Generation of Historical Vulnerability Indices using a DesInventar Database
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Generation of Historical Vulnerability Indices using
a DesInventar Database
Julio Serje, Deepa Chavali and Sujit Mohanty
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Introduction• Concept• The InDisData project• Methodology and Tool - DesInventar• The Orissa Experience• Qualitative results
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in·dex (în¹dèks´) noun plural in·dex·es or in·di·ces (-dî-sêz´)
a. Something that serves to guide, point out, or otherwise facilitate reference…
b. A number derived from a formula, used to characterize a set of data…
Excerpted from The American Heritage« Dictionary of the English Language, Third Edition ® 1996 by Houghton Mifflin Company..
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Historical Vulnerability
• Patterns: repeated periodic occurrence of losses
• Trends: increasing magnitude of losses• Impact: high losses being caused by low
magnitude events
Will be defined and calculated based on:
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The InDisData Project• A database of disasters to understand trends and
patterns. • A systematic geo-referenced inventory of small,
medium and large-scale disasters for past 30 years.• To rationalize decision making for disaster
preparedness, as well as providing an objective base for vulnerability assessment and priority setting.
• To support planning & policy decisions for disaster preparedness and mitigation.
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Orissa Pilot Process• Data collected for 30 districts and 314 blocks from
newspapers over a period of 32 years.• Data collected from media is compared with
Government records.• Institutionalization with Government for
sustainability.• Interpretation and analysis of the data shows new
dimensions of risk & vulnerabilities of the State.• Orissa ‘Vulnerability Analysis Report’ is being
prepared in association with ‘Center for Development Studies’.
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DesInventar
• A methodology• A tool• The previous experience in Latin America
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DesInventar
Methodology
• Disaggregation of the effects• Geo-referenced data • Inclusion of Small and Medium Disasters
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DesInventarThe Software ToolsStand-alone and Web-enabled version
http://www.desinventar.org
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Preliminary Findings
• Epidemics and cyclones are the greatest causes of deaths
• Epidemics are highly associated with floods, but also occur as independent incidents.
• Fire is the greatest cause of household destruction, comparable to Cyclone.
• Floods affect people more than any other type of disaster.
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Impact on Life
Number of people killed in disasters in Orisa
Epidemics (19,963)
Cyclone
(20,449)
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Impact on PropertyNumber of Houses Destroyed in Disasters Orissa
Fire
(436,212)
Cyclone (376,285)
Floods (135485)
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Impact on LivelihoodNumber of people affected
Flood (31’395,654)
Cyclone(11’633,140)
Drought(3’408,999)
Rains (3’776,359)
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Patterns: floodsTotal number of Victims and Affected by Floods in Orissa
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Pattern: EpidemicsPeople Killed by Epidemics in Orissa
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Spatial Distribution of Disasters
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Relation Floods-Epidemics
Number of reports of floods and people killed by epidemics, 11 years, with apparently non-flood related epidemics.
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Spatial Distribution of Floods and Epidemics
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Relation Floods-Epidemics
Number of reports in floods and people killed by epidemics, 11 years, in 5 less-flood prone districts.
Districts of Koraput, Kandhamal, Kalahand, Rayadada and Gajapat
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Trend: Epidemics
Ascending trend of the effects of epidemics in Orissa.
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Trend: Fire effects on Housing
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Pattern: Fire SeasonalSeasonal Variation in Fire Pattern
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Way forward:
• Definition of a methodology to generate a numeric index based on trends, patterns and impact
• Calculation of these indices for Orissa• Comparison of these indices against other
vulnerability index• Fine tuning of the whole process• Use of the indices in Risk Assessment
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InDisData is supported by:Ministry of Home Affairs
National Institute of Disaster Management NIDM
United Nations Development Programme UNDP
The Network for Social Studies on Disaster Prevention in Latin America
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THANK YOU