up to 2020 and beyond. The package seeks to deliver a 20% reduction in

total EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (relative to 1990 levels) and at the same time to

increase to 20% the share of renewable energies in energy consumption. This package was

agreed, with some amendments, by the EU Parliament and Council in December 2008. The

emissions reduction will be increased to 30% by 2020 when a new global climate change

agreement is reached.

In the package, the total effort for greenhouse gas reductions by 2020 has been divided

between the sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and non-ETS

sectors8. For those sectors covered by the EU ETS, a single EU-wide cap has been agreed.

Consequently, there are no specific national emissions targets for emissions from ETS sectorsin 2020. For those sectors that are not covered by the EU ETS, individual targets for Member

States, which average out at 10% reduction in 2020 (compared to 2005), have been agreed.

The target for Ireland for non-ETS sector emissions is to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020

relative to 2005 levels which equates to 37.9 Mtonnes of CO2e emissions in 2020 (calculated

by the EU Commission in 2008).

5 Energy in Ireland. 1990-2007. Sustainable Energy Ireland. (2008).6

Delivering a Sustainable Energy Future for Ireland. The Energy Policy Framework 2007-2020. Department of

Communications, Marine and Natural Resources. (2007).7 National Energy Efficiency Action Plan for Ireland 2007 2020. Department of Communication, Energy and

Natural Resources. In preparation.8Non-ETS sector emissions refer to emissions from sources that are not included in the emissions trading

scheme such as transport, households, services, smaller industrial installations, agriculture and waste.


3/19

3

Comparison with Kyoto Protocol Limit (2008 2012)

The projections indicate the level of total national emissions in Ireland over the Kyoto period

2008 2012 and, therefore, indicate our distance to the Kyoto Protocol limit under the two

emissions projection scenarios and the Economic Shockanalysis. The impact of forest sinks is

included in each scenario as allowed for under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol. Theimplications for Government use of Kyoto Mechanisms and/or the need for additional

domestic action is summarised below:

Under the With Measures emission projection, Government use of KyotoMechanisms and/or additional domestic action of 5.2 Mtonnes of CO2e per

annum are required to meet our Kyoto Protocol limit.

Under the With Additional Measures emission projection, Government use of

Kyoto Mechanisms and/or additional domestic action of 3.6 Mtonnes of CO2e per

annum are required to meet our Kyoto Protocol limit.

Applying the Economic Shockanalysis to the With Additional Measures emission

projection indicates that Government use of Kyoto Mechanisms and/or additional

domestic action could reduce to between 1.3 1.8 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum.

Comparison with EU 2020 Targets for non-ETS sector emissions

The projections have been disaggregated into EU ETS and non-ETS sectors to allow a

comparison to be made with the 2020 target for non-ETS sector emissions. It was agreed by

the EU Parliament and Council in December 2008 that, in the event that an international

agreement on global reductions is not reached, Member States may include emissions andremovals from activities related to land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) towards

meeting the 20% reduction target (relative to 1990). The aim is that this proposal would enter

into force from 2013 onwards.

Under the With Measures scenario, non-ETS sector emissions are projected to be

15.9 Mtonnes of CO2e higher in 2020 than our 2020 target. Including the impact

of carbon sinks reduces the distance to target to 11.5 Mtonnes of CO2e.

Under the With Additional Measures scenario, national emissions are projected to

be 8.1 Mtonnes of CO2e higher in 2020 than our 2020 target. Including the impact

of carbon sinks reduces the distance to target to 3.8 Mtonnes of CO2e.Asignificant reduction in the distance to the 2020 target is projected in this scenario

relative to the With Measures scenario. This is attributable to the projected impact

of all policies and measures outlined in the Energy White Paper6

and the revised

Energy Efficiency Action Plan7

which predominantly come into effect between

2010 and 2020.

It is important to note that the With Additional Measures scenario assumes that (i)

all the relevant policies and measures outlined in these Government policy

documents will be adopted and fully implemented on time and (ii) all relevant

measures will achieve the full emissions reductions anticipated. Failure to deliver

these measures or a reduction in their environmental effectiveness will result in


4/19

4

higher emissions levels than projected. The difficulties associated with meeting

these criteria should not be underestimated.

Applying the Economic Shockanalysis to the With Additional Measures non-ETS

sector emission projection (including carbon sinks) for 2020 indicates a reduction

in the distance to target to 2.7 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum.


5/19

5

Background

The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS 2007)1

designated the EPA with responsibility

for developing annual national emission projections for greenhouse gases (GHG) for all key

sectors of the economy, in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. Emissions

projections serve to inform national policy initiatives, such as the annual Carbon Budget, andallow Ireland to comply with EU reporting obligations on projections (e.g. Council Decision

280/2004).

The EPA will produce GHG emission projections annually as this will allow the most recent

environmental and other policy developments to be taken into account as well as updates to

key assumptions (such as revisions to anticipated economic growth). The projections

presented here update the previous set of national emissions projections which were

published in September 20082

by the EPA.

The latest projections are given below with a discussion of the key trends and a commentary

on the significance of the figures in relation to Irelands commitments for the Kyoto period,2008 2012, and in relation to the EU 2020 emission targets for non-ETS sector emissions.

These projections are underpinned by data provided by a range of other State agencies and

organisations, most notably Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI) for energy forecasts and

Teagasc for forecast animal numbers. Energy-related emissions projections are based on

energy forecasts published by SEI in December 20085. These energy forecasts are based on

the same macro-economic assumptions that underpin the Credit Crunch scenario contained in

ESRIs Medium Term Review 2008 20153

which was revised in the Autumn of 2008 to

take account of the severity of the current economic downturn as outlined in ESRIs Autumn

2008 Quarterly Economic Commentary4. This implies annual average real GNP growth of

0.4% between 2008 and 2009 (3.4% growth in total between 2007 and 2010), increasing to4.8% per annum between 2010 and 2015 (26% growth in total between 2010 and 2015) and

4.2% between 2015 and 2020 (23% growth in total between 2015 and 2020). In terms of

GDP, the growth rates are 0.5% between 2008 and 2009 (2.8% growth in total between

2007 and 2010), 4.7% between 2010 and 2015 (26% growth in total between 2010 and 2015)

and 4.3% between 2015 and 2020 (23% growth in total between 2015 and 2020).

When publishing the energy forecasts, SEI state that these forecasts were produced during

September and October 2008 and by November ESRI anticipates that there would be even

lower growth in 2008-2009, although it is not expected to cause significant deviation in the

2020 projection. As a result, an Economic Shockanalysis was carried out as part of asensitivity analysis. In the Economic Shockanalysis, ESRI assume that GNP will contract by

7% between 2007 and 2010, grow by 33% between 2010 and 2015 and 24% between 2015

and 2020. In terms of GDP, the ESRI assume that GDP will contract by 8% between 2007

and 2010, grow by 33% between 2010 and 2015 and 25% between 2015 and 2020. The

scenario assumes that there will be a permanent loss in output or a scarring effect, so that the

level of GNP will be 5% below the SEI Baseline energy forecast in the long run and 4%

lower for GDP. The economic forecast underlying the Economic Shockanalysis is consistent

with the ESRIs Winter 2008 Quaterly Economic Commentary.


6/19

6

Irelands Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections

Two emissions projections were produced (underpinned by SEI energy forecasts and

therefore ESRIs Credit Crunch scenario) which show two potential outlooks to 2020

depending on policy development and implementation. These are called

With Measures

With Additional Measures

An Economic Shockanalysis was applied to both of these scenarios. A description of the two

scenarios and the Economic Shockanalysis is provided in Table 1.

Table 1. Description of Projection Scenarios

Scenario Basis for Projection

WithMeasuresScenario

Energy-related emissions projections

Based on SEI Baselineenergy forecast

5

. These energy forecasts are basedon the Credit Crunchscenario contained in ESRIs Medium Term Review

2008 20153

which was revised in the Autumn of 2008 to take account of the

severity of the current economic downturn as outlined in ESRIs Autumn 2008

Quarterly Economic Commentary4.

Agriculture emission projections

Based on forecast animal numbers produced by Teagasc in November 2008.

Waste

Assumes that per capita levels of waste generation and the share ofbiodegradable waste going to landfill remain at 2007 levels.

Forestry Projections of the future impact of forest sinks were provided by COFORD. It

is assumed that afforestation levels average 8,000 hectares per annum up to2020. Recent afforestation levels are below 10,000 hectares.

With

Additional

MeasuresScenario

Energy-related emissions projections

Based on SEI White Paperenergy forecast. The White Paperenergy forecastbuilds on the Baselineenergy forecast with additional assumptions introduced

to incorporate the measures and targets in the Energy White Paper6

and the

revised Energy Efficiency Action Plan7.

Agriculture emission projections

Same as With Measuresscenario.

Waste

Assumes that the Landfill Directive targets (Directive 1999/31/EC) will bereached in 2010, 2013 and 2016.

Forestry

Same as With Measuresscenario.

Economic

Shock

An Economic Shockanalysis was carried out on SEIs Baselineenergy forecast,which underpins the With Measuresscenario, for energy-related emissionsprojections.The same percentage reductions, as observed when the Economic Shockis appliedto the With Measuresscenario, were applied to the With Additional Measuresscenario.


7/19

7

WITH MEASURES SCENARIO

The trend in emissions from 1990 to 2007, with projected trends for the With Measures

scenario is shown in Figure 1. In addition, total projected emissions under the Economic

Shockanalysis are shown.

Figure 1. Historical and projected trends in GHG Emissions for the With Measures scenario 1990-2020

The With Measures scenario is based on SEIs Baseline energy forecast. Under theWith Measures scenario, GHG emissions in Ireland are projected to increase by 2%

between 2007 and 2020, implying an average annual growth rate of 0.2%. This

includes forest sinks (assuming afforestation levels of 8,000 hectares per annum) as

allowed for under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol.

Under the Economic Shockanalysis (applied to the With Measures scenario), total

greenhouse gas emissions projections are projected to be 6% lower in 2010, 3% lower

in 2015 and 2% lower in 2020 compared with the With Measure scenario. Emissions

in 2020 are projected to be the same as in 2007 under this analysis when carbon sinks

are also included.

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

85,000

ktonnes,CO2e

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020

Energy Resident ia l Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Carbon sinks Economic Shock


8/19

8

WITH ADDITIONAL MEASURES SCENARIO

The trend in emissions from 1990 to 2007, with projected trends for the With Additional

Measures emission projection is shown in Figure 2. In addition, total projected emissions

under the Economic Shockanalysis are shown.

Figure 2. Historical and projected trends in GHG Emissions for the With Additional Measures

scenario 1990-2020

Under the With Additional Measures emission projection, GHG emissions in Ireland

are projected to decrease by 18% between 2007 and 2020 which implies an annual

average reduction of 1.5%. This includes forest sinks (assuming afforestation levels of

8,000 hectares per annum) as allowed for under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol.

As stated above, the With Additional Measures emission projection is based on SEIs

White Paperenergy forecast and includes targets and planned policies and measures

from the Energy White Paper6

and the revised Energy Efficiency Action Plan7

as well

as existing and currently implemented policies and measure. The key measures from

the Energy White Paper and the revised Energy Efficiency Action Plan are:

(i) By 2020, Ireland will have achieved a 20% improvement in energy efficiency

(ii) By 2020, renewable energy will contribute

33% of gross electricity consumption

10% of non-aviation transport energy

12% of thermal energy

It should be noted that while the White Paperenergy forecast assumes the Energy

White Paper targets will be met, not all of the targets are currently associated with

specific measures.

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

ktonnes,CO2e

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020

Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Carbon sinks Economic Shock Carbon sinks


9/19

9

The Economic Shockanalysis is also shown in Figure 2. These data are derivedsimply by applying the same percentage reduction to the With Additional Measures

emissions projection as observed when the Economic Shockwas applied to the With

Measures scenario. Therefore, when the Economic Shockanalysis is applied to the

With Additional Measure scenario, total greenhouse gas emissions projections are

projected to be 6% lower in 2010, 3% lower in 2015 and 2% lower in 2020.Emissions in 2020 are projected to be 20% lower compared to 2007 under this

analysis when carbon sinks are also included.

The overall results are summarised in Table 2.

Table 2. Summary of % Changes in Emissions Projections

Scenario% changes between

2007 and 2020Annual average changebetween 2007 and 2020

With Measures With forest sinks 2% 0.2%

Economic Shock

on With Measuresscenario

With forest sinks 0% 0%

With Additional

MeasuresWith forest sinks -18% -1.5%

Economic Shock

on With Additional

Measures scenario

With forest sinks -20% -1.7%

Note forest sinks = afforestation


10/19

10

BY SECTOR

Figure 3 shows the projected contributions from each of the sectors to total national

emissions for the With Measures and With Additional Measures scenario averaged over the

2008 2012 period. Agriculture and transport sector emissions account for around 50% of

emissions under both scenarios.

Figure 3. Projected share of total greenhouse gas emissions by sector averaged over the period 2008 2012

Figure 4 shows the projected contributions from each of the non-ETS sectors to total non-

ETS sectors emissions in 2020. Under the two emissions projections, agriculture and

transport sector emissions account for around 70% of total non-ETS emissions.

Figure 4. Projected share of non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2020

Energy

21%

Residential

11%

Industry &

Commercial

16%

Agriculture

28%

Transport

21%

Waste

3% Energy

20%

Residential

11%

Industry &

Commercial

16%

Agriculture

28%

Transport

22%

Waste

3%

With Measures With Additional Measures

Agriculture

33%

Transport

34%

Industry&

Commercial

11%

Residential

17%

Waste

4%

Energy - non-CO2

1%

Agriculture

39%

Transport

35%

Industry&

Commercial8%

Residential

14%

Waste

3%

Energy - non-CO2

1%

With Measures With Additional Measures


11/19

11

Transport

Under the With Measures scenario, transport emissions are projected to increase by26% over the period 2007 2020 to 18.1 Mtonnes of CO2e.

Under the With Additional Measures scenario, transport emissions are projected toincrease by 11% over the period 2007 2020 to 16.0 Mtonnes of CO2e. In this

scenario, it is assumed that the use of biofuels increases to 10% of all road transport

fuel use by 2020 which will have a significant impact on CO2 emissions from this

sector. In addition, policies and measures such as the delivery of Transport 21 and its

alignment with spatial planning, an energy efficient driving campaign and the recent

changes to VRT and motor tax so that they are linked to CO2 emissions are included

in this scenario.

The growth in transport emissions is projected to slow significantly compared with

the annual growth rate between 1990 and 2007. This is attributable to a projected

slow-down in economic growth, particularly up to 2010. Improving the quality and

robustness of transport emission projections will be a key focus for future work.

Transport sector emissions are highly dependent on key forecast variables including

economic indicators such as GDP, vehicle technology and the future travel behaviour

of individuals. A continual focus on these key underlying drivers and their impact on

transport emission levels will be important.

Energy

Under the With Measures scenario, emissions are projected to increase by 1% over the

period 2007 2020 to 15.0 Mtonnes of CO2e. In this scenario, it is assumed that 15%of Irelands gross electricity consumption comes from renewable energy by 2010.

Under the With Additional Measures scenario, emissions are projected to decrease by

37% between 2007 and 2020 to 9.4 Mtonnes of CO2e. The model is specified, in this

scenario, to allow renewable energy to contribute 33% of gross electricity

consumption by 2020 (primarily windbut also biomass). In addition, energy

efficiency improvements, in line with targets set down in the Energy White Paper6

and the revised Energy Efficiency Action Plan7, are forecast to reduce demand for

electricity which subsequently impacts on emissions from this sector.

Under both With Measures and With Additional Measures emissions projections,combined emissions from all ETS sectors are projected to be below the annual

allocation of allowances that operators received under the second National Allocation

Plan9. This is as a result of the projected slow-down in economic growth over the

short-term and, in addition, a projected increase in electricity imports from the UK

which will displace the use of fossil fuels in the production of electricity in Ireland.

9 Irelands National Allocation Plan for Emissions Trading 2008-2012. Environmental Protection Agency.(2008).


12/19

12

Agriculture

There is only one scenario for agricultural emission projections. Emissions areprojected to decrease by 4% over the period 2007 2020 to 17.8 Mtonnes of CO2e.

The agricultural emissions projections presented here are 10% lower in 2020

compared to those published by the EPA in 20082.

Agricultural emissions projections are based on forecast animal numbers produced by

Teagasc in November 2008. These forecasts take account of the most recent

developments (as of November 2008) in relation to removal of milk quota. The agreed

increase in Irish milk quota between now and the quota removal date in 2015 will be

slightly over 5%. The EPAs agricultural projections, published in 2008, were

predicated on higher dairy cow numbers as it was assumed at that time that the

increase in Irish milk quota would be significantly greater than 5%.

Residential

Under the With Measures scenario, emissions from the residential sector are projected

to increase by 29% to 9.1 Mtonnes of CO2e between 2007 and 2020. Energy demand

from the residential sector is significantly higher over the projection period compared

to the SEIs previous energy forecast10

. This is because of two key changes to the

underlying energy demand model, namely (i) the forecast for real personal disposable

income has increased and (ii) the sensitivity of the forecast to real personal disposable

income has also increased. Real disposable income is a key determinant in forecasting

non-electricity energy demand from the residential sector. These changes have

resulted in a higher forecast energy demand from the residential sector and therefore

higher associated emissions.


6% between 2007 and 2020 to 6.6 Mtonnes of CO2e. Under this scenario, the impact

of policies and measures, primarily, from the revised National Energy Efficiency

Action Plan7

are included. These measures include Building Regulations, SEI Warmer

Homes Scheme and Home Energy Saving Scheme. The impact of these planned

measures was re-assessed by SEI during 2008 and in some cases anticipated

emissions savings were reduced. As a result the With Additional Measures emission

projection for the residential sector presented here is significantly higher than

previously projected2.

Industry and Commercial Services

Under the With Measures scenario, emissions from the industry and commercialservices sector are projected to increase by 3% between 2007 and 2020. Projected

emissions from this sector are lower than those published by the EPA in 20082; this is

primarily due to the projected decrease in activity from the cement industry,

particularly in the short-term, as a result of the economic down-turn11

. In addition,

projected emissions from the commercial services sector are lower than those

10

Energy in Ireland 1990-2006. Sustainable Energy Ireland. (2007).11Projected emissions from the cement industry were estimated based on the projected down-turn in the

economy and in housing completions as forecast by the ESRI.


13/19

13

published in 20082. Demand for gas in the commercial services sector is now forecast

to be greater over the projection period while demand for oil is lower. Switching to a

cleaner fuel will result in lower associated emissions.

Under the With Additional Measures scenario, emissions from the industry and

commercial services sector are projected to decrease by 21% between 2007 and 2020.In this scenario, energy demand from industrial and commercial services sectors

decreases relative to the With Measures scenario as energy efficiency policies and

measures (as outlined in the Energy White Paper6

and the revised Energy Efficiency

Action Plan7) are assumed to be adopted and implemented. These include the

implementation of forthcoming building regulations, SEI schemes such as SEI Energy

Agreements and the RES-H target (i.e. 12% thermal heat to come from renewables by

2020).

Waste

Under the With Measures scenario, emissions from the waste sector are projected toincrease by 18% between 2007 and 2020 to 2.3 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum. In this

scenario, it is assumed that waste generation levels and the share of biodegradable

waste going to landfill remain at 2007 levels.


28% below 2007 levels to 1.4 Mtonnes of CO2e in 2020. In this scenario, it is

assumed that the Landfill Directive targets (Directive 1999/31/EC), for the diversion

of biodegradable waste from landfill, are met progressively in 2010, 2013 and 2016.


14/19

14

Comparison with Kyoto Protocol Limit

Under the Kyoto Protocol, Ireland is required to limit total national greenhouse gas emissions

to 314.2 Mtonnes of CO2e over the five year period 2008 2012 which is equivalent to 62.8

Mtonnes of CO2e per annum. This is calculated as 13% above Irelands 1990 baseline value

which was established and fixed at 55.60 Mtonnes of CO2e following an in-depth review ofIrelands 2006 greenhouse gas inventory submissions to the UNFCCC.

Figure 5 shows emissions for the period 1990 to 2020 for each scenario and compares with

the Kyoto Protocol limit for the 2008 2012 period. Projected emissions include the impact

of forest sinks as allowed for under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol.

Figure 5. Historical and projected GHG Emissions for each scenario and the Kyoto Protocol target

Table 3 shows the projected annual average emissions for the period 2008 2012 for the

With Measures and With Additional Measures scenarios and the subsequent distance to the

Kyoto Protocol limit (62.8 Mtonnes of CO2e). The distance to the limit is disaggregated to

show the contribution expected from ETS sectors and non-ETS sectors. It can be seen that

emissions from the sectors covered by the ETS are below the annual allocation of allowances

as set out in the second National Allocation Plan9.

An Economic Shockanalysis was carried out on SEIs Baseline energy forecast, which

underpins the With Measures scenario, for energy-related emissions projections. The same

percentage reductions, as observed with the Economic Shockis applied to the With Measures

scenario, were applied to the With Additional Measures scenario. The energy model was not

re-run and therefore the analysis does not constitute an alternative or new scenario. In this

analysis, ESRI assume that GNP will contract by 7% between 2007 and 2010, grow by 33%

between 2010 and 2015 and 24% between 2015 and 2020. In terms of GDP, the ESRI assume

that GDP will contract by 8% between 2007 and 2010, grow by 33% between 2010 and 2015

and 25% between 2015 and 2020. The analysis shows a permanent loss in output or a

scarring effect, so that the level of GNP will be 5% below the SEI Baseline energy forecast

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

ktonnes,CO2e

Total historic GHG emissions EU ETS

Projections (With Measures) Projections (With Additional Measures)

Projections (With Additional Measures and carbon sinks) Economic Shock (on With Additional Measures and carbon sinks)

Kyoto Target Kyoto Protocol base year emissions

KyotoProtocol

CommitmentPeriod

(2008-2012)


15/19

15

(which underpins the With Measures emission projection) in the long run and 4% lower for

GDP.

Under the Economic Shockanalysis, emissions are projected to be 6% lower in 2010

compared with annual average emissions over the Kyoto Period for the With Measures

emission projection, 3% lower in 2015 and 2% lower in 2020. Applying the same percentagereductions to the With Additional Measures emission projection indicates that the

Government use of Kyoto Mechanisms and/or additional domestic action could reduce to

between 1.3 1.8 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum over the Kyoto Period. The Government

purchasing requirement or additional domestic action is presented as a range to account for

some degree of uncertainty in the impact of the economic down-turn over the entire Kyoto

Period.

It is most likely that the actual out-turn for future emissions of greenhouse gas emissions is

best reflected in the Economic Shockanalysis given the deterioration in the economic outlook

in recent months. It is unlikely that the extent of the economic down-turn will be limited to a

0.5% contraction in GDP in 2008 and 2009 (which is the basis for ESRIs Credit Crunchscenario and hence the With Measures and With Additional Measures scenarios) but that a

deeper recession is now underway. As more up-to-date economic analysis and energy

forecasts become available, the EPA will update emissions projections accordingly.

Table 3. Projected annual average emissions for 2008-2012 and distance to Kyoto Protocol limit

With Measures (WM)With Additional

Measures (WAM)Economic Shock on

WAM

Mtonnes of CO2eProjectedemissions

Distanceto Limit

Projectedemissions

Distanceto Limit

Projectedemissions

Distanceto Limit

2008-2012 65.4 2.5 61.8 -1.0 58.4 -4.5

Attributed to EU ETS 19.6* na 17.7* na 16.6* Attributed to Non-

ETS45.8 na 44.2 na 41.8 42.3

GovernmentPurchases/Additional

Domestic Action5.2** na 3.6*** na 1.3-1.8****

Numbers may not sum exactly due to rounding

* Emissions from sectors covered by the ETS are projected to be below the annual allocation as set out in the second National Allocation

Plan 2008-2012 of 22.3 Mtonnes of CO2 per annum.** 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) 22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO2e - 45.8 = - 5.2 Mtonnes of CO2e

*** 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) 22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO2e 44.2 = - 3.6 Mtonnes of CO2e

**** 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) 22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO2e 41.8 = - 1.3 Mtonnes of CO2e.


16/19

16

Comparison with EU 2020 Target

for the Non-ETS Sector Emissions

The Kyoto Protocol is only a first step in addressing the serious global threat of climate

change. The ultimate goal of the UNFCCC is to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of

greenhouse gases at a level that prevents dangerous human interference with the climatesystem. Therefore, in January 2008 the EU Commission put forward a package of proposals

that will deliver on the European Union's commitments to fight climate change and promote

renewable energy up to 2020 and beyond. The package seeks to deliver a 20% reduction in

total EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (relative to 1990 levels) and at the same time

increase to 20% the share of renewable energies in energy consumption. The emissions

reduction will be increased to 30% by 2020 when a new global climate change agreement is

reached. Agreement was reached on this package, with some amendments, by the EU

Parliament and Council in December 2008 on legally binding targets to cut greenhouse gas

emissions by 20%, to establish a 20% share for renewable energy and to improve energy

efficiency by 20% by 2020.

In the EU Climate Change Package, the total effort for greenhouse gas reductions by 2020

has been divided between the EU ETS and non-ETS sectors. The following approach has

been adopted:

(i) A single EU wide cap for all emissions covered by the EU ETS, ensuring a level

playing field in the single European market for industrial installations, with a 21%

reduction in EU ETS sector emissions by 2020 (compared to 2005). The annual

cap will decrease along a linear trend line which will continue beyond the end of

the third trading period (2013 2020). Consequently, there are no specific

national emissions targets for emissions from those sectors covered by the EUETS in 2020.

(ii) An EU-wide reduction of around 10% in 2020 (compared to 2005) for the sectors

that are not covered by the EU ETS. Individual targets for Member States have

been agreed which average out at a total 10% reduction in 2020 (compared to

2005). GDP per capita was used as the main criterion when setting the targets for

Member States. The target for Ireland for non-ETS sectors is to reduce emissions

by 20% in 2020 relative to 2005 levels; the limit was calculated by the EU

Commission as 37.9 Mtonnes of CO2e.

Taken together, the combined ETS and non-ETS EU-wide reductions will result in an overallreduction of 14% compared to 2005, which is equivalent to a reduction of 20% compared to

1990.

The projections presented here were disaggregated into EU ETS and the non-ETS sectors to

allow a comparison to be made with the 2020 target for non-ETS sector emissions. Table 5

deals only with non-ETS sectors and shows the absolute level of emissions projected for

2020, percentage change for each scenario in 2020 relative to 2005 emission levels and the

implied distance to the 2020 target.

It was agreed by the EU Parliament and Council in December 2008 that, in the event that an

international agreement on global reductions is not reached, Member States may includeemissions and removals from activities related to land-use, land-change and forestry


17/19

17

(LULUCF) towards meeting the 20% reduction target (relative to 1990). The aim is that this

proposal would enter into force from 2013 onwards.

Table 5. Projected emissions for non-ETS sector emissions, percentage change relative to 2005 emissions and

distance to 2020 EU Commission Target

Mtonnes of CO2e With MeasuresScenarioWith Additional

MeasuresScenarioEconomic Shock on

WAM WITHOUT CARBON SINKS*

2020 53.8 46.0 44.9

% change relative to2005

+14% -3% -5%

Distance to 20% 2020target

#

15.9 8.1 7.0

WITH CARBON SINKS*

2020 49.4 41.7 40.6% change relative to

2005

+4% -12% -14%

Distance to 20% 2020target

#

11.5 3.8 2.7

* Carbon sinks = additional afforestation# EU Target for non-ETS emissions in 2020 is 37.9 Mtonnes of CO2e (calculated by the EU Commission)

Applying the Economic Shockanalysis to the With Additional Measures non-ETS sector

emission projection (including carbon sinks) for 2020 indicates a reduction in the distance to

target to from 3.8 Mtonnes to 2.7 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum.

The importance of carbon sinks (i.e. planting of new forests afforestation at the level of

8,000 hectares per annum up to 2020) is evident from Table 5 where it is projected by

COFORD that carbon sinks will sequester in the order of 4 Mtonnes of CO2 in 2020. Theinclusion of carbon sinks in emissions accounting post-Kyoto are critically important for

Ireland and will play a significant role in bringing Ireland closer to its 2020 target for non-

ETS sector emissions.

Figure 6 shows emissions for the period 2005 to 2020 for each scenario, including the

Economic Shockanalysis applied to the With Additional Measures scenario (with carbon

sinks), and Irelands 2020 target for non-ETS sector emissions.


18/19

18

Figure 6. Total non-ETS sector GHG Emissions for each scenario, compared to hypothetical pathway for

20% reduction target

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total historic non-ETS Projections (With Measures)

Proj ec tions (W it h A ddit ional M eas ures ) Projec tions (W it h Addi tional M eas ures and c arbon s ink s)

Economic Shock (on With Addit ional Measures and carbon s inks) 2020 Target


19/19

Appendix

Units: 1 Mt = 1,000 kilotonnes = 1,000,000 tonnes

CO2e: total greenhouse gas emissions expressed as CO2 equivalents. The CO2 emission is

added to the equivalent emission of methane, nitrous oxide and so-called F-gases which areconverted to CO2 equivalents using their global warming potentials.

F-gases: These gases comprise the following three gases, HFCs (Hydroflurocarbons), PFCs

(Perfluorcarbons) and SF6 (Sulphur Hexafluoride). They have very much higher global

warming potentials than the naturally occurring GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous

oxide).

Table 1. Historical and projected emissions by sector (Mtonnes CO2e per annum) for With Measures and

With Additional Measures scenarios

Energy Residential Industry &Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste CarbonSinks

Total

(Withoutcarbonsinks)

Total

(Withcarbonsinks)

1990 11.7 7.4 9.8 19.9 5.2 1.5 - 55.4 -1995 14.0 6.4 10.0 20.9 6.3 1.7 - 59.2 -2000 16.7 6.6 12.7 20.5 10.8 1.6 - 69.0 -2005 16.3 7.4 12.2 19.6 13.0 1.8 - 70.3 -2006 15.5 7.3 12.0 19.3 13.7 1.8 - 69.7 -2007 14.9 7.1 12.4 18.6 14.4 1.9 - 69.2 -

With MeasuresScenario

2008-12 14.5 7.4 11.0 18.2 14.4 2.0 -2.2 67.6 65.42015 14.5 8.2 11.5 18.0 16.2 2.2 -3.4 70.6 67.12020 15.0 9.1 12.8 17.8 18.1 2.3 -4.4 75.1 70.8

With Additional MeasuresScenario

2008-12 12.7 7.1 10.2 18.2 13.9 2.0 -2.2 64.1 61.8

2015 10.7 6.9 9.7 18.0 14.8 1.8 -3.4 61.8 58.4

Historical

2020 9.4 6.6 9.8 17.8 16.0 1.4 -4.4 61.0 56.7

Numbers may not sum exactly due to rounding

Table 2. Historical and projected emissions for the non-ETS sector (Mtonnes CO2e) for With Measures and

With Additional Measures scenarios

Non-ETS Sector Forest sinks Total(With Forest sinks)

2005 48.3 - 48.32006 48.4 - 48.42007 48.4 - 48.4

With MeasuresScenario

2010 47.9 -2.2 45.6

2015 50.5 -3.4 47.02020 53.8 -4.4 49.4

With Additional MeasuresScenario

2010 46.4 -2.2 44.12015 45.9 -3.4 42.4

2020 46.0 -4.4 41.7

ghg projections 2008 20202

Documents

Transcript of ghg projections 2008 20202