General Overview of Key Information Industry Trends

© 2008 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.

Online Information 2008

4th December 2008

Kate Worlock

Director/Lead Analyst

[email protected]

General Overview of Key Information Industry Trends

22© 2007 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.

Our Company• The only worldwide business information firm

serving the media and information industry• Global team of 50+• Track 9 segments in the US, Europe, and Asia • Provide fact-based analysis of markets, companies, trends,

technology• Deliver actionable advice to CEOs and their teams in 300+

firms• Offer subscription, membership, and custom consulting

services


2007 Information Industry - $391 Billion


Looking Forward: Growth Rates are Expected to Dip, then Recover


This Picture Changes for the Better if we Exclude the News Segment


Without News and SAS, We’re Heading for a Dip, then a Recovery

Source: Outsell’s Publishers & Information Providers Database

26.0%

11.9%

-1.0%-3.0%

7.2%

14.9%16.8%18.9%

26.1%25.1%

2.7%0.5%

-6.6%-3.0%

-6.0%

7.1%6.5%6.7%8.4%9.7%

6.8%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (P) 2010 (P) 2011 (P)

Search, Aggregation & Syndication News Info Industry w/o SAS & News


So Which Segments will Drive Growth?


STM Growth Continues Strongly...


...While News Fares Less Well


Received Wisdom: the Impact of Recession• In an economic downturn,

subscription-based businesses suffer late on in the cycle, and take longer to recover•Media businesses such as Yellow

Pages and classified advertising provide a very good barometer – they are early casualties, but also early to recover


Received Wisdom Doesn’t Apply This Time• We have already seen print-based classified

advertising collapse• If the market has therefore already changed

structurally, then many businesses will have a greater reliance on online advertising this time round • Online is cheaper for advertisers, so there should

be less impact in a recession• Indeed, we have still seen no falling away in online

advertising, although print ad revenues are down


Outsell’s Outlook for 2009

1. Slower growth, but not decline

2. Asia and EMEA are drivers but off a small base

3. Online ads challenged

4. Content + Software + Community = Workflow & Process Reinvention

5. Growth in ‘personal’ content (iPhone, Kindle)

6. Nature of search changes

7. Less large-scale business model experimentation and M&A activity

8. More open everything

9. Market Share Muscle

10. Design & experience provide the new value-add


Some broader publishing themes: 1. The changing nature of search• Growing importance of semantic search• Example: Hakia, illumin8

• Demand for delivery of search results in a more visual way, indicating links between results• Example: Grokker, Collexis

• Moving from a push to a pull model • Example: Reed Business’ use of its Zibb search engine

• Movement away from search to discovery• Example: Aggregate Knowledge

• Increasing demand for search to operate effectively across multiple content types (text, video, audio, images)

• Needs to continue to prove value as importance of personal recommendations increases

• Use of search across unstructured, untagged content: growing acceptance that relying on users to tag data is foolhardy, since either they don’t do it, or the results are patchy


2. The convergence of information and software

MercuryMD


3. The integration of content with user workflow

• Productivity:

• Decision-making:

• Compliance:

• building project databases

• developing evidence-based research

• supporting research direction

• finding, creating or adopting appropriate analytical tools

• ensuring regulatory framework is in place

• creating awareness of parallel initiatives

“Research” may mean individual projects, but it is also collaborative and community-driven


4. The growing importance of “the cloud”


5. The evolution of publishing: thru’ Web 2.0 towards Enterprise 2.0

Enterprise IT Services (SAP, Oracle, Microsoft)

Community

Third Party Content Suppliers

Process Automation/Optimisation

Workflow/Process

SaaS

(Software as a Service)

(Web Services)Ajax-based tools

development)

Open Source, Mash Ups

Search

Vertical, Personalised


So by 2020…• All services are digital• All services are mobile-proficient, and reflect high user

expectations for point of reference information• All services are fully customisable to groups of

network users (corporations) and fully personalisable to individuals• All services display high intelligence factors, and

observe standards that allow maximum interoperability• All services are funded by multiple revenue sources,

using inter-service revenue reconciliation which is not apparent to the user• All services can be delivered via the “cloud”


A final thought….

“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but rather the one most responsive to

change”Charles Darwin

© 2008 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.

http://www.outsellinc.com

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General Overview of Key Information Industry Trends

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