GDOT PowerPoint Template - 2015

2015 GDOT PowerPoint

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Sub Titles Body Text

Cartersville MPO Regional

Travel Demand Model 2015 Update

Joint Policy Committee (PC) and Technical Coordinating Committee (TCC)

Meeting

May 20, 2015

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BACKGROUND

• Federal legislation requires Long-Range

Transportation Plan (LRTP) updates every five

years

• The LRTP covers a minimum 20-year planning

horizon with fiscal constraint

• The next LRTP must be adopted on or before

March 26, 2016

• Cartersville MPO needs to provide projects to

Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) for Air

Quality Analysis by the end of August, 2015

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BACKGROUND

• MAP-21 - Moving Ahead for Progress in the

21st Century • LRTP requirements are similar to SAFETEA-LU

• More focused on performance-based approach

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What is a Travel Demand Model

and its Purpose?

State-of-

the-art

analysis

tool used

in the

transpor-

tation

planning

process

Model Outputs

Transportation network with forecasted volumes and other metrics

Identify deficiencies and prioritize projects

Travel Demand Model

1. Trip Generation – How Many Trips?

2. Trip Distribution – Where are they going?

3. Mode Choice – What mode are they using?

4. Trip Assignment – What route will they use?

Model Inputs

Transportation Network Characteristics Socioeconomic Data

1 2 3 Origin Destination

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Travel Demand Model (TDM)

Application

• Future traffic will be mainly driven by the future

socioeconomic data provided by MPO

• TDM will provide general guidance on where

the volume is exceeding the capacity and help

to identify roadway deficiencies

• Is not sufficient to determine/confirm the logical

termini, which requires additional information

like traffic counts, sub-area validation and

assessment of environmental impacts.

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Cartersville Modeling and MPO Boundary

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Updates on Major Activities

Preparation of socioeconomic data (MPO)

Development and validation of Base Year 2010 Model

Development of 2040 Do-Nothing Scenario (Projects provided by MPO)

System performance evaluation

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2010 Model Inputs

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2010 Highway Network

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• Model network includes roadways that are classified as “Collector” or above;

• Only local roads that provide regional connectivity or have impact to major routes are selected to be included in the model network.


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Socioeconomic Data for Bartow County - Provided by MPO Staff

99,167

32,749 35,781

25,374

169,865

46,435

64,165

43,429

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Total Population Total Employment Total Household School Enrollment

2010 2040

71%

42% 79% 71%

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Base Year 2010 Model Validation

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* HBW: Home-based Work * HBS: Home-based Shopping

* HBO: Home-based Other * NHB: Non Home-based

* P/A Ratio: Production to attraction ratio

Source:

(1) GDOT General Summary of Recommended Travel Demand Model Development Procedures for Consultants, MPOs and Modelers, May 2013

Calibration Measure Target Range / Value (1)

Model Results Min Max

Socioeconomic Data

Persons / Household 2 4 2.8

Workers / Household 1 3 0.9

School / Population 0.2 0.2 0.26

Trip Generation

Person Trips Per Household 8.5 9.2 8.9

Person Trips Per Person 3 4 3.2

HBW Trips / Employee 0 2 1.9

Shopping Trips / Retail Employment 5.0

P/A Ratio Before Balancing (HBW) 0.9 1.1 1.0

P/A Ratio Before Balancing (HBO) 0.9 1.1 1.0

P/A Ratio Before Balancing (HBShop) 0.9 1.1 1.0

P/A Ratio Before Balancing (NHB) 0.9 1.1 1.0

2010 Model Validation Trip Generation

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2010 Model Validation Model Highway Mileage

& Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by Facility Type

(1) 2010 GDOT VMT – GDOT Mileage by Route and Road System Report 445.

http://dot.ga.gov/informationcenter/statistics/RoadData/Documents/445/DPP445_2010.pdf

Functional Classification

Mileage

(miles)

VMT

(000,miles) VMT Distribution

VMT Comparison

(Model vs. Observed)

Observed (1) Model Observed (1) Model Observed (1) Model Difference

(000,miles) %

Interstate/Freeway 30 30 2,166 2,125 51.1% 50.8% -41 -2%

Principal Arterial 49 48 846 791 20.0% 18.9% -55 -7%

Minor Arterial 111 108 834 834 19.7% 19.9% 0 0%

Collectors 146 149 389 435 9.2% 10.4% 46 12%

Total 336 336 4,235 4,185 100% 100% -50 -1.2%

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Base Year 2010 Model Outputs

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2010 Total Daily Modeled Traffic Volumes

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Level of Service (LOS)

• Based on Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2010

methodology

• LOS was derived using the Travel Demand Model

• LOS compares volumes along the roadway to the

capacity of that roadway

LOS F LOS E LOS D LOS C LOS B LOS A

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2010 Daily Level of Service (LOS) Based on Modeled Volume

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Future Year 2040 Model Results

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2040 Do-Nothing Project List

Project ID Primary County

Description Primary Work

Type Existing

Lane Proposed

Lane Length (Miles)

0002626 BARTOW SR 3/US 41 AND SR 61/US 411 INTERCHANGE RECONSTRUCTION Interchange 2 4 1

0008965 BARTOW SR 20 WB FM MP 20.24 TO MP 21.86 Passing Lanes 2 3 1.62

621350- BARTOW SR 20 FM I-75 TO SR 61/US 411 PART RELOCATION Widening 2 4 2.2

621440- BARTOW SR 113 FM CR 31 TO RICHLAND CREEK @ OLD ALA RD RELOC -PH III Widening 2 4 2.9

621445-* BARTOW SR 113 @ RACCOON CREEK Bridges 2 4 0.05

621760-* BARTOW SR 113 @ RICHLAND CREEK Bridges 2 4 1.2

MPO-1 BARTOW Burnt Hickory Road extension from Widgeon Way to US 411 at Shaw Ind. New Construction 0 2 1.3

Project ID Primary County

Description Reasons why they are not included

0003450 BARTOW CR 232/ IRON BELT RD @ NANCY CREEK 3.3 MI NW OF CARTERSVILLE Bridges (Non-capacity expansion)

0008960 BARTOW CR 633/GLADE RD FM CR 705/CATFISH COURT TO CR 389/SUGAR HILL Intersection Improvement

0008980 BARTOW CS 510/PUBLIC SQUARE FROM MAIN ST TO WOOD ST - PHASE IV TE-Bike/Ped Facility

0009412 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 13 CR LOCS IN BARTOW COUNTY Pavement Markings

0009424 BARTOW BARTOW COUNTY ARRA C230 RESURFACING PROGRAM Resurface & Maintenance

0009690 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 16 LOC IN BARTOW CO - PH II Pavement Markings

0010035 BARTOW SR 3 @ PUMKINVINE CREEK - EMERGENCY PROJ - BARTOW-1 Emergency Repairs

0010189 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 21 CS LOC IN BARTOW COUNTY Pavement Markings

0010377 BARTOW CS 1010/BURNT HICKORY ROAD @ CSX #918560W RRX Warning Device

0010378 BARTOW CR 628/EUHARLEE ROAD @ CSX #639332N RRX Warning Device

0011834 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 9 CR LOCS IN BARTOW COUNTY Pavement Markings

0011839 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 10 CS LOCS IN CARTERSVILLE Signing

Major capacity projects that are provided by MPO Staff:

(Includes Federal, State and Local projects)

Projects that are not included:

* Project included as it is within the limits of Project # 621440-

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2040 Total Daily Modeled Traffic Volumes

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2040 Do-Nothing Daily Level of Service (LOS)

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Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

by Facility Type


2010 MPO Area VMT (Vehicle Miles)

2040 Do-Nothing MPO Area VMT (Vehicle Miles) Percent Change

Freeway 2,124,851 2,811,829 + 32%

Principal Arterial 790,878 1,132,862 + 43%

Minor Arterial 833,616 1,263,130 + 52%

Collectors 435,228 832,629 + 91%

Total 4,184,573 6,040,450 + 44%

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Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

by Level of Service

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2010 Model VMT 2040 Do-Nothing Model VMT

LOS C or Better LOS D LOS E LOS F

20.7%

75.7%

18.5%

3.2%

0.4% 27.2%

10.3%

44.0%

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Daily Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT)

by Facility Type


2010 MPO Area VHT

(Vehicle Hours)

2040 Do-Nothing MPO Area VHT (Vehicle Hours) Percent Change

Freeway 44,944 95,907 + 113%

Principal Arterial 22,662 51,429 + 127%

Minor Arterial 26,474 64,588 + 144%

Collectors 12,388 32,798 + 165%

Total 106,468 244,722 + 130%

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Next Steps

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Next Steps

• MPO

• Provide project lists for future year LRTP

Scenarios

• GDOT

• Evaluate remaining future year LRTP

Scenarios upon receiving project lists

• Provide level of service (LOS) maps to MPO

planners to prioritize projects

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2040 LRTP Scenarios

• 2nd network: Do-Nothing (completed)

• 3rd network: Existing + Committed (E+C)

• 4th network: Completion of STIP and CWP

projects

• 5th Network*: STIP/TIP + Remainder of system

projects prior to long range

• 6th Network*: Long Range Transportation Plan

system projects

• 7th network: Financially Constrained Plan

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* Note: Removed per direction provided by 2/18/15 email from Tom Sills


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GDOT PowerPoint Template - 2015

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