Futures Thinking: 4 s cenarios to help guide our transition to a post-oil society .

DRAFT: June 12, 2006

Futures Thinking:4 scenarios to help guide our

transition to a post-oil society.

Bryn DavidsonDRAFT June 12, 2006


'Pessimists' vs. 'Optimists': Two divergent views of the future. Q: How to create a desirable future in the face of these mixed messages?

Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

International Energy Agency

A: Futures Thinking

captions - J.J.C Bruggink in Four European Energy Futures


Belief:

Technology and markets won’t compensate for

the depletion of conventional fossil fuels.

Belief:

Technology and markets will compensate for

the depletion of conventional fossil fuels.

Technology and Markets


Belief:

The globalized economy will have to contract. It will be supplanted by

local and regional economies.

Belief:

The globalized economy will continue to grow and will be the mainstay into

the next century.

The Globalized Economy


Belief:

As we run out of cheap oil and gas - and start to get

desperate - then we’ll probably burn anything:

coal, forests, crops....

Belief:

Climate Change... hmmm... well we’re

concerned... but we don’t want to damage the

economy.

Climate Change


Oil & Gas peak early & deplete rapidly

Oil & Gas peak later

and deplete slowly

Peak Oil and Climate Change are unprecedented global challenges: defined by

uncertainty while requiring decades of dedicated effort to address.

We can be reactive (leaving our choices to the market).

..or proactive (making investments today that will pay back

in either version of the future)


RapidDepletionand/or early peaking

SlowDepletionand/or later

peaking

Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Markets & Technology

Reactive ResponseTechnology, Markets, Society & Government

* per David Fleming

4 Energy Scenarios

1 2

34




peaking


Reactive ResponseTechnology, Markets, Society & Government

“Burnout”“Collapse”

“Techno-Markets”“Lean Economy” *

* per David Fleming

aka “Climate Chaos”aka “Business as Usual”

aka “Mad Max”aka “Easter Island”

aka “90s Cuba/Russia”

aka “Sustainable Development”aka “Powerdown”

4 Energy Scenarios


“Techno-Markets”aka “Sustainable Development”

* per David Fleming

Example Scenario: Conventional oil peaks before 2010 but the depletion rate is buffered by non-conventional sources and rising prices.

Governments reform tax laws around energy and the environment.

Carbon sequestration allows for the clean use of fossil fuels.

The 'Green' sector shows tremendous growth, while older industries decay.

Developing third-world economies 'leap-frog' to sustainable economies.



peaking


“Techno-Markets”aka “Sustainable Development”

* per David Fleming


Reactive ResponseTechnology, Markets, Government & Society

“Burnout”aka “Climate Chaos”

aka “Business as Usual”

* per David Fleming

Example Scenario: Non-conventional fossil fuels offset depletion masking any overall 'peak'.

The price of oil fluctuates around $70 for several decades and drives a transition to coal, nuclear, and unsustainably sourced biomass.

CO2 emissions skyrocket, while habitats , farmland, and forests are decimated in a rush for wood and biomass.

Super storms, rising sea levels, and desertification cause massive refugee and health crises.


peaking


“Burnout”aka “Climate Chaos”

aka “Business as Usual”

* per David Fleming



Example Scenario: Conventional oil/gas peaks around 2010 and depletes surprisingly fast. Governments enact their rapid-conservation plans drafted in ‘06.

Political and religious groups come together to support international cooperation and help to avert armed conflict and the widespread use of dirty fuels.

The global economy transitions (with the help of a few price and supply shocks) from a global-centric to a regional and local-centric model.

“Lean Economy” *

* per David Fleming

aka “Powerdown”



“Lean Economy” *

* per David Fleming

aka “Powerdown”



Reactive ResponseTechnology, Markets, Government & Society

“Collapse”aka “Mad Max”

aka “Easter Island”aka “90s Cuba/Russia”

Example Scenario: Conventional oil peaks before 2010 and depletes rapidly (faster than substitutes and new sources can be scaled up).

High prices cause 'demand destruction' but the base level of demand is too inelastic to contract voluntarily at the rate of depletion. Natural gas peaks and declines rapidly in many regions (including North America) as LNG growth fails to offset depletion. Multiple recessions eventually lead to negative growth (economic depression).

Nations battle for resources abroad and fight unrest at home. Unemployment soars, global travel and the global economy collapses, health and food crises are rampant.

Populations contract from lower birth rates and lower life expectancies.

Governments revert to city-states while the former suburbs become lawless salvage yards.


“Collapse”aka “Mad Max”

aka “Easter Island”aka “90s Cuba/Russia”


4 possible futures.

Which are most probable?

Which are preferable?

How to make the best decisions

today?


A Few Thoughts on Transition Dynamics

The global economy will bring ‘substitutes’ for oil and gas to the market, but a few questions remain:

Question 2: “Can substitutes scale up quickly enough – relative to the depletion of conventional resources?”

Question 1: “Will we be willing to to pay more, or potentially do less, to bring on clean substitutes?”

Markets are fantastic tools for bringing about new technologies and innovations – but they are a poor mechanism for long term

planning or the preservation of social justice.


Changing what we do is hard and takes a long time... ...unless there is a ‘crisis’.

In a crisis, people can come together in remarkable ways... ...or fight to the death to preserve the life they’ve come to expect.

Our expectations and decisions are never purely rational... ...they are also emotional and cultural

(i.e. we will lean towards what is exciting and/or familiar)

The transition away from cheap oil and gas will likely be punctuated by a number of economic and environmental crises...

...crises that will bring about step-changes in what we expect.

A Few (more) Thoughts on Transition Dynamics


(even more) Thoughts on Transition Dynamics

The more proactive we are – the more likely we are to create a preferred future.

On the path toward creating our preferred future we will have to make hard decisions

– like voluntarily paying more for clean energy vs. dirty energy.

An inclusive dialogue needs to be big enough to encompass many world-views – and different views of the future.

To have a broad impact, these decisions should probably unfold from a broad consensus – and that broad consensus needs to

unfold from an inclusive dialogue.


Coming Soon... from futures thinking to dynamic planning:

How would these future scenarios unfold at the regional & municipal level?

Can we create an iterative/adapative energy model for the region?

Can we unfold real planning and design goals from that energy model?

Can our industrial economy actually begin to have a net-positive impact?

Can we quantify our vulnerability to oil/gas shortage or price shocks?

What are the most effective leverage points (pricing, regulations)?


Futures Thinking:4 scenarios to help guide our

transition to a post-oil society.

Bryn Davidson604.728.0606

[email protected]

www.dynamiccities.org

Thanks, in advance, for your feedback on this draft...

mailto:[email protected]

Futures Thinking: 4 s cenarios to help guide our transition to a post-oil society .

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