FX Weekly Commentary - Oct 16 - Oct 22 2011 Elite Global Trading

8/3/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Oct 16 - Oct 22 2011 Elite Global Trading

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The Markets rebound off of lows withauthority over the past week. The recovery

brings a very important question to mind, will

this bull move continue or will a sell off back

to lows be on the docket of interest. The move

up to current levels will need supporting

economic evidence to for further gains to

continue for the medium term. Europe has not

yet solved any problems that they have and

the US does not have supporting data for a

real economic turn around yet. We may see

some short term strength continue but welook for supporting data to stand on for the

bull run to continue and it is just not there yet.

For intra week moves we see a move to

support levels to be on tap in the week ahead

before any major continued gains. Most major

markets have reached very important

resistance levels that will need strong

conviction to break and stay above. The

current moves in the markets are favored to

the upside but being cautious where you are

positioning is important in a move of this

magnatude, it's not practical to be late to a

party that maybe already reaching its short

term limits. On the docket this week to keep a

close eye on will be the RBA Meeting Min and

BOE Meeting Min.

Fundamental Outlook

Elite Global

Trading Forex Weekly CommentaryOct 16th Oct 22th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 24

In this issue:

Fundamental

Outlook

1

AUDUSD

EURAUD2

EURCAD

EURUSD3

Event Risk 4

Contact Info

Disclaimer5
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Oct 16th Oct 22th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 24

AUDUSD: Moves to monthly highs this week at1.0345, the move from the lows of .9388 isstill in progress and has not yet shown signs

of being tired yet. Now one would expect when

a move of this magnitude happens in this

short of time we would see a percentage

correction prior to the next move higher. It is

always difficult to call a correction in martkets

that are producing extended moves beyond all

expectations. The only thing you can do is

respect the current environment. Looking

ahead for this pair, an important trendline

from the highs of 1.1000 connecting to1.0765 is on tap now as we write trading

around 1.0350. If this line holds as

immediate resistance we will likely see a

recovery move to support that sits at, 1.0238,

1.0145, 1.0117, and 1.0076.

Outlook: Neutral outlook, start the week offwe expect a wave down to support levels priorto continuation of this move off the lows.

expected areas to be reached are 1.0100 and

1.0030, possible .9980. a break below .9860

gives a more bearish outlook towards the

previous lows near .9400. In the meantime

above this point we will look for long

opportunities on the dips, with the daily still

very bullish. Intraday moves to support can be

expected. When looking for new highs to be

reached we look at 1.0400, 1.0490, and

1.0536.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: Even with talks about continued QEfrom the BOE the pound gains against the

dollar. In the week ahead we have the BOEmeeting min which will bring to light further

QE programs that have been talked about.

One would gather from further QE action from

the BOE the pound would be weaker then it

currently is. With current structure in of this

upward channel the pair eyes resistance at

1.5950 before any major decline. The BOE

minutes will be release Wednesday Morning.

This could end up shifting this pair depending

on what traders decide to do after further

information about their future plans of easingare.

Outlook: Neutral, current move up off the lowsof 1.5270 have been very strong and further

gains are expected. 1.5950 is a very critical

area of resistance that will most likely become

a short term top for now. We look for this to

be hit early in the week. If a pullback happens

before this target look for a long plays to this

target. Support sits at 1.5759, 1.5715,

1.5665, 1.5630. A breal below 1.5630 would

hint towards a move lower towards the lows ofthe month near 1.5400 area. If this bullish

move continues with the steam it currently

has the 1.6000 handle is not far away and

above that is 1.6103 retracement zone that is

very possible in the weeks to come. If the BOE

does not expand the QE program more then is

already expected we may see this move up

continue, any expansion of the program will

likely weaken the single currency and will

most likely reverse this pair back down to

lows.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar


3/5

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Trading


EURUSD: As the EU pulls together to solvecurrent problems the pair has gained over

700+ pips in two weeks from the lows of the

month at 1.3145. Current market moves have

been driven from the crucial decisions of Euro

zone to pull together in this time of crisis for

them. The G20 meets this weekend and the

hot topic will be for sure the Euro Zone and

the possibility of it spreading across the world.

With continued promising solutions we may

see a move up to 1.4050 before this move up

is all said and done. What will be interesting isonce the plans are in place for potential

solutions, will they live up to the expectations

and be lasting for a recovery to sustain.

Currently the environment that the EU is

building off of is very unstable and has many

cracks that may not be repairable, if this is

the case we may see things collapse in themonths to come and will likely see the

EURUSD unravel to the low 1.2000s.

Outlook: Neutral, Current move is bullish fromlows of 1.3145, levels to watch for on the

upside, 1.3940, 1.4013, 1.4050, and

1.4130. To start the week off we will likely see

some sort of recovery to downside prior to the

next major move to upside. Levels to watch

for on the downside are, 1.3789, 1.3729,

1.3681, 1.3611. With current strength

continuing, a move to 1.4030 area is very

likely before this move is over on the upside.

After pullback, bullish moves are favored at

this point. Below 1.3548 we favor moves to

the lows of the month near 1.3200 area.

Euro / United States Dollar


4/5

Elite Global

Trading


Monday:USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index

8:30am

USD: Capacity Utilization Rate 9:15am

USD: Industrial Production 9:15am

AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Min 8:30pm

CNY: GDP 10pm

Tuesday:GBP: CPI 4:30am

EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5am

USD: PPI 8:30am

USD: TIC Long-Term Purchases 9am

USD: Fed Chair Bernanke Speaks

Wednesday:EUR: Current Account 4am

GBP: MPC Meeting Minutes 4:30am

USD: Building Permits 8:30am

USD: Core CPI 8:30am

USD: Beige Book 2pm

Thursday:GBP: Retail Sales 4:30am

USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am

USD: Existing Home Sales 10am

USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10am

Friday:EUR: ECB President Trichet Speaks 3:40am

EUR: German Ifo Business Climate 4am

GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing 4:30am

CAD: Core CPI 7am

Weeks Event Risk


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Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any

loss or damage including without

limitation, indirect or consequential

loss or damage, or any loss or

damage whatsoever arising from

loss of data or profits arising out of,

or in connection with, the use of this

newsletter.

The information contained in this

newsletter is for general information

purposes only. The information is

provided by Elite Global Trading and

while we endeavor to keep the

information up to date and correct,

we make no representations or

warranties of any kind, express or

implied, about the completeness,

accuracy, reliability, suitability or

availability with respect to the

newsletter or the information,

products, services, or related

graphics contained on the

newsletter for any purpose.

News letter Authors:

Anthony [email protected]

James [email protected]

Tel: 786-759-0348

E-mail:

[email protected]

Elite Global Trading

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FX Weekly Commentary - Oct 16 - Oct 22 2011 Elite Global Trading

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