Georgetown Engler McCoy All Aff Harvard Round6

8/12/2019 Georgetown Engler McCoy All Aff Harvard Round6

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1AC



PLAN

The United States Federal Government should obtain, through alternativefinancing, electricit from small modular reactors for militar bases in the UnitedStates!



A"#

Contention one is the "o"$

"omestic "%" bases &ill be ta'en out b an inevitable blac'out$onl S()ssolve

)obitaille 1*(George, Department of Army Civilian, United States Army War College, “Small Modular Reactors !"e

Army#s Secure Source of $nergy%& ')*+)'*', Strategy Researc" ro-ect.

/n recent years, t"e U0S Department of Defense (DoD. "as identified a security issue at our installations related tot"e dependence on t"e civilian electrical grid0 !"e DoD depends on a steady source of electricity atmilitary facilities to perform t"e functions t"at secure our nation0 !"e flo1 of electricity into military facilitiesis controlled 2y a pu2lic grid system t"at is suscepti2le to 2eing compromised 2ecause of t"e age of t"einfrastructure, damage from natural disasters and t"e potential for cy2er attac3s0 Alt"oug" most ma-or functions

at military installations employ diesel po1ered generators as temporary 2ac3up, t"e pu2lic grid may not 2e availa2le toprovide electricity 1"en it is needed t"e most0 !"e United States electrical infrastructure system is prone tofailures and suscepti2le to terrorist attac3s0 ' /t is critical t"at t"e source of electricity for our installations is relia2le andsecure0 /n order to ensure t"at our military facilities possess a secure source of electricity, eit"er t"e pu2lic system of electric

generation and distri2ution is upgraded to increase its relia2ility as 1ell as reducing its suscepti2ility to cy2er attac3 or anot"ersource of electricity s"ould 2e pursued0 Alt"oug" significant investments are 2eing made to upgrade t"e electricgrid, t"e current investment levels are not 3eeping up 1it" t"e aging system0 Small modular reactors (SMRs. arenuclear reactors t"at are a2out an order of magnitude smaller t"an traditional commercial reactor used in t"e United States0 SMRsare capa2le of generating electricity and at t"e same time, t"ey are not a significant contri2utor to glo2al 1arming 2ecause of green"ouse gas emissions0 !"e DoD needs to loo3 at small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs. to determine if t"ey can provide a safe andsecure source of electricity0 $lectrical Grid Suscepti2ility to Disruptions According to a recent report 2y t"e Defense Science 4oard,t"e DoD gets ninet nine +ercent of t"eir electrical re5uirements from t"e civilian electricgrid 0 + !"eelectric grid, as it is currently configured and envisioned to operate for t"e foreseea2le future, may not 2e relia2le enoug"to ensure an uninterrupted flo1 of electricity for our critical military facilities given t"e influences of t"eaging infrastructure, its suscepti2ility to severe 1eat"er events, and t"e potential for cy2er attac3s0 !"e DoDdependency on t"e grid is reflected in t"e 670* 4illion spent on facilities energy in fiscal year '**, t"e latest year 1"ic" data 1asavaila2le0 7 !"e electricity used 2y military installations amounts to 6+089 2illion0 : As stated earlier, t"e DoD relies on t"ecommercial grid to provide a secure source of energy to support t"e operations t"at ensure t"e security of

our nation and it may not 2e availa2le 1"en 1e need it0 !"e system could 2e ta3en do1n for e;tendedperiods of time 2y failure of aging components, acts of nature, or intentionally 2y cy2er attac3s0 Aging

/nfrastructure0 !"e U0S electric po1er grid is made up of independently o1ned po1er plants and transmissionlines0 !"e political and environmental resistance to 2uilding ne1 electric generating po1er plantscom2ined 1it" t"e rise in consumption and aging infrastructure increases t"e potential for grid failure int"e future0 !"ere are components in t"e U0S0 electric grid that are over one hundred ears old and some of

t"e recent outages suc" as t"e '**9 <e1 =or3 2lac3out can 2e directly attri2uted to t"is out of date, aginginfrastructure0 9 Many of t"e components of t"is system are at or e;ceeding t"eir operational life and t"e

general trend of t"e utility companies is to not replace po1er lines and ot"er e5uipment until t"ey fail0 8 !"egovernment led deregulation of t"e electric utility industry t"at started in t"e mid >8*s "as contri2uted to a t"ree decade longdeterioration of t"e electric grid and an increased state of insta2ility0 Alt"oug" significant investments are 2eing made toupgrade t"e electric grid, t"e man ears of prior neglect 1ill re5uire a considera2le amount of time andfunding to 2ring t"e aging infrastructure up to date0 ?urt"ermore, t"e current investment levels to upgrade t"egrid are not 3eeping up 1it" t"e aging system0 @ /n addition, upgrades to t"e digital infrastructure 1"ic" 1ere

done to increase t"e systems efficiency and relia2ility, have actuall made the sstem moresusce+tible to cber attac's0 > 4ecause of t"e aging infrastructure and t"e impacts related to 1eat"er,t"e e;tent, as 1ell as fre5uency of failures is e+ected to increase in t"e future0 Adverse Weat"er0

According to a '**@ grid relia2ility report 2y t"e $dison $lectric /nstitute, si;ty seven per cent of all po1eroutages are related to 1eat"er0 Specifically, lig"tning contri2uted si; percent, 1"ile adverse 1eat"erprovided t"irty one percent and vegetation t"irty percent (1"ic" 1as predominantly attri2uted to 1ind 2lo1ingvegetation into contact 1it" utility lines. of t"e po1er outages0 * /n >>@ a falling tree lim2 damaged a transformer near t"e4onneville Dam in regon, causing a cascade of related 2lac3)outs across eig"t 1estern states0 /n August of '**+ t"e lig"ts1ent out in t"e 2iggest 2lac3out in <ort" America, plunging over fifty million people into dar3ness over eig"t states and t1oCanadian provinces0 Most areas did not "ave po1er restored four or five days0 /n addition, drin3ing 1ater "ad to 2e distri2uted 2y



t"e <ational Guard 1"en 1ater pumping stations andBor purification processes failed0 !"e estimated economic losses associated1it" t"is incident 1ere a2out five 2illion dollars0 ?urt"ermore, t"is incident also affected t"e operations of t1enty t1o nuclear plantsin t"e United States and Canada0 ' /n '**@, urricane /3e caused appro;imately seven and a "alf million customers to lose po1erin t"e United States from !e;as to <e1 =or30 + !"e electric grid suffered numerous po1er outages ever ear t"roug"out t"e United States and t"e num2er of outages is e;pected to increase as t"e infrastructure ages

1it"out sufficient upgrades and 1eat"er)related impacts continue to 2ecome more fre5uent0 Cy2er Attac3s0 !"ecivilian grid is made up of t"ree uni5ue electric net1or3s 1"ic" cover t"e $ast, West and !e;as 1it"

appro;imately one "undred eig"ty seven t"ousand miles of po1er lines0 !"ere are several 1ea3nesses in t"e electricaldistri2ution infrastructure system t"at could compromise t"e flo1 of electricity to military facilities0 !"e flo1of energy in t"e net1or3 lines as 1ell as t"e main distri2ution "u2s "as 2ecome totall de+endent oncomputers and internet)2ased communications0 Alt"oug" t"e digital infrastructure ma3es t"e grid more efficient, it

also ma3es it more suscepti2le to cy2er attac3s 0 Admiral Mr0 Dennis C0 4lair (ret0., t"e former Director of<ational /ntelligence, testified 2efore Congress t"at “t"e gro1ing connectivity 2et1een information systems,t"e /nternet, and ot"er infrastructures creates opportunities for attac3ers to disrupt telecommunications,electrical po1er, energy pipelines, refineries, financial net1or3s, and ot"er critical infrastructures07 & !"e

/ntelligence Community assesses t"at a num2er of nations already "ave t"e tec"nical capa2ility to conduct suc"attac3s0 : /n t"e '**> report, Annual !"reat Assessment of t"e /ntelligence Community for t"e Senate Armed Services

Committee, Adm0 4lair stated t"at “!"reats to cy2erspace pose one of t"e most serious economic and national

security c"allenges of t"e 'st Century for t"e United States and our allies0&9 /n addition, t"e report "ig"lig"ts agro1ing array of state and non)state actors t"at are targeting t"e U0S0 critical infrastructure for t"e purpose of

creating c"aos t"at 1ill su2se5uently produce detrimental effects on citiens, commerce, and governmentoperations0 !"ese actors "ave t"e a2ility to compromise, steal, c"ange, or completely destroy information t"roug" t"eir detrimental activities on t"e internet0 8 /n Eanuary '**@, US Central /ntelligence Agency senior analyst !om Dona"uetold a gat"ering of t"ree "undred international security managers from electric, 1ater, oil F gas, and ot"er critical industry, t"at data1as availa2le from multiple regions outside t"e United States, 1"ic" documents cy2er intrusions intoutilities0 /n at least one case (outside t"e U0S0., t"e disruption caused a po1er outage affecting multiple cities0 Mr0 Dona"ue did notspecify 1"o e;ecuted t"ese attac3s or 1"y, 2ut did state t"at all t"e intrusions 1ere conducted via t"e /nternet0 @ During t"e pastt1enty years, advances in computer tec"nologies "ave permeated and advanced all aspects of our lives0 Alt"oug" t"e digitalinfrastructure is 2eing increasingly merged 1it" t"e po1er grid to ma3e it more efficient and relia2le, it also ma3es itmore vulnera2le to cy2er attac30 /n cto2er '**9, a foreign "ac3er invaded t"e arris2urg, A0, 1aterfiltration system and planted mal1are0 > /n Eune '**@, t"e atc" nuclear po1er plant in Georgia s"ut do1nfor t1o days after an engineer loaded a soft1are update for a 2usiness net1or3 t"at also re2ooted t"e plantspo1er control system0 /n April '**>, !"e Wall Street Eournal reported t"at cy2er spies "ad infiltrated t"e U0S0electric grid and left 2e"ind soft1are t"at could 2e used to disrupt t"e system0 The "ac3ers came from

C"ina, Russia and ot"er nations and 1ere on a “fis"ing e;pedition& to map out t"e system0 '* According tot"e secretary of omeland Security, Eanet <apolitano at an event on '@ cto2er '*, cy2erHattac3s "ave come close tocompromising t"e country#s critical infrastructure on multiple occasions0 ' ?urt"ermore, during ?=, t"e UnitedStates Computer $mergency Readiness !eam too3 action on more t"an one "undred t"ousand incident reports 2y releasing moret"an five t"ousand actiona2le cy2er security alerts and information products0 '' !"e interdependence of modern infrastructures anddigital 2ased systems ma3es any cy2er attac3s on t"e U0S0 electric grid potentially significant0 !"e Decem2er '**@ report 2y t"eCommission on Cy2er Security for t"e forty fourt" residency states t"e c"allenge plainly “America#s failure to protect cy2erspaceis one of t"e most urgent national security pro2lems facing t"e ne1 administration&0 '+ !"e suscepti2ility of t"e grid to 2eingcompromised "as resulted in a significant amount of resources 2eing allocated to ensuring t"e systems security0 Alt"oug" asu2stantial amount of resources are dedicated to protecting t"e nation#s infrastructure, it may not 2eenoug" to ensure t"e continuous flo1 of electricity to our critical military facilities0 SMRs as t"ey are currently

envisioned may 2e a2le to provide a secure and independent alternative source of electricity in t"e eventt"at t"e pu2lic grid is compromised0 SMRs may also provide additional DoD 2enefit 2y supporting t"e recent

government initiatives related to energy consumption and 2y circumventing t"e adverse ramifications associated

1it" 2uilding coal or natural gas fired po1er plants on t"e environment0

Those communication brea'do&ns go nuclear and decimate militar o+erationsAndres 11Ric"ard Andres, rofessor of <ational Security Strategy at t"e <ational War College and a Senior ?ello1 and $nergy and$nvironmental Security and olicy C"air in t"e Center for Strategic Researc", /nstitute for <ational Strategic Studies, at t"e <ationalDefense University, and anna 4reet, doctoral candidate in t"e Department of olitical Science at !"e Massac"usetts /nstitute of!ec"nology, Small <uclear Reactorsfor Military /nstallationsCapa2ilities, Costs, and!ec"nological /mplications,1110ndu0eduBpressBli2BpdfBStr?orumBS?)'9'0pdf

http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/StrForum/SF-262.pdf




!"e DD interest in small reactors derives largely from pro2lems 1it" 2ase and logistics vulnera2ility0 ver t"e last fe1 years, t"eServices "ave 2egun to ree;amine virtually every aspect of "o1 t"ey generate and use energy 1it" an eye to1ard cutting costs,decreasing car2on emissions, and reducing energy)related vulnera2ilities0 !"ese actions "ave resulted in programs t"at "avesignificantly reduced DD energy consumption and green"ouse gas emissions at domestic 2ases0 Despite strong efforts, "o1ever,t1o critical security issues "ave t"us far proven resistant to e;isting solutions 2ases# vulnera2ility to civilianpo1er outages, and t"e need to transport large 5uantities of fuel via convoys t"roug" "ostile territory to for1ard

locations0 $ac" of t"ese is e;plored 2elo10 Grid Iulnera2ility0 DD is una2le to provide its 2ases 1it" electricity 1"en

t"e civilian electrical grid is offline for an e;tended period of time0 Currently, domestic military installationsreceive >> percent of t"eir electricity from t"e civilian po1er grid0 As e;plained in a recent study from t"e Defense

Science 4oard DD#s 3ey pro2lem 1it" electricity is t"at critical missions, such as national strategic a1arenessand national command aut"orities, are almost entirel de+endent on the national transmission grid 0 0 0

J1"ic"K is fragile, vulnera2le, near its capacity limit, and outside of DD control0 /n most cases, neit"er t"egrid nor on)2ase 2ac3up po1er provides sufficient relia2ility to ensure continuity of critical national priorityfunctions and oversig"t of strategic missions in t"e face of a long term (several mont"s. outage08 !"egrid#s fragility 1as demonstrated during t"e '**+ <ort"east 2lac3out in 1"ic" :* million people in t"e United Statesand Canada lost po1er, some for up to a 1ee3, 1"en one "io utility failed to properly trim trees0 !"e 2lac3out created cascadingdisruptions in se1age systems, gas station pumping, cellular communications, 2order c"ec3 systems, and so fort", anddemonstrated t"e interdependence of modern infrastructural systems0@ More recently, a1areness "as 2een gro1ing t"at t"e gridis also vulnera2le to purposive attac3s0 A report sponsored 2y t"e Department of omeland Security suggests t"at acoordinated cy2erattac3 on t"e grid could result in a t"ird of t"e country losing po1er for a period of 1ee3s or mont"s0>Cy2erattac3s on critical infrastructure are not 1ell understood0 /t is not clear, for instance, 1"et"er e;isting terrorist groups

mig"t 2e a2le to develop t"e capa2ility to conduct t"is type of attac30 /t is li3ely, "o1ever, t"at some nation)states eit"er "ave or are 1or3ing on developing t"e a2ility to ta3e do1n t"e U0S0 grid0 /n t"e event of a 1ar 1it"

one of t"ese states, it is possi2le, if not li3ely, t"at parts of t"e civilian grid 1ould cease to function, ta3ing 1it"t"em military 2ases located in affected regions0 Government and private organiations are currently 1or3ing tosecure t"e grid against attac3sL "o1ever, it is not clear t"at t"ey 1ill 2e successful0 Most military 2ases currently"ave 2ac3up po1er t"at allo1s t"em to function for a period of "ours or, at most, a fe1 days on t"eir o1n0 /f po1er 1ere notrestored after t"is amount of time, t"e results could 2e disastrous0 ?irst, military assets ta3en offline 2y t"e crisis 1ouldnot 2e availa2le to "elp 1it" disaster relief 0 Second, during an etended blac'out, glo2al militaryoperations could 2e seriously compromised L t"is disruption 1ould 2e particularly serious if t"e 2lac3out1as induced during ma-or com2at operations0 During t"e Cold War, t"is type of event 1as far less li3ely 2ecause t"e

United States and Soviet Union s"ared t"e common understanding t"at blinding an o++onent &ith a grid blac'outcould escalate to nuclear 1ar 0 America#s current o++onents , "o1ever, ma not s"are t"is fear or 2edeterred 2y t"is possi2ility0 /n '**@, t"e Defense Science 4oard stressed t"at DD s"ould mitigate t"e electricalgrid#s vulnera2ilities 2y turning military installations into “islands & of energy self)sufficiency0 !"e department"as made efforts to do so 2y promoting efficiency programs t"at lo1er po1er consumption on 2ases and 2y

constructing rene1a2le po1er generation facilities on selected 2ases0 Unfortunatel, these programs 1ill not come close to reac"ing t"e goal of island ing t"e vast ma-ority of 2ases0 $ven 1it" massive investment inefficiency and rene1a2les, most 2ases 1ould not 2e a2le to function for more t"an a fe1 days after t"e

civilian grid 1ent offline Unli3e ot"er alternative sources of energy, small reactors have the +otential tosolve "%"-s vulnerabilit to grid outages0 Most 2ases "ave relatively lig"t po1er demands 1"en compared to civilian

to1ns or cities0 Sm all reactor s could easily support 2ases# po1er demands separate from t"e civilian gridduring crises0 /n some cases, t"e reactors could 2e designed to produce enoug" po1er not only to supply t"e2ase, 2ut also to provide critical services in surrounding to1ns during long)term outages0 Strategically,

islanding 2ases 1it" small reactors "as anot"er 2enefit0 ne of t"e main reasons an enemy mig"t 2e 1illing to ris3reprisals 2y ta3ing do1n t"e U0S0 grid during a period of military "ostilities 1ould 2e to affect ongoingmilitary operations0 Wit"out t"e lifeline of intelligence, communication, and logistics provided 2y U0S0 domestic2ases, American military operations 1ould 2e compromised in almost any conceiva2le contingency0

Ma3ing 2ases more resilient to civilian po1er outages 1ould reduce t"e incentive for an opponent toattac3 t"e grid0 An opponent mig"t still attempt to ta3e do1n t"e grid for t"e sa3e of disrupting civilian systems, 2ut t"epo1erful incentive to do so in order to 1in an ongoing 2attle or 1ar 1ould 2e greatly reduced0

.ffective militar o+erations solve nuclear &ar!/agan and %-0anlon ?rederic3 agan and Mic"ael #anlon, ?red#s a resident sc"olar at A$/, Mic"ael is a senior fello1 in foreign policy at 4roo3ings,“!"e Case for Narger Ground ?orces&, April '7, '**8, "ttpBB1110aei0orgBfilesB'**8B*7B'7B'**8*7'7Oagan'**8*7'70pdf

http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf

http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf



We live at a time 1"en 1ars not only rage in nearly every region 2ut threaten to eru+t in many places 1"eret"e current relative calm is tenuous0 !o vie1 t"is as a strategic military c"allenge for t"e United States is notto espouse a specific t"eory of America#s role in t"e 1orld or a certain political p"ilosop"y0 Suc" anassessment flo1s directly from t"e 2asic 2ipartisan vie1 of American foreign policy ma3ers since World War // t"at overseas t"reatsmust 2e countered 2efore t"ey can directly t"reaten t"is country#s s"ores, t"at t"e 2asic sta2ility of t"e international system isessential to American peace and prosperity, and t"at no countr besides the U nited S tates is in a position to leadt"e 1ay in countering ma-or c"allenges to t"e glo2al order0 Net us "ig"lig"t t"e t"reats and t"eir

conse5uences 1it" a fe1 concrete e;amples, emp"asiing t"ose t"at involve 3ey strategic regions of t"e 1orld suc"as t"e ersian Gulf and $ast Asia , or 3ey potential t"reats to American security, suc" as t"e spread of nuclear 1eapons

and t"e strengt"ening of t"e glo2al Al Paeda B-i"adist movement0 !"e /ranian government "as re-ected aseries of international demands to "alt its efforts at enric"ing uranium and su2mit to internationalinspections0 W"at 1ill "appen if t"e USQor /sraeliQgovernment 2ecomes convinced t"at !e"ran is ont"e verge of fielding a nuclear 1eapon% <ort" orea , of course, "as already done so, and t"e rippleeffects are 2eginning to spread0 Eapan#s recent election to supreme po1er of a leader 1"o "as promised to

re1rite t"at country#s constitution to support increased armed forcesQand, possi2ly, even nuclear 1eaponsQ may

1ell alter t"e delicate 2alance of fear in <ort"east Asia fundamentally and rapidly0 Also, in t"e 2ac3ground, at

least for no1, Sino!ai1anese tensions continue to flare, as do tensions 2et1een /ndia and a3istan ,a3istan and Afg"anistan, Ieneuela and t"e United States, and so on0 Mean1"ile, t"e 1orld#s noninterventionin Darfur trou2les consciences from $urope to America#s 4i2le 4elt to its 2astions of li2eralism, yet 1it" no serious international

forces on offer, t"e 2loodletting 1ill pro2a2ly, tragically, continue una2ated0 And as 2ad as t"ings are in /ra5 today, t"ey

could get 1orse0 W"at 1ould "appen if t"e 3ey S"iite figure, Ali al Sistani, 1ere to die% /f anot"er ma-or attac3 on t"e scale of t"eGolden Mos5ue 2om2ing "it eit"er side (or, per"aps, 2ot" sides at t"e same time.% Suc" deterioration mig"t convince many Americans t"at t"e 1ar t"ere truly 1as lostQ2ut t"e costs of reac"ing suc" a conclusion 1ould 2e enormous0 Afg"anistan issome1"at more sta2le for t"e moment, alt"oug" a ma-or !ali2an offensive appears to 2e in t"e offing0 Sound US grand strategymust proceed from t"e recognition t"at, over t"e ne;t fe1 years and decades, t"e 1orld is going to 2e a veryunsettled and 5uite dangerous place, 1it" Al Paeda and its associated groups as a su2set of a muc" larger set of 1orries0

!"e only serious response to t"is international environment is to develop armed forces capa2le ofprotecting America#s vital interests t"roug"out t"is dangerous time0 "oing so re2uires a militarca+able of a &ide range of missionsQ including not onl deterrence of great +o&er conflict indealing &ith +otential hots+ots in /orea, the Tai&an Strait, and the Persian Gulf but alsoassociated &ith a variet of S+ecial Forces activities and stabili3ation o+erations0 ?or today#s USmilitary, 1"ic" already e;cels at "ig" tec"nology and is increasingly focused on re)learning t"e lost art of counterinsurgency, t"is isfirst and foremost a 5uestion of finding t"e resources to field a large)enoug" standing Army and Marine Corps to "andle personnelintensive missions suc" as t"e ones no1 under 1ay in /ra5 and Afg"anistan0

And it colla+ses hegemonCNA 4Center for <aval Analyses Military Adviser 4oard, C"aired 2y General C"arles Wald, USA? (Ret0. ?ormer Deputy Commander,ead5uarters U0S0 $uropean Command (US$UCM., May '**>, o1ering America#s Defense $nergy and t"e Ris3s to <ationalSecurity, "ttpsBB1110cna0orgBsitesBdefaultBfilesBo1ering'*Americas'*Defense0pdf

ur vulnerabilities from energ use are not limited to 2attlefields and for1ard operating 2asesL t"ey also eist athome ! The biggest im+acts may 2e local, 2ut can etend to locations and o+erations around the &orld !/n August '**+, :* million people living in t"e <ort"east, Mid1est, and ntario 1ere suddenly left in t"e dar3 1"en t"eir electricpo1er failed0 More t"an :** generating units at '9: po1er plants s"ut do1nQa 5uiet collapse cascading across t"e landscape0Most "omes and 2usinesses regained po1er 1it"in a day (t"oug" some plants too3 t1o 1ee3s to regain full capacity., a 5uic3restoration t"at 1as possi2le primarily 2ecause no significant e5uipment 1as damaged0 Still, critical national security systems failed0U0S0 2order c"ec3 systems 1ere not fully operational, causing a severe 2ac3up of truc3 traffic on our nort"ern 2oundary0 !"ere 1ererelated effects from t"e outage as 1ell0 Water and se1age plants s"ut do1n0 Gas stations stopped 1or3ing, and rail service 1ascurtailed0 Many cellular p"one providers, radio stations, and television stations lost serviceQt"eir 2ac3up po1er systems 1ere

insufficient0 !"e 2lac3out is estimated to "ave caused economic losses of 68 to 6* 2illion J::K0 !"e trigger for t"is massive 2lac3out1as tragically simple An "io utility "ad failed to properly trim trees near a po1er line0 American utilities "ave e;perienceresponding to interruptions caused 2y e;treme 1eat"er0 $ven after severe ice storms and "urricanes, po1er is most often restored1it"in a fe1 days0 4ut t"e effects of a long)term po1er outage are un3no1n0 ur a2ility to recover from adedicated attac3 is also not 3no1nQe;cept to say t"at a deli2erate attac3 1ould re5uire a different response0 !"ere "ave2een numerous attac3s on t"e operating systems of ma-or critical infrastructure facilities, including po1ergrids, around t"e 1orld in recent years /n one instance outside t"e U0S0, a po1er outage 1as triggered t"at affected multiple citiesLin ot"er instances, "ac3ers "ave e;torted "undreds of millions of dollars out of t"eir victims J:8, :@K0 ?oreign cy2er spies are also aserious concern U0S0 omeland Security and /ntelligence officials revealed t"at C"inese and Russian spies "ave “penetrated t"eU0S0 electrical grid& and left 2e"ind dormant 2ut malicious soft1are J:>K0 /n '**8, t"e discovery of 1"at is no1 3no1n as t"e“Aurora t"reat& revealed t"e possi2ility t"at sop"isticated "ac3ers could seriously dam age t"e grid 2y destroying mec"anisms



do1nstream from t"e initial point of attac30 Aurora involves opening and 5uic3ly closing a "ig" voltage circuit 2rea3er, 1"ic" canresult in an out)of)sync"ronism condition t"at can p"ysically damage rotating e5uipment connected to t"e po1er grid J9*)9+K0 Atmilitary installations across t"e country, a myriad ofcritical sstems must be o+erational *5 hours ada , +9: days a year0 !"ey receive and analye data to 3eep us safe from t"reats, t"ey provide directionand support to com2at troops, and stay ready to provide relief and recovery services 1"en naturaldisasters stri3e or 1"en someone attempts to attac3 our "omeland0 !"ese installations are almost

completely dependent on commercial electrical po1er delivered t"roug" t"e national electrical grid0 W"en t"e

DS4 studied t"e '**+ 2lac3out and t"e condition of t"e grid, t"ey concluded it is “fragile and vulnera2le000 placing criticalmilitary and "omeland defense missions at unaccepta2le ris3 of e;tended outage&0 As t"e resiliency of t"e gridcontinues to decline, it increases t"e potential for an e;panded andB or longer duration outage from natural events as 1ell asdeli2erate attac30 !"e DS4 noted t"at t"e military#s 2ac3up po1er is inade5uately sied for its missions and military 2ases cannoteasily store sufficient fuel supplies to cope 1it" a lengt"y or 1idespread outage0 An e;tended outage could 6eo+ardi3eongoing missions in far7flung battle s+aces for a variety of reasons !"e American military#s logisticsc"ains operate a -ust)in)time delivery system familiar to many glo2al 2usinesses0 /f an aircraft 2rea3s do1n in/ra5, parts may 2e immediately s"ipped from a supply depot in t"e U0S0 /f t"e depot loses po1er, personnel t"ere may not fill t"eorder for days, increasing t"e ris3 to t"e troops in "arm#s 1ay0 Data collected in com2at ones are often analyed atdata centers in t"e U0S0 /n many cases, t"e information "elps 2attlefield commanders plan t"eir ne;t moves0 /ft"e data centers lose po1er, t"e ne;t military move can 2e delayed, or ta3en 1it"out essential information0 !"e

loss of electrical po1er affects refineries, ports, repair depots, and ot"er commercial or military centers t"at "elp assure t"e readiness of American armed forces0 W"en po1er is lost for lengt"y periods, vulnera2ility toattac3 increases0 resident 2ama, Congress, and ma-or utilities, among ot"ers, are discussing an upgrade of t"e national

electrical grid for a variety of reasons0 We add our voice to t"is discussion 1it" a singular perspective 1e see t"at our nationalsecurit is directl lin'ed to the securit and reliabilit of our sstem of energ +roduction anddeliver!

Great +o&er &ar 8hang 11 (=u"an T"ang is a researc"er at t"e Carnegie $ndo1ment for /nternational eace, Was"ington, D0C0L Nin S"i is from Colum2iaUniversity0 S"e also serves as an independent consultant for t"e $urasia Group and a consultant for t"e World 4an3 in Was"ington,D0C0, B'', America#s decline A "ar2inger of conflict and rivalry, "ttpBB1110eastasiaforum0orgB'*B*B''Bamericas)decline)a)"ar2inger)of)conflict)and)rivalryB.

!"is does not necessarily mean t"at t"e US is in systemic decline, 2ut it encompasses a trend t"at appears to 2e negative andper"aps alarming0 Alt"oug" t"e US still possesses incompara2le military pro1ess and its economy remains t"e1orld#s largest, t"e once seemingly indomita2le c"asm t"at separated America from anyone else isnarro1ing0 !"us, t"e glo2al distri2ution of po1er is s"ifting, and t"e inevita2le result 1ill 2e a 1orld t"at is less peaceful, li2eraland prosperous, 2urdened 2y a deart" of effective conflict regulation0 ver t"e past t1o decades, no ot"er state "as "ad t"e a2ilityto seriously c"allenge t"e US military0 Under t"ese circumstances, motivated 2y 2ot" opportunity and fear, many actors "ave2and1agon ed 1it" US "egemony and accepted a su2ordinate role0 Canada, most of Western $urope,/ndia, Eapan, Sout" orea, Australia, Singapore and t"e "ilippines "ave all -oined t"e US, creating astatus 5uo t"at "as tended to mute great +o&er conflicts0 o1ever, as t"e "egemony t"at dre1 t"ese po1erstoget"er 1it"ers, so 1ill t"e pulling po1er 2e"ind t"e US alliance0 !"e result 1ill 2e an international order 1"ere po1er is morediffuse, American interests and influence can 2e more readily c"allenged, and conflicts or 1ars may 2e "arder to avoid0 Ashistor attests, +o&er decline and redistribution result in militar confrontation0 ?or e;ample, in t"e late >t" century America#s emergence as a regional po1er sa1 it launc" its first overseas 1ar ofcon5uest to1ards Spain0 4y t"e turn of t"e '*t" century, accompanying t"e increase in US po1er and1aning of 4ritis" po1er, t"e American <avy "ad 2egun to c"allenge t"e notion t"at 4ritain rules t"e1aves0# Suc" a notion 1ould eventually see t"e US attain t"e status of sole guardians of t"e Western emisp"ere#s security to2ecome t"e order)creating Neviat"an s"aping t"e international system 1it" democracy and rule of la10 Defining t"is US)centred

system are t"ree 3ey c"aracteristics enforcement of property rig"ts, constraints on t"e actions of po1erful individuals and groupsand some degree of e5ual opportunities for 2road segments of society0 As a result of suc" political sta2ility, freemar3ets , li2eral trade and fle;i2le financial mec"anisms "ave appeared 0 And, 1it" t"is, many countries"ave soug"t opportunities to enter t"is system, proliferating sta2le and cooperative relations0 o1ever, 1"at1ill "appen to t"ese advances as America#s influence declines% Given t"at America#s aut"ority, alt"oug"sullied at times, "as 2enefited people across muc" of Natin America, Central and $astern $urope, t"e4al3ans, as 1ell as parts of Africa and, 5uite e;tensively, Asia, t"e ans1er to t"is 5uestion could affectglo2al society in a profoundly detrimental 1ay0 u2lic imagination and academia "ave anticipated t"at a post)"egemonic 1orld 1ould return to t"e pro2lems of t"e >+*s regional 2locs, trade conflicts and strategic



rivalry0 ?urt"ermore, multilateral institutions suc" as t"e /M?, t"e World 4an3 or t"e W! mig"t give 1ay toregional organisations0 ?or e;ample, $urope and $ast Asia 1ould eac" step for1ard to fill t"e vacuum left 2y Was"ington#s

1it"ering leaders"ip to pursue t"eir o1n visions of regional political and economic orders0 ?ree mar3ets 1ould 2ecomemore politicised Q and, 1ell, less free Q and ma-or po1ers 1ould compete for supremacy0 Additionally,suc" po1er plays "ave "istorically possessed a ero)sum element0 /n t"e late >9*s and >8*s, US economicpo1er declined relative to t"e rise of t"e Eapanese and Western $uropean economies, 1it" t"e US dollar also 2ecoming lessattractive0 And, as American po1er eroded, so did international regimes (suc" as t"e 4retton WoodsSystem in >8+.0 A &orld &ithout American hegemon is one &here great +o&er &ars re7emerge,t"e li2eral international system is supplanted 2y an aut"oritarian one, and trade protectionism devolvesinto restrictive, anti)glo2alisation 2arriers0 !"is, at least, is one possi2ility 1e can forecast in a future t"at1ill inevita2ly 2e devoid of unrivalled US primacy0

0egemon is sustainable and there are no challengers$colla+se of militarinfrastructure is the onl internal lin' to +rimac declining

8en'o and Cohen 1*

(Mica" Ten3o, ?ello1 in t"e Center for reventive Action at t"e Council on ?oreign Relations, and M/c"ael Co"en, Senior ?ello1 att"e American Security ro-ect, serves on t"e 2oard of t"e <ational Security <et1or3 and "as taug"t at Colum2ia University#s Sc"oolof /nternational and u2lic Affairs, served in t"e U0S0 Department of State, former Senior Iice resident at t"e strategiccommunications firm of Ro2inson, Nerer and Montgomery, 2ac"elor#s degree in international relations from American University anda master#s degree from Colum2ia University, +B7B'*', VClear and resent SafetyV, yaleglo2al0yale0eduBcontentBclear)and)present)safety.

Wit"in t"e foreign policy elite, t"ere e;ists a pervasive 2elief t"at t"e postHCold War 1orld is atreac"erous place, full of great uncertainty and grave ris3s0 A '**> survey conducted 2y t"e e1 Researc" Center for t"e eople and t"e ress foundt"at 9> percent of mem2ers of t"e Council on ?oreign Relations 2elieved t"at for t"e United States at t"at moment, t"e 1orld 1as eit"er as dangerous as or more dangerous t"an it 1as during t"e Cold War0Similarly, in '**@, t"e Center for American rogress surveyed more t"an ** foreign policy e;perts and found t"at 8* percent of t"em 2elieved t"at t"e 1orld 1as 2ecoming more dangerous0 er"aps more t"an

any ot"er idea, t"is 2elief s"apes de2ates on U0S0 foreign policy and frames t"e pu2lic#s understanding ofinternational affairs0 !"ere is -ust one pro2lem! 9t is sim+l &rong 0 !"e 1orld t"at t"e United Statesin"a2its today is a remar'abl safe and secure +lace0 /t is a 1orld 1it" fe1er violent conflicts andgreater political freedom t"an at virtually any ot"er point in "uman "istory0 All over t"e 1orld, people en-oy longer life e;pectancy and

greater economic opportunity t"an ever 2efore0 !"e U nited S tates faces no plausi2le e;istential t"reats, no great)po1er rival, andno near7term com+etition for the role of global hegemon 0 !"e U0S0 military is t"e 1orld#s mostpo1erful , and even in t"e middle of a sustained do1nturn, t"e U0S0 economy remains among one of t"e1orld#s most vi2rant and adaptive0 Alt"oug" t"e United States faces a "ost of international c"allenges, t"ey +ose little ris' to t"eover1"elming ma-ority of American citiens and can 2e managed 1it" e;isting diplomatic, economic, and,

to a muc" lesser e;tent, military tools0 !"is reality is 2arely reflected in U0S0 national security strategy or in American foreign policy de2ates0 resident 4arac3 2ama#s most recent <ational Security Strategy aspires to “a 1orld in 1"ic" America is stronger, more secure, and is a2le to overcome our c"allenges 1"ile

appealing to t"e aspirations of people around t"e 1orld0& =et t"at is 2asically t"e 1orld t"at e;ists today0 The U nited S tates is the &orld-s most +o&erfulnation, unchallenged and secure0 4ut t"e country#s political and policy elite seems un1illing torecognie t"is fact, muc" less integrate it into foreign policy and national security decision)ma3ing0

Policma'ers &ill inevitabl strive for hegemon!Tac" "orfman 1*, assistant editor of $t"ics and /nternational Affairs, t"e -ournal of t"e CarnegieCouncil, and co)editor of t"e Montreal Revie1, “W"at We !al3 A2out W"en We !al3 A2out /solationism&,May @, "ttpBBdissentmagaine0orgBonline0p"p%id9*:

!"e rise of C"ina not1it"standing, t"e United States remains t"e 1orld#s sole superpo1er 0 /ts military (and, to aconsidera2le e;tent, political. "egemony e;tends not -ust over <ort" America or even t"e Western "emisp"ere, 2ut also $urope,

large s1at"s of Asia, and Africa0 /ts interests are glo2alL not"ing is outside its potential sp"ere of influence0!"ere are an estimated 99* to >** American military 2ases in roug"ly forty countries 1orld1ide, alt"oug" figures on

t"e matter are notoriously difficult to ascertain, largely 2ecause of su2terfuge on t"e part of t"e military0 According to officialdata t"ere are active )duty U0S0 military personnel in 7@ countries, or over 8: percent of t"e 1orld#s states0 !"eUnited States c"ec3s Russian po1er in $urope and C"inese po1er in Sout" orea and Eapan and /ranianpo1er in /ra5, Afg"anistan, and !ur3ey0 /n order to maintain a frigid peace 2et1een /srael and $gypt, t"e Americangovernment "ands t"e former 6'08 2illion in military aid every year, and t"e latter 60+ 2illion0 /t also gives a3istan more t"an 67**million dollars in military aid annually (not including counterinsurgency operations, 1"ic" 1ould drive t"e total far "ig"er., Eordanroug"ly 6'** million, and Colom2ia over 6:: million0 U0S0 long)term military commitments are also manifold0 /t is one of t"e fivepermanent mem2ers of t"e U< Security Council, t"e only institution legally permitted to sanction t"e use of force to com2at “t"reatsto international peace and security0& /n >7> t"e United States "elped found <A!, t"e first peacetime military alliance e;tending

http://dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=605

http://dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=605



2eyond <ort" and Sout" America in U0S0 "istory, 1"ic" no1 "as t1enty)eig"t mem2er states0 !"e United States also "as a trilateraldefense treaty 1it" Australia and <e1 Tealand, and 2ilateral mutual defense treaties 1it" Eapan, !ai1an, t"e "ilippines, and Sout"orea0 /t is t"is sort of reac" t"at led Madeleine Al2rig"t to call t"e United States t"e sole “indispensi2le po1er& on t"e 1orld stage0!"e idea t"at glo2al military dominance and political "egemony is in t"e U0S0 national interestQand t"e

1orld#s interestQis generally ta3en for granted domestically0 pposition to it is limited to t"e li2ertarian Rig"t and

anti)imperialist Neft, 2ot" groups on t"e margins of mainstream political discourse0 !oday, American supremacyis assumed rat"er t"an argued for in an age of tremendous political division, it is a bi+artisan first +rinci+le of

foreign +olic, a +resu++osition0 /n t"is area at least, one 1is"es for a little less agreement0 /n romise and eril America at t"e Da1n of a Glo2al Age, C"ristop"er Mcnig"t <ic"ols provides an erudite account of a period 2efore suc" aconsensus e;isted, 1"en ideas a2out America#s role on t"e 1orld stage 1ere fundamentally contested0 As t"is year#spresidential election approac"es, eac" side 1ill portray t"e difference 2et1een t"e candidates# positionson foreign policy as immense0 Revisiting romise and eril s"o1s us -ust "o1 narro1 t"e American 1orldvie1"as 2ecome, and "o1 our pu2lic discourse "as 2ecome narro1er still0 <ic"ols focuses on t"e years 2et1een @>*and >7*, during America#s initial ascent as a glo2al po1er0 e gives special attention to t"e formative de2ates surrounding t"eSpanis")American War, U0S0 entry into t"e ?irst World War, and potential U0S0 mem2ers"ip in t"e Neague of <ationsQde2ates t"at1ere constitutive of larger 2attles over t"e nature of American society and its fragile political institutions and freedoms0 During t"isperiod, foreign and domestic policy 1ere often lin3ed as part of a co"esive political vision for t"e country0 <ic"ols illustrates t"ist"roug" intellectual profiles of some of t"e period#s most influential figures, including senators enry Ca2ot Nodge and William4ora", socialist leader $ugene De2s, p"ilosop"er and psyc"ologist William Eames, -ournalist Randolp" 4ourne, and t"e peaceactivist $mily 4alc"0 $ac" of t"em interpreted isolationism and internationalism in distinct 1ays, sometimes deploying t"e conceptsmore for r"etorical purposes t"an as cornerstones of a particular 1orldvie10 !oday, isolationism is often portrayed asintellectually 2an3rupt , a redou2t for idealists, nationalists, ;enop"o2es, and fools0 =et t"e term no1 used as a

political epit"et "as deep roots in American political culture0 /solationist principles can 2e traced 2ac3 to George Was"ington#sfare1ell address, during 1"ic" "e urged "is countrymen to steer clear of “foreign entanglements& 1"ile actively see3ing non2indingcommercial ties0 (W"et"er economic commitments do in fact entail political commitments is anot"er matter0. !"omas Eeffersonec"oed t"is sentiment 1"en "e urged for “commerce 1it" all nations, JandK alliance 1it" none0& $ven t"e Monroe Doctrine, in 1"ic"t"e United States declared itself t"e regional "egemon and demanded noninterference from $uropean states in t"e Western"emisp"ere, 1as often vie1ed as a means of isolating t"e United States from $urope and its messy alliance system0 /n <ic"ols#stelling, "o1ever, modern isolationism 1as 2orn from t"e de2ates surrounding t"e Spanis")American War and t"e U0S0 anne;ation oft"e "ilippines0 ere isolationism 2egan to ta3e on a muc" more e;plicitly anti)imperialist 2ent0 rogressive isolationists suc" asWilliam Eames found U0S0 policy in t"e "ilippinesQ1"ic" it "ad “li2erated& from Spanis" rule -ust to fig"t a 2loodycounterinsurgency against "ilippine nationalistsQanat"ema to American democratic traditions and ideas a2out national self)determination0 As romise and eril s"o1s, "o1ever, “cosmopolitan isolationists& li3e Eames never called for “cultural, economic, orcomplete political separation from t"e rest of t"e 1orld0& Rat"er, t"ey 1anted t"e United States to engage 1it" ot"er nationspeacefully and 1it"out pretensions of domination0 !"ey sa1 t"e United States as a potential force for good in t"e 1orld, 2ut t"eyalso placed great value on neutrality and non)entanglement, and 1anted America to focus on creating a more -ust domestic order0Eames#s anti)imperialism 1as directly related to "is fear of t"e effects of “2igness0& e argued forcefully against all concentrations ofpo1er, especially t"ose 2et1een 2usiness, political, and military interests0 e 3ne1 t"at suc" vested interests 1ould gro1 larger andmore difficult to control if America 2ecame an overseas empire0 t"ers, suc" as “isolationist imperialist& enry Ca2ot Nodge, t"e

po1erful senator from Massac"usetts, argued t"at fig"ting t"e Spanis")American War and anne;ing t"e "ilippines 1ere isolationistactions to t"eir core0 ?irst, 2anis"ing t"e Spanis" from t"e Cari22ean comported 1it" t"e Monroe DoctrineL second, adding coloniessuc" as t"e "ilippines 1ould lead to greater economic gro1t" 1it"out e;posing t"e United States to t"e vicissitudes of outsidetrade0 rior to t"e Spanis")American War, many feared t"at t"e American economy#s rapid gro1t" 1ould lead to a surplus ofdomestic goods and cause an economic disaster0 <e1 mar3ets needed to 2e opened, and t"e 2est 1ay to do so 1as to dominate agiven mar3etQt"at is, a countryQpolitically0 Nodge#s defense of t"is “large policy& 1as pu2lic and, 2y today#s standards, 5uite 2ald0t"er proponents of t"is policy included !eddy Roosevelt (1"o also 2elieved t"at 1ar 1as good for t"e national c"aracter. and asignificant portion of t"e 2usiness class0 ?or Nodge and Roosevelt, “isolationism& meant 1"at is commonly referred to today as“unilateralism& t"e a2ility for t"e United States to do 1"at it 1ants, 1"en it 1ants0 t"er “isolationists& espoused principles t"at 1e1ould today call internationalist0 Randolp" 4ourne, a precocious -ournalist 1or3ing for t"e <e1 Repu2lic, passionately opposed

American entry into t"e ?irst World War, muc" to t"e detriment of "is 1riting career0 e argued t"at "ypernationalism 1ould causelasting damage to t"e American social fa2ric0 e 1as especially repulsed 2y 1artime campaigns to Americanie immigrants0 4ourneinstead envisioned a “transnational America& a place t"at, 2ecause of its distinct cultural and political traditions and et"nic diversity,could 2ecome an e;ample to t"e rest of t"e 1orld0 /ts respect for plurality at "ome could influence ot"er countries 2y e;ample, 2utalso 2y allo1ing it to mediate international disputes 1it"out 2ecoming a party to t"em0 4ourne 1anted an America fully engaged 1it"t"e 1orld, 2ut not em2roiled in military conflicts or alliances0 !"is 1as also t"e case for William 4ora", t"e progressive Repu2lican

senator from /da"o0 4ora" 1as an agrarian populist and somet"ing of a Eeffersonian "e 2elieved a;iomatically in local democracyand re-ected many forms of federal encroac"ment0 e 1as opposed to e;tensive immigration, 2ut not “anti)immigrant0& 4ora"t"oug"t t"at America 1as strengt"ened 2y its comple; et"nic ma3eup and t"at an im2alance tilted to1ard one group or anot"er1ould "ave deleterious effects0 4ut it is "is famously isolationist foreign policy vie1s for 1"ic" 4ora" is 2est 3no1n0 As <ic"ols1rites e 1as consistent in an anti)imperialist stance against U0S0 domination a2roadL yet "e 1as am2ivalent in cases involving1"at "e sa1 as involving o2vious national interestX0e also 1it"out fail argued t"at any open)ended military alliances 1ere to 2eavoided at all costs, 1"ile arguing t"at to minimie 1ar a2road as 1ell as conflict at "ome s"ould al1ays 2e a top priority for

American politicians0 4ora" t"us cautiously supported entry into t"e ?irst World War on national interest grounds, 2ut also led agroup of senators 3no1n as “t"e irreconcila2les& in t"eir successful effort to prevent U0S0 entry into t"e Neague of <ations0 isparamount concern 1as t"e collective security agreement in t"e organiation#s c"arter "e 1ould not assent to a treaty t"atstipulated t"at t"e United States 1ould 2e o2ligated to intervene in 1ars 2et1een distant po1ers 1"ere t"e country "ad no seriousinterest at sta3e0 4ora" possessed an alternative vision for a more -ust and pacific international order0 Ness t"an a decade after "e



"elped scuttle American accession to t"e Neague, "e "elped pass t"e ellogg)4riand act (>'@. in a nearly unanimous Senatevote0 More t"an si;ty states eventually 2ecame party to t"e pact, 1"ic" outla1ed 1ar 2et1een its signatories and re5uired t"em tosettle t"eir disputes t"roug" peaceful means0 !oday, realists sneer at t"e idealism of ellogg)4riand, 2ut t"e Senate 1asa1are of t"e pact#s limitations and carved out clear e;ceptions for cases of national defense0 Some supporters 2elieved t"at, ifnot"ing else, t"e la1 1ould "elp strengt"en an emerging international norm against 1ar0 (Given 1"at follo1ed, t"is seems li3e a sade;ercise in 1is")fulfillment0. Unli3e t"e Neague of <ations c"arter, t"e treaty faced almost no opposition from t"e isolationist 2loc int"e Senate, since it did not re5uire t"e United States to enter into a collective security agreement or a2rogate its sovereignty0 !"is1as a 3ind of internationalism 4ora" and "is irreconcila2les could proudly support0 !"e United States today loo3s verydifferent from t"e country in 1"ic" 4ora", let alone William Eames, lived, 2ot" domestically (1"ere political and civil freedoms"ave 2een e;tended to 1omen, African Americans, and gays and les2ians. and internationally (1it" its leading role in manyglo2al institutions.0 4ut different strains of isolationism persist0 <e1t Gingric" "as argued for a policy of total “energyindependence& (in ot"er 1ords, domestic drilling. 1"ile fulminating against resident 2ama for “2o1ing& to t"e Saudi 3ing0 W"ilerecently driving t"roug" an agricultural region of rural Colorado, / sa1 a giant roadside 2ill2oard calling for American 1it"dra1al fromt"e U<0 =et in t"e last decade, t"e Repu2lican arty, 1it" t"e partial e;ception of its Ron aulBli2ertarian faction, "asveered into suc" a 2elligerent unilateralism t"at its gray2eardsQone of 1"om, Senator Ric"ard Nugar of /ndiana, -ust

lost a primary to a far)rig"t c"allenger partly 2ecause of "is reasona2leness on foreign affairsQ1ere 2arely a2le to ensureSenate ratification of a 3ey nuclear arms reduction treaty 1it" Russia0 Many of t"ese same people desirea unilateral 1ar 1it" /ran0 And it isn#t -ust Repu2licans 0 Drone attac3s "ave intensified in =emen, a3istan, and

else1"ere under t"e 2ama administration0 Massive troop deployments continue una2ated0 We spend over69** 2illion dollars a year on our military 2udgetL t"e ne;t largest is C"ina#s, at “only& around 6** 2illion0

Administrations come and go, 2ut the national securit state a++ears here to sta0

An alternative is transition &ar :r3e3ins'i ; (T2ignie1 4reins3i, <ational Security Advisor in t"e Carter Administration, rofessor of ?oreign olicy atEo"ns op3ins University, “!"e C"oice&, lBn.

istory is a record of c"ange, a reminder t"at not"ing endures indefinitely0 /t can also remind us, "o1ever, t"at somet"ings endure for a long time, and 1"en t"ey disappear, t"e status 5uo ante does not reappear0 So it 1ill2e 1it" t"e current American glo2al preponderance0 /t too, 1ill fade at some point, pro2a2ly later t"an some 1is" and

earlier t"an m any Americans ta3e for granted0 !"e 3ey 5uestion is W"at 1ill replace it% An a2rupt termination of American"egemony 1ould 1it"out dou2t precipitate global chaos, in 1"ic" international anarc"y 1ould 2e punctuated2y eruptions of truly massive destructiveness0 An unguided progressive decline 1ould "ave a similar effect,spread out over a longer time0 4ut a gradual and controlled devolution of po1er could lead to an increasingly formaliedglo2al community of s"ared interest, 1it" supranational arrangements increasingly assuming some of t"e special security roles oftraditional nation)states0 /n any case, t"e eventual end of American "egemony 1ill not involve a restoration of

multipolarity among t"e familiar ma-or po1ers t"at dominated 1orld affairs for t"e last t1o centuries0 <or 1ill it yieldto anot"er dominant "egemon t"at 1ould displace t"e United States 2y assuming a similar political,military, economic, tec"nological, and sociocultural 1orld1ide preeminence0 !"e familiarpo1ers of t"elast century are too fatigued or too 1ea3 to assume t"e role t"e United States no1 plays0 /t is note1ort"y t"atsince @@*, in a comparative ran3ing of 1orld po1ers (cumulativey 2ased on t"eir economic strengt", miitary2udgets and assets,populations, etc0., t"e top five slots at se5uential t1enty)year intervals "ave 2een s"ared 2y -ust seven states t"e United States, t"eUnited ingdom, Germany, ?rance, Russia, Eapan, and C"ina0 nly t"e United States, "o1ever, unam2iguously earned inclusionamong t"e top five in every one of t"e t1entyY year intervals, and t"e gap in t"e year '*** 2et1een t"e top)ran3ed United Statesand t"e rest 1as vastly 1ider t"an ever 2efore0 !"e former ma-or $uropean po1ers H Great 4ritain, Germany, and ?rance

H are too 1ea3 to step into t"e 2reac"0 /n t"e ne;t t1o decades, it is 5uite unli3ely t"at t"e $uropean Union 1ill2ecome sufficiently united politically to muster t"e popular 1ill to compete 1it" t"e United States in t"epolitico)military arena0 Russia is no longer an imperial po1er, and its central c"allenge is to recoversocioeconomically lest it lose its far eastern territories to C"ina0 Eapans population is aging and itseconomy "as slo1edL t"e conventional 1isdom of t"e >@*s t"at Eapan is destined to 2e t"e ne;t VsuperstateV no1 "as t"e

ring of "istorical irony0 C"ina , even if it succeeds in maintaining "ig" rates of economic gro1t" and retains itsinternal political sta2ility (2ot" are far from certain., 1ill at 2est 2e a regional po1er still constrained 2y animpoveris"ed population, anti5uated infrastructure, and limited appeal 1orld1ide0 !"e same is true of/ndia , 1"ic" additionally faces uncertainties regarding its long)term national unity0 $ven a coalition amongt"e a2ove H a most unli3ely prospect, given t"eir "istorical conflicts and clas"ing territorial claims H 1ould lac3 t"eco"esion, muscle, and energy needed to 2ot" pus" America off its pedestal and sustain glo2al sta2ility 0 Someleading states, in any case, 1ould side 1it" America if pus" came to s"ove0 /ndeed, any evident American decline mig"t precipitateefforts to reinforce Americas leaders"ip0 Most important, t"e s"ared resentment of American "egemony 1ould notdampen t"e clas"es of interest among states0 !"e more intense collisions H in t"e event of Americasdecline H could spar3 a 1ildfire of regional violence , rendered all t"e more dangerous 2y t"e



dissemination of 1eapons of mass destruction0 !"e 2ottom line is t1ofold ?or t"e ne;t t1o decades, t"esteadying effect of American po1er 1ill 2e indispensable to glo2al sta2ility , 1"ile t"e principal challenge toAmerican power can come only from within H eit"er from t"e repudiation of po1er 2y t"e American democracyitself, or from Americas glo2al misuse of its o1n po1er0 American society, even t"oug" rat"er paroc"ial in itsintellectual and cultural interests, steadily sustained a protracted 1orld1ide engagement against t"e t"reat of totalitariancommunism and it is currently mo2ilied against international terrorism0 As long as t"at commitment endures, Americas role as t"eglo2al sta2ilier 1ill also endure0 S"ould t"at commitment fade H eit"er 2ecause terrorism "as faded, or 2ecause Americans tire or

lose t"eir sense of common purpose H Americas glo2al role could rapidly terminate0 !"at role could also 2eundermined and delegitimated 2y t"e misuse of U0S0 po1er0 Conduct t"at is perceived 1orld1ide asar2itrary could prompt America#s progressive isolation, undercutting not Americas po1er to defend itself as suc",

2ut rat"er its a2ility to use t"at po1er to enlist ot"ers in a common effort to s"ape a more secureinternational environment0

Countries &ill inevitabl strive for +o&er$uni+olarit defuses incentives forconflict

<ohlforth 4professor of government at Dartmout" (William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great o1er War,& W orld Affairs, Eanuary, pro-ect muse.

!"e ups"ot is a near sc"olarly consensus t"at unpolarity#s conse5uences for great po1er conflict are indeterminate and t"at apo1er s"ift resulting in a return to 2ipolarity or multipolarity 1ill not raise t"e specter of great po1er 1ar0 !"is article 5uestions t"econsensus on t1o counts0 ?irst, / s"o1 t"at it depends crucially on a du2ious assumption a2out "uman motivation0 rominent

t"eories of 1ar are 2ased on t"e assumption t"at people are mainly motivated 2y t"e instrumental pursuitof tangi2le ends suc" as p"ysical security and material prosperity0 !"is is 1"y suc" t"eories seem irrelevant to

interactions among great po1ers in an international environment t"at diminis"es t"e utility of 1ar for t"e pursuit of suc" ends0 =et1e 3no1 t"at people are motivated 2y a great many noninstrumental motives, not least 2y concerns regarding

t"eir social status0 + As Eo"n arsanyi noted, “ Apart from economic payoffs, social status (social ran3. seems to 2et"e most important incentive and motivating force of social 2e"avior0&7 !"is proposition rests on muc" firmer

scientific ground no1 t"an 1"en arsanyi e;pressed it a generation ago, as cumulating researc" s"o1s t"at "umansappear to 2e "ard1ired for sensitivity to status and t"at relative standing is a po1erful and independentmotivator of 2e"avior 0: J$nd age '>K Second, / 5uestion t"e dominant vie1 t"at status 5uo evaluations are relativelyindependent of t"e distri2ution of capa2ilities0 /f t"e status of states depends in some measure on t"eir relative capa2ilities, and ifstates derive utility from status, t"en different distri2utions of capa2ilities may affect levels of satisfaction, -ust as different incomedistri2utions may affect levels of status competition in domestic settings0 9 4uilding on researc" in psyc"ology and sociology, / arguet"at even capa2ilities distri2utions among ma-or po1ers foster am2iguous status "ierarc"ies, 1"ic"generate more dissatisfaction and clas"es over t"e status 5uo0 And t"e more stratified t"e distri2ution of

capa2ilities, t"e less li3ely suc" status competition is0 Unipolarity t"us generates far fe1er incentives t"aneit"er 2ipolarity or multipolarity for direct great po1er positional competition over status0 $lites in t"e ot"erma-or po1ers continue to prefer "ig"er status, 2ut in a unipolar system t"ey face comparatively 1ea3incentives to translate t"at preference into costly action0 And t"e a2sence of suc" incentives matters2ecause social status is a positional goodQsomet"ing 1"ose value depends on "o1 muc" one "as inrelation to ot"ers08 “/f everyone "as "ig" status,& Randall Sc"1eller notes, “no one does0&@ W"ile one actor mig"t

increase its status, all cannot simultaneously do so0 ig" status is t"us in"erently scarce, and competitions forstatus tend to 2e ero sum0>

Po&er transition theor +roves our argument/hanna 4 (arag, Director of t"e Glo2al Governance /nitiative at t"e <e1 America ?oundation, “!"e second 1orld "o1emerging po1ers are redefining glo2al competition in t"e t1enty)first century&, p0 ++8)++@.

$ven t"is scenario is optimistic, for superpo1ers are 2y definition 1illing to encroac" on t"e turf of ot"ersQ

c"anging t"e 1orld map in t"e process0 Muc" as in geology, suc" tectonic s"ifts al1ays result in eart"5ua3es, particularly as risingpo1ers tread on t"e entrenc"ed position of t"e reigning "egemon0:9 !"e sole e;ception 1as t"e t1entiet" century

Anglo)American transition in 1"ic" Great 4ritain and t"e United States 1ere allies and s"ared a commoncultureQand even t"at too3 t1o 1orld 1ars to complete0:8 As t"e relative levels of po1er of t"e t"reesuperpo1ers dra1 closer, t"e temptation of t"e num2er)t1o to preemptively 3noc3 out t"e 3ing on t"e "illgro1s, as does t"e lead po1er#s incentive to preventatively attac3 and 1ea3en its ascending rival 2efore2eing eclipsed0:@ David ume 1rote, “/t is not a great disproportion 2et1een ourselves and ot"ers 1"ic" produces envy, 2ut ont"e contrary, a pro;imity0&:> W"ile t"e density of contacts among t"e t"ree superpo1ers ma3es t"e creation of a society of statesmore possi2le t"an everQall t"e foreign ministers "ave one anot"ers# mo2ile p"one num2ersQt"e deep differences in interestsamong t"e t"ree ma3e forging a “culture of peace& more c"allenging t"an ever09* C"ina seas, "yperterrorism 1it" nuclear



1eapons, an attac3 in t"e Gulf of Aden or t"e Straits of Malacca0 !"e uncertain alignments of lesser 2ut stillsu2stantial po1ers suc" as Russia, Eapan, and /ndia could also cause escalation0 ?urt"ermore, America#sforeign lenders could pull t"e plug to undermine its grand strategy, spar3ing economic turmoil, politicalacrimony, and military tension0 War 2rings profit to t"e military)industrial comple; and is al1ayssupported 2y t"e large patriotic camps on all sides0 =et t"e notion of a Sino)U0S0 rivalry to lead t"e 1orld is alsopremature and simplistic, for in t"e event of t"eir conflict, $urope 1ould 2e t"e 1inner, as capital 1ould flee to its sanctuaries0!"ese great tensions are 2eing played out in t"e 1orld today, as eac" superpo1er strives to attain t"e most advantageous position

for itself, 1"ile none are po1erful enoug" to dictate t"e system 2y itself0 Glo2al sta2ility t"us "angs 2et1een t"e2oo3ends Raymond Aron identified as “peace 2y la1& and “peace 2y empire,& t"e former toot"less and t"e latter proneto e;cess09 istorically, successive iterations of 2alance of po1er and collective security doctrines "ave evolved from -ustifying1ar for strategic advantage into 2uilding systems to avoid it, 1it" t"e post)<apoleonic “Concert of $urope& as t"e first of t"e modernera09' 4ecause it follo1ed rules, it 1as itself somet"ing of a societal system0Z $ven 1"ere t"ese attempts at creating a sta2le1orld order "ave failedQincluding t"e Neague of <ations after World War /Qsystemic learning ta3es place in 1"ic" states(particularly democracies. internalie t"e lessons of t"e past into t"eir institutions to prevent "istory from repeating itself09+!oyn2ee too vie1ed "istory as progressive rat"er t"an purely cyclical, a 1"eel t"at not only turns around and around 2ut alsomoves for1ard suc" t"at Civiliation (1it" a 2ig C. could 2ecome civilied097 4ut did "e “give too muc" credit to time#s arro1s andnot enoug" to time#s cycle&%9: $mpires and superpo1ers usually promise peace 2ut 2ring 1ars099 !"e time torecognie t"e current revolutionary situation is no1Q2efore t"e ne;t 1orld 1ar 098

There is no singular root cause!Shar+e, lecturer, p"ilosop"y and psyc"oanalytic studies, and Gouc"er, senior lecturer, literary and

psyc"oanalytic studies H Dea3in University, =1>(Matt"e1 and Geoff, [i\e3 and olitics An /ntroduction, p0 '+ H '++.

We realise t"at t"is argument, 1"ic" 1e propose as a ne1 5uilting# frame1or3 to e;plain [i\e3#s t"eoretical oscillations and politicalprescriptions, raises some large issues of its o1n0 W"ile t"is is not t"e place to furt"er t"at discussion, 1e t"in3 its analytic forceleads into a muc" 1ider criti5ue of !"eory# in parts of t"e latert1entiet") century academy, 1"ic" emerged follo1ing t"e culturalturn# of t"e >9*s and >8*s in t"e 1a3e of t"e collapse of Mar;ism0 [i\e3#s paradigm to try to generate all "is t"eory ofculture, su2-ectivity, ideology, politics and religion is psyc"oanalysis0 4ut a similar criticism 1ould apply, for

instance, to t"eorists 1"o feel t"at t"e met"od Eac5ues Derrida developed for criticising p"ilosop"ical te;ts can meaningfully

supplant t"e met"odologies of political science, p"ilosop"y, economics, sociology and so fort", 1"en itcomes to t"in3ing a2out t"e political#0 r , differently, t"in3ers 1"o opt for Deleue (or Deleue#s and Guattari#s.

<ietsc"ean Spinoism as a ne1 metap"ysics to e;plain et"ics, politics, aest"etics, ontology and so fort", seemto us candidates for t"e same type of criticism, as a reductive +assing over t"e em+irical and analticdistinctness of t"e different o2-ect fields in com+le societies ! /n trut", 1e feel t"at !"eory, and t"e continuing

line of master t"in3ers# 1"o regularly appear particularly in t"e $nglis") spea3ing 1orld, is t"e last gasp of 1"at used to 2ecalled ?irst "ilosop"y0 !"e p"ilosop"er ascends out of t"e city, lato tells us, from 1"ence s"e can espie t"e ig"er

!rut", 1"ic" s"e must t"en 2ring 2ac3 do1n to political eart"0 ?rom outside t"e city, 1e can 1ell imagine t"at s"e can see muc"

more 1idely t"an "er 2enig"ted political contemporaries0 4ut from t"ese p"ilosop"ical "eig"ts, 1e can e5ually suspect

t"at t"e master t"in3er# is also al&as in danger of +assing over t"e salient differences and features of

political life H differences only too evident to people on t"e ground# 0 olitical life , after all, is al1ays a morecomple; affair t"an a 2unc" of ideologically duped fools staring at and enacting a 1all (or politically correct screen#.

of ideologically produced illusions, from lato#s timeless cave allegory to [i\e3#s t"eory of ideology0 We 3no1 t"at !"eory largelyunderstands itself as avo1edly post) metap"ysical#0 /t aims to erect its ne1 claims on t"e gravestone of ?irst "ilosop"y as t"eWest "as 3no1n it0 4ut it also tells us t"at people very often do not 3no1 1"at t"ey do0 And so it seems to us t"at too many of itsproponents and t"eir follo1ers are mourners 1"o remain in t"e graveyard, propping up t"e gravestone of Westernp"ilosop"y under t"e sign of some totalising account of a2solutely everyt"ing H en-oyment, diff]rance,2iopo1er 0 0 0 er"aps t"e time "as come , 1e 1ould argue, less for one more 1ould) 2e glo2al, allpurpose e;istential

and political !"eory t"an for a multi7 dimensional and interdisci+linar critical theor t"at 1ould c"allenge t"ec"aotic specialisation neoli2eralism speeds up in academe, 1"ic" mirrors and accelerates t"e splintering of t"e Neft over t"e lastfour decades0 !"is 1ould mean t"at 1e 1ould "ave to s"un t"e "ope t"at one met"od, one perspective, or one master

t"in3er could single) "andedly decip"er all t"e comple;ity of socio) political life, t"e concerns of really e;isting social

movements H 1"ic" specifi cally does not mean mindlessly cele2rating difference, marginalisation and multiplicity as if

t"ey could 2e suffi cient ends for a ne1 politics0 9t &ould be to reo+en critical theor and non7 analtic+hiloso+h to the other intellectual disci+lines , most of &hom today +ointedl re6ect Theor-slegitimac, neit"er reading it nor ta3ing it seriously0



:est studies validate hegemonic stabilit theor?it is the +roimate cause of+eace

%&en =11Eo"n M0 1en rofessor of olitics at University of Iirginia "D from arvard VD<#! D/SCU<! $G$M<=V ?e2 1110cato)un2ound0orgB'*B*'BB-o"n)o1enBdont)discount)"egemonyB

Andre1 Mac3 and "is colleagues at t"e uman Security Report ro-ect are to 2e congratulated0 <ot only do t"ey present a

study 1it" a stri3ing conclusion, driven 2y data, free of t"eoretical or ideological 2ias, 2ut t"ey also dosomet"ing 5uite unfas"iona2le t"ey 2ear good ne1s0 Social scientists really are not supposed to do t"at0 ur -o2 is, if not to 2e

Malt"usians, t"en at least to point out distur2ing trends, looming catastrop"es, and t"e im2ecility andmendacity of policy ma3ers0 And t"en it is to say 1"y, if people listen to us, t"ings 1ill get 2etter0 We do t"is as if our careersdepended upon it, and per"aps t"ey doL for if all is going to 2e 1ell, 1"at need t"en for us% ur colleagues at Simon ?raserUniversity are 2rave indeed0 !"at may sound li3e a setup, 2ut it is not0 / s"all c"allenge neit"er t"e data nor t"e generalconclusion t"at violent conflict around t"e 1orld "as 2een decreasing in fits and starts since t"e SecondWorld War0 W"en it comes to violent conflict among and 1it"in countries, things have been gettingbetter 0 (!"e trends "ave not 2een linearQ?igure 0 actually s"o1s t"at t"e fre5uency of interstate 1ars pea3ed in t"e >@*sQ2ut t"e 9:)year movement is clear0. /nstead / s"all accept t"at Mac3 et al0 are correct on t"e macro)trends, and focus on t"eire;planations t"ey advance for t"ese remar3a2le trends0 Wit" apologies to any readers of t"is forum 1"o recoil from academicde2ates, t"is mig"t get mildly t"eoretical and even more mildly met"odological0 Concerning international 1ars, oneversion of t"e “nuclear)peace& t"eory is not in fact laid to rest 2y t"e data0 /t is certainly true t"at nuclear)armedstates "ave 2een involved in many 1ars0 !"ey "ave even 2een attac3ed (t"in3 of /srael., 1"ic" falsifies t"e simple claim of “assured

destruction&Qt"at any nuclear country A 1ill deter any 3ind of attac3 2y any country 4 2ecause 4 fears a retaliatory nuclear stri3efrom A0 4ut t"e most important “nuclear)peace& claim "as 2een a2out mutually assured destruction, 1"ic"o2tains 2et1een t1o ro2ustly nuclear)armed states0 !"e claim is t"at (. rational states "aving second)stri3e capa2ilitiesQenoug" delivera2le nuclear 1eaponry to survive a nuclear first stri3e 2y an enemyQ1ill "ave anover1"elming incentive not to attac3 one anot"erL and ('. 1e can safely assume t"at nuclear)armed states are rational0 /t follo1st"at states 1it" a second)stri3e capa2ility 1ill not fig"t one anot"er0 !"eir colossal atomic arsenals neit"er 3ept t"e United States atpeace 1it" <ort" Iietnam during t"e Cold War nor t"e Soviet Union at peace 1it" Afg"anistan0 4ut t"e argument remains strongt"at t"ose arsenals did "elp 3eep t"e United States and Soviet Union at peace 1it" eac" ot"er0 W"y non)nuclear states are not

deterred from fig"ting nuclear states is an important and open 5uestion0 4ut in a time 1"en calls to 2an t"e 4om2 are 2eing "eardfrom more and more 5uarters, 1e must 2e clear a2out precisely 1"at t"e 2road trends to1ard peace can and cannot tell us0 !"eymay tell us not"ing a2out 1"y 1e "ave "ad no World War ///, and little a2out t"e 1isdom of 2anning t"e 4om2 no10 Regardingt"e do&n&ard trend in international &ar , rofessor Mac3 is friendlier to more palata2le t"eories suc"as t"e “ democratic +eace& (democracies do not fig"t one anot"er, and t"e proportion of democracies "as increased, "ence

less 1ar.L t"e interdependence or “commercial +eace & (states 1it" e;tensive economic ties find it irrational to fig"t one

anot"er, and interdependence "as increased, "ence less 1ar.L and t"e notion t"at people around t"e 1orld aremore anti)1ar t"an t"eir fore2ears 1ere0 Concerning t"e do1n1ard trend in civil 1ars, "e favors t"eoriesof economic gro1t" (1"ere commerce is enric"ing enoug" people, violence is less appealingQa logic similar to t"at of t"e“commercial peace& t"esis t"at applies among nations. and t"e end of t"e Cold War (1"ic" end reduced superpo1er support forrival re2el factions in so many !"ird)World countries.0 !"ese are all +lausible mechanisms for +eace0 W"at ismore, none of t"em e;cludes any ot"erL all could 2e 1or3ing to1ard t"e same end0 !"at 1ould 2e some1"at

puling, "o1ever0 /s t"e 1orld -ust luc3y t"ese days% o1 is it t"at an array of peace)inducing factors"appens to 2e 1or3ing coincidentally in our time, 1"en suc" a magical array 1as a2sent in t"e past% !"e ans1ermay 2e t"at one or more of t"ese mec"anisms reinforces some of t"e ot"ers, or per"aps some of t"emare mutually reinforcing0 Some sc"olars, for e;ample, "ave 2een focusing on 1"et"er economic gro1t" mig"t support

democracy and vice versa, and 1"et"er 2ot" mig"t support international cooperation, including to end civil 1ars0 We 1ould stillneed to e;plain "o1 t"is c"armed circle of causes got started , "o1ever0 And "ere let me raise anot"erfactor, per"aps even less appealing t"an t"e “nuclear peace& t"esis, at least outside of t"e United States0!"at factor is 1"at international relations sc"olars call "egemonyQspecifically American hegemon 0 At"eory t"at many regard as discredited, 2ut t"at refuses to go a1ay, is called "egemonic sta2ility t"eory0 !"e t"eory

emerged in t"e >8*s in t"e realm of international political economy0 /t asserts t"at for the globaleconom to remain o+en Qfor countries to 3eep 2arriers to trade and investment lo1Qone +o&erfulcountr must ta'e the lead0 Depending on t"e t"eorist 1e consult, “ta3ing t"e lead& entails paying for glo2alpu2lic goods (3eeping t"e sea lanes open, providing li5uidity to t"e international economy., coercion(t"reatening to raise trade 2arriers or 1it"dra1 military protection from countries t"at c"eat on t"e rules., or2ot"0 !"e t"eory is s3eptical t"at international cooperation in economic matters can emerge or endurea2sent a "egemon0 !"e distastefulness of suc" claims is self)evident t"ey imply t"at it is good for everyone t"e 1orld over ifone country "as more 1ealt" and po1er t"an ot"ers0 More precisely, t"ey imply t"at it "as 2een good for t"e 1orld t"at t"e United

http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/






States "as 2een so predominant0 !"ere is no o2vious reason 1"y "egemonic sta2ility t"eory could not apply toot"er areas of international cooperation, including in security affairs, "uman rig"ts, international la1,peace3eeping (U< or ot"er1ise., and so on0 W"at / 1ant to suggest "ereQsuggest, not testQis t"at Americanhegemon might 6ust be a dee+ cause of the stead decline of +olitical deaths in the &orld0 o1could t"at 2e% After all, t"e report states t"at United States is t"e t"ird most 1ar)prone country since >7:0 Many of t"e deat"sdepicted in ?igure *07 1ere in 1ars t"at involved t"e United States (t"e Iietnam War 2eing t"e leading one.0 <ot1it"standingpoliticians# claims to t"e contrary, a candid loo3 at U0S0 foreign policy reveals t"at t"e country is as rut"lessly

self)interested as any ot"er great po1er in "istory0 !"e ans1er is t"at U0S0 "egemony mig"t -ust 2e adee+er cause of the +roimate causes outlined 2y rofessor Mac30 Consider economic gro1t" andopenness to foreign trade and investment, 1"ic" (so say some t"eories. render violence irrational0 Americanpo1er and policies may 2e responsi2le for t"ese in t1o related 1ays0 ?irst, at least since t"e >7*s

Was"ington "as +rodded other countries to embrace the mar'et ca+italism t"at entails economicopenness and produces sustainable economic gro&th 0 !"e United States promotes capitalism forselfis" reasons, of course its o1n domestic system depends upon gro1t", 1"ic" in turn depends upon t"e efficiency gainsfrom economic interaction 1it" foreign countries, and t"e more t"e 2etter0 During t"e Cold War most of i ts allies accepted somedegree of mar3et)driven gro1t"0 Second, t"e U0S0)led 1estern victory in t"e Cold War damaged t"e credi2ility ofalternative pat"s to developmentQcommunism and import)su2stituting industrialiation 2eing t"e t1o leading onesQandleft mar'et ca+italism the best model 0 !"e end of t"e Cold War also involved an end to t"e 2illions of ru2les in Soviet

material support for regimes t"at tried to ma3e t"ese alternative models 1or30 (/t also, as rofessor Mac3 notes, eliminatedthe su+er+o&ers- incentives to feed civil violence in t"e !"ird World 0. W"at 1e call globali3ation is

caused in +art b the emergence of the U nited S tates as the global hegemon0 !"e same case can2e made, 1it" some1"at more difficulty, concerning t"e s+read of democrac 0 Was"ington "as supporteddemocracy only under certain conditionsQt"e c"ief one 2eing t"e a2sence of a popular anti)Americanmovement in t"e target stateQ2ut t"ose conditions "ave 2ecome muc" more 1idespread follo1ing t"ecollapse of communism0 !"us in t"e >@*s t"e Reagan administrationQt"e most anti)communist government America ever

"adQ2egan to dump America#s old dictator friends, starting in t"e "ilippines0 !oday /slamists tend to 2e anti)American,and so t"e 2ama administration is s3ittis" a2out democracy in $gypt and ot"er aut"oritarian Muslimcountries0 4ut general U0S0 material and moral support for li2eral democracy remains strong0

"o" +rocurement of S()s ma'es militar bases resilient$solves the im+actLoudermil' 11Mica" E0 Noudermil3, Researc" Associate for t"e $nergy F $nvironmental Security olicy program 1it" t"e /nstitute for <ationalStrategic Studies at <ational Defense University, :B+B, Small <uclear Reactors and US $nergy Security Concepts, Capa2ilities,and Costs, 1110ensec0orgBinde;0p"p%optioncomOcontentFvie1articleFid+7small)nuclear)reactors)and)us)energy)security)

concepts)capa2ilities)and)costsFcatid9content*7F/temid+8:

at" for1ard Department of Defense as first)mover ro2lematically, despite t"e immense energy security 2enefits t"at 1ouldaccompany t"e 1ide)scale adoption of small modular reactors in t"e US, 1it" a difficult regulatory environment, anti)

nuclear lo22ying groups, s3eptical pu2lic opinion, and of course t"e recent ?u3us"ima accident, t"e nuclear industry faces atoug" road in t"e 2attle for ne1 reactors 0 W"ile resident 2ama and $nergy Secretary C"u "avedemonstrated support for nuclear advancement on t"e SMR front, progress 1ill prove difficult0 o1ever, apotential route e;ists 2y 1"ic" small reactors may more easily 2ecome a reality t"e US military 0 !"e US<avy "as successfully managed, 1it"out accident, over :** small reactors on)2oard its s"ips andsu2marines t"roug"out :* years of nuclear operations0 At t"e same time, serious concern e;ists, "ig"lig"ted 2y t"e

Defense Science 4oard !as3 ?orce in '**@, t"at US militar bases are tied to, and almost entirel de+endent u+on, the fragile civilian electrical grid for 44@ of its electricit consum+tion0 !o protect military2ases# po1er supplies and t"e nation#s mili tary assets "oused on t"ese domestic installations, t"e 4oardrecommended a strategy of “islanding& t"e energy supplies for military installations, t"us ensuring t"eirsecurity and availa2ility in a crisis or conflict t"at disrupts t"e nation#s grid or energy supplies0 DD "as

soug"t to ac"ieve t"is t"roug" decreased energy consumption and rene1a2le tec"nologies placed on 2ases, 2ut

t"ese endeavors 1ill not go nearly far enoug" in ac"ieving t"e department#s o2-ectives0 o1ever, b +lacing sm allr eactor s on domestic US militar bases, "%" could solve its o&n energ securit 2uandar$+roviding assured su++lies of secure and constant energ both to bases and possi2ly thesurrounding civilian areas as 1ell0 Concerns over reactor safety and security are alleviated 2y t"esecurity already present on installations and t"e military#s long "istory of successfully operating nuclearreactors 1it"out incident 0 Unli3e reactors on)2oard s"ips, small reactors "oused on domestic 2ases 1ould undou2tedly 2e

su2-ect to <uclear Regulatory Commission (<RC. regulation and certification, "o1ever, &ith strong militar bac'ing,

http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=314:small-nuclear-reactors-and-us-energy-security-concepts-capabilities-and-costs&catid=116:content0411&Itemid=375






ado+tion of the reactors ma +rove significantl easier than &ould other&ise be +ossible0

Additionally, as t"e reactors 2ecome integrated on military facilities, general fears over t"e use ande;pansion of nuclear po1er 1ill ease, creating inroads for 1idespread adoption of t"e tec"nology at t"eprivate utility level0 ?inally, and per"aps most importantly, action b "%" as a first moverB on small reactortechnolog &ill +reserve America-s 2adly struggling and nearly e;tinct nuclear energ industr 0 !"eUS possesses a 1ealt" of 3no1ledge and tec"nological e;pertise on SMRs and "as an opportunity tota3e a leading role in its adoption 1orld1ide0 Wit" t"e domestic nuclear industry largely dormant for t"reedecades, t"e US is at ris3 of losing its position as t"e glo2al leader in t"e international nuclear energymar3et0 /f t"e current trend continues, t"e US 1ill reac" a point in t"e future 1"ere it is forced to importnuclear tec"nologies from ot"er countriesQa point ec"oed 2y Secretary C"u in "is pus" for nuclear po1er e;pansion0

Action 2y t"e military to install reactors on domestic 2ases1ill guarantee t"e s"ort)term survival of t"e USnuclear industry and 1ill 1or3 to solidify long)term support for nuclear energy0 Conclusions /n t"e end, smallmodular reactors present a via2le pat" for1ard for 2ot" t"e e;pansion of nuclear po1er in t"e US and also

for en"anced US energy security0 ffering "ig"ly safe, secure, and proliferation)resistant designs, SMRs"ave t"e potential to 2ring car2on)free 2aseload distri2uted po1er across t"e United States0 Small reactorsmeasure up 1it", and even eceed, large nuclear reactors on 2uestions of safet and possi2ly on t"e

financial costD front as 1ell0 SMRs carry many of t"e 2enefits of 2ot" large)scale nuclear energy generation and rene1a2le

energy tec"nologies0 At t"e same time, t"ey can reduce US dependence on fossil fuels for electricity productionQmoving t"e US a"ead on car2on dio;ide and GG reduction goals and setting a glo2al e;ample0 W"ile domestic "urdles 1it"in t"enuclear regulatory environment domestically "ave proven nearly impossi2le to overcome since !"ree Mile /sland, military

adoption of small reactors on its 2ases 1ould provide energy security for t"e nation#s military forces andmay create t"e inroads necessary to advance t"e tec"nology 2roadly and eventually lead to t"eir 1ide)scale adoption0



A"#

Contention t&o is &arming$

<arming is real, anthro+ogenic and still reversibleNuccitelli 11 (Dana <uccitelli is an environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm int"e Sacramento, California area0 e "as a 4ac"elors Degree in astrop"ysics from t"e University ofCalifornia at 4er3eley, and a Masters Degree in p"ysics from t"e University of California at Davis0 e "as2een researc"ing climate science, economics, and solutions as a "o22y since '**9, and "as contri2utedto S3eptical Science since Septem2er, '**0, Updated '*, riginally osted >B'7B'**, “!"e 4igicture&, "ttpBB1110s3epticalscience0comB2ig)picture0"tml.

!"e $art" is Warming We 3no1 t"e planet is 1arming from surface temperature stations and satellitesmeasuring t"e temperature of t"e $art"s surface and lo1er atmosp"ere0 We also "ave various tools 1"ic"

"ave measured t"e 1arming of t"e $art"s oceans0 Satellites "ave measured an energy im2alance at t"e top of t"e

$art"s atmosp"ere0 Glaciers, sea ice, and ice s"eets are all receding0 Sea levels are rising0 Spring is arrivingsooner eac" year0 ThereEs sim+l no doubt 7 the +lanet is &arming (?igure .0 Glo2al Warming Continues And

yes, t"e 1arming is continuing0 !"e '***s 1ere "otter t"an t"e >>*s, 1"ic" 1ere "otter t"an t"e >@*s,1"ic" 1ere "otter t"an t"e >8*s0 '** tied for t"e "ottest year on record0 !"e ')mont" running average glo2al

temperature 2ro3e t"e record t"ree times in '**, according to <ASA Goddard /nstitute for Space Studies (G/SS. data0 Sea levelsare still rising, ice is still receding, spring is still coming earlier, t"eres still a planetary energy im2alance, etc0 etc0 Contrary to 1"atsome 1ould li3e us to 2elieve, t"e planet "as not magically stopped 1arming0 !"ose 1"o argue ot"er1ise are confusing s"ort)termnoise 1it" long)term glo2al 1arming (?igure '.0 ?oster and Ra"mstorf ('*. s"o1ed t"at 1"en 1e filter out t"e s"ort)termeffects of t"e sun, volcanoes, and $l <i^o cycles, t"e underlying man)made glo2al 1arming trend2ecomes even more clear (?igure +.0 ?or as muc" as atmosp"eric temperatures are rising, t"e amount of energy 2einga2sor2ed 2y t"e planet is even more stri3ing 1"en one loo3s into t"e deep oceans and t"e c"ange in t"e glo2al "eat content (?igure7.0 umans are /ncreasing Atmosp"eric Green"ouse Gases !"e amount of green"ouse gases in t"e atmosp"ere )

particularly car2on dio;ide (C'. ) "as 2een rising steadily over t"e past :* years0 !"ere are a num2er of lines of evidence

1"ic" clearly demonstrate t"at t"is increase is due to "uman activities, primarily 2urning fossil fuels0 !"e most direct ofevidence involves simple accounting0 umans are currently emitting appro;imately +* 2illion tons of C' per year, and t"e amountin t"e atmosp"ere is increasing 2y a2out : 2illion tons per year0 ur emissions "ave to go some1"ere ) "alf goes into t"eatmosp"ere, 1"ile t"e ot"er "alf is a2sor2ed 2y t"e oceans (1"ic" is causing anot"er ma-or pro2lem ) ocean acidification.0 We also3no1 t"e atmosp"eric increase is from 2urning fossil fuels 2ecause of t"e isotopic signature of t"e car2on in t"e atmosp"ere0Car2on comes in t"ree different isotopes, and plants "ave a preference for t"e lig"ter isotopes0 So if t"e fraction of lig"ter car2on

isotopes in t"e atmosp"ere is increasing, 1e 3no1 t"e increase is due to 2urning plants and fossil fuels, and t"at is 1"at scientistso2serve0 !"e fact t"at "umans are responsi2le for t"e increase in atmosp"eric C' is settled science0 !"e

evidence is clear)cut0 uman Green"ouse Gases are Causing Glo2al Warming There is over&helming evidence thathumans are the dominant cause of the recent global &arming, mainly due to our green"ouse gas emissions0

4ased on fundamental p"ysics and mat", 1e can 5uantify t"e amount of 1arming "uman activity is causing, and

verify t"at 1ere responsi2le for essentially all of t"e glo2al 1arming over t"e past + decades0 !"eaforementioned ?oster and Ra"mstorf ('*. found a *09_C per decade 1arming trend since >8> after filtering out t"e s"ort)termnoise0 /n fact 1e e;pect "uman green"ouse gas emissions to cause more 1arming t"an 1eve t"us far seen, due to t"e t"ermalinertia of t"e oceans (t"e time it ta3es to "eat t"em.0 uman aerosol emissions are also offsetting a significant amount of t"e1arming 2y causing glo2al dimming0 u2er and nutti ('*. found t"at "uman green"ouse gas emissions "ave caused 99more glo2al 1arming t"an "as 2een o2served since t"e >:*s, 2ecause t"e cooling effect of "uman aerosol emissions "ave offseta2out 77 of t"at 1arming0 !"ey found t"at overall, human effects are res+onsible for a++roimatel 1>>@of the observed global &arming over t"e past 9* years (?igure :.0 !"ere are also numerous fingerprints1"ic" 1e 1ould e;pect to see from an increased green"ouse effect (i0e0 more 1arming at nig"t, at "ig"er

latitudes, upper atmosp"ere cooling. t"at 1e "ave indeed o2served (?igure 9.0 Climate models "avepro-ected t"e ensuing glo2al 1arming to a "ig" level of accuracy , verifying t"at 1e "ave a goodunderstanding of t"e fundamental p"ysics 2e"ind climate c"ange0 Sometimes people as3 V1"at 1ould it ta3e tofalsify t"e man)made glo2al 1arming t"eory%V0 Well, 2asically it 1ould re5uire t"at our fundamental understanding of p"ysics 2e1rong, 2ecause t"ats 1"at t"e t"eory is 2ased on0 !"is fundamental p"ysics "as 2een scrutinied t"roug" scientific e;periments fordecades to centuries0 !"e Warming 1ill Continue We also 3no1 t"at if 1e continue to emit large amounts ofg reen " ouse g ase s, t"e planet 1ill continue to 1arm0 We 3no1 t"at t"e climate sensitivity to a dou2ling ofatmosp"eric C' from t"e pre)industrial level of '@* parts per million 2y volume (ppmv. to :9* ppmv (1ere currently at +>*

ppmv. 1ill cause 'H 70:_C of 1arming 0 And 1ere "eaded for :9* ppmv in t"e mid)to)late 'st century if 1econtinue 2usiness)as)usual emissions0 !"e precise sensitivity of t"e climate to increasing C' is still fairly uncertain 'H



70:_C is a fairly 1ide range of li3ely values0 o1ever, even if 1ere luc3y and t"e climate sensitivity is -ust '_C for dou2ledatmosp"eric C', if 1e continue on our current emissions pat", 1e 1ill commit ourselves to t"at amount of 1arming ('_C a2ovepre)industrial levels. 1it"in t"e ne;t 8: years0 !"e <et Result 1ill 2e 4ad !"ere 1ill 2e some positive results of t"is continued1arming0 ?or e;ample, an open <ort"1est assage, en"anced gro1t" for some plants and improved agriculture at "ig" latitudes(t"oug" t"is 1ill re5uire use of more fertiliers., etc0 o1ever, t"e negatives 1ill almost certainly out1eig" t"e positives, 2y a longs"ot0 Were tal3ing decreased 2iodiversity, 1ater s"ortages, increasing "eat 1aves (2ot" in fre5uency and

intensity., decreased crop yields due to t"ese impacts, damage to infrastructure, displacement of millions of people, etc0

Arguments to t"e contrary are superficial ne t"ing /ve found in reading s3eptic criticisms of climate science is t"at t"eyreconsistently superficial0 ?or e;ample, t"e criticisms of Eames ansens >@@ glo2al 1arming pro-ections never go 2eyond V"e 1as1rong,V 1"en in reality its important to evaluate 1"at caused t"e discrepancy 2et1een "is pro-ections and actual climate c"anges,and 1"at 1e can learn from t"is0 And t"ose 1"o argue t"at Vits t"e SunV fail to compre"end t"at 1e understandt"e ma-or mec"anisms 2y 1"ic" t"e Sun influences t"e glo2al climate, and t"at t"ey cannot e;plain t"ecurrent glo2al 1arming trend0 And t"ose 1"o argue Vits -ust a natural cycleV can never seem to identifye;actly 1"ic" natural cycle can e;plain t"e current 1arming, nor can t"ey e;plain "o1 our understanding oft"e fundamental climate p"ysics is 1rong0 !"ere are legitimate unresolved 5uestions Muc" ado is made out of t"e

e;pression Vt"e science is settled0V The science is settled in terms of 'no&ing that the +lanet is &armingra+idl, and that humans are the dominant cause0 !"ere are certainly unresolved issues0 As noted a2ove, t"eres a2ig difference 2et1een a '_C and a 70:_C 1arming for a dou2ling of atmosp"eric C', and its an important 5uestion to resolve,2ecause 1e need to 3no1 "o1 fast t"e planet 1ill 1arm in order to 3no1 "o1 fast 1e need to reduce our green"ouse gasemissions0 !"ere are significant uncertainties in some feed2ac3s 1"ic" play into t"is 5uestion0 ?or e;ample, 1ill clouds act as a netpositive feed2ac3 (2y trapping more "eat, causing more 1arming. or negative feed2ac3 (2y reflecting more sunlig"t, causing acooling effect. as t"e planet continues to 1arm% And e;actly "o1 muc" glo2al 1arming is 2eing offset 2y "uman aerosol emissions%

!"ese are t"e sorts of 5uestions 1e s"ould 2e de2ating, and t"e issues t"at most climate scientists are investigating0 Unfortunatelyt"ere is a t"ere is a very vocal contingent of people determined to continue arguing t"e resolved 5uestions for 1"ic" t"e science "asalready 2een settled0 And 1"en climate scientists are forced to respond to t"e constant propagation of misinformation on t"esesettled issues, it -ust detracts from our investigation of t"e legitimate, unresolved, important 5uestions0 Smart Ris3 ManagementMeans !a3ing Action eople are usually very conservative 1"en it comes to ris3 management0 Some of us 2uy fire insurance forour "omes 1"en t"e ris3 of a "ouse fire is less t"an , for e;ample0 W"en it comes to important o2-ects li3e cars and "omes, 1e1ould rat"er 2e safe t"an sorry0 4ut t"ere is argua2ly no more important o2-ect t"an t"e glo2al climate0 We relyon t"e climate for our 2asic re5uirements, li3e "aving enoug" accessi2le food and 1ater0 rudent ris3 managementin t"is case is clear0 !"e scientific evidence discussed a2ove s"o1s indisputa2ly t"at t"ere is a ris3 t"at1e are "eaded to1ards very "armful climate c"ange0 !"ere are uncertainties as to "o1 "armful t"e conse5uences 1ill

2e, 2ut uncertaint is not a valid reason for inaction0 !"eres very "ig" uncertainty 1"et"er /ll ever 2e in a car

accident, 2ut it 1ould 2e foolis" of me not to prepare for t"at possi2ility 2y purc"asing auto insurance0 Moreover, uncertaintycuts 2ot" 1ays, and its -ust as li3ely t"at the conse2uences &ill be &orse than &e e+ect as it is t"att"e conse5uences 1ont 2e very 2ad0 <e Can Solve the Problem !"e good ne1s is t"at 1e "ave t"etools 1e need to mitigate t"e ris3 posed 2y climate c"ange0 A num2er of plans "ave 2een put fort" to ac"ieve t"e

necessary green"ouse gas emissions cuts (i0e0 "ere and "ere and "ere.0 We already "ave all t"e tec" nology 1e need0pponents often argue t"at mitigating glo2al 1arming 1ill "urt t"e economy, 2ut t"e opposite is true0 !"ose 1"o argue t"at reducingemissions 1ill 2e too e;pensive ignore t"e costs of climate c"ange ) economic studies "ave consistently s"o1n t"at mitigation isseveral times less costly t"an trying to adapt to climate c"ange (?igure 8.0 !"is is 1"y t"ere is a consensus among economists 1it"e;pertise in climate t"at 1e s"ould put a price on car2on emissions (?igure @.0 s"ould US reduce emissions !"e 4ig icture !"e 2igpicture is t"at &e 'no& the +lanet is &arming, humans are causing it, there is a substantial ris' tocontinuing on our current +ath, 2ut 1e dont 3no1 e;actly "o1 large t"e ris3 is0 o1ever, uncertainty regarding t"emagnitude of t"e ris3 is not an e;cuse to ignore it0 We also 3no1 t"at if 1e continue on a 2usiness)as)usualpat", the ris' of catastro+hic conse2uences is ver high0 /n fact, the larger the uncertaint, thegreater the +otential for the ece+tionall high ris' scenario to become realit 0 We need to continue todecrease t"e uncertainty, 2ut its also critical to ac3no1ledge 1"at 1e 3no1 and 1"at 5uestions "ave 2een resolved, and t"at ta3ingno action is not an option0 !"e good ne1s is t"at 1e 3no1 "o1 to solve t"e pro2lem, and t"at doing so 1ill minimiet"e impact not only on t"e climate, 2ut also on t"e economy0 !"e 2ottom line is t"at from every perspective )scientific, ris3 management, economic, etc0 ) t"ere is no reason not to immeditately ta3e serious action to

mitigate climate c"ange, and failing to do so 1ould 2e e;ceptionally foolis"0

Prefer scientific consensusTrenberth et al! 1* (evin !ren2ert", Sc0D, Distinguis"ed Senior Scientist, Climate Analysis Section, <ational Center for

Atmosp"eric Researc" Ric"ard Somerville, "0D0, Distinguis"ed rofessor, Scripps /nstitution of ceanograp"y, University ofCalifornia, San Diego at"arine ay"oe, "0D0, Director, Climate Science Center, !e;as !ec" University Rasmus 4enestad, "0D0,Senior Scientist, !"e <or1egian Meteorological /nstitute Gerald Mee"l, "0D0, Senior Scientist, Climate and Glo2al DynamicsDivision, <ational Center for Atmosp"eric Researc" Mic"ael ppen"eimer, "0D0, rofessor of GeosciencesL Director, rogram inScience, !ec"nology and $nvironmental olicy, rinceton University eter Gleic3, "0D0, co)founder and president, acific /nstitutefor Studies in Development, $nvironment, and Security Mic"ael C0 MacCrac3en, "0D0, C"ief Scientist, Climate /nstitute,



Was"ington Mic"ael Mann, "0D0, Director, $art" System Science Center, ennsylvania State University Steven Running, "0D0,rofessor, Director, <umerical !erradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana Ro2ert Corell, "0D0, C"air, Arctic Climate/mpact AssessmentL rincipal, Glo2al $nvironment !ec"nology ?oundation Dennis -ima, "0D0, rofessor, Senior Researc"Scientist, and ead of t"e Dept0 of /nteriors Climate Science Center at Colorado State University Eos" Willis, "0D0, ClimateScientist, <ASAs Eet ropulsion Na2oratory Matt"e1 $ngland, "0D0, rofessor, Eoint Director of t"e Climate C"ange Researc"Centre, University of <e1 Sout" Wales, Australia en Caldeira, "0D0, Atmosp"eric Scientist, Dept0 of Glo2al $cology, Carnegie/nstitution Warren Was"ington, "0D0, Senior Scientist, <ational Center for Atmosp"eric Researc" !erry N0 Root, "0D0, Senior?ello1, Woods /nstitute for t"e $nvironment, Stanford University David aroly, "0D0, ARC ?ederation ?ello1 and rofessor,

University of Mel2ourne, Australia Eeffrey ie"l, "0D0, Senior Scientist, Climate and Glo2al Dynamics Division, <ational Center for Atmosp"eric Researc" Donald Wue22les, "0D0, rofessor of Atmosp"eric Sciences, University of /llinois Camille armesan, "0D0,rofessor of 4iology, University of !e;asL rofessor of Glo2al C"ange 4iology, Marine /nstitute, University of lymout", U SimonDonner, "0D0, Assistant rofessor, Department of Geograp"y, University of 4ritis" Colum2ia, Canada 4arrett <0 Roc3, "0D0,rofessor, Comple; Systems Researc" Center and Department of <atural Resources, University of <e1 amps"ire David Griggs,"0D0, rofessor and Director, Monas" Sustaina2ility /nstitute, Monas" University, Australia Roger <0 Eones, "0D0, rofessor,rofessorial Researc" ?ello1, Centre for Strategic $conomic Studies, Iictoria University, Australia William N0 C"ameides, "0D0,Dean and rofessor, Sc"ool of t"e $nvironment, Du3e University Gary =o"e, "0D0, rofessor, $conomics and $nvironmentalStudies, Wesleyan University, C! Ro2ert Watson, "0D0, C"ief Scientific Advisor to t"e U Department of $nvironment, ?ood andRural AffairsL C"air of $nvironmental Sciences, University of $ast Anglia Steven S"er1ood, "0D0, Director, Climate C"angeResearc" Centre, University of <e1 Sout" Wales, Sydney, Australia C"ris Rapley, "0D0, rofessor of Climate Science, UniversityCollege Nondon, U Eoan leypas, "0D0, Scientist, Climate and Glo2al Dynamics Division, <ational Center for Atmosp"ericResearc" Eames E0 McCart"y, "0D0, rofessor of 4iological ceanograp"y, arvard University Stefan Ra"mstorf, "0D0, rofessorof "ysics of t"e ceans, otsdam University, Germany Eulia Cole, "0D0, rofessor, Geosciences and Atmosp"eric Sciences,University of Ariona William 0 Sc"lesinger, "0D0, resident, Cary /nstitute of $cosystem Studies Eonat"an verpec3, "0D0,rofessor of Geosciences and Atmosp"eric Sciences, University of Ariona $ric Rignot, "0D0, Senior Researc" Scientist, <ASAsEet ropulsion Na2oratoryL rofessor of $art" System Science, University of California, /rvine Wolfgang Cramer, rofessor of Glo2al

$cology, Mediterranean /nstitute for 4iodiversity and $cology, C<RS, Ai;)en)rovence, ?rance, 'BB'*', “C"ec3 Wit" ClimateScientists for Iie1s on Climate&, "ttpBBonline01s-0comBarticleBS4***7'7*:'>8*'*787*>*7:88>+'8*8'878'99'0"tml.

Do you consult your dentist a2out your "eart condition% /n science, as in any area, reputations are 2ased on 3no1ledgeand e;pertise in a field and on pu2lis"ed, peer)revie1ed 1or30 /f you need surgery, you 1ant a "ig"ly e;perienced

e;pert in t"e field 1"o "as done a large num2er of t"e proposed operations0 =ou pu2lis"ed V<o <eed to anic A2out Glo2al WarmingV (op)ed, Ean0 '8. on climate c"ange 2y t"e climate)science e2uivalent of dentists +racticingcardiolog0 W"ile accomplis"ed in t"eir o1n fields, most of t"ese aut"ors "ave no e+ertise in climatescience0 !"e fe1 aut"ors 1"o "ave suc" e;pertise are 3no1n to "ave e;treme vie1s t"at are out of ste+ &ith nearl ever other climate e+ert0 !"is "appens in nearly every field of science0 ?or e;ample, t"ere is aretrovirus e;pert 1"o does not accept t"at /I causes A/DS0 And it is instructive to recall t"at a fe1 scientists continued to state t"atsmo3ing did not cause cancer, long after t"at 1as settled science0 Climate e;perts 3no1 t"at t"e long)term 1armingtrend "as not a2ated in t"e past decade0 /n fact, it 1as t"e 1armest decade on record0 2servations s"o1une2uivocall that our +lanet is getting hotter 0 And computer models "ave recently s"o1 n t"at duringperiods 1"en t"ere is a smaller increase of surface temperatures, &arming is occurring else1"ere int"e climate system, typically in t"e deep ocean0 Suc" periods are a relatively common climate p"enomenon, are consistent

1it" our p"ysical understanding of "o1 t"e climate system 1or3s, and certainly do not invalidate our understanding of"uman)induced 1arming or t"e models used to simulate t"at 1arming0 !"us, climate e;perts also 3no11"at one of us, evin !ren2ert", actually meant 2y t"e out)of)conte;t, misrepresented 5uote used in t"e op)ed0 Mr0 !ren2ert" 1as lamenting t"e inade5uacy of o2serving systems to fully monitor 1arming trends int"e deep ocean and ot"er aspects of t"e s"ort)term variations t"at al1ays occur, toget"er 1it" t"e long)term "uman)induced 1arming trend0 !"e <ational Academy of Sciences of t"e U0S0 (set up 2y resident A2ra"amNincoln to advise on scientific issues., as 1ell as ma-or national academies of science around t"e 1orld and every ot"er aut"oritative2ody of scientists active in climate researc" "ave stated t"at the science is clear The &orld is heating u+ andhumans are +rimaril res+onsible0 /mpacts are already apparent and 1ill increase0 Reducing futureimpacts 1ill re5uire significant reductions in emissions of "eat)trapping gases0 )esearch sho&s thatmore than 4@ of scientists activel +ublishing in the field agree that climate change is real and

human caused0 /t 1ould 2e an act of rec'lessness for an +olitical leader to disregard the &eight ofevidence and ignore the enormous ris's t"at climate c"ange clearly poses 0 /n addition, t"ere is very clearevidence t"at investing in t"e transition to a lo1)car2on economy 1ill not only allo1 t"e 1orld to avoid t"e1orst ris3s of climate c"ange, 2ut could also drive decades of economic gro1t"0 Eust 1"at t"e doctor ordered0

A ma6orit of the climate debate is settled$&e don-t need 1>>@ certainl, 6ustconsensus! %ur e+istemolog is sound!

Le&ando&s' and Ashle =11(Step"an, rofessor of Cognitive Studies at t"e University of Western Australia, and Mic"ael, rofessor of Astrop"ysics at t"eUniversity of <e1 Sout" Wales, “!"e false, t"e confused and t"e mendacious "o1 t"e media gets it 1rong on climate c"ange



,& "ttpBBt"econversation0edu0auBt"e)false)t"e)confused)and)t"e)mendacious)"o1)t"e)media)gets)it)1rong)on)climate)c"ange)::@, AM.

Certainty in science /f you as3 a scientist 1"et"er somet"ing is “settled& 2eyond any dou2t, t"ey 1ill almostal1ays reply “no&0 <ot"ing is ** certain in science 0 So "o1 certain is climate science% /s t"ere a :* c"ance t"att"e e;perts are 1rong and t"at t"e climate 1it"in our lifetimes 1ill 2e -ust fine% r is t"ere a * c"ance t"at t"e e;perts are1rong% r , or only *0***% !"e ans1er to t"ese 5uestions is vital 2ecause if t"e e;perts are rig"t, t"en 1e

must act to avert a ma-or ris30 Dropping your p"one Suppose t"at you lose your grip on your p"one0$;perience tells us t"at t"e p"one 1ill fall to t"e ground0 =ou drop a p"one, it falls do1n0 ?act0 Science tells us

t"at t"is is due to gravity, and no one dou2ts its inevita2ility0 o1ever, 1"ile science "as a good understanding ofgravity, our 3no1ledge is only partial0 /n fact, p"ysicists 3no1 t"at at a very deep level our t"eory of gravityis inconsistent 1it" 5uantum mec"anics, so one or 2ot" 1ill "ave to 2e modified0 We simply don#t 3no1 for sure"o1 gravity 1or3s0 4ut 1e still don#t -ump off 2ridges, and you 1ould 2e pretty silly to drop your p"one onto a concrete floor in t"e"ope t"at gravity is 1rong0 Climate c"ange vs0 gravity Greater comple;ity, compara2le certainty ur predictions of climatec"ange aren#t as simple as t"e action of gravity on a dropped p"one0 !"e $art" is a very comple; system t"ereare natural effects li3e volcanoes, and variations in t"e sunL t"ere are t"e vagaries of t"e 1eat"erL t"ere are complicating factorssuc" as clouds, and "o1 ice respondsL and t"en t"ere are t"e "uman influences suc" as deforestation and C' emissions0 4utdespite t"ese comple;ities , some aspects of climate science are thoroughl settled 0 <e 'no& t"at atmosp"eric C ' is increasing due to "umans0 We 3no1 t"at t"is C' , 1"ile 2eing -ust a small fraction of t"e

atmosp"ere, "as an important influence on temperature0 We can calculate t"e effect, and predict 1"at isgoing to "appen to t"e eart"#s climate during our lifetimes, all based on fundamental +hsics that is as

certain as gravit! !"e consensus opinion of t"e 1orld#s climate scientists is t"at climate c"ange isoccurring due to "uman C' emissions0 !"e c"anges are rapid and significant, and t"e implications for our civilisation

may 2e dire0 The chance of these statements being &rong is vanishingl small ! Scepticism and denialismSome people 1ill 2e understanda2ly sceptical a2out t"at last statement0 4ut 1"en t"ey read up on t"e science, and "ave t"eir5uestions ans1ered 2y climate scientists, t"ey come around0 !"ese people are true sceptics, and a degree of scepticism is "ealt"y0t"er people 1ill disagree 1it" t"e scientific consensus on climate c"ange, and 1ill c"allenge t"e science on internet 2logs andopinion pieces in t"e media, 2ut no matter "o1 many times t"ey are s"o1n to 2e 1rong, t"ey 1ill never c"ange t"eir opinions0!"ese people are deniers0 !"e recent articles in !"e Conversation "ave put t"e deniers under t"e microscope0 Some readers "aveas3ed us in t"e comments to address t"e scientific 5uestions t"at t"e deniers 2ring up0 !"is "as 2een done0 <ot once0 <ot t1ice0<ot ten times0 ro2a2ly more li3e ** or a *** times0 Denier arguments "ave 2een dealt 1it" 2y scientists, again and

again and again0 4ut li3e om2ies, t"e deniers 3eep coming 2ac3 1it" t"e same long)falsified andnonsensical arguments 0 !"e deniers "ave seemingly endless ent"usiasm to post on 2logs, 1rite letters to editors, 1rite

opinion pieces for ne1spapers, and even pu2lis" 2oo3s0 <hat the rarel do is &rite coherent scientific +a+erson their theories and submit them to scientific 6ournals ! The fe& +ublished +a+ers that have beensce+tical about climate change have not &ithstood the test of time ! !"e p"ony de2ate on climate c"ange Soif t"e evidence is t"is strong, 1"y is t"ere resistance to action on climate c"ange in Australia% At least t1o reasons can 2e cited0?irst, as !"e Conversation "as revealed, t"ere are a "andful of individuals and organisations 1"o , 2y avoidingpeer revie1, "ave engineered a p"ony pu2lic de2ate a2out t"e science, 1"en in fact t"at de2ate is a2sent from

t"e one arena 1"ere our scientific 3no1ledge is formed0 !"ese individuals and organisations "ave so far largelyescaped accounta2ility0 4ut t"eir free ride "as come to an end, as t"e ne;t fe1 1ee3s on !"e Conversation 1ill continue to

s"o10 !"e second reason, alas, involves systemic failures 2y t"e media0 Systemic media failures arisefrom several presumptions a2out t"e 1ay science 1or3s, 1"ic" range from 2eing utterly false to dangerously ill)informed to overtly malicious and mendacious0 !"e false Net#s 2egin 1it" 1"at is merely false0 A tacit presumption of many in t"emedia and t"e pu2lic is t"at climate science is a 2rittle "ouse of cards t"at can 2e 2roug"t do1n 2y a single ne1 finding or t"ediscovery of a single error0 <ot"ing could 2e furt"er from t"e trut"0 Climate science is a cumulative enter+rise 2uilt upon hundreds of ears of research 0 !"e "eat)trapping properties of C' 1ere discovered in t"emiddle of t"e >t" century, pre)dating even S"erloc3 olmes and Pueen Iictoria0 !"e resulting ro2ust 3no1ledge 1illnot 2e overturned 2y a single ne1 finding0 A furt"er false presumption of t"e media is t"at scientific opinions must

some"o1 2e 2alanced 2y an opposing vie10 W"ile 2alance is an appropriate conversational frame for t"e politicalsp"ere, it is 1"olly inappropriate for scientific issues, 1"ere 1"at matters is t"e 2alance of evidence, not opinion0 Atfirst glance, one mig"t 2e tempted to forgive t"e media#s inappropriate inclusion of unfounded contrarian opinions, given t"at itsfunction is to stimulate 2road de2ate in 1"ic", ideally, even e;otic opinions are given a voice0 4ut t"e media 2y and large do notreport t"e opinions of >B “trut"ers& 1"o t"in3 t"at t"e attac3s 1ere an “inside -o2& of t"e 4us" administration0 !"e media also donot report t"e opinion of people 1"o 2elieve rince "illip runs t"e 1orld#s drug trade0 !"e fact t"at e5ually outlandis" pseudo)scientific nonsense a2out climate science can 2e sprouted on !I 2y a cat palmist is evidence not of an o2session 1it" 2alance 2utof a stri3ing and selective failure of editorial responsi2ility0 W"at is needed instead of t"e false symmetry implied 2y“2alance& is 1"at t"e 44C calls impartiality H fact)2ased reporting t"at evaluates t"e evidence and comesto a reality)2ased conclusion0 !"e dangerously ill)formed An e;ample of a dangerous ly ill)informed opinion on"o1 science 1or3s is t"e 1idely propagated mth t"at scientists some"o1 "ave a “vested interest &,



presuma2ly financial, in climate c"ange 0 This mth has been carefull crafted b deniers to create achimerical smmetr bet&een their o&n ties to +olitical and economic interests and the allegedvested interestsB of scientists! /n actual fact, climate scientists "ave as muc" vested interest in t"e e;istence of climate

c"ange as cancer researc"ers do in t"e e;istence of t"e "uman papilloma virus (I.0 Cancer researc"ers are motivated2y t"e fact t"at cervical cancer 3ills, and t"e scientists 1"o developed t"e I vaccine did so to savelives, not to get t"eir grants rene1ed0 Climate scientists are li3e1ise motivated 2y t"e fact t"at climatec"ange 3ills 7*,*** people per year rig"t at t"is very moment, according to t"e World ealt" rganiation0 !"e scientists

1"o "ave 2een alerting t"e pu2lic of t"is ris3 for nearly '* years did so to save lives, not to get t"eir grants rene1ed0 Climatescientists are 2eing motivated 2y t"e realisation t"at "umanity "as got itself into serious trou2le 1it"climate c"ange, and it 1ill need t"e 2est scientific advice to navigate a solution0 As scientists, 1e as3 not for specialconsideration 2y t"e media, 2ut simply for t"e same editorial responsi2ility and 5uality control t"at is routinely applied to all ot"erarenas of pu2lic discourse0 Selective failure of 5uality control and editorial responsi2ility 1"en it comes to climatec"ange presents a grave +ublic disservice !

9t-s not too late<uccitelli @B+B'(Dana, environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm, 4ac"elors Degree in astrop"ysics from t"e University ofCalifornia at 4er3eley, and a Masters Degree in p"ysics from t"e University of California at Davis, “Realistically W"at Mig"t t"e?uture Climate Noo3 Ni3e%,& "ttpBB1110s3epticalscience0comBrealistically)1"at)mig"t)future)climate)loo3)li3e0"tml, AM.

Were not yet committed to surpassing '_C glo2al 1arming, 2ut as Watson noted, 1e are 5uic3ly running outof time to realistically give ourselves a c"ance to stay 2elo1 t"at danger l imit0 o1ever, '_C is not a do)or)die

t"res"old0 .ver bit of C%* emissions &e can reduce means that much avoided future &arming , 1"ic"

means t"at muc" avoided climate c"ange impacts0 As Nonnie !"ompson noted, t"e more glo2al 1arming 1e manage tomitigate, t"e less adaption and suffering 1e 1ill 2e forced to cope 1it" in t"e future0 Realistically, 2ased on t"ecurrent political climate (1"ic" 1e 1ill e;plore in anot"er post ne;t 1ee3., limiting glo2al 1arming to '_C is pro2a2ly t"e 2est 1e cando0 o1ever, t"ere is a 2ig difference 2et1een ' _C and +_C, 2et1een +_C and 7_C , and anyt"ing greatert"an 7_C can pro2a2ly accurately 2e descri2ed as catastro+hic , since various tipping points are e;pectedto 2e triggered at t"is level0 )ight no&, &e are on trac' for the catastro+hic conse2uences (1idespread

coral mortality, mass e;tinctions, "undreds of millions of people adversely impacted 2y droug"ts, floods, "eat 1aves, etc0.0 4ut1ere not stuc3 on t"at trac3 -ust yet , and 1e need to move ourselves as far off of it as possi2le 2yreducing our green"ouse gas emissions as soon and as muc" as possi2le0

C%* is 'e

Nuccitelli 11 (Dana <uccitelli is an environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm in t"eSacramento, California area0 e "as a 4ac"elors Degree in astrop"ysics from t"e University of Californiaat 4er3eley, and a Masters Degree in p"ysics from t"e University of California at Davis0 e "as 2eenresearc"ing climate science, economics, and solutions as a "o22y since '**9, and "as contri2uted toS3eptical Science since Septem2er, '**0, 'B*B'*', Vo1 do 1e 3no1 more C' is causing1arming%V, 1110s3epticalscience0comBempirical)evidence)for)co')en"anced)green"ouse)effect)intermediate0"tm.

An en"anced green"ouse effect from C' "as 2een confirmed 2y multi+le lines of em+irical evidence 0Satellite measurements of infrared spectra over t"e past 7* years o2serve less energy escaping to space att"e 1avelengt"s associated 1it" C'0 Surface measurements find more do1n1ard infrared radiation1arming t"e planets surface0 This +rovides a direct , empirical causal lin3 2et1een C' and glo2al

1arming 0 !"e green"ouse gas 5ualities of car2on dio;ide "ave 2een 3no1n for over a century0 /n @9, Eo"n !yndal pu2lis"edla2oratory results identifying car2on dio;ide as a green"ouse gas t"at a2sor2ed "eat rays (long1ave radiation.0 Since t"en, t"ea2sorptive 5ualities of car2on dio;ide "ave 2een more precisely 5uantified 2y decades of la2oratory measurements (er2erg >:+,4urc" >9', 4urc" >8*, etc.0 !"e green"ouse effect occurs 2ecause green"ouse gases let sunlig"t (s"ort1ave

radiation. pass t"roug" t"e atmosp"ere0 !"e eart" a2sor2s sunlig"t, 1arms t"en reradiates "eat (infrared or

long1ave radiation.0 !"e outgoing long1ave radiation is a2sor2ed 2y green"ouse gases in t"e atmosp"ere0

!"is "eats t"e atmosp"ere 1"ic" in turn re)radiates long1ave radiation in all directions0 Some of it ma3es its1ay 2ac3 to t"e surface of t"e eart"0 So 1it" more car2on dio;ide in t"e atmosp"ere, 1e e;pect to see less long1ave radiationescaping to space at t"e 1avelengt"s t"at car2on dio;ide a2sor20 We also e;pect to see more infrared radiation returning 2ac3 to$art" at t"ese same 1avelengt"s0 Satellite measurements of outgoing long1ave radiation /n >8*, <ASA launc"ed t"e /R/S

http://www.skepticalscience.com/realistically-what-might-future-climate-look-like.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/realistically-what-might-future-climate-look-like.html



satellite t"at measured infrared spectra 2et1een 7** cm) to 9** cm)0 /n >>9, t"e Eapanese Space Agency launc"ed t"e /MGsatellite 1"ic" recorded similar o2servations0 4ot" sets of data 1ere compared to discern any c"anges in outgoing radiation overt"e '9 year period (arries '**.0 !"e resultant c"ange in outgoing radiation 1as as follo1s W"at t"ey found 1as a drop inoutgoing radiation at t"e 1avelengt" 2ands t"at green"ouse gases suc" as car2on dio;ide (C'. and met"ane

(C7. a2sor2 energy0 !"e c"ange in outgoing radiation is consistent 1it" t"eoretical e;pectations0 !"ust"e paper found Vdirect e;perimental evidence for a significant increase in t"e $art"s green"ouse effectV0!"is result "as 2een confirmed 2y su2se5uent papers using more recent satellite data0 !"e >8* and >>8 spectra 1ere compared

1it" additional satellite data from t"e <ASA A/RS satellite launc"ed in '**+ (Griggs '**7.0 !"is analysis 1as e;tended to '**9using data from t"e AURA satellite launc"ed in '**7 (C"en '**8.0 4ot" papers found t"e o2served differences in C' 2andsmatc"ing t"e e;pected c"anges from rising car2on dio;ide levels0 !"us 1e "ave empirical evidence t"at increasedC' is causing an en"anced green"ouse effect0 Surface measurements of do1n1ard long1ave radiation Acompilation of surface measurements of do1n1ard long1ave radiation from >8+ to '**@ find anincreasing trend of more long1ave radiation returning to eart", attri2uted to increases in air temperature,"umidity and atmosp"eric car2on dio;ide (Wang '**>.0 More regional studies suc" as an e;amination of do1n1ardlong1ave radiation over t"e central Alps find t"at do1n1ard long1ave radiation is increasing due to an en"anced green"ouse effect("ilipona '**7.0 !a3ing t"is a step furt"er, an analysis of "ig" resolution spectral data allo1s scientists to 5uantitatively attri2utet"e increase in do1n1ard radiation to eac" of several green"ouse gases ($vans '**9.0 !"e results lead t"e aut"ors to concludet"at Vt"is e;perimental data s"ould effectively end t"e argument 2y s3eptics t"at no e;perimental evidence e;ists for t"e connection2et1een green"ouse gas increases in t"e atmosp"ere and glo2al 1arming0V Conservation of $nergy u2er and nutti ('*.pu2lis"ed a paper in <ature Geoscience, Ant"ropogenic and natural 1arming inferred from c"anges in $art"#s energy 2alance0!"ey ta3e an approac" in t"is study 1"ic" utilies t"e principle of conservation of energy for t"e glo2al energy 2udget using t"emeasurements discussed a2ove, and summarie t"eir met"odology VWe use a massive ensem2le of t"e 4ern'0:D climate modelof intermediate comple;ity, driven 2y 2ottom)up estimates of "istoric radiative forcing ?, and constrained 2y a set of o2servations oft"e surface 1arming ! since @:* and "eat upta3e P since t"e >:*s00004et1een @:* and '**, t"e climate system accumulated atotal net forcing energy of 7* ; *'' E 1it" a :)>: uncertainty range of >:)>8 ; *'' E, corresponding to an average netradiative forcing of roug"ly *0:7 (*0+9)*089.Wm)'0V $ssentially, u2er and nutti ta3e t"e estimated glo2al "eatcontent increase since @:*, calculate "o1 muc" of t"e increase is due to various estimated radiativeforcings, and partition t"e increase 2et1een increasing ocean "eat content and outgoing long1averadiation0 !"e aut"ors note t"at more t"an @: of t"e glo2al "eat upta3e (P. "as gone into t"e oceans, including increasing t"e"eat content of t"e deeper oceans, alt"oug" t"eir model only accounts for t"e upper 8** meters0 ?igure + is a similar grap"ic to t"atpresented in Mee"l et al0 ('**7., comparing t"e average glo2al surface 1arming simulated 2y t"e model using natural forcings only(2lue., ant"ropogenic forcings only (red., and t"e com2ination of t"e t1o (gray.0 /n ?igure 7, u2er and nutti 2rea3 do1n t"eant"ropogenic and natural forcings into t"eir individual components to 5uantify t"e amount of 1arming caused 2y eac" since t"e@:*s (?igure 72., >:*s (7c., and pro-ected from '*** to '*:* using t"e /CC SR$S A' emissions scenario as 2usiness)as)usual(7d.0 As e;pected, u2er and nutti find t"at green"ouse gases contri2uted to su2stantial 1arming since@:*, and aerosols "ad a significant cooling effect VGreen"ouse gases contri2uted 0+_C (*0@:)089_C. to t"eincrease, t"at is :> (*9)''. of t"e total 1arming0 !"e cooling effect of t"e direct and indirect aerosol forcing is a2out )*0@:_C()07@ to )*0+*_C.0 !"e 1arming induced 2y troposp"eric oone and solar varia2ility are of similar sie (roug"ly *0'_C.0 !"e

contri2utions of stratosp"eric 1ater vapour and oone, volcanic eruptions, and organic and 2lac3 car2on are small0V Since >:*, t"eaut"ors find t"at green"ouse gases contri2uted 99 ('*)':. of t"e o2served surface 1arming (*0@:_C of *0:_C estimatedsurface 1arming.0 !"e percentage is greater t"an ** 2ecause aerosols offset appro;imately 77 (*07:_C. of t"at 1arming0 V/t ist"us e;tremely li3ely (`>: pro2a2ility. t"at t"e green"ouse gas induced 1arming since t"e mid)t1entiet"century 1as larger t"an t"e o2served rise in glo2al average temperatures , and e;tremely li3ely t"atant"ropogenic forcings 1ere 2y far t"e dominant cause of 1arming0 !"e natural forcing contri2ution since>:* is near ero0V Conclusion There are multi+le lines of em+irical evidence that increasing carbondioide causes an enhanced greenhouse effect0 Na2oratory tests s"o1 car2on dio;ide a2sor2slong1ave radiation0 Satellite measurements confirm less long1ave radiation is escaping to space atcar2on dio;ide a2sorptive 1avelengt"s0 Surface measurements find more long1ave radiation returning2ac3 to $art" at t"ese same 1avelengt"s0 !"e result of t"is energy im2alance is t"e accumulation of "eatover t"e last 7* years0

Feedbac's are +ositive(andia 11 (Scott A0 Mandia, rofessor of "ysical Sciences at Suffol3 College, B''B'*, VGlo2al Warming Man orMyt"%V, 111'0sunysuffol30eduBmandiasBglo2alO1armingBgreen"ouseOgases0"tmlstratosp"ericOcooling.

A climate forcing mec"anism suc" as C' is one t"at 1ill cause a c"ange in climate0 A feed2ac3 mec"anism is onein 1"ic" t"e forced c"ange is eit"er amplified (positive feed2ac3. or dampened (negative feed2ac3.0 A

revie1 of t"e literature 2y 4ony et al0 ('**9. s"o1s t"at t"ere are four ma-or climate c"ange feed2ac3s0 !"ese are listed

2elo1 along 1it" t"e estimates of t"eir radiative feed2ac3 in parent"eses Water Iapor (0@* b *0@ WBm'B. <ater va+oris a very important +ositive feedbac' mechanism0 W"en t"e air gets 1armer, t"e saturation vapor pressure



of 1ater increases 0 !"at means t"at more 1ater vapor can 2e present in 1armer air 0 4ecause t"e averagerelative "umidity of t"e climate is conserved, a 1armer climate means t"at t"ere 1ill 2e more 1ater vaporin t"e air 0 /n turn, this causes a greater greenhouse effect &hich am+lifies the initial &arming causedb increasing industrial greenhouse gases0 !"is 1ater vapor feed2ac3 essentially dou2les t"e1arming caused 2y green"ouse gas forcing0 (<ote Water vapor molecules typically spend a2out * days in t"eatmosp"ere 1"ile elevated C' concentrations can remain for "undreds to t"ousands of years so 1ater vapor cannot 2e a climatec"ange forcing mec"anism li3e C'0. See A Matter of umidity 2y Dessler and S"er1ood ('**>. for more information0 NapseRate ()*0@7 b *0'9 WBm'B. !"e troposp"eric lapse rate (rate of c"ange of temperature 1it" "eig"t. affects t"eemission of NW radiation to space0 /f t"e troposp"ere 1arms uniformly, t"ere is no radiative feed2ac3 1"ereas if t"ere is a

larger decrease in temperature 1it" "eig"t t"ere 1ill 2e a greater green"ouse effect0 An atmosp"ere t"at 1arms more int"e lo1er troposp"ere 1ill produce a larger positive feed2ac3 1"ereas an atmosp"ere t"at 1arms faster at "ig"er

altitudes 1ill produce a negative feed2ac30 Clouds (*09> b *0+@ WBm'B. Cloud feed2ac3s are t"e most uncertain 2utprogress "as 2een made in recent years to understand t"e magnitude of t"e cloud feed2ac30 Clouds areeffective at a2sor2ing and emitting NW radiation and are also affective at reflecting SW radiation0 !"e feed2ac3 from clouds isinfluenced 2y cloud amount, cloud "eig"t and vertical profile, optical dept", li5uid and ice 1ater contents, and particle sies0(Step"ens, '**:. ?or some climate models, cloud feed2ac3 is +ositive and compara2le in strengt" to t"ecom2ined “1ater vapor plus lapse rate& feed2ac3 1"ile for ot"er models, cloud feed2ac3 is close toneutral0 (Soden and eld, '**9. Surface Al2edo (*0'9 b *0*@ WBm'B. Al2edo is defined as t"e percentage ofincoming SW radiation from t"e sun t"at is reflected0 /n a 1armer climate , "ig"ly reflective sno1 and icemelt a1ay and leave less reflective surfaces suc" as 1ater and land e;posed 2elo10 !"ese lo1er al2edo

surfaces 1ill a2sor2 more incoming radiation t"an t"e sno1 and ice t"at 1ere a2ove resulting in a positivefeed2ac30 "es+ite the large uncertaint in the magnitude of cloud feedbac's , the overall +icture offeedbac's in a &armer &orld is one that is +ositive ) meaning that greenhouse gas &arming &ill beenhanced b these mechanisms0 A super2 tutorial on forcing and feed2ac3s can 2e read at C"ris Coloses Re)visitingclimate forcingBfeed2ac3 concepts

The im+act is suffering and eventuall etinction$our im+act claims havee+istemological 6ustifications"eibel (!erry N, rofessor of /R <ational War College, “?oreign Affairs Strategy Nogic for American Statecraft&,Conclusion American ?oreign Affairs Strategy !oday.

?inally, t"ere is one ma-or e;istential t"reat to American security (as 1ell as prosperity. of a nonviolent nature, 1"ic",

t"oug" far in t"e future, demands urgent action0 /t is t"e t"reat of glo2al 1arming to t"e sta2ility of t"e climateupon 1"ic" all eart"ly life depends 0 Scientists 1orld1ide "ave 2een o2serving t"e gat"ering of t"is t"reat for t"ree

decades no1, and 1"at 1as once a mere possi2ility "as passed t"roug" pro2a2ility to near certainty0 /ndeednot one of more t"an >** articles on climate c"ange pu2lis"ed in refereed scientific -ournals from >>+ to'**+ dou2ted t"at ant"ropogenic 1arming is occurring0 “/n legitimate scientific circles,& 1rites $lia2et"

ol2ert, “it is virtually impossi2le to find evidence of disagreement over t"e fundamentals of glo2al1arming0& $vidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost 1ee3ly, as t"is sample of ne1spaperreports s"o1s an international panel predicts “2rutal droug"ts, floods and violent storms across t"e planet over t"e ne;t century&Lclimate c"ange could “literally alter ocean currents, 1ipe a1ay "uge portions of Alpine Sno1caps and aid t"e spread of c"olera andmalaria&L “glaciers in t"e Antarctic and in Greenland are melting muc" faster t"an e;pected, andX1orld1ide, plants are 2loomingseveral days earlier t"an a decade ago&L “rising sea temperatures "ave 2een accompanied 2y a significant glo2al increase in t"emost destructive "urricanes&L “<ASA scientists "ave concluded from direct temperature measurements t"at '**: 1as t"e "ottestyear on record, 1it" >>@ a close second&L “$art"#s 1arming climate is estimated to contri2ute to more t"an:*,*** deat"s and : million illnesses eac" year & as disease spreadsL “1idespread 2leac"ing from !e;as to

!rinidadX3illed 2road s1at"s of corals& due to a ')degree rise in sea temperatures0 “!"e 1orld is slo1ly disintegrating,&concluded /nuit "unter <oa" Metu5, 1"o lives +* miles from t"e Arctic Circle0 “!"ey call it climate c"angeX2ut 1e -ust call it2rea3ing up0& ?rom t"e founding of t"e first cities some 9,*** years ago until t"e 2eginning of t"e industrial revolution, car2ondio;ide levels in t"e atmosp"ere remained relatively constant at a2out '@* parts per million (ppm.0 At present t"ey are acceleratingto1ard 7** ppm, and 2y '*:* t"ey 1ill reac" :** ppm, a2out dou2le pre)industrial levels0 Unfortunately, atmosp"eric C'lasts a2out a century, so t"ere is no 1ay immediately to reduce levels, only to slo1 t"eir increase, 1e aret"us in for significant glo2al 1armingL t"e only de2ate is "o1 muc" and "o1 serious t"e effects 1ill 2e0 As

t"e ne1spaper stories 5uoted a2ove s"o1, 1e are already e;periencing t"e effects of )' degree 1arming in more violentstorms, spread of disease, mass die offs of plants and animals, species e;tinction, and t"reatened

inundation of lo1)lying countries li3e t"e acific nation of iri2ati and t"e <et"erlands at a 1arming of : degrees or less t"eGreenland and West Antarctic ice s"eets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of '* feet t"at1ould cover <ort" Carolina#s outer 2an3s, s1amp t"e sout"ern t"ird of ?lorida, and inundate Man"attan up to t"e middle of



Green1ic" Iillage0 Anot"er catastrop"ic effect 1ould 2e t"e collapse of t"e Atlantic t"ermo"aline circulationt"at 3eeps t"e 1inter 1eat"er in $urope far 1armer t"an its latitude 1ould ot"er1ise allo10 $conomist WilliamCline once estimated t"e damage to t"e United States alone from moderate levels of 1arming at )9 percent of GD annuallyLsevere 1arming could cost +)'9 percent of GD0 4ut t"e most frig"tening scenario is runa1ay green"ouse1arming, 2ased on positive feed2ac3 from t"e 2uildup of 1ater vapor in t"e atmosp"ere t"at is 2ot"caused 2y and causes "otter surface temperatures0 ast ice age transitions, associated 1it" only :)* degree c"angesin average glo2al temperatures, too3 place in -ust decades, even t"oug" no one 1as t"en pouring ever)increasing amounts of

car2on into t"e atmosp"ere0 ?aced 1it" t"is specter, t"e 2est one can conclude is t"at “"uman3ind#s continuing en"ancementof t"e natural green"ouse effect is a3in to playing Russian roulette 1it" t"e eart"#s climate and "umanity#slife support system0 At 1orst, says p"ysics professor Marty offert of <e1 =or3 University, “1e#re -ust going to 2urneveryt"ing up L 1e#re going to "eat t"e atmosp"ere to t"e temperature it 1as in t"e Cretaceous 1"ent"ere 1ere crocodiles at t"e poles, and t"en everyt"ing 1ill collapse0& During t"e Cold War, astronomer Carl Saganpopularied a t"eory of nuclear 1inter to descri2e "o1 a t"ermonuclear 1ar 2et1een t"e Untied States and t"e Soviet Union 1ouldnot only destroy 2ot" countries 2ut possi2ly end life on t"is planet0 Glo2al 1arming is t"e post)Cold War era#s e5uivalent ofnuclear 1inter at least as serious and considera2ly 2etter supported scientifically0 ver t"e long run it putsdangers from terrorism and traditional military c"allenges to s"ame0 /t is a t"reat not only to t"e security and prosperity

to t"e United States, 2ut potentially to t"e continued e;istence of life on t"is planet 0

Scientific consensus agrees that &arming causes etinctionFlourno 1*

(Citing Dr0 ?eng su, a <ASA scientist at t"e Goddard Space ?lig"t Center and a tec"nology ris3assessment e;pert, Don ?lournoy, "D and MA from t"e University of !e;as, ?ormer Dean of t"eUniversity College "io University, ?ormer Associate Dean State University of <e1 =or3 and Case/nstitute of !ec"nology, ro-ect Manager for UniversityB/ndustry $;periments for t"e <ASA AC!SSatellite, Currently rofessor of !elecommunications Scripps College of Communications "ioUniversity, Citing Dr0 VSolar o1er Satellites,V C"apter ' W"at Are t"e rincipal Sunsat Services andMar3ets%, Eanuary, Springer 4riefs in Space Development, 4oo3.

/n t"e nline Eournal of Space Communication, Dr0 ?eng su , a <ASA scientist at Goddard Space ?lig"t Center, a researc"

center in t"e forefront of science of s+ace and .arth, 1rites, “!"e evidence of glo2al 1arming isalarming,& noting t"e potential for a catastrop"ic planetary climate c"ange is real and trou2ling (su '**.0 suand "is <ASA colleagues 1ere engaged in monitoring and analying cli) mate c"anges on a glo2al scale, t"roug" 1"ic" t"eyreceived first)"and scientific information and data relating to glo2al 1arming issues, including t"e dynamics of polar ice cap melting0

After discussing t"is researc" 1it" colleagues 1"o 1ere 1orld e;perts on t"e su2-ect, "e 1rote 9 no&

have no doubt global tem+eratures are rising, and that global &arming is a serious +roblemconfronting all of humanit0 <o matter 1"et"er t"ese trends are due to "uman interference or to t"e cosmic cycling of our

solar system, t"ere are t1o 2asic facts t"at are crystal clear (a. t"ere is over&helming scientific evidence s"o1ingpositive correlations 2et1een t"e level of C' concentrations in $art"#s atmosp"ere 1it" respect to t"e"istorical fluctuations of glo2al temperature c"angesL and (2. t"e over&helming ma6orit of t"e 1orld#sscientific community is in agreement a2out t"e ris3s of a potential catastrop"ic glo2al climate c"ange0 !"at

is, if 1e "umans continue to ignore t"is pro2lem and do not") ing, if 1e continue dumping "uge 5uantities of green"ouse

gases into $art"#s 2iosp"ere, humanit &ill be at dire ris' (su '**.0 As a tec"nology ris3 assessment e;pert,su says "e can s"o1 1it" some confi) dence t"at the +lanet &ill face more ris' doing nothing to cur2its fossil)2ased energy addictions t"an it 1ill in ma3ing a fundamental s"ift in its energy supply0 “!"is,& "e

1rites, “is 2ecause t"e ris3s of a catastrop"ic ant"ropogenic climate c"ange can 2e potentially the etinction of human s+ecies, a ris3 t"at is simply too "ig" for us to ta3e any c"ances& (su '**.0 /t 1as t"is <ASAscientist#s conclusion t"at "uman3ind must no1 em2ar3 on t"e ne;t era of “sustaina2le energy consumption and re)supply, t"e mosto2vious source of 1"ic" is t"e mig"ty energy resource of our Sun& (su '**. (?ig0 '0.0

9t causes hdrogen sulfide +oisoning$that destros the o3one and causesetinction!

Ward *(eter, "D, professor of 4iology and $art" and Space Sciences at t"e University of Was"ington, paleontologist and <ASAastro2iologist, ?ello1 at t"e California Academy of Sciences, !"e ?looded $art" ur ?uture in a World Wit"out /ce Caps, Eune '>,'**.



/n t"e rest of t"is c"apter / 1ill support a contention t"at 1it"in several millennia (or less. t"e planet 1ill see a c"angeover of t"e oceans from t"eir current “mi;ed& states to somet"ing muc" different and dire0 ceans 1ill 2ecomestratified 2y t"eir o;ygen content and temperature, 1it" 1arm, o;ygen)free 1ater lining t"e ocean 2asins 0 Stratified oceans li3e t"is in t"e past (and t"ey 1ere present for most of $art"#s "istory. "ave al1ays 2een preludes to 2iotic catastrop"e 04ecause t"e continents 1ere in suc" different positions at t"at time, models 1e use today to understand ocean current systems arestill crude 1"en it comes to analying t"e ancient oceans, suc" as t"ose of t"e Devonian or ermian eriods0 4ot" times

1itnessed ma-or mass e;tinctions, and t"ese e;tinctions 1ere some"o1 tied to events in t"e sea 0 =et

catastrop"ic as it 1as, t"e event t"at turned t"e Canning Coral Reef of Devonian age into t"e Canning Micro2ial Reef featured att"e start of t"is c"apter 1as tame compared to t"at ending t"e +** million) to ': million)year)old ermian eriod, and for t"isreason alone t"e ermian ocean and its fate "ave 2een far more studied t"an t"e Devonian0 4ut t"ere is anot"er reason toconcentrate on t"e ermian mass e;tinction it too3 place on a 1orld 1it" a climate more similar to t"at of today t"ananytime in t"e Devonian0 $ven more important, it 1as a 1orld 1it" ice s"eets at t"e poles, somet"ing t"e more tropical Devonianeriod may never "ave 1itnessed0 ?or muc" of t"e ermian eriod, t"e $art", as it does today, "ad a2undantice caps at 2ot" poles, and t"ere 1ere large)scale continental glaciations up until at least '8* million years ago,

and per"aps even later07 4ut from t"en until t"e end of t"e ermian, t"e planet rapidly 1armed , t"e ice capsdisappeared, and t"e deep ocean 2ottoms filled 1it" great volumes of 1arm, virtually o;ygen)freesea1ater0 !"e trigger for disaster 1as a s"ort)term 2ut massive infusion of carbon dioide and ot"er

green"ouse gases into t"e atmosp"ere at t"e end of t"e ermian from t"e spectacular lava outpourings over an apprecia2leportion of 1"at 1ould 2ecome nort"ern Asia0 !"e lava, no1 ancient 2ut still in place, is called t"e “Si2erian !raps,& t"e latter termcoming from t"e Scandinavian for lava flo1s 0 !"e great volcanic event 1as 2ut t"e start of t"ings, and led toc"anges in oceanograp"y0 !"e ultimate 3ill mec"anism seems to "ave 2een a let"al com2ination of rising

temperature, diminis"ing o;ygen, and influ; into 1ater and air of t"e "ig"ly poisonous compound"ydrogen sulfide0 !"e cruel irony is t"at t"is latter poison 1as itself produced 2y life , not 2y t"e volcanoes0 !"e 2ottom line is t"at life produced t"e ultimate 3il ler in t"is and surely ot"er ancient mass e;tinctions 0 !"is

finding 1as one t"at spurred me to propose t"e Medea ypot"esis, and a 2oo3 of t"e same name0: ydrogen sulfidepoisoning mig"t indeed 2e t"e 1orst 2iological effect of glo2al 1arming 0 !"ere is no reason t"at suc" anevent cannot "appen again, given s"ort)term glo2al 1arming0 And 2ecause of t"e 1ay t"e sun ages, itmay 2e t"at suc" events 1ill 2e ever easier to start t"an during t"e deep past 0 o1 does t"e sun get involved in

suc" nasty 2usiness as mass e;tinction% Unli3e a campfire t"at 2urns do1n to em2ers, any star gets ever "otter1"en it is on t"e “main se5uence,& 1"ic" is simply a term used to descri2ed t"e normal aging of a starQsomet"ing li3e t"e

progression 1e all go t"roug" as 1e age0 4ut ne1 1or3 2y Eeff ie"l of t"e University of Colorado s"o1s t"at2ecause t"e sun 3eeps getting 2rig"ter, amounts of C' t"at in t"e past 1ould not "ave triggered t"eprocess result in stagnant oceans filled 1it" 'S)producing micro2es 0 is novel approac" 1as to estimate t"e

glo2al temperature rise to 2e e;pected from car2on dio;ide levels added to t"e energy "itting t"e eart" from t"e sun0 !oo often

1e refer to t"e green"ouse effect as simply a product of t"e gases0 4ut it is sunlig"t t"at actuallyproduces t"e "eat, and t"at amount of energy "itting t"e eart" 3eeps increasing0 e t"en compared t"oseto past times of mass e;tinctions0 !"e surprise is t"at a C' level of ,*** ppm 1ouldQ1it" our currentsolar radiationQma3e our 1orld t"e second "ottest in $art" "istoryQ1"en t"e five "ottest 1ere eac"associated 1it" mass e;tinction 0 /n t"e deep "istory of our planet, t"ere "ave 2een at least five s"ort intervals in 1"ic" t"ema-ority of living species suddenly 1ent e;tinct0 4iologists are used to t"in3ing a2out "o1 environmental pressures slo1ly c"ooset"e organisms most fit for survival t"roug" natural selection, s"aping life on $art" li3e an artist sculpting clay0 o1ever, masse;tinctions are drastic e;amples of natural selection at its most rut"less, 3illing vast num2ers of species at one time in a 1ay "ardlytypical of evolution0 /n t"e >@*s, <o2el rie)1inning p"ysicist Nuis Alvare, and "is son Walter Alvare, first "ypot"esied t"at t"eimpact of comets or asteroids caused t"e mass e;tinctions of t"e past09 Most scientists slo1ly come to accept t"is t"eory ofe;tinction, furt"er supported 2y t"e discovery of a great scar in t"e eart"Qan impact craterQoff t"e coast of Me;ico t"at dates toaround t"e time t"e dinosaurs 1ent e;tinct0 An asteroid pro2a2ly did 3ill off t"e dinosaurs, 2ut t"e causes of t"eremaining four mass e;tinctions are still o2scured 2eneat" t"e accumulated effects of "undreds ofmillions of years, and no one "as found any credi2le evidence of impact craters0 Rat"er t"an comets andasteroids, it no1 appears t"at s"ort)term glo2al 1arming 1as t"e culprit for t"e four ot"er masse;tinctions 0 / detailed t"e 1or3ings of t"ese e;tinctions first in a >>9 Discover magaine article,8 t"en in an cto2er '**9Scientific American article, and finally in my '**8 2oo3, Under a Green S3y0@ /n eac" / considered 1"et"er suc" events could"appen again0 /n my mind, suc" e;tinctions constitute t"e 1orst t"at could "appen to life and t"e eart" as aresult of s"ort)term glo2al 1arming 0 4ut 2efore 1e get to t"at, let us loo3 at t"e 1or3ings of t"ese past events0 !"eevidence at "and lin3s t"e mass e;tinctions 1it" a c"angeover in t"e ocean from o;ygenated to ano;ic 2ottom 1aters0 !"e sourceof t"is 1as a c"ange in 1"ere 2ottom 1aters are formed0 /t appears t"at in suc" events , t"e source of our eart"#s deep 1ater s"ifted from t"e "ig" latitudes to lo1er latitudes, and t"e 3ind of 1ater ma3ing it to t"e ocean 2ottoms 1as differentas 1ell it c"anged from cold, o;ygenated 1ater to 1arm 1ater containing less o;ygen0 !"e result 1as t"ee;tinction of deep)1ater organisms 0 !"us a green"ouse e;tinction is a product of a c"angeover of t"e conveyor)2elt current systems found on $art" any time t"ere is a mar3ed difference in temperatures 2et1een t"e tropics and t"e polar regions0 Net us



summarie t"e steps t"at ma3e green"ouse e;tinction "appen0 ?irst, t"e 1orld 1arms over s"ort intervals due to asudden increase in car2on dio;ide and met"ane, caused initially 2y t"e formation of vast volcanic provinces called flood

2asalts0 !"e 1armer 1orld affects t"e ocean circulation systems and disrupts t"e position of t"e conveyorcurrents0 4ottom 1aters 2egin to "ave 1arm, lo1)o;ygen 1ater dumped into t"em 0 !"e 1armingcontinues, and t"e decrease of e5uator)to)pole temperature differences 2rings ocean 1inds and surfacecurrents to a near standstill0 !"e mi;ing of o;ygenated surface 1aters 1it" t"e deeper and volumetrically increasing lo1) o;ygen 2ottom 1aters lessens, causing ever)s"allo1er 1ater to c"ange from o;ygenated to ano;ic0 ?inally, t"e 2ottom 1atere;ists in dept"s 1"ere lig"t can penetrate, and t"e com2ination of lo1 o;ygen and lig"t allo1s greensulfur 2acteria to e;pand in num2ers, filling t"e lo1)o;ygen s"allo1s0 !"e 2acteria produce to;ic amountsof 'S , 1it" t"e flu; of t"is gas into t"e atmosp"ere occurring at as muc" as ',*** times today#s rates0!"e gas rises into t"e "ig" atmosp"ere, 1"ere it 2rea3s do1n t"e oone layer 0 !"e su2se5uent increasein u ltra v iolet radiation from t"e sun 3ills muc" of t"e p"otosynt"etic green plant p"ytoplan3ton 0 n its 1ay up

into t"e s3y, t"e "ydrogen sulfide also 3ills some plant and animal life, and t"e com2ination of "ig" "eat and"ydrogen sulfide creates a mass e;tinction on land 0> Could t"is "appen again% <o, says one of t"e e;perts 1"o 1ritet"e RealClimate0org We2 site, Gavin Sc"midt, 1"o, it turns out, 1or3s under Eim ansen at t"e <ASA Goddard Space ?lig"t Centernear Was"ington, DC0 / disagreed and c"allenged "im to an online de2ate0 e refused, saying t"at t"e environmental situation isgoing to 2e 2ad enoug" 1it"out resorting to creating a scenario for mass e;tinction0 4ut special pleading "as no place in science0Could it 2e t"at global &arming could lead to the etinction of humanit % !"at prospect cannot 2e discounted0!o pursue t"is 5uestion, let us loo3 at 1"at mig"t 2e t"e most crucial of all systems maintaining "a2ita2ility on lanet $art" t"et"ermo"aline current systems, sometimes called t"e conveyor currents0

9t also acidifies the oceans$the im+act is etinction)omm =4 (Eoe, a ?ello1 at American rogress and is t"e editor of Climate rogress, 1"ic" Ne& or' Times columnist !om ?riedman calledVt"e indispensa2le 2logV and !ime magaine named one of t"e ': “4est 4logs of '**0 /n '**>, )olling Stone put Romm @@ onits list of ** “people 1"o are reinventing America0& Time named "im a “ero of t"e $nvironment and “!"e We2#s most influentialclimate)c"ange 2logger0& Romm 1as acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and rene1a2le energy in >>8,1"ere "e oversa1 6 2illion in RFD, demonstration, and deployment of lo1)car2on tec"nology0 e is a Senior ?ello1 at Americanrogress and "olds a "0D0 in p"ysics from M/!, “/magine a World 1it"out ?is" Deadly ocean acidification Q "ard to deny, "arderto geo)engineer, 2ut not "ard to stop Q is su2-ect of documentary ,& "ttpBBt"in3progress0orgBrommB'**>B*>B*'B'*7:@>Ba)sea)c"ange)imagine)a)1orld)1it"out)fis")ocean)acidification)filmB, AM.

Glo2al 1arming is “capa2le of 1rec3ing t"e marine ecosystem and depriving future generations of t"e"arvest of t"e seas& (see cean dead ones to e;pand, “remain for t"ousands of years&.0 A post on ocean acidification fromt"e ne1 Conservation Na1 ?oundation 2log "as 2roug"t to my attention t"at t"e first documentary on t"e su2-ect, A Sea Change:

/magine a World 1it"out ?is", is coming out0 cean acidification must 2e a core climate message, since it is "ardto deny and im+ervious to t"e delusion t"at geoengineering is t"e silver 2ullet 0 /ndeed, a ma-or '**> study

GRN study, “Sensitivity of ocean acidification to geoengineered climate sta2iliation & (su2s0 re5#d., concluded !"e

results of t"is paper support t"e vie1 t"at climate engineering 1ill not resolve t"e pro2lem of ocean acidification,and t"at t"erefore deep and rapid cuts in C' emissions are li3ely to 2e t"e most effective strategy toavoid environmental damage from future ocean acidification0 /f you 1ant to understand ocean acidification 2etter, see

t"is 44C story, 1"ic" e;plains (an7made +ollution is raising ocean acidit at least 1> times faster than+reviousl thought, a study says0 r see t"is Science magaine study, “$vidence for Up1elling of Corrosive “Acidified& Water

onto t"e Continental S"elf& (su2s0 re5#., 1"ic" found ur results s"o1 for t"e first time t"at a large section of t"e <ort" American continental s"elf is impacted 2y ocean acidification0 t"er continental s"elf regions may also 2e impacted1"ere ant"ropogenic C')enric"ed 1ater is 2eing up1elled onto t"e s"elf0 r listen to t"e Australia#s ARC Centre of $;cellence forCoral Reef Studies, 1"ic" 1arns !"e 1orld#s oceans are 2ecoming more acid, 1it" potentially devastatingconse5uences for corals and t"e marine organisms t"at 2uild reefs and provide muc" of t"e $art"#s2reat"a2le o;ygen0 !"e acidity is caused 2y t"e gradual 2uildup of car2on dio;ide (C'. in t"e

atmosp"ere, dissolving into t"e oceans0 Scientists fear it could 2e let"al for animals 1it" c"al3y s3eletons 1"ic" ma3e upmore t"an a t"ird of t"e planet#s marine life&0 Corals and plan3ton 1it" c"al3y s3eletons are at t"e 2ase of t"emarine food 1e2 0 !"ey rely on sea 1ater saturated 1it" calcium car2onate to form t"eir s3eletons0

o1ever, as acidity intensifies , t"e saturation declines, ma3ing it "arder for t"e animals to form t"eirs3eletal structures (calcify.0 “Analysis of coral cores s"o1s a steady drop in calcification over t"e last '* years,& says rofessorve oeg")Guld2erg of Co$CRS and t"e University of Pueensland0 “!"ere#s not muc" de2ate a2out "o1 it "appens put moreC' into t"e air a2ove and it dissolves into t"e oceans0 “W"en C' levels in t"e atmosp"ere reac" a2out :** parts per million, youput calcification out of 2usiness in t"e oceans0& (Atmosp"eric C' levels are presently +@: ppm, up from +*: in >9*0. /#d li3e to seean analysis of 1"at "appens 1"en you get to @:* to ***h ppm 2ecause t"at is 1"ere 1e#re "eaded (see U0S0 media largelyignores latest 1arning from climate scientists “Recent o2servations confirm “ t"e 1orst)case /CC scenario tra-ectories (or even1orse. are 2eing realised& “& *** ppm.0 !"e CN? post notes Dr0 Eane Nu2c"enco, Administrator of t"e <ational ceanic and



and t"e solutions in"erent in nuclear po1er, t"e only energy source t"at can guarantee us a reasona2lefuture t"at mig"t 2e resistant to C' 1arming0 ere t"e argument returns once again to t"e pro2lem of scale ofnuclear reactors, especially as t"e sie of t"ese reactors is related to t"e 2rief time left to us to get a grip oncalamitous climate c"anges0 !"e 2eginnings of nuclear energy lay in t"e demands of 1ar0 !"e 2attle 2et1een good and evilc"aracteried 2y t"e Second World War gave "urried 2irt" to a discovery t"at "ad t"e in"erent po1er to 2ot" destroy and salvage0!"e po1er to destroy re5uired plutonium on an enormous scale, 1"ic" 1as pro-ected for1ard into t"e post1ar development ofcivilian reactors0 !"e demand for scarce plutonium for t"e 2om2s of t"e cold 1ar defined t"e type of reactors t"at 1ere 2eing

developed0 !"ese 1ere t"e 2reeder reactors, 1"ic" spe1ed out plutonium measured in tons t"at "ad previously 2een availa2le onlyin ounces, and 1ould continue to do so 1"en t"e 1artime need 1as far 2e"ind us0 W"at 1as once precious, rare, and desira2le "as2ecome dangerous nuclear 1aste, and t"e imperfectly perceived scale of t"e 1aste pro2lem "as seriously in"i2ited t"e logicalgro1t" and development of nuclear po1er0 4y some unt"in3a2le universal coincidence, nuclear po1er 2ecameavaila2le to man for 1ar at t"e same time t"at it could prove to 2e t"e solution to man#s greatest peacetimec"allenge0 4ut t"e giga1att nuclear po1er plants t"at emerged from t"e 1ar "ad 1it"in t"em t"e seeds of

t"eir o1n severe limitation0 !"e scale of t"e ris3s, real and imagined, gre1 e;ponentially as t"e scale of energyoutput gre1 only linearly0 !"ese ris3s , some merely perceived, some dangerously real and some financial, "aveconspired to restrict t"e enormous e;pansion of nuclear po1er t"at is needed to 5uic3ly replace our presentconsumption of energy from fossil fuels0 !"e present rate of replacement of fossil 1it" nuclear sources isat a pace t"at &ill have little im+act on ultimately dealing 1it" t"e C' im2alance0 !"is slo1 rate ofc"ange is compounded of pu2lic fears, 2ureaucratic regulatory mec"anisms resistant to novel solutions, and a privatecapital mar3et t"at is una2le to con-ure 1it" t"e imagined and real ris3s of t"e "uge giga1att reactors t"atdominate t"e industry0 /t is a Gordian 3not t"at cannot 2e unraveled 2ut 1"ic" can only 2e cut 2y a

political s1ord t"at, alas, still lac3s t"e edge to do t"e -o20 4y anot"er rare act of cosmic fortuity, t"ere is a parallele;isting nuclear tec"nology t"at, 2arring political interference, is capa2le of addressing t"e scale pro2lemsin"erent in giga1att reactors0 ?rom t"e 2eginning of t"e nuclear era, researc"ers suc" as Wein2erg and Wigner and !eller

developed small, in"erently safe nuclear reactors t"at did not 2reed plutonium0 !"is 1as reason enoug" fort"e military, 2alancing urgent demands on researc" and development 2udgets, to consign t"e concept of “smaller andsafer is 2etter& to dusty s"elves in our national science attic0 !"is 2oo3 "as argued t"at small reactors, t"at

produce a tent" of t"e energy of t"e giants also generate inordinately less of t"e ris3 t"at in"i2its gro1t" of t"eindustry0 Construction of small reactors is a fraction of t"e cost of construction of giga1att reactors0 !"us t"enum2er of years t"at scarce capital is tied up and at ris3 is su2stantial ly reduced0 !"e 2oo3 argues t"at a **MWe reactor@@ is a muc" 2igger "ard1are 2argain t"an a giga1att reactor, 1"ic", from start to output, can cost 6: 2illion0 /t is notonly t"e "ard1are costs t"at contri2ute to t"e devilis" details of ris30 !"e pro2lem is t"e ina2ility of t"e mar3et to accurately or evenappro;imately estimate t"e real cost of t"e capital t"at 1ould 2e tied up for over a decade in a pro-ect t"at, t"roug" tec"nologicaladvancements, could 2e o2solete 2efore it ever -oins t"e grid0

S()7based nuclear +o&er is safe and solves &armingShellenberger 1* (Mic"ael, founder of t"e 4rea3t"roug" /nstitute, graduate of $arl"am College and "olds a mastersdegree in cultural ant"ropology from t"e University of California, Santa Cru, V<e1 <u3es W"y We <eed Radical /nnovation toMa3e <e1 <uclear $nergy C"eapV, Septem2er , "ttpBBt"e2rea3t"roug"0orgBinde;0p"pBprogramsBenergy)and)climateBne1)nu3esB.

Argua2ly, t"e 2iggest impact of ?u3us"ima on t"e nuclear de2ate, ironically, "as 2een to force a gro1ingnum2er of pro)nuclear environmentalists out of t"e closet, including us0 !"e reaction to t"e accident 2y anti)nuclear campaigners and many Western pu2lics put a fine point on the gross mis+erce+tion of ris' thatinforms so much anti7nuclear fear 0 <uclear remains t"e only +roven technolog capa2le of relia2lygenerating ero)car2on energy at a scale t"at can "ave any impact on glo2al 1arming0 Climate c"ange )) and, fort"at matter, t"e enormous present)day "ealt" ris3s associated 1it" 2urning coal, oil, and gas )) simply d1arf any legitimate ris3associated 1it" t"e operation of nuclear po1er plants0 A2out **,*** people die every year due to e;posure to airpollutants from t"e 2urning of coal0 4y contrast, a2out 7,*** people "ave died from nuclear energy )) ever )) almost entirely due to C"erno2yl0 4ut rat"er t"an simply lecturing our fello1 environmentalists a2out t"eir misplaced priorities, and

"o1 profoundly inade5uate present)day rene1a2les are as su2stitutes for fossil energy, 1e 1ould do 2etter to ta3e seriously t"e realo2stacles standing in t"e 1ay of a serious nuclear renaissance0 Many of t"ese o2stacles "ave not"ing to do 1it" t"e fear)mongeringof t"e anti)nuclear movement or, for t"at matter, t"e regulatory "urdles imposed 2y t"e U0S0 <uclear Regulatory Commission andsimilar agencies around t"e 1orld0 As long as nuclear tec" nology is c"aracteried 2y enormous u+front ca+ital costs , it is li3ely to remain -ust a "edge against overdependence on lo1er)cost coal and gas, not t"e 1"olesalereplacement it needs to be to ma3e a serious dent in climate c"ange0 Developing countries need large plants capa2le of2ringing large amounts of ne1 po1er to t"eir fast)gro1ing economies0 4ut t"ey also need po1er to 2e c"eap0 So long as coalremains t"e c"eapest source of electricity in t"e developing 1orld, it is li3ely to remain 3ing0 !"e most 1orrying t"reat to t"efuture of nuclear isnt t"e political fallout from ?u3us"ima )) its economic realit0 $ven as ne1 nuclear plants are 2uilt int"e developing 1orld, old plants are 2eing retired in t"e developed 1orld0 ?or e;ample, Germanys plan to p"ase)out nuclear simply



relies on allo1ing e;isting plants to 2e s"ut do1n 1"en t"ey reac" t"e ends of t"eir lifetime0 Given t"e sie and cost of ne1conventional plants today, t"ose plants are unli3ely to 2e replaced 1it" ne1 ones0 As suc", t"e com2ined political andeconomic constraints associated 1it" current nuclear energy tec"nologies mean t"at nuclear energyss"are of glo2al energy generation is unl i3ely to gro1 in t"e coming decades, as global energ demandis li'el to increase faster than ne& +lants can be de+loed! To move the needle on nuclear energy to t"e point t"at it mig"t actually 2e capa2le of displacing fossil fuels, 1e ll need ne1 nuclear tec"nologies t"at arechea+er and smaller 0 !oday, t"ere are a range of nascent, smaller nuclear po1er plant designs, some of

t"em modifications of t"e current lig"t)1ater reactor tec"nologies used on su2marines, and ot"ers, li3e t"orium fuel and fast 2reederreactors, 1"ic" are 2ased on entirely different nuclear fission tec"nologies0 S maller, m odular r eactor s can be builtmuch faster and chea+er than traditional large7scale nuclear +o&er +lants! <e;t)generation nuclear

reactors are designed to 2e inca+able of melting do1n, produce drastically less radioactive 1aste, ma3eit very difficult or im+ossible to produce 1eapons grade material, use less 1ater, and re5uire lessmaintenance 0 Most of t"ese designs still face su2stantial tec"nical "urdles 2efore t"ey 1ill 2e ready for commercialdemonstration0 !"at means a great deal of researc" and innovation 1ill 2e necessary to ma3e t"ese ne;t generation plants via2leand capa2le of displacing coal and gas0 !"e United States could 2e a leader on developing t"ese tec"nologies,

2ut unfortunately U!S! nuclear +olic remains mostl stuc' in the +ast! Rat"er t"an creating ne1solutions, efforts to restart t"e U0S0 nuclear industry "ave mostly focused on encouraging util ities to 2uild t"e

ne;t generation of large , lig"t)1ater reactors 1it" loan guarantees and various ot"er su2sidies and regulatory

fi;es0 Wit" a fe1 e;ceptions, t"is is largely true else1"ere around t"e 1orld as 1ell0 <uclear "as en-oyed 2ipartisansupport in Congress for more t"an 9* years, 2ut t"e ent"usiasm is running out0 !"e 2ama administration deserves credit foraut"oriing funding for t1o small modular reactors, 1"ic" 1ill 2e 2uilt at t"e Savanna" River site in Sout" Carolina0 4ut a muc"

more s1eeping reform of U0S0 nuclear energy policy is re5uired0 At present, t"e <uclear Regulatory Commission "as littleinstitutional 3no1ledge of anyt"ing ot"er t"an lig"t)1ater reactors and virtually no capa2ility to revie1 or regulate alternative designs0!"is affects nuclear innovation in ot"er countries as 1ell, since t"e <RC remains, despite its many critics, t"e glo2al gold standardfor t"oroug" regulation of nuclear energy0 Most ot"er countries follo1 t"e <RCs lead 1"en it comes to esta2lis"ing ne1 tec"nicaland operational standards for t"e design, construction, and operation of nuclear plants0 W"ats needed no1 is a ne1national commitment to t"e development, testing, demonstration, and early stage commercialiation of a 2road

range of ne1 nuclear tec"nologies )) from muc" smaller lig"t)1ater reactors to ne;t generation ones )) in searc" of a fe1

designs t"at can 2e mass produced and deployed at a significantly lo1er cost t"an current designs0 !"is 1ill re5uire 2ot"

greater pu2lic support for nuclear innovation and an entirel different regulator frame&or' to revie1 and approve

ne1 commercial designs0 /n t"e meantime, developing countries 1ill continue to 2uild traditional, large nuclearpo1er plants0 :ut time is of the essence! <ith the lionEs share of future carbon emissions comingfrom those emerging economic +o&erhouses, the need to develo+ smaller and chea+er designsthat can scale faster is all the more im+ortant! A true nuclear renaissance cant "appen overnig"t0 And it

1ont "appen so long as large and e;pensive lig"t)1ater reactors remain our only option0 4ut in t"e end,

there is no credible +ath to mitigating climate change &ithout a massive global e+ansion ofnuclear energ ! /f you care a2out climate c"ange, not"ing is more important t"an developing t"e nucleartec"nologies 1e 1ill need to get t"at -o2 done0

Plan results in global S() e+orts?massivel reduces emissions!)osner 11Ro2ert Rosner, Step"en Gold2erg, $nergy olicy /nstitute at C"icago, !"e arris Sc"ool of u2lic olicy Studies, <ovem2er '*,SMANN MDUNAR R$AC!RS H$= ! ?U!UR$ <UCN$AR W$R G$<$RA!/< /< !$ U0S0,"ttpsBBepic0sites0uc"icago0eduBsitesBepic0uc"icago0eduBfilesBuploadsB$/CSMRW"iteaper?inalcopy0pdf

As stated earlier, SMRs "ave t"e potential to ac"ieve significant g reen" ouse g as emission reductions0 !"eycould provide alternative 2aseload po1er generation to facilitate t"e retirement of older, smaller, and lessefficient coal generation plants t"at 1ould, ot"er1ise, not 2e good candidates for retrofitting car2on capture

and storage tec"nology0 !"ey could 2e deployed in regions of t"e U0S0 and t"e 1orld t"at "ave lesspotential for ot"er forms of car2on)free electricity, suc" as solar or 1ind energy0 !"ere may 2e tec"nical ormar3et constraints, suc" as pro-ected electricity demand gro1t" and transmission capacity, 1"ic" 1ould support SMR deployment2ut not GW)scale NWRs0 ?rom t"e on)s"ore manufacturing perspective, a 3ey point is t"at t"e manufacturing2ase needed for SMRs can 2e developed domestically0 !"us, 1"ile t"e large commercial NWR industry is see3ing to

transplant portions of its supply c"ain from current foreign sources to t"e U0S0, t"e SMR industry offers t"e potential toesta2lis" a large domestic manufacturing 2ase 2uilding upon already e;isting U0S0 manufacturinginfrastructure and capa2ility, including t"e <aval s"ip2uilding and underutilied domestic nuclearcomponent and e5uipment plants0 !"e study team learned t"at a num2er of sustaina2le domestic -o2s could 2ecreated H t"at is, t"e full panoply of design, manufacturing, supplier, and construction activities H if t"e U0S0 can esta2lis"

https://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf

https://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf



itself as a credi2le and su2stantial designer and manufacturer of SMRs0 W"ile many SMR tec"nologies are 2eing

studied around t"e 1orld, a strong U0S0 commercialiation program can ena2le U0S0 industry to 2e first tomar3et SMRs , t"ere2y serving as a fulcrum for e;port gro1t" as 1ell as a lever in influencing international decisions on deploying 2ot" nuclear reactor and nuclear fuel cycle tec"nology0 A via2le U0S0)centric SMRindustry 1ould ena2le t"e U0S0 to recapture tec"nological leaders"ip in commercial nuclear tec"nology,1"ic" "as 2een lost to suppliers in ?rance, Eapan, orea, Russia, and, no1 rapidly emerging, C"ina0



S%L#.NCContention I is solvenc$

"o" ac2uisition of S()-s ensures ra+id militar ado+tion, commerciali3ation, andU!S! leadershi+

Andres 11Ric"ard Andres, rofessor of <ational Security Strategy at t"e <ational War College and a Senior ?ello1 and $nergy and$nvironmental Security and olicy C"air in t"e Center for Strategic Researc", /nstitute for <ational Strategic Studies, at t"e <ationalDefense University, and anna 4reet, doctoral candidate in t"e Department of olitical Science at !"e Massac"usetts /nstitute of!ec"nology, Small <uclear Reactorsfor Military /nstallationsCapa2ilities, Costs, and!ec"nological /mplications,1110ndu0eduBpressBli2BpdfBStr?orumBS?)'9'0pdf

!"us far, t"is paper "as revie1ed t1o of DD#s most pressing energy vulnera2ilitiesQgrid insecurity and fuel convoysQande;plored "o1 t"ey could 2e addressed 2y small reactors0 We ac3no1ledge t"at t"ere are many uncertainties and ris3s associated1it" t"ese reactors0 n t"e ot"er "and, failing to pursue t"ese tec"nologies raises its o1n set of ris3s for DD,1"ic" 1e revie1 in t"is section first, small reactors may fail to 2e commercialied in t"e United StatesL second, t"edesigns t"at get loc3ed in 2y t"e private mar3et may not 2e optimal for DD#s needsL and t"ird, e;pertise onsmall reactors may 2ecome concentrated in foreign countries0 4y ta3ing a n early “first mover& role in t"esmall reactor mar3et, DD could mitigate t"ese ris3s and secure t"e long)term availa2ility andappropriateness of t"ese tec"nologies for U0S0 military applications0 !"e “Ialley of Deat"0& Given t"e promise t"at

small reactors "old for military installations and mo2ility, DD "as a compelling interest in ensuring t"at t"ey ma3et"e leap from paper to production0 o1ever, if D D does not provide an initial demonstration and mar3et , t"ereis a c"ance t"at t"e U0S0 small reactor industry may never get off the ground 0 !"e leap from t"ela2oratory to t"e mar3etplace is so difficult to 2ridge t"at it is 1idely referred to as t"e “Ialley of Deat"0& Many promising tec"nologies are never commercialied due to a variety of mar3et failuresQ includingtec"nical and financial uncertainties, information asymmetries, capital mar3et imperfections, transaction costs,

and environmental and security e;ternalitiesQ t"at impede financing and early adoption and can loc3 innovativetec"nologies out of t"e mar3etplace0 '@ /n suc" cases, t"e Government can "elp a 1ort"y tec"nology to2ridge t"e Ialley of Deat" 2y accepting t"e first mover costs and demonstrating t"e tec"nology#s scientificand economic via2ility0'> J?!<!$ '> There are numerous actions that the Federal Government couldta'e, suc" as conducting or funding researc" and development, stimulating private investment, demonstrating tec"nology,

mandating adoption, and guaranteeing mar3ets0 (ilitar +rocurement is t"us only one option, 2ut it "as often +laed adecisive role in technolog develo+ment and is li'el to be the catalst for the U!S! sm all r eactor

industr ! See Iernon W0 Ruttan, /s War <ecessary for $conomic Gro1t"% (<e1 =or3 ;ford University ress, '**9.L ira R0?a2riio and David C0 Mo1ery, “!"e ?ederal Role in ?inancing Ma-or /nventions /nformation !ec"nology during t"e ost1areriod,& in ?inancing /nnovation in t"e United States, @8* to t"e resent, ed0 <aomi R0 Namoreau; and ennet" N0 So3oloff(Cam2ridge, MA !"e M/! ress, '**8., '@+H+90K istorically, nuclear po1er "as 2een “t"e most clear)cute;ample 0 0 0 of an important general)purpose tec" nology t"at in t"e a2sence of military and defense related

procurement 1ould not "ave 2een developed at all0&+* Government involvement is li3ely to 2e crucial for innovative, ne;t)generation nuclear tec"nology as 1ell0 Despite t"e 1idespread revival of interest in nuclear energy,

Daniel /ngersoll "as argued t"at radically innovative designs face an up"ill 2attle, as “t"e "ig" capital cost of nuclearplants and t"e painful lessons learned during t"e first nuclear era "ave created a prevailing fear of first)of)a)3ind designs0&+ /n addition, Massac"usetts /nstitute of !ec"nology reports on t"e ?uture of <uclear o1er called for t"eGovernment to provide modest “first mover& assistance to t"e private sector due to several 2arriers t"at"ave "indered t"e nuclear renaissance, suc" as securing "ig" up)front costs of site)2an3ing, gaining <RC certification forne1 tec"nologies, and demonstrating tec"nical via2ility0+' /t is possi2le, of course, t"at small reactors 1ill ac"ievecommercialiation 1it"out DD assistance0 As discussed a2ove, t"ey "ave garnered increasing attention in t"e energy community0Several analysts "ave even argued t"at small reactors could play a 3ey role in t"e second nuclear era, given t"at t"ey may 2e t"eonly reactors 1it"in t"e means of many U0S0 utilities and developing countries0++ o1ever, given t"e tremendous regulatory"urdles and tec" nical and financial uncertainties , it appears far from certain t"at t"e U0S0 small reactorindustry 1ill ta3e off0 /f DD 1ants to ensure t"at small reactors are availa2le in t"e future, t"en it should+ursue a leadershi+ role no& 0 !ec"nological Noc3)in0 A second ris3 is t"at if small reactors do reac" t"emar3et 1it"out DD assistance , t"e designs t"at succeed may not 2e optimal for DD#s applications0

Due to a variety of positive feed2ac3 and increasing returns to adoption (including demonstration effects,

tec"nological interdependence, net1or3 and learning effects, and economies of scale., t"e designs t"at are initiallydeveloped can 2ecome “loc3ed in0&+7 Competing designsQeven if t"ey are superior in some respects or 2etter for

certain mar3et segmentsQ can face 2arriers to entry t"at loc3 t"em out of t"e mar3et0 /f DD 1ants to ensure





t"at its preferred designs are not loc3ed out, t"en it s"ould ta3e a first mover role on small reactors0 /t is fartoo early to gauge 1"et"er t"e private mar3et and DD "ave aligned interests in reactor designs0 n one "and, Matt"e1 4unn andMartin Malin argue t"at 1"at t"e 1orld needs is c"eaper, safer, more secure, and more proliferation)resistant nuclear reactorsLpresuma2ly, many of t"e same 2road 5ualities 1ould 2e favored 2y DD0+: !"ere are many varied mar3et nic"es t"atcould 2e filled 2y small reactors, 2ecause t"ere are many different applications and settings in 1"ic" t"ey can 2e

used, and it is 5uite possi2le t"at some of t"ose nic"es 1ill 2e compati2le 1it" DD#s interests0+9 n t"e ot"er "and, DD may"ave specific needs (transporta2ility, for instance. t"at 1ould not 2e a "ig" priority for any ot"er mar3et

segment0 Moreover, 1"ile DD "as uni5ue tec"nical and organiational capa2ilities t"at could ena2le it to pursue more radicallyinnovative reactor lines, D$ "as indicated t"at it 1ill focus its initial small reactor deployment efforts on NWR designs0+8 9f "%"&ants to ensure that its +referred reactors are develo+ed and available in the future, it should ta'ea leaders"ip role no10 !a3ing a first mover role does not necessarily mean t"at DD 1ould 2e “pic3ing a1inner& among small reactors, as t"e mar3et 1ill pro2a2ly pursue multiple types of small reactors0 <evert"eless, "%"leadershi+ &ould li'el have a +rofound effect on the industr-s timeline and tra6ector 0 Domestic

<uclear $;pertise0 ?rom t"e perspective of larger national security issues, if DD does not catalye t"e small reactorindustry , t"ere is a ris3 t"at e;pertise in small reactors could 2ecome dominated 2y foreign companies0 A'**@ Defense /ntelligence Agency report 1arned t"at t"e United States 1ill 2ecome totally dependent on foreign governments forfuture commercial nuclear po1er unless t"e military acts as t"e prime mover to reinvigorate t"is critical energy tec"nology 1it"small, distri2uted po1er reactors0+@ Several of t"e most prominent small reactor concepts rely on tec"nologiesperfected at ?ederally funded la2oratories and researc" programs, including t"e yperion o1er Module (Nos

Alamos <ational Na2oratory., <uScale (D$)sponsored researc" at regon State University., /R/S (initiated as a D$)sponsoredpro-ect., Small and !ransporta2le Reactor (Na1rence Nivermore <ational Na2oratory., and Small, Sealed, !ransporta2le,

Autonomous Reactor (developed 2y a team including t"e Argonne, Na1rence Nivermore, and Nos Alamos <ational Na2oratories.0o1ever, t"ere are scores of competing designs under development from over a doen countries0 /f DDdoes not act early to support t"e U0S0 small reactor industry, t"ere is a c"ance t"at t"e industry could 2edominated 2y foreign companies0 Along 1it" ot"er negative conse5uences, t"e decline of t"e U0S0 nuclearindustry decreases t"e <RC#s influence on t"e tec"nology t"at supplies t"e 1orld#s rapidly e;pandingdemand for nuclear energy0 Unless U0S0 companies 2egin to reta3e glo2al mar3et s"are, in comingdecades ?rance, C"ina, Sout" orea, and Russia 1ill dictate standards on nuclear reactor relia2il ity,performance, and +roliferation resistance 0

Alternative financing cuts costs and su+ercharges commerciali3ationFit3+atric' 11Ryan ?itpatric3, Senior olicy Advisor for Clean $nergy at !"ird Way, Eos" ?reed, Iice resident for Clean $nergy at !"ird Way,and Mie3e $oyan, Director for <ational Security at !"ird Way, Eune '*, ?ig"ting for /nnovation o1 DoD Can AdvanceClean$nergy !ec"nology000 And W"y /t as !o, content0t"ird1ay0orgBpu2licationsB77B!"irdOWayO/deaO4riefO)

O?ig"tingOforO/nnovation0pdf

!"e DoD "as over 67** 2illion in annual purc"asing po1er, 1"ic" means t"e entagon could provide a siea2lemar3et for ne1 tec" nologies0 This can increase a tec"nology#s scale of production, bringing do&ncosts, and ma'ing the +roduct more li'el to successfully reac" commercial mar3ets 0 Unfortunatel,

many potentially significant clean energy innovations never get to the mar'et+lace, due to a lac' of ca+italduring t"e development and demonstration stages! As a result, technologies that could hel+ themilitar meet its clean energy security and cost goals are being abandoned or co7o+ted b com+etetors li'eChina 2efore t"ey are commercially via2le "ere in t"e U0S0 : focusing its purc"asing po1er on innovativeproducts t"at 1ill "elp meet its energ goals, DoD can provide more secure and cost7effective energy tot"e military Qproducing tremendous long)term savings, 1"ile also bringing potentially revolutionartec" nologies to t"e pu2lic0 Currently, many of t"ese technologies are passed over during t"e +rocurementprocess because of "ig"er u+front costs Qeven if t"ese tec"nologies can reduce life)cycle costs to DoD0 !"eDepartment "as only recently 2egun to consider life)cycle costs and t"e “fully2urdened cost of fuel& (?4C?. 1"en ma3ing ac5uisition

decisions0 o1ever, initial reports from 1it"in DoD suggest t"at t"e met"odology for determining t"e actual ?4C? needs to 2erefined and made more consistent 2efore it can 2e successfully used in t"e ac5uisition process0+' !"e Department s"ould fast)trac3t"is process to 2etter ma;imie ta;payer dollars0 Congressional appropriatorsQ and t"e Congressional 4udget fficeQs"ould alsorecognie t"e savings that can be achieved b +rocuring advanced technologies to +romote "o"-senerg goals, even if t"ese procurements come 1it" "ig"er upfront costs0 $ven if t"e entagon ma3es procurementof emerging clean energy tec"nologies a "ig"er priority, it still faces real road2loc3s in developingrelations"ips 1it" t"e companies t"at ma3e t"em0 Many clean energy innovations are developed 2y small2usinesses or companies t"at "ave no previous e;perience 1or3ing 1it" military procurement officers0Conversely, many procurement officers do not 3no1 t"e clean energy sector and are not incentivied todevelop relations"ips 1it" emerging clean energy companies0 Given t"e sta3es in developing domestic tec"nologies



t"at 1ould "elp reduce costs and improve mission success, t"e entagon s"ould develop a program to encourage a 2etter flo1 ofinformation 2et1een procurement officers and clean energy companiesQespecially small 2usinesses0 Neverage Savings ?rom$fficiency and Alternative ?inancing to ay for /nnovation0 9n an age of government)1ide austerity and tig"t entagon

budgets, current congressional a++ro+riations are simply not sufficient to fund clean energy innovation0 UntilCongress decides to direct additional resources for t"is purpose, t"e "efense Department must leveraget"e money and ot"er tools it alread has to "elp develop clean energy0 !"is can ta3e t1o forms repurposing money t"at 1assaved t"roug" energy efficiency programs for innovation and using alternative met"ods of financing to reduce t"e cost to t"e

entagon of deploying clean energy0 ?or several decades the militar has made modest use alternative financing mechanisms to fund clean energ and efficiency +ro6ects &hen a++ro+riated funds &ere insufficient0 /n a'** report, GA found t"at 1"ile only @ of rene1a2le energy pro-ects on DoD lands used alternative financing, t"ese pro-ectsaccount for @9 of all rene1a2le energy produced on t"e Department#s property0++ !"is indicates t"at alternative financingcan 2e particularly "elpful to DoD in terms of 2ringing larger and more e;pensive pro-ects to fruition0 ne

advanced financing tool availa2le to DoD is t"e energy savings performance contract ($SC.0 !"ese agreements allo1DoD to contract a private firm to ma3e upgrades to a 2uilding or ot"er facility t"at result in energy savings,reducing overall energy costs 1it"out appropriated funds0 !"e firm finances t"e cost, maintenance andoperation of t"ese upgrades and recovers a profit over t"e life of t"e contract0 W"ile mo2ile applicationsconsume 8: of t"e Department#s energy,+7 DoD is only aut"oried to enter an $SC for energy improvements done at stationarysites0 As suc", Congress s"ould allo1 DoD to conduct pilot programs in 1"ic" $SCs are used to en"ance mo2ile components li3eaircraft and ve"icle engines0 !"is could accelerate t"e needed replacement or updating of aging e5uipment and a significantreduction of energy 1it" no upfront cost0 !o ma;imie t"e potential 2enefits of $SCs, DoD s"ould 1or3 1it" t"e Department of$nergy to develop additional training and 2est practices to ensure t"at terms are carefully negotiated and provide 2enefits for t"efederal government t"roug"out t"e term of t"e contract0+: !"is effort could possi2ly 2e ac"ieved t"roug" t"e e;isting memorandum

of understanding 2et1een t"ese t1o departments0+9 !"e entagon s"ould also consider using any long)term savings realied 2yt"ese contracts for ot"er energy purposes, including t"e promotion of innovative tec"nologies to furt"er reduce demand or increasegeneral energy security0 /n addition to $SCs, the Pentagon also can enter into e;tended agreements 1it" utilities to use

DoD land to generate electricity, or for t"e long7term +urchase of energ0 These innovative financingmechanisms, 3no1n respectively as en"anced use leases ($UNs. and po1er purc"ase agreements (As., +rovide avalua2le degree of certainty to t"ird party generators0 /n e;c"ange, t"e "e+artment can leverage its e;isting resourcesQeit"er its land or its purc"asing po1erQto negotiate lo&er electricit rates and dedicated sources of

locallyproduced po1er 1it" its utility partners0 "o" has uni2ue authorit among federal agencies to entere;tended +*)year As, 2ut only for geot"ermal energy pro-ects and only 1it" direct approval from t"eSecretary of Defense0 Again, limiting incentives for clean energy generation to -ust geot"ermal po1er in"i2its t"e tremendous

potential of ot"er clean energy sources to "elp meet DoD#s energy goals0 Congress s"ould consider opening t"isincentive up to ot"er forms of clean energy generation, including t"e production of advanced fuels0 Also, givenprocurement officials# lac3 of familiarity 1it" t"ese e;tended agreements and t"e cum2ersome nature of suc" a "ig")level approvalprocess, t"e uni5ue aut"ority to enter into e;tended +*)year As is very rarely used0+8 DoD s"ould provide officials 1it" additional

policy guidance for using e;tended As and Congress s"ould simplify t"e process 2y allo1ing t"e secretary of eac" service toapprove t"ese contracts0 Congress s"ould also investigate options for encouraging regulated utility mar3ets to permit A use 2yDoD0 ?inally, 1"en entering t"ese agreements, t"e Department s"ould ma3e every effort to promote t"e use of innovative andfledgling tec"nologies in t"e terms of its $UNs and As0 C< C N U S /< The "efense "e+artment is in a uni2ue+osition to foster and de+lo innovation in clean energ technologies0 !"is "as t1o enormous 2enefits forour military it 1ill ma3e our troops and our facilities more secure and i t 1ill reduce t"e amount of money t"e entagon spends onenergy, freeing it up for ot"er mission critical needs0 /f t"e rig"t steps are ta3en 2y Congress and t"e entagon, t"e military 1ill 2ea2le to put its resources to 1or3 developing tec"nologies t"at 1ill lead to a stronger fig"ting force, a safer nation, and a criticalemerging sector of t"e American economy0 The "efense "e+artment has hel+ed give birth to technologiesand ne& economic sectors do3ens of times before0 ?or its o1n sa3e and t"e sa3e of t"e economy, it shouldma'e clean energ innovation its ne&est +riorit 0



*AC



S%L#.NC

S()-s are cost7effective and safe)ingle 1>(Eo"n C0 Ringle of Corvallis is professor emeritus of nuclear engineering at regon State University, “Reintroduction of reactors inUS a ma-or 1in& <ovem2er +, '**, "ttpBBro2ertmayer01ordpress0comB'**BB'Breintroduction)of)reactors)in)us)a)ma-or)1inB.

Sm all nuclear r eactors 1ill pro2a2ly 2e t"e mec"anism t"at usher s in nuclear +o&er-s renaissance inthe U!S0 <uclear plants currently supply a2out '* percent of t"e nation#s electricity and more t"an 8* percent of our car2on)freeenergy0 4ut large nuclear plants c ost 6@ 2illion to 6* 2illion and utilities are "aving second t"oug"ts a2out "o1 to finance t"eseplants0 A small modular reactor (SMR. "as several advantages over t"e conventional ,***)mega1att plant 0 /t ranges in sie

from ': to 7* mega1atts, "ence only costs a2out a tent" as muc" as a large plant 0 '0 /t uses a coo3ie)cutterstandardied design to reduce construction costs and can 2e 2uilt in a factory and s"ipped to t"e site2y truc3, railroad or 2arge0 +0 !"e ma-or parts can 2e 2uilt in U0S0 factories, unli3e some parts for t"e larger

reactors t"at must 2e fa2ricated overseas0 70 4ecause of t"e factory)line production, t"e SMR could 2e 2uilt int"ree years 1it" one)t"ird of t"e 1or3force of a large plant 0 :0 More t"an one SMR could 2e clusteredtoget"er to form a larger po1er plant comple;0 !"is provides versatility in operation, particularly in connection 1it" large1ind farms0 Wit" t"e varia2ility of 1ind, one or more SMRs could 2e run or s"ut do1n to provide a constant 2ase load supply ofelectricity0 90 A cluster of SMRs s"ould 2e very relia2le0 ne unit could 2e ta3en out of service formaintenance or repair 1it"out affecting t"e operation of t"e ot"er units0 And since t"ey are all of a

common design, replacement parts could satisfy all units0 ?rance "as already proved t"e relia2ility of standardiedplants0 At least "alf a doen companies are developing SMRs, including <uScale in regon0 <uScale is American)o1ned and its

7:)mega1att design "as some uni5ue features0 9t is inherentl safe 0 /t could 2e located partially or totally 2elo1ground, and 1it" its natural convection cooling system, it does not rely on an ela2orate system of pumpsand valves to provide safety0 !"ere is no scenario in &hich a loss7of7coolant accident could occur0!ests conducted on a one)t"ird model of t"e <uScale reactor at regon State University "ave confirmed t"e effectiveness of t"iscooling system0 Small reactors "aven#t 2een 2uilt for commercial use since t"e very early days of nuclear po1er development, 1"ent"e very first po1er reactors 1ere of t"is sie0 ?or more t"an :* years, "o1ever, small reactors "ave 2een 2uilt andoperated successfully and safely 2y t"e <avy in su2marines and aircraft carriers0 !"e <uclear RegulatoryCommission anticipates getting applications from t1o to t"ree companies 1it"in t"e ne;t t1o years for approval of SMR designs0$nergy Secretary

Aff solves N)CGlen :utler , Nt0 Col0, '*11, <ot Green $noug", 1110mca)marines0orgBgaetteBnot)green)enoug"

SMRs "ave relatively lo1 plant cost , can replace aging fossil plants, and do not emit green"ouse gasses0 Some are assmall as a “"ot tu2& and can 2e stored underground, dramatically increasing safety and security from terrorist t"reats0':$ncouragingly, in fiscal year '** (?=*. t"e Do$ allocated 6* to t"e U0S0 SMR rogramL in ?=, t"ey#ve re5uested

6+@0> million0 !"is funding is to support t1o main activitiesQpu2licBprivate partners"ips to advance SMR designsand researc" and development and demonstrations0 According to t"e Do$#s 1e2site, one of t"e planned programaccomplis"ments for ?= is to “colla2orate 1it" t"e Department of Defense (DoD. 0 0 0 to assess t"e feasi2ility of SMR designs forenergy resources at DoD installations0&'9 !"e Marine Corps s"ould vigorously see3 t"e opportunity to 2e a DoD entity providing oneplatform for t"is feasi2ility assessment0'8 ?ourt", SMR tec"nology offers t"e Marine Corps anot"er uni5ue means to leadfrom t"e frontQnot -ust of t"e ot"er Services 2ut also of t"e <ation, and even t"e 1orld0'@ !"is potential ete $llis

moment s"ould 2e seied0 !"ere are simple steps 1e could ta3e, and ot"ers stand ready to lead if 1e are not0+* 4ut t"etemptation to “1ait and see & and “let t"e ot"ers do itL t"en 1e#ll adopt it& mentality is not al1ays 2est0 $nergysecurity demands boldness , not timidity0 !o 2e fair, nuclear tec"nology comes 1it" c"allenges, of course, and 1it"5uestions t"at "ave 2een 3ic3ed around for decades0 An April >>* opular Science article as3ed, “<e;t Generation <uclear

ReactorsQDare 1e 2uild t"em%& and included some of t"e same ver2iage "eard in similar discussions today0+ Compliance 1it"<ational $nvironment olicy Act re5uirements necessitates lengt"y and detailed preaction analyses, critical community supportmust 2e earned, and disposal c"allenges remain0 Still, none of t"ese "urdles are insurmounta2le0 =et despite t"e advances insafety, security, and efficiency in recent years, nuclear in t"e energy e5uation remains t"e ne1 “n)1ord& for most military circles0

And despite t"e fact t"at t"e ?=* <ational Defense Aut"oriation Act called on t"e DoD to “conduct a study JofK t"e feasi2ility ofnuclear plants on military installations,& t"e ffice of t"e Secretary of Defense "as yet to fund t"e study0 ?ift", t"e cum2ersome ,2ureaucratic certification process of t"e <uclear Regulatory Commission (<RC., often enoug" to scare a1aypotential entrepreneurs and investors , is not necessaril a road2loc3 to success0 !"e <RC is “responsi2le for

licensing and regulating t"e operation of commercial nuclear po1er plants in t"e United States0& Military installations offeruni5ue platforms t"at could li3ely 2ypass an e;tended certification process0 Wit" established e+ertise and a

http://www.mca-marines.org/gazette/not-green-enough

http://www.mca-marines.org/gazette/not-green-enough



long safety record in nuclear reactor certification, operations, training, and maintenance, t"e <aval <uclear ropulsionrogram comprises t"e civilian and military personnel 1"o 0 0 0 design, 2uild, operate, maintain, and manage t"e nuclear)po1ereds"ips and t"e many facilities t"at support t"e U0S0 nuclear)po1ered naval fleet0&+7 4ypassing t"e <RC and initiating SMRe;perimentation under ADM yman Ric3over#s legacy um2rella of naval reactors could s"orten t"e process to areasona2le level for Marine and naval installations0+:

:arel an &asteTulara' and Totev =11(!"itide-, ffice of Atoms f or eace, and Dr0 !ot-u, Argonne <ational Na2oratory, “/A$A ?ello1s"ip Wor3 Report,& AM.

Reduced spent fuels and 1aste management o2ligation <uclear 1aste and spent fuels are anot"er critical part in nuclear industry0 !"ey are sensitive in posting t"reats to people and environment0 Wit"most designs offer ing longer fuel lifetime and smaller amount of nuclear 1aste and spent fuels, S()s areable to limit obligation in &aste management and s+ent fuels o r even have no s+ent fuel +ool 0



<A)(9NG

Catastro+hic &arming re+s are good$it-s the onl &a to motivate res+onse$their em+irics are attributable to climate denialism

)omm =1* (Eoe Romm is a ?ello1 at American rogress and is t"e editor of Climate rogress, 1"ic" <e1 =or3!imes columnist !om ?riedman called Vt"e indispensa2le 2logV and !ime magaine named one of t"e ':“4est 4logs of '**0 /n '**>, Rolling Stone put Romm @@ on its list of ** “people 1"o are reinventing

America0& !ime named "im a “ero of t"e $nvironment and “!"e We2#s most influential climate)c"ange2logger0& Romm 1as acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and rene1a2le energy in>>8, 1"ere "e oversa1 6 2illion in RFD, demonstration, and deployment of lo1)car2on tec"nology0 eis a Senior ?ello1 at American rogress and "olds a "0D0 in p"ysics from M/!0, 'B'9B'*', “Apocalypse<ot !"e scars, !"e Media And !"e Myt" of Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages# on Climate&,"ttpBBt"in3progress0orgBrommB'*'B*'B'9B7+':79Bapocalypse)not)oscars)media)myt")of)repetition)of)doomsday)messages)on)climateBmore)7+':79.

!"e t1o greatest myt"s a2out glo2al 1arming communications are . constant repetition of doomsdaymessages "as 2een a ma-or, ongoing strategy and '. t"at strategy doesn#t 1or3 and indeed is actuallycounterproductivej !"ese myt"s are so deeply ingrained in t"e environmental and progressive political

community t"at 1"en 1e finally "ad a serious s"ot at a climate 2ill, t"e po1ers t"at 2e decided not tofocus on t"e t"reat posed 2y climate c"ange in any serious fas"ion in t"eir 6'** million communicationseffort (see my 9B* post “Can you solve glo2al 1arming 1it"out tal3ing a2out glo2al 1arming%“.0 !"esemyt"s are so deeply ingrained in t"e mainstream media t"at suc" messaging, 1"en it is tried, is routinelyattac3ed and denounced Q and t"e flimsiest studies are interpreted e;actly 2ac31ards to drive t"eerroneous message "ome (see “Dire straits Media 2lo1s t"e story of UC 4er3eley study on climatemessaging“. !"e only time anyt"ing appro;imating t"is 3ind of messaging Q not “doomsday& 2ut 1"at /#dcall 2lunt, science)2ased messaging t"at also ma3es clear t"e pro2lem is solva2le Q 1as in '**9 and'**8 1it" t"e release of An /nconvenient !rut" (and t"e 7 assessment reports of t"e /ntergovernmentalanel on Climate C"ange and media coverage l i3e t"e April '**9 cover of !ime.0 !"e data suggest t"atstrategy measura2ly moved t"e pu2lic to 2ecome more concerned a2out t"e t"reat posed 2y glo2al1arming (see recent study "ere.0 =ou#d t"in3 it 1ould 2e pretty o2vious t"at t"e pu2lic is not going to 2econcerned a2out an issue unless one e;plains 1"y t"ey s"ould 2e concerned a2out an issue 0 And t"e

social science literature , including t"e vast l iterature on advertising and mar3eting, could not be clearerthat onl re+eated messages have an chance of sin'ing in and moving the needle0 4ecause /dou2t any serious movement of pu2lic opinion or mo2iliation of political action could possi2ly occur untilt"ese myt"s are s"attered, /#ll do a multipart series on t"is su2-ect, featuring pu2lic opinion analysis,5uotes 2y leading e;perts, and t"e latest social science researc"0 Since t"is is scar nig"t, t"oug", itseems appropriate to start 2y loo3ing at 1"at messages t"e pu2lic are e;posed to in popular culture andt"e media0 /t ain#t doomsday0 Puite t"e reverse, climate c"ange "as 2een mostly an invisi2le issue forseveral years and t"e message of conspicuous consumption and 2usiness)as)usual reigns supreme0 !"emotivation for t"is post actually came up 2ecause / received an e)mail from a -ournalist commenting t"att"e “constant repetition of doomsday messages& doesn#t 1or3 as a messaging strategy0 / "ad to demur,for t"e reasons noted a2ove0 4ut it did get me t"in3ing a2out 1"at messages t"e pu2lic are e;posed to,especially as /#ve 2een rus"ing to see t"e movies nominated for 4est icture t"is year0 / am a "uge movie2uff, 2ut as parents of :)year)olds 3no1, it isn#t easy to stay up 1it" t"e latest movies0 !"at said, good

luc3 finding a popular movie in recent years t"at even touc"es on climate c"ange, let alone one a popularone t"at 1ould pass for doomsday messaging0 4est icture nominee !"e !ree of Nife "as 2een 2illed asan environmental movie Q and even s"o1n at environmental film festivals Q 2ut 1"ile it is certainlydepressing, climate)related it ain#t0 /n fact, if t"at is truly someone#s idea of environmental movie, countme out0 !"e closest to a genuine popular climate movie 1as t"e dreadfully unscientific !"e Day After!omorro1, 1"ic" is from '**7 (and argua2ly set 2ac3 t"e messaging effort 2y putting t"e a2surd “glo2alcooling& notion in people#s "eadsj $ven Avatar, t"e most successful movie of all time and “t"e most epicpiece of environmental advocacy ever captured on celluloid,& as one producer put it, omits t"e climatedoomsday message0 ne of my favorite eco)movies, “Wall)$, is an eco)dystopian gem and an anti)consumption movie,& 2ut it isn#t a climate movie0 / 1ill 2e interested to see !"e unger Games, 2ut /#ve



read all + of t"e 2estselling post)apocalyptic young adult novels Q "ey, t"at#s my -o2j Q and t"ey don#t5ualify as climate c"ange doomsday messaging (more on t"at later.0 So, no, t"e movies certainly don#te;pose t"e pu2lic to constant doomsday messages on climate0 ere are t"e 3ey points a2out 1"atrepeated messages t"e American pu2lic is e;posed to !"e 2road American pu2lic is e;posed tovirtually no doomsday messages , let alone constant ones, on climate c"ange in popular culture (!I andt"e movies and even online.0 !"ere is not one single !I s"o1 on any net1or3 devoted to t"is su2-ect,1"ic" is, argua2ly, more conse5uential t"an any ot"er preventa2le issue 1e face0 !"e same goes fort"e ne1s media, 1"ose coverage of climate c"ange "as collapsed (see “<et1or3 <e1s Coverage ofClimate C"ange Collapsed in '*“.0 W"en t"e media do cover climate c"ange in recent years, t"eover1"elming ma-ority of coverage is devoid of any doomsday messages Q and many outlets still feature"ard)core deniers0 Eust imagine 1"at t"e pu2lic#s vie1 of climate 1ould 2e if it got t"e same coverage as ,say, unemployment , t"e "ousing crisis or even t"e deficit % W"en 1as t"e last time you sa1 an“employment denier& 5uoted on !I or in a ne1spaper% !"e pu2lic is e;posed to constant messagespromoting 2usiness as usual and indeed idoliing conspicuous consumption0 See, for instance, “4rea3ing!"e eart" is 2rea3ing X 2ut "o1 a2out t"at Royal Wedding% ur political elite and intelligentsia,including MSM pundits and t"e supposedly “li2eral media& li3e, say, MS<4C, "ardly even tal3 a2outclimate c"ange and 1"en t"ey do, it isn#t doomsday0 /ndeed, t"ere isn#t even a single national columnistfor a ma-or media outlet 1"o 1rites primarily on climate0 Most “li2eral& columnists rarely mention it0 Atleast a 5uarter of t"e pu2lic c"ooses media t"at devote a vast amount of time to t"e notion t"at glo2al1arming is a "oa; and t"at environmentalists are e;tremists and t"at clean energy is a -o3e0 /n t"e MSM,

conservative pundits routinely tras" climate science and moc3 clean energy0 Eust l isten to, say, EoeScar2oroug" on MS<4C#s Morning Eoe moc3 clean energy sometime0 !"e ma-or energy companies2om2ard t"e air1aves 1it" millions and millions of dollars of repetitious pro)fossil)fuel ads0 !"eenvironmentalists spend far, far less money0 As noted a2ove, t"e one time t"ey did run a ma-or campaignto pus" a climate 2ill, t"ey and t"eir political allies including t"e president e;plicitly did <! tal3 muc"a2out climate c"ange, particularly doomsday messaging $nvironmentalists 1"en t"ey do appear inpopular culture, especially !I, are routinely moc3ed0 !"ere is very little mass communication ofdoomsday messages online0 C"ec3 out t"e most popular 1e2sites0 General silence on t"e su2-ect, andagain, 1"at coverage t"ere is ain#t doomsday messaging0 Go to t"e front page of t"e (moderatelytraffic3ed. environmental 1e2sites0 W"ere is t"e doomsday% /f you 1ant to find anyt"ing appro;imatingeven modest, 2lunt, science)2ased messaging 2uilt around t"e scientific literature, intervie1s 1it" actualclimate scientists and a clear statement t"at 1e can solve t"is pro2lem Q 1ell, you#ve all found it, ofcourse, 2ut t"e only people 1"o see it are t"ose 1"o go loo3ing for it0 f course, t"is 2log is not even

aimed at t"e general pu2lic0 ro2a2ly >> of Americans "aven#t even seen one of my "eadlines and>>08 "aven#t read one of my climate science posts0 And Climate rogress is pro2a2ly t"e most 1idelyread, 5uoted, and reposted climate science 2log in t"e 1orld0 Anyone dropping into America fromanot"er country or anot"er planet 1"o started follo1ing popular culture and t"e ne1s t"e 1ay t"eover1"elming ma-ority of Americans do 1ould get t"e distinct impression t"at nobod &ho matters isterribl &orried about climate change0 And, of course, t"ey#d 2e rig"t Q see “!"e failed presidency of4arac3 2ama, art '0& /t is total :S t"at some"o1 t"e American pu2lic has been scared andover&helmed b re+eated doomsda messaging into some sort of climate fatigue0 /f t"e pu2lic#sconcern "as dropped Q and pu2lic opinion analysis suggests it "as dropped several percent (t"oug" is2ouncing 2ac3 a tad. Q t"at is +rimaril due to the conservative media-s disinformation cam+aignimpact on !ea arty conservatives and to t"e treatment of t"is as a nonissue 2y most of t"e rest of t"emedia, intelligentsia and popular culture0

.ven if the &in &e don-t solve 1>>@ of the case our re+s are good?etinction7level ecological re+resentations s+ar' a ne& social ethic and solve the alt!

.+stein and 8hao =4(Ric"ard E0 and =0, Na2oratory of Computational ncology, Department of Medicine, University of ongong, !"e !"reat !"at Dare <ot Spea3 /ts <ameL uman $;tinction, erspectives in 4iology andMedicine Iolume :', <um2er , Winter '**>, Muse.

?inal ends for all species are t"e same, 2ut t"e -ourneys 1ill 2e different0 /f 1e cannot influence t"e end ofour species, can 1e influence t"e -ourney% !o do soQeven in a small 1ayQ1ould 2e a cro1ning



ac"ievement for "uman evolution and give ne1 meaning to t"e term civiliation0 nly 2y elevating t"etopic J$nd age 'K of "uman e;tinction to t"e level of serious professional discourse can 1e 2egin toprepare ourselves for t"e c"allenges t"at lie a"ead 0 !a2le +0 uman !"in3ing Modes Relevant to$;tinction from $go)!"in3 to $co)!"in3 !"e difficulty of t"e re5uired transition s"ould not 2eunderestimated0 !"is is depicted in !a2le + as a painful multistep progression from t"e '*t")centuryp"ilosop"ical norm of $go )!"in3 Qdefined t"erein as a s"ort)term state of mind valuing individual materialself)interest a2ove all ot"er considerationsQto $co)!"in3, in 1"ic" "umans come to adopt a 2roaderGaia)li3e outloo3 on t"emselves as 2ut one part of an infinitely larger reality0 Ma3ing t"is c"ange mustinvolve communicating t"e non)sensationalist message to all glo2al citiens t"at “t"ings are serious& and“1e are in t"is toget"er&Qor, in 2lunter language, t"at t"e road to e;tinction and its related agonies doesindeed lie a"ead 0 Consistent 1it" t"is prospect, t"e ris3s of "uman e;tinctionQand t"e cost)2enefit ofattempting to reduce t"ese ris3sQ"ave 2een 5uantified in a recent so2ering analysis (Mat"eny'**8.0 nce complacency "as 2een s"a3en off and a sense of collective purpose created, t"e 2attleagainst self)see3ing ant"ropocentric "uman instincts 1ill "ave only -ust 2egun0 /t is often said t"at "uman2eings suffer from t"e a2ility to appreciate t"eir o1n mortalityQan e;istential agony t"at "as given rise tot"e great religionsQ 2ut in t"e present age of religious decline, 1e must 2egin to 2ear t"e added 2urdenof anticipating t"e demise of our species0 /ndeed, as argued "ere, t"ere are compelling reasons forencouraging t"is collective mind)s"ift0 ?or in t"e 2est of all possi2le 1orlds, t"e realiation t"at ourspecies "as long)term survival criteria distinct from our s"ort)term tri2al priorities could spar3 a ne1 socialet"ic to upgrade 1"at 1e no1 all too often dismiss as “"uman nature & (!udge >@>.0

The desire to =leave nature alone- is +art of a nostalgic longing for a mthic +ast&ithout human interference

C"aia 0eller 44, faculty mem2er of t"e /nstitute for Social $cology, $cology of $veryday Nife,google2oo3s

$cological a1areness of t"e planet pea3ed in >8' 1"en astronauts first p"otograp"ed t"e planet, revealing t"ic3 furro1s of smogencasing a 2lue and green 2all0 !"e 1orld is dying, 2ecame t"e common cry as t"e planet, personified as Mot"er $art",captured national, sentimental attention0 <ature 2ecame rendered as a victimied 1oman , a Madonna)li3e angel to2e idealied, protected, and saved from societys ina2ili ty to restrain itself0 Decades later, 1e still 1itness popular

e;pressions of t"e desire to protect nature0 As 1e o2serve eac" April on $art" Day, politicians, corporate agents, andenvironmentalists ta3e t"eir annual leap into t"e romantic, ecological drama, 2ecoming eco)3nig"tsready to save "elpless Vlady nature from t"e dragon of "uman irresponsi2ility0 !"e cult of romantic love, 1"ic"

emerged first in t"e t1elft" century poetry of t"e ?renc" trou2adours of Nonguedoc, still provides a cauldron of images andmetap"ors for todays depictions of nature0 Contemporary Western representations of mot"er nature emergedout of t"is Vcult of t"e romanticV tradition 2ased on a dialectic 2et1een an "eroic savior and an ideal lover 0/ndeed, t"e metap"ors and myt"s used to discuss ecological pro2lems often find t"eir origins 1it"in romantic literature0 =et despiteits association 1it" love, romanticism often s"o1s its cool side 1"en it surfaces 1it"in ecological discourse0W"ile often e;pressing a desire to protect mot"er nature, it may ignore t"e social and political struggles of marginalied peoples0 /nparticular, romantic ecology fails to c"allenge t"e ideologies and institutions of social domination t"at legitimie social in-ustice0/nstead of c"allenging institutions and ideologies of domination 1it"in society in general, romantic ecology too often points itss1ord to1ard a2stract dragons suc" as "uman nature, tec" nology, or 1estern civiliation , all of 1"ic"are "eld responsi2le for slaying VNady <ature0Z /n turn, romantic ecology often veils a t"eme of animosityto1ard marginalied groups under a sil3 cloa3 of idealism, protection, and a promise of self)constraint0 /tnot only refuses to ma3e social li2eration a priority, 2ut in some cases, actually "olds t"e oppressedresponsi2le for t"e destruction of t"e natural 1orld0

)e6ecting all instrumentalism 'ills billionsMic"ael :erliner , "0D in "ilosop"y from 4U, 7B@B-J("ttpBB1110aynrand0orgBsiteB<e1s'%page<e1sArticleFid@7*+Fne1sOivOctrl'7:8.

$art" Day approac"es, and 1it" it a grave danger faces man3ind0 !"e danger is not from acid rain, glo2al 1arming, smog,

or t"e logging of rain forests, as environmentalists 1ould "ave us 2elieve0 !"e danger to man3ind is from environmentalism! !"e

fundamental goal of environmentalism is not clean air and clean 1aterL rat"er, it is t"e demolition oftec"nologicalBindustrial civiliation0 $nvironmentalisms goal is not t"e advancement of "uman "ealt", "uman "appiness,and "uman lifeL rat"er, it is a su2"uman 1orld 1"ere VnatureV is 1ors"ipped li3e t"e totem of some primitive religion0 /n a nation

http://www.aynrand.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=8403&news_iv_ctrl=2457

http://www.aynrand.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=8403&news_iv_ctrl=2457



founded on t"e pioneer spirit, environmentalists "ave made VdevelopmentV an evil 1ord0 !"ey in"i2it or pro"i2it t"edevelopment of Alas3an oil, offs"ore drilling, nuclear po1er))and every ot"er practical form of energy0 ousing, commerce, and -o2sare sacrificed to spotted o1ls and snail darters0 Medical researc" is sacrificed to t"e Vrig"tsV of mice0 Nogging is sacrificed to t"eVrig"tsV of trees0 <o instance of t"e progress t"at 2roug"t man out of t"e cave is safe from t"e onslaug"t of t"ose VprotectingV t"eenvironment from man, 1"om t"ey consider a rapist and despoiler 2y "is very essence0 <ature, t"ey insist, "as Vintrinsicvalue,V to 2e revered for its o1n sa3e, irrespective of any 2enefit to man0 As a conse5uence, man is to 2e pro"i2itedfrom using nature for "is o1n ends0 Since nature supposedly "as value and goodness in itself, any "uman action t"at

c"anges t"e environment is necessarily immoral0 f course, environmentalists invo3e t"e doctrine of intrinsic value not against1olves t"at eat s"eep or 2eavers t"at gna1 treesL t"ey invo3e it only against man, only 1"en man 1ants somet"ing0 !"e ideal 1orldof environmentalism is not t1enty)first)century Western civiliationL it is t"e Garden of $den, a 1orld 1it" no "uman intervention innature, a 1orld 1it"out innovation or c"ange, a 1orld 1it"out effort, a 1orld 1"ere survival is some"o1 guaranteed, a 1orld 1"ereman "as mystically merged 1it" t"e Venvironment0V ad t"e environmentalist mentality prevailed in t"e eig"teent" and

nineteent" centuries, 1e 1ould "ave "ad no /ndustrial Revolution, a situation t"at consistent environmentalists 1ould

c"eer))at least t"ose fe1 1"o mig"t "ave managed to survive 1it"out t"e life)saving 2enefits of modernscience and tec"nology0 !"e e;pressed goal of environmentalism is to prevent man from c"anging "is environment, from

intruding on nature0 !"at is 1"y environmentalism is fundamentally anti)man0 /ntrusion is necessary for "uman survival 0nly 2y intrusion can man avoid pestilence and famine0 nly 2y intrusion can man control "is life andpro-ect long)range goals 0 /ntrusion improves t"e environment, if 2y VenvironmentV one means t"e surroundings of man))t"ee;ternal material conditions of "uman life! /ntrusion is a re5uirement of "uman nature0 4ut in t"e environmentalists paean toV<ature,V "uman nature is omitted! ?or environmentalism, t"e VnaturalV 1orld is a 1orld 1it"out man0 Man "as no legitimate needs,2ut trees, ponds, and 2acteria some"o1 do0 !"ey dont mean it% eed t"e 1ords of t"e consistent environmentalists0 V!"e ending oft"e "uman epoc" on $art",V 1rites p"ilosop"er aul !aylor in Respect for <ature A !"eory of $nvironmental $t"ics, V1ould most

li3ely 2e greeted 1it" a "earty Good riddancejV /n a glo1ing revie1 of 4ill Mci22ens !"e $nd of <ature, 2iologist David M0 Gra2er1rites (Nos Angeles !imes, cto2er '>, >@>. Vuman "appiness JisK not as important as a 1ild and "ealt"y planet 0 0 0 0 Until suc"time as omo sapiens s"ould decide to re-oin nature, some of us can only "ope for t"e rig"t virus to come along0V Suc" is t"e na3edessence of environmentalism it mourns t"e deat" of one 1"ale or tree 2ut actually &elcomes the death ofbillions of +eo+le0 A more malevolent, man)"ating p"ilosop"y is unimagina2le0 !"e guiding principle of environmentalism isselfsacrifice, t"e sacrifice of longer lives, "ealt"ier lives, more prosperous lives, more en-oya2le lives, i0e0, t"e sacrifice of "umanlives0 4ut an individual is not 2orn in servitude0 e "as a moral rig"t to live "is o1n life for "is o1n sa3e0 e"as no duty to sacrifice it to t"e needs of ot"ers and certainly not to t"e VneedsV of t"e non"uman0 !o save man3ind fromenvironmentalism, 1"ats needed is not t"e appeasing, compromising approac" of t"ose 1"o urge a V2alanceV 2et1een t"e needsof man and t"e VneedsV of t"e environment0 !o save man3ind re5uires t"e 1"olesale re-ection of environmentalism as "atred ofscience, tec"nology, progress, and "uman life0 !o save man3ind re5uires t"e return to a p"ilosop"y of reason and individualism, ap"ilosop"y t"at ma3es life on eart" possi2le0



/

)ole of the ballot-s to simulate enactment of the +lan ? 'e to decisionma'ingand fairness

0ager , professor of political science H 4ryn Ma1r College, 4*(Carol E0, “Democratiing !ec"nology Citien F State in West German $nergy olitics, >87)>>*& Polity ,Iol0 ':, <o0 , p0 7:)8*.

During t"is p"ase, t"e citien initiative attempted to overcome its defensive posture and im+lement analternative +olitics! !"e strategy of legal and tec"nical c"allenge mig"t delay or even prevent plant construction, 2ut it 1ouldnot 2y itself accomplis" t"e 2roader goal on t"e legitimation dimension, i0e0, democratiation0 /ndeed, it 1or3ed against 2roadparticipation0 !"e activists "ad to find a via2le means of ac"ieving c"ange0 Citiens "ad proved t"ey couldcontri2ute to a substantive +olic discussion0 <o1, some activists turned to the +arliament ar arenaas a possi2le forum for an energ dialogue ! Until no1, parliament "ad 2een conspicuously a2sent as a relevant policy

ma3er, 2ut if parliament could 2e res"aped and activated, citiens 1ould "ave a forum in 1"ic" to address

t"e 2road 5uestions of policy)ma3ing goals and forms0 !"ey 1ould also "ave an institutional lever 1it"1"ic" to pry apart t"e 2ureaucracy and utility0 <one of t"e esta2lis"ed political parties could offer an alternative program0

!"us, local activists met to discuss forming t"eir o1n voting list0 !"ese discussions provo3ed internal dissent0 Many citien

initiative mem2ers o2-ected to t"e idea of forming a political party0 /f t"e pro2lem lay in t"e role of parliament itself,

anot"er political party 1ould not solve it0 n t"e contrary, parliamentary participation 1as li3ely to destroy 1"at political innovationst"e e;traparliamentary movement "ad made0 t"ers argued t"at a political party 1ould give t"e movement aninstitutional platform from 1"ic" to introduce some of t"e grassroots democratic political forms t"e groups "ad

developed0 ?ounding a party as t"e parliamentary arm of t"e citien movement 1ould allo1 t"ese groups toplay a n active, critical role in institutionalied politics, +artici+ating in the +olic debates &hileretaining their outside +ers+ective ! Despite t"e disagreements, t"e Alternative Nist for Democracy and $nvironmentalrotection 4erlin (AN. 1as formed in >8@ and first 1on seats in t"e Nand parliament 1it" 80' percent of t"e vote in >@07+ !"efounders of t"e AN 1ere encouraged 2y t"e success of ne1ly formed local green parties in No1er Sa;ony andam2urg,77 1"ose evolution "ad 2een very similar to t"at of t"e West 4erlin citien move)ment0 !"roug"out t"e ?RG, unpopularadministrative decisions affect)ing local environments, generally in t"e form of state)sponsored indus)trial pro-ects, prompted t"edevelopment of t"e citien initiative and ecology movements0 !"e groups in turn focused constant attention on stateplanning Verrors,V calling into 5uestion not only t"e decisions t"emselves, 2ut also t"e conventionalforms of +olitical decision ma'ing that +roduced them07: Disgruntled citiens increasingly aimed t"eir criti5ue att"e esta2lis"ed political parties, in particular t"e federal SDB ?D coalition, 1"ic" seemed una2le to cope 1it" t"e economic,

social, and political pro2lems of t"e >8*s0 ?anned 2y pu2lications suc" as t"e Clu2 of Romes report, V!"e Nimits to Gro1t",V t"evie1 spread among activists t"at t"e crisis p"enomena 1ere not merely a passing p"ase, 2ut indicated instead Va long)termstructural crisis, 1"ose cause lies in t"e industrial)tec"nocratic gro1t" society itself0V79 As t"ey 2roadened t"eir criti5ue toinclude t"e political sstem as a &hole, many grassroots groups found t"e e;traparliamentary arena too restrictive0

Ni3e many in t"e West 4erlin group, t"ey reasoned t"at t"e necessary c"ange 1ould re5uire a degree of politicalrestructuring t"at could only 2e accomplis"ed t"roug" t"eir direct +artici+ation in +arliamentar+olitics ! GreenBalternative parties and voting lists sprang up nation1ide and 2egan to 1in seats in localassem2lies0 !"e West 4erlin Alternative Nist sa1 itself not as a party, 2ut as t"e parliamentary arm of t"e citien initiative

movement0 ne mem2er e;plains Vt"e starting point for alternative electoral participation 1as simply t"e notion ofac"ieving a greater audience for Jour K o1n ideas and t"us to 1or3 in support of t"e e;traparliamentary movements and

initia)tives,V78 including non)environmentally oriented groups0 !"e AN 1anted to avoid developing structures andfunctions autonomous from t"e citien initiative movement0 Mem2ers ad"ered to a list of principles, suc" as rotation

and t"e imperative mandate, designed to 3eep parliamentarians attac"ed to t"e grassroots0 Alt"oug" t"eir insistence on

grassroots democracy often resulted in intermina2le "eated discussions, t"e participants recognied t"eimportance of e+erimenting &ith ne& forms of decision ma'ing, of not succumbing to t"e same

hierarchical forms t"ey 1ere c"allenging0 Some argued t"at t"e proper role of citien initiative groups 1as not to

represent t"e pu2lic in government, 2ut to mo2ilie ot"er citiens to +artici+ate directl in +olitics themselvesLself)determination 1as t"e aim of t"eir activity07@ nce in parliament, t"e AN proposed esta2lis"mento f a temporaryparliamentaryco mmissiont o studye nergyp olicy,1 "ic"f or t"e first time 1ould dra1 all concernedp articipantst oget"eri n adiscussiono f 2ot" s"ort)termc "oicesa nd long)termg oals of energyp olicy0 Wit" "elp from t"e SD faction, 1"ic" "ad 2een forcedinto t"e opposition 2y its defeat in t"e >@ elections, t1o suc" commissions 1ere created, one in >@')@+ and t"e ot"er in >@7)@:07>! "ese commissionsg ave t"e citien activists t"e forum t"ey soug"t to pus" for moderniationa nd tec"nicali nnovation inenergy policy0 Alt"oug" it "ad scaled do1n t"e proposed ne1 plant, t"e utility "ad produced no plan to upgrade its older, morepolluting facilities or to install desulfuriationd evices0 Wit" proddingf rom t"e energyc ommission, Nand and utility e;perts 2egan to



formulate suc" a plan, as did t"e citien initiative0 4y e;posing administrative failings in a pu2lic setting, and b+roducing a moderniation +lan itself , t"e com2ined citien initiative and AN forced 2ureaucratic aut"orities topus" t"e utility for improvements 0 !"ey also forced t"e aut"orities to consider different tec"nologicalsolutions to West 4erlins energy and environmental pro2lems0 /n t"is 1ay, t"e activists served astec"nological innovators0 /n >@+, t"e first energy commission su2mitted a list of recommendations to t"e Nand parliament1"ic" reflected t"e influence of t"e citien protest movement0 /t emp"asied goals of demand reduction and efficiency, noted t"evalue of e;panded citien participation and urged aut"orities to Vinvestigate more closely t"e positive role citien participation can

play in ac"ieving policy goals0V:* !"e second energy commission 1as created in >@7 to discuss t"e possi2ilities for moderniationand s"utdo1n of old plants and use of ne1, environmentally friendlier and c"eaper tec"nologies for electricity and "eat generation0/ts recommendations strengt"ened t"ose of t"e first commission0: Despite t"e non)2inding nature of t"e commissionsrecommendations, t"e pu2lic discussion of energy policy motivated +olic ma'ers to ta3e stronger positionsin favor of environmental protection0 ///0 Conclusion !"e West 4erlin energy pro-ect eventually cleared all planning "urdles,and construction 2egan in t"e early >@*s0 !"e ne1 plant no1 conforms to t"e increasingly stringent environmental protectionre5uirements of t"e la10 !"e pro-ect 1as delayed, scaled do1n from '** to 9** MW, moved to a neutral location and, unli3e ot"er4$WAG plants, e5uipped 1it" modern desulfuriation devices0 !"at t"e ne1 plant, 1"ic" opened in 1inter >@@)@>, is t"etec"nologically most advanced and environmen)tally sound of 4$WAGs plants is due entirely to t"e long legal 2attle 1it" t"e citieninitiative group, during 1"ic" nearly every aspect of t"e original plans 1as c"anged0 /n addition, t"roug" t"e efforts of t"e

Alter)native Nist ( AN. in parliament, t"e Nand government and 4$WAG formulated a long soug"t moderniation andenvironmental protection plan for all of t"e citys plants0 !"e AN prompted t"e ot"er parliamentary parties tota3e pollution control seriously0 Throughout the F)G, energ +olitics evolved in a similar fashion! As

a2ermas claimed, underlying t"e ob6ections against +articular +ro6ects 1as a reaction against t"eadministrative)economic system in general0 ne aut"or , for e;ample, descri2es t"e emergence of t1o)dimensional protest against nuclear energy !"e resistance against a concrete pro-ect 2ecame understood simul)

taneously as resistance against t"e entire atomic program0 Kuestions of energy planning, of economic gro1t", of

understanding of democrac entered the +icture0 0 0 0 4esides concern for "uman "ealt", for security of conditions for"uman e;istence and protec)tion of nature arose criti5ue of 1"at 1as perceived as undemocratic planning, t"e Vs"oc3V of t"edelayed pu2lic announcement of pro)-ect plans and t"e fear of political decision errors t"at 1ould aggra)vate t"e pro2lem0:' !"ispassage supports a West 4erliners statement t"at t"e citien initiative began &ith a +ro6ect criti2ue and arrived at Systemkritik0:+ / "ave la2eled t"ese t1o aspects of t"e pro2lem t"e pu2lic policy and legitima)tion dimensions0 /n t"e course oft"ese conflicts, t"e legitimation dimen)sion emergd as t"e more important and in many 1ays t"e more pro2)lematic0 arliamentaryolitics /n t"e >8*s, energy politics 2egan to develop in t"e direction ffe de)scri2ed, 1it" 2ureaucrats and protesters avoiding t"eparliamentary c"annels t"roug" 1"ic" t"ey s"ould interact0 !"e citien groups t"em)selves, "o1ever, "ave to a degree reversed t"eslide into irrelevance of parliamentary politics0 Grassroots groups overcame t"eir defensive posture enoug" to 2eginto formulate an alternative politics , based u+on concepts suc" as decision ma'ing t"roug" mutualunderstanding rat"er t"an tec"nical criteria or 2argaining0 !"is ne1 politics re5uired ne1 modes of interaction 1"ic" t"e oldcorporatist or pluralist forms could not provide0 !"roug" t"e formation of greenBalternative parties and voting lists and

t"roug" ne1 parliamentary commissions suc" as t"e t1o descri2ed in t"e case study, some mem2ers of grassrootsgroups attempted to both o+erate &ithin the +olitical sstem and fundamentall change it, torestore the lin' bet&een bureaucrac and citi3enr! arliamentary politics 1as partially revived in t"e eyes of WestGerman grassroots groups as a legitimate realm of citien participation, an outcome t"e t"eory 1ould not predict0 /t is not clear,"o1ever, t"at strengt"ening t"e parliamentary system 1ould 2e a desira2le outcome for everyone0 Many remain s3eptical t"atinstitutions t"at operate as part of t"e VsystemV can offer t"e 3ind of su2stantive participation t"at grass)roots groups 1ant0 !"econstant tension 2et1een institutionalied politics and grassroots action emerged clearly in t"e recent internal de2ate 2et1eenVfundamentalistV and VrealistV 1ings of t"e Greens0 ?undis 1anted to 3eep a firm footing outside t"e realm ofinstitutionalied politics0 !"ey refused to 2argain 1it" t"e more esta2lis"ed parties or to -oin coalitiongovernments0 Realos favored participating in institutionalied politics 1"ile pressing t"eir grassroots agenda0 nly t"is 1ay, t"ey

claimed, 1ould t"ey "ave a c"ance to implement at least some parts of t"eir program0 !"is internal de2ate, 1"ic" "as never2een resolved, can 2e interpreted in different 1ays0 n one "and, t"e tension limits t"e appeal of green and alternative parties tot"e 2roader pu2lic, as t"e Greens poor s"o1ing in t"e Decem2er >>* all)German elections attests0 !"e failure to come toagreement on 2asic issues can 2e vie1ed as a "aard of grass)roots democracy0 !"e Greens, li3e t"e West

4erlin citien initiative, are opposed in principle to forcing one faction to give 1ay to anot"er0 Disunity t"us persists 1it"in t"egroup0 %n the other hand, t"e tension can be understood not as a failure, 2ut as a 3ind of success

grassroots +olitics has not been absorbed into the bureaucrati3ed sstemH it retains its criticaldimension, 2ot" in relation to t"e political system and 1it"in t"e groups t"emselves0 !"e livel de2atestimulated 2y grassroots groups and parties 'ee+s 2uestions of democrac on the +ublic agenda! !ec"nical

De2ate /n West 4erlin, t"e t1o)dimensionality of t"e energy issue forced citien activists to 2ecome both+artici+ants in and critics of the +olic +rocess! /n order to defeat t"e plant, activists engaged intechnical debate! !"ey 1on several decisions in favor of environmental protection, often +roving to 2emore informed t"an 2ureaucratic e;perts t"emselves0 !"e case study demonstrates t"at grassroots groups, far fromimpeding tec"no)logical advancement, can actually serve as tec"nological innovators0 !"e activists role as tec"nical e;perts, 1"ile



it "elped t"em ac"ieve some success on t"e policy dimension, "ad mi;ed results on t"e legitimation dimension0 n one "and, it"elped t"em to c"allenge t"e legitimacy of tec"nocratic policy ma3ing0 !"ey turned 2ac3 t"e Nand

governments attempts to displace political pro2lems 2y formulating t"em in tec"nical terms0:7 4ydemonstrating t"e falli2ility of t"e tec"nical arguments, activists forced aut"orities to ac3no1ledge t"atenergy demand 1as a political varia2le, 1"ose value at any one point 1as as muc" influenced 2y t"e c"oices ofpolicy ma3ers as 2y independent tec"nical criteria0 Su2mission to t"e form and language of tec"nical de2ate, "o1ever,1ea3ened activists attempts to introduce an alternative, goal)oriented form of decision ma3ing into t"e political system0 !"ose

1is"ing to par)ticipate in energy politics on a long)term 2asis "ave "ad to accede to t"e language of 2ureaucratic discussion, if nott"e legitimacy of 2ureaucratic aut"orities0 !"ey "ave "elped 2rea3 do1n 2ureaucratic aut"ority 2ut "ave not yet offered a via2lelong)term alternative to 2ureaucracy0 /n t"e tension 2et1een form and language, goals and procedure, t"e legitima)tion issuepersists0 At the ver least, "o1ever, grassroots action c"allenges critical t"eorys notion t"at tec"nicaldiscussion is inimical to democratic politics0:: Citi3en grou+s have raised the +ossibilit of a dialoguethat is both technicall so+histicated and democratic! /n sum, alt"oug" t"e legitimation pro2lems 1"ic" gave rise

to grass)roots protest "ave not 2een resolved, citien action "as 1or3ed to counter t"e marginaliation ofparliamentary politics and t"e tec"nocratic c"aracter of policy de2ate t"at ffe and a2ermas identify0 !"e West

4erlin case suggests t"at t"e solutions to current legitimation pro2lems may not re5uire total repudiation of t"oset"ings previously associated 1it" tec"nocracy 0:9 /n 4erlin, t"e citien initiative and AN continue to searc" for ne1, morelegitimate forms of organiation consistent 1it" t"eir principles0 <o permanent Nand parliamentary 2ody e;ists to coordinate andcon)solidate energy policy ma3ing0:8 /n t"e >@> Nand elections, t"e CDUB ?D coalition 1as defeated, and t"e AN formed agoverning coalition 1it" t"e SD0 /n late >>*, "o1ever, t"e AN 1it"dre1 from t"e coali)tion0 /t remains to 2e seen 1"et"er t"e AN1ill remain an effective ve"i)cle for grassroots concerns, and 1"et"er t"e citienry itself, no1 includ)ing t"e former $ast 4erliners,1ill remain active enoug" to give t"e AN direction as united 4erlin faces t"e formida2le c"allenges of t"e >>*s0 n t"e policydimension, grassroots groups ac"ieved some success0 n t"e legitimation dimension, it is difficult to -udge t"e results of grass)rootsactivism 2y normal standards of efficacy or success0 Activists "ave certainly not radically restructured politics0 !"ey agree t"atdemocracy is desira2le, 2ut trou2lesome 5uestions persist a2out t"e degree to 1"ic" t"ose processes t"at are no1 2ureaucraticallyorganied can and s"ould 2e restructured, 1"ere grassroots democracy is possi2le and 1"ere 2ureaucracy is necessary in order toget t"ings done0 /n ot"er 1ords, grassroots groups "ave tried to remedy t"e We2erian pro2lem of t"e marginaliation of politics, 2utit is not yet clear 1"at t"e 2oundaries of t"e political realm s"ould 2e0 /t is, "o1ever, t"e act of calling e;isting 2oundariesinto 5uestion t"at 3eeps democracy vital0 /n raising alternative possi2ilities and encouraging citiens tota3e an active, critical role in t"eir o1n governance, t"e contribution of grassroots environmental grou+shas been significant! As Melucci states for ne1 social movements in general, t"ese groups mount a Vsym2olicVc"allenge 2y proposing Va different 1ay of perceiving and naming t"e 1orld0V:@ Roc"on concurs for t"e case of

t"e West German peace movement, noting t"at its effect on t"e pu2lic discussion of secur)ity issues has beentremendous0:> !"e effects of t"e legitimation issue in t"e ?RG are evident in increased citien interest in areasformerly left to tec"nical e;perts0 Citiens "ave formed nation1ide associations of environmental andot"er grassroots groups as 1ell as alternative and green parties at all levels of government0 !"e level of

information 1it"in t"e groups is generally 5uite "ig", and t"eir participation, especially in local politics, "asraised t"e a1areness and engagement of t"e general populace noticea2ly09* Polic concessions and ne1

legal provisions for citien participation have not 2uelled grassroots action! !"e attem+ts of t"e established

political +arties to coo+t green issues have also met &ith limited success ! $ven green parties t"emselves

"ave not tapped t"e full potential of pu2lic support for t"ese issues0 !"e persistence of legitima)tion concerns, along 1it" t"e

gro1t" of a culture of informed political activism, 1ill ensure t"at t"e searc" continues for a space for a deli2era)

tive politics in modern tec"nological society09

Nuclear technocrac-s 'e to solveNordhaus 11, c"airman H 4rea3t"roug" /nstiute, and S"ellen2erger, president H 4rea3t"roug"/nsitute, MA cultural ant"ropology H University of California, Santa Cru, 'B':B(!ed and Mic"ael, "ttpBBt"e2rea3t"roug"0orgBarc"iveBt"eOlongOdeat"OofOenvironmenta.

!ent", 1e are going to "ave to get over our suspicion of tec"nology, es+eciall nuclear +o&er! !"ere isno credible +ath to reducing glo2al car2on emissions 1it"out an enormous e;pansion of nuclear po1er0 /t is t"eonly lo1 car2on tec"nology 1e "ave today 1it" t"e demonstrated capa2ility to generate large 5uantities of centrally generated electrtic po1er0 /t is t"e lo1 car2on of tec"nology of c"oice for muc" of t"e rest of t"e 1orld0 $ven u2er)greennations, li3e Germany and S1eden, "ave reversed plans to p"ase out nuclear po1er as t"ey "ave 2egun to reconcile t"eir energyneeds 1it" t"eir climate commitments0 $levent", &e &ill need to embrace again the role of the state as a directprovider of pu2lic goods0 !"e modern environmental movement, 2orne of t"e ne1 left re-ection of social aut"ority of all sorts, "asem2raced t"e notion of state regulation and even creation of private mar3ets 1"ile largely re-ecting t"e generative role of t"e state0/n t"e modern environmental imagination, government promotion of tec"nology ) 1"et"er nuclear po1er, t"e

green revolution, synfuels, or et"anol ) almost al1ays ends 2adly0 <ever mind t"at virtually t"e entire histor of

http://thebreakthrough.org/archive/the_long_death_of_environmenta

http://thebreakthrough.org/archive/the_long_death_of_environmenta



American industrialiation and tec"nological innovation is t"e story of government investments in t"edevelopment and commercialiation of ne1 tec"nologies0 !"in3 of a transformative tec"nology over t"e last

century ) computers, t"e /nternet, p"armaceutical drugs, -et tur2ines, cellular telep"ones, nuclear po1er ) and 1"at you 1ill findis government investing in t"ose tec"nologies at a scale t"at private firms simply cannot replicate0 !1elvet", 2ig is

2eautiful0 !"e rising economies of t"e developing 1orld 1ill continue to develop &hether &e &ant them to ornot! !"e solution to t"e ecological crises 1roug"t 2y modernity, tec"nology, and progress 1ill 2e more modernity,

tec"nology, and progress0 !"e solutions to t"e ecological c"allenges faced 2y a planet of 9 2illion going on > 2illion &ill notbe decentrali3ed energ tec"nologies li3e solar panels, small scale organic agriculture, and a dra1ing ofunenforcea2le 2oundaries around 1"at remains of our ecological in"eritance, 2e it t"e rainforests of t"e Amaon or t"e c"emicalcomposition of t"e atmosp"ere0 Rat"er, t"ese solutions 1ill 2e large central station po1er tec"nologies t"at canmeet t"e energy needs of 2illions of people increasingly living in t"e dense mega)cities of t"e glo2al sout" 1it"out emitting car2on dio;ide, furt"er intensification of industrial scale agriculture to meet t"e nutritional needs of a population t"atis not only gro1ing 2ut eating "ig"er up t"e food c"ain, and a 1"ole suite of ne1 agricultural, desaliniation and ot"ertec"nologies for gardening planet $art" t"at mig"t allo1 us not only to pull 2ac3 from forests and ot"er t"reatened ecosystems

2ut also to create ne1 ones0 !"e <e1 $cological olitics !"e great ecological c"allenges t"at our generation faces

demands an ecological politics t"at is generative, not restrictive 0 An ecological politics capa2le ofaddressing glo2al 1arming 1ill re5uire us to ree;amine virtually every prominent strand of post)1ar greenideology0 ?rom aul $rlic"s 1arnings of a population 2om2 to !"e Clu2 of Romes VNimits to Gro1t",V contemporary ecological

politics "ave consistently em2raced green Malt"usianism despite t"e fact t"at t"e Malt"usian premise "as persistentlyfailed for t"e 2etter part of t"ree centuries0 /ndeed, t"e green revolution 1as e;ponentially increasing agricultural yields at

t"e very moment t"at $rlic" 1as predicting mass starvation and t"e serial predictions of pea3 oil and various ot"ers resourcecollapses t"at "ave follo1ed "ave continue to fail0 !"is does not mean t"at Malt"usian outcomes are impossi2le, 2ut neit"er aret"ey inevita2le0 <e do have a choice in t"e matter, 2ut it is not t"e c"oice t"at greens "ave long imagined0!"e c"oice t"at "umanity faces is not 1"et"er to constrain our gro1t", development, and aspirations or die0 /t is1"et"er 1e 1ill continue to innovate and accelerate tec"nological progress in order to t"rive0 uman

technolog and ingenuit have re+eatedl confounded (althusian +redictions yet green ideologycontinues to cast a suspect eye to1ards t"e very tec"nologies t"at "ave allo1ed us to avoid resource andecological catastrop"es0 4ut suc" solutions 1ill re5uire environmentalists to a2andon t"e Vsmall is 2eautifulV et"ic t"at "asalso c"aracteried environmental t"oug"t since t"e >9*s0 We, t"e most secure, affluent, and t"oroug"ly modern "uman 2eings to"ave ever lived upon t"e planet, must a2andon 2ot" t"e dar3, ero)sum Malt"usian visions and t"e idealied and nostalgic fantasiesfor a simpler, more 2ucolic past in 1"ic" "umans lived in "armony 1it" <ature0

Permutation$do the +lan and de+lo the alternative &ithout re6ecting the 1AC$+rag good

(inteer , uman Dimensions of 4iology ?aculty H Sc"ool of Nife Sciences Ariona State University,=;(4en, “$nvironmental "ilosop"y and t"e u2lic /nterest A ragmatic Reconciliation,& Environmental Values 7, p0 +8H9*.

!"is call for revisiting and ret"in3ing t"e p"ilosop"ical roots of Western culture , 1"ic" for W"ite 1ere t"e tec"no)

scientific 1orldvie1 and its underlying religious and secular foundations in t"e medieval period, implied not"ing less t"an anoverhaul of t"e tradition, a foundation7ra3ing process in 1"ic" a ne1 p"ilosop"y of science, tec"nology, and nature H

and per"aps a ne1, less arrogant relations"ip to t"e natural 1orld H 1ould 2e uneart"ed and a2sor2ed into t"emodern 1orldvie10 $arly environmental p"ilosop"ers suc" as Routley and Rolston, t"en, apparently follo1ing W"ite in t"eir call for ane1 et"ic a2le to account for t"e independent value of t"e natural 1orld, assumed t"at t"e ant"ropocentric 1orldvie1 (and itsdestructive instrumentalisation of nature. "ad to 2e replaced 1it" a ne1, nonant"ropocentric outloo30 ere, W"ite s t"esis a2out t"eʼ

anti)environmental implications of t"e Eudeo)C"ristian religion, particularly "is s1eeping claim t"at t"e latter 1as t"e mostʻ

ant"ropocentric religion t"e 1orld "as seen , offered a point of departure for environmental p"ilosop"ers, 1"o 1ould respond inʼ

su2se5uent years 1it" a series of influential criticisms of t"e moral "umanism of t"e Western p"ilosop"ical in"eritance (e0g0, !aylor>@9, Rolston >@@, Callicott >@>, Westra >>7, at >>9.0 As t"e field matured in t"e >@*s and >>*s, an e;clusivist non)

ant"ropocentric agenda esta2lis"ed itself as t"e dominant approac" in t"e f ield, 1it" a fe1 nota2le e;ceptions(of t"e latter, see <orton >@7, >>L Weston >@:, and Stone >@8.0 !"e result of t"ese developments is t"at t"e pu2lic interest

never 2ecame part of t"e agenda of environmental p"ilosop"y in t"e same 1ay, for e;ample, t"at it appears to "avemade lasting impressions in ot"er 2ranc"es of applied p"ilosop"y suc" as 2usiness, engineering, and 2iomedical et"ics0Concerned 1it" &hat it +erceived to be more +ressing and fundamental 2uestions of moral ontolog H

t"at is, 1it" t"e nature of environmental values and t"e moral standing of non"uman nature H environmental p"ilosop"ers

pursued 5uestions selfconsciously cordoned off from +arallel discussions in mainstream moral and politicalt"eory, 1"ic" 1ere apparently deemed too ant"ropocentric to inform a p"ilosop"ical field preoccupied 1it" t"e separate

issue of t"e moral considera2ility and significance of non"uman nature0 As a conse5uence, instead of (for e;ample.



+roviding a conceptual or analytic frame&or' for evaluating cases, practices, and +olicies from t"e perspective of

ostensi2ly "uman)centred concepts suc" as t"e pu2lic interest, manyʻ ʼ environmental p"ilosop"ers preferred to focuse;clusively on t"e independent status of natural values0 / 1ould argue t"at t"is original failure to lin3 environmentalvalues and claims to recognised moral and political concerns also hel+s to e+lain t"e relative inabilit ofenvironmental +hiloso+h to have a significant im+act &ithin +ublic and +rivate institutions over t"e

years, again, especially 1"en compared 1it" ot"er applied et"ics counterparts0 $nvironmental p"ilosop"y is and al1ays

"as 2een concerned 1it" nature s interest , not t"at of t"e pu2lic0ʻ ʼ ʼ !"is situation "as also produced a num2er of unfortunateconse5uences for t"e contri2ution of environmental p"ilosop"y to +olic discussion and debate , not tomention more concrete and on)t"e)ground forms of social action ! ne e;ample "ere is t"e largely missedopportunity for p"ilosop"ers to study and contri2ute to some of t"e more important environmental reformmovements and institutional initiatives of t"e past t"ree decades0 C"ief among t"ese developments, per"aps, is t"epu2lic interest movement t"at developed alongside environmental et"ics in t"e late >9*s and early >8*s, 1"ic" united

consumer protection 1it" environmental advocacy t"roug" organisations li3e Ralp" <ader s u2lic /nterest Researc"ʼ

Groups (/RGs.0 !"is list of emerging direct)action environmental movements 1ould also "ave to include t"e gro1ing num2er of

grassroots organisations and groups, commonly lumped under t"e environmental -ustice 2anner, 1"ic" "ave soug"t toʻ ʼ

lin3 t"e concerns of pu2lic "ealt", safety, and community 1ell)2eing to environmental protection t"roug" t"e language and tactics ofsocial -ustice and civil rig"ts (Gottlie2 >>+, S"ut3in '***, S"rader)?rec"ette '**'.0 ad environmental p"ilosop"y 1or3eda serious notion of t"e pu2lic interest into its agenda, it dou2tless 1ould "ave 2een (and 1ould no1 2e. muc"more engaged 1it" t"ese influential movements in citien environmental action, not to mention a range ofdiscussions in areas suc" as ris3 communication, pollution prevention and regulatory reform, pu2lic

understanding of science, and so on0

%ntolog is irrelevant 7 *;>> ears of em+iricsS&etle 4"ttpBBedoc0u20uni)muenc"en0deB+8BBS1etlyOWalter0pdf Metaontological S3epticism /naugural)Dissertation ur $rlangung des Do3torgrades der "ilosop"ie an der Nud1igs)Ma;imilians)UniversitktMnc"en vorgelegt von Walter S1etly

o1 can it 2e t"at p"ilosop"ers "aven#t made any progress in ontology for *;>> ears % W"y do 1e stillnot 3no1 1"et"er t"ere are a2stract o2-ects% W"y is it t"at no rational consensus "as 2een secured overany su2stantial proposition a2out 1"at t"ere is% Metaontological s3epticism yields an ans1er to t"ese5uestions0 !"e ans1er is pessimistic0 ntology is not a legitimate p"ilosop"ical discipline 0 !"erefore it is

no 1onder t"at 1e "aven#t made any progress in ontology for suc" a long time and t"at no rationalconsensus "as ever 2een secured over any su2stantial, foundational proposition a2out 1"at t"ere is0W"en 1e are engaging in ontology , 1e are engaging in an illegitimate discipline 0

Kuantifier variance ? ontological argument is 6ust linguistic +osturing that +ragresolves

0irsch * Article PUA<!/?/$R IAR/A<C$ A<D R$AN/SM Aut"or irsc", $li Eournal "ilosop"ical issues /SS<:++)9*88 Date *B'**' Iolume ' /ssue age : D/ *0B-08:@)''+80'**'0t2***90;

/ t"in3 its clear t"at utnams use of VVmetap"ysical realismV "as sometimes 2een confusing0 / t"in3 "euses t"is term as t"e name of a certain attitude in metap"ysics as muc" as t"e name of a definitep"ilosop"ical position) !o t"e e;tent t"at t"ere is a position it is t"e denial of even t"e possi2ility of5uantifier variance0 Metap"ysical realism says t"at t"ere is some"o1 one metap"ysically privileged senseof t"e 5uantifier, t"at any departure from t"is privileged sense 1ould leave us 1it"out ade5uate resourcesto state t"e trut" properly0 !"ere is0 so to spea3, t"e 5uantifier t"at God 1ould use0 and to get t"ingsmetap"ysically rig"t, t"ats t"e 5uantifier 1e "ave to use0 / !"in3 it is clear, "o1ever0 t"at most people1"om utnam 1ould call metap"ysical realists "ave never "eard of 5uantifier variance, and 1ould notreadily ac3no1ledge t"at t"ey "ave any special vie1s a2out t"e necessity to use one 3ind of 5uantifierrat"er t"an anot"er0 /ts t"eir attitude 1"en t"ey p"ilosop"ie t"at suggests t"at t"ey tacitly deny t"epossi2ility of 5uantifier variance0 W"at is t"e nature of t"is attitude% utnam "as c"aracteried it invarious 1ays t"roug"out "is 1ritings, 2ut / 1ould li3e to put it as follo1s these +hiloso+hers argue too

http://edoc.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11317/1/Swetly_Walter.pdf

http://edoc.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11317/1/Swetly_Walter.pdf



much0 !"ey descend upon us as a legion of ontological la&ers, t"eir 2riefcases overflo1ing 1it"numerous arguments and counterarguments, a case for one entity, a case against anot"er0 Puestionst"at appear to 2e trivia l 2eyond t"e pale of conversation are some"o1 converted 2y t"em into occasionsfor deep t"eoretical de2ate0 VMetap"ysical realistsV are afflicted 1it" a 3ind of "yper)t"eore"calness0 /1ould certainly not claim t"at t"ere is an inevita2le connection 2et1een t"is affliction and t"e issue of5uantifier variance, 2ut / t"in3 t"at in many cases a potentially "elpful diagnosis of t"e affliction 1ould 2eroug"ly as follo1s /f 1"enever you ma3e an e;istential claim in metap"ysics you are tacitly orunconsciously assuming t"at die claim "as to 2e couc"ed in terms of a 5uantificanonal apparatus t"at isin some sense t"e uni5uely rig"t oneQt"e one t"at God 1ould useQt"en t"is assumption is li3ely to leadyou to funle and intermina2le pseudot"eorencal arguments 0 /n "is discussion of mereology utnamimplies t"at t"e proper remedy for t"e "yper)t"eoreticalness of Vmetap"ysical realismV is Camapiantolerance0 / am suggesting t"at anot"er remedy is Vordinary language p"ilosop"y VV or an appeal tocommon sense0 $ac" of t"ese t1o remedies is appropriate in different cases0 Carnapian tolerance isappropriate 1"ere an e;istennal sentence 2eing disputed 2y p"ilosop"ers is actually vague or am2iguousin plain $nglis" lor 1"atever natural language t"e p"ilosop"ers are spea3ing., and eac" disputant "as ineffect 2ecome attac"ed to one permissi2le inteipretation of t"e sentence0 /n t"is 3ind of case once t"edisputants realie t"at t"e 5uantifier admits of relevantly different interpretations in t"eir language t"eys"ould eac" sayQ t"ere2y e;"i2iting Camapian toleranceQthat both of them are right, ta3ing t"e5uantifier m die relevantly different meanings0 4ut t"ere are ot"er casesQand / t"in3 t"e case ofmereology is an e;ampleQin 1"ic" t"e disputed sentence admits of only one relevant meaning in plain

$nglis", and one of t"e disputants is saying somet"ing t"atQinterpreted in plain $nglis"Qis triviallya2surd W"at may prevent t"is disputant from simply ac5uiescing to ordinary usage and common sense ist"e implicit assumption t"at any 5uesnon of ontology must 2e "ig"ly t"eoretical, 2ecause any suc"5uestion turns on "o1 to descri2e t"e 1orld in terms of t"e metap"ysically privileged sense of t"e5uantifier0 %nce the +ossibilit of 2uantifier variance is acce+ted, and t"e notion of a metap"ysicallyprivileged 5uantifier is a2andoned, t"ere is not"ing to in"i2it us from simply e;pressing t"e trivialcommon sense truth in terms of t"e 5uantifier 1e actually "ave in our language0 /n t"ese 3mds ofe;amples ac3no1ledging 5uantifier variance leads not to C araapian tolerance 2ut rat"er to thecommon7sense +hiloso+herEs ridicule of needless +hiloso+hical +arado !

Nuclear &ar out&eighs ? their inter+retation denies an value to the natural &orld(acaule 4M professor of p"ilosp"y and environmental science at enn State University, (DavidMacauley, Minding <ature !"e p"ilosop"ers of ecology, p0 87.

We may approac" t"e issue of 1"at eidegger may teac" today#s radical environmentalists 2y e;aminingan issue a2out 1"ic" t"ey and eidegger 1ould profoundly disagree0 eidegger claimed t"at t"ere is agreater danger t"an t"e destruction of all life on eart" 2y nuclear 1ar07* ?or radical environmentalists, it is"ard to imagine anyt"ing more dangerous t"an t"e total destruction of t"e 2iosp"erej eidegger argued,"o1ever, t"at 1orse t"an suc" anni"ilation 1ould "e t"e totally tec"nologied 1orld in 1"ic" material“"appiness& for everyone is ac"ieved, 2ut in 1"ic" "umanity 1ould 2e left 1it" a radically constrictedcapacity for encountering t"e 2eing of entities0 !"is apparently e;or2itant claim may 2e partially mitigated2y t"e follo1ing consideration0 /f "uman e;istence lost all relations"ip to transcendent 2eing, entitiescould no longer s"o1 t"emselves at all, and in t"is sense 1ould no longer “2e0& W"o needs nuclear 1ar,eidegger as3ed r"etorically, if entities "ave already ceased to 2e% ?or many environmentalists, suc" a5uestion reveals t"e e;tent to 1"ic" eidegger remained part of t"e "uman)centered tradition t"at "e1anted to overcome0 4y estimating so "ig"ly "uman Dasein#s contri2ution to t"e manifesting of t"ings,

eidegger may 1ell "ave underestimated t"e contri2ution made 2y many ot"er forms of life, for 1"ic" t"ee;tinction of "uman3ind#s ontological a1areness 1ould 2e far prefera2le to t"eir o1n e;tinction in nuclear1ar j

The alt is violent, causes +assivit, and ma'es e+loitation &orseGra"am >>("il, Graduate Sc"ool of Management, University of Pueensland, eidegger#s ippies A dissentingvoice on t"e “pro2lem of t"e su2-ect& in cy2erspace, /dentities in Actionj >>>,"ttpBB1110p"ilgra"am0netBOconf0pdf .

http://www.philgraham.net/HH_conf.pdf

http://www.philgraham.net/HH_conf.pdf



Societies s"ould get 1orried 1"en Wagner#s music 2ecomes popular 2ecause it usually means t"atdistorted interpretations of <ietsc"e#s p"ilosop"y are not far a1ay0 $;istentialists create pro2lems a2out1"at is, especially identity (eidegger >78.0 .istentialism inevitabl leads to an authoritarian&orldvie& t"is, my Dionysian 1orld of t"e eternally self)creating, t"e eternally self)destroying, t"ismystery 1orld of t1ofold voluptuous delig"t, my “2eyond good and evil,& 1it"out a goal, unless t"e -oy oft"e circle itself is a goalL 1it"out 1ill, unless a ring feels good 1ill to1ards itself H do you 1ant a name fort"is 1orld% A solution to all its riddles% A lig"t for you, too, you 2est)concealed, strongest, most intrepid,most midnig"tly men% H !"is 1orld is t"e 1ill to po1er H and not"ing 2esidesj And you yourselves arealso t"is 1ill to po1er H and not"ing 2esidesj (<ietsc"e >98B>>8.0 Armed &ith a volume ofNiet3sche, some considerable orator s'ills, several Wagner records, and an e;istentialist UniversityRector in t"e form of Martin 0eidegger, 0itler managed some trul astounding feats of strategicidentity engineering (cf0 4ulloc3, >>.0 Upon 2eing appointed to t"e ?rei2erg University, 0eidegger+ronounced the end of thought, "istory, ideology, and civilisation No dogmas and ideas &ill anlonger be the la&s of our being! The Fuhrer himself , and "e alone, is the +resent and future realitfor German- (in 4ulloc3 >> +7:.0 0eidegger signed u+ to an ideolog7free +olitics itler#s !"irdWay# ($at1ell >>8.0 !"e idealised identity, t"e ne1 sym2ol of myt"ological 1ors"ip, <ietsc"e#s$uropean Superman, 1as to rule from t"at day "ence0 0itler too' control of the means of+ro+aganda t"e mediaL t"e means of mental production t"e education systemL t"e means of violencet"e police, army, and prison systemL and pandered to t"e means of material production industry and

agricultureL and proclaimed a <e1 2eginning and a <e1 1orld order0 0e ordered German to loo'for&ard into the net thousand ears and forget the +ast! eidegger and e;istentialism remaininfluential to t"is day, and "istory remains 2un3 (e0g0 Giddens7, >>, C"apt0 '.0 Giddens#s claims t"at"umans live in circumstances of X e;istential contradiction#, and t"at su2-ective deat"# and 2iologicaldeat"# are some"o1 unrelated, is a an ultimately repressive a2straction from t"at perspective, life ismerely a series of su2-ective deat"s, as if deat" 1ere t"e ultimate motor of life itself (cf0 Adorno>97B>8+.0 0istor is, in fact, the sim+le and straightfor&ard ans&er to the +roblem of thesub6ectB! The +roblemB is also a hand device for confusing, entertaining, and selling trash to themasses0 4y emp"asising t"e pro2lem of t"e ontological self# (Giddens >> 7>., informationalism andconsumerism# confines the navel7ga3ing, =narcissistic- masses to a +ermanent +resent &hich theself7consciousl sacrifice for a Uto+ian future (cf0 Adorno >8+ +*+L itc"ens >>>L Nasc" >@7 ':):>.0 (ean&hile transnational businesses go about their &or' , ra+ing ruiningO the environment H s&indling each other and &hole nationsH and inflicting +o+ulations &ith declining &ages,

declining &or'ing conditions, and declining social securit! Slaver is once again on the increase (Castells, >>@L Gra"am, >>>L /N, >>@.0 There is no +roblem of the sub6ectB, -ust as t"ere is no“glo2al societyBH there is onl the mass amnesia of uto+ian +ro+aganda , t"e strains of 1"ic" "ave"istorically accompanied revolutions in communication tec"nologies0 .ach +erson-s identit is, 2uitesim+l, their sub6ective account of a uni2ue and o2-ective histor of interactions 1it"in t"e o2-ectivesocial and material environments t"ey in"a2it, create, and in"erit0 The identit of each +erson is theirmost intimate historical information, and the are its material e+ression each +erson is a recordof their o&n histor at an given time! Thus, each +erson is a recognisabl material, identifiableentit an identit! !"is is t"eir condition0 eople are not t"eoretical entitiesL t"ey are people0 As suc",the have an intrinsic identit &ith an intrinsic value0 No amount of theor or propaganda 1ill ma3eit go a1ay0 !"e 1idespread multilateral attempts to prop up consumer society and h+erca+italism as avalid and useful means of sustainable gro&th, indeed, as the +ath to an inevita2le, internationaldemocratic Utopia, are already s"o1ing t"eir disatrous crac3s0 !"e “pro2lem& of su2-ective deat"

t"reatens to give 1ay, once again, to unprecedented mass slaug"ter0 !"e num2ed condition of anarcissistic society, rooted in a permanent “no1&, a 2lissful state of eideggerian Dasein, t"reatens to1a3e up to a 1orld in 1"ic" “su2-ective deat"& and ontology are t"e least of all 1orries 0

Life logicall +recedes essence, &hich is ineradicable8immerman, professor of p"ilosop"y H !ulane University, =4>(Mic"ael $, Confrontation 1it" Modernity p0 '9:)'99.



As / mentioned a2ove, muc" of deconstruction is in fact motivated 2y a (fre5uently "idden. li2eratoryinterest0 /f t"e tec"nological society eliminates all differences and reduces everyt"ing to t"e samemonoc"romatic ra1 material , "o1ever, 1"ence can arise t"e Vfissure V 1"ic" causes t"e aut"oritariansystem of signifiers to trem2le, to 5ua3e, to loosen up % W"ile significant c"anges in a prevailing culturalparadigm cannot 2e e;plained merely in terms of ar2itrary "uman decisions, neit"er can free "umandecisions 2e discounted in suc" an e;planation0 umans are t"ro1n at 2irt" into a cultural discourse and,"ence, into a destiny 1"ic" t"ey t"emselves did not c"oose0 eople cannot return to t"e VoriginsV of t"atdiscourse in order to start a ne1 one0 !o a large e;tent, t"en, individuals are for t"e most part players in agame of institutional, social, political, economic, literary, artistic, and religious discourse, only part of1"ic" t"ey compre"end0 Despite 2eing s"aped 2y suc" discourse, "o1ever, individuals are not merelyautomatons at t"e mercy of an ine;ora2le destiny0 Rat"er, t"ey may also 2ring to t"eir "istoricaldiscourses une;pected insig"ts, novel variations, ne1 possi2ilities 1"ic" reveal it is 2y no means fi;ed2ut instead is open to disrupture0 /t goes 1it"out saying, of course, t"at t"e possi2ility for suc" variationand novelty is greatl enhanced 2y political systems 1"ic" 2ot" guarantee and encourage self)e;pression and 1"ic" also promote t"e economic means necessary for individuals to develop t"ecapacity for self)e;pression0 Unfortunately, "o1ever, eidegger regarded Vself)e;pressionV andVdemocratic principlesV as 2ourgeois ideals symptomatic of t"e one)dimensional atomism and egoism of amodern su2-ectivism 1"ic" 1as 2lind to t"e fact t"at t"e VactorsV on t"e stage of "uman "istory 1ereplayers in a drama t"at t"ey did not t"emselves compose0 /f 1e may 2enefit from eideggers insig"t t"atmodern tec"nology is c"aracteried 2y a one)dimensional 1ay of disclosing entities, 1e must also 2e

1illing to criticie "is presuppositions a2out t"e e;tent to 1"ic" "umans are incapa2le of resisting anddevelop ing alternatives to t"at disclosure 0

Tech thought is inevitable/ateb, professor of politics H rinceton, =4(George, "ttpBBfindarticles0comBpBarticlesBmiOm''98BisOBaiO>>:'*+.

4ut t"e 5uestion arises as to 1"ere a genuine principle of limitation on tec"nological endeavor 1ouldcome from0 /t is scarcel conceivable t"at Western "umanity))and 2y no1 most of "umanity, 2ecause oft"eir pleasures and interests and t"eir o1n passions and desires and motives))1ould "alt t"etec"nological pro-ect0 $ven if , 2y some c"ange of "eart, Western "umanity could adopt an altered relationto reality and "uman 2eings, "o1 could it 2e enforced and allo1ed to yield its effects% !"e tec"nologicalpro-ect can 2e stopped only 2y some glo2al catastrop"e t"at it "ad "elped to cause or 1as po1erless toavoid0 eideggers teasing invocation of t"e idea t"at a saving remedy gro1s 1it" t"e 1orst danger isuseless0 /n any case, no one 1ould 1ant t"e tec"nological pro-ect "alted, if t"e only 1ay 1as a glo2alcatastrop"e0 er"aps even t"e survivors 1ould not 1ant to 2loc3 its reemergence0 As for our generation andt"e indefinite future, many of us are prepared to say t"at t"ere are many t"ings 1e 1is" t"at modern science did not 3no1 or is li3elyto find out and many t"ings 1e 1is" t"at modern tec"nology did not 3no1 "o1 to do0 W"en referring in >:: to t"e ne1 sciences oflife, eidegger says We do not stop to consider t"at an attac3 1it" tec"nological means is 2eing prepared upon t"e life and natureof man compared 1it" 1"ic" t"e e;plosion of t"e "ydrogen 2om2 means little0 ?or precisely if t"e "ydrogen 2om2s do not e;plodeand "uman life on eart" is preserved, an uncanny c"ange in t"e 1orld moves upon us (>99, p0 :'.0 !"e implication is t"at it isless 2ad for t"e "uman status or stature and for t"e "uman relation to reality t"at t"ere 2e nuclear destruction t"an t"at (1"at 1etoday call. genetic engineering s"ould go from success to success0 !o suc" lengt"s can a mind pus" itself 1"en itmarvels first at t"e passions, drives, and motives t"at are implicated in modern tec"nology , and t"enmarvels at t"e feats of tec"nological pro1ess0 !"e sense of 1onder is entangled 1it" a feeling of "orror0We are past even t"e su2lime, as conceptualied under t"e influence of Miltons imagination of Satan andell0 9t is +lain that so much of the s+irit of the <est is invested in modern technolog0 We "ave

referred to anger, alienation, resentment 0 4ut t"at cannot 2e t"e 1"ole story0 t"er considerations 1e canmention include t"e follo1ing a taste for virtuosity, s3ill for its o1n sa3e, an enlarged fascination 1it"tec"ni5ue in itself, and, along 1it" t"ese, an aest"etic craving to ma3e matter or nature 2eautiful or more2eautifulL and t"en, too, s"eer e;"ilaration, a 5uesting, adventurous spirit t"at is rec3less, "eedless of danger, finding in o2staclesopportunities for self)overcoming, for daring, for t"e very sort of daring t"at eidegger praises so elo5uently 1"en in >+: "ediscusses t"e Gree3 1orld in An /ntroduction to Metap"ysics (>9, esp0 pp0 '+)+>.0 All t"ese considerations move a1ayfrom anger, an;iety, resentment, and so on0 !"e trut" of t"e matter, / t"in3, is t"at t"e pro-ect of moderntec"nology, -ust li3e t"at of modern science, must attract a tur2ulence of response0 !"e very passions anddrives and motives t"at loo3 almost villainous or "ypermasculine simultaneously loo3 li3e mar3s of t"e"ig"est "uman aspiration, or, at t"e least, are not to 2e cut loose from t"e "ig"est "uman aspiration0



The alt doesn-t s+illover ar , lecturer, Sc"ool of Social olicy, Sociology and Social Researc" H University of ent, */(Ma-id, Arendts eideggerianism Contours of a ostmetap"ysical olitical !"eory%, Cultural Ialues,Iolume 7, /ssue .

Similarly, 1e must consider t"e conse5uences t"at t"is ontological su2stitution for t"e essence of t"epolitical "as for politics, in terms of 1"at is practically e;cluded 2y t"is ret"in3ing0 /f t"e presently availa2lemenu of political engagements and pro-ects (2e t"ey mar3et or social li2eralism, social democracy,communitarianism, Mar;ism, etc0. are only so many moments of t"e tec"no)social completion of anunderlying metap"ysics, t"en the fear of Emeta+hsical contaminationE inhibits an return torecognisable +olitical +ractices and sincere engagement &ith the +olitical eigencies of the da0!"is is 1"at <ancy ?raser "as called t"e pro2lem of dirty "ands, t"e suspension of engagement 1it" t"ee;isting content of political agendas 2ecause of t"eir identification as 2eing in t"rall to t"e violence ofmetap"ysics0 Una2le to engage in politics as it is, one eit"er JaK su2limates t"e desire for politics 2yretreating to an interrogation of t"e political 1it" respect to its essence (?raser, >@7, p0 77., or J2K ont"is 2asis, see3s to 2reac" t"e inscription of a 1"olly ot"er politics0 !"e former suspends politicsindefinitely, 1"ile t"e latter implies a ne1 politics, 1"ic", on t"e 2asis of its reconceived understanding oft"e political, apparently e;cludes muc" of 1"at recognia2ly 2elongs to politics today0 !"is latter difficulty

is 1ell 3no1n from Arendts case, 1"ose 2arring of issues of social and economic -ustice and 1elfarefrom t"e political domain are 1ell 3no1n0 !o offer t1o e;amples J K in "er commentary on t"e U0S0 civilrig"ts movement in t"e >:*s, s"e argued t"at t"e politically salient factor 1"ic" needed c"allenging 1asonly racial legislation and t"e formal e;clusion of African)Americans from t"e political sp"ere, notdiscrimination, social deprivation and disadvantage, etc0(Arendt, >:>, pp0 7:):9.L J 'K Arendtspronounceraent at a conference in >8' (put under 5uestion 2y Al2rec"t Wellmer regarding "er distinctionof t"e political and t"e social., t"at "ousing and "omelessness 1ere not political issues, t"at t"ey 1eree;ternal to t"e political as t"e sp"ere of t"e actualisation of freedom as disclosureL t"e political is a2out"uman self)disclosure in speec" and deed, not a2out t"e distri2ution of goods, 1"ic" 2elongs to t"esocial realm as an e;tension of t"e oi3os0J '*K !"e point "ere is not t"at Arendt and ot"ers are in anysense unconcerned or indifferent a2out suc" sufferings, deprivations and ine5ualities0 Rat"er, it is t"atsuc" disputes and agendas are identified as 2elonging to t"e socio)tec"nical sp"ere of administration,calculation, instrumentality, t"e logic of means and ends, su2-ect)o2-ect manipulation 2y a 1ill 1"ic" turnst"e 1orld to its purposes, t"e conceptual rendering of 2eings in terms of a2stract and levelling categoriesand classes, and so onL t"ey are t"ere2y part and parcel of t"e metap"ysical)tec"nological understandingof 4eing, 1"ic" effaces t"e uni5ue and singular appearance and disclosure of 2eings, and t"ere2yillegitimate candidates for consideration under t"e rene1ed, ontological)e;istential formulation of t"epolitical0 !o reconceive t"e political in terms of a departure from its former incarnation as metap"ysicalpolitics, means t"at t"e revised terms of a properly political discourse cannot accommodate t"e prosaicyet urgent 5uestions 1e mig"t typically identify under t"e ru2ric of policy 0 Kuestions of social andeconomic 6ustice are made homeless, eiled from the +olitical s+here of disputation and demand in1"ic" t"ey 1ere formerly voiced0 /ndeed, it mig"t 2e o2served t"at t"e postmetap"ysical formulation oft"e political is devoid of any content ot"er t"an t"e freedom 1"ic" defines it L it is freedom to appear, todisclose, 2ut not t"e freedom to do somet"ing in particular, in t"at utilising freedom for ac"ieving someend or ot"er implies a collapse 2ac3 into 1ill, instrumentality, teleocracy, poeisis, etc04y defining freedom5ua disclosedness as t"e essence of freedom and t"e sole end of t"e political, this +osition s'irtsdangerousl close to advocating politi5ue pour la politi5ue, divesting +olitics of an other +ractical

and normative ends in the +rocess0

No im+act ? threat construction isn-t sufficient to cause &ars/aufman, rof oli Sci and /R H U Dela1are, =4(Stuart E, “<arratives and Sym2ols in Iiolent Mo2iliation !"e alestinian)/sraeli Case,& Security Studies @+, 7** H 7+7.

$ven 1"en "ostile narratives, group fears, and opportunity are strongly present, 1ar occurs onl if thesefactors are harnessed ! $t"nic narratives and fears must com2ine to create significant et"nic "ostility



among mass pu2lics0 oliticians must also seie t"e opportunity to manipulate t"at "ostility, evo3ing"ostile narratives and sym2ols to gain or "old po1er 2y riding a 1ave of c"auvinist mo2iliation0 Suc"mo2iliation is often spurred 2y prominent events (for e;ample, episodes of violence. t"at increasefeelings of "ostility and ma3e c"auvinist appeals seem timely0 /f t"e ot"er group also mo2ilies and ifeac" sides felt security needs t"reaten t"e security of t"e ot"er side, t"e result is a security dilemmaspiral of rising fear, "ostility, and mutual t"reat t"at results in violence0 A virtue of t"is smbolist theoris that smbolist logic e+lains &h et"nic +eace is more common than ethnonationalist &ar! $venif "ostile narratives, fears, and opportunity e;ist, severe violence usually can still 2e avoided if et"nicelites s3illfully define group needs in moderate 1ays and colla2orate across group lines to preventviolence t"is is consociationalism08 War is li3ely only if "ostile narratives, fears, and opportunity spur"ostile attitudes, c"auvinist mo2iliation, and a security dilemma0

Lift is al&as valuableTorchia *, rofessor of "ilosop"y, rovidence College, "d in "ilosop"y, ?ord"am College (Eosep",“ostmodernism and t"e ersistent Iegetative State,& !"e <ational Cat"olic 4ioet"ics Puarterly Summer'**', Iol0 ', <o0 ', "ttpBB1110lifeissues0netB1ritersBtorcBtorcO*postmodernismandpvs0"tml.

Ultimately, A5uinas t"eory of person"ood re5uires a metap"ysical e;planation t"at is rooted in anunderstanding of t"e primacy of t"e e;istence or esse of t"e "uman person0 ?or "umans 2eings, t"e

ups"ot of t"is position is clear 1"ile "uman person"ood is intimately connected 1it" a 2road range ofactions (including consciousness of oneself and ot"ers., t"e definition of person"ood is not 2ased uponany specific activity or capacity for action, 2ut upon t"e primacy of esse 0 /ndeed, "uman actions 1ould"ave neit"er a cause nor any referent in t"e a2sence of a sta2le, a2iding self t"at is rooted in t"e personsvery 2eing0 A commitment to t"e primacy of esse, t"en, allo1s for an ade5uate recognition of t"eimportance of actions in "uman life, 1"ile providing a principle for t"e unification and sta2iliing of t"ese2e"avioral features0 /n t"is respect, t"e "uman person is defined as a dynamic 2eing 1"ic" actualies t"epotentiality for certain 2e"avior or operations uni5ue to "is or "er o1n e;istence0 $sse t"ere2y em2racesall t"at t"e person is and is capa2le of doing0/n t"e final analysis, an attem+t to define the +erson in terms of a single attribute , activit, orca+abilit (e0g0, consciousness. flies in t"e face of t"e dept" and multi)dimensionality 1"ic" is part andparcel of person"ood itself0 !o do so &ould abdicate the ontological core of the +erson and the vercenter &hich renders human activities intelligible0 And A5uinas ant"ropology, / su2mit, provides aneffective p"ilosop"ical lens t"roug" 1"ic" t"e dept" and profundity of t"e "uman reality comes into s"arpfocus0 /n t"is respect, ennet" Sc"mit dra1s an illuminating distinction 2et1een VpersonV (a term 1"ic"conveys suc" "idden dept" and profundity. and VpersonalityV (a term 1"ic" pertains to surfaceimpressions and ones pu2lic image.07* !"e preoccupation 1it" t"e latter term, "e s"o1s, is very muc"an outgro1t" of t"e eig"teent" century emp"asis upon a "uman individuality t"at is understood in termsof autonomy and privacy0 !"is notion of t"e isolated, atomistic individual 1as closely lin3ed 1it" asu2-ective focus 1"ere2y t"e VselfV 2ecame t"e ultimate referent for -udging reality 0 4y e;tension, suc" apresupposition led to t"e conviction t"at only self)consciousness provides a means of validating anyclaims to person"ood and mem2ers"ip in a community of free moral agents capa2le of responsi2ilitiesand 1ort"y of rig"ts0/n contrast to suc" an isolated and enclosed conception (i0e0, 1"ere2y one is a person 2y virtue of 2eingVset apartV from ot"ers as a privatied entity., Sc"mit focuses upon an intimacy 1"ic" presupposes acertain relation 2et1een persons0 ?rom t"is standpoint, intimacy is only possi2le t"roug" genuine self)disclosure, and t"e s"aring of self)disclosure t"at allo1s for an intimate 3no1ledge of t"e ot"er07 ?or

Sc"mit, suc" a revelation of ones inner self transcends any specific attri2utes or any overt capacity t"eindividual mig"t possess07' Ultimately, Sc"mit argues, intimacy is rooted in t"e uni5ue act ofpresencing, 1"ere2y t"e person reveals "is or "er personal e;istence0 4ut suc" a mystery only admits ofa metp"ysical e;planation, rat"er t"an an epistemological t"eory of meaning 1"ic" confines itself to 1"atis o2serva2le on t"e 2asis of perception or sense e;perience0 /ntimacy, t"en, discloses a level of 2eingt"at transcends any distinctive properties0 4ecause intimacy "as a uni5ue capacity to disclose 2eing, itplaces us in touc" 1it" t"e very core of person"ood0 Metap"ysically spea3ing, intimacy is not grounded int"e recognition of t"is or t"at c"aracteristic a person "as, 2ut rat"er in t"e simple un5ualified presence t"eperson is07+

http://www.lifeissues.net/writers/torc/torc_01postmodernismandpvs1.html

http://www.lifeissues.net/writers/torc/torc_01postmodernismandpvs1.html



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Alt can-t solve no method to reduce &arming ? %ur solvenc claims in the contetof ".L9:.)AT9%N ma'e fear (ANAG.A:L. even if their research is true

(oser and "illing 11 !"e ;ford and2oo3 of Climate C"ange and SocietySusanne Moser, "0D0, is Director and rincipal Researc"er of Susanne Moser Researc" F Consultingin Santa Cru, California0 S"e is also a Social Science Researc" ?ello1 at t"e Woods /nstitute for t"e$nvironment at Stanford University and a Researc" Associate at t"e University of California)Santa Cru/nstitute for Marine Sciences0 reviously, s"e served as a Researc" Scientist at t"e <ational Center for

Atmosp"eric Researc" in 4oulder, ColoradoL served as staff scientist for climate c"ange at t"e Union ofConcerned ScientistsL 1as a researc" fello1 at arvard#s ennedy Sc"ool of Government and at t"eein Center in Was"ington, DC0 Susis 1or3 focuses on adaptation to climate c"ange, vulnera2ility,resilience, climate c"ange communication, social c"ange, decision support and t"e interaction 2et1eenscientists, policy)ma3ers and t"e pu2lic0 S"e is a geograp"er 2y training ("0D0 >>8, Clar3 University.1it" an interests in "o1 social science can inform societys responses to t"is glo2al c"allenge0 S"e "as1or3ed in coastal areas, ur2an and rural communities, 1it" forest)reliant communities, and on "uman"ealt" issues0 Susi contri2uted to Wor3ing Group // of t"e <o2el prie)1inning /ntergovernmental anelon Climate C"ange#s ?ourt" Assessment Report, and currently serves as Revie1 $ditor on t"e /CC#s

Special Report on “Managing t"e Ris3s of $;treme $vents and Disasters to Advance Climate C"ange Adaptation0& S"e "as advised t"e 2ama Administration on communication of climate c"ange, evaluatedformer Iice resident Al Gore#s Climate ro-ect on climate c"ange communication, and is a fre5uentadvisor to policy)ma3ers and managers at all levels of government0 S"e is a co)editor 1it" Nisa Dilling(University of Colorado)4oulder. on a ground)2rea3ing '**8 ant"ology on climate c"angecommunication, called Creating a Climate for C"ange Communicating Climate C"ange and ?acilitatingSocial C"ange (Cam2ridge University ress.0 er 1or3 "as 2een recognied t"roug" fello1s"ips in t"e

Aldo Neopold Neaders"ip rogram, t"e UCAR Neaders"ip Academy, avli ?rontiers of Science rogram,and t"e Donella Meado1s Neaders"ip rogram

Clearly t"ese findings pose difficult dilemmas for communicators S"ould 1e avoid telling 1"at scientists "ave esta2lis"ed as

facts and reasona2le outloo3s a2out t"e serious) ness, pace, and long)term commitment of climate c"ange% S"ould 1einstead only discuss energy) and money)saving actions and convey pictures of "ope 2y focusing on t"e easy actions, t"e doa2ilityof mitigation% S"ould 1e perpetuate t"e idea t"at t"ere are fifty simple 1ays to save t"e planet, -ust to spare lay pu2lics rat"erappropriate an;iety% .isting research suggests other&ise0 W"ile neit"er alarmism nor ollyannaism seem to yield

desired results, &ise integration of strategies ma &ell result in greater engagement! ?irst, communicationt"at affirms rat"er t"an t"reatens t"e sense of self and 2asic 1orld) vie1s "eld 2y t"e audience "as 2een s"o1n to create a greateropenness to ris3 information (a"an and 4raman '**@.0 Second, ris3 information and fear)evo3ing images s"ould 2e limited

and al1ays 2e com2ined 1it" messages and information t"at provide specific, pragmatic "elp in realiing doa2lesolutions0 !"ese solutions must 2e reasona2ly effective in reducing t"e pro2lem, especially toget"er 1it" ot"er

solutions 2eing implemented0 /mportantly, communicators must esta2lis" a sense of collective response, especially2y people in li3e social and cultural groups0 Moreover, solutions s"ould 2e 2roadly consistent 1it" individuals personal aspirations,desired social identity, and cultural 2iases (CR$D '**>L Segnit and $reaut '**8.0 ?inally, given t"e ideological polariation aroundresponses to climate c"ange (discussed 2elo1., t"e legitimate e;perience of fear and 2eing over) 1"elmed, and t"e deep andlasting societal c"anges re5uired to address t"e pro2lem, there is an im+ortant +lace for facilitated dialogue andstructured deliberation of the issues as the emerge (a"an and 4raman '**9.0 Suc" deliberation "as 2eens"o1n to improve interpersonal 3no1ledge and trust of people 1it" very different values, provide critical social support andaffirmation, increase openness to different opinions and ris3 informa) tion, and t"us to ena2le decision ma3ing,

rat"er t"an o2struct it (<agda '**9.0



0.G0eg decreases interventionism/ristol and /agan * (William and Ro2ert, $ditor of t"e Wee3ly Standard, Senior Associate 1it" t"e Carnegie$ndo1ment for /nternational eace, “resent Dangers Crisis and pportunity in American ?oreign and Defense olicy&"ttpBB11101nyc0orgB2oo3sB9@.

!"is does not mean t"at t"e U nited S tates must root out evil 1"erever and 1"enever it rears its "ead0 <ordoes it suggest t"at t"e United States must em2ar3 on a crusade against every dictators"ip0 <o doctrineof foreign policy can do a1ay 1it" t"e need for -udgment and prudence, for 1eig"ing competing moral considerations0

<o foreign policy doctrine can provide precise and unvarying ans1ers to t"e 5uestion of 1"ere, 1"en and"o1 t"e United States oug"t to intervene a2road0 /t is easy to say t"at t"e United States must "avecriteria for c"oosing 1"en to intervene0 4ut it is a good deal "arder to formulate t"ose criteria t"an simplyto say t"ey must e;ist0 enry issinger 1rites in Diplomacy t"at 1"at is most needed in American foreign policy are Vcriteriafor selectivity0V 4ut "e does not venture to suggest e;actly 1"at t"ose criteria mig"t 2e0 =et if one admits t"at closely lin3ed mattersof prestige, principle and morality play a role in s"aping foreign policy, t"en rigid criteria for intervention 5uic3ly prove illusory0 Asissinger 1ell 3no1s, t"e complicated 1or3ings of foreign policy and t"e e;ceptional position of t"e UnitedStates s"ould guard us against 2elieving t"at t"e national interest can 2e measured in a 5uasi)scientificfas"ion, or t"at areas of VvitalV national interest can 2e located, and ot"er areas e;cluded, 2y purelygeopolitical determinations0 Determining 1"at is in Americas national interest is an art, not a science0 /tre5uires not only t"e measurement of po1er 2ut also an appreciation of 2eliefs, principles and perceptions, 1"ic" cannot 2e

5uantified0 !"at is 1"y 1e c"oose statesmen, not mat"ematicians, to conduct foreign policy0 !"at is 1"y 1e1ill occasionally "ave to intervene a2road even 1"en 1e cannot prove t"at a narro1ly construed VvitalinterestV of t"e United States is at sta3e0 /t is 1ort" pointing out, t"oug", t"at a foreign policy premised on Americanhegemony, and on t"e 2lending of principle 1it" material interest, may in fact mean fewer, not more, overseas interventionst"an under t"e Vvital interestV standard0 ad t"e 4us" Administration, for e;ample, realied early on t"at t"ere 1asno clear distinction 2et1een American moral concerns in 4osnia and Americas national interest t"ere, t"eUnited States, 1it" t"e enormous credi2ility earned in t"e Gulf War, mig"t "ave 2een a2le to put a stop to Milosevicsam2itions 1it" a 1ell)timed t"reat of punis"ing military action0 4ut 2ecause t"e 4us" team placed 4osniaoutside t"e sp"ere of VvitalV American interests, t"e resulting crisis eventually re5uired t"e deployment oft"ousands of troops on t"e ground0 !"e same could 2e said of American interventions in anama and t"eGulf0 A passive 1orld)vie1 encouraged American leaders to ignore trou2ling developments 1"ic"eventually metastasied into full 2lo1n t"reats to American security. Manuel <oriega and Saddam ussein 1eregiven reason to 2elieve t"at t"e United States did not consider its interests t"reatened 2y t"eir 2e"avior, only to discover t"at t"ey"ad 2een misled0 /n eac" case, a 2roader and more for1ard)leaning conception of t"e national interest mig"t"ave made t"e later large and potentially costly interventions unnecessary0 !"e 5uestion, t"en, is not1"et"er t"e United Sates s"ould intervene every1"ere or no1"ere0 !"e decision Americans need toma3e is 1"et"er t"e United States s"ould generally lean for1ard, as it 1ere, or sit 2ac30 A strategy aimed atpreserving American "egemony s"ould em2race t"e former stance, 2eing more rat"er t"an less inclined to1eig" in 1"en crises erupt, and prefera2ly 2efore t"ey erupt0 !"is is t"e standard of a glo2al superpo1er t"at intends to s"ape t"e international environment to its o1n advantage0 4y contrast, t"e vital interest standard is t"at of a VnormalVpo1er t"at a1aits a dramatic c"allenge 2efore it rouses itself into action0



SUST0eg isn-t declining?demogra+hics, +olitical challenges and US economic

dominances/lein 1*

($ra lein is a columnist and 2logger at !"e Was"ington ost and a policy analyst for MS<4C0 is 1or3 focuses on domestic and economic policy)ma3ing, as 1ell as t "e political system t"ats constantlyscre1ing it up0, :B9B'*', VAmerican Decline a Mirage in a W orld !"at#s RisingV, 11102loom2erg0comBne1sB'*')*:)9Bamerican)decline)a)mirage)in)a)1orld)t"at)s)rising0"tml.

“ Anyone 1"o tells you t"at America is in decline or t"at our influence "as 1aned,& said resident 4arac3 2ama in "is '*' State of

t"e Union address, “doesn#t 3no1 1"at t"ey#re tal3ing a2out0& /t 1as a “ra")ra" Americaj& applause line for a president 1"o needed to get t"e assem2led Repu2licans out of

t"eir seats a fe1 times over t"e course of t"e evening0 4ut t"e line 1or3s literally, too0 W"enever someone tells me t"at t"e U0S0 is indecline, / don#t "ave any idea 1"at t"ey#re tal3ing a2out0 And neit"er, / tend to t"in3, do t"ey0 !"e claim ismaddeningly vague0 W"at does it mean for t"e U0S0 to 2e in decline% Are 1e tal3ing a2out our geopolitical influence relative to ot"er 1orldpo1ers% ur standard of living relative to ot"er nations% ur current standard of living compared 1it" some assumption a2out its appropriate rate of improvement% Net#s flip t"e 5uestion W"at does it mean fort"e U0S0 to 2e on t"e rise% /f it#s gro1ing at a perfectly respecta2le +0: percent a year 1"ile C"ina is gro1ing at @0: percent a year, ena2ling C"ina#s economy to surpass t"e U0S0 in a decade or so, does t"atmean t"e U0S0 is i n decline% My "unc" is t"at#s "o1 most Americans define decline0 !"at#s a pro2lem0 Consider a different scenario Net#s say t"e U0S0 is gro1ing at + percent annually, and C"ina#s gro1t" slo1sto 7 percent0 /n t"at case, C"ina 1on#t surpass t"e U0S0 for decades, forestalling American “decline0& =et t"at#s a 1orse outcome for every2ody0 /t means more impoveris"ed C"inese and more impoveris"ed Americans )) 1"o 1ill, incidentally, 2e competing 1it" t"ose lo1)1age C"inese 1or3ers 1"o still can#t afford to 2uy American)made goods and services0 /t means fe1er life)improving innovations 1ill 2e developedin 2ot" countries0 /t may also mean less geopolitical sta2ility as t"e C"inese people c"annel t"eir fr ustrations against t"eir political system, or t"eir political system tries to distract t"em 2y c"anneling t"eir

frustrations against competitor nations0 /f American preeminence relies on t"e continued immiseration of 4rail, C"ina and/ndia, t"en, even in t"e most selfis" terms, /#m not sure t"at it#s 1ort" "aving0 =et it seems t"at some

Americans 1ould prefer to 2e t"e only superpo1er in "ell t"an t"e foremost mem2er of a moreprosperous Group of '* in "eaven0 A 1orld in 1"ic" glo2al gro1t" slo1s so muc" t"at countries 1it" t"reeor four times our population never surpass t"e U0S0#s economic output is a 1orld in 1"ic" muc" is going

1rong0 $ven no1, many C"inese t"in3 t"at @ percent annual gro1t" is necessary for t"eir society toremain sta2le0 /f gro1t" falls to 7 percent, t"e C"inese system could crac3, 1it" untold geopolitical and"uman conse5uences0 er"aps it 1ould lead to a more pluralistic, open political system0 4ut / 1ouldn#t 2et on it0 More li3ely, it 1ould lead to increased nationalism, ;enop"o2ia and internal

repression0 /f "undreds of millions of C"inese and /ndians continue to 2e stuc3 on unproductive farms or inuns3illed -o2s rat"er t"an 2eing freed to develop t"eir "uman capital, t"e rest of t"e 1orld 1ill 2e deniedaccess to t"e endless innovations t"ey ot"er1ise mig"t "ave developed0 ut anot"er 1ay, t"e sun may no1 set ont"e 4ritis" $mpire, 2ut t"e average 4ritis" citien lives muc" 2etter 2ecause of t"e medical and computertec"nologies developed in 4ritain#s former colonies0 /f t"ose colonies "adn#t gro1n ric" and strong enoug" to t"ro1 off t"e mot"er country#s yo3e, t"e result

1ould 2e a 1orse 1orld for everyone ))including t"e 4ritis"0 So, yes, t"e U0S0 "as its pro2lems0 4ut / 1ouldn#t trade our pro2lems for anyoneelse#s0 .uro+e, China and Qa+an face immense demogra+hic challenges 0 All t"ree are aging rapidlyand , for cultural and political reasons, immigration is unli3ely to s1ell t"eir 1or3forces0 Eapan, 1it" amedian age of 7709, is one of t"e oldest countries in t"e 1orld0 /n C"ina, t"e 2irt" rate "as fallen from '092irt"s per 1oman +* years ago to 0:9 today 0 olitical c"allenges loom e5ually large! !"e euro area loo3sirredeema2ly fla1ed )) per"aps even unsalvagea2le0 /t#s unclear "o1 C"ina#s political system 1ill evolve ast"e country gro1s ric"er, or "o1 it 1ill survive if t"e rapid gro1t" of t"e past fe1 decades slo1sdramatically0 As for /ndia , its political system ma3es t"e euro area loo3 li3e a model of farsig"tedgovernance0 !"en t"ere are t"e economic c"allenges0 4rail, C"ina and /ndia are 2ecoming middle)income countries0 istorically, t"at is a "ar2inger of slo1er gro1t" 0 Ruc"ir S"arma, "ead of emerging mar3ets at Morgan Stanley and aut"or of t"e

2oo3 “4rea3out <ations,& says t"e “gold medalists of gro1t"& all e;perience a similar fate0 “Eapan and orea and !ai1an, at a similar stage to 1"ereC"ina is today in economic development, all slo1ed do1n,& "e says0 “/t#s muc" easier to gro1 from a lo1 2ase0 nce your 2ase 2ecomes 2igger, it#s

muc" more difficult to gro10& /f $urope gets 2ac3 on trac3, and if 4rail, C"ina and /ndia manage to sustain t"eir "ig"gro1t" rates, t"en it#s true t"at more nations 1ill 2e vying for influence on t"e 1orld stage America#sun5uestioned geopolitical dominance could decline0 At t"at point, ensuring t"at t"e values t"e U0S0 "asimperfectly promoted )) li2eral democracy, "uman rig"ts, open capitalism )) continue to "old s1ay 2ecomes a matter of statecraft0

Diplomacy 1ill "ave to ac"ieve 1"at 2eing t"e only superpo1er on t"e 2loc3 once assured0 4ut t"at#s 1"y 1e "ave t"e

State Department, not to mention a military 2udget larger t"an t"e ne;t doen or so states com2ined0 !"e pro2lems associated 1it" e;pansive glo2aleconomic gro1t" are real, 2ut t"ey#re pro2lems in t"e conte;t of an improving 1orld0 Conversely, if t"e 4R/Cs

can#t rise out of poverty, and $urope and Eapan can#t rig"t t"eir economies, t"at#s a 1orld 1e don#t 1ant,1it" pro2lems 1e may 1ell not 2e a2le to solve0 !"ose 1"o yearn for a form of American preeminence t"at can only e;ist due to economic stagnation else1"erereally do not 3no1 1"at t"ey#re tal3ing a2out0



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ontological dis+utes are terminological0irsch ;"ilosop"y and "enomenological Researc" Iol0 N, <o0 , Eanuary '**:$li irsc" is an American p"ilosop"er, t"e C"arles Goldman rofessor of "ilosop"y at 4randeisUniversity0JK e is 2est 3no1n for "is 1or3 in meta)ontology0 e coined t"e p"rase Vsoft ontologyV and"as aut"ored numerous 2oo3s suc" as !"e Concept of /dentity and Dividing Reality0

!1o main claims are defended in t"is paper first, t"at typical disputes in t"e literaturea2out t"e ontologof p"ysical o2-ects are merel ver2a lL second, t"at t" e +ro+er 1ay to resolve t"ese disputes is 2yappealing to common sense or ordinary language 0 A ver2al dispute is c"aracteried not in terms ofprivate idiolects, 2ut in terms of different lin) guistic communities representing different positions0 /f 1eimagine a community t"at ma3es C"is"olms mereological essentialist assertions, and anot"er communityt"at ma3es Ne1iss four)dimensionalist assertions, t"e mem2ers of eac" community spea3 t"e trut" int"eir respective languages0 !"is follo1s from an application of t"e principle of interpretive c"arity to t"et1o communities0 My central claim in t"is paper is t"at many familiar 5uestions a2out t"e on) tology ofp"ysical o2-ects are merely ver2al0 Nothing is substantivel at sta'e in t"ese 5uestions beond thecorrect use of language0 A derivative claim is t"at, since t"ey are ver2al, t"e proper 1ay to resolve

t"ese 5uestions is 2y appealing to common sense or ordinary language0

Georgetown Engler McCoy All Aff Harvard Round6

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