GDPE0656ICR-Philippines Power Market Outlook … Power Market Outlook to 2030 ... First Philippine...

Philippines Power Market Outlook to 2030 Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape

GDPE0656ICR / Published April 2013

GDPE0656ICR / Published APR 2013 Philippines Power Market Outlook to 2030 – Market Trends, Regulations

and Competitive Landscape © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form

Thermal Installed Capacity Dominates in Philippines

Cumulative installed power capacity in the Philippines amounted to an estimated XX Megawatts (MW) in 2012. Thermal power was the highest contributor, accounting for a XX% share of cumulative installed capacity, equivalent to XX MW. Coal-fired power plants accounted for the majority of thermal installed capacity in the country, followed by oil- and gas-fired power plants. In future, the share of thermal power is expected to decline, as the government is seeking to increase the share of domestic renewable sources in its energy mix. However, thermal capacity is expected to continue to dominate through 2030. During the forecast period from 2013 to 2030, thermal installed capacity is expected to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%.

Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2000,2006, 2012

2000 2006 2012

Ther

mal

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (M

W)

Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on September 24, 2012]

Continued Growth in Power Generation

Total electricity generation in the Philippines in 2012 amounted to an estimated XX Gigawatt hours (GWh), having increased at a CAGR of XX% from 2000 to 2012. Thermal power generation contributed the highest share of XX% of total power generation in 2012, followed by renewable and hydropower, which contributed shares of XX% and XX% respectively. Population growth and increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are expected to drive the demand for electricity, which in turn will drive future power generation.

Power Market, Philippines, Annual Power Generation (GWh) 2000, 2006,2012

2000 2006 2012

Ann

ual p

ower

gen

erat

ion

(GW

h)


Renewable Energy to Contribute towards Attainment of National Energy Security

The government of the Philippines has been focusing on the expansion of the role of renewable energy in power generation. The country has the second largest geothermal energy resources in the world after the US. The country also possesses XX Gigawatts (GW) of wind potential and XX GW of hydro potential as of 2012. The government is therefore looking to develop and utilize these resources in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The deployment of renewable energy resources for power generation has the potential to support the country in the reduction of its reliance upon costly fuel imports. The 2008 Renewable Energy (RE) Law, which was initiated by the Department of Energy, aims to foster the development of renewable energy in the country in order to attain national energy security.



1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 3

1.1 List of Tables............................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 List of Figures............................................................................................................................ 5

2 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance ..................................................................................................... 6

3 Philippines, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator ................................................................. 7 3.1 Macro-Economic Factors........................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Supply Security ......................................................................................................................... 7 3.3 Generation Infrastructure........................................................................................................... 7 3.4 Transmission Infrastructure........................................................................................................ 8 3.5 Degree of Competition............................................................................................................... 8 3.6 Regulatory Scenario.................................................................................................................. 8 3.7 Future Potential......................................................................................................................... 9

4 Philippines Power Market Analysis, 2000–2030 .............................................................................. 10 4.1 Philippines, Power Market, Installed Capacity, 2000–2030........................................................ 10

4.1.1 Installed Capacity: Breakdown by Type of Power Plant, 2012........................................... 10 4.1.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2030........................ 11 4.1.3 Thermal Installed Capacity and Generation, 2000–2030 .................................................. 13 4.1.4 Hydropower Installed Capacity and Generation, 2000–2030............................................. 15 4.1.5 Renewable Power Installed Capacity and Generation, 2000–2030 ................................... 17

4.2 Philippines, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, 2000–2030 ........................................ 19 4.3 Philippines, Power Market, Power Consumption by Sector, 2012 .............................................. 21

5 Philippines, Power Market, Infrastructure Overview......................................................................... 22 5.1 Philippines, Power Market, Active Power Projects .................................................................... 22

5.1.1 Leading Thermal Power Projects..................................................................................... 22 5.1.2 Leading Hydropower Projects ......................................................................................... 23 5.1.3 Leading Renewable Power Projects ................................................................................ 24

5.2 Philippines, Power Market, Upcoming Power Projects .............................................................. 25 5.2.1 Leading Thermal Power Projects..................................................................................... 25 5.2.2 Leading Upcoming Hydropower Projects ......................................................................... 26 5.2.3 Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects................................................................ 27

5.3 Philippines, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview..................................................... 28 5.4 Philippines, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview........................................................ 29

6 Phillipines, Power Market,Regulatory Structure, Overview............................................................... 30 6.1 Philippines, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Overview ....................................................... 30 6.2 Privatization and Restructuring Reforms................................................................................... 30 6.3 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Philippines ........................................................... 31 6.4 Expanded Rural Electrification Program ................................................................................... 31

7 Philippines, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies.................................................................................................................................... 32

7.1 Philippines, Power Market, Market Share of Major Power Generating Companies ..................... 32 7.2 Key Companies in the Philippines Power Market, First Philippine Holdings Corporation............. 33

7.2.1 First Philippine Holdings Corporation, Company Overview ............................................... 33 7.2.2 First Philippine Holdings Corporation, Business Description ............................................. 33 7.2.3 First Philippine Holdings Corporation, SWOT Analysis ..................................................... 34

7.3 Key Companies in the Philippines Power Market, TeaM Energy................................................ 37 7.3.1 Company Overview ........................................................................................................ 37 7.3.2 Team Energy Corporation, Business Overview ................................................................ 37 7.3.3 Team Energy Corporation, SWOT Analysis ..................................................................... 37

7.4 Key Companies in the Philippines Power Market, KEPCO Philippines....................................... 39 7.4.1 KEPCO Philippines Corporation Company Overview ....................................................... 39 7.4.2 KEPCO Philippines Corporation, Business Description .................................................... 39 7.4.3 KEPCO Philippines Corporation, SWOT Analysis ............................................................ 39

7.5 Key Companies in the Philippines Power Market, National Power Corporation .......................... 41 7.5.1 National Power Corporation, Company Overview............................................................. 41 7.5.2 National Power Corporation, Business Description........................................................... 41 7.5.3 National Power Corporation, SWOT Analysis................................................................... 42

8 Appendix....................................................................................................................................... 44 8.1 Market Definitions.................................................................................................................... 44



8.1.1 Power............................................................................................................................. 44 8.1.2 Installed Capacity ........................................................................................................... 44 8.1.3 Active Installed Capacity ................................................................................................. 44 8.1.4 Electricity Generation...................................................................................................... 44 8.1.5 Electricity Consumption................................................................................................... 44 8.1.6 Thermal Power Plant ...................................................................................................... 44 8.1.7 Hydropower Plant ........................................................................................................... 44 8.1.8 Nuclear Power................................................................................................................ 44 8.1.9 Renewable Energy Resources ........................................................................................ 44

8.2 Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... 45 8.3 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 46 8.4 Coverage ................................................................................................................................ 46 8.5 GlobalData’s Methodology....................................................................................................... 47

8.5.1 Secondary research and analysis.................................................................................... 47 8.5.2 Primary Research and Analysis....................................................................................... 47

8.6 Contact Us .............................................................................................................................. 48 8.7 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................... 48



1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012 10 Table 2: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 12 Table 3: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 14 Table 4: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 16 Table 5: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 18 Table 6: Power Market, Philippines, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000–2030......................... 20 Table 7: Power Market, Philippines, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption by Sector (%), 2012......... 21 Table 8: Power Market, Philippines, Leading Active Thermal Power Projects, 2012............................ 22 Table 9: Power Market, Philippines, Leading Active Hydro Power Projects, 2012 ............................... 23 Table 10: Power Market, Philippines, Leading Active Renewable Power Projects, 2012 ....................... 24 Table 11: Power Market, Philippines, Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects, 2012...................... 25 Table 12: Power Market, Philippines, Leading Upcoming Hydro Power Projects, 2012 ......................... 26 Table 13: Power Market, Philippines, Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects, 2012 ................. 27 Table 14: Power Market, Philippines, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020............................. 28 Table 15: Power Market, Philippines, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), 2011 .. 32 Table 16: First Philippine Holdings Corporation, SWOT Analysis ......................................................... 34 Table 17: Team Energy Corporation, SWOT Analysis ......................................................................... 37 Table 18: KEPCO Philippines, SWOT Analysis ................................................................................... 39 Table 19: National Power Corporation, SWOT Analysis....................................................................... 42 Table 20: Abbreviations...................................................................................................................... 45

1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012 10 Figure 2: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 11 Figure 3: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 13 Figure 4: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 15 Figure 5: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation

(GWh), 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................. 17 Figure 6: Power Market, Philippines, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000–2030......................... 19 Figure 7: Power Market, Philippines, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption by Sector (%), 2012......... 21 Figure 8: Power Market, Philippines, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), 2011 .. 32



2 Introduction The Philippines is a sovereign country in Southeast Asia. The country is prone to earthquakes and typhoons but also possesses substantial natural resources. The country is broadly categorized into three main geographical divisions; Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. It is the 12th largest populated country in the world. Philippines have a democratic form of government, with a presidential system in place.

Since 2003, the government has been facing the challenge of rising poverty within the country. High population growth, income inequality, civil unrest, and frequent natural disasters are the main factors contributing to the lack of progress in the country. However, the government is focused on increasing the rate of employment in the Philippines as a measure to improve the level of income and reduce the poverty level in the country. The unemployment rate has been declining steadily since 2005.

Following the 2009 economic financial crises, the country’s economic growth has recovered. The country was able to recover from the economic downturn more successfully than its regional counterparts, due to its low dependence upon exports and low exposure to the international market. With an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (at current prices) of $XX billion in 2012, the Philippines is expected to register a GDP growth rate of XX% for the same year (IMF, 2012). The services sector contributed an estimated XX% share of the country’s GDP in 2012, followed by the industry sector with XX% and the agricultural sector with XX% (CIA 2012). Major export items include coconut oil, fruits, copper products, transport equipment, petroleum products, semiconductors, and electronic products. Major export markets for the Philippines include China, Japan, Hong Kong, the US, South Korea, and Singapore. Imports in the country are comprised primarily of crude oil, machinery and transport equipment, iron and steel, textile fabrics, grains, chemicals, and plastic.

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is an independent body responsible for the regulation of the power industry. The commission encourages competition and enforces rules and regulations. It has been developing and promulgating a number of rules and regulations to strengthen the power sector in the Philippines. The Department of Energy (DoE) is responsible for formulating and enforcing the country's overall energy policy. The government in the Philippines began to privatize and restructure the electricity industry following the power crisis of the early 1990s. DoE plans to increase geothermal, wind, solar and hydro power installed capacity in order to reduce the country’s dependence upon costly oil imports. The National Renewable Energy Program (NREP), initiated by DoE, plans to increase renewable energy capacity to an estimated XX Megawatts (MW) by 2030 (Export.gov, 2012).

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance This report opens with an executive summary capturing key growth trends in the Philippines power

market.

Chapter three provides for a snapshot of the power sector in the Philippines.

Chapter four provides cumulative capacity and power generation information, as well as segmentation according to energy source from 2000 to 2012, with forecasts provided up to 2030. This is followed by the consumption scenario for the market between 2000 and 2012, with forecasts provided up until 2030.

Chapter five provides information on the power infrastructure in the Philippines, including details of leading active and upcoming power plants in the country, differentiated according to energy source, as well as existing and planned developments in the transmission and distribution infrastructure, and cross-country interconnections.

Chapter six provides information on the regulatory structure and prominent policies influencing the future of the power market.

Chapter seven describes the competitive landscape of the power market in the Philippines, with complete descriptions and SWOT analyses provided for leading power utilities in the generation sector.

Note: from 2012 onwards the report provides actual or estimated data depending upon information availability at the time of writing the report.

GDPE0656ICR / Published APR 2013 Page 10 Philippines Power Market Outlook to 2030 – Market Trends, Regulations


4 Philippines Power Market Analysis, 2000–2030

4.1 Philippines, Power Market, Installed Capacity, 2000–2030 4.1.1 Installed Capacity: Breakdown by Type of Power Plant, 2012 Cumulative installed capacity of Philippines was dominated by coal-fired power plants in 2012, which accounted for a XX% share. Hydroelectric power made the next highest contribution, with a share of XX%, followed by oil-fired plants and gas-fired plants with respective shares of XX% and XX%. Renewable sources (geothermal, wind and solar) contributed a XX% share.

Figure 1: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012

Coal-fired

Hydro

Oil-fired

Gas-fired

Renewable


Table 1: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012

Type of power plant Percentage share

Coal-fired

Hydro

Oil-fired

Gas-fired

Renewable




4.1.4 Hydropower Installed Capacity and Generation, 2000–2030 Hydropower installed capacity increased from XX MW in 2000 to XX MW in 2012 at a CAGR of XX%. The country currently has a number of large hydropower, mini-hydropower, and micro-hydropower plants. There is currently untapped hydropower potential to be utilized in the country. The government is taking initiatives such as the provision of technology support in order to optimize hydro potential, and improve research capabilities and grid interconnections. Hydropower capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% from XX MW to XX MW between 2013 and 2030.

Between 2000 and 2012, hydropower generation increased from XX GWh to XX GWh in 2012 at a CAGR of XX%. Furthermore, during the forecast period from 2013 to 2030, generation from hydropower sources is expected to increase from XX GWh to XX GWh at a CAGR of XX%. Hydropower generation is expected to increase in relation to the growing focus on increasing capacity and generation of non-thermal resources.

Figure 4: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), 2000–2030

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Hyd

ro in

stal

led

capa

city

(MW

)

Hyd

ro p

ower

gen

erat

ion

(GW

h)

Hydro Installed Capacity (MW) Hydro Power Generation (GWh)




Table 4: Power Market, Philippines, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), 2000–2030

Year Hydro installed capacity (MW) Hydro power generation (GWh)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030




8 Appendix

8.1 Market Definitions The geographical coverage of the report is the Philippines. The report covers market segments related to installed electricity capacity, generation, consumption, power infrastructure, and power regulations. This report covers the whole of the Philippines for a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the power market in the country.

8.1.1 Power The rate of production, transfer, or energy use, usually related to electricity. Measured in watts and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW), it is also known as "real" or "active" power.

8.1.2 Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer or the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. Installed capacity is given in Megawatts (MW) on a nameplate physically fixed on the generator.

8.1.3 Active Installed Capacity Active installed capacity refers to that component of electric power that actually performs work. It is given in Kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW).

8.1.4 Electricity Generation Producing electric energy by transforming other forms of energy. Also refers to the amount of electric energy produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

8.1.5 Electricity Consumption Consumption of electricity calculated as generation, plus imports, minus exports, minus transmission and distribution losses and measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

8.1.6 Thermal Power Plant A plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.

8.1.7 Hydropower Plant A plant in which turbine generators are driven by falling water.

8.1.8 Nuclear Power The electricity generated by the use of the thermal energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.

8.1.9 Renewable Energy Resources Naturally replenishing energy resources limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. For example, biomass, geothermal, solar, wind can all be termed as renewable resource.



8.2 Abbreviations Table 20: Abbreviations Full Forms Abbreviations

Accelerated Barangay Electrification Program ABEP

Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN

Beacon Electric Asset Holdings Beacon

Compound Annual Growth Rate CAGR

Circuit km Ckm

Department of Energy DOE

Distribution Utilities DUs

Electric Power Industry Reform Act EPIRA

Expanded Rural Electrification Program ER Program

Energy Regulatory Commission ERC

First Philippine Holdings Corporation FPHC

Gigawatt hours GWh

Independent Power Producers IPPs

Korea Electric Power Corporation Philippines Corporation KEPCO Philippines Corporation

Manila Electric Company Meralco

Million Barrels of Fuel Oil Equivalent MMBFOE

Megawatt MW

National Electrification Administration NEA

National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program NEECP

National Grid Corporation of the Philippines NGCP

National Power Corporation NPC

National Power Corporation - Small Power Utilities Group NPC-SPUG

New and Renewable Energy NRE

National Renewable Energy Program NREP

Performance Based Regulation PBR

PNOC-Energy Development Corporation PNOC-EDC

Philippine Rural Electrification Service PRES

Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation PSLAM

Return on Rate Base RORB

Small Power Utilities Group SPUG

National Transmission Corporation Transco

Wholesale Electricity Spot market WESM

Watershed Management Department WMD

Source: GlobalData



8.3 Bibliography DoE (2009). Clean Technology Fund Investment Plan for the Philippines. Department of Energy.

Available from: http://www.doe.gov.ph/popup/CTF%20Investment%20Plan%20Philippines%20final.pdf

DoE (2011a). DOE Targets 90% household electrification by 2017. Department of Energy via ABS CBN News. Available from: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/09/05/11/doe-targets-90-household-electrification-2017 [Accessed on: December 24, 2012]

DoE (2011b). Renewable Energy Plans and Programs (2011-2030). Department of Energy. Available from: http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/philippines/documents/press_corner/national_renewableenergy_prog_usec_layug_en.pdf

DoE (2012a). Philippines Power Statistics. Department of Energy. Available from. http://www.doe.gov.ph/EP/Powerstat.htm

DoE (2012b). National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program. Department of Energy. Available from: http://www.doe.gov.ph/EE/Eefficiency.htm [Accessed on: December 24, 2012]

IMF (2012). World Economic Outlook Database. International Monetary Fund. Available from: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=91&pr.y=6&sy=2006&ey=2017&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=566&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a= [Accessed on November 1, 2012]

Layug, JM (2012). The National Renewable Energy Program: The Road Starts Here. Department of Energy. Available from: http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/philippines/documents/press_corner/national_renewableenergy_prog_usec_layug_en.pdf

Export.gov (2012). Multi-Stop Renewable Energy Gold Key Mission.Export.gov Available from: http://export.gov/newyork/newyorkcityexportassistancecenter/te/le/retm/index.asp [Accessed on: December 24, 2012]

World Bank (2013). Ease of Doing Business - Economy Rankings [database]. Available from: http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings [Accessed on September 24, 2012]

World Bank, (2012). The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2012 Update. World Bank, 2012. Available from: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/pdf/wgidataset.xlsx [Accessed on November 1, 2013]

8.4 Coverage This report gives detailed information on the power market in the Philippines. It examines the structure of the power market in the country and provides existing and forecast information for generation, capacity, and consumption up until 2030. The report provides insights into the regulatory structure of the market, including import and export trends, competitive landscape, and leading active and upcoming power projects. The report also provides a snapshot of the power sector in the country by analyzing the power sector on the broad parameters of macro-economic factors, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition regulatory scenario, and future potential



8.5 GlobalData’s Methodology GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with backgrounds in marketing, market research and consulting in the power industry, and advanced statistical expertise.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

The following research methodology is followed for all country outlook reports.

8.5.1 Secondary research and analysis The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of secondary resources including but not limited to:

Government agencies, ministerial websites, industry associations, the World Bank, statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations

Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature

GlobalData’s proprietary databases like the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database.

Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project the country’s power market scenario through to 2030, analyzing factors such as the following:

The country’s macro-economic scenario

Government regulations, policies and targets

Government and private sector investments

Contract and deal announcements

Utility expansion plans

The sector’s historic track record

Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites, annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry associations.

8.5.2 Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants to verify and fine-tune the market numbers obtained through secondary research and get first-hand information on industry trends.

The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants include, but are not limited to, C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials, and industry spokespeople.



8.7 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission.

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