FuturesThinking

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MMI

Futures Thinking

Presented by Anne-marie le Roux

2015

“There is nothing stronger in the world, than an idea, whose time has come.”

Victor Hugo

BACK TO THE FUTURE….

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One working definition is:

It is the study of alternative futures, including the worldviews and myths that underlie them.

BUT WHAT IS FUTURES THINKING?

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• Can we predict the future?• Can we create the future?• Why is having a future view important to MMI?• How do we engage in futures thinking?

REFLECTION

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CURIOUS ABOUT THE FUTURE?

• Warren Berger writes: “…in searching for common denominators among brilliant change-makers, one thing I kept finding was that many of them were exceptionally curious”.

• Albert Einstein was once quoted as saying “I have no special talent. I am just passionately curious”.

• Shawn Hunter author of "Out Think: How Innovative Leaders Drive Exceptional Outcomes," defines curiosity as always being interested and attentive and deeply aware that there is always something new to be discovered…

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• What you have explored/taught yourself or discovered in the last 6 month?

• If you had to write an article for your customers, what would the topic be? Why?

• What are you currently wondering about?

CURIOSITY

“Curiosity is the root of innovation.” - Greg Schinkel

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An idea or application, which when implemented, creates future value !

INNOVATION

Source: Prof. Srikant Datar, Harvard Business School

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WHAT IS THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY?

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• 20,000,000 low-birth-weight babies born each year, predominantly in developing countries

• Unable to regulate their own body temperatures, these babies face hypothermia (room temperatures feel frigid to them)

• 20% of these babies die within first month of life

• Those that survive often develop life-long health problems (early onset of diabetes, heart disease, low IQ)

http://embraceglobal.org/main/why

CONTEXT

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INCUBATOR11

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• Need seekers • Market readers• Technology drivers

STRATEGIC MODELS FOR INNOVATION

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• Let’s rate ourselves!

WHERE ARE YOU?

Rate your Business Unit Rate 1-4

1. Managed Innovation Process - My organisation’s strategy, new product development and process improvement processes go beyond the traditional and take an externally-focused, exploratory approach, which challenges the status quo and creatively inspires new thinking

1=Strongly Disagree, 2=Disagree,3=Agree, 4=Strongly Agree5=Absolutely Agree

2. Strategic Alignment - Our leadership supports and drives a collaborative culture that encourages different departments working cross functionally to identify and develop innovative solutions

3. Industry Foresight - My organisation has a systematic process for actively monitoring and exploring emerging trends and developing alternative scenarios that represent either threats or opportunities4. Customer Insight - My organisation directly involves customers (existing and potential) as an integral part of the innovation process, for identifying articulated and unarticulated customer needs

5. Core Technologies and Competencies - My organisation clearly understands its core competencies and has explicitly outlined the linkage between its long-term strategic goals and its short- and medium-term R&D investments and technology strategies

6. Cultural Readiness - My organisation demonstrates an innovative mind-set, a bias for collaboration, an inclusive, non-bureaucratic decision-making style, a willingness to embrace change, and a penchant for action7. Operational Readiness - In order to enable the successful implementation of new ideas my organisation has (or demonstrates a mind-set that is willing to develop) appropriate operational structures and processes and allocates adequate staffing and management support

8. Disciplined Implementation - My organisation consistently create measurable business impact by taking a disciplined approach to the implementation of strategic thinking

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• 35-40 – Strategic InnovatorYour organisation understands the core elements of strategic innovation and is well positioned to remain a leading innovator. Strategic Innovation is inherent in your culture and new products and services may already fill the pipeline. What to do next? – Ensure your organisation continues to anticipate customer needs, cannibalizes its own products and services and sets industry standards. Continue to incorporate your learning and define a process for sustainable innovation.• 29-34 – Inspired InnovatorYour organisation demonstrates some solid innovation practices but there are areas of weakness. The pipeline may be full, though breakthrough opportunities may be outnumbered by incremental innovations. What to do next? – Focus on the areas of weakness and begin to define a process for sustainable innovation.• 24-28 – Hopeful InnovatorSparks of innovation exist, though your results may be skewed toward incremental improvements rather than game-changing innovations. Equally, your approach may be ad hoc and unstructured. What to do next? – Take a systematic view of the core strategic, customer-focused, and organisational factors necessary for Strategic Innovation and immediately seek out “low hanging fruit” opportunities. Take the time to incorporate your learning and start to define a process for sustainable innovation.• <23 – Challenged InnovatorWhile you may recognize that innovation is important, your organisation’s culture and processes do not support Strategic Innovation. Innovation is ad hoc and unstructured. What to do next? – Dedicate resources to a small-scale, focused innovation initiative with measurable deliverables. Take time to incorporate your learning and start to define a process for sustainable innovation.

SCORE

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Adopt a “present to future” orientation – takes today as the starting point

Assume a rule-maker/taker (defensive/follower) posture

Accept established business boundaries/ product categories

Focus on incremental innovation

Follow traditional, linear business planning models

Seeks input from traditional sources

Seek articulated consumer needs

Are technology-driven (seek consumer satisfaction)

May have a “one-size-fits-all” organisational model

“Starts with the end in mind” – identifies long-term opportunities and then “bridges back to the present” – small wins!

Assumes a rule-breaker (revolutionary) posture

Seeks to create new competitive space/ playing fields

Seeks breakthrough, disruptive innovation – while continuing to build the core

Marries process discipline with creative inspiration

Find inspiration in unconventional sources

Seeks unarticulated consumer needs

Is consumer-inspired (seeks consumer delight)

May experiment with entrepreneurial “new venture” or other organisational structures

Traditional Innovative

STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT

Weak growth environment, intensive competition for growth

Abundant growth, less intensive competition for growth

Powerful, disruptive new business models emerge

Traditional life insurance business model remains intact

The MMI Scenarios: 2014 - 2024

Weak growth environment, intensive competition for growth

Abundant growth, less intensive competition for growth

Powerful, disruptive new business models emerge

Traditional insurance business model remains intact

Who Dares Wins

Snowball

Trench Warfare Glory Days

The MMI Scenarios: 2014 - 2024

Probability assessment

Weak growth environment, intensive competition for growth

Abundant growth, less intensive competition for growth

Powerful, disruptive new business models emerge

Traditional insurance business model remains intact

Who Dares Wins

Snowball

Trench Warfare Glory Days

MMI Exco View

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OPPORTUNITY THINKING*

An exercise to open your mind to different perspectives so you can discover your goals.

The question:Take a recent event in the media, which created a lot of negative publicity.

Task:Individually, list at least 5 positive outcomes of the disaster.Discuss within your group, pick the top 5 and share it with the class.

www.setting-and-achieving-goals.com

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• J J A S – What is the next letter?O (Letters of the month)

• O T T F F? – What is the next letter?S (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…)

Let’s play

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• MAPPING and ANTICIPATING the Present and the Future through methods and tools such as the Idealised design; Backcasting and Futures Wheel.

• TIMING the Future, understanding the grand PATTERNS of change, macro-history and macro-futures.

• Creating ALTERNATIVES to the Present through methods such as Scenario planning.

• TRANSFORMING the Present and Creating the Future through Visioning, Backcasting, Action learning etc.

SIX PILLARS OF FUTURES THINKING*

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FUTURES WHEEL*

The Futures Wheel is a method for graphical visualisation of direct and indirect future consequences of a particular change or development. It was invented by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971.

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HOW LONG IS THE FUTURE?

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• Idealised design

IDEALISED DESIGN

Major Stage Sub-stage Description

Idealisation Formulating the mess

This process identifies the strategic challenges facing an organisation and the major needs the which must be addressed.What is the problem?

Ends planning This process depicts the ideal design, without any limitations. What needs to change in the system to enable the ideal. Innovation opportunity!

Means planning Identify the gaps between the ideal and the current. Invent and select courses of action, practices, projects, programs, and policies to be implemented in support of the new system. Innovation opportunity!

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Small win 1

Small win 2

Small win 3

IDEALISED DESIGN*

Current situation

Ideal, imagined

future

Projected futures

Forecasting projects current situation to furture trends

TimeCourtesy of Dostal, E. et al, 2003

(Adapted by Anne-marie le Roux)

Back casting

• Once ideals have been formulated, innovative strategies are to be formulated and implemented to bridge the gap between the current and ideal situations.

• This process is referred to as back casting. • Incremental steps are then used to build the bridge between the current

situation and the ideal future.

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• Default future – look at data will happen without intervention• Used future – habit, process or system that is done unconsciously. E.g use IQ

although we need more EQ, tallest building vs. designing more gardens because the west does it.

• Disowned future – develop ego that disowned other identities, only study numbers but loved music when I was 18. CEO leaves wife – loosing family for job.

• Alternative futures – not one, but many futures. Needs flexibility to deal with many expectations.

• Inner story – every person has a story, which informs your past and your future. Is that story effective in the world you want to create. Make visible the disconnect.

• How do you use the future – for new tools, or for capacity building – what is the purpose of designing this future?

INAYATULLAH: SIX BASIC CONCEPTS TO STUDY THE FUTURE

https://vimeo.com/20836223

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• Doblin’s 10 places for innovation

DOBLIN’S 10

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1. Google2. Bloomberg Philanthropies (Donor $-power for Climate, Tobacco legislation)3. Xiaomi (Cheap technology to masses)4. Dropbox (Cloud warehouse for data)5. Netflix (Web based media streaming of movies & shows)6. Airbnb (Web based marketing of private lodging & B&B’s)7. Uber (App connects you with a driver near your location)8. Zipdial (Mobile marketing for global brands)9. DonorsChoose.org (Gives worthy causes a platform $1 donation)10. Yelp (Connecting supply and demand)

http://www.fastcompany.com/3026098/most-innovative-companies-2014/the-worlds-most-innovative-companies-2014

GLOBAL INNOVATORS 2014

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INNOVATION & IDEATION: TWO APPROACHES

FAR IDEAS

-ER IDEAS

RESOURCES

SWEET SPOT

Go far…. Don’t go too far…

Diverge Converge

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• We are all creative but we suffer from “fixedness”• Form, functional, structures and attributes are all seen as fixed

in a specific context

INNOVATION AND FIXEDNESS

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To improve a scenario, remove attributes or elements which seem indispensable.

Example: Mobile Phone

Innovation tool: SUBSTRACTION

By multiplying (or adding) elements already existing, the adjustment delivers a qualitative change.

Example: Gears on a bicycle

Innovation tool: MULTIPLICATION

By dividing the system into its component parts – the change in perspective leads to newness and increased application.

Example: Planning a vacation

Innovation tool: DIVISION

• Assignment of a new task or purpose to an existing system.

Example: Smart Phone (camera, music, GPS)

Innovation tool: UNIFICATION

• Using the principles from a different sector or organisation, to generate fresh ideas about addressing a concern.

Example: Retailing into Financial Service

Innovation tool: ALTERNATIVE ENVIRONMENTS

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Let’s play

Try matching the animal with the invention:

1. bat ( ) parachute

2. armadillo ( ) jet propulsion

3. chameleon ( ) anaesthetic

4. fish ( ) helicopter

5. flying squirrel ( ) suction cup

6. squid ( ) hypodermic

7. hummingbird ( ) radar

8. scorpion ( ) camouflage

9. snake ( ) electricity

10. abalone ( ) tank

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Let’s play

1. bat (5) parachute

2. armadillo (6) jet propulsion

3. chameleon (9 or 8) anaesthetic

4. fish (7) helicopter

5. flying squirrel (10) suction cup

6. squid (8 or 9) hypodermic

7. hummingbird (1) radar

8. scorpion (3) camouflage

9. snake (4) electricity

10. abalone (2) tank

INNOVATION MODELS

• Michael Porter talks about “continuous” and “discontinuous” innovation• Tushman and Anderson distinguish between “incremental” and “breakthrough”

innovation • Abernathy and Clark refer to “conservative” vs. “radical” innovations• Clayton Christensen shows the difference between “sustaining” and “disruptive”

innovations

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• Product innovation

PRODUCT INNOVATION

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INNOVATION WINDOW

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ENERGY FOR OBSTABLES

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Newspaper editors decided to go on strike. (Red) & The cab lacked proper brakes to stop at the intersection. (Black)

1. A big, old, hungry dog appeared at our door every morning.

2. The cop persuaded him not to create a disturbance.

3. The Brazilian student Paulo lives around the corner from us.

4. You shouldn't let an upstart like him bother you.

5. He let out a big yell, owing to the injuries he received when he fell.

6. La Jolla venders decided to cut their prices in half.

7. Long rayon fabrics were loaded on the truck.

8. The Austrian physicist Wolfgang Pauli lacked the requisite documents to enter the U.S.

9. You shouldn't sell this fossil very cheaply because it is a rare specimen.

10. The new law hit everybody's pocketbook pretty hard.

Let’s play

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1. A big, old, hungry dog appeared at our door every morning.

2. The cop persuaded him not to create a disturbance.

3. The Brazilian student Paulo lives around the corner from us.

4. You shouldn't let an upstart like him bother you.

5. He let out a big yell, owing to the injuries he received when he fell.

6. La Jolla venders decided to cut their prices in half.

7. Long rayon fabrics were loaded on the truck.

8. The Austrian physicist Wolfgang Pauli lacked the requisite documents to enter the U.S.

9. You shouldn't sell this fossil very cheaply because it is a rare specimen.

10. The new law hit everybody's pocketbook pretty hard.

Let’s play

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CUSTOMER EMPATHY*

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RETAIL INNOVATION

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ROPE EXERCISE

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Objective To get yourself unhooked from your partner.

End result Your own ropes on your own wrists when completed.

Cannot Cut, burn, chew, wear down, slice, dice or dynamite the ropes.

Cannot Untie the ropes.

Cannot Take ropes off your wrists, or your partner’s wrists or anyone else’s wrists.

Rope Exercise

Rope Exercise

Rope Exercise

Rope Exercise

Rope Exercise

• Innovation and teamwork

THE FUTURE NEEDS…

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“There’s a myth around the whole ‘good idea’ concept. A good idea is a series of incrementally good ideas. If you look back on the greatest innovations of our time,

especially in technology, there was no ‘light- bulb’ moment. Innovation comes from a crazy idea, which is bounced off a client then bounced over to the

management team then back to the developers and back to the client etc. Three years later it’s an overnight success!”

Steve Jobs

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Every organisation has a diverse group of personalities that respond differently to particular management styles. The creatives of an organisation are often the group that stands out and may be misunderstood.

Does your company create the context for creatives to flourish?

MANAGING INNOVATORS

Hire innovative people Design complex & challenging jobs

Make innovation a Company goal

Recognise & reward innovation

Set innovation goals

Promote diverse teams

Create the right culture

Provide resourcese.g. time

“Be Creative!”

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DE BONO’S 6 HATS

Cautious; negative critique

Optimistic; positive critique

Creativity; new ideas; alternatives

Emotional; intuitive

Neutral; objective

Management; organizing

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GET INNOVATIVE

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ASSESSING CULTURE

Source: Synecticsworld

INNOVATION & CULTURE

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Elephant (System 1) Rider (System 2)

Intuitive Analytical

Effortless Deliberate

Auto-pilot Considered

“Hits snooze” “Sets the alarm”

Emotional

To sustain change, get the elephant and rider to work together

Elephant: Needs motivation—passion, recognition, pride, fun to follow a changed pathRider: Needs direction—goal, plan, framework

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LAST THOUGHTS

“Whether you think you can or you cannot – you are right!”

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READING

Business InnovationBlue Ocean StrategyRenée Mauborgne & W. Chan KimThe Other Side of InnovationVijay GovindarajanThe Innovation Secrets of Steve JobsCarmine GalloCompeting for the Future Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad The Lean Start-UpEric ReisThe Innovator’s DilemmaClayton M. ChristensenThe Innovator’s SolutionClayton M. ChristensenThe Innovator’s DNAClayton M. Christensen

New Product & Service InnovationThe Art of InnovationTom KelleyWinning at New ProductsRobert CooperCrossing The ChasmGeoffrey A. MooreThe Art of InnovationTom KelleyThis is Service Design ThinkingMarc Stickdorn

Open InnovationOpen InnovationHenry ChesbroughA Guide to Open Innovation and CrowdsourcingPaul SloaneThe Open Innovation RevolutionStefan Lindegaard

Business Model InnovationBusiness Model GenerationAlexander OsterwalderOpen Business ModelsHenry ChesbroughSeizing the White SpaceMark W. JohnsonHarvard Business Review on Building Your Business ModelHarvard Business School Publishing

Organisational InnovationDriving Growth Through InnovationRobert B. TuckerInnovation to the CorePeter SkarzynskiInnovate or Evaporate James M. HigginsInnovation and EntrepreneurshipPeter DruckerDemocratizing InnovationEric von HippelWhat Matters NowGary HamelThe Future of ManagementGary Hamel

Strategic ThinkingThe Art of the Long ViewPeter SchwartzStrategic ThinkingSimon WoottonAhead of the CurveSteven Stowell

New Ideas & Creative ThinkingWhere Good Ideas Come FromSteven JohnsonA Whack on the Side of the HeadRoger Von OechCreative Whack Pack (set of cards)Roger Von OechIDEO Method Cards (set of cards)IDEOThinkertoysMichael MichalkoCorporate CreativityAlan Robinson & Sam Stern