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US Economic Indicators:GDP (Nominal & Real)

Yardeni Research, Inc.

February 27, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

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Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

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Mali Quintana480-664-1333

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Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

February 27, 2020 / GDP (Nominal & Real) www.yardeni.com


GDP Levels: Nominal & Real 3GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real 4GDP ex-Government 5GDP & GNP 6-7GDP Components 8Equipment & Intellectual Property 9Real US Consumer Spending 10Real Capital Spending 11-12Real Inventories 13Real Trade 14Exports & Imports 15-16Real Government 17Contributions to GDP Growth 18-20Ratios 21-23

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.2

6.2

12.2

18.2

24.230.2

.2

6.2

12.2

18.2

24.230.2

Q4US NOMINAL GDP(trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 1.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241.8

4.8

7.8

10.8

13.8

16.8

19.8

22.8

1.8

4.8

7.8

10.8

13.8

16.8

19.8

22.8

REAL GDP(trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q4

11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 8 1845 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 73 113

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Numbers in red (black) are months of recessions(expansions).Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 2.

GDP Levels: Nominal & Real

/ February 27, 2020 / GDP (Nominal & Real) www.yardeni.com


48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

US NOMINAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Q4

Total (4.0)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 3.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

US REAL GDP GROWTH & 2% "STALL SPEED"(yearly percent change)

Q4

Latest (2.3)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is 2% "stall speed."Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 4.

GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0Q4REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING

(trillion 2012 dollars, saar)

Real GDP excludingTotal Government Spending

Real GDP

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 5.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q4

US REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING(yearly percent change)

Real GDP excludingTotal Government Spending (2.2)

Real GDP (2.3)


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Figure 6.

GDP ex-Government



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q4

REAL GDP & FINAL SALES(yearly percent change)

Real GDP (2.3)

Real Final Sales toDomestic Purchasers (2.3)


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Figure 7.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Q4

REAL GDP(billion 2012 dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Real GDP (19220.5)

Real GNP (19410.8)


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Figure 8.

GDP & GNP



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

REAL GDP& Q1 SEASONAL WEAKNESS

(quarterly percent change, saar)

Q4

Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 9.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

REAL FINAL SALES& Q1 SEASONAL WEAKNESS

(quarterly percent change, saar)

Q4

Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 10.

GDP & GNP



Figure 11.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225000

7000

9000

11000

13000Q4PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURES(billion 2012 dollars, saar)

Total

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

Q4

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

Equipment

Intellectual PropertyProducts

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 221500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000Q4PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURES

Total Goods

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Q4

NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT:STRUCTURES

Total Structures

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 223000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Q4

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

Services

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Q4

Q4

TRADE

Imports

Exports

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22200

400

600

800

1000

Q4

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT


90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

Q4

GOVERNMENT SPENDING

State &Local

Federal

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GDP Components



Figure 12.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q4PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIALINVESTMENT(billion 2012 dollars, saar)

Information Processing& Equipment

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Q4

Intellectural PropertyProducts

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

Q4

Industrial Equipment

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Q4

Software

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q4

TransportationEquipment

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q4

Research &Development

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2290

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

Q4

OtherEquipment


90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2230

40

50

60

70

80

90Q4

Entertainment, Literary& Artistic Originals

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Equipment & Intellectual Property



Figure 13.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Dec

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Total

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Dec

Durables

Nondurables

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Dec

Services


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Real US Consumer Spending



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Q4

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 14.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q4

NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Structures

Equipment

Intellectual PropertyProducts


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Figure 15.

Real Capital Spending



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10

0

10

20

30

40

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Q4

NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Intellectual Property Products:Software

Research & Development

Entertainment, Literary& Artistic Origins


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Figure 16.

Real Capital Spending



Figure 17.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Q4

INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(billion 2012 dollars, saar)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-50

0

50

-50

0

50

Q4

MANUFACTURING

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Q4

WHOLESALE

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q4

RETAIL EX AUTOS

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

Q4

RETAIL AUTOS


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Real Inventories



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-1100

-1000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

-1100

-1000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Q4

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP(billion 2012 dollars, saar)


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Figure 18.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-20

-10

0

10

20

-20

-10

0

10

20

Q4

EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

ExportsImports


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Figure 19.

Real Trade



96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

Q4US: EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP(billions of 2012 dollars, saar)

ExportsImports


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Figure 20.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

Dec

TRADE DEFICIT(billion dollars, saar)

TotalEx Petroleum & Crude Oil

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 21.

Exports & Imports



90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

Dec

EXPORTS(billion dollars, saar)

TotalEx Petroleum & Crude Oil


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Figure 22.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

Dec

IMPORTS(billion dollars, saar)

TotalEx Petroleum& Crude Oil


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Figure 23.

Exports & Imports



Figure 24.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

Q4

TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Total (3.0)

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-10

0

10

20

-10

0

10

20

Q4

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(yearly percent change)

Federal (4.4)

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

Q4

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(yearly percent change)

State & Local (2.2)


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Real Government



Figure 25.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q4

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:(contribution to real GDP change)

Total (1.2)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q4

Durable Goods (0.2)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-2

0

2

4

-2

0

2

4

Q4

Nondurable Goods (0.0)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q4

Services (1.0)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Contributions to GDP Growth



Figure 26.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q4

REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT(contribution to real GDP change) Total (0.2)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q4

Nonresidential Investment (-0.3)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Q4

Structures (-0.2)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-4

-2

0

2

4

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q4

Equipment & Software (-0.3)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Q4

Change In Nonfarm Inventories (-1.0)


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Figure 27.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Q4

NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES(contribution to real GDP change) Total (1.5)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q4

Exports ofGoods & Services (0.2)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

Q4

Imports ofGoods & Services (1.3)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q4

Federal GovernmentSpending (0.3)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

Q4

State & LocalGovernment Spending (0.2)


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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2455

60

65

70

55

60

65

70

Q4

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(as a percent of nominal GDP)


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Figure 28.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2412

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

Q3

REVENUES & EXPENDITURES


Federal Revenues(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Federal Expenditures(as a percent of nominal GDP)

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Figure 29.

Ratios



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420

80

140

200

260

320

380

20

80

140

200

260

320

380

Q4

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(billion 2012 dollars, saar, ratio scale)

StructuresCommercial & Health Care (151)Manufacturing (56)Power & Communications (104)Mining Exploration, Shafts, & Wells (99)


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Figure 30.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2452

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

Q4

Q4

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(as a percent of nominal GDP)

PCE/GDP (percent)Using total PCE (68)Using PCE ex-Health Care (54)


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Figure 31.

Ratios



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 244

6

8

10

12

14

4

6

8

10

12

14

MOTOR VEHICLES AND RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN NOMINAL GDP(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Q4

Latest (6.3)


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Figure 32.

Ratios



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