Gdmp model workshop 2 - overview of model
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Transcript of Gdmp model workshop 2 - overview of model
Gas Development Master PlanOverview of the GDMP Model
Capacity Building Workshop Bali, 1-2 July 2013
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Presentation Outline• Introducing components of the GDMP Model:
– Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS)– Transport Infrastructure Model (TIM)
• Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS) overview:– Objective and key questions– Key outputs
• Transport Infrastructure Model (TIM) overview:– Objective and key questions– Key outputs
• Key Results from the GDMP Model
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Typical phases of a gas producing country• Medium and long term planning perspective• Economic cost of gas is (at least) current production cost +
component (depletion premium) to reflect long run cost of substitute fuel (backstop fuel)
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Changing perspectives …
• “Looks good”
• “OK so far”
• “Oh dear”
• “I hope we made good use of that gas”
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The GDMP modelling framework
• 2 key task areaso … optimizing the expansion of gas supply and transmission
infrastructure in the medium to long termo … policy framework for supporting long-term gas sector
development
• 2 timeframeso 20 years (2040) | 50 years (2070)
• 2 methodologieso Scenarios | Least cost optimisation
• 2 modelso DASS | TIM
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Components of the GDMP Model
DASS TIM
Demand scenarios
Supply scenarios
Export scenarios
Price scenarios
Optimisation for infrastructure
Unmet demand
Excess supply
Infrastructure costs
Adjusted export
Revenue calculation
Results
New infrastructure to meet domestic
demand
Cost of new infrastructure
Government revenues
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Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS) – OverviewINPUT DATA
Supply input sheet
Demand input sheet
Global parameter sheet
CALCULATION
CONTROL PANEL
Demand calculation sheet
Supply calculation sheet
OUTPUTS
Demand by region and by sector
Annual production by region
TIMSupply-demand graph (initial)
SCENARIOS
Input from TIM
PSC terms input sheet
Adjustments sheet
Revenue calculation sheet
Supply-demand graph (adjusted)
Government revenue
Price input sheet
Price calculation sheet
Export input sheet
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Objective of DASS and key questionsKey issues: selecting parameters to simulate different demand scenarios, different policy options, and different price scenarios.
Objective of DASS: 1. Estimate domestic demand, export, and supply projections up to 2070 based
on selected scenario parameters2. Calculate estimated government revenue based on selected scenario and
cost of selected infrastructure (from TIM)
Key questions:• What are the factors and how will they effect demand and export?• How will price of gas (domestic and export) change over time?• What are the policies that will effect demand?• How are these policies effect demand?• How will government revenue be effected by the different demand scenarios?• How will the cost of infrastructure (from TIM) effect government revenue?
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Key outputs of DASSInitial output projections• Domestic demand projections for major industries, electricity generation, domestic distribution (households and small commercial), and transport by region• Export projections based on existing contracted volumes• Supply projections based on production volumes of each region
Adjusted outputs based on results from TIM• Estimated government revenue based on selected demand and supply scenario and cost of new infrastructure from TIM• New demand and supply balance
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DASS initial outputs: demand and supply projections
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Transport Infrastructure Model Overview
DASS inputs
INPUT DATA
Demand data
Transport costs used in minimisation
CONTROL PANEL
RESULTS
Infrastructure cost and timing requirements by region
SCENARIOS
Supply data
Export data
Connection Concepts
Run minimisation
Interregional LNG and pipeline flows
S/D balances, exports, and unmet demand by region
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Key issue for Gas Infrastructure Policy: supply centres removed from major demand centres
Objective of TIM: identify set of least cost infrastructure options to balance supply and demand across regions until 2040
Key questions • What is the last cost infrastructure portfolio to balance regional supply and
demand?• What are optimized interregional LNG and pipeline flows?• What are the liquefaction, regasification and interregional pipeline capacity
requirements in each region? • What is the volume of unmet demand/imports in each region?• What is volume of excess supply, i.e. gas not consumed domestically or
exported? • What is the cost of delivered gas in each region?
Objective of TIM and key questions
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Key outputs of TIMInfrastructure planning• Liquefaction, regasification and pipeline capacity needed to supply gas into each region• Optimized pipeline and LNG flows across regions• Earliest year gas transport infrastructure in each region is needed
Export and production policy• Level of unmet demand, i.e. domestic demand that cannot be covered by domestic production• Volume of excess production, i.e. scheduled production that is neither exported nor domestically consumed
Investment requirements• Total cost of infrastructure requirements to balance supply and demand
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Output: Regional S/D balances, unmet demand, exports and interregional flows
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Output: Interregional flows by connection concept
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Output: Costs, capacity requirements and throughputs
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Key results of the GDMP Model
Infrastructure planning• List of infrastructure needed to meet domestic demand, earliest year needed and cost of infrastructure• Adjusted demand-supply balance
Government revenue• Estimated government revenue based on selected demand and supply scenario and cost of new infrastructure from TIM
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GDMP Model Key Results – list of infrastructure plan
Infrastructure plan
Infrastructure/location Type Existing capacityAdditional capacity
needed Total Cost Unit costBcf/y Bcf/y million US$ $/mcf
C. Java - W. Java PL Pipeline - 900 457 0.1 Eastern Kalimantan- C. Java PL Pipeline - 600 3,735 1.0 Riau islands Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant - 300 11,124 7.7 East Kalimantan Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 1,000 - 14 0.0 Papua Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 375 300 10,539 1.9 West Java Regasification Regasification Terminal 150 700 3,927 1.0 East Java and Bali Regasification Regasification Terminal - 900 4,882 1.7 E. Java- C. Java PL Pipeline - 80 264 3.1 Southern Moluccas Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant - 500 20,682 13.2 Riau-E. Kalimantan PL Pipeline - 400 2,654 3.3 Central Sulawesi Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 100 10 412 1.9 Nad Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 590 - 8 0.0 SSWJ I&II Pipeline 360 - 968 0.7 C. Sulawesi-South Sulawesi PL Pipeline - 30 432 45.2 Riau-Central Sumatra Pipeline - 1 485 14,696.0 Sumatra PL Pipeline 160 - 235 48,716
Which locations are being connected by the new infrastructure
What is the connection types
If it is an existing infrastructure, what is the existing capacity What is the
additional capacity needed
What is the total cost and unit cost to build the additional capacity
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GDMP Model Key Results – new demand supply balance
Grey area shows excess supply from this region
After running TIM, excess supply is now transferred (purple bars) to other region(s)
TIM only runs to 2040
If transfers exceed production, could mean that this region imports gas and then transfer to other region(s)
Example from Central and South Sumatera
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GDMP Model Key Results – Estimated government revenue and economic value
Discounted costs, to 2050
Undiscounted costs, to 2070 – very large unmet demand (depends on scenario)