GDP Expansion Cycles · 2021. 1. 28. · US Economic Indicators: GDP Expansion Cycles Yardeni...

US Economic Indicators:GDP Expansion Cycles

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January 28, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

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Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

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Mali Quintana480-664-1333

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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles www.yardeni.com


Real GDP 3Consumer Spending 4Durable Goods Consumption 5-6Nondurable Goods Consumption 7-8Services Consumption 9-12Capital Spending 13-14Equipment 15-16Intellectural Property Products 17-18Residential Investment & Autos 19Government Spending 20Federal Government Spending 21State & Local Government Spending 22

III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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2009

Current data updated thru: Q4-2020

1961 (66.4)1970 (38.3)1975 (48.9)1982 (51.8)1991 (46.1)2001 (23.5)2009 (24.1)

REAL GDP(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)

* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short 12-month recovery fromJuly 1980 to July 1981 is excluded.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 1.


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2009


1961 (83.1)1970 (50.3)1975 (53.5)1982 (59.0)1991 (55.1)2001 (27.3)2009 (30.8)

REAL GDP EX GOVERNMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)

* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 2.

Real GDP

/ January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles www.yardeni.com



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2009


1961 (70.0)1970 (39.9)1975 (51.6)1982 (50.5)1991 (52.7)2001 (23.8)2009 (24.8)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 3.


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2009


1961 (69.3)1970 (32.4)1975 (56.2)1982 (49.3)1991 (66.9)2001 (27.5)2009 (53.2)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:GOODS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 4.

Consumer Spending




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2009


1961 (138.5)1970 (57.7)1975 (108.3)1982 (90.8)1991 (136.1)2001 (48.1)2009 (112.6)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:DURABLE GOODS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 5.


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1961 (149.5)1970 (67.6)1975 (138.7)1982 (66.7)1991 (94.8)2001 (-5.2)2009 (71.9)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:MOTOR VEHICLES & PARTS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 6.

Durable Goods Consumption




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2009


1961 (91.7)1970 (34.7)1975 (61.3)1982 (65.3)1991 (94.7)2001 (38.8)2009 (104.5)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FURNISHINGS & DURABLE HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 7.


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2009


1961 (245.8)1970 (81.2)1975 (150.0)1982 (222.5)1991 (359.0)2001 (168.2)2009 (212.3)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:RECREATIONAL GOODS & VEHICLES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 8.

Durable Goods Consumption




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2009


1961 (48.2)1970 (22.7)1975 (36.4)1982 (32.8)1991 (37.5)2001 (18.0)2009 (30.5)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:NONDURABLE GOODS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 9.


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1961 (55.1)1970 (68.1)1975 (95.4)1982 (62.8)1991 (60.1)2001 (27.3)2009 (31.8)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:CLOTHING & SHOES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 10.

Nondurable Goods Consumption




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2009


1961 (35.6)1970 (9.5)1975 (22.9)1982 (17.4)1991 (16.6)2001 (14.4)2009 (27.4)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FOOD & BEVERAGES PURCHASED FOR OFF-PREMISE CONSUMPTION(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 11.


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1961 (58.0)1970 (3.5)1975 (8.5)1982 (27.5)1991 (20.4)2001 (-5.3)2009 (-9.8)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:GASOLINE, FURE OIL, & OTHER ENERGY GOODS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 12.

Nondurable Goods Consumption




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1961 (70.5)1970 (46.9)1975 (48.5)1982 (51.0)1991 (45.2)2001 (21.9)2009 (13.3)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:SERVICES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 13.


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1961 (116.2)1970 (65.0)1975 (44.6)1982 (32.0)1991 (37.5)2001 (31.5)2009 (24.2)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:MEDICAL CARE SERVICES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 14.

Services Consumption




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1961 (73.0)1970 (48.4)1975 (38.5)1982 (37.6)1991 (34.0)2001 (17.9)2009 (14.6)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:HOUSING & UTILITIES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 15.


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1961 (75.7)1970 (18.1)1975 (49.6)1982 (74.3)1991 (66.4)2001 (6.4)2009 (5.5)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:TRANSPORTATION SERVICES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 16.





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1961 (68.2)1970 (94.0)1975 (94.0)1982 (90.2)1991 (54.3)2001 (27.5)2009 (-16.6)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:RECREATION SERVICES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 17.


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1961 (51.0)1970 (38.8)1975 (35.3)1982 (37.6)1991 (24.0)2001 (25.4)2009 (1.9)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FOOD SERVICES & ACCOMMODATIONS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 18.





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1961 (58.6)1970 (64.5)1975 (73.7)1982 (81.1)1991 (73.2)2001 (16.6)2009 (6.9)

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FINANCIAL SERVICES & INSURANCE(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 19.





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Data updated thru Q4-2020

1961 (105.3)1970 (76.8)1975 (79.4)1982 (59.9)1991 (90.1)2001 (42.4)2009 (62.2)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:TOTAL(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)

* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short 12-month recovery fromJuly 1980 to July 1981 is excluded.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 20.


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1961 (51.0)1970 (53.8)1975 (39.6)1982 (-11.3)1991 (-2.1)2001 (-11.0)2009 (-8.0)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:STRUCTURES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 21.

Capital Spending




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1961 (147.4)1970 (82.1)1975 (87.5)1982 (89.7)1991 (133.6)2001 (63.1)2009 (107.1)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 22.


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1961 (109.4)1970 (107.7)1975 (153.6)1982 (131.2)1991 (119.5)2001 (63.1)2009 (75.7)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY PRODUCTS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 23.

Capital Spending




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1961 (357.1)1970 (403.8)1975 (430.2)1982 (234.1)1991 (378.2)2001 (158.2)2009 (144.3)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:INFORMATION PROCESSING EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 24.


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1961 (97.8)1970 (22.8)1975 (16.9)1982 (32.7)1991 (35.8)2001 (13.7)2009 (52.7)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 25.

Equipment




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1961 (139.9)1970 (47.5)1975 (53.1)1982 (58.4)1991 (69.0)2001 (30.6)2009 (293.7)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 26.


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1961 (112.4)1970 (22.6)1975 (9.9)1982 (31.2)1991 (63.1)2001 (35.7)2009 (55.8)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:OTHER EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 27.

Equipment




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1970 (428.6)1975 (421.4)1982 (494.5)1991 (329.8)2001 (128.9)2009 (131.9)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:SOFTWARE(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 28.


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1961 (116.3)1970 (72.7)1975 (106.0)1982 (72.6)1991 (59.7)2001 (33.5)2009 (50.9)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 29.

Intellectural Property Products




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1961 (13.4)1970 (80.1)1975 (136.1)1982 (61.5)1991 (64.7)2001 (23.3)2009 (17.2)

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:ENTERTAINMENT, LITERARY, & ARTISTIC ORIGINALS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 30.

Intellectural Property Products




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1961 (93.0)1970 (-16.1)1975 (83.0)1982 (99.1)1991 (87.3)2001 (-25.6)2009 (82.4)

RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)

* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 31.


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1961 (34.2)1970 (99.5)1975 (113.6)1982 (107.7)1991 (113.8)2001 (27.0)2009 (141.4)

MOTOR VEHICLE OUTPUT IN REAL GDP(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 32.

Residential Investment & Autos




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1961 (34.9)1970 (12.6)1975 (37.6)1982 (31.9)1991 (20.2)2001 (9.5)2009 (0.1)

REAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 33.


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1961 (13.0)1970 (7.0)1975 (55.9)1982 (17.4)1991 (-1.8)2001 (33.8)2009 (3.4)

REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 34.

Government Spending




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1961 (-6.6)1970 (-4.1)1975 (64.5)1982 (12.0)1991 (-15.2)2001 (34.1)2009 (-1.9)

REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING:DEFENSE(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 35.


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1961 (117.1)1970 (41.1)1975 (35.1)1982 (29.6)1991 (32.2)2001 (33.5)2009 (13.2)

REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING:NONDEFENSE(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 36.

Federal Government Spending




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1961 (65.2)1970 (18.8)1975 (22.6)1982 (44.1)1991 (38.4)2001 (-3.0)2009 (-2.0)

REAL STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)


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Figure 37.

State & Local Government Spending



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