Geography Economy Population · ‘Iraq’ stuck between empires Ottomans versus Safavids Ottomans...
Transcript of Geography Economy Population · ‘Iraq’ stuck between empires Ottomans versus Safavids Ottomans...
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Geography Economy Population History Politics
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Located in Middle East Bordered by 5 states
Turkey Iran Kuwait Jordan Syria
Almost landlocked: Um Qasr access to Persian Gulf
Non-Arab
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Bubiyan Island (Kuwait)
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Arid & semi-arid areas Syrian Desert
Two major river systems Tigris Euphrates Rich alluvial river valleys
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Zagros mountains Northeast Iraq Part of chain
Turkey Iran
Source of Tigris tributaries
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Iraq = downriver state Tigris & Euphrates
Rise in Turkey Flow through Syria Provide 90% of Iraq’s water!
Turkey building dams Water flow shrinking
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Like all regional states Iraq… …inherited contested borders Dispute with Iran
Shatt al-Arab Iraqi position: border is in middle Iranian position: border is Iraqi bank Off/on problem
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Iraq’s position: Kuwait is 19th province ‘Stolen’ by British Claim pressed… …claim relinquished (Never seems to go away) Claim unrecognized by other Arabs Current dispute: Bubiyan island
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Est. reserves:143 billion barrels More reported May have largest reserves in world
Steady production increases 2020: may >6 million barrels/day Will drive future world crude prices
Funds 90% of government budget Requires major investments
Storage, transportation, drilling
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Remember: Iraq nearly landlocked Iraq antagonized neighbors
Major export problems Denied access to Gulf Denied pipeline access
Current situation favorable Export through Gulf
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Mesopotamia ‘Land between the Two Rivers’
Tigris Euphrates
Rivers = reason for civilization Earliest civilizations found here
Sumer Babylon Assyria
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Difficult terrain to defend Few natural barriers Constant invasions Oldest Cold War
Mesopotamia versus Egypt Two riverine civilizations Constant struggle for Syria, Palestine
Nile River
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Achaeminid, Sassanid province Differences: languages, cultures
Persia = Indo-European civilization Mesopotamia = Semitic civilization
636 AD: Battle of Qadisiyya Defeat of Persians Victory of Muslim Arab armies Iraq becomes Muslim
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Qadisiyya: Part of Saddam’s Mythology
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Key province under Umayyads Umayyad capital: Damascus
Key Iraqi power centers: Kufa Basra
Umayyads weakened Corruption Alienated non-Arabs
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Abbasids = dynastic family Originally from Khorasan
Eastern Iran, Afghanistan
Claimed descent from Prophet Created powerful Caliphate Capital: Baghdad ‘Peak of Islamic civilization’
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Strong Persian influences on: Arts Architecture Philosophy Poetry
Contributed to Renaissance Translations of Greek, Latin classics Retransmitting them to Europe
Universities, libraries
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Mongol invasions Wiped out eastern Islam Sacked, pillaged, annihilated
Herat Balkh Samarqand Nishapur
1258 AD Baghdad sacked Some areas never recovered…
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‘Iraq’ stuck between empires Ottomans versus Safavids
Ottomans = Turkish rulers Based in Istanbul Sunni
Safavids = Turko-Persian rulers Based in Esfahan Shia
Ottomans ultimately prevailed
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Authoritarianism Cultural stagnation
Arabic language suffered Arts Learning
Economic decline Iraq = backwater of empire
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UK ‘inherited’ Mesopotamia Why?
Defeated Ottomans in WWI
What was inherited: Velayet of Basra Velayet of Mosul Velayet of Baghdad
Velayet = province, governorate
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British decision Fused three velayets together Create ‘Iraq’ 1921: make Faisal King of Iraq
New state comprised of: 60% Shi’a Arabs 19% Sunni Arabs 20% Kurds
UK decided NOT TO create Kurdish state
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Faisal was weak King Unassertive Vacillated Had to submit to UK demands
Maybe that was best for Iraq! He straddled Iraq’s divides Overshadowed by others
Nuri al-Said
Nuri al-Said
Faisal bin Hussein
T.E. Lawrence
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Lawrence of Arabia’s companion De facto strongman of Iraq Monarchy generally weak Managed Iraq until 1958 Backed by UK, US
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Oil known to be in Iraq Mosul Kirkuk
Key reason for outside meddling Turkey France
1934: first oil exports begin
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World War II British Empire besieged Early Nazi victories British look very vulnerable
Prime Minister Rashid Ali Gailani Overthrew pro-British Emir Abdullah Attacked British base Called on Germans for help
British invade, oust Rashid Ali
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1955: Baghdad Pact Pro-Western alliance
Turkey Iraq Iran Pakistan
Baghdad Pact criticized Nasser (Egypt) Syria Saudi Arabia
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1952 coup in Egypt Nasser became President Arab unity theme Rejected foreign alliances
(such as Baghdad Pact)
Sought regional leadership Egypt = Arab powerhouse Opposed by Iraq, Saudis
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Stuck in the middle Egypt-Iraq power struggle
Continuous coups Threats from Israel Opposed Iraq and alliances Pressured Jordan
Iraq’s Hashemite ally
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Dynastic politics Al-Saud versus Hashemites Iraq = Hashemite powerhouse Memories of deprivation
‘Loss’ of Hejaz to al-Saud Score-settling
Competition for Syria
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Step 1: Egypt-Syria union Step 2: Hashemite Union
Iraq and Jordan
Step 3: Jordan needs help Safeguard borders
Step 4: Iraqi division sent to Jordan… …via Baghdad (oops)
Step 5: Division leaders mutiny Monarchy overthrown
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New leader: Abd al-Karim Qassem Army officer
His options: Tilt to Soviet Union? Joined Egypt-Syria Union? Go it alone?
Qassem tilted to Communists Pulled out of Baghdad Pact Dissolved union with Jordan
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Qassem fell out with Nasser Intense Iraq-Egypt animosity Qassem turned on Ba’athists Coup plotting 1959 coup against Qassem
Failed One player: Saddam Hussein Bloodbath across Iraq
1963 Ba’athist coup
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1963-1968 Iraq under Abd al-Salam Arif Union talks with Egypt Arif died in helicopter crash
1968 coup Ba’athists in power Led by MG Hassan al-Bakr Saddam = ‘chief enforcer’
Saddam in charge of security
Egypt Syria Iraq
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1970s Era of prosperity Oil wealth flowing in Infrastructure built Country at peace 1975 Treaty with Iran
Settled Shatt al-Arab dispute Kurdish revolts crushed
Saddam Hassan Al-Bakr
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Bided his time Gained strength Controlled secret police 1979: ousted al-Bakr Who was Saddam?
Born in Tikrit Fatherless Ba’athist thug 1959-1963: exiled in Egypt
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1979 Iranian Revolution Khomeini threatened Iraq
Called for Shi’a uprising
Saddam called for Arab uprising Iranian ‘Khuzestan’ or ‘Arabistan’
September 1980: Iraq attacked Goals:
Overthrow Khomeini Iraq as regional great power
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Iran in chaos Warring factions in Tehran
Iranian military weakened Officers executed Equipment not maintained US gone
Khomeini unpopular Khuzestan Arabs want liberation A simple nudge…and Iran collapses
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Iraqi forces made progress Six divisions
Occupied border areas But…
Iraqi army ran out of gas Ammo reserves exhausted Iranian resistance grew Khuzestan Arabs did not rise up
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1982 Iranian offensive Human wave tactics
Iraqis pushed out of Iran Iranian invaded Iraq
Threatened Basra
Panic in Baghdad CW used Attacks on Iranian oilfields, tankers Solicited aid from Gulf Arabs
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Both sides exploited: Ethnic minorities Sectarian divide Dissidents
Iran backed Shi’a insurgents Da’wa, SCIRI Badr Corps
Iran backed Kurdish insurgents Iraq backed Iranian dissidents
Mojaheddin-e Khalq
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Iraqi Super Etendard jets Armed with Exocet missiles Sank Iranian tankers
Iran responds Sank Iraqi tankers Mined Iraqi, Kuwaiti ports
1987: US involvement Reflagged Kuwaiti tankers Escorted them through Gulf
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Iraq unleashed Scuds Scud variants
Target: Tehran Goal:
Terror Intimidate Iranian population
Result: Large-scale population move out of Tehran
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Iran exhausted Oil infrastructure damaged Public demoralized Growing US enmity
Iraqi offensives Liberated more territory Gassed own Kurdish citizens
1988: Iran accepted ceasefire Both want to rebuild
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Poor Iraq-Kuwait relations Iraq: Kuwait is ’19th province’ Kuwait angered Iraq
Exceeded OPEC quota Drove oil prices down
Iraq (desperately) needed higher oil prices
Iraq: Kuwait is ‘slant drilling’ ‘Stealing our oil’
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August 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait Kuwaiti army crushed Kuwait royals fled Saudis alarmed West worried US forces deployed to region
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February 1991 Coalition air operations Iraqi forces pounded Iraqi air force destroyed Iraq retaliated with SCUDs
March 1991 Coalition ground war Iraqi army pushed out of Kuwait Ceasefire
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Saddam under siege Defeat of his armies Shi’a uprising in south Kurds under Allied protection Coup rumors swirl Saddam survived
Security forces intact Family stayed together
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UN inspectors’ mandate Dismantle Iraq’s WMD
Largely succeeded Uncover advanced nuke program Dismantled missile program Ended CBW programs
Iraqis tried to hinder, delay… …sparking more suspicions US and UK resorted to military force
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US strategy: containment Key: sanctions Alter Saddam’s behavior
UN sanctions on imports, exports Iraqi infrastructure run down Increased poverty Literacy rates went down Iraq limped along
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Saddam had few options Continued Iranian enmity De facto Kurdish autonomy US regime change plans Key Arabs against him UN inspectors destroyed his WMD Shi’a primed for another uprising No international allies
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Saddam played shell game He didn’t have WMD… …but fueled doubts he did
US intel assessments: Saddam had WMD Reconstituting nuclear capability
March 2003 US invaded Iraq US overthrew Saddam
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Insufficient occupation forces Widespread Iraqi looting Infrastructure damaged US dismantled Iraqi army
Anti-Ba’athist campaign Thousands unemployed
Insurgency sparked US, allies slow to respond
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Saddam Fedayeen Ba’athist followers Harassed Coalition LOCs
Sunni uprisings Fallujah Ramadi
Sunni sense of: Deprivation Marginalization Fear
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Several elections Iraqi constitutional council Establish Iraqi government As expected:
Shi’a dominated elections Sunni vote threatened Kurds gain more autonomy
Key challenge for government Gaining Sunni Arab support
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Strong Jihadi presence Focused on Sunni Arab areas Came from:
Syria Saudi Arabia Jordan, etc.
Tried radicalizing locals Ruled through fear, intimidation
Generated resentment
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Arab Sunni revolt Aimed at jihadi presence Based on tribal militias Gained coalition support Sunni resistance crested Jihadis eliminated Key to US ‘exit strategy’
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Scarred Beaten Exhausted Torn Still a democracy Americans gone Tenuous power sharing
How long can it last?
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Location Borders non-Arab neighbors:
Turkey Iran
Borders important Arab states Syria Saudi Arabia
Hard to be peaceful and quiet… …when you have neighbors like these
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What is an Iraqi? Is Iraqi identity stronger than:
Kurdish one? Sunni one? Shi’a one? Arab one?
Can nation be created… …for existing Iraqi state? What does being Iraqi mean?
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Who can rule Iraq? Strongmen prevail
Nuri al-Sa’id Qassim Saddam
Democracy is new idea Can it last?
Can only strongman hold Iraq together?
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Corollary to strongman motif Iraq usually police state
Strong arm of regime
Usual adversaries: Dissidents Kurds Shi’a Spies Army officers
Saddam created ‘coup proof’ state
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Est. population: 31 million Growth rate: 2.345% per year 3.58 children born per woman Median age: 21 years Life expectancy: 70.8 years Urbanization: 66%
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Iraq Iran Turkey Syria Jordan
Population 31 million 79 million 80 million 23 million 6.5 million
Pop. growth 2.3% 1.25% 1.2% -0.7% -0.9%
Median age 21 years 27 years 29 years 22 years 22.4 years
Life Expectancy 71 years 70 years 73 years 75 years 80 years
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Multi-ethnic society What is ‘ethnicity’?
Language Culture Tribe
Majority is Arab
78%
18%
2% 2%
ArabKurdishTurkomanOther
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Also stratified by sect Islam
Sunni Shia majority
Christianity
32%
65%
3%
SunniShiaChristian
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Successive Iraqi regimes failed… …to accommodate sects, ethnicities Results:
Kurdish uprisings Shi’a uprisings
Situation today: Shi’a in charge Sunnis disgruntled Kurds have de facto state
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Kirkuk Key city in northern Iraq Sits on sizeable oil field Majority Kurdish population Saddam’s ethnic cleansing
Introduction of Arab immigrants Displacement of Kurds
Kurd claims reasserted after 2003 Whose city is it?
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Iraq’s ethnic, sectarian wars… …spill-over to neighbors Let’s look at Kurds Kurds found in:
Turkey Iran Syria Iraq
Iraqi Kurds most liberated today
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Turkey did not welcome OIF Why?
One reason: Kurdish autonomy Long-term risk:
Iraqi Kurdish independence This will inspire Turkish Kurds Could reignite insurgency in Turkey
Turkey has threatened invasion… …to stop Iraqi Kurdish independence
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Syria has Kurdish population too Generally quiescent… for now
Generally allied with Asad regime
But, what if: Syrian government falls? Muslim Brothers take over? Iraqi Kurds declare independence?
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Iran also has Kurds Most of whom are Sunni Periodic Kurdish unrest Watchful of events in Iraq Backed Iraqi Kurdish groups
PUK KDP Ansar al-Islam
Understandings with Iraqi Kurds
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Many Arab neighbors fear ‘Shia crescent’ Belt of Shi’a states
Iran Iraq Syria Lebanon
Fear of Shi’a uplift Iraqi government held at arm’s length
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Iraq’s ethnic, sectarian struggles… …are part of regional politics
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Iraq increasingly urban society 65%+ urban Largest cities:
Baghdad: 5.8 million Mosul: 1.4 million Irbil: 1 million Basra: 900,000 Al-Suleimaniya: 800,000
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Now that sanctions are over… …Iraqi can revive Significant progress in literacy
80% literate Very good for Arab world
Reduced infant, maternal mortality Key is harmonized politics!
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2005 Iraqi constitution Empowered prime minister, parliament…
…at expense of President
President: Jalal Talabani Kurd Leader of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Up for reelection in 2014
Prime Minister: Nuri al-Maliki Arab Shi’a Elected in 2006
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Parliament elections held 2010 Next elections in 2014 325 seats in lower house
Council of Representatives Majority selects Prime Minister 8 seats reserved for minorities
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Maintaining democracy Easing internal strife Accommodating religious, ethnic differences Keeping meddlesome neighbors at bay
Iran Saudi Arabia Turkey
Suppressing terrorism Build up military…w/o alarming neighbors