GDPE0773ICR- Singapore Power Market Outlook … · ... PUBLICATION DATE MAY 2015 SINGAPORE POWER...

REFERENCE CODE GDPE0773ICR | PUBLICATION DATE MAY 2015

SINGAPORE POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS,

AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Singapore Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

SINGAPORE POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Executive Summary

Singapore’s Power Market Outlook

As a global economic stalwart, Singapore is

characterized by a lack of domestic energy

resources but huge success in harnessing its work

force and economic resources. It is an entrepôt

economy, meaning that it imports resources and

re-exports them after significant value addition.

The services sector is the leading contributor to its

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), contributing more

than XX%. Between 2000 and 2014, the GDP (at

constant prices) increased at a Compound Annual

Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%. Power consumption,

of which the manufacturing and services sector is

the leading contributor, also increased, at a CAGR

of XX%.

Power Market, Singapore, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2014

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Ann

ual p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n (T

Wh)

GD

P ($

bn)

GDP (constant prices) Annual power consumption Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2014 TWh: Terawatt hours

Between 2000 and 2014, annual power

consumption increased from XX TWh to XX TWh,

owing to economic and population growth. Annual

electricity generation increased from XX TWh to

XX TWh, at a CAGR of XX%. Renewable

generation is still in its nascent stages and the

growth in electricity generation came almost

entirely from thermal sources.

Power Market, Singapore, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), 2000–2014

2000 2007 2014

Annu

al p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n an

d ge

nera

tion

(TW

h)

Annual power consumption Annual power generation Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 2, 2015]


Table of Contents


1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4

1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 7

1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 8

2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 9

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance ............................................................................................ 10

3 Singapore, Power Market, Snapshot ......................................................................................... 11

3.1 Singapore, Power Market, Macro-economic Factors ......................................................... 11

3.2 Singapore, Power Market, Supply Security ....................................................................... 13

3.3 Singapore, Power Market, Opportunities ........................................................................... 14

3.4 Singapore, Power Market, Challenges .............................................................................. 14

4 Singapore, Power Market, Market Analysis ............................................................................... 15

4.1 Singapore, Power Market, Supply Structure ...................................................................... 15

4.1.1 Structure of National Electricity Market of Singapore ..................................................... 15

4.1.2 Players in National Electricity Market of Singapore........................................................ 16

4.2 Singapore, Power Market, Key Market Players ................................................................. 18

4.3 Singapore, Power Market, Financial Deals ........................................................................ 19

4.3.1 Deal Volume and Value Analysis, 2004 to March 2015 ................................................. 19

4.3.2 Deals by Type, 2014 ..................................................................................................... 21

4.4 Singapore, Power Market, Demand Structure ................................................................... 22

4.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2014 ............................................................................ 24

5 Singapore, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario........................................................................ 25

5.1 Singapore, Power Market, Electricity Act........................................................................... 25

5.1.1 Electricity Licenses ........................................................................................................ 25

5.2 Singapore Energy Policy ................................................................................................... 26

5.2.1 Renewable Energy in Singapore ................................................................................... 26

6 Singapore, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview ................................................. 28


Table of Contents


6.1 Singapore, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Fuel Type, 2013 ................. 28

6.2 Singapore, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2025 ........................................................................................................................ 29

6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2025 ................................................................................................................... 32

6.2.2 Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2030 ................................................................................................ 36

7 Singapore, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview ......................................... 39

7.1 Singapore, Power Market, Transmission Overview ........................................................... 39

7.1.1 Upcoming Projects ........................................................................................................ 40

7.2 Singapore, Power Market, Distribution Overview .............................................................. 40

7.3 Singapore, Power Market, Grid Interconnection ................................................................ 41

7.4 Singapore, Power Market, Electricity Trading .................................................................... 42

8 Singapore, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies ............................................................................................................................... 43

8.1 Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Senoko Energy Pte Ltd. ........................... 43

8.1.1 Company Overview ....................................................................................................... 43

8.1.2 Business Description ..................................................................................................... 43

8.1.3 SWOT Overview ........................................................................................................... 44

8.2 Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: YTL PowerSeraya Pte. Limited ................ 47



8.2.3 SWOT Overview ........................................................................................................... 48

8.3 Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Tuas Power Ltd. ...................................... 51



8.3.3 SWOT Overview ........................................................................................................... 53

8.4 Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Keppel Merlimau Cogen Pte Ltd .............. 56



Table of Contents



8.4.3 SWOT Overview ........................................................................................................... 57

8.5 Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Sembcorp Cogen Pte Ltd ........................ 60



8.5.3 SWOT Overview ........................................................................................................... 61

9 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 64

9.1 Market Definitions ............................................................................................................. 64

9.1.1 Power ............................................................................................................................ 64

9.1.2 Installed Capacity .......................................................................................................... 64

9.1.3 Electricity Generation .................................................................................................... 64

9.1.4 Electricity Consumption ................................................................................................. 64

9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant ..................................................................................................... 64

9.1.6 Hydropower Plant .......................................................................................................... 64

9.1.7 Nuclear Power............................................................................................................... 64

9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources ...................................................................................... 65

9.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 65

9.3 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 66

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology ................................................................................................ 66

9.5 Coverage .......................................................................................................................... 67

9.5.1 Secondary Research and Analysis ................................................................................ 67

9.5.2 Primary Research and Analysis..................................................................................... 68

9.6 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 68


Table of Contents


1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, Singapore, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019 ................................................................................................. 13

Table 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 .................. 18

Table 3: Power Market, Singapore, Deal Value ($m) and Number of Deals, 2004 to March 2015............... 21

Table 4: Power Market, Singapore, Deals by Type (%), 2013 .................................................................... 22

Table 5: Power Market, Singapore, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 ................................. 23

Table 6: Power Market, Singapore, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ........................................... 24

Table 7: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ....................... 28

Table 8: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation

(TWh), 2000–2025 ...................................................................................................................... 31

Table 9: Power Market, Singapore, Leading Thermal Power Plants (MW), 2014 ........................................ 33

Table 10: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ............................................................................ 35

Table 11: Power Market, Singapore, Number and Installed Capacity of Solar PV Installations (kWac), 2009–

2014............................................................................................................................................ 36

Table 12: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity and Annual

Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2025 .................................................................................. 38

Table 13: Power Market, Singapore, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 ..................................... 39

Table 14: Power Market, Singapore, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 ........................................ 41

Table 15: Power Market, Singapore, Senoko Energy Pte Ltd., SWOT Profile, 2014 ..................................... 44

Table 16: Power Market, Singapore, YTL PowerSeraya Pte. Limited, SWOT Profile, 2014 .......................... 49

Table 17: Power Market, Singapore, Tuas Power Ltd., SWOT Profile, 2014 ................................................ 54

Table 18: Power Market, Singapore, Keppel Merlimau Cogen Pte Ltd, SWOT Profile, 2014 ........................ 57

Table 19: Power Market, Singapore, Sembcorp Cogen Pte Ltd, SWOT Profile, 2014 .................................. 61

Table 20: Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 65


Table of Contents


1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, Singapore, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019 ................................................................................................. 12

Figure 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 .................. 18

Figure 3: Power Market, Singapore, Deal Value ($m) and Number of Deals, 2004 to March 2015............... 20

Figure 4: Power Market, Singapore, Deals by Type (%), 2014 .................................................................... 21

Figure 5: Power Market, Singapore, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 ................................. 22

Figure 6: Power Market, Singapore, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ........................................... 24

Figure 7: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ....................... 28

Figure 8: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation

(TWh), 2000–2025 ...................................................................................................................... 30

Figure 9: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ............................................................................ 34

Figure 10: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ....................................................................... 37



Introduction

2 Introduction

The Singapore economy is one of the most developed and successful in the world. However, it is

not an entirely free-market economy. It can most aptly be described as a mixed economic system.

The government promotes free-market policies, but strong government intervention has been

observed in land, labor and other capital resources.

Singapore’s economic system, where the state and market forces play equally strong roles in

governance, has become a model for economic growth for many countries that aspire to economic-

hub status. This unique system evolved as a result of Singapore’s lack of natural resources, small

size and limited human resources.

Since the 1960s, the government has focused on economic policies aimed at encouraging Foreign

Direct Investment (FDI) and international trade, mainly owing to a limited domestic market. The

scarcity of land has also mandated strong governmental land regulations.

The services sector dominates Singapore’s economy, and is followed in dominance by the

industrial sector. There is no agricultural sector. In 2014, the services sector contributed an

estimated XX% of Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the remaining XX% was

contributed by the industrial sector (CIA, 2014).

International trade is very important to Singapore’s economy. As Singapore lacks mineral

resources and agricultural produce, it depends on trade to import these items. It has very few trade

barriers, and most of the restrictions that it places on imports are based on environmental, health,

and public security concerns.

Singapore is also a significant exporter and, in 2013, was ranked the 15th largest exporter in the

world (CIA, 2014). It is a major exporter of digital and electronic items, which it manufactures. It is

expected that biomedical and pharmaceutical goods, which are being promoted by government

policies, will also become major export items. A large section of its exports is what is known as

entrepôt trading, that is, re-exports. Re-exports generally constitute between XX% and XX% of

Singapore’s total exports. Crude oil, which Singapore imports, refines, and then exports, is one of

the most important commodities that Singapore re-exports.

Generally, Singapore does not import or export any electricity. All the power that it needs is

generated within Singapore and is also consumed within it. Power consumption is expected to

increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%, between 2015 and 2025.



Introduction

The power sector is regulated by the Energy Market Authority (EMA), which falls under the energy

division of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The wholesale electricity market is regulated by

the Energy Market Company (EMC). The government has policies that favor the growth of

renewable power, but it is reluctant to provide either subsidies or Feed-in Tariffs (FiT). This is due

to its desire for the sector to grow into a robust system that is not dependent on the government for

survival.

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance

The executive summary captures the key growth trends in the Singapore power market.

Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters that impact Singapore’s power sector

and key points about the power market.

Chapter four provides an analysis of the Singapore power market.

Chapter five details the regulatory scenario of the power market and the FDI scenario in

Singapore.

Chapter six provides information on Singapore’s cumulative installed capacity and annual

generation trends, by individual generation source.

Chapter seven describes the power transmission and distribution infrastructure in Singapore

and provides information on interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also

covers electricity imports and exports and upcoming grid-related projects in Singapore.

Note: All 2014 market numbers provided in the report are estimates, except where actual data were

available.



Market Analysis

4.2 Singapore, Power Market, Key Market Players

Senoko Energy was the largest power generation utility in Singapore in 2014 with an estimated

share of XX%, followed by PowerSeraya, with a share of XX%, and Tuas Power, with a share of

XX%. Keppel Merlimau had a share of XX%, while PacificLight and SembCorp had a share of XX%

and XX%, respectively. The remaining share of XX% was contributed by other smaller power

generation companies.

Figure 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014

Senoko Energy

PowerSerayaTuas Power

Keppel Merlimau

PacificLight

SembCorpOther

Source: GlobalData

Table 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 Company Share

Senoko Energy

PowerSeraya

Tuas Power

Keppel Merlimau

PacificLight

SembCorp

Other

Source: GlobalData



Capacity and Generation Overview

6.2 Singapore, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2025

Cumulative installed capacity increased from XX GW in 2000 to XX GW in 2014, at a CAGR of

XX%. Thermal power capacity was the mainstay of power generation during this period and is

expected to remain so during the 2015–2025 forecast period. It is expected to decrease at a

negative CAGR of XX%, while total installed capacity is expected to decrease at a negative CAGR

of XX%. In 2025, total installed capacity and installed thermal capacity are expected to be XX GW

and XX GW, respectively.

Singapore did not have any coal-based power until 2012. Its installed coal capacity was XX MW in

2013 and increased to XX MW in 2014. Oil-based power capacity decreased at a negative CAGR

of XX% from 2000 to 2014, while gas-based generation increased steadily at a CAGR of XX%

during this period. The importance of gas-based generation has increased owing to a rise in the

number of Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power plants, which are more efficient and

release fewer emissions.

Renewable power generation in Singapore comes mostly from biomass power plants and solar PV

installations. The growth of renewables in Singapore has been slow. Its installed renewable power

capacity increased by only XX%, between 2000 and 2014, but is expected to grow at a CAGR of

XX%, between 2015 and 2025.

The considerable proportion of thermal power generation in total power generation is reflected in

the fact that annual thermal power generation and annual total power generation each grew by

XX% between 2000 and 2014. Annual thermal generation is expected to increase at a CAGR of

XX% during the forecast period, reaching XX TWh in 2025.




Figure 8: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Annu

al p

ower

gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

Cum

ulat

ive

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (G

W)

Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 1, 2015]




Table 8: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025

Year Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 1, 2015]


Appendix


9 Appendix

9.1 Market Definitions

9.1.1 Power

Power refers to the rate of production, transfer or energy use, usually related to electricity. It is

measured in Watts (W) and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known

as real power or active power.

9.1.2 Installed Capacity

Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity, as stated by the manufacturer, or

the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. It is given in Megawatts (MW) on

a nameplate affixed to the generator.

9.1.3 Electricity Generation

Electricity generation refers to the process of generating electricity from other forms of energy. It

also refers to the amount of electricity produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.4 Electricity Consumption

Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports and

transmission and distribution losses. It is measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant

A thermal power plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.

9.1.6 Hydropower Plant

A hydropower plant is a plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling water.

9.1.7 Nuclear Power

Nuclear power is the energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.


Appendix


9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources

Renewable energy resources are those that provide energy that is naturally replenished but limited

in the amount of energy available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar, small hydro and

wind are examples of renewable resources.

9.2 Abbreviations

Table 20: Abbreviations ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

CCGT Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine

CCP Combined Cycle Plant

Ckm Circuit kilometer

EMA Energy Market Authority

EMC Energy Market Company

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

FiT Feed-in Tariff

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GW Gigawatt

GWh Gigawatt hours

kV kilovolt

kW kilowatt

kWac kilowatt alternating current

MSSL Market Support Services Licensee

MTI Ministry of Trade and Industry

MW Megawatt

NEMS National Electricity Market of Singapore

SP Singapore Power Group

TWh Terawatt hour

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Source: GlobalData


Appendix


9.3 Bibliography

CIA (2014). Singapore: The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Available from:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sn.html [Accessed on April 1,

2015]

EMA, 2014a. Generating Plants Availability – Outage & Remaining Capacity [database].

Available from: http://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Generating%20Plant%20Availability.xls

[Accessed on April 1, 2015]

EMA, 2014b. Monthly Peak System Demand [database]. Available from:

http://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Monthly%20Peak-System-Demand.xls [Accessed on April 1,

2015]

EMA, 2014c. Solar PV Installations by Planning Region [database]. Available from:

http://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/MSC3.xls [Accessed

on April 1, 2015]

IMF, 2014. World Economic Outlook [database]. Available from:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/index.aspx [Accessed on April 1,

2015]

SEAS (2014). SEAS White Paper on Accelerating Renewable Energy in Singapore.

Sustainable Energy Association of Singapore, 2014. Available from:

http://www.seas.org.sg/resources/presentationpapers [Accessed on April 1, 2015]

Webb S (2013), via DLA Piper Australia. “Singapore: Renewable energy in the Asia Pacific: a

legal overview (3rd edition) – Singapore”, Mondaq, September 11, 2013. Available from:

http://www.mondaq.com/x/261468/Renewables/Renewable+energy+in+the+Asia+Pacific+a+le

gal+overview+3rd+edition+Singapore [Accessed on April 1, 2015]

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology

GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with

advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the

energy industry.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and

Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).


Appendix


All of GlobalData’s databases are continuously updated and revised. The following methodology

has been followed for the collection and analysis of data presented in this report.

9.5 Coverage

This report covers the Singapore power market, examining the market structure and providing

historical generation, capacity and consumption forecasts until 2025. It also looks at the market’s

regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and

upcoming power projects.

9.5.1 Secondary Research and Analysis

The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of

secondary resources including but not limited to:

Government agencies, ministry websites, industry associations, the World Bank, IMF, and

statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, analyst reports and investor

presentations

Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature

GlobalData’s proprietary databases such as the Capacity and Generation Database, Power

Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database

Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project Singapore’s

power market scenario to 2025, analyzing factors such as:

Macro-economic scenario

Government regulations, policies and targets

Government and private sector investment

Contract and deal announcements

Utility expansion plans

The sector’s historical track record


Appendix


Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites,

annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry

associations

9.5.2 Primary Research and Analysis

Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants

to verify the market numbers obtained through secondary research and obtain first-hand

information on industry trends.

The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including power producers,

equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and

academia. The participants include but are not limited to C-level executives, industry consultants,

academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant

managers, government officials and industry spokespersons.

9.6 Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any

form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior

permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission.

GDPE0773ICR- Singapore Power Market Outlook … · ... PUBLICATION DATE MAY 2015 SINGAPORE POWER...

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