GHG Emissions and Mitigation Potentials in Agriculture

Tomoko HASEGAWAGraduate school of Engineering, Kyoto University

15,16 February,2009,11th AIM International Workshop

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

F-gases1%N2O

8%CH4

14%

CO2(other)2.8%

CO2 fossilfuel use

57%

CO2

(deforestation, etc)17%

residential aland

commercial8%

transport13%

energysupply26% industry

19%

deforestation 17%

agriculture14%

waste andwastewater

3%

Contribution Ratio to Global Warming• Agriculture accounts for ...

– 14% of total GHG emission.– 50% of total CH4 emission and 60% of N2O emission in

2005 (IPCC, 2007).

contribution ratio by Gascontribution ratio by Sector

Agriculture

スライド 2

ｈ3 単位を，MtCO2eqに！長谷川　知子, 2008/01/27

Objectives(1) To estimate and evaluate global GHG emissions and

reduction potentials in Agriculture(2) To specify effective technologies, regions and emission

sources with high reduction potentials

To evaluate GHG emissions and reduction potentials, we need to integrate the relating events such as…

agriculturalproduction

economic development

population growth

changing food needs

production efficiency

technical innovationGHG

emission

climate change

GHG reduction technology

Future populationscenario

Exogenous variables

Agriculture Trade Model

Methodology

World regions

determines combination and stocks ofGHG reduction technologies

Enduse Model

• Model is used for estimation.

Future economic scenario

GHG emissionsReduction Potentials

Top-down

Bottom

-up

Production of agricultural commodities

Agricultural Trade Model (ATM)• Structure: Partial equilibrium model

1200 functions and equations• Input: Population and GDP• Output: Production of agricultural commodities• Calibration term: 1971 - 2003• Estimation term: 2004 - 2030• Region: 23 world regions

World price

Shipping cost Tax and tariff

Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price

Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP

Consumption

Stocks

23 world regions

Endogenousvariable

P

Q0

World Market

P

Q0

Domestic Market

Net trade

Production

Structure

Exogenousvariable

World price

Shipping cost Tax and tariff

Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price

Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP

Consumption

Stocks

23 world regions

P

Q0

World Market

P

Q0

Domestic Market

Net trade

Production

23 world regions are connected

through world market.

Endogenousvariable

Exogenousvariable

World price is decidedin order to take balance

in the world.

Structure

World price

Shipping cost Tax and tariff

Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price

Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP

Consumption

Stocks

23 world regions

P

Q0

World Market

P

Q0

Domestic Market

Net trade

Production

Structure

Endogenousvariable

Exogenousvariable

Consumer price and producer price are related to world price.

Policies, tax and tariff are given exogenously.

World price

Shipping cost Tax and tariff

Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price

Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP

Consumption

Stocks

23 world regions

Endogenousvariable

P

Q0

World Market

P

Q0

Net trade

Production

Structure

Exogenousvariable

Production function

Consumption function

Functions: Production and Consumption

• Production function

• Consumption (Con.) function

• Import and export are also decided by prices.

, , , , 1 , ,( , )i r t i r t j r tProduction f Production Producer Price

, ,

, , , ,

, ,

, , , ,

.

( , , ).

( , )

i r t

i r t r t r t

i r t

i r t i r t

Food Con

f Consumer price GDPcap PopulationFeed Con

f Consumer price Livestock production

World price

Shipping cost Tax and tariff

Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price

Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP

Consumption

Stocks

23 world regions

P

Q0

World Market

P

Q0

Domestic Market

Net trade

Production

Production, consumption and trade are calculated to take balance in one region.

Structure

Endogenousvariable

Exogenousvariable

Balance Equations• Domestic balance equation

• World balance equation

, , , ,

, , , , , ,

i r t i r t

i r t i r t i r t

Production ImportConsumption Export Stock

, , , ,i r t i r tr r

Export Import

Future populationscenario

Exogenous variables

Agriculture Trade Model

Methodology

world regions

decides combination and stocks ofGHG reduction technologies

Enduse Model

• Model is used for estimation.

Future economic scenario

GHG emissionsReduction Potentials

Top-down

Bottom

-up

Production of agricultural commodities

23 world regions

Technology 1Technology 2Technology 3

GHG emissions/Reduction potentials

Enduse Model

Production

Technology Database

• Structure: Dynamic model• Input: Agricultural production• Outputs: GHG emissions and Reduction potentials• Calculates combination and stocks of GHG reduction technologies

in order to minimize total reduction cost.

Croplands Livestock animals

Technology 4Technology 5Technology 6

Reduction Cost → Minimum

Technology Stock ChangeA number of technology (tech. ) is changed by 1) exchange

and 2) introduction.

② Introduced Technology

①Exchange

Tech2

Stock (T)=Stock(T-1) –①exchanged tech.(T) + ②Introduced tech.(T)

Technology change is calculated in order to minimize total reduction cost. Te

chno

logy

sto

cks

Tech1

2000 ･･･ T-1 T ･･･ 2030 [year]

The number of livestock animal, orThe area of croplands

････

Tech

1

Application

Objective• 23 world regions• 2000-2030• Population: medium estimates of UN(2006)• GDP: Akashi (2009)

Emission SourcesEnteric fermentation

Manure managementCropland and Soils

Rice paddy

GasesCH4

CH4, N2ON2O

CH4, N2O

0100020003000400050006000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

CH 4

+N2O

Em

issi

on [M

tCO

2eq]

Cropland and Soils N2ORice paddy CH4Manure management N2OManure management CH4Enteric fermentation CH4

Baseline Emission in 2000-2030• World GHG emission will increase by 1.4 times by 2030.• In 2030,emissions from croplands and livestock enteric

fermentation account for 40% and 30% of it respectively.• Emission from livestocks will increase at high growth rate.• Emission from rice paddy will decrease.

40%

30%

1.4 times3959MtCO2eq 5591MtCO2eq

ｈ2

スライド 18

ｈ2 C:¥GAMS¥Emission Model vol2¥output¥ReducionPotential長谷川　知子, 2008/08/14

GHG Emission in 2000, 2030

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

This

stu

dyU

SE

PA A B C

FAO

This

stu

dyU

SE

PA A B C

FAO

GH

G E

mis

sion

[MtC

O 2eq

] .

Rice paddy CH4Cropland and Soils N2OManure management N2OManure management CH4Enteric fermentation CH4

in 2000 in 2030

• GHG Emission of this study is middle of other estimates.• Cropland and Soils and Enteric Fermentations occupy

high contribution ratio.

IMAGE2.1 IMAGE2.1

Which is Effective Source?In 2030 Reduction Potential by Source

• In 2030, total max. reduction potential is 1403 Mt CO2eq.• Technologies for rice paddy is good.• Technologies for enteric fermentation is not good.

Reduction Potentials [MtCO2eq] Marginal Abatement Cost [US$/tCO2eq]Emission sources <0 <20 <50 <100 >100Enteric fermentation CH4 0 0 3 41 255Manure management CH4 0 95 98 110 345Manure management N2O 0 56 57 62 205Rice paddy CH4 0 367 381 381 381Cropland and Soils N2O 148 198 198 198 217Total 148 716 737 793 1403

35% of total GHG emission from agriculture in 2000.

367 381 381 381

0 3 41 255

Where is Effective Region?In 2030 Reduction Potential by region

• Reduction Potential in China, India and USA is large.• Measurements in there regions take comparative low costs.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

JapanEU15USA

other developedChinaIndia

transition countriesother developing

GHG reduction potentials [MtCO2eq]

<00-2020-5050-100>100

Marginalreduction cost[US$/tCO2eq]

0 20 40 60 80 100

Anaerobic Digestion -Centralised plantAnaerobic Digestion -Farmscale plant

Covered lagoonDaily spread of manure

Slowing down anaerobic decompositionPribiotics

Propionate precursorsAmmonium sulfate

Midseason drainageOff-season strawShallow flooding

Upland riceAddition of Phosphogypsum

Rice Straw CompostDirect Wet Seeding

Alternative flooding/DrainageSpreader maintenance

Fertilizer Free ZoneOptimize distribution geometry

Nitrogen inhibitorConvert fertilizational tillage to no-till

Split fertilizationReduce fertilization to 70%Reduce fertilization to 80%Reduce fertilization to 90%

Sub-optimal fertilizer application

Average annual reduction potentials [MtCO2eq/yr]

<0<20<50<100>100

Marginal Abatement Cost[US$/tCO2eq]

What is Effective Technology ?

Good but expensive

Not good

The highest economic efficiency

ConclusionWe introduced a model to estimate GHG emissions and reduction potentials in agriculture. We showed you an application to estimate and specify effective technologies, high reduction potential regions and emission sources.

• Total non-CO2 emission from agriculture is about 3959 MtCO2eq in 2000.

• Major emission source is Cropland and Soils．• In 2030, the maximum global reduction potential is

expected to be 1403 MtCO2eq(35% of emission in 2000). • China and India have major reduction potentials.• The reduction technology with most economically

efficient is expected to be "daily spread of manure ".

Thank you for your attention