November 4. 2013

GHG Emission BAU in the Industrial Process Sector

Kevin KIM Korea Energy Management Corporation, KEMCO

1

2

3

BAU Estimation

Result

Background

Energy consumption & GHG emissions

01

primary & final energy consumption CO2 emissions

LNG

1990

Nuclear

Renewables, etc

Oil

Coal

Energy

Industrial process

Agriculture, waste

(Mtoe) (Mt CO2)

2000 2011

Energy consumption by sector(‘11)

Industry 61.6%

30.4%

Transport 18.2%

Transportation 7.9%

etc 2.2%

38.1%

16.8%

11.7%

3.0%

26.2%

53.8%

3.2% 14.2% 2.6%

22.2%

52.0%

9.8%

1.8%

14.1%

5.3% 11.2% 7.8%

9.4% 6.8% 11.4%

85.3% 81.9% 80.7%

93.2

192.9

275.7

296.1

512.0 668.8

Industry 29.2%

Residential/Commercial 10.3%

etc 1.3% Transport

14.8%

Power generation

44.5%

1990 2000 2010 Industrial sector (9.4%)

205.9 (Mtoe)

(6) 02

The Industrial sector amount : 9.4%(62.8Mt CO2) of total national emission (2010)

GHG emission trend in industrial sector (1990~2010)

Annual increase rate of 9.1% in the total emission, compared to 2009 (2010)

Mineral production

Emission source

Chemical industry

Metal production

Halocarbon production/consumption

HFCs, PFCs, SF6 consumption(49.2%) and Mineral industry(49.2%) accounts for 98.4% (2010)

CO2,(49.7%) > SF6(31.4%) > HFCs(13%), (2010)

All of source from industrial sector has increased compared to 2009 except for chemistry(-4.1%)

Mineral production

Halocarbon consumption

Chemistry

Halocarbon production

(6) 03

Projected National GHG Reduction Path

(2010–2020)

Projected National GHG Reduction Path

(2010–2020)

(6) 04

05

(6) 07

Emission in the process of producing

Times series differs from common consumption pattern

Activity description in industrial sector

Technology change, Market trend applied

Methodology

Methodology verification process

(6) 06

Source Specific Source Methodology approach

2.A. Mineral

1. Cement production 2. Lime production 3. Limestone/Dolomite usage 4. Sodium carbonate

production/consumption

Activity→1996 IPCC GL/GPG 2000→Emission

(CO2)

2.B. Chemistry

1. Ammonia production (CO2) 2. Nitric Acid production (N2O) 3. Adipic Acid Production (N2O) 4. Petrochemical product (CH4)

Activity→1996 IPCC GL/GPG 2000 Emission

(CO2, CH4, N2O)

2.C.Metal 1. Steel production 2. Ferro Alloy production

Activity→1996 IPCC GL Emission

(CO2)

2.D. Extra 1. Paper 2. Food

Activity→1996 IPCC GL Emission (Indirect emission)

2.E.HFCs,PFCs,SF6 production

1. By-product (HFCs) Activity→1996 IPCC GL Emission

(HFCs)

2.F.HFCs,PFCs,SF6 consumption

1. Cooling & Air-condition (HFCs) 2. Semiconductor and Display (PFCs) 3. Electric Appliance (SF6)

Activity→1996 IPCC GL/ 2006 IPCC GL Emission

(HFCs, PFCs, SF6)

(6) 07

Emission mitigation though CDM project

- The emission coming from Nitro Acid, Adipic Acid production plant is

applied to national emission inventory

2006 IPCC GL is partly applied

- HFCs, PFCs, SF6 consumed at Semiconductor, Display sector

2006 IPCC Coefficient appliance (Methodology : 2000 Good Practice Guidance)

CO2 emission recalculation : Limestone in power sector

- Limestone used at Flue Gas Desulfurization in power plant

- Data availability of limestone usage is applied to national inventory

(6) 08

Composed of 4 Modules

Sector Mineral

Process

Cement Production

(시멘트 생산)

Sodium carbonate

consumption (소다회 소비)

Limestone and Dolomite usage (석회석, 백운석 소비)

- for Pig iron and Power

Quick Lime Production

(생석회 생산)

Available

Data

Activity

Data

Cement sector Value

added

,Clinker Production data

Consumption of Sodium

carbonate according to

Glass Production

(Data : GDP forecast)

Production of pig iron

Intensity of bituminous

coal power, power

generation amount

Consumption of quick

lime In steel industry

(Data : GDP forecat)

Emission

Estimation

Intensity Approach

Define clinker

production per capita as

Time variable

Two-stage least squares

(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)

Intensity Approach

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)

(6) 09

Composed of 4 Modules

Sector Chemistry

Process

Ammonia Production Nitric Acid Production Adipic Acid Production Petrochemical product

Carbon Black Production

Ethylene EDC

(에틸렌 디클로라이드)

N2(g) + 3H2(g) ⇄

2NH3(g) + 92kJ

-

Available

Data

Activity

Data

Chemistry

value-added,

ammonia production

Oil fraction and

Nitric acid production

(CDM registed)

Oil fraction and

Adipic acid production

(CDM registed)

Oil fraction and

carbon black

production

Oil fraction and

ethylene

production

Oil fraction and EDC

production

Emission

Estimation

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)

Intensity

(Increasing rate)

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE,

MAE)

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE,

MAE)

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)

(6) 10

Composed of 4 Modules

Sector Metal Halocarbon production and consumption (’06)

Process

Steel and Ferro alloy

production

(Graphite electrode)

HCFC-22 production HFCs consumption Semiconductor Display

(LCD, PDP, OLED)

-

Refrigerant for air

condition

Available

Data

Activity

Data

Forecast production in

the steel-making,

Graphite electrode

usage

HCFC-22 production

Allowance

(Using CDM Project,

Government plan)

HFCs Consumption

Value added of

transportation

equipment

Mask layer trend and

Production rate.

Display production and

mask layer trend

Emission

Estimation Intensity Approach

•Government plan :

production cold phase(’30)

• Emission Phase -out

Least – squares

Approach

(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)

Intensity elasticity

(%intensity/%square)

Intensity Approach

- Weighted square *

weighted square

intensity

05

(6) 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

BaU in industrial process sector

Halocarbon

Metal

Chemistry

Mineral

Mt CO2