GEOGLAM

Global Agricultural Monitoring

Dr. Selma Cherchali

on behalf of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor team

Land and Hydrology Program Manager

Science, Application and innovation Directorate, CNES

Co-Lead, CEOS - GEOGLAM AdHoc group, selma.cherchali@cnes.fr

With the contribution :Michel Deshayes2, Alyssa Whitcraft3 2 GEOGLAM Coordinator, mdeshayes@geosec.org

3 GEOGLAM Secretariat, CEOS liaison, awhitcraft@geoglam.org

World population and World area, yields and production in cereals (including rice), 1980/81 to 2010/11, base 100 in 1980/81; Source: INRA from USDA/PSD and FAOSTAT data

Challenge : Feeding the planet

World

Population

Yields

World Cereals

Production

Cropland area

2/18 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Monthly Wheat Prices 1960-2011($/Metric Ton) Source: World Bank

Nominal wheat price in US $/metric Ton

2008 Price hikes

Droughts:

Australia & Ukraine

2010/11 Price hikes

Drought: Russia

Landsat 1

Launched (1972)

1971/2’s price hike

Drought: Russia

Recent volatility of Agricultural Prices

Average Price

1972-2007: 150$

Average Price

2008-2012: 300$

Average Price

1960-1972: 75$

3/18 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

GEOGLAM : improve information on supply (GEO)

• Two initiatives to increase information availability, quality and transparency :

AMIS : improve information on markets (FAO)

G20 Agriculture Priority, Nov. 2011

AMIS & GEOGLAM

Trade

Demand

Stocks

Prices

Policies

Finance

AMIS

Supply

4/18 4/19

World Bank

UNITED NATIONS

HLTF Food Security

Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Policy Framework for GEOGLAM: 2011 & 2016

Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

GEOGLAM is a « coordination programme », aiming at

- supporting, strengthening and articulating existing efforts

- developing capacities and awareness at national & global level

- disseminating information

GEOGLAM Objectives

• To strengthen the international community’s capacity

to produce & disseminate relevant, timely and accurate information & forecasts

on agricultural production at national, regional & global scales,

through reinforced use of Earth Observations

6/XX

GEOGLAM Achievements

1. Crop Monitor for AMIS

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for AMIS (1/2)

• Crop Monitor for AMIS: operational since Sept. 2013 ! – 39 institutions (17 countries + EC + 8 intern. org., leader: Univ. Maryland)

• A presentation of results with graphics and text (1/3) a. a global map for the 4 AMIS crops

End of August 2016 Crop Conditions

+ a global map, with drivers, for each crop

End of August 2016 Maize Conditions

8/19

– symbols to explain reasons for bad conditions

9

Achievements

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for AMIS (2/2)

• A presentation of results with graphics and text (cont’)

c. 4 synthetic pie-charts – sectors proportional to countries average share of world production

Wheat

Maize

Soybean

– colors according to local crop conditions

Rice Production End October 15

Rice Export End October 15

(on Crop Monitor Website)

9/19

August 13th 2012

USA

Russia

Kazakhstan Ukraine

China

India

Canada

Non Cropland

Not shown

EO allows synoptic, quick detection of crop crises

NDVI tracks crop growth – can indicate condition

No change

Worse than

average

Better than

average

Becker-Reshef et al.

Average

normal year

NDVI Profile

on-going year

anomaly

NDVI = ------------------- Red - InfraRed

Red + InfraRed Use of NDVI, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index :

GEOGLAM became the 11th member of the AMIS Secretariat in 2016

• First time the international community comes together to produce operational crop

assessments with 40 contributing organizations & Ministries of Agriculture

• Strong collaboration between GEOGLAM and AMIS

• Bridging the gap between the Earth Observations and Economics communities

• Crop Monitor operational since 2013

Crop Monitor is an integral part of the AMIS Market Monitor

GEOGLAM Achievements

1. Crop Monitor for AMIS

2. Crop Monitor for Early Warning

Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW)

• From February 2016, a new bulletin

– with GEOGLAM partners having Monitoring activities on Countries at Risk :

FAO (GIEWS), WFP (VAM), USA (FEWSNET), EU (JRC-FS), CN (CropWatch-FS)…

– 83 countries covered

14/19

First Crop Monitor for Early Warning, Feb. 2016 Consensus Map highlighting the poor conditions in Southern Africa for Maize

3 more drivers:

•Pest & Disease

•Socio-Political

•Delayed Onset

1 new

condition:

Failure

15/19

GEOGLAM Achievements

1. Crop Monitor for AMIS

2. Crop Monitor for Early Warning

3. Global Crop Monitoring

Achievements

Global Crop Monitoring

about 94% of world agricultural area…

17/19 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

GEOGLAM Achievements

1. Crop Monitor for AMIS

2. Crop Monitor for Early Warning

3. Global Crop Monitoring

4. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

SDG#2 “End Hunger”

GEOGLAM Crop Monitors & Economics

• Information Asymmetry (IA) theory

– IA Theory: study of decisions in transactions where one party has

more or better information than the other

– IA consequences : transactions going sometimes awry,

with in worst cases market failure

– From 1970, series of papers by Akerlof, by Spence and by Stiglitz

– 2001: Nobel Price in Economics awarded to Akerlof, Spence & Stiglitz

• GEOGLAM and Information (a)symmetry

– By producing & openly disseminating relevant, timely and accurate

information and forecasts on agricultural production…

… GEOGLAM contributes to an efficient functioning of markets.

19/19 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

SDG-2 “End Hunger”

Goal SDG-2 informed by Crop Monitors

By producing & openly disseminating relevant, timely and accurate

information and forecasts on agricultural production…

… GEOGLAM fully contributes to SDG Indicator 2.c

1. Global / Regional

System of Systems

main producer countries,

major commodities

2. National Capacity

Building

for agricultural monitoring

using earth observation

3. Monitoring

countries at risk

food security assessment

4. EO data coordination

5. Method improvement through R&D coordination

6. Data products and information dissemination

Global Crop

Monitor

(UMD)

Joint Experiment for

Crop Assessment &

Monitoring – JECAM

(AAFC – UCL)

Rangelands

& PastureProductivity

(RAPP-CSIRO)

CB projects in

Argentina, Mongolia, Pakistan, Ukraine…

Close links with

Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)

EC FP7 SIGMA projectStimulating Innovation for

Global Monitoring of Agri-

culture and its Impact on

the Environment in support

of GEOGLAM (VITO)STARS (BM Gates)

Spurring a Transfor-

mation for Agricul-

ture through Remote

Sensing (ITC-UMD)

Asia-RiCE

reporting to

GCM (JAXA-

ASEAN)

Asia-RiCE

develop and

transfer of

methods

(JAXA-ASEAN)

GEONetCast

Satellite Broadcasting

Data services

prototypes developed/ testedNASA/CEOS SEO

ESA projects:

• SEN2-FOR-AGRI (UCL)

4 Agri. Products +

Software + 4 Use cases

• GEORICE (CESBIO)

Radar for Rice growth

monitoring

Crop Monitor

for

Early Warning

Mature / On going

Emerging or R&D

R&D Past / FinishingSelma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

GEOGLAM Activities

22/19

Ideas and Challenges ahead…

• GEOGLAM implementation at regional level is critical

– Regional networks share common priorities, confront common challenges: • Common cultivars, agricultural systems

• Can have common impacts of regional climate variability (e.g. El Nino)

• Challenges with data accessibility (computational infrastructure)

• Challenges with EO method adoption/use (capacity development)

• Market connections

• Strong capacity development focus – encouraging South-South transfer

• Current Regional Networks:

– Asia-RiCE

– GEOGLAM Latinoamérica (AmeriGEOSS Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture Working Group)

– AfriGAM – relationship with AfriGEOSS

• Idea: a Rangeland & Pasture Productivity (RAPP) Monitor for Early Warning – Towards a Crop & Rangeland Monitor for Early Warning CRM4EW

• R&D projects ending, new projects…a new era : Sentinels bu not only ..mutil-missions – Ended: STARS (Gates), Georice

– Ending soon: EC-SIGMA, ESA-Sen2-Agri, GeoRice…

– Just started: ESA-Food Security TEP (Thematic Exploitation Platform)

– Recent calls, results expected:

• China (MOST), USA (ROSES), France (TOSCA), EC (SFS-43)…

• Capacity Development activities – Setting up a Directory of existing CD material

– Objective: a set of e-learning modules, in different languages, accessible online…

23/19 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Achievements Summary

• Strong and sustained G20 Policy Mandate

• Developed a OPEN Community of Practice engaged in achieving the GEO strategic

targets for agriculture

• Attained Flagship Status recognition from GEO Programme Board

• Developed two global Crop Monitors – for AMIS, for Early Warning

– Opportunities to tailor to national settings

• Established a network of R&D pilot sites across the globe for developing best practices (JECAM - Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment & Monitoring, www.jecam.org) – supplemented by

SIGMA, Sentinel-2-Agri, Asia-RiCE, Georice and BMGF STARS

• Developed Asia-RiCE, new regional system for Rice Crop Estimation & Monitoring

• Launch of 2 additional regional networks with strong capacity development component:

– GEOGLAM Latinoamerica

– AfriGAM

Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Achievements Summary

• Developed a set of global baseline datasets (crop masks and calendars; field size)

• Developed space-based Earth observation requirements

• CEOS coordination of space-based EO acquisition

• Prototyped multiple cloud-based and web-enabled EO monitoring systems

– GLAM, Crop Monitor, ESA Thematic Exploitation Platform, JAXA INAHOR/JASMIN, THEIA Land Data

Center, CEOS Data Cube…

• Engaged national governments in developing capacity for incorporating EO into their

crop projections system (Argentina, Australia, Mexico, Pakistan, Ukraine…)

– Coordination with CEOS and space agencies for resource sharing

• Presented GEOGLAM at high level meetings such as G8 Open Data for Agriculture

• Established linkages with AgMIP, USDA LTAR/LTER, and other initiatives

• Contributions to the UN SDGs, with possibility for greater engagement in contributing to,

monitoring, and measuring progress

Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Operational R&D continued

• New in 2017: JECAM SAR Intercomparison Project

– Crop biophysical (LAI/biomass) experiment (Heather McNairn)

– Crop type mapping (Andrew Davidson, AAFC)

• Sentinel-2 for Agriculture (http://www.esa-sen2agri.org/)

– a fully automatic production system to produce agriculture information from

Sentinel-2 data, with a focus on food security applications.

– final user meeting was held in Rome at Food and Agriculture Organization and

World Food Program

– develop, demonstrate and facilitate the Sentinel-2 time series contribution to the

satellite EO component of agriculture monitoring

– provide validated algorithms, open source code and best practices to process Sentinel-

2 data in an operational manner for major worldwide representative agriculture

systems distributed all over the world.

• GEORICE : next examples

• SIGMA – Stimulating Innovation for the Global Monitoring of Agriculture

(www.geoglam-sigma.info)

– Identify, map, & assess croplands and agriculture at multiple scales

Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Service concept : Dedicated to the rice monitoring

using Copernicus Sentinel-1 data

Features :

Rice Map Season rice map

Crop intensity

+

+ +

Phenology

Screen shot

Comparison between 2 seasons rice maps

Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Vinh Long

GEORiCE Rice monitoring using Sentinel-1A data

03-02-2015

Long Xuyen

Can Tho

Thap Muoi

Rice: early stage

Rice: tillering stage

Rice: reproductive stage

Rice: maturity stage

Non rice (forest, other LULC)

Water (ocean, river, aquaculture) Land outside the Vietnam Mekong delta

03-02-2015 27-02-2015

Vinh Long

27-02-2015

Long Xuyen

Can Tho Vinh Long

23-03-2015

Long Xuyen

Can Tho

Thap Muoi

23-03-2015

Vinh Long

04-04-2015

Long Xuyen

Can Tho

Thap Muoi

Mekong Delta, Vietnam

300 km x 300 km

20 m resolution

04-04-2015

Monitoring of Winter-Spring rice

100 km x 70 km, 20 m resolution

29/XX

Summary & the Way Forward

• Crop Monitors providing a public good: open, timely, science-driven,

actionable information on global crop conditions

– Already informing decisions

• Develop a portfolio of a new generation of products (Sentinels, and

other and other multisource data): R&D projects

• Bridging the gap between the policy/econ and EO communities

– Ensuring user community is driving the satellite monitoring research agenda

• Increasing communication and knowledge transfer amongst countries

and monitoring systems

– Thereby strengthening national monitoring systems

• Strong focus on strengthening national partnerships; expanding

participation in regional networks and national systems, particularly

in ‘countries at risk’

Agriculture and the Food production

Challenges

– Increase of food production (and reduction of waste and loss)

– Adaptation to climate change (and contribution to mitigation)

– Reduction of environmental impacts

• Fertilizer pollution, soil degradation, unsustainable water use, biodiversity

erosion, …

– Reduction of the volatility of commodity prices

– Improvement of food « quality » (traceability, organic products, …)

For which users ?

Markets and crisis management : Traders, GEOGLAM, WFP

Tactical management : precision farming, water management

Strategic management : new cropping systems, soil restoration, pest control,

water resources, …

Research : from fundamental processes to operational models

Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017

Thank You!

Contacts:

Selma.cherchali@cnes.fr (Selma Cherchali, CNES)

Bradley.doorn@nasa.gov (Bradley Doorn, NASA HQ)

ireshef@geoglam.org (Inbal Becker-Reshef, Crop Monitor lead,

GEOGLAM Secretariat)

Follow us on Twitter: @G20_GEOGLAM @GEOCropMonitor www.geoglam.org www.cropmonitor.org

Crop Monitor for AMIS Partners Crop Monitor for

Early Warning Partners

mdeshayes@geosec.org (Michel Deshayes)

awhitcraft@geoglam.org (Alyssa Whitcraft)