Gdn/ICMFlashPollMilibandCameron
description
Transcript of Gdn/ICMFlashPollMilibandCameron
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Yes100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
---------------------No---------------------
Page 1
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 1
Q1. Can I just confirm, did you watch the live interviews with David Cameron and Ed Miliband which finished minutes ago?Base : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
2462910410148523919417788226121311125310560279249529David Cameron50%43%53%40%43%35%19%81%26%12%68%43%17%84%62%47%39%42%45%49%47%
195227412343791413422433724259176220313162254203457Ed Miliband39%32%38%49%39%53%70%14%34%72%28%47%74%7%34%38%49%44%41%40%41%
541717292117221225955302378030208354137Don't know11%25%9%11%18%11%11%5%40%16%4%10%9%9%4%15%11%14%14%11%12%
Page 2
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 2
Q2. Who do you think won the contest?Base : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Page 3
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 3
Q2. Who do you think won the contest?Base : All respondents (excluding Don't know)
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
44644156253117232239348574514567293278214653117324835331016Unweighted base
4415117822392132180228395112547320230172456236122533453986Weighted base
2462910410148523919417788226121311125310560279249529David Cameron56%58%58%45%53%40%22%85%44%15%70%48%19%93%64%55%45%49%52%55%54%
195227412343791413422433724259176220313162254203457Ed Miliband44%42%42%55%47%60%78%15%56%85%30%52%81%7%36%45%55%51%48%45%46%
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ActuallyWas the moreanswered theappealingWas moreHad the better
questions askedpersonalityconvincingarguments
1123112311231123Unweighted base
1123112311231123Weighted base
496517538516David Cameron44%46%48%46%
417477486490Ed Miliband37%42%43%44%
20912999117Don't know19%12%9%10%
Page 4
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 4
Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme,as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...?Summary tableBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
25832909838593719118985263622410025810354261255516David Cameron52%47%46%39%34%40%18%80%28%15%66%51%10%89%56%48%39%38%42%50%46%
203218713049781492919433922287187021313474282208490Ed Miliband41%31%45%51%44%52%74%12%31%71%30%43%82%7%39%40%50%52%46%41%44%
3514172525121620268642711106429147344117Don't know7%21%9%10%22%8%8%8%41%13%4%7%8%4%6%12%11%10%12%9%10%
Page 5
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 5
Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme,as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...?Had the better argumentsBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
2613197104465647186181077236622510827610748285253538David Cameron53%46%50%41%41%38%23%77%29%17%59%45%19%89%60%52%40%34%46%50%48%
198198413154811404022394627274206321313575265221486Ed Miliband40%28%43%52%48%54%70%17%34%64%36%52%78%8%35%40%51%53%43%44%43%
371814181212141423117210810462518663399Don't know7%26%7%7%11%8%7%6%37%19%5%3%3%3%5%9%9%13%11%6%9%
Page 6
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 6
Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme,as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...?Was more convincingBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
25527958851524618320681196121710324410367262255517David Cameron51%41%49%35%45%35%23%76%31%11%63%36%17%86%57%46%39%47%43%50%46%
196248012948791273822473626265216021513567273203477Ed Miliband40%36%41%51%43%53%63%16%34%77%28%50%76%8%34%40%51%47%44%40%42%
4516203614182919227137241416772978149129Don't know9%24%10%14%12%12%14%8%35%12%10%14%7%6%9%14%11%5%13%10%12%
Page 7
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 7
Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme,as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...?Was the more appealing personalityBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
224309792534345165331975215519510322810857285211496David Cameron45%45%50%36%48%29%22%69%52%31%57%41%16%77%58%43%41%40%46%42%44%
177326810337771343515213420248196120610842218200417Ed Miliband36%48%35%41%33%52%66%15%23%34%26%39%71%8%34%39%41%29%35%39%37%
95530582228244016212111473815101504311396209Don't know19%8%15%23%19%19%12%17%25%34%16%21%14%15%8%19%19%30%18%19%19%
Page 8
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 8
Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme,as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...?Actually answered the questions askedBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
43946146258121250260352654514272299272214657114244785321009Unweighted base
382591301999214119723158491074628620916641918890451412863Weighted base
1098344612911144-----2095697352194115209Conservative28%14%26%23%14%6%5%62%-----100%33%23%19%24%21%28%24%
124144679233414720----286-391258042158128286Labour32%23%35%40%25%24%74%9%----100%-24%30%42%47%35%31%33%
26231233624---46--1020124242246Liberal Democrat/7%4%2%6%3%26%1%2%---100%--6%5%6%5%5%5%5%Liberal
43520309151339--107---34551084562107UK Independence Party11%8%16%15%10%11%6%17%--100%---21%13%5%9%10%15%12%(UKIP)
2348951652-49----1117174272249Green6%7%6%4%6%11%3%1%-100%----6%4%9%5%6%5%6%
----3647136-----7236-191736Scottish National----39%3%3%*62%-----4%5%3%-4%4%4%Party/SNP
-16------16-----1313-13316Plaid Cymru-28%------28%-----1%1%7%-3%1%2%
4-11-2116-----123-336Other1%-1%*-1%**10%-----*1%1%-1%1%1%
49218234251222------8651310564197Don't know13%4%14%11%5%18%6%9%------5%16%7%11%12%10%11%
57-------------12--12-12Refused1%11%-------------3%--3%-1%
Page 9
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 9
VIQ2. PRE SURVEY DATA - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area.If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base : All respondents (Turnout Weighted)
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
3874312622611320324331765451427229927220356510423416479895Unweighted base
328501121778811518520958491074628620915934217480384371755Weighted base
1098344612911144-----2095697352194115209Conservative33%17%30%26%14%8%6%69%-----100%35%28%20%27%24%31%28%
124144679233414720----286-391258042158128286Labour38%28%41%45%26%30%79%10%----100%-25%37%46%52%41%34%38%
26231233624---46--1020124242246Liberal Democrat/8%5%3%7%3%31%1%2%---100%--6%6%7%6%6%6%6%Liberal
43520309151339--107---34551084562107UK Independence Party13%10%18%17%10%13%7%18%--100%---22%16%5%10%12%17%14%(UKIP)
2348951652-49----1117174272249Green7%8%7%5%6%14%3%1%-100%----7%5%10%5%7%6%6%
----3647136-----7236-191736Scottish National----41%3%4%*62%-----5%7%3%-5%5%5%Party/SNP
-16------16-----1313-13316Plaid Cymru-33%------28%-----1%1%7%-3%1%2%
4-11-2116-----123-336Other1%-1%*-1%**10%-----*1%2%-1%1%1%
Page 10
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 10
VIQ2. PRE SURVEY DATA - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area.If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base : All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
373143132015182619161979442115493988Changed mind7%4%7%12%3%13%7%7%4%9%15%31%5%3%5%8%8%10%8%8%8%
4205315720810110717221161459733318239162426228123505435939Made no difference85%78%81%82%90%72%85%88%95%75%75%64%91%94%90%80%86%87%82%86%84%
38122314822151119143146966183633396Don't know8%18%12%6%7%15%7%5%2%16%11%5%4%3%5%12%7%2%10%6%9%
Page 11
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 11
Q3. Based on what you saw or heard during the programme, have you changed your mind about who to vote for, or had you already made up your mind andthe debate makes no difference to how you intend to vote?Base : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Pre Poll Voting IntentionRefusedDon't knowWould not voteOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabConTotal
-25-47191321594Unweighted base
-19-26191619788Weighted base
-7---457326Conservative-35%---20%32%40%39%30%
-10-2311910549Labour-53%-83%49%58%57%52%61%56%
-*----2--2Liberal Democrat-2%----10%--2%
----2--1-3Green----39%--4%-3%
-----4---4UKIP-----22%---5%
-------1-1Another party-------5%-1%
-2-*1----3Don't know-10%-17%12%----3%
Page 12
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 12
Q4. Who are you now likely to vote for in the General Election on May 7th? Will you vote...Base : All who have changed their mind about who to vote for
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Pre Poll Voting IntentionRefusedDon't knowWould not voteOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabConTotal
-23-36191321590Unweighted base
-17-25191619785Weighted base
-7---457326Conservative-39%---20%32%40%39%31%
-10-2311910549Labour-59%-100%56%58%57%52%61%58%
-*----2--2Liberal Democrat-2%----10%--2%
----2--1-3Green----44%--4%-3%
-----4---4UKIP-----22%---5%
-------1-1Another party-------5%-1%
Page 13
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 13
Q4. Who are you now likely to vote for in the General Election on May 7th? Will you vote...Base : All who have changed their mind about who to vote for and who show an intention to vote
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
43946146258121250260352654514272299272214657114244785321009Unweighted base
382591301999214119723158491074628620916641918890451412863Weighted base
11583649121212148--335207561053525100121221Conservative30%14%28%25%14%9%6%64%--3%7%2%99%33%25%19%28%22%29%26%
13115508923421522222872792441368742170139309Labour34%26%39%45%25%30%77%9%3%5%7%15%98%1%26%32%46%47%38%34%36%
2123733124---36--101710-181837Liberal Democrat/6%4%2%4%3%22%1%2%---78%--6%4%5%-4%4%4%Liberal
4151724915937--96---315078415596UK Independence Party11%8%13%12%10%11%5%16%--90%---19%12%4%9%9%13%11%(UKIP)
2338851452-46--1-1115164262147Green6%5%6%4%6%10%2%1%-94%--*-7%4%8%5%6%5%5%
----3536135-----7216-181635Scottish National----37%2%3%*60%-----4%5%3%-4%4%4%Party/SNP
-15------15------313-13215Plaid Cymru-26%------27%------1%7%-3%1%2%
4-1112116---1-124-346Other1%-1%*1%1%*1%10%---*-*1%2%-1%1%1%
43315205221117*1----7581110513586Don't know11%5%12%10%5%16%5%7%1%1%----4%14%6%11%11%9%10%
57-------------12--12-12Refused1%11%-------------3%--3%-1%
Page 14
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 14
VIQ2. UPDATED POST PROGRAMME - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area.If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base : All respondents (Turnout Weighted)
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
3984213023011220724532564441427229927220457910623425487912Unweighted base
334491151808811918621457491074628620916035017780389376766Weighted base
11583649121212148--335207561053525100121221Conservative34%17%31%27%14%10%6%69%--3%7%2%99%35%30%20%32%26%32%29%
13115508923421522222872792441368742170139309Labour39%31%44%50%26%36%81%10%3%5%7%15%98%1%27%39%49%53%44%37%40%
2123733124---36--101710-181837Liberal Democrat/6%5%2%4%3%26%1%2%---78%--6%5%6%-5%5%5%Liberal
4151724915937--96---315078415596UK Independence Party12%10%15%14%10%12%5%17%--90%---19%14%4%10%10%15%13%(UKIP)
2338851452-46--1-1115164262147Green7%6%7%5%6%12%2%1%-95%--*-7%4%9%5%7%6%6%
----3536135-----7216-181635Scottish National----39%3%3%*60%-----5%6%3%-5%4%5%Party/SNP
-15------15------313-13215Plaid Cymru-31%------27%------1%7%-3%1%2%
4-1112116---1-124-346Other1%-1%*1%1%*1%10%---*-*1%2%-1%1%1%
Page 15
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 15
VIQ2. UPDATED POST PROGRAMME - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area.If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base : All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
269251021064258292071268728462441062679674284259543David Cameron54%36%52%42%37%39%14%86%19%11%67%54%13%97%59%50%36%52%46%51%48%
18925731214269147212143301928145919413661254197450Ed Miliband38%36%37%48%38%46%73%9%33%72%23%37%80%1%33%36%51%43%41%39%40%
3818202528212612311113523515753467951130Don't know8%27%10%10%25%14%13%5%48%18%10%9%6%2%8%14%13%4%13%10%12%
Page 16
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 16
Q5. Based on their performance during the programme, which one of the two do you think would make the best PM for Britain?Base : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Has the courageto say what isWill be moreWill govern in
right ratherrespectedHas changed histhe interestsIs backed byIs good in aUnderstandsthan what isaround theIs more spinparty for theof the many,
his partycrisispeople like mepopularIs decisiveworldthan substancebetterand not the few
112311231123112311231123112311231123Unweighted base
112311231123112311231123112311231123Weighted base
651522276390606652545409309David Cameron58%46%25%35%54%58%49%36%27%
231240535572330217388397622Ed Miliband21%21%48%51%29%19%35%35%55%
241361312161187255190317193Don't know21%32%28%14%17%23%17%28%17%
Page 17
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 17
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Summary tableBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
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Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
1741047601824121553151137191731406925157151309David Cameron35%14%24%24%16%16%6%65%5%2%39%25%2%76%41%26%26%18%25%30%27%
2504699158681041774745505532336218329316680349272622Ed Miliband50%68%51%63%61%70%88%19%71%84%43%61%96%8%46%55%62%56%57%54%55%
721249352621133815924784123102313711083193Don't know14%18%25%14%23%14%7%16%24%15%18%13%2%16%13%19%12%26%18%16%17%
Page 18
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 18
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Will govern in the interests of the many, and not the fewBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
2122272752840331529174321571888817810240216193409David Cameron43%32%37%30%25%27%16%63%14%28%33%41%16%74%49%33%38%29%35%38%36%
15719741024564111371525391522529471909565220177397Ed Miliband32%29%38%40%40%43%55%15%23%41%30%29%64%11%26%36%36%46%36%35%35%
12727497539445852401948166836451676936181137317Don't know26%39%25%30%35%30%29%21%63%31%37%31%19%14%25%31%26%26%29%27%28%
Page 19
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 19
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Has changed his party for the betterBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
240329112954881525229425924257467826013275289256545David Cameron48%47%47%51%48%59%75%22%45%70%45%47%73%18%44%48%50%53%47%51%49%
189207972283822153107511964161851768740208179388Ed Miliband38%29%40%29%25%26%11%63%16%12%39%36%18%64%47%33%33%28%34%35%35%
67162551302227352511219294617100472711971190Don't know14%24%13%20%27%15%14%15%38%18%16%17%8%18%9%19%18%19%19%14%17%
Page 20
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 20
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Is more spin than substanceBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
2984511013167856720930241003610523612231615064353299652David Cameron60%67%56%52%60%57%33%87%46%40%77%69%30%94%68%59%56%45%57%59%58%
9814355415267611916811158228926630116101217Ed Miliband20%21%18%21%13%18%38%4%14%27%6%20%45%1%16%17%25%21%19%20%19%
99850673037592125202268715291275148148107255Don't know20%12%25%27%27%25%29%9%40%34%17%11%25%6%16%24%19%34%24%21%23%
Page 21
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 21
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Will be more respected around the worldBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
27938113124527057204322688358122111429113863329277606David Cameron56%56%58%49%46%47%28%85%51%44%67%67%23%88%63%54%52%44%53%55%54%
1462253763245110171210211022714431448954186143330Ed Miliband30%32%27%30%29%30%54%7%18%17%16%19%65%5%24%27%33%38%30%28%29%
7182853283336192024227421823101382510186187Don't know14%11%14%21%25%22%18%8%31%39%17%14%12%7%13%19%14%18%16%17%17%
Page 22
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 22
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Is decisiveBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
190226474403620160142611822188762007242191199390David Cameron38%32%33%29%35%24%10%67%22%4%47%34%6%74%42%37%27%30%31%39%35%
231429714855891614733454528310377926115974338234572Ed Miliband46%62%50%58%49%60%80%19%52%75%35%54%88%15%44%49%60%52%55%46%51%
76433311824213417122461928257536258774161Don't know15%6%17%12%16%16%11%14%26%21%18%12%5%11%14%14%13%18%14%15%14%
Page 23
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 23
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Has the courage to say what is right rather than what is popularBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
139165546201681374-4592168631275828140137276David Cameron28%24%28%18%18%11%4%57%6%-35%17%1%67%35%24%22%20%23%27%25%
216429014146831673233364323318167623316066308227535Ed Miliband44%62%46%56%41%56%83%13%52%60%33%44%91%6%42%43%60%47%50%45%48%
1419506647492771272442203069411764847169143312Don't know28%14%26%26%41%33%13%30%42%40%32%38%8%27%23%33%18%33%27%28%28%
Page 24
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 24
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Understands people like meBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
26125901004670421981598031612279726711345269253522David Cameron53%37%46%40%41%47%21%82%24%16%62%60%17%90%54%50%43%32%44%50%46%
10713395626327915991371796321046539132108240Ed Miliband22%19%20%22%23%21%39%6%15%15%10%14%51%3%18%19%24%27%21%21%21%
128306596414781273942371411019501658858215146361Don't know26%44%34%38%36%32%40%11%62%70%28%26%32%8%28%31%33%41%35%29%32%
Page 25
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 25
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Is good in a crisisBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
305351091406184762052931922811423412630714870366285651David Cameron62%52%56%55%55%57%38%85%46%52%70%53%33%93%70%57%56%50%59%56%58%
871756591332731787137168531976934109122231Ed Miliband17%25%29%23%11%21%36%7%12%11%10%14%48%2%17%18%26%24%18%24%21%
10415295438325318272226176814231325037141100241Don't know21%22%15%21%34%22%26%8%42%37%20%33%19%6%13%25%19%26%23%20%21%
Page 26
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 26
Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Miliband or David Cameron...Is backed by his partyBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
173227110149581213621334618220126019410955232185417Agree35%33%37%40%44%39%60%15%33%55%36%34%63%5%33%36%41%39%38%36%37%
2642898122527656187232473338322610527412559292271562Disagree53%41%50%48%46%51%28%78%37%40%56%63%24%89%58%51%47%42%47%53%50%
59172629121424172031124815156932289251144Don't know12%26%13%12%11%9%12%7%31%6%8%3%14%6%8%13%12%20%15%10%13%
Page 27
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 27
Q7. Do you agree or disagree with the following claim?Now that David Cameron has signalled he will quit as prime minister by 2020, he is a lame duck that will never last that long.Base : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
21327101117486894135252275241571399223911858-507507Male43%40%52%46%43%46%47%56%40%37%58%47%45%55%51%45%44%41%-100%45%
28340941356480108106383855281941138829714883616-616Female57%60%48%54%57%54%53%44%60%63%42%53%55%45%49%55%56%59%100%-55%
Page 28
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 28
GenderBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
63-332620439-7995928---141835814118 to 2413%-17%10%18%3%1%4%-12%7%17%17%11%---100%14%11%13%
146303243153357372421151311051--266-14811826625 to 3430%44%16%17%13%22%28%15%38%35%11%25%32%20%--100%-24%23%24%
91123955183334431192396044-216--1199721635 to 4418%18%20%22%16%22%17%18%17%15%18%17%17%17%-40%--19%19%19%
6192649272532451362054837-172--898317245 to 5412%14%13%19%24%17%16%19%21%10%15%10%14%15%-32%--14%16%15%
609303513253239662573431-148--895914855 to 6412%13%16%14%12%17%16%16%10%11%19%13%10%12%-28%--14%12%13%
73735451928436891138104062180---889218065 plus15%11%18%18%17%19%21%28%14%18%29%19%11%25%100%---14%18%16%
Page 29
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 29
AgeBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionPre Poll Voting IntentionAgeGender
LibSouthWalesMidlandsNorthScotlandDemLabConOtherGreenUKIPLib DemLabCon65+35-6425-3418-24FemaleMaleTotal
49049169282133262267366685115475321292224732131365445791123Unweighted base
496681952521121482022406460130523502531805362661416165071123Weighted base
----112920124061332516195815206448112Scotland----100%6%10%5%63%10%10%5%7%6%11%11%6%14%10%10%10%
---55-7115-74120125211217312455North East---22%-5%6%2%-11%3%2%6%5%3%4%5%12%5%5%5%
---118-163525121510433027662056157118North West---47%-11%17%11%1%3%12%19%12%12%15%12%7%4%10%11%11%
---79-152127-313328131252113443579Yorkshire and the---31%-10%10%11%-5%10%7%8%5%7%10%4%2%7%7%7%Humber
--86--121420-1011224171648158493886East Midlands--44%--8%7%8%-16%8%4%7%7%9%9%6%5%8%7%8%
--108--101625151413525194817254563108West Midlands--56%--7%8%11%2%8%11%3%10%10%10%9%6%18%7%12%10%
-68---71561845317973130-402768Wales-100%---5%7%3%28%7%4%5%5%3%4%6%11%-7%5%6%
121----111329-10143362825513967448121East of England24%----7%7%12%-16%11%6%10%11%14%10%15%4%12%9%11%
150----192630-510106240126437367971150London30%----13%13%12%-8%8%19%18%16%7%12%14%26%13%14%13%
142----192038161593945226633208062142South East29%----13%10%16%1%9%11%18%11%18%12%12%13%14%13%12%13%
83----2311233416720191431371503383South West17%----15%5%10%5%7%13%13%6%8%8%6%14%1%8%7%7%
Page 30
Flash Poll Post SurveyONLINE Fieldwork : 24th-26th March 2015
Absolutes/col percents
Table 30
RegionBase : All respondents
Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICM Unlimited
-
Page 1
Page Table Title Base Description Base
1 1 Q1. Can I just confirm, did you watch the live interviews with David Cameron and Ed Miliband which finished minutes ago?
Base : All respondents 1123
2 2 Q2. Who do you think won the contest? Base : All respondents 1123
3 3 Q2. Who do you think won the contest? Base : All respondents (excluding Don't know) 1016
4 4 Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme, as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...? Summary table
Base : All respondents 1123
5 5 Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme, as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...? Had the better arguments
Base : All respondents 1123
6 6 Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme, as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...? Was more convincing
Base : All respondents 1123
7 7 Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme, as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...? Was the more appealing personality
Base : All respondents 1123
8 8 Q2a. Putting aside your own party preference and only basing your answer on what you saw or heard during the programme, as far as you are concerned which one of the two leaders do you think...? Actually answered the questions asked
Base : All respondents 1123
9 9 VIQ2. PRE SURVEY DATA - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?
Base : All respondents (Turnout Weighted) 1009
10 10 VIQ2. PRE SURVEY DATA - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?
Base : All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)
895
11 11 Q3. Based on what you saw or heard during the programme, have you changed your mind about who to vote for, or had you already made up your mind and the debate makes no difference to how you intend to vote?
Base : All respondents 1123
-
Page 2
Page Table Title Base Description Base
12 12 Q4. Who are you now likely to vote for in the General Election on May 7th? Will you vote... Base : All who have changed their mind about who to vote for
94
13 13 Q4. Who are you now likely to vote for in the General Election on May 7th? Will you vote... Base : All who have changed their mind about who to vote for and who show an intention to vote
90
14 14 VIQ2. UPDATED POST PROGRAMME - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?
Base : All respondents (Turnout Weighted) 1009
15 15 VIQ2. UPDATED POST PROGRAMME - The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?
Base : All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)
912
16 16 Q5. Based on their performance during the programme, which one of the two do you think would make the best PM for Britain?
Base : All respondents 1123
17 17 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Summary table
Base : All respondents 1123
18 18 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Will govern in the interests of the many, and not the few
Base : All respondents 1123
19 19 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Has changed his party for the better
Base : All respondents 1123
20 20 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Is more spin than substance
Base : All respondents 1123
21 21 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Will be more respected around the world
Base : All respondents 1123
22 22 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Is decisive
Base : All respondents 1123
23 23 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Has the courage to say what is right rather than what is popular
Base : All respondents 1123
-
Page 3
Page Table Title Base Description Base
24 24 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Understands people like me
Base : All respondents 1123
25 25 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Is good in a crisis
Base : All respondents 1123
26 26 Q6. And still putting aside your own party preference, from your own perception do you think Ed Milibandor David Cameron... Is backed by his party
Base : All respondents 1123
27 27 Q7. Do you agree or disagree with the following claim? Now that David Cameron has signalled he will quit as prime minister by 2020, he is a lame duck that will never last that long.
Base : All respondents 1123
28 28 Gender Base : All respondents 1123
29 29 Age Base : All respondents 1123
30 30 Region Base : All respondents 1123