Futures study - IZT€¦ · Axel Biermann, Ruhr Tourismus GmbH Stefan Lohnert, SevenCenters of...
Transcript of Futures study - IZT€¦ · Axel Biermann, Ruhr Tourismus GmbH Stefan Lohnert, SevenCenters of...
1
Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping
our industry
Futures study
2
3
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Petra Hedorfer (GNTB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Matthias Schultze (GCB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Partners and supporters of the study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Situation and challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Megatrends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Globalisation and internationalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 "Peak Everything" – Shortage of resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Urbanisation – City of the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Demographic change, feminisation and diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Technology in work and life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Sustainable development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Mobility in the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Transfer of knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Summary of study results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Participants in the futures study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Solely for reasons of better readability, we use the masculine form only for gender-specific terms in our study. This includes both genders as a matter of course.
Contents
Table of Contents
4
Preface
“It is not our task to predict the future but to be well-prepared for it.” PERICLES (5TH CENTURY BEFORE CHRIST)
5
When it comes to the rating of destinations for meetings and conventions, Germany has always been in the top range of all important international rankings. But it would be careless to rely on the assumption that this favourable situation would automatically continue.
Due to globalisation and technology, increasing mobility and the constantly evolving idea of sustainability, the general circumstances are subject to rapid change. The German Convention Bureau has made it their business to determine the challenges we might be facing in the years to come, and the measures that might be suitable to maintain our success as a meeting and convention destination on a high level or even increase it in the future.
To paint a detailed picture of probable future developments in the meeting and convention business, the GCB has prepared this study with the support of a wide selection of industry partners. The joint preparation for the challenges we will be facing bears many opportunities for further growth!
With reference to eight generally applicable so-called "megatrends", numerous fields of activity may be derived for our industry, which shall be further examined in the eight chapters of the study.
Specific scenarios have been designed for this study focussing on architecture, transfer of know ledge and technologies, which provide a good overview of how trends that are currently emerging will develop up until 2030.
The aim of the study will have been reached if a constant dialogue continous and sustainable is established among the players in the industry as well as with representatives of politics and science, which will ideally develop into a continuous process of jointly and collaboratively managing the challenges we will be facing. Against this background, providers and event planners on the one hand can derive individual strategies, and industry associations can use the study to create a common roadmap for the future on the other.
I would like to thank our study partners whose support has clearly enabled us to prepare the study in the given form, the participants in the Delphi surveys, the participants in the interviews and workshops, the numerous industry experts, the representatives of politics and society, the scientists from the most different disciplines and the IZT (Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment).
Preface
Petra Hedorfer, Chief Executive Officer of the German National Tourist Board (GNTB) and Chair of the GCB’s Board of Directors
Matthias Schultze, Managing Director of the GCB German Convention Bureau
6
Study partners
Gerrit Jessen, MCI Deutschland GmbH
Joachim König, EVVC European Association of Event Centres
"Globalisation, unlimited mobility and sustainability: these are only three factors which have a large impact on conventions and events already today. We participate in the study to be able to identify future trends early, using them to develop recom-mendations for our customers. As a global agency, we regularly invest in research concerning the event indus-try in our core markets."
In your opinion, which will be the most
important challenges in the area of meetings and
conventions of the future, and why have
you participated in the study?
"For the EVVC, the crucial challenge is to inform the members of the association in a comprehensive way about trends, outlooks and concepts regarding possible future develop-ments, identifying critical develop-ments for the event industry early on and mastering them. The biggest challenge will be to recognise the changes to be made to event formats in the future. The demographic de-velopment with an increasingly older, more colourful and feminine society will also show its impact on the meet-ing and convention industry – both on the participants and on the staff. Our reason to participate in the study is to learn new approaches in thinking, novel ideas and opportunities regard-ing this topic."
Study partners
7
Study partners
Axel Biermann, Ruhr Tourismus GmbH
Stefan Lohnert, SevenCenters of Germany
Heike Mahmoud, visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office
"The Ruhr metropolitan area as the third-largest urban agglomeration in Europe reflects the societal mega-trends like a melting pot. Examples of the future-oriented change in the region are the former coal mines which are now used as locations for events and meetings, and Innova-tionCity Ruhr, a project regarding a climate-friendly reconstruction of a model city.
We have participated in the study because we would like to obtain new findings to implement this new spirit of innovation of the region in meet-ings and convention tourism too."
"The most important challenge in our industry is as simple as difficult: to be able to constantly adapt to the framework conditions which are changing in an increasingly fierce way and markedly faster. Those can be space-related, technical but also legal requirements – and this in an international context.
The study is an important oppor-tunity to mutually bring us up to speed, comparing our activities to the actions of the top players in the industry in addition."
"Conventions and meetings represent an important part of knowledge trans-fer and personal exchange of informa-tion. Markets and customer behaviour are changing at a breathtaking speed, almost in parallel with the technologi-cal evolution of society. One of our tasks is to provide strong networks and platforms for innovation and trends to our Berlin customers. The integration of science in this process, as is currently realised by the German Convention Bureau, is an important contribution for the meeting industry, not only in Germany but all over the world. Berlin is one of the leading convention destinations of the world. We have participated in this study in order to learn the requirements of the future."
Study partners
8
Study partners
EDITOR OF THE STUDY
STUDY PARTNERS
9
Supporters
SUPPORTERS OF THE STUDY
German National Tourist Board
10
Situation and challengesReliable information about the future and the identification of actionable options for shaping that future are more and more urgently required to be able to master the big challenges of globalisation, rapid societal change and the tech-nological and scientific changes both in terms of the seizing of opportunities and the assessment of risks.
Introduction
Future Study: Fields of actionFuture ScenariosStatement from Experts
Futurology: Desktop Research, Delphi Survey, Interviews with Experts, Scenario Workshop, Online Workshop
Megatrends
Measures and
Suggestions2014: Development
of a Roadmap
11
Introduction
In the past decades, meetings and
conventions have developed into sig-
nificant economic factors with compara-
tively good prospects for the future. In
Germany, 2.97 million events hosting
362 million participants were held in
2012. Among all meeting and conven-
tion destinations, Germany is presently
the number one location in Europe and
number two in the world - after the
U.S.A.
An important reason for the unchal-
lenged position as European market
leader is Germany’s excellent infrastruc-
ture. A broad network of providers from
various industries offers ideal prerequi-
sites for the organisation of successful
meetings and conventions. The wide
range of top-class meeting hotels,
congress centres and event locations is
of particular importance here, as is the
excellent value for money. And the trans-
port connections with more than 40 air-
ports, an extensive railway network and
well developed motorways are unique
as well. In addition, German providers
distinguish themselves by their high
power of innovation and their leading
position in the area of "Green Meetings"
and sustainability, for example.
"Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of
megatrends shaping our industry" shall con-
tribute to the efforts aimed at safeguarding
that power of innovation. This study identi-
fies, analyses and evaluates trends and
drifts with regard to their expected develop-
ment until 2030 and their significance for
the meeting and convention industry. The
aim is to bring attention to relevant trends
early on to allow the industry to respond
in time, thereby protecting and further
expanding Germany’s successful position
as a meeting and convention destination.
The providers and meeting organisers of
today shall be offered a tool for shaping the
meeting and convention industry of tomor-
row, to be able to efficiently go along with
developments, and partly even influence or
control them.
Events promote innovation
The meeting and convention industry in
its multifaceted appearance is particularly
affected by the ever increasing complexity
of the modern world. Meetings, conven-
tions and events serve as platforms for
exchanging experiences and ideas. For
this reason, their successful organisation
also depends on numerous contextual
conditions and prerequisites – and this
is not likely to change during the next
few decades. By forming
a basis for an exchange of
information and the transfer
of knowledge and support-
ing all aspects of education,
events also promote innova-
tion. In this way, they gener-
ate impulses for political,
economic, scientific, and so-
cial processes, serving as an
instrument for international
understanding in addition. All the more,
significant players need to identify and
communicate future-oriented topics early
on and integrate them in their business
strategies. Modern scientific futurology
may make a material contribution here,
providing support and stimulation.
A tool for the meeting and convention industry of tomorrow
Recognised experts from all relevant
scientific disciplines as well as partners
and members of the German Convention
Bureau were involved in the scientific
work in a targeted way, contributing their
expertise to this study.
Proven methods of modern scientific
futurology were used for preparing the
study: in addition to guideline-based
interviews with international and national
experts, these included scientific trend
analyses, a two-step Delphi survey of se-
lected international and national experts, a
broad online survey within the industry on
the further development of the meeting
and convention industry and a process-
oriented and participatorily designed
outlining of scenarios. Initially, this study
gives an overview of the current situation
of the meeting and convention industry.
Based on that, selected social megatrends
especially important to the industry are
described: globalisation, shortage of re-
sources, urban development, demographic
change, feminisation and diversity, mecha-
nisation and digitalisation, sustainable
development, mobility and safety.
These developments are very plausible
and likely; due to the complexity of the
individual developments, the descrip-
tions shall not serve as "forecasts",
however. They shall rather stimulate the
reader to imagine various and multifac-
eted possible developments which are
interconnected in addition.
DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPMENTS, THE DESCRIPTIONS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY SHALL NOT SERVE AS FORECASTS. THEY SHALL RATHER STIMULATE THE READER TO IMAGINE VARIOUS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS.
12
Megatrends
Globalisation and
internationalisation
Sustainable development
Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
„Peak Everything"
Mobility in the future
Urbanisation – city of the future
Safety
Technology in work and life
13
Megatrends
An important starting point for futures studies based on scientific facts is the concept of "megatrends" which is also used for the given study. Trends in general indicate factors resulting from change and innovation.
Megatrends are long-term overall transformations encompassing a long time frame and demonstrating a wide reach as well as high impact and stability. They can be experienced by anyone, as they lead to a paradigm shift or reorientation e.g. in politics, during leisure time, at work, and in the structures of value creation (in the meeting and convention industry, for example), thus resulting in overall change.
The term "megatrend" was created by John Naisbitt, a U.S. trend researcher, in his book of the same name in 1982. Today, four characteristic features are attributed to a megatrend:
» Stability: exists for at least two decades
» Omnipresence: has an effect on all areas of life
» Universality: is of a basically global character despite regional differences
» Robustness: survives even temporary setbacks
Megatrends
14
MEGATREND
Globalisation and internationalisation
Megatrends | Globalisation and internationalisation
15
Contrary to previous ages, the kind of glo-
balisation which has been observable dur-
ing the past decades is a process impacting
the entire surface of our planet. This pro-
cess is multifaceted and can be identified
in almost all areas of social life. It immedi-
ately involves more and more population
groups on all continents. Increasing global
interrelations between areas like economy,
politics, social life, culture, communica-
tion and environment can be seen. The
complexity of global relationships grows
on the level of individuals, institutions,
states, companies and associations as well
as supranational organisations such as the
European Union.
This consolidation of relationships be-
tween states in particular is referred to
as internationalisation. Development is
directed away from merely national politics
and towards the consolidation with and
delegation of regulation competences to
supranational and international institu-
tions.
Globalisation indicators
Almost all of the indicators for globalisation
such as individual mobility, goods transport
volume, communication and internet access
are pointing upward. The same applies to
the areas of culture, language and politics.
International legal relations are increas-
ing, as is the number of organisations, the
importance of non-governmental organisa-
tions is growing.
SOFI futures studies
As part of an international think tank - the
"Millennium Project" - futurologists and
masterminds gather information about fu-
tures studies, and produce the "State of the
Future Index" (SOFI) annually. The research-
ers assess areas indicating an improvement
or deterioration during the past 20 years,
projecting them over the next 10 years into
the future. The latest SOFI stated: •
Megatrends | Globalisation and internationalisation
Foreign participants in events in Germany (in millions)
14.316.6 17.5 16.6
18.719.9
22.1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
*Forecast based on the average annual change rate for the period 2006-2012, EITW
2020: A total of 80 million overnight stays by foreign guests in Germany
2010
60m
+14mEurope
+4mAsia, Arabic Gulf
States
+2mAmericas
2020
80m
SOU
RCE
: GN
TB F
OR
ECA
ST
16
Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Head at the FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE STUDIES (BAT – British American Tobacco)
"There is less poverty in the world, fewer
infectious diseases, and less war. People are
living longer, the literacy rate is growing,
more women are in public offices and the
internet is more widespread than ever".
b For further information please refer to
www.gcb.de/en/future
Localisation and diversity as countertrendAs is the case with all megatrends, globali-
sation is no monolithic process. There are
opposing trends like the important phenom-
enon of "glocalisation" or localisation, where
local and traditional aspects are strength-
ened. At a cultural level, diversity and variety
are, in part, a result of globalisation. For
globally acting companies, this means that
they have to better take into account the re-
quirements of local customers and markets
despite the increasing homogenisation in
many product areas. This is especially true
for the meeting and convention industry.
In view of the rapidly changing framework
conditions, the significance of meetings
and conventions distributed over several
locations and countries is growing. Now it is
even more important to know perceptions
and backgrounds from the various markets,
countries and people in order to plan and
react correctly.
Globalisation as a dynamical process
The forms of globalisation represent a com-
prehensive and powerful process causing
different interests to arise which may be of
international impact.
b "Global Trends 2030": further link at
www.gcb.de/en/future
Increasing efforts to achieve "global governance"
Against the background of existing and pos-
sibly arising economic, technological, eco-
logical and sociocultural challenges, the ef-
forts to achieve "global governance" should
intensify. Understanding and concerted
action ("coalitions of the willing" in climate
protection, for example) will be agreed upon
more often in the future.
Due to globalisation, meetings and conven-tions will have to become even more interna-tional. What does this mean in detail for the meeting and conventions industry in Germany during the next two decades?
"Due to the international competition between destina-
tions, the participation in conventions will also depend on
the ability and willingness to pay for such participation in
view of economic crises. The attendance at events in far
away countries might decrease also because of the time
needed and the associated efforts. In any case, intercultur-
al skills have to be strengthened and technological options
need to be utilised in a targeted way."
•
Megatrends | Globalisation and internationalisation
17
» Taking into account patterns of expectation, lan-
guages, cultural behaviours as well as ways of com-
munication and interaction when preparing and
organising successful meetings and conventions
(including the use of technology)
» Qualification and further education measures for the
strengthening of intercultural sensitivity, language
skills and attentive manners of communication
» Investing in market research and education
» Forming strategic marketing alliances
» Intensified competition with emerging destinations
such as the BRICS states
» Adapting to a new range of participants from the emerg-
ing destinations
» Growing importance of meeting locations and events
as an essential platform for the increasing processes of
clarification and networking
» Increasing requirements in the area of intercultural
skills / sensitivity
» Measures» Challenges
INTERCULTURAL SKILLS GROW MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT.
ConclusionsWith globalisation, the international competi-
tion among former competitors in the German
meeting and convention industry will aggra-
vate. In addition, there are emerging destina-
tions such as the BRICS states. Initially, they
will be attractive mainly within a regionally
limited area, but later develop global attrac-
tiveness depending on their international
orientation – especially in view of the prosper-
ing economies and the growing middle class
of those regions which are of special relevance
for meetings and conventions.
During the course of the progressing interna-
tionalisation and globalisation of the markets
and societal structures, the meeting and con-
vention industry will gain in importance. Suit-
ably equipped meeting locations and events
are an essential prerequisite for the increasing
processes of clarification and networking. For
globally acting organisations in particular, ef-
ficient exchange of information and transfer of
knowledge are of particular importance as their
market position and services are mainly based
on the development and leveraging of intel-
lectual resources.
Patterns of expectation, languages, cultural
behaviours as well as ways of communication
and interaction will need to be taken into con-
sideration even more in the future. This applies
to salutations, for example, religious rituals,
necessary meeting breaks and locations for
prayer, forms of contact and taboos, holidays
and food culture.
But the local ambience of event locations is im-
portant as well and has to meet international
requirements and competitive criteria. Against
the background of increasing globalisation,
destinations are facing the challenge to better
concentrate their forces. Ideally, they will jointly
try to attract events, participants and guests
using a coordinated or even shared strategy.
Megatrends | Globalisation and internationalisation
18
MEGATREND
"Peak Everything" – Shortage of resources
Megatrends | Peak Everything
19
Megatrends | Peak Everything
Since the beginning of industriali-sation, the consumption of natural resources has increased hugely all over the world. Several resources are clearly facing depletion, which partly results in their prices significantly increasing. Environmental stress may affect regions worldwide, influencing the utilisation of resources. At the same time, the global population of currently around 7 billion people will have grown to around 9 billion by the year 2050, which will additionally ag-gravate the problem.
Climate change
The consequences are visible in climate
change. Between 1970 and 2000 the portion
of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 1.5
parts per million (ppm) per year - since then,
it has been increasing by 2.1 ppm per year.
The developed as well as the developing
countries are responsible for more than 80
per cent of those emissions. Although they
have committed to reducing emissions in
the meantime, this commitment will not be
sufficient to reduce CO2 concentration in an
adequate way.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPPC) had actually expected the
given changes of the weather and climate to
occur only after 2020.
With the so-called "Earth Overshoot Day",
the Global Footprint Network has pointed
out for years when the yearly available
environmental budget would be con-
sumed each year. In the year 2013, this was
20 August instead of 31 December: this
means that mankind had consumed the
environmental budget for the whole year
within only eight months. In 2011, the budget
had lasted for around one month longer:
until 27 September.
IN 2013, THE "EARTH OVERSHOOT DAY" - THE DAY WHEN THE YEARLY AVAILABLE ENVIRONMENTAL BUDGET IS DEPLETED - WAS 20 AUGUST.
•
Consumption of natural resources
100%
135%
In 2011, mankind consumed 135% of the resources generated by nature
QU
ELLE
: FO
OTP
RIN
TNET
WO
RK
.OR
G
20
Consequences of the climate changeIt is expected that extreme weather
events will occur more often, which may
affect the areas of infrastructure or
technology, for example, posing a social,
economic and ecological challenge for
the international community. Within the
global context, Germany needs to better
prepare for the consequences of climatic
changes as well.
Efficient utilisation of resources and social responsibilitySo far, societies respond with technologi-
cal innovations and individual measures.
Resource efficiency is increased and
renewable resources are used. Companies
respond to the increasing requirements
by means of activities in the areas of
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and
Corporate Citizenship (CC).
In addition to those activities, further
measures to meet the challenges are con-
ceivable, such as restrictions for resource-
intensive products and services.
Work-life balanceApart from ecological stress there is also
stress in the social and cultural areas: ac-
celeration and omnipresent performance
requirements and performance increases
are more and more depleting personal re-
sources as well. Against the background of
this development, work-life balance will play
an increasingly important role.
•
Astrid Messmer Rodriguez, Head of Business Area Strategy and Coordinator of the Corporate Responsibility Council, Deutsche Lufthansa AG
Due to resource bottlenecks, climate change and the environmental burden, the social, economic and ecological problems already visible today will have further increased by 2030. Which measures do you take to meet the challenges?
"The Lufthansa Group has been working for years on meet-
ing people's growing need for mobility in a way which is as
environmentally-friendly as possible. In the area of climate
protection, the Group has big plans and has set itself am-
bitious targets. Our environmental targets are guided by
the industry's established four-pillar strategy which links
various environmentally-relevant measures. They range
from technological progress, via an improved infrastruc-
ture and operational measures right through to economic
instruments. In addition to investments of billions in new,
particularly efficient and quiet aircraft, we are involved
in numerous trend-setting projects which sustainably
improve the environmental compatibility of flying."
Megatrends | Peak Everything
21
» Challenges » Limits to natural resources, resulting in price increases
and global environmental burden
» Disturbances to infrastructure and technology and
impairment of mobility as a consequence of extreme
weather events and climatic changes
» Rising importance of work-life balance due to omni-
present acceleration, performance requirements and
performance increases
» Measures » Consistent ecological and sustainable organisation
of meetings and conventions and corresponding
promotion
» Construction of convention buildings, energy
generation and utilisation of resources, air condition-
ing, catering and framework programme adapted to
the overall requirements
» Standardisation and certification based on the
principles of sustainability for many segments
of event organisation (including sustainable and
intelligent traffic concepts)
» Adequate consideration of elements of psychosocial
regeneration as an essential need of the participants
APPROACHES DIRECTED AT ECOLOGICAL AND SUSTAINABLY ORGANISED MEETINGS AND CONVENTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT.
ConclusionsThe meeting and convention industry is
affected by shortage of resources, climate
change and stress in several ways. Ap-
proaches directed at ecological and sustain-
ably organised meetings and conventions will
therefore certainly increase in importance. The
requirements for sustainable actions increase,
extending to all areas of conducting meetings
and conventions: from the resource-sparing
construction of buildings, energy genera-
tion, efficient utilisation of resources and air
conditioning, through to the catering and the
framework programme. Not least the demands
regarding the organisers of meetings and
conventions and their expertise in terms of
sustainable activities are increasing as well.
In the future, the certification standards for
sustainable events should play a decisive role,
both in terms of transparency and scientific
integrity.
The consequences of climate change will have
a varying impact on the different regions.
Accordingly, the kinds of impairment will also
differ greatly. Local extreme weather events
can affect infrastructure and mobility. In addi-
tion, speakers may not be able to show for the
meeting, and deliveries may be delayed. In cit-
ies with a high frequency of heat waves, equip-
ping the convention buildings with powerful
air conditioning systems or other technical
solutions will be very important. Depending on
the climate, additional costs for prevention and
damage handling will arise.
With regard to personal stress, offers taking
into account psychosocial regeneration as
well might meet the participants’ need for
relaxation. Attractively packaged solutions
for speakers and participants might generate
added value for the event, which makes the
journey and participation more "rewarding" in a
professional, touristic and personal sense.
Megatrends | Peak Everything
22
MEGATREND
Urbanisation – City of the future
Megatrends | Urbanisation
23
The process of urbanisation has been going on for centuries and is not likely to end soon. In 1975, 38 per cent of the global population lived in cities, in 2008 it was more than half, and in 2030 it will be more than 60 per cent according to a United Nations report. Even in already strongly urbanised Ger-many, where three fourths of the population are living in cities, the areas of high population density and metropolitan areas are still growing despite the total popula-tion being decreasing.
A specific characteristic of the urbanisa-
tion process is the so-called megacity.
Depending on the definition, metropo-
lises with at least ten million inhabitants
and polycentric agglomerations with
several centres are included (McGee
1998). Accordingly, the Rhein-Ruhr
metropolitan area with its far more than
13 million inhabitants also counts among
the megacities (UN 2004). Due to their
growing number, enormous size and
rapid development megacities will have
gained in importance all over the world
by 2030. They are focal points of globali-
sation processes and – which should not
be underestimated – locations for inter-
national meetings and congresses in a
world which is more and more dominated
by cities.
Progressing urbanisation on the one
hand is accompanied by settlement
areas (mainly smaller cities) which are
being depleted in the course of the
increasing concentration of the popula-
tion on the other. Such "shrinking cities"
can be observed in developed countries
in particular.
Temporary usage concepts
It can be expected that by 2030 even
more people than today will use flexible
forms of living and working. Be it for a
business or private reason – temporary
living and working solutions in various
forms and price categories will gain im-
portance in the future. Unoccupied areas
and buildings in cities may easily become
especially lively locations of temporary
"intermediate usage". The meeting and
convention industry can also benefit
from this fact by locating meetings and
events exactly at those places of innova-
tive culture production and vivid publicity
which initially cannot be developed by ur-
ban planning and the real estate market
in this manner.
Intelligent technologies
In the year 2030, the city as a focal point
of human life and important location
for events will have to rely on intel-
ligent technologies for an efficient and
networked infrastructure. It is essential
to establish smart technologies as in-
novative solutions to the requirements
faced by cities in various areas of living
and working.
Megatrends | Urbanisation
Due to their enormous size and rapid development, megacities will have gained in importance as focal points of globalisation all over the world by 2030. Which design potentials have to be devel-oped and which approach do you follow with respect to this trend? What does Berlin currently do to achieve its goals?
Heike Mahmoud, CMP, Director Conventions, visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office
"For conventions, the increasing
urbanisation is a challenge which can
be mastered using special service,
regional integration and attractive
additional offers. The specific address-
ing of target groups and customised
touristic offers with local colouring are
increasingly important in international
competition. Apart from that we try
to offer special benefits by means of
concrete sustainability projects. Berlin
has become part of an international
network. As a member of the "BestCi-
ties Global Alliance" of ten leading
convention cities worldwide, we offer a
powerful network and tailored services
for any customer. The services are re-
viewed and certified annually by Lloyds
Registered Quality Assurance. In this
manner, we can offer our customers
great added value. Berlin is one of the
most diverse metropolises in Europe: a
trendsetter in an international context,
vivid art and design capital, a city that
is constantly changing. Those capaci-
ties and innovations have an increasing
impact on the contents of meetings
and conventions. The know-how of
the city leaves its mark on the events
in form of key notes or best practices.
A win-win situation for both sides for
shaping the future."
•
24
Megatrends | Urbanisation
•
» Challenges » Increasing requirements especially for megacities as
focal points of globalisation processes and central
locations for international meetings and conventions
» Need for a stronger differentiation of destinations due
to a more fierce competitive situation
» Measures » Improvement of accessibility and connectivity as
well as cultural attractiveness
» Support of the local environs: cityscape, cultural
offers, aesthetic appeal, and exotic environment
conditions, while at the same time ensuring safety
» Identification of economic and scientific
competences
» Formation of clusters and strategic alliances
ConclusionsSince their historic emergence, cities have
been creative spaces for social, economic,
ecological and political innovations. Due to
their social density and close work-sharing
network, concentration of knowledge and
infrastructures, they have always played
a special future-oriented role. Cities
allow for a close and quick exchange of
information between the social players – a
prerequisite for sound strategies. This is
the reason why urban areas have been
locations for the organisation of meetings
and conventions for a long time and will
be in the future.
In international and greater regional
competition between cities and regions to
become event locations, the individually
suitable cities and city networks need to
be identified and promoted. For the fu-
ture, questions regarding accessibility and
connectivity will arise in particular. Aside
from that, the individual characteristics of
a city or urban area will play an important
role. A city’s appearance, cultural offers or
special conditions of the surroundings are
decisive criteria for participation in events
to some target groups. Hospitality, safety,
language, tolerance and openness are
some of the "soft criteria" for the compe-
tition. Today, some "famous" events are
already located in rather small cities, such
as the "World Economic Forum" in Davos.
Direct shaping of such parameters is
difficult and can be mastered in the long
run only. Bilbao has been successful: with
urban design measures and enormous
costs, like for the Guggenheim Museum
designed by top architect Gehry, very high
numbers of visitors and economic growth
rates have been generated. But the "Bil-
bao effect" is based on special constella-
tions and can not be imitated or repeated.
Nevertheless, this example of success
shows that it makes sense to think
holistically and for the medium term. Or
develop a local leitmotiv where the most
different players can get involved and con-
tribute. For some destinations, this might
also mean to emphasise and cultivate
qualities like calm, a feeling of security,
cosiness, nature, etc.
Another variant is made up of urban
centres that are able to distinguish them-
selves by means of local colouring. Mainly
large urban areas such as Berlin, Munich
or the Ruhr Metropolitan Area can still
position themselves in the international
market, while providers in other urban
areas may rely on regional demand. But
even here, attractive offers and formats
are conceivable which meet the require-
ments of certain target groups, if the
relevant profiling is carried out especially
by means of successful customer loyalty
programmes. In general, the objective will
be to use and communicate the "endog-
enous potential" in an intelligent and
future-oriented way.
25
26
MEGATREND
Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
Megatrends | Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
27
Megatrends | Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
Demographic change primarily describes the quantitative changes in the population. According to a UN estimation from 2010, the world’s population will grow from 7 billion to 8.3 billion people in the course of the next 20 years. In addition, the rising life expectancy will lead to an ageing of the population. Today, 760 mil-lion people on earth are older than 60 years. By the year 2030, that number will probably have almost doubled.
The demographic processes up to the year
2030 vary between individual regions —
in terms of the indicators of number of
inhabitants and births, life expectancy,
ageing of the population and immigration
or migration. For the developed coun-
tries, basically a population decrease with
simultaneous ageing of the population and
a correspondingly strong increase of the
number of people no longer working due to
their age are expected. For the developing
and emerging countries, population growth
with simultaneous regional agglomerations
of inhabitants is forecasted.
Development in Germany: absolute decline in population and more older peopleAccording to a population forecast by the
Bertelsmann Foundation from 2011, the
number of people living in Germany will
have reduced from currently 80.2 million to
around 77 million inhabitants by the year
2030. The number of persons of a working
age between 20 and 65 years will probably
have decreased from currently around 50
million to 36-39 million people.
Aside from this absolute decline in popula-
tion, the age structure will also change
significantly. In 2030, every other person
will be older than 49 years (in 2009 by
comparison, this so-called median age
was 44 years). The age group from 19 to 24
years will have strongly decreased by 2030,
and thus also the potential new blood for
companies and employers. Contrary to all
Lifelong learning becomes a necessity, just as the increasingly location-independent social acti-vation of people. In your point of view, which are the challenges the persons concerned are facing in this respect?
"Since more and more mobile
phones with internet access are
increasingly common, making
knowledge accessible at any time
at almost any place of the world,
young and older people need to
reconsider their former education
habits."
younger age groups, the age groups of re-
tired persons will exclusively show growth.
The general ageing of the population is
especially obvious regarding the develop-
ment of the number of people that are over
80 years old.
Global perspective: growing middle class — more potential participants in events
Thanks to the growing middle class in nu-
merous countries of the world, the event
industry will have to familiarise itself with
this new target group and thus can expect
a correspondingly high potential of new at-
tendees of meetings and conventions.
Feminisation of society
According to the work "On the Process
of Civilisation" (1939) by well-known
Guido Brombach, Head of CompetenceCentre Digital Communications,Education and Media of the GermanTrade Union Confederation, Hattingen
•
28
Megatrends | Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
•
•
German sociologist Norbert Elias, a
refinement of customs and manners
has been observed for centuries. Physi-
cal strength and other characteristics
defined as being "masculine" lose
in relevance — not least due to the
economic and technological change.
The transition to a knowledge society
leads to marked changes in qualifica-
tion profiles and job markets: char-
acteristics that are considered to be
rather "feminine", such as team spirit,
social competence and multitasking
skills, grow in importance. The growing
portion of women with Abitur (school
leaving examination qualifying for uni-
versity admission; 56 per cent in 2008)
and with university degree (52.9 per
cent in 2008) is an indicator for the rise
in importance of women in all areas of
society (source: German Federal Statis-
tics Office 2012).
Dr. Ulrike Regele, Head of the Department for Trade and Tourism, The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag, DIHK e.V.)
In the future, further diversi-fication can be expected for meetings and conventions as well. Feminisation, interna-tional attendees and acces-sibility are key words for the next decades. What would be the best response by the industry, what measures would make sense?
"The audience is becoming more and
more heterogeneous and international.
Here it will make sense to enhance
the qualifications in some areas, with
regard to language skills or adequate
conduct towards guests from other
cultures, for example. Internships in
foreign countries are one possibility
of how to prepare employees for such
challenges — and they are also offered
for apprentices by the way. Cross-
cultural training sessions, workshops on
intercultural skills are other options the
providers can choose."
Individualisation and diversity
In general, an "individualisation" (Beck/
Beck-Gernsheim 1994) has been observed
for decades, which includes "de-tradi-
tionalisation" in particular. People no
longer need to conform with traditions so
much and can live according to their indi-
vidual needs and beliefs. This leads to a
change in a number of thinking patterns
and role standards, and completely new
perceptions of life and lifestyles arise.
In total, the range of role variants is be-
coming wider ("diversity"). Globalisation
(particularly migration) and democratisa-
tion contribute to that change.
Feminisation and the change towards
diversity are quasi omnipresent in every-
day life. Multiculturality is obvious, and
fashion, appearance, ideals of beauty,
sexuality, language, music, and role mod-
els in films show wide variations.
In view of future generations, today’s
young people are already extremely
versatile. As estimated in youth studies,
"there are more than 600 persisting
youth cultures, so-called ‘artificial tribes’,
today — many of them invented by
industry of course — (…), and youths at
an age of 11-19 years pass through six to
eight of those cultures on average, often
belonging to two or three youth cultures
simultaneously. In general, young people
of the 21st century are true ‘sampling ge-
niuses’." (Klaus Farin: generation-kick.de
– Jugendsubkulturen heute. Munich 2001,
p. 206).
Aside from the numerous effects of
that change, the challenge arises not to
categorise individual persons too quickly
but perceive them with their whole and
special character, accept them and act
correspondingly. Attentiveness, mindful-
ness, self-reflection, and tolerance are
needed here, but cannot be offered by
everyone.
PEOPLE NO LONGER NEED TO CONFORM WITH TRADITIONS SO MUCH AND CAN LIVE ACCORDING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL NEEDS AND BELIEFS.
29
30
Demographic change will have a strong
impact on the meeting and conventions
industry — on the future availability of
staff and economic dynamics in Germany,
for example. The population development
implies especially strong restrictions with
regard to the availability of apprentices
and young professionals.
In the years up to 2030, demographic
change might affect the German meeting
and conventions industry in specialised
and innovation-dependent areas in
particular — and may have different ef-
fects in different regions. It is expected
that the number of qualified staff from
foreign countries employed here will
rise. This means that the industry as
an employer will need to identify the
regionally differing trends and challenges
already early and take them into account
in their decisions. This applies to design
and infrastructures within the buildings
but also to modernisation and layout
of workplaces. The range of education
and qualification offers will need to
be adapted accordingly as well or even
extended individually.
Preventive health management and life-
long learning will rise in importance with
regard to ageing staff and the activation
of currently not employed people for the
job market. Aside from the expected
challenges in the human resources area,
further aspects will need to be consid-
ered. The trend of single-child families,
for example, might lead to rising expecta-
tions and demands regarding events,
requiring more support and other services
— or an increased attentiveness towards
the attendees.
From the perspective of ageing custom-
ers, accessibility in a broader sense, i.e.
including visual and acoustic aspects,
will become an essential criterion for
attractiveness, comfort, and satisfac-
tion. The organisers and service providers
will have to show higher willingness as
well as the ability to respond to special
requirements and needs of visitors and
attendees or take them into account
already beforehand. From the changes
during the course of demographic devel-
opment, feminisation and the general
diversity of lifestyles results the demand
to take into account the individuality of
people and their needs in all situations
and any context. In the course of equal
opportunities / integration of women in
all areas of the job sector and public life,
changes have become obvious: there are
female heads of government, soldiers,
Conclusions
Megatrends | Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
•
In the course of time: meeting and convention attendees today and in 2030
Smartphone
Smart glasses Google Glass
In-ear phones
Daniel salaried, male, 42 years old,
married, two children, born in Germany, living in Cologne
Xiaomengself-employed, female,
58 years old, single, born in China,
living in New York
I
2013 2030
SmartphoneTablet PC
EarphonesCamera
USB stickPower supply units
Business cardsNote pad
PensDaily paper
ProgrammeAttendee card
ID cardCredit card
Railway cardFlight ticket
Car keysHotel card
Cash
The graphics are based on the development of megatrends and the results of the Delphi survey.
31
» Challenges » Markedly ageing population which stays active for a
longer time » Rise in importance of "female values" and skills due to
social and cultural developments » Perception of any person as an individual, applying
attentiveness, mindfulness, and tolerance » Changed motivations and aspirations of the younger
generation
» Measures » Early identification of regionally differing trends and
challenges » Specific layout of infrastructures in new buildings
and modernisations » Adequate layout of workplaces, age management,
and improvement of the employers’ attractiveness by internships also in foreign countries and qualification measures, for example
» Prevention of burnout by means of sabbaticals and suitable work-life balance
» Equipping locations for accessibility with walking frames, acoustic amplification
» Specific addressing by means of interactive convention formats
conductors, architects, etc. There are
allocations of quotas and infrastructural
changes. Demographic change requires
similar adjustments for older people, for
example. The same applies for people
with disabilities, special needs or skills
(accessibility, sign language in some TV
programmes). Moreover, the complex
integration processes for immigrants are
being developed. Those topics will prob-
ably be an important challenge for the
organisation of events even beyond the
year 2030.
PREVENTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT AND LIFELONG LEARNING WILL RISE IN IMPORTANCE WITH REGARD TO AGEING STAFF AND THE ACTIVATION OF CURRENTLY NOT EMPLOYED PEOPLE FOR THE JOB MARKET.
Megatrends | Demographic change, feminisation and diversity
32
MEGATREND
Technology in work and life
Megatrends | Technology
33
Megatrends | Technology
Modern technologies, especially in the information and communication areas, will further rapidly change the living and working environments of people up to the year 2030. Numer-ous devices and products are increas-ingly equipped with embedded logical components constantly enhancing their range of functions. The hidden systems consist of not much more than tiny processors, some memory and software. They have been inte-grated in more and more components of building automation as well as sound, light and stage technology, but also in mobile end devices, routers and displays.
At the same time, increasing networking
of those systems and devices both among
each other and in local networks, mobile
networks and the Internet can be observed.
Any objects become identifiable, can be
localised and correlated with each other.
They may be passive, just allowing identifi-
cation, or process information themselves
and respond actively to changes. Objects of
daily life become "smart objects" which are
linked, respond actively to their environment
and interact with their users. Whether within
a meeting room or on different continents:
information about the most different objects
can be linked, exchanged and processed.
Given the constant further development and
distribution of technologies in economy and
society, the relationship between man and
technology will have significantly changed
by 2030. The area of interaction between
man and technology and its shaping with
regard to various kinds of usage is of sig-
nificant importance here. Whether through
touch, movement or language — innovative,
so-called "natural" man-machine interfaces
allow more and more novel forms of interac-
tion and communication.
INNOVATIVE, SO-CALLED "NATURAL" MAN-MACHINE INTERFACES ALLOW MORE AND MORE NOVEL FORMS OF INTERACTION AND COMMUNICATION.
•
Man-machine interfaces
Interface
Motor activity
Sensor system
Example for usage:At the beginning of the first break of an event, an attendee asks his smartphone (interface) with voice recognition: “Where ist the co�ee station where my colleagues are waiting?”. On an interactive map, his own position and the colleagues’ position are displayed.
34
Megatrends | Technology
"Basically we observe a trend towards more and more complex customer demands. Customers desire multi-zone acoustic irradiation with sophisticated recordings, lighting of sceneries accord-ing to TV standard to allow camera use, and state-of-the-art lighting technol-ogy. In the media technology area, the different methods are merged in a playful way. Live camera broadcasts are displayed together with PowerPoint presentations and films, for example, on unformatted and partly three-dimen-sional objects by means of projection or LED. The overall impression is comple-mented by means of teleprompting, voting and videoconference technology. Technology is rapidly developing further, becomes more affordable and easier to handle. Based on our experience, customer expectations and thus also the requirements for event locations have increased in the past years. If a location is not able to meet a requirement due to technological development — also with regard to the existing infrastruc-ture (e.g. ceiling height and load bearing capability) — another location is chosen. This is the reason why the organisers should involve local technology providers with adequate qualifications from the beginning in order to jointly advise the customers and to be able to realise the intended projects. When planning new locations or modernising existing ones it is absolutely necessary that experienced companies be incorporated, in addition to classic architects, to take into consid-eration meaningful technology require-ments early on at the concept stage.
The above-mentioned rapid develop-ment of technology will have decisively changed meetings, conventions and events by the year 2030. Here primar-ily the following technologies come to mind:
» Daylight-compatible display screens (LED and seemless displays) are
How will the requirements for service providers and event centres change in the context of evolving event technology?
Christian Sommer, Cofounder and Managing Partner of AMBION GmbH
becoming more affordable. The same is true of 3D mapping as projection method to three-dimensional objects. This method can be used to present interior views and functional methods of new products, for example. » Touch-sensitive displays and projec-tions generate attentiveness and interaction between the speaker and his audience. » Streaming and webcasts transport the event to any place. Votings, questions and tweets are contributed by partici-pants in real time independent of their individual locations.
In my opinion, mobile device solutions will have the greatest impact on meet-ings and conventions, however. As a kind of "reply channel", they are the logical further development of stream-ing and webcasts providing a method to participate in and contribute to an event remotely. Independent of their location and in real time, the participants can in-fluence the event via votings, questions and tweets.
"Our vision is that a smartphone will provide all information, documents, audio and video data for an event."
Software is individually adapted to the relevant event, giving each participant access via smartphone to information (agenda, lecture contents, speakers), methods of interaction (e.g. voting or Q&A), and communication in the form of Tweet walls and other social media channels. These are only some functions which, in a paperless way and constantly updated by a server, enhance the sus-tainable and measurable result rate of a meeting. Theoretically, events at vari-ous locations of the world may also be connected via the web in this way. The vision is that our smartphone provides all information, documents, audio and
video data for an event. Recurring events are stored there, closed chats and links as well as exchange of contact information between partici-pants are possible. During meetings, participants can be searched for, optionally also by their properties such as home town or hobbies. Via "handshake", a specifically developed method for exchanging contact data, participants may build networks. It makes sense, however, to use mobile devices for a limited time only and establish "mobile-device-free" zones where participants can communicate in person. Sensitive topics of such kind of networking are certainly data protection requirements and the the-oretical possibility of user behaviour being tracked. The systems must respect the participants’ privacy. It is routine for us, for example, to delete all data after an event. In addition, communication data are transmitted encrypted with a code which can be decrypted only by other participants in the convention.
Also very exciting and literally pathbreaking: interactive guiding systems lead through trade fairs and exhibitions — the topic of augmented reality being a promising task for the future."
35
Privacy and data protectionTechnology has a large impact not only on
the development of all economic sectors
but also on broad parts of society and
lifestyle. Novel technologies and their
linking open up many possibilities of
simplifying existing processes in our daily
professional and private life or gener-
ating new options. At the same time,
those developments raise the need for a
general discussion with regard to the role
of publicity and privacy, data protection
and security, for example. The increasing
"dislimitation" between professional and
private life will certainly become a topic in
this context.
Event centres need to develop answers to the questions as to how to operate the rapidly developing and constantly changing applications and gadgets and to use tech-nology to meet the growing requirements of event or-ganisers and attendees on site. Which concrete tech-nological developments do you consider must-haves for the year 2030?
Stefan Rief, Head of Competence Center Workspace Innovation Fraunhofer IAO
•
•
Megatrends | Technology
"In the future, the direct method of teaching educational contents will be
increasingly replaced by open learning processes. This will require technologies
playing an essential role for intuitive navigation through the relevant event,
the convention centre and the immediate environment. Real-time information
about "agglomerations of know-how", that is clusters of persons at interest-
ing discussion sites, or similar services can help to give events spontaneity and
make them up to date."
The Internet of Things and Services...Intelligent linking of objects and services via the Internet
Building Environment
ParticipantsOrganisers
Service providers
Event Mobility
Programme status display, programme
information, display of vacant seats, list of
attendees in the room, catering (place, o�er,
waiting times), position of “friends”, ...
Energy consumption, air conditioning data,
oxygen contents, room plan, retreating rooms
status, safety information, WC
facilities status, ...
Options for leasure activities according to individual interests,
hotel capacities, weather forecast, services nearby, ...
Parking status display, travel options (flight,
railway, regional public transport, etc.), taxi
station status, ...
36
In the course of the evolution of technology
in work and life, the use of state-of-the-art
technology in meeting and convention cen-
tres is progressing as well. Sensors, control
elements and other technical units in the
building are being linked and automated. The
purpose is to increase comfort and security
while at the same time reducing energy con-
sumption. Against the background of the de-
mographic development, the needs of older
people should be considered in an increasing
way. Aside from the relevant construction
measures, automation of the building and its
components plays a significant role. In order
to achieve a useful degree of automation,
as many end devices as possible need to be
linked via a central control unit.
In the area of event technology, more
and more specific technology is used: 3D,
interactive apps, etc. Rendering formerly
passive media interactive, by means of QR
codes or RFID chips for example, increasingly
facilitates the retrieval of digital contents on
Will events be held only in virtual rooms in the year 2030?
"No, but the event landscape will further
develop and change during the next 17
years. An essential aspect for participat-
ing in an event is the availability of the
resources needed by the participants
— time and money. There will still be
events of different sizes where direct
contact to other people and the common
experience are in the focus. Meetings
conducted using audio- or videoconfer-
encing already today will account for a
markedly larger part of events as the
use of virtual reality tools allows for a
significantly lower consumption of the
participants’ resources."
In your opinion, how realistic is the assumption that inter-active applications in con-nection with 3D projections will be developed and used by default at meetings and conventions, and could you describe what the event in-dustry expects the key word of "virtual reality" to mean in the future?
"Area-wide usage of technology by the
population also depends on the layout
of the man-machine interface and on
the costs for end devices and software.
When looking at the previous develop-
ment in the field of virtual reality, it
may be anticipated that correspond-
ing visualisation methods will become
increasingly better affordable and
better with regard to technological
quality such that they will penetrate
further into everyday life, becoming
also part of meetings and conventions.
A head-mounted display by Oculus
Rift, for example, costs around 300
euros today, while a few years ago one
would have paid a five-digit amount
for it. 3D display technology for which
glasses are no longer needed (like
Nintendo 3DS) and which can be clearly
viewed from several angles will become
common and decisively influence our
handling of available information. The
same applies to augmented-reality
systems like Google Glasses. This is the
reason why those technologies will be
increasingly used for the provision of
information and as multilateral means
of communication. In compliance with
data protection laws and personal
rights of the participants, it will be
possible to gear meetings and conven-
tions further towards the attendees’
needs such that every attendee will be
able to use his or her time on site more
efficiently and the organisers can adapt
their services better to the customers’
requirements."
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg, Managing Director of the Institute of Information Management in Me-chanical Engineering (IMA) at the RWTH Aachen University
Megatrends | Technology
• Conclusions
37
» Challenges » Changes to the living and working environments due to
complex technologies leading to still growing require-ments with regard to education and skill building
» Questions emerging with respect to ethical rights in view of the extended range of functions and increasing autonomy of objects, devices, and products
» Increasing merging of virtual and physical worlds: objects become identifiable, can be localised and cor-related with each other
» Stronger interlinkage of the systems, in local net-works, mobile networks and on the Internet, raising questions of security and data protection when han-dling the growing volume of data
» Measures » Increasing security and comfort and reducing the con-
sumption of resources by automating event centres and building networks within the building, e.g. using sensors, actuators, and control elements
» Analysis of the need of older people and other groups of participants (demand cluster) with regard to possible technical support potentials
» "Novel way of constructing" based on a good exchange of information between all persons involved in planning and implementation as well as on current technological developments
» Closer linkage of the marketing to social media measures and live communication
» Technology scouting for an early identifiation of relevant technological trends
site at meetings and conventions. Provided
that corresponding investment budgets exist,
holographic display and storage options at
the event centres allow the creation of entire
digital landscapes where attendees and
speakers can immerse in using their digital al-
ter ego — the avatar. For some event formats,
new translation technologies will offer rel-
evant solutions. In the area of man-machine
interfaces, new adaptive, context-dependent
options of merging language, touch, and
gesture control based on environment sensor
systems are emerging. The language inter-
face is adapted to the relevant social environ-
ment of the user: using smartphones to make
or receive calls during meetings, conventions
or conferences, for example, is prevented by
technical means to avoid unnecessary noise
and disturbances for the other participants.
In addition, more and more people possess
powerful mobile end devices and are always
linked with each other via ever new social
media channels. Merchandising their own
event series, particularly using social media
measures and live communication, becomes
more and more important for organisers in
the meeting and conventions industry. The
highly dynamic development of technology
leads to ever new and growing requirements
of the working environment which can only be
mastered by well-qualified staff. Therefore,
a prerequisite for ensuring economic success
and progress is to constantly adapt and de-
velop the educational and training system in
the meeting and conventions industry.
MERCHANDISING THEIR OWN EVENT SERIES USING SOCIAL MEDIA MEASURES AND LIVE COMMUNICATION BECOMES MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT FOR ORGANISERS IN THE MEETING AND CONVENTIONS INDUSTRY.
Megatrends | Technology
38
MEGATREND
Sustainable development
Megatrends | Sustainable Development
39
Megatrends | Sustainable development
Numerous phenomena and indicators point to the fact that the general prin-ciple of "sustainable development" will establish itself as mainstream and will have developed further and become a matter of course by the year 2030.
Within some decades, the priority of sus-
tainable procedures will have become estab-
lished all over the world including countries
initially not having played a leading role in
this field.
However, this approach to future challenges
based on the principles of sustainability
is very ambitious and only possible due
to huge efforts, targeted innovation and
eventually a cultural change that requires
a change of thought patterns and habitual
behaviours.
Social change opens up new opportunities
According to relevant studies, huge efforts
will be made in order to implement sustain-
able standards in the course of the next
decades. Changes implying approaches to
future design and governance forms as well
as sustainable lifestyles can already be seen
today. These are, for example, intensi-
fied environmental standards and related
ratings, efficiency strategies and business
models, new procedures of civic involvement
and forms of applied e-democracy, local
projects that are internationally linked at the
same time, new administrative panels and
design processes. As of recently, modern and
complex transformation strategies as well
as comprising control concepts effective on
several levels are being discussed. •
DUE TO STRONG EFFORTS, SUSTAINABLE STANDARDS WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED ALL OVER THE WORLD BY 2030.
The number of service providers with a sustainability management system is rising.
Organisers prefer service providers with certification.
27,4%
2011
37,7%
2012
39,7%
2013 2030
33,3%
44,1%
SOU
RCE
: MEE
TIN
G A
ND
EV
ENTB
AR
OM
ETER
201
3
40
Megatrends | Sustainable development
"UNFCCC understands that a “sustain-
able event is one designed, organ-
ized and implemented in a way that
minimizes potential negative impacts
and leaves a beneficial legacy for the
host community and all involved”. This
definition has been taken from the
UNEP Sustainable Events Guide, which
was developed with contribution by the
UNFCCC secretariat and other sister UN
agencies).
UN Climate Change sessions are among
the largest conferences worldwide, and
the biggest annual events organized in the
UN system. The UNFCCC secretariat has
always strived to minimize the negative
impact (especially on people, communi-
ties and natural resources) of the sessions
it organizes. The scale and ambition of
sustainability actions at UNFCCC confer-
ences crucially depend on the respec-
tive host country’s commitment and
availability of resources as well as the
available infrastructure. The secretariat
actively offers advice and experience
from past conferences and encourages
host countries to consider and address
sustainability aspects when preparing for
the event. Consequently, since 2005 host
governments for UNFCCC sessions have
increasingly taken steps to reduce the
local greenhouse gas emissions resulting
from these events .
In addition to actions carried out by the
host country, the secretariat routinely im-
plements the following measures in order
to reduce the carbon footprint of UNFCCC
conferences:
» Reducing paper usage and wastage,
with detailed reporting of relevant
statistics. For instance, print runs
for official documents are minimized
while the Daily Programme is made
available in electronic form only.
Double-sided printing and print-on-de-
mand of a particular document or part
of it is a service that is systematically
offered to avoid unnecessary printing.
» The distribution of information mate-
rial in hardcopy form is extremely
limited; instead the use of electronic
media, such as USB flash drives and
CD-ROMs, is encouraged, bearing
in mind that most delegates carry
laptops and smart phones. To further
facilitate access, the posting of PDF
documents on the UNFCCC website
and the use of Quick Response codes
are actively promoted.
» Reducing and limiting the size and
weight of shipments for side events,
exhibits as well as for materials for UN
staff servicing the conferences.
» Procuring office supplies locally.
» The UNFCCC secretariat routinely
purchases certified emission reduction
credits and cancels an amount equiva-
lent to its overall carbon footprint,
thereby offsetting its greenhouse gas
emissions including those caused by
travel of staff and funded participants
to UNFCCC conferences.
» Finally, the active communication of
potential benefits of organizing sus-
Sustainable Development: Today sustainability is a
significant concern for the meetings and events industry as
sustainable meetings can register a strong growth within
the market. Which steps do you take to make clear you are
serious about it?Salwa Dallalah, Coordinator Conference Affairs Services, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC secretariat
Sustainability has now grown to become a principle of planning UNFCCC sessions which greatly helps to minimize potentially negative impacts
41
"The central element in a social contract
on transformation is the constitutive
state with enhanced participation in the
multi-level system of global co-opera-
tion. It communicates two aspects often
conceived in a separate or contrary way:
the strengthening of the state actively
setting and clarifying priorities (for in-
stance with bonus-malus solutions) on
the one hand, and improved voting and
participation opportunities and empow-
erment of citizens (WBGU 2011) on the
other.
The foreseeable social change is under-
pinned by current socio-scientific theo-
ries on society and ideas, above all the
"reflexive modernisation" or the "second
modern age" (Beck/Bonß 2001).
Rationality and progress reach their lim-
its. Leading ideas are being scrutinised
more critically. Here, a high degree of
tolerance will be required in the future in
order to be able to distinguish between
the real sustainable offers and the mere-
ly allegedly sustainable products.
•
•
1) As a good practice, the following reports from COP 15/CMP 5 in Denmark are available online: http://www.e-pages.dk/visitdenmark/469/ (sustainability report) and http://www.e-pages.dk/visitdenmark/472 (carbon footprint report). Other host countries of past UNFCCC conferences have also published information on their sustainability efforts; for instance the Green Event Guideline produced by South Africa, host of COP 17/CMP 7 (see http://www.cop17-cmp7durban.com/downloads/news/Green-Event-Guideline-Summa-ry-2011.pdf). Qatar, the host of the most recent UNFCCC conference, is currently working on a carbon footprint report for COP 18/CMP 8.
tainable events, coupled with the reporting of the results
achieved, is also an integral part of the secretariat’s sus-
tainability strategy and helps to maximize the transpar-
ency of the UNFCCC process.
Sustainability has now grown to become a principle of
planning UNFCCC sessions which greatly helps to minimize
potentially negative impacts but also, given the large number
of stakeholders involved, to concretely influence change by
leaving a positive legacy and inspiring those involved to work
and live more sustainably."
Megatrends | Sustainable development
42
Megatrends | Nachhaltige Entwicklung
The three-pillar model of sustainable development
The three pillars of sustainability are described as follows by the study commission of the Deutsche Bundestag “Protection of human beings and environment”:
Ecological sustainability is based mainly on the original thought not to exploit nature ruthlessly. A lifestyle that uses natural living resources only to an extent that can be regenerated again would be ecologically sustainable.
Economical sustainability means that a society should not live beyond its means since this will necessarily result in losses to the generations to come. In general, a way of economic activity will be conside-red sustainable, if it can be carried out on a constant basis.
Social sustainability of a state or society should be organised in a way that the social tensions are kept in reasonable limits and conflicts do not escalate but can be settled in a civil manner.
The three-pillar model of sustainable development
The three pillars of sustainability are described as follows by the study commission of the Deutsche Bundestag “Protection of human beings and environment”:
Ecological sustainability is based mainly on the original thought not to exploit nature ruthlessly. A lifestyle that uses natural living resources only to an extent that can be regenerated again would be ecologically sustainable.
Economical sustainability means that a society should not live beyond its means since this will necessarily result in losses to the generations to come. In general, a way of economic activity will be conside-red sustainable, if it can be carried out on a constant basis.
Social sustainability of a state or society should be organised in a way that the social tensions are kept in reasonable limits and conflicts do not escalate but can be settled in a civil manner.
43
» Challenges » More stringent environmental and social standards
and associated quality criteria, ratings and labels
» Decentralisation of events
» Reduction of green washing by means of transparency
and increased attentiveness
» Persistent positioning of sustainability as a socially
relevant topic in all areas of living
» Measures » Generation of new business models based on sustain-
ability principles within the entire range of services
» Manifestation of internationally accepted quality
criteria for event buildings and event management,
for example, as a guidance when choosing destina-
tions and events
» Stronger regional focus for event locations
» More transparent presentation of sustainable activi-
ties in the area of ecology, economy and social affairs
» Constant further education and training
ConclusionsLike the market share of organic food
and fair trade products has immensely
increased in many societies, "sustainable
meetings" will be a growing market seg-
ment until 2030.
More and more customers expect events
offering an entire range of services in line
with principles of sustainability and pro-
viding or even guaranteeing correspond-
ing quality. As customers consider those
principles important, they are willing to
accept moderately higher prices in return.
Government and politicians as well as
players in the industry themselves sup-
port the matter of sustainability in the
meeting and conventions industry mainly
by setting internationally accepted qual-
ity criteria. These apply to event buildings
(comparable to the current sustain-
ability certificate by the DGNB - German
Sustainable Building Council) and the
event management, for example. Using
such standards and related certificates as
a guidance, customers can better select
destinations and events.
In terms of business economics, invest-
ments in the area of energy efficiency
aiming at the "plus energy building" will
still be relevant in the year 2030. Here,
too, internationally comparative rankings
and ratings of numerous other sustain-
ability parameters are of practical impor-
tance which can easily be adjusted in line
with the customers’ needs by means of
cloud computing. Therefore, participants
can have the energy consumption of
individual components in various build-
ings estimated and choose the events to
participate in based on this information.
In connection with the "sustainability"
scale, locations have become more
regionally based — not least due to
keen economic calculation. To meet the
requirement of international linkage,
technologically supported decentralised
event concepts can simultaneously reach
more participants in various places all
over the world.
As part of sustainable development, effi-
ciency strategies and selective measures
will result in approaches to sustainably
intelligent mobility concepts.
Megatrends | Sustainable development
•
44
MEGATREND
Mobility of the future
Megatrends | Mobility
45
Megatrends | Mobility
A high degree of mobility is a pri-mary feature of a modern society. But the journeys to make and the distances to span — including those to participate in meetings and con-ventions — tend to become longer. Thus the efforts with regard to material and energy are constantly growing. In addition, the expecta-tions towards mobility are in-creasing: flexibility and individual availability are desired.
Mobility requires a lot of energy. In
particular the energy demand of traffic
continues to rise globally. In 1950, the
number of cars and lorries was around
70 million worldwide, by the end of 2012
it was more than one billion. Due to its
high energy density, crude oil is pres-
ently used as an energy source in over
90 percent of all applications. For some
years, the awareness has been growing
that the crude oil reserves are limited.
While they are running short, the world-
wide demand is increasing. Consumers
experience the consequences in the
form of rising energy prices (vzbv 2012).
Motorisation of the world population
and the volume of traffic will continue
to grow until 2030. The central drivers
of this development are the worldwide
population growth and rising incomes
in numerous regions of the world. The
Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) is expecting a
very dynamic development of the num-
ber of cars in China, India, Russia, Brazil,
and Indonesia. For these countries, the
number of cars is predicted to grow by
438 million until 2030. By 2030, the
car density would correspondingly have
multiplied threefold in India, fourfold in
Indonesia and tenfold in China.
Mobility of the future: multimodal, driven by co-operation and efficientMobility in the year 2030 will be multi-
modal, driven by co-operation and
efficient (IFK/AIM 2012). Multimodality
means the changing usage of means of
transportation by a person over a certain
period of time. It should allow users
comfortable, resource-optimised and
environmentally friendly locomotion.
Traffic problems such as traffic bottle-
necks should be minimised, the efficient
utilisation of existing resources and
infrastructure should be in the centre
of interest. A comprehensive platform
should allow coordinated route and tariff
planning, efficient selection of offers as
well as integrated and secure payment
from one source. In this overall system,
services for the mobility of all user
groups are offered. Traditional means of
transportation in motorised private traf-
fic (car, moped, motorbike, for example)
are included just like those of the local
public transport system, railway, aero-
planes, etc. However, innovative (mobil-
ity) services or technologies such as car
sharing, lifts, hired bicycles, segways, or
electric vehicles are also included.
Mobile in a clever way
Another forecast deals with the ration-
alisation of mobility. In the scientists’
opinion, mobility clusters able to offer
services from one source will increas-
ingly develop. Such service providers that
emerged from "mega co-operations"
will be able to provide services that will
involve both the mobility and infrastruc-
ture providers and the public sector. •
There are many ideas for mobility of the future. What are the factors and innovations that will shape the future in your opinion?"Aside from a central location and the
availability of work force, a good connection
and reachability, i.e. the existing mobility
options, are significant factors when choosing
the location of event centres. However, the
availability of fully integrated multimodal travel
chains allowing users ‘seamless’ mobility using
various carriers in a quick and comfortable way
from any place will also be one of the significant
future innovations."
Dr. Stefan Walter, Managing Director, House of Logistics & Mobility (HOLM) GmbH
46
Megatrends | Mobility
"In the meeting and conventions industry, too, the acceptance of mobility services that do not contribute to the mitigation of the climate change will decrease constantly. However, locomo-tion independent of crude oil that does not produce carbon dioxide is no dream of the future: millions of DB customers including travellers holding event tickets travel in the long-distance trains with 100 per cent green power. Deutsche Bahn will further expand their lead in terms of their sustainable strategy ‘DB 2020’. By 2020, they want to have reduced their specific carbon emissions by 20 per cent compared to the year 2006 — that is for the entire transport system of people and goods on rail, on the road, in the air, and on the water. By 2050, at the latest, the entire rail traffic should be completely free of CO2 emissions.
Moreover, mobility for event participants will become easier due to the increasing use of smartphones and mobile Internet.
Searching and linking means of transportation, book-ing and paying as well as cleverly organising alterna-tive itineraries in real-time is already possible today and should become even easier in the future. The mobility trend of the future clearly points into the direction of networked mobil-ity. Those who want to significantly shape the mobility market of the future have to convince customers by means of cleverly linked mobility services. And here Deutsche Bahn already have a leading edge due to their interconnected services along the entire mobility chain, and they want to further build on this position."
If we want to remain in motion, we need to come up with ideas. Find fuel alternatives to the absolutely dominant "crude oil". Develop concepts as to how resources and infrastructure can be used as efficiently as possible. What ideas and concrete proposals can we expect from you?Ulrich Homburg, Member of the Management Board of DB Mobility Logistics AG responsible for Passenger Transport
Multimodality. The ideal means of transportation is available anytime, anywhere.Individual, e�cient, flexible.
Constantly updated travel data and automatic adjustment in case of obstructions and plan variances
Ideal itinerary at query time All travel options
47
Megatrends | Mobility
• ConclusionsMobility costs for the journey to and
from the event location are a particularly
relevant factor for all participants of
meetings and conventions. This becomes
particularly obvious when costs are rising.
However, duration and comfort of the
journey to the venues also count among
the decisive selection criteria for meet-
ings and conventions. Here, user-friendly
options for switching between the vari-
ous means of mobility become particu-
larly important and crucial.
Independent orientation during the
journey as well as "navigation" at the
event location is strongly supported by
technological means, mobile devices and
user-friendly applications. This makes
quick and short-term selection from
various mobility options easier, and
adaption to the individually suitable and
preferred combinations is possible. Since
still higher customer expectations with
regard to comfort and service should be
anticipated, differentiated service offers
need to be created here, too, that will
be appropriate for the various target
groups and their economic possibilities.
The development of such multimodal
and forward-looking mobility systems
also requires considerable efforts of co-
operation between different players with
diverging interests in addition to financial
and time resources.
It will be important to providers and
event planners to actively deal with
the topic of mobility and to define its
position within the multimodal mobility
chain.
» Challenges » Rising expectations towards mobile services with
regard to flexibility, individuality and permanent avail-
ability
» Increasing mobility and travel expenses due to the
discrepancy between supply and demand in energy
consumption
» Reduction of the consumption of material and energy
of future mobility services
» Consideration of health- and age-related restrictions as
older people can participate longer in mobile life
» Measures » Facilitation of the journey to and from event locations
using technological means and mobile devices as well
as multimodal concepts
» Positioning of event providers and planners as well
as other service providers as active players within the
multimodal mobility chain and development of suit-
able strategies
» Creation of a balance between global requirements
and individual mobility needs meeting the criteria of
sustainability
» Offering tools for optimal planning and configuration
of the journey to and from the event location and
integration of services of mobility service partners
» Strengthening of quality standards for mobility prod-
ucts and services in Europe and internationally
DURATION AND COMFORT OF THE JOURNEY TO EVENT LOCA-TIONS COUNT AMONG THE CRUCIAL SELECTION CRITERIA FOR MEETINGS AND CONVENTIONS.
48
MEGATREND
Safety
Megatrends | Safety
49
Megatrends | Safety
In modern societies, new forms of prevention and protection will have developed by 2030. Safety in a broad sense (both in the sense of "safety" and of "security") has several dimen-sions. This section shall emphasise that complex and highly technologi-cal societies react in a particularly sensitive way to disturbances, such as power outages or impairment of other supply systems and infrastruc-tures.
This sensitivity results from the enor-
mous complexity of highly developed
systems depending on the precise func-
tioning of countless interacting factors.
Electrically operated devices have almost
completely penetrated the production
areas as well as life and work environ-
ments of modern societies with high
technological standards.
Impact of climate change on safety
If climate change progresses to the same
extent as before — as predicted by the
IPCC — and extreme weather events occur
more often and intensify, this will have an
impact on infrastructures and the normal
flow of many processes in daily life and
the economy.
The challenge of data security
A significant aspect here will be data se-
curity when cloud computing and the In-
ternet of Things further extend. Sporadic
or constant hacking or even low-intensity
cyberwars as well as spy activities by
various players may lead to significant
impairment in the areas of communica-
tion, payment and mobility especially for
the meeting and conventions industry.
Aside from direct effects such as targeted
disruption of specific events, aspects of
safety may influence the willingness to
organise and participate in events. •
c12,5%by 2019
33,3%by 2024
When?
12%
high
25%
medium
25%
low
38%
don’t know / n.s.
12,5%by 2030
4,2%after 2030
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:“In event organisation, multi-biometric systems are used, combining various biometric methods.”
50
Megatrends | Safety
Event 2.0 – About the inconveniences of data processing
"Today, many attendees to events expect
an IT offer allowing at least low-barrier
internet access, and the choice among
several connection options via wired
(fast!) or wireless devices (convenient!).
Freely available USB sticks or possibilities
to print information are also appreciated.
If personalised information such as the
choice for lunch, the feedback sheets
with prize draw, or the convenient order-
ing option of materials via a conference
intranet are also available, the partici-
pants truly feel at home in the 21st cen-
tury — including the analysis regarding
"Who with whom" on the Facebook page
the next morning.
But all that has also its drawbacks: a
long track of personal data which is not
restricted to individual visitors but also
includes any kind of relationships with
other people before, during and after the
event; from customers and suppliers,
partners and up to friends. Companies
worrying about industrial espionage
or facilities processing patient data,
which need to be especially protected, or
emphasising the aspect of "trust" in their
business should be equally concerned
about protection of the virtual person
represented by their data as about
physical protection in large gatherings of
people.
In this context, a lot of provisions have
to be complied with, the consequences
of which sensibly depend on the setup
of the IT environment chosen by the or-
ganiser beforehand: is the WLAN open or
closed, do persons have to register, or are
login data the same for all users? Were
USB sticks loaded with data and checked
for viruses prior to the event? Will the
disk storage of the modern printers be
securely deleted at the end of the day,
or is it possible to repeat all printouts
and use them without the corresponding
authorisation? Will the data from the
conference intranet be processed accord-
ing to the provisions of the (German)
data protection law? Did all participants
receive information on the use of their
personal data? Where will the potentially
embarrassing photos from the confer-
ence party show up: in Facebook? In the
organiser’s area of responsibility?
The list of questions in the run-up to a
modern IT-aided event is long. The con-
sequences are many. The meeting of all
requirements is called "compliance". The
concrete measures for implementation
are summarised as "governance". Those
two buzzwords have long been hard real-
ity in Germany, as insurers and financing
institutions have silently built a second
line of defence when it is about having
to settle or finance damages in this area
where claims are still rarely asserted.
The liability trap for organisers now also
snaps shut in the area of IT, while they
already feel sufficiently stressed by the
topics of physical fire protection and
escape paths.
How should the matter be handled?
The most important term is "state of
the art". That state of the art has to be
observed and can be insured. That is:
establish an encoded WLAN, have a data
protection officer review the contracts
and agreements and make spot checks
every half year. Buy printers without a
hard disk. Have USB sticks checked for
viruses and obtain permission for storing
personal data already during the regis-
tration process of participants.
What goes beyond is the current "state
of research": novel viruses still unknown,
software planted by malicious IT produc-
ers, or simply force majeure may be
accepted, if the limits are known, and
waited out without jeopardising the
existence of event organisers — how
severe and painful the consequences
might ever be.
People need social contact, and in the
year 2030 they will meet in person — but
that will be events integrated in the
constant virtual communication. That is
certain!"
Which risks will grow in the future due to the increasing technology level of events in respect of the trend to make available personal data, communication and interaction data to the attendees through web-based applications or wireless networks, and what can organisers and convention centres do to guarantee safety and security?
Dr. Johannes Loxen, CEO SerNet GmbH, Head of Steering Committee Software at the Federal Association for Information Technology, Telecommunication and New Media (BITKOM e. V.) and Member of Supervisory Board at DENIC
51
Megatrends | Sicherheit und Bedrohungen
b
52
"As the organiser of our own events
and participant in external events, the
topic of security is close to our heart.
This is primarily the personal, physical
safety of all our customers, partners,
employees and suppliers for an event,
but it also includes data security,
technical safety, financial safety, and
not least the perceived safety during
and after an event. And to answer part
of the question: unfortunately, there is
no guarantee.
Our security concept begins already
when selecting the destination.
Risk analysis: which potential dangers
are held by the region / city / venue
with regard to the political situa-
tion, physical safety (e.g. terrorism),
data protection (can we integrate the
network or operate it together with
a partner?), infrastructure (how safe
are airports, regional public transport,
roads, power supply?), and all event
locations: fair grounds, concert venue,
hotels, etc.)?
Several months prior to an event, a
team is constituted which is regularly
kept up to date and can react if re-
quired. This team covers the aspects of
Mobility (transportation and accommo-
dation), Communications (regular and
crisis communication), Legal and HR as
well as Risk & Compliance. Moreover
a crisis management group is estab-
lished which is prepared and briefed
for crisis, handling crisis management
together with the relevant representa-
tives from the venue, police and fire
brigade. The detailed security concept
is based on risk analysis and takes
operative measures: selection of local
service providers, entry and access con-
trols, security sweeps, briefings for the
staff, security hotline, registering of
material and inventory, medical staff,
contact to local authorities, etc.
As those measures are planned and
implemented according to a predefined
standard. But especially important to
us is: to make security palpable for the
participants so that they actually feel
safe. Before, during and after an event.
Many teams are working together to
this end.
Example Strike:
» Announcement and constant sta-
tus updates to the participants via
website, e-mail, and social media
using independent sources
» Planning several scenarios: how
can we bring participants to their
hotels, when taxis are on strike and
the main roads are blocked? Those
measures will then be communi-
cated as well
» Hotels: active addressing of partici-
pants with accommodation in ar-
eas on strike, offering them to help
with alternative accommodation
» F&B: keeping quantities of food
and beverages in stock, in case that
guests cannot leave the location
» Travel: support with flight booking
and booking changes, and contact-
ing airlines via the website and on
site
Here, the opportunity arises to guar-
antee the participants an acceptable
event experience during difficult
situations. With good information
management, the participants become
sensitised and will accept small incon-
veniences. By way of this approach, an
actual disadvantage is turned into an
advantage: with large events, we have
received a lot of positive feedback for
our information politics and measures
taken. We have reached our goal: satis-
fied and safe customers.
In the future, the importance of social
media for security will certainly in-
crease further. Presently, social media
already represent an important factor
— for both sides: critical situations or
places can be identified faster thanks
to monitoring via social media. Which
roads are affected by strike; is it safe
to have participants take a certain
route? On the other hand, they are
important for giving information to the
participants: please take care, check
your flight connections for cancella-
tions, etc."
Our industry already faces many risks, and they will get worse. How do you intend to win the participants' trust taking into account the rising need for security, and how will you guarantee that your guests feel safe?
Mathias Sondermann, Director Global Events, Programs, SAP AG
Megatrends | Safety
53
» Challenges » High sensitivity of complex systems in case of natural
disasters or extreme weather events which may lead to
power outages or impairment to other supply systems
and infrastructures with local negative impact
» Unauthorised access to data, development of
protective measures
» Measures » Enhancement of resilience by means of data protec-
tion measures, for example
» Adaptation and update of contingency plans
• ConclusionsIn the course of the next two decades,
Germany will face additional challenges.
This will lead to the development of
new forms of prevention and protection.
With the increasing reliance on technol-
ogy and global linkage, supply systems
and infrastructures become more prone
to interferences, while society becomes
more dependent on their smooth
functioning at the same time — climate
change with extreme weather events
occurring more frequently can cause
problems here.
A new dimension is created due to ac-
celerated digitalisation: the challenges
of data security rise in importance, since
sporadic or constant hacking or even
low-intensity cyberwars may cause
significant impairment especially to the
meeting and conventions industry.
The megatrend of "safety" represents
a particular challenge to the meeting
and conventions industry as the image
of a country or region is very important
to the industry. Whether fears arise will
depend on the perception and affected-
ness of the participants. And on the fact
whether more or less correct judge-
ment, followed by relevant prevention
and corrective measures occurred — and
whether the arising costs can be born.
For the industry, it is relevant that the
potential guests and participants get a
feeling of low risk, guaranteed safety
and high standards. Nevertheless — or
for this reason — the safety precautions
in the course of the event should not be
disruptive.
Although numerous safety issues affect
entire societies and need to be solved by
the competent institutions (in particular
with regard to travelling), the industry
can act in some concrete and immedi-
ately safety-relevant areas. These are the
areas of organisation and infrastructure,
building and logistics, communication
security, local environment, but also
preventive measures taken by event
organisers.
OUR COMPLEX, HIGHLY TECHNOLOGICAL AND NETWORKED SOCIETY REACTS IN A PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE WAY TO DISTURBANCES.
Megatrends | Safety
54
Scenarios
"WE NEED MODELS FOR THE FUTURE WHICH DO NOT PAINT GREY AND BLACK BUT FORMULATE REWARDING GOALS. I WOULD LIKE HUMAN SOCIETY TO TAKE A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TO THEIR PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE. INDIVIDUALS SHALL BE ENCOURAGED IN THEIR IMAGINATION TO MAKE EVEN SMALL CHANGES. THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE THE CONCEPT FOR THE FUTURE."
HANS-PETER DUERR, HEAD OF THE MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR PHYSICS UNTIL 1997
55
ScenariosScenarios illustrate possible future situations, painting more or less detailed and descriptive pictures of the
future. Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events created to draw attention to certain contexts and
necessary decisions. They are frequently used in various forms and in different areas and situations.
Scenarios
56
SCENARIO
ArchitectureWhile the benefits of the Internet have made communication and access to know-how independent of individual locations, meetings and conventions still have to rely on central, favourably located destinations — or on buildings with unique features.
Szenarien
57
Scenarios
First meeting and convention centres with a net zero-energy standard
By the year 2030, the rising cost of the fossil
fuels oil and gas has increased the pressure
to operate event centres with low energy
consumption or rely on renewable energy
sources exclusively. Ecologically oriented
engineers and architects have achieved tech-
nological progress even for such energetically
complex buildings like event centres. The
first meeting and convention centre newly
constructed in 2017 will be able to meet its
power, heating and air conditioning require-
ments using solely regenerative energies
(net zero-energy standard): It purchases
eco-power and biogas generated from waste
from a natural power dealer, and adds a so-
phisticated mix of decentrally self-generated
geothermal and photovoltaic energy and
an insulation based on cybernetic principles
where the exit of warmth is regulated at a
few "strategic" points of a building only. For
modernisations of existing buildings, this
net zero-energy standard has been reached
in the period from 2020 to 2024 for the first
time.
Event organisers demand sus-tainably built / modernised locations
Event organisers such as large corporations
listed on the stock exchange are looking
for event centres making efficient use of
renewable energies not only for aspects
of costs but they are also subject to the
pressure of institutional investors that
preferably consider sustainable enterprise
strategies as future-proof, low-risk and
profitable in the long term. The pressure
from various sectors of the money mar-
ket on large companies ensures that they
conduct their events mainly at sustainable
locations. Moreover, the megatrend of
SOCIAL TRENDS ENSURE THAT LARGE COMPANIES PREFER-ABLY CHOOSE SUS-TAINABLE LOCATIONS FOR THEIR EVENTS.
•
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:“Existing meeting and convention centres are brought to a net zero-energy standard during their energetic modernisation.”
33%
high
17%
medium
21%
low
29%
don’t know / n.s.
4,2%by 20144,2%
by 2030
16,7%by 2019
33,3%by 2024
4,2%
,7%2019
33 3%
When?
8,3%after 2030
58
FICTION
New orientation of meetings and conventions through special locations and wor-king styles in view of an increasing merge of private and professional life
2030 – Western renaissance: the second life of "MS Fortuna"
Professor Dr. Zhao Zhang, nano-
technology expert at the University
of Beijing, travelled to a symposium
in the Rhein-Ruhr region following an
invitation by organiser Armin Mueller.
Since the per-capita consumption of
fossil fuels has been strictly limited
in China as well, the professor has
decided to travel with Lufthansa which
is well-known for its modern and par-
ticularly energy-efficient fleet. In addi-
tion to his assistants, Zhang has taken
his family with him to make a private
journey through Germany directly after
the symposium.
At first, Professor Zhang fears that the
translation programme of his Data-
Watch had failed since the e-shuttle
driver takes the delegation to a plain
harbour . There is no congress centre
in sight, just a ship of older vintage
named "MS Fortuna" idling in the water .
But shortly afterwards, Armin Mueller
welcomes his guests and asks them
to come aboard . Zhang’s assistants
are excited about the original location
and admire the simple and functional
furnishings as well as the state-of-the-
art presentation technology: "plug in
and ready to work!"Even before the ship
leaves the harbour, the first multina-
tional working group begins working .
The two junior scientists appreciate the
interdisciplinary style and readiness to
debate of the other participants, and
quickly find their top form .
Since Honk, the professor’s wife, is
responsible for social matters in the
province government, the organiser
arranged an additional programme for
which her employer was immediately
willing to grant her a few days of educa-
tional leave . While her son and daughter
are ideally looked after, she visits a
multi-generation project at a former
mining town and an industrial facility
later turned into a cultural centre . Given
the virtuously realised concepts for
second usage of buildings, Ms . Zhang
is not surprised that her husband holds
scientific lectures on a former excursion
boat .
The "MS Fortuna" docks several times
to take guests aboard: EU scientists
seize the opportunity to have a personal
talk with Professor Zhang, arriving
via train in an energy-efficient way .
Moreover the professor conducts nego-
tiations with representatives of large
biotechnology companies interested in
his research project: a multi-permeable
membrane which is able to collect even
minimal quantities of energy from the
environment, store and convert them .
Professor Zhang also complied with
the organiser’s request to have one of
his assistants hold a guest lecture and
a one-day workshop at the Rhenanian
Friedrich Wilhelms University Bonn . He
will present new methods for the com-
munication of knowledge, and Professor
Zhang’s team is eager to know how the
European students will perform during
brainstorming in connection with blitz
chess and badminton . The organiser
can also build a good reputation with
this high-quality science camp among
the meeting participants of the next
generation . And not least, it still applies
even in 2030 that scientific careers are
driven by international lectures, suf-
ficient teaching experience and personal
contacts .
The Tai-Chi exercise carried out by visi-
tors in the Rheinaue park in the early
evening triggers amused giggles in
Professor Zhang and his postgraduates .
The hobby kickers or barbecue chefs,
however, are fascinating . Since Armin
Mueller knows the foibles of his Asian
guests for authentic "natives", he has
planned for a local highlight of the final
event beforehand: Football at Schalke
stadium and chips with ketchup and
mayonnaise .
Scenarios
59
sustainability manifests itself in changed re-
quirements claimed by many smaller event
organisers directly looking for sustainably
constructed or modernised venues for their
meetings.
"Industrial society needs to radically
change its way of thinking, directed away
from the mere consumption of available
resources and towards their sustainable
use. For architecture, this means: to design
buildings in a way that they have a maxim-
ised useful life."
Christian Helfrich, Architect at David
Chipperfield Architects
Good, timeless buildings at low costs
By 2030, more and more builders and opera-
tors, project controllers and architects will
have turned to new ways of sparing usage
of resources and deceleration, planning for
a long-term use of meeting and convention
centres from the beginning. They prefer-
ably employ sustainable, efficiently used,
locally provided materials, natural stones
and home-grown wood. Buildings are rarely
geared towards complying with the current
taste. As the sustainability motto of far-
sighted builders is: "to build a good, timeless
building at low costs".
Deconstruction and recycling of a building are
integrated in construction planning. Materi-
als such as concrete or steel are mainly used
without mixing materials so that deconstruc-
tion can be performed without any problems
later. The space concept is cooperative and
no longer hierarchic, meeting the users’ vari-
ous needs and desires. It usually consists of
several small, medium-sized and large rooms
which can be flexibly used and combined, if
required. Fixtures depending on maintenance
are deliberately avoided.
Certification systems become more important
All those innovations in the area of sustain-
able building are rewarded with higher ratings
by the German Sustainable Building Council
(DGNB) and thus supported. Since the DGNB
began its work in 2009, around 600 buildings
had been certified by the end of 2012. The
DGNB carefully selects and defines specific
certification criteria for individual building
types.
Auditor Christian Luft: "The DGNB aims to
get the most in sustainability from every type
of building. It takes about one year to develop
a new usage profile since all members of the
new-user body work in an honorary capacity.
This is the reason why convention centres,
for example, have to wait a year for a new
DGNB certificate. Until that time one can
rely on already existing usage profiles. They
may, however, not be optimally suited for the
object to be certified."
It is interesting that the DGNB standard not
only covers ecological criteria but also takes
into account the economic sustainability
and sociocultural qualities of a building.
Such kind of certification certainly gives the
builder a competitive edge. Already for a
long time, solvent purchasers have bought
office buildings at attractive city locations
with certification only. If hotels, event and
congress buildings desire to be booked by
corporations listed on the stock exchange,
certification is a must. For industrial event
organisers, it is particularly important to
communicate the company image with
regard to quality, sustainability and individu-
ality, for example, through the choice of
•
•
Scenarios
How does a change of societal values manifest in the architecture of congress centres?
"High-quality and extraordinary
architecture has always been impor-
tant for the marketing of congress
centres. The precursor type of town
halls also had the obligation to
represent duty, wealth, education and
pride of the urban bourgeoisie in an
architectural way. But the perception
of extraordinariness has changed.
While the mere size of a building or
its rich furnishing formerly was often
sufficient to make an impression on
its visitors, the public’s awareness
of values like sustainability, careful
consideration of the landscape and
regional culture, and inventive archi-
tectural solutions regarding the usage
of space has been growing lately."
Olaf Pfeifer, Architect and Architecture Scientist
60
Scenarios
the event location — which should prefer-
ably be correspondingly certified.
Daylight, natural air conditioning and ventilation as wellness factors
The requirements of the participants with
regard to comfort and a sense of wellbe-
ing within a building will be extremely
high in 2030. Since 2020, the majority
of guests expect that not only the entry
foyers but also large meeting rooms be
flooded with daylight. The megatrend
of health and the process of refinement
have led to a development away from
large, artificially lighted halls and towards
flexibly usable rooms with natural day-
light.
In 2030, it has been state of the art for
some time to carry out a thermo-dyna-
mic simulation and daylight simulation
already at an early planning stage. This
way, planning can take into account early
where sunlight can be used as heating
source, where a lot of heat is created by
visitors, etc. The simulated entry of day-
light is also used for optimal assignment
of rooms and for facade design so that
the consumption of electrical energy for
lighting can be reduced. This has an im-
pact on the visitors’ wellbeing who often
judge the quality and also the functional-
ity of architecture by the high volume of
daylight allowed to enter the building.
•
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theories with regard to probability and time:
“Project development with thermodynamical simulation (heating by means of sunlight radiation, waste heat, etc.) is state of the art.”
42%
high
17% 12%
low
29%
don’t know /
n.s.
don’t know /
n.s.
c20,8%by 2019
29,2%by 2024
8,3%by 2014
8,3%by 2030
When?
c25%by 2019
20,8%by 2024
12,5%by 2014
8,3%by 2030
When?
“Meeting and convention centres meet their power, heating and air conditioning requirements by means of regenerative energies exclusively.”
42%
high
25% 8%
low
medium
medium
25%
61
Scenarios
Aside from daylight and view, the quality of
the air in the rooms is an important wellness
factor. Natural air conditioning ("controlled
air supply") has been a long introduced
standard in 2030. Visitors not only have
a sensible perception of natural light and
natural air conditioning but also a refined
awareness of sustainable architecture,
careful consideration of the landscape and
regional culture, and a preference for inven-
tive architectural solutions regarding the us-
age of space. Additional financial investment
by the builders in high-quality architects’
competition and a certification process ac-
companying the construction can amortise
just by the fact that the completed, aestheti-
cally attractive and functional building will
be especially appreciated by participants and
event organisers alike.
Formerly used building materials the com-
ponents of which have proved hazardous to
health still emerge time and again in 2030.
Centres certified according to the DGNB
standard have a competitive edge in that
situation; they are even able to attract more
health-conscious guests and event organis-
ers by referring to the low-pollutant air in the
centre.
Buildings with alternative uses as popular exotics
Other event organisers and participants are
searching for diversion, convention locations
characterised by individuality, emotional-
ity and authenticity. Here, it seems logical
to open up buildings from earlier times for
the meeting and conventions industry at
least temporarily. In addition to the deliber-
ately unspecific modern congress centres,
such unusual locations possessing a patina
and their own history extend the range of
meeting options. At the same time, such
buildings contribute to a regional profile and
a particular image.
Temporary, recyclable congress buildings to meet new requirements
In the age of advanced internet, pictures
reduced to logos have gained a lot in im-
portance in the building industry as well.
"In particular young architects often tend
to develop a new building not for its future
function but with an image identity in
mind."Their buildings may really be spectacu-
lar from the outside, attracting visitors, but
are they really suitable for holding repeated
meetings and conventions? Since the re-
quirements of the constantly developing
science society regarding congress buildings
are subject to ever more rapid change, con-
gress buildings are deliberately designed for
a reduced useful life of 10 to 15 years also in
2030. The ecologically oriented architecture
professor Guenter Pfeifer appreciated that
development already in 2013: "If a building
can be simply deconstructed and recycled
after 15 years, this can also be regarded as
sustainable building."
German society is, in particular, characterised by demographic change in the developed countries From 2020 German meeting and conven-
tion centres have embraced this situation an
opportunity, and since then have been seen
the world over as industry pioneers regarding
barrier-free accessibility. Clarity, transparency
and reliability for older and also handicapped
guests at their arrival and when attending
meetings and conventions are of special
relevance to the organisers.
ACCESSIBILITY WILL GAIN IN IMPORTANCE IN THE FUTURE.
62
Scenarios
SCENARIO
Transfer of knowledgeAgainst the background of increasing complexity of the living and working envi-ronments and the social circumstances, the acceleration of numerous development processes and the world-wide growing volume of knowledge, the need for adequate conducive spaces for the transfer of knowledge is increasing. Given the trends of individualisation, globalisation, demographic change and a knowledge society, this need should have reached another peak by 2030.
63
Rising pressure to performTo an even higher degree than anticipated
today, the pressure to perform will prob-
ably rise, blurring the boundaries between
professional and private life. Lifelong
learning, gaining intercultural knowledge,
and constant availability are requirements
taking many people to their limits and
even beyond. Various forms of working
time reductions and flexible job models
(including sabbaticals) may provide relief
here.
New forms and possibilities to acquire knowledgeDiverse methods for acquiring knowledge
will complement the traditional forms.
This includes the employment of most
different technologies and tools, mainly
new developments during virtual confer-
ences, but also countless individual forms
of gaining knowledge: almost all universi-
ties offer Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOC), for example. This special kind of
online courses for a great number of par-
ticipants has been able to take hold within
only a few years. In times of business
economic pressures and calculations, this
digitalisation of teaching is an important
and innovative method for the transfer of
knowledge for many universities.
Aside from English as the internationally
dominant conference language, there
are second languages such as Chinese,
Hindi and Spanish which are spoken in
large regions. Due to the largely advanced
translation technology, application is pos-
sible without any problems.
The older generation is increasingly taken
into account and can influence the top-
ics and the layout of event formats to a
higher degree, since it represents the ma-
jority of the population. The emergence
of various quality seals and certifications,
and the setting of standards for various
aspects, will be an important trend in this
context.
Scenarios
BY THE YEAR 2030, MOBILE APPLICATIONS WILL HAVE CERTAINLY ALSO PENETRATED THE LIVING ENVIRONMENT OF OLDER PEOPLE TO A HIGHER DEGREE THAN IT IS THE CASE TODAY.
•
Scenario: Enhanced IndividualsAn extreme example applying to a minority only but getting more and
more popular in certain social environments are implants. They are
supposed to enhance the cognitive skills and perception of people. The
carriers of such implants are called "Enhanced Individuals" which some
people object to. For various reasons, they do not want to disclose their
artificially acquired skills. With some job descriptions, however, disclo-
sure is expected, which leads to enormous legal and insurance-related
issues.
Hybrid events and measured employment of technologyApart from this dichotomy of "High Tech"
(handling of technology) and "High Touch"
(dealing with people), the topic of the next
two decades for the majority of events
will be how to adequately employ technol-
ogy. Depending on the format, function
and audience of an event, the increasingly
convergent segments of stage technology,
lighting, acoustics, presentation and trans-
lation technology as well as interactive and
feedback options (voting and gaming, for
example) need to be applied and utilised in
a well-measured manner. For this purpose,
the desires of customers and participants
need to be anticipated as exactly as pos-
sible in order to be able to address the
individual technical, service-related and
dramaturgical requirements and to make
corresponding proposals. A good techno-
logical infrastructure needs to be estab-
lished allowing the use of various media
and event technologies without causing
much friction or problems to the users.
By the year 2030, mobile applications will
have certainly also penetrated the living
environment of older people to a higher
degree than it is the case today. Thus, a
certain familiarity with the handling of
64
technology may be assumed. Predominantly
user-friendly mobile and context-adaptable
user interfaces for man-machine systems
will be widely used. Nevertheless, the ap-
plication of new technologies will probably
require higher educational efforts to allow
the participants to handle new tools in an
efficient and responsible way.
The typical time-related distribution pattern
of innovations should still be applicable
which states that certain technical applica-
tions become widely used only after several
years. Event organisers tend to rely on al-
ready proven solutions and not so much on
state-of-the-art technologies which might
cause irritation with the participants.
Face-to-face: flexible formats and current references
Meetings mainly serve to get acquainted,
exchange information and experiences,
establish contact and links with people in
various functions and with various potential.
This can be intensified or technologically
Scenarios
•
•
Which types and structures of events will we see in the future instead of traditional conferences and conventions? What must the meeting and convention industry do to be prepared for these changes?
Adrian Segar designs and facilitates participant-driven and participation-rich events. He is the author of the book "Conferences That Work: Creating Events That People Love", published at Conferences That Work, Marlboro, Vermont• www.conferencesthatwork.com
In the future we’ll see events that concentrate more on sup-
porting meaningful connections between attendees and less
on broadcast content. As useful content becomes increasingly
available online, meetings need to concentrate on what they
do best: allowing people to meet, connect, and engage.
We’ll also see participant-driven event formats like "Open
Space" and "Conferences That Work" replacing traditional
event formats. Today people learn most of what they need to
do to do their job from their peers, not in the classroom. Our
events need to mirror this new reality. In addition, conference
sessions will include much more attendee participation and
less lecturing. Session designs will incorporate what we’ve
known for a long time: people learn better when they partici-
pate in their learning rather than passively listen.
An increasing number of meetings will be hybrid events. The
advantages of including those who cannot physically attend
are many, and the relevant technology is becoming easier to
apply and manage.
The meeting industry must prepare for these changes. Venues
will be asked to provide different kinds of spaces from the
past. Compared with traditional events of the same size, par-
ticipatory conferences require more large rooms and a greater
number of nearby small rooms for intimate breakout sessions.
Venues will also need to handle the demand for new room
sets. No more new auditoriums or classrooms with fixed seat-
ing! New conference formats require moveable lightweight
flexible seating, preferably with casters so that participants
can move between large group and small group activities.
Tables will be used less as they get in the way of interactions
between attendees.
Reliable internet access, with appropriate bandwidth avail-
able for attendee needs, will become as important as food and
drink. Build the cost into your budget!
Finally, be prepared for a switch in event staffing. The demand
for skillful meeting session facilitators will grow, replacing
some speakers and emcees.
65
Scenarios
FICTION
Enhancing the attractiveness of meetings and conventions by means of sustainability, reduction and inclusion
Sustainable locations for sustainable transfer of knowledge: less is more
"Why do I have to attend a congress
in the sticks?", grumbles Jane Fast,
reporter of a renowned science
magazine for history and art. "Clay
Town 3000, consequently barrier-free
ecological construction, post-urban
locations and renunciation of the
digital overkill...", she contemptu-
ously quotes the description from the
congress materials. "This just means:
old people, itchy bedding, no mobile
network connection, purely Stone
Age, and carrots to eat."But both the
topic of "Limits of cryptology" and
the list of international speakers
promise a very interesting pro-
gramme. Thus, Jane packs a vintage
note pad and pen, and takes off.
From the small provincial railway sta-
tion, the organiser — in cooperation
with the local railway network opera-
tor — offers a handcar shuttle to the
meeting location . Together with other
participants, Jane pedals forcefully . To
the amused pleasure of all passengers,
a wheelchair user loudly encourages his
personal assistant . In a casual atmos-
phere, first contacts are made, and Jane
even forgets to make a last phone call .
At first, she finds the guest houses
arranged in a star-layout around the
round congress hall and connected by
small roofed runways very Spartan, but
then has to admit that the modular
concept of simple buildings intended
for temporary use has been very suc-
cessfully implemented . And within the
buildings, every square centimetre has
been optimally utilised .
Jane is clearly excited about the round
congress building constructed with
wood and glass . Daylight is allowed to
enter through large windows, and due
to the natural building materials, the
indoor climate is comfortable . Slightly
inclined ramps connect the individual
levels, which not only benefits older
and handicapped participants but also
furthers communication: the wide
hallway inevitably leads to encounters
and joint walks . The participants get to
talking, wide steps serve as seating .
In lounge-like niches, workshops are
held, and selected lecturers like the
Swiss Wyss, emeritus professor for
ancient languages, invite for face-to-
face discussions . Jane even takes part
in a gaming . Teamed up with a Swedish
journalist and a young Arab, a secret
message needs to be deciphered . After
correct decryption, the code gives
directions to the abundant, season-
ally and regionally oriented buffet . As
she learns, the organiser uses local
suppliers for the catering exclusively,
so that top quality throughout the year
and planning reliability for farmers and
processing companies is guaranteed .
Thanks to its cone shape, the lecture
hall offers excellent acoustics and an
optimal sight of the speaker even from
the rows in the back . For a good reason:
not only the participants are offline,
but also the lecturers speak without
the usual technical means . A challenge
that is mastered by many of them with
humour and spirit . Instead of uninspir-
ing lectures read by the script, they are
really performing . Interposed questions
are explicitly asked for, the audience
is getting involved through stand-up
role plays, and small experiments
complement the package of a versatile
transfer of knowledge .
66
Scenarios
Which forms and structures will replace the classic meetings and conventions in the future, and which prerequisites need to be created by service providers in the meeting and conventions industry?
"The digital age is characterised by an extremely easy acces-
sibility of knowledge and information through the Internet
as well as networking via social media. For this reason,
conferences and similar events are facing entirely new
challenges: going beyond the exchange of information or
the transfer of knowledge, events need to offer options for
community building and true collaboration. Modern partici-
pants are very well informed and cannot be convinced by
means of classroom lectures or product pitches any more.
They rather expect answers to their individual questions and
want to discuss with other participants as well as with the
speakers about experiences and approaches in order to be
able to benefit mutually. For this purpose, formats with an
open structure have to be created, allowing interaction and
participation.
To sustainably create communities for certain topics in the
course of an event, the corresponding digital rooms need to
be provided in addition to innovative formats. This requires
digital tools and platforms to allow the participants to net-
work already prior to the event and collaboratively use knowl-
edge and contacts afterwards as well. The enhancement of
the physical event room by a digital one can occur not only
before and after an event, however, but also in parallel, in
order to involve interested persons who cannot be present
physically. Given such possibilities, event managers increas-
ingly become community managers. They get the chance to
sustainably built a community — not only through a specific
topic but also by their specific approach and the experience
they shape — and at the same time develop a corresponding
business model."
Claudia Brückner, Event Concepter, www.claudiabrueckner.de
supported using initial phases with
speed dating or special introductory rounds,
for example. This serves for breaking the
ice and establishing a positive construc-
tive and open atmosphere (willingness to
absorb information and give information).
On the other hand the following becomes
clear: Who do I have to deal with? Are there
especially interesting persons among the
participants?…
Contrary to the usual methods used during
conferences, situation- and attendee-spe-
cific formats could be applied and then —
taking into account current developments
in connection with the subject of the event.
Event organisers are mainly responsible to
arrange the framework of the event and —
among other things, by employing suitable
hosts — to make sure that the participants
fit into this framework. Open-space confer-
ences or BarCamps offer their services
mainly in the area of self-organised trans-
fer of information and knowledge.
The availability of flexible infrastructures
for space and technology is an inevitable
prerequisite for events of this kind. Given
the accelerated course of everyday work
which can be mastered only barely, many
meetings and conventions also serve for
exchanging information in an unhurried
way and conducting more serious and sys-
tematic discussions. This is almost impos-
sible under everyday working conditions.
Some formats combine scientific and
political events with sessions focussed on
psychosocial regeneration. The goal is to
address, strengthen and vitalise all senses.
DURING BREAKS, THE PARTICIPANTS GET ANIMATED TO
PERFORM COMMON PLAYFUL AND
VITALISING RITUALS OFFERING FUN AND
REFRESHING MIND AND BODY ALIKE.
•
67
Scenarios
THE GOAL IS TO ADDRESS, STRENGTHEN AND VITALISE ALL SENSES. THIS HAS A POSITIVE IMPACT ON CONCENTRATION, CREATIVITY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MEETING AND CONVENTION ATTENDEES.
Experience has shown that this has a posi-
tive impact on concentration, creativity and
productivity of the meeting and conven-
tion attendees. The following trend which
initially was observed during meetings for
younger people will probably have taken
hold widely by 2030: during breaks, the
participants get animated to perform com-
mon playful and vitalising rituals offering
fun and refreshing mind and body alike. As
a matter of course, such rituals are adapted
to the participants' age and physical fit-
ness.
Personal meetings with lecturers and selected personalities
To increase the "added value" of personal
participation in an event, there will be the
option of applying for a personal meet-
ing or consultation with selected speak-
ers when registering for the event at an
early time (paying a premium, if required).
Individual participants would be given
the opportunity to discuss specific issues
directly with selected experts during short
time windows. For speakers, the incentive
would be a higher compensation and / or
the higher probability of a new assignment.
When exploiting the technological potential
in the area of holographic 3D projection, the
selected personalities and experts do not
even need to be present in person.
Depending on the number of participants
interested, small or large areas of the
meeting room can be separated by means
of various lighting scenarios, for exam-
ple, where the selected experts, including
potential objects of demonstration, can be
displayed as large as life and addressed.
Local embedding
In order to ensure high and constant use
to capacity of the expensive buildings and
rooms as well as to strengthen the local
and regional embedding (which should be
highly appreciated in view of sustainabil-
ity efforts), event organisers also open up
towards smaller organisations and institu-
tions (associations, schools, etc.) which had
not been addressed so far. For this purpose,
special offers and scheduled events are
created.
Participants (including speakers) travelling a
long way to attend meetings and conven-
tions are offered to bring their partners
or families to avoid being constantly
separated. Special accompanying offers or
exclusive visitor programmes in companies
and with experts are offered to this end.
This enhances the attractiveness of events
even if the attendees need to make long
journeys.
68
SCENARIO
TechnologyThe increasing use of technology at meetings and conventions and the changing needs of their attendees have led to the introduction of novel event concepts by 2030. Strict rules and fixed locations are abandoned to the benefit of flexibility.
Scenarios
69
Events increasingly become places of
communication. Attractive environ-
ments meeting the specific require-
ments not only enhance the efficiency
but also the effectiveness of meetings
and conventions. Ultimately, powerful
technological equipment of the event
locations and technological support
for all processes in all phases of value
creation — starting with preparation, ex-
ecution and through to follow-up — are
decisive criteria for successful events.
Particularly meetings of highly political
significance are supported by the appli-
cation of selected security technologies.
Not least, the usage of novel technolo-
gies and the establishment of innova-
tive processes are the basis for many
new business models in the meeting
and conventions industry.
Concepts of decentralised eventsIn 2030, various technologies for sup-
porting decentralised event concepts are
available to the organisers of meet-
ings and conventions. This enhanced
approach has proved successful for the
national and international economy
in particular, but also for the increas-
ingly globalised area of politics. In 2030,
decentralised concepts are applied
especially for meetings and conventions
that accompany trade shows — and
often on an international scale. For this
purpose, innovation-oriented megacities
in the U.S.A., Asia and Europe are often
included as event partners.
The professional and reliable collabora-
tion of the German players with other
countries has enhanced the status of
Germany as a whole and intensified
existing cooperations. Extending the
concepts towards globally distributed
decentralised structures not only reflects
the innovation-oriented needs of econo-
my and politics but also their obligation
to meet the sustainability requirements
in social and ecological matters. As part
of decentrally organised events, not only
various locations all over the world but
also virtual rooms are connected.
A factor for the success of decentralised
event concepts is the establishment of a
guiding concept which coordinates the in-
dividual parts of the event taking place at
different locations and in the virtual room,
constantly matches them with the greater
meeting and convention goals, and brings
together the players involved in terms of
contents and communication.
Use of technologies during preparation, execution and follow-up
The extended use of technologies in the
meeting and conventions industry espe-
cially leads to an enhanced interaction
between the bearers of knowledge and
experience. Modern technologies sup-
port personal contact and the possibility
of exchanging information between
all persons involved. This applies to all
stages of events: from preparation, over
execution, through to follow-up.
The preparation stage of meetings and
conventions has been substantially
appreciated by the use of new technolo-
gies. This is true not only with regard to
the attraction of participants but also
for the entire concept of the event. It is
no longer sufficient to plan and execute
an event the traditional way. The new
generation of people who have grown
up with social media expects to receive
a large part of the information already
in the run-up to the event. At the same
time people expect that their individual
interests and skills are strongly taken
into account. In 2030, the stakeholders
relevant to the event are involved in the
selection and prioritising of event topics
and locations as well as in the planning
for the framework programme using
modern collaboration solutions. A series
of technology-supported services has
proved useful allowing access to selected
information with regard to topics and
participants. Background information,
key activities and interests of the poten-
tial virtual and physical participants are
provided, for example. At a predefined
time, proposed additional items to
the planned key topic of the event are
matched and finalised ("reality check").
Virtually and physically
As a rule, events with on-site attend-
ance are enhanced by virtual elements,
which leads to various combinations of
"hybrid events" dominating the market.
Dialogue will be in the centre of such
events even in 2030. During an event,
the audience is actively involved based
on innovative technologies, submitting
information, planning activities, and
gathering data. But networking of the
participants is technologically supported
as well: both with regard to planned
and carefully prepared networking, and
with regard to organising spontaneous,
unreckoned connections. Communication
on site correlates with the communica-
tion in the virtual room. This requires
the organisational, content-related
and technical matching of individual
elements, and primarily the planning of
physical and virtual units which has to be
integrated from the beginning.
OLED — the two-dimensional light source
The assessments by the technology
experts interviewed of the probability of
a future distribution of 3D projections,
multibiometric systems and OLED’s in
the meeting and conventions industry
differ greatly. The probability is high
that OLEDs will be widely applied and
also used in the industry. Regarding the
period of distribution, over 40 per cent
of the persons interviewed suspect that
OLEDs will be widely used by 2019 at the
latest. For 3D projectors, probability is
assessed less high, but over 60 per cent
of the persons interviewed think
Scenarios
•
70
Scenarios
FICTION
Decentralised congress locations and efficient use of technology
Welcome to the holodeck: Here, the world is communicating!
Ever shorter intervals for ground-
breaking medical diagnostics and
therapy options require a timely
training of medical professionals.
This is the reason why Education
Enterprises has specialised in educa-
tion conventions for the health sector
already early. Review and evaluation
of scientific publications and research
series are performed constantly. Thus,
project manager Samuel Baier knows
at an early time that a novel opera-
tion procedure for geriatric surgery
is almost ready to be marketed and
renowned clinics are already waiting
for corresponding training. The time is
right to organise a convention on this
topic.
At the beginning of the 2020ies,
preparation of scientific congresses is
significantly facilitated by using the
Semantic Web: while the World Wide
Web just links data, the Semantic Web
allows targeted linking of meanings
and their processing by a computer,
which independently interprets and
further processes the information
thereby generating new contents .
The Semantic Web and the use of con-
vergent technologies make search work
easier for Samuel Baier, which signifi-
cantly reduces the preparation time for
meetings . Shortly after his enquiry via
the language assistant, Samuel Baier
receives a list of high-quality lecturers
selected by their awards, sociocultural
background and audience rating . On
the Lightboard — a high-resolution,
ultra-thin display made to measure for
his office walls — locations for national
face-to-face conventions on the pre-
determined date are proposed, sorted
by capacities and technical equip-
ment . After choosing the locations and
confirming the booking, Baier invites
his favourite lecturers for a kick-off
meeting: Professor Neubert and the
American McAtee are old acquaint-
ances, Professor Xiping is needed as
a magnet for the Asian professional
audience . Confidently, Baier intro-
duces Professor Sara Akhondy to the
illustrious round . The Chief Physician
of the Tehran University Clinics shows
excellent holo-grams of complicated
neck of femur fractures and immedi-
ately agrees to train colleagues in the
novel operation technique live on the
holodeck .
Baier forwards the convention script
enhanced by 3D picture material to the
marketing department . Aside from a
portal where the event is published
to be seen by all clinics or hospitals
of any size, designers create a colour
concept for the OLED panels as well
as a sound and fragrance CI in order
to add the corresponding atmosphere
to all advertising materials — and to
the decentralised convention loca-
tions in particular . Comprehensive data
protection is established in parallel:
access rights to personal and profes-
sional information comply with the
international Privacy Guideline and
are granted depending on the type
of booking — physical attendance or
virtual attendance .
During the convention, Samuel Baier
selects the camera pictures of the con-
vention locations for live transmission
from the control room and enhances
discussions by introducing virtual
experts and posing specific questions
from the Web Community .
At the same time, follow-up of the
convention starts: an excerpt is dis-
tributed via open source, the in-house
scientific publisher publishes the
convention results as e-book . Samuel
Baier notes that a large number of
orders originate from small hospitals
and considers the thought to choose
a typical country doctor topic for the
next convention .
71
that the probability of distribution will
be medium or high. The time of expected
implementation, however, is assumed to
be far into the year 2030. The probability
of distribution of multibiometric systems
in the meeting and conventions industry
is assessed even lower: only 12.5 per cent
of the responders consider the probability
to be high. The time of implementation is
expected to be near 2024 by a third of the
persons interviewed, but the variation is
wide here as well.
In the area of lighting concepts, OLEDs (Or-
ganic Light-Emitting Diodes) will have tak-
en hold as widely used standard by 2030.
This two-dimensional light source emits
soft and largely non-glare light without
sharp shadows as required at many event
locations. As OLEDs are extremely thin and
lightweight — with a thickness of less than
500 nanometres, which is around 100 times
thinner than a human hair — they form the
basis for completely novel applications on
walls, wallpaper or in furniture and fabrics.
OLEDs are used as luminous areas, forming
direction signs at event centres or hotels,
for example. Part of the windows — espe-
cially at large event centres — completely
consist of OLED panels. If turned off, they
allow looking outside, turned on, they emit
light in any desired colour and colour tem-
perature, while at the same time protecting
the interior of the meeting and convention
centre from views from the outside. OLED-
based lighting scenarios also support the
formation of subject-specific islands which
are often created spontaneously at meet-
ings and conventions. In addition, so-called
co-working spaces offer sound-insulated
glass telephone boxes, service points and
meeting areas.
Science Fiction
In 2030, the holodecks known from Sci-
ence Fiction are used as simulated 3D
environment in some event formats. This
way, topics are made more palpable for all
participants: virtual objects, such as balls
or wooden blocks, can be touched with the
hands on the holodeck. Objects which are
actually not real can be touched, thrown
back and forth, piled one over the other. Lec-
turers who are not physically present are in-
volved in the event using 3D projection.
Scenarios
AS OLEDS ARE EXTREMELY THIN AND LIGHTWEIGHT, THEY FORM THE BASIS FOR COMPLE-TELY NOVEL APPLI-CATIONS ON WALLS, WALLPAPER, OR IN FURNITURE AND FABRICS.
•
•
c12,5%by 2014
20,8%by 2024
29,2%by 2019
8,3%by 2030
When?
50%
high
25%
medium
0%
low
25%
don’t know / n.s.
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:
“Organic Light-Emitting Diodes (OLED’s) have taken hold as the new generation of lighting. The light saves energy and can be generated in various hues and shapes.”
4,2%after 2030
72
Scenarios
For the attendees, the illusion is gener-
ated that they are in the same room with
the speaker or the objects demonstrated
during the lecture. This supports the trend
towards a smaller size of meeting and
convention formats. Accordingly, more
experts who make only brief contributions
can be involved. This can also be decided
spontaneously, when participants need
further and more specific information or
clarification, for example.
On the fly
Follow-up of meetings and conventions is
supported by the use of new technologies
as well. In principle, minutes of meeting
are created directly during the event and
made available in real time. Depending on
the character of the event, this is carried
out via a "closed shop" or freely accessible
for all persons interested. During follow-
up, findings from the event are validated,
corrected or amended, if required, via
a web-based communication platform.
Such platforms are not only content-
related storage spaces for knowledge but
You say that meeting and convention attendees will no longer want to be quiet recipi-ents in fixed seating rows in the future but will advance to become networked active play-ers. What are the indicators for such change? And which challenges do you see for the meeting and conventions industry?
"The role image at meetings, seminars,
and conventions is going through a
radical change. Participants actually do
no longer want to be quiet recipients in
fixed seating rows. They wish to be of-
fered options to be able to make com-
ments, assessments, and to actively
participate. Digitalisation and the large
number of technical innovations have
strongly altered the communication
habits of modern individuals and thus
also their expectations with regard to
communication platforms and media.
This especially applies to the Internet
and its activation for the everyday use
of social networks and mobile devices.
The challenge for meetings and con-
ventions is not just to react on this
change but to take advantage of it.
Many online, social media and mobile
tools are used during meetings already
today. But the development pos-
sibilities have not been exhausted
by far. Innovation potential not only
lies with the hardware but with the
development of holistic, networked
concepts in particular. This requires
discipline-spanning collaboration.
This collaboration functions well at an
in-house innovation lab where media
designers, software developers and
scenographers perform joint research
and development. Therefore, commu-
nication options may open up, going
far beyond the traditional commenting
and evaluating. In the future, the point
will be to create new and intelligent
interfaces in order to filter the contents
of an event according to individual in-
terests and combine them to generate
new results. And the goal is what we
call "interconnection": to bring together
people with similar interests to allow
them to exchange information and
experiences, jointly develop new ideas,
and to make a difference together. We
see visitors, speakers and organisers as
active elements of a networked world
where they interact before, during and
after the meeting.
Such interconnective concepts may
enhance the quality of meetings and
conventions with regard to all impor-
tant criteria: relevance of the contents,
acquisition of knowledge, team build-
ing or matching of participants, quality
of the dialogue, and the organisational
course of events. Embedded in a good
scenographic concept, they can effec-
tively initiate and accompany commu-
nication processes."
•
Thomas Frenzel, Milla & Partner GmbH
73
Scenarios
also central places of communication and
interconnection of all persons involved.
Based on swarm intelligence via the web,
mainly the event locations frequented by
political or economic top personalities are
controlled and secured. In the scope of
the extended security concept, the water
infrastructure, for example, moves into
the centre of attention: small robot fish
used in the drinking water system inde-
pendently communicate with each other
using a web-based software in order to
identify and assess changes of the water
quality which might be hazardous to
health. In case of certain value patterns
or value clusters, measures to clean the
water are taken or an alarm is triggered.
New service segments
Surprise effects serving to generate
emotions in the participants are still an
essential part of meetings and conven-
tions. The requirements with regard to
the planning and coordination of meet-
ings and conventions have grown given
the increasing use of technology and
flexibilisation. Thus, the organisers are
facing high requirements with regard to
their technical skills. As a consequence,
a specialised service segment for the use
of convergent technologies at meetings
and conventions has become estab-
lished.
20,8%by 2019
0,8%2019
c20,8%by 2030
29,2%by 2024
When?
25%
high
38%
medium
12%
low
25%
don’t know / n.s.
In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:“3D projectors provide plastic and true-to-reality full-colour images. The result are three-dimensional light figures: holograms”3D
74
Summary
75
Summary
Summary of Study Results This study has a broad sociological and multidisciplinary foundation that includes a wide range of experiences and perspectives in and outside of the industry. The intent was to avoid overrating individual popular trends and losing sight of the whole picture, the realities and probabilities. To make realistic assessments, it is necessary to look at the many factors and phenomena as well as their interactions and dynamics.
76
R The Most Important Results: In the next two decades the „hu-man measure“ (Albert Schweitzer) will still be an important guideline for processes of change.
In his book Megatrends, John Naisbitt re-
fers to continuous tension between various
forces and trends. Concerning the use of
new technologies, he points out that, even
with all the new technological options and
applications, human beings have to be con-
sidered - with all their desires and abilities,
fears and preferences desires. This is why
he speaks of re-balancing the relationship
between „high tech“ and „high touch,“ the
concrete use of new technology and, at the
same time, the need for human and social
contact and awareness of human needs.
R The study shows that options such as knowledge transfer, technology and architecture will increase in use in the meetings and will supplement previous formats and concepts.
This will mean combining communication
technologies such as „cloud computing“
with building technology and the „Inter-
net of Things and Services,“ holography
for the visualization of presentations (in
integrated wellness sequences), meeting
preparation and follow-up or opinion polls
using innovative visualization techniques.
Select megatrends were defined to illus-
trate these developments. In the online
survey, industry experts rated the follow-
ing megatrends as especially relevant:
Summary
Technology
Globalisation
Mobility
Sustainability
Demographic Change
Security
Peak Everything
Urbanisation
Feminisation
very strongly strongly less strongly not at all don’t know not specified
26.0 14.337.7
28,.6 10.439.0
41.6 7.827.3
20,8 20,836,4
18.2 10.451.9
10,.4 26.032.5
10,4 22.140.3
24.7 40.32.6
22.1 36.43.9
What social megatrends do you think will seriously influence and challenge the meetings industry in the medium term?
(Online survey question)
Figures in % n=77
77
» Technology in Work and Life
» Globalisation and Internationalisation
» Demographic Change, Feminisation and
Diversity
» Mobility of the Future
» Sustainable Development
Technology will specifically shape and chal-
lenge the meetings industry by 2030. The
Internet, social media and mobile devices
are the sources of this transformation.
R A majority of people in the industrial countries will poten-tially have access to almost all information almost always.
In the „Internet of Things,“ it will be pos-
sible to identify, localise and steer not only
data, but also many devices and everyday
objects directly through the Internet. This
will have a significant effect on the organi-
zation of meetings and conventions. It will
open up the way for completely new models
of organization and division of labor.
R Virtual meetings - spread around the whole world - will theoretically be possible.
„Rooms will have to be arranged for ac-
commodating ‚virtual‘ speakers who don‘t
want to travel long distances.“ (Stefan
Rief, Fraunhofer IAO) But virtualisation
also opens up new questions: How much
presence and how many integration and
communication services are necessary to
achieve meetings and conventions?
R In sum, the use of various technologies will lead to event formats lasting longer.
Ideally, meetings and conventions will be
preceded by an intensive customer-orient-
ed introductory phase and concluded with
a professional follow-up which includes all
participants who were actively involved.
The internationalisation of science and
economics will lead to increased network-
ing needs and expenses for all organisa-
tions involved.
This also accelerates the technisation of
the meetings. There will be an increasing
demand for collaboration technologies
such as Audio- and video conferences, digi-
tal whiteboards, visualisers, shared views,
shared applications or holodecks.
R Need-based systems that contribute to communication and collaboration in groups sepa-rated by time and/or distance will become more important for future meetings and conferences.
Various locations around the world and
virtual rooms will be linked with each other
during decentralised events. The success
of these concepts depends on a central
concept in order to coordinate the event
elements in different locations and virtual
spaces, adjust them to the meeting and
convention goals and communicate with
everyone involved.
Organisers of meetings and conventions
already use a variety of technologies to
collect feedback.
R It is very likely that interactive events will become more impor-tant or even one of the central success factors in the future.
The integration and involvement of partici-
pants - that is, the integration of knowl-
edge, participant experience and expecta-
tions of the meeting or convention can
be improved during events. Future event
formats will be required to take the place
of today‘s normal lecture style or supple-
ment it with active participation. People
at meetings and conventions will probably
use their own mobile devices to contribute
to the interaction, running and manage-
ment of events.
R With increasing use of technology, an essential condition for successful future meetings and conventions will be the provision of „anthropomorphic“ human-machine interfaces for technical systems that can obtain usable information from users‘ contextual and often vague input.
Graphic design of technical features such
as screens or displays, entry type and pro-
Summary
b
SUMMARYTHE INCREASING PRE-VALENCE OF TECHNO-LOGY WILL GREATLY AFFECT AND CHAL-LENGE THE MEETINGS INDUSTRY.
78
Feminisation
Individualisation
Respect and Tolerance
Aging Society
Change in Values
Environmental Standards
New Social Standards
Transparency through the Internet
Modernisation Needs
Depletion of Natural Resources
SecuritySSeecS
Demographic Change
Sustainabililty
Peak Everythingthinggggg
Mobility
Globalisation
Technoloy
UrbanisationNew Educational Requirements
New Competence Requirements
A Question of Ethics
Virtualisation
Data Protection
Need for Flexibility
Rising Energy Needs
Rising Costs
Aging Society
curitycuriitic
Intercultural Skills
Data security
More Competitiveness
New Life and Work Forms
79
Feminisation
Individualisation
Respect and Tolerance
Aging Society
Change in Values
Environmental Standards
New Social Standards
Transparency through the Internet
Modernisation Needs
Depletion of Natural Resources
SecuritySSeecS
Demographic Change
Sustainabililty
Peak Everythingthinggggg
Mobility
Globalisation
Technoloy
UrbanisationNew Educational Requirements
New Competence Requirements
A Question of Ethics
Virtualisation
Data Protection
Need for Flexibility
Rising Energy Needs
Rising Costs
Aging Society
curitycuriitic
Intercultural Skills
Data security
More Competitiveness
New Life and Work Forms
80
cess logic will have to be compatible to allow
comfortable, intuitive use. Poor ergonomic
design could complicate or even prevent
interaction between people and machines.
Text-based interfaces used to be the norm;
now graphic user interfaces and touchscreens
have taken their place. In the future, more
natural interfaces such as speech and gesture
recognition will become important in transfer
of knowledge. With increasing data traffic in
the Internet and the growing importance of
cloud computing, the Internet of Things and
Services, social networks and mobile devices,
business activities in the meetings industry
will shift to a virtual level. This study indi-
cates that security and data protection will
be seriously affected, and this will influence
usability and people’s reactions to it.
R Information security, data protection and the private sphere will represent some of the most important and complicated chal-lenges for the industry, particularly for event organisers.
Technological developments will also affect
mobility - arrival to and departure from
meeting and convention event locations plus
moving about while there. Technical and
organisational security measures have to be
developed and used to guarantee informa-
tion security as far as possible.
R In the future people will be able to reach every place on earth more quickly, safely and ecologically responsibly through the use of mul-timodal transportation systems.
Ideally, the Internet of Things will bring
about a new relationship between private
and public transportation systems with an
almost complete information exchange be-
tween different transport carriers/systems
and the surrounding area. It will be impor-
tant to have multimodal concepts where all
available offers mesh with each other.
R Lifelong learning will play a major role in the meetings industry; education will be future-oriented.
Megatrends don‘t have to do with definable
processes of change, but with processes in
societies that interact with each other. Due
to the acceleration of change, the fast pace
of life and sociological dynamics, there are
more and more challenges for people and
also for the meetings industry. As a result,
lifelong learning is particularly relevant for
this industry: Long-term, holistic thinking
has to be the imperative. The right decisions
and actions are becoming an absolute condi-
tion. In this context, the goal of education
and qualification must be to promote a
„future-oriented, self-reflecting approach“
(habitus).
R The central task for all relevant actors in the meetings industry will be to inspire efforts for the intelligent and target group/customer design of events using new technologies and innovative formats the right way.
Knowledge of technological possibilities and
their correct use will be essential in the fu-
ture. Even with all the necessary specialisa-
tion, people will need to acquire basic skills
and understand the interaction, the pos-
sibilities and limits as well as risks in using
technical devices, modules and programs.
R Due to ongoing globalisation, mastery of other languages – with the support of technical devices and applications – will become the standard, along with the acquisi-tion of intercultural knowledge and competence.
This require sensitivity, the ability to reflect
and a level of emotional intelligence. For
the most part, competency and skills can be
developed in the usual learning contexts or
online. Direct acquisition and qualification
can best be achieved through travel or living
abroad.
R The variety of technical options on one hand and diversification of participants on the other will lead to special challenges.
An extreme example is the use of service
robots in event buildings, i.e., for clean-
ing, security or other routine work. Robots
could be used for assisting disabled
IN THE FUTURE NATURAL INTERFACES SUCH AS SPEECH AND GESTURE RECOGNITION WILL GAIN IN IMPORTANCE.
b
b
4.2%after 2030
In this study, industry experts were asked how probable they considered the following thesis:
c12.5%by 2030
12.5%by 2030
20.8%by 2024
20.8%by2024
25%by 2019
8.3%by 2014
When?
"The semantic web is accepted as an extension of the World Wide Web. Pure data is now information with important content. Users receive useful, credible answers without having to evaluate search engine results in advance."
33% 21% 17% 29%
high middle low don't know/not specified
c16.7%by 2014
16.7%by2024
16.7%by 2019
29.2%by 2019
8.3%after 2030
When?
"Cloud computing has taken over everywhere as a flexible use of IT services. Most private and business data can be found in the Internet data cloud. PCs no longer have physical hard drives. Laptops, smartphones and tablets are the primary computer systems."
54% 8% 8% 29%
12 5%16.7%c
8.3%after 2030
When?
"The Internet of Things has taken over. Event locations are full of intelligent devices that communicate and are linked with each other. They know what visitors want and where they should go next, o�ering the information people need about their immediate surroundings."
21% 29% 21% 29%
high middle low
high middle low don't know/not specified
don't know/not specified
Summary
81
Zusammenfassung
4.2%after 2030
In this study, industry experts were asked how probable they considered the following thesis:
c12.5%by 2030
12.5%by 2030
20.8%by 2024
20.8%by2024
25%by 2019
8.3%by 2014
When?
"The semantic web is accepted as an extension of the World Wide Web. Pure data is now information with important content. Users receive useful, credible answers without having to evaluate search engine results in advance."
33% 21% 17% 29%
high middle low don't know/not specified
c16.7%by 2014
16.7%by2024
16.7%by 2019
29.2%by 2019
8.3%after 2030
When?
"Cloud computing has taken over everywhere as a flexible use of IT services. Most private and business data can be found in the Internet data cloud. PCs no longer have physical hard drives. Laptops, smartphones and tablets are the primary computer systems."
54% 8% 8% 29%
12 5%16.7%c
8.3%after 2030
When?
"The Internet of Things has taken over. Event locations are full of intelligent devices that communicate and are linked with each other. They know what visitors want and where they should go next, o�ering the information people need about their immediate surroundings."
21% 29% 21% 29%
high middle low
high middle low don't know/not specified
don't know/not specified
82
b participants, including older people or
guests with limited mobility, who could
then move more easily in and around
convention buildings with the help of
specially modified robots.
R Event complexes and facilities will be subject to increasing quality demands.
Modernisation will have a special role in
this area with new and higher stand-
ards, monitoring, public ranking and
government, association and customer
ratings. Competition will increase and
some market sectors will further glo-
balise. Energy consumption, one of the
great cost factors, will have a decisive
role as prices continue to rise.
R There will be important consequences for the meetings industry due to ongoing demo-graphic change.
These need to be specifically assessed.
The increasing number of older people
coming to meetings and conventions
will be particularly important. Techni-
cal and organisational concepts already
exist or need to be developed. The
industry has to adjust to this change in
its own organisations and businesses,
with responses such as „age manage-
ment“ and/or „diversity management.“
Attention must be given to workforce
and team composition, personnel sup-
port and qualification, and finding work
suitable to age, specific cultural skills or
other special needs.
Best Practice: LINCThe future of conventions is already visible in the Leipzig Interventional Course
at the CCL Congress Center Leipzig.
The CCL recently hosted the Leipzig
Interventional Course (LINC) for the
fifth time . The LINC, one of the most
important conventions in the field of
minimally invasive vascular medicine,
is directed toward doctors with various
specialties from around the world .
Predictions that industry experts have
made about conventions of the future
have already become reality at the
LINC convention .
Rigid space and time limits between
various parts of a convention will
increasingly dissolve.
Conventions are getting more integra-
tive and communicative . The partici-
pants design their own „pick-and-mix“
package from parts of the program
that are most interesting and impor-
tant to them, move around between
sessions, posters and exhibitions,
and use every opportunity to network
informally .
The layout of conventions will change
in order to optimally meet the need for
more flexibility and integration.
At LINC the structural boundaries blur
between lecture halls, exhibitions,
poster area, foyers and catering zones .
All event zones are within sight and
sound and create a complete unit . As
modern as this layout is, it does take
on one archaic (cultural) concept: the
idea of the marketplace .
Sensory experiences will play a greater
role in future convention design.
Color, form, lighting - LINC‘s well-
thought-out design and lighting con-
cept goes far beyond mere decoration
and has obviously been influenced by
the wellness idea .
Technical requirements at conventions
will get more ambitious and complex:
The LINC places the highest demands
on network- and presentation technol-
ogy . Live worldwide coverage, X-ray
livestreams and explanatory charts
can all be projected on screens at the
same time . In addition, participants
can test CCL‘s technical capacity and
WLAN-infrastructure with their mo-
bile terminals .
Summary
83
"In choosing to have an event in Germany, which of the following criteria do you think will be more important in 2030 than they are now? Which are becoming more important?"
Transportation Links
Source: Study “Meetings and Conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping our industry”
Attractiveness Technology Contact
Value for money Sustainability Key Industries Exhibition Areas
Catering
58% 55% 50% 43% 42% 38% 32% 28% 25%
Summary
R Another finding of the study: The greatest number of respond-ents assumes that sustainability will remain relevant, even crucial, and that industry actors will have to deal with it more intensively.
Participants expect that German suppliers
will continue to score with their sustain-
ability expertise - especially as the eco-
logical damage and negative impact from
Western and global production and way
of life become more evident, frequent and
violent. Offering of sustainable solutions
and practices can therefore be a genuine
advantage that sets suppliers apart from
others.
R Sustainable development will become an important quality factor and criterion in choosing convention and meeting loca-tions. It will be a crucial advan-tage in the competition among event centers and destinations.
Germany can already boast with this
advantage. As the focus on sustainability
continues to rise, i.e., due to the effects of
climate change, this quality factor will pay
off for pioneers like Germany, as a reliable
image is something that has to be built
and maintained over years. As a result,
certifications and rankings will become
even more important in influencing the
success of destinations.
84
Select social models from contem-
porary social sciences provided the
theoretical basis for the trend analyses:
Multi-option Society (Peter Gross),
(Event) Society (Gerhard Schultze),
Risk Society (Ulrich Beck), Second
Modernity and Reflexive Modernisation
(Ulrich Beck, Anthony Giddens), Post-
growth Society (Angelika Zahrnt) and
Great Transformation (WBGU-German
Advisory Council on Global Change).
Important developments in modern so-
cieties were designated as megatrends:
globalisation and internationalisa-
tion, „peak everything,“ urbanisation,
demographic change, feminisation and
diversity, technology in work and life,
sustainable development, mobility of the
future, and security and safety.
The procedure can be understood as the
use of an expanding „range of possibili-
ties“ for future developments („pos-
sible futures“). Feasible and plausible
future developments will no longer
be as extensive as conditions become
more restrictive. An additional reduc-
tion was possible when we focused on
probable futures, which are limited by
power structures, customs and technical
capacities. These analytical steps could
be rapidly dealt with in the study. In the
context of „Meetings and Conventions
2030,“ we decided on an even more
limited category - „preferable futures.“
These are the developments, activities
and effects that are particularly impor-
tant for the German Convention Bureau,
its members and project partners and
should be used proactively. They were
examined and clarified by the Institute
for Future Studies and Technology As-
sessment (IZT) and during the scenario
workshop.
Methods and ProcedureThe study is based on literature and document evaluation, a brainstorming workshop, interviews with experts and the three proven methods of scientific future research: trend analyses, scenario development and roadmapping.
The Research Process
Interviews with Experts from the meetings industry and other industries
22 interviews were conducted with
industry experts as well as specialists
in the fields of knowledge transfer,
technologies and architecture. The 30
to 60 minute interviews took place from
January to May 2013. Together with
Methods
the IZT (Institute for Futures Studies
and Technology Assessment) team, we
made a selection that is included in the
appendix.
Delphi Method
To evaluate the most important techno-
logical developments and breakthroughs
for the meetings industry up until 2030,
we conducted a survey using the Delphi
method. This took place online in two
sessions with 24 German and international
experts.
Information: The Delphi method was
designed for strategic and military pur-
poses in the USA in the 1940s by the RAND
Corporation, a think tank that advised the
US military.
85
The Research Process and the Instruments
Desktop ResearchMegatrends and Trends
Links between Trend and Industry Development
Technological Development: Event Technology, Robotics, Web, Energy
Ideas and Visions for Architecture, Technology, Knowledge Transfer
Validation of Various Apects from the Industry Perspective
Interviews with Experts
Delphi with Experts
Scenario-Workshop
Online Survey
A group of experts receive a series of
questions to be answered anonymously.
In the second round, the participants
evaluate the questions and propositions
after receiving a summary of the results.
This gives them the opportunity to reflect
on their answers and assessments with
the help of the group results and to
change them if they want. The use of a
summary during the second round of the
study is basically an exchange of views.
All of the respondents‘ opinions are being
considered. Due to the anonymity of the
summary, participants can‘t be influenced
by other more dominant participants. De-
pending on its set-up, a Delphi study can
help determine the views of experts (i.e.,
the probability of a technical invention
and when it might come about), collect
topic ideas, choose selected issues or get
a consensus on certain subjects.
Online Survey
77 people from the meetings industry
were invited to take part in an online
survey with select topics from the study.
The online survey was conducted in April
and May 2013.
Scenario workshop
On April 9, 2013, an all-day workshop was
hosted in Frankfurt with 20 participants
who openly discussed topics concerning
the future of the meetings industry as
well as possible scenarios.
Seen from our vantage point now, it looks
as if the range of possibilities is on the
increase. Scientific future research differ-
entiates between (1) „possible,“ (2) „plau-
sible,“ (3) „probable,“ and (4) „desirable
(preferable)“ futures. The opportunities
and risks are distributed differently, but
scenarios can definitely help in describing
future conditions.
Methods
86
Literature/LinksThis section contains selected publications and resources that are important and recommended for individual in-depth study of the relevant topics and methods.
A collection of links is included at www.gcb.de/en/future
Appendix
Social Change
Beck, Ulrich/Bonß, Wolfgang (Hrsg.) (2001): Die Modernisierung der Moderne. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt/Main
Diamond, Jared (2006): Kollaps. Warum Gesellschaften überleben oder untergehen. Verlag S. Fischer, Frankfurt/Main
Giddens, Anthony (2009): Politics of Climate Change. University of Oxford Press, Oxford
IPCC – International Panel on Climate Change (2011): IPCC Special Report on Renewable En-ergy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Edenhofer, O. et al (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York
Kanatschnig, Dietmar/Schmutz, Petra (2004): Institutionelle In-novationsstrategien – 60 Ideen zur Initiierung und Umsetzung eines nachhaltigen Strukturwandels. Österreichisches Institut für Nach-haltige Entwicklung
Kristof, Kora (2010): Models of Change. Einführung und Verbrei-tung sozialer Innovationen und gesellschaftlicher Veränderungen in transdisziplinärer Perspektive. Vdf Hochschulverlag, Zürich
Leggewie, Claus/Welzer, Harald (2010): Das Ende der Welt, wie wir sie kannten. S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Millennium Project (Hrsg.) (2013): State of the Future Jerome C. Glenn/Theodore J. Gordon/Elizabeth Florescu; World Federation of United Nations As-sociations. Washington, D.C.
Rosa, Hartmut (2012): Weltbezie-hungen im Zeitalter der Beschle-unigung. Umrisse einer neuen Gesellschaftskritik. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Rosen, Richard A./Electris, Chris-ti/Raskin, Paul D. (2010): Global Scenarios for the Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability. Tellus Institute, Boston/USA
Speth, James Gustave (2008): The Bridge at the Edge of the World. Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing From Crisis to Sustain-ability. Yale University Press, New Haven
Globalisation
Beck, Ulrich (1997): Was ist Glo-balisierung? Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Le Monde Diplomatique (Hrsg.) (diverse Jahrgänge): Atlas der Glo-balisierung. Sehen und verstehen, was die Welt bewegt. taz Verlag, Berlin
Millennium Project (2012): State of the Future Report 2012. Washington, D.C.
Peak Everything
Gerstengarbe, Friedrich-Wilhelm/Welzer, Harald (Hrsg.) (2013): Zwei Grad mehr in Deutschland. Wie der Klimawandel unseren Alltag verändern wird. Fischer, Frankfurt/Main
Randers, Jorgen (2012): 2052. Der neue Bericht an den Club of Rome: Eine globale Prognose für die nächsten 40 Jahre. Oekom Verlag, München
Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie GmbH (2008): Zukunftsfähiges Deutschland in einer globalisierten Welt – ein Anstoß zur gesellschaftlichen Debatte (2. Auflage). Brot für die Welt, Evangelischer Entwicklungsdienst, BUND (Hrsg.). Fischer Taschenbuch Verlag, Frank-furt/Main
City of the Future
UN-Habitat (2006): Sustainable Cities Programme 1990–2000 – A Decade of United Nations Support to Broad-based Participatory Man-agement of Urban Development.
United Nations (Hrsg.) (2009): World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision. New York
Portal für europäische Nach-richten, Hintergründe und Kommunikation - EurActiv.de - YellowPaper „Stadt der Zukunft" (2011): Analysen, Standpunkte und Interviews zur europäischen Stadtentwicklung. EMM, Berlin
Acatech bezieht Position – Nr. 10 (2011): Smart Cities, Deutsche Hochtechnologie für die Stadt der Zukunft. Aufgaben und Chancen. Springer Verlag, Berlin
Beuth Hochschule für Technik Berlin (2012): Angewandte Forschung zur Stadt der Zukunft. Aktuelle Forschungsarbeiten zu urbanen Technologien und Infrastrukturen sowie urbanem Leben Logos Verlag, Berlin
Demographic Change
Statistisches Bundesamt (2009): Bevölkerung Deutschlands bis 2060 – 12. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvoraus-berechnung.
Bertelsmann Stiftung (2011): Deutschland im demografischen Wandel 2030. Datenreport.
Feminisation and Diversity
Beck, Ulrich/Beck-Gernsheim, Elisabeth (Hrsg.) (1994): Riskante Freiheiten. Individualisierung in modernen Gesellschaften. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Jansen, Mechthild M. et al. (2003): Gender Mainstreaming. Heraus-forderung für den Dialog der Geschlechter. Olzog Verlag, München
Rosa, Hartmut (2012): Weltbezie-hungen im Zeitalter der Beschle-unigung. Umrisse einer neuen Gesellschaftskritik. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Technology in Work and Life
Biesecker, Adelheid/Baier, Andrea (2011): Gutes Leben braucht andere Arbeit. oekom e.V. – Verein für ökologische Kommunikation (Hrsg.): Anders arbe-iten, München
Friedewald, Michael et al. (2010): Ubiquitäres Computing. TAB-Studie Nr. 31. 2010, Berlin
Hilty, Lorenz/Oertel, Britta/Wölk, Michaela/Pärli, Kurt (2012): Lokalisiert und identifiziert : Wie Ortungstechnologien unser Leben verändern. TA-Swiss. vdf Hochschulverlag, Zürich
87
Appendix
Spath, Dieter (Hrsg.) (2012): Arbeitswelten 4.0. Wie wir morgen arbeiten und leben. Fraunhofer IAO
VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH (Hrsg.) (2012): ips - innova-tion positioning system. Schw-erpunktthema: Mensch-Technik-Interaktion. Februar 2012
Sustainable Development
Grober, Ulrich (2010): Die Entdeck-ung der Nachhaltigkeit. Kulturge-schichte eines Begriffs. Verlag Antje Kunstmann, München
Haderlapp, Thomas/Trattnigg, Rita (2913): Zukunftsfähigkeit ist eine Frage der Kultur. Hemmnisse, Widersprüche und Gelingensfak-toren des kulturellen Wandels. ökom Verlag, München
UNEP – United Nations Environ-ment Programme (2012): Sustain-able Events Guide. Give your large event a small footprint. Nairobi/Kenia
Welzer, Harald/Wiegandt, Klaus (Hrsg.) (2011): Perspektiven einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung: Wie sieht die Welt im Jahr 2050 aus? S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/Main
Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen – WBGU (2011): Welt im Wandel. Gesells-chaftsvertrag für eine Große Transformation. Zusammenfas-sung für Entscheidungsträger. WBGU, Berlin
World Business Council for Sus-tainable Development – WBCSD (2010): Vision 2050. Exploring the Role of Business through Vision 2050
Mobility
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2006): Infrastructure to 2030 – Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity. OECD Publishing, Paris.
Allgemeiner Deutscher Auto-mobil-Club e. V. (ADAC) (2011): Verkehr von morgen. Szenarien und Visionen: Multimobil – auch ohne eigenes Auto: Wie geht das? Auto der Zukunft: Wie sieht es aus? Information und Kommuni-kation: Was ist möglich?
Verbraucherzentrale Bundesver-band e. V. (Hrsg.) (2012): Mobilität der Zukunft aus Verbraucher-sicht. Nachhaltig, vernetzt und bezahlbar.
Institut für Zukunftsforschung und Wissensmanagement (IFK)/Automotive Institute for Management (AIM) (2012): Das Zukunftsbarometer zur Mobilität der Zukunft.
Safety
Dyer, Gwynne (2010): Climate Wars. The fight for survival as the world overheats. Oneworld Publications, Oxford/England
IPCC – International Panel on Cli-mate Change (2011): IPCC Report. New York City
TAB – Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (2010): Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften – am Beispiel eines großräumigen Ausfalls der Stromversorgung (Arbeitsbericht Nr. 141). Berlin
Scientific Futures Studies
Hölscher, Lucian (1999): Die En-tdeckung der Zukunft. Fischer Taschenbuch-Verlag, Frankfurt am Main
Kreibich, Rolf (2008): Zukunfts-forschung für die gesellschaftliche Praxis. IZT-WerkstattBericht Nr. 29/2008. Berlin
Popp, Reinhold/Schüll, Elmar (Hrsg.) (2009): Zukunftsforschung und Zukunftsgestaltung. Beiträge aus Wissenschaft und Praxis. Springer-Verlag, Berlin und Heidel-berg
Rust, Holger (2008): Zukunftsil-lusionen. Kritik der Trendforschung. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden
Megatrends
Naisbitt, John (1984): Megatrends: Ten new directions transforming our lives. Warner Books, New York
Popp, Reinhold (Hrsg.) (2012): Zukunft & Wissenschaft. Zukunfts-forschung auf dem Prüfstand. Springer-Verlag, Berlin und Heidel-berg
Scenarios
European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN)
Kosow, Hannah; Gaßner, Robert (2008): Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis. Overview, As-sessment, and Selection Criteria. Studies no 39. Deutsches Institut für Entwicklung-spolitik, Bonn
Delphi Method
Cuhls, Kerstin (1998): Tech-nikvorausschau in Japan. Ein Rückblick auf 30 Jahre Delphi-Expertenbefragungen. Physica Verlag, Heidelberg (Dis-sertation)
Wildcards
Petersen, John L.; Steinmüller, Karlheinz (2009): Wild Cards. The Millennium Project (Hrsg.): Futures Research Methodology Ver-sion 3.0, Washington, CD-ROM.
Steinmüller, Karlheinz (2012): Wild Cards, Schwache Signale und Web-Seismografen. Vom Umgang der Zukunftsforschung mit dem Unvorhersagbaren. Focus-Jahrbuch 2012.
88
Appendix
Participants in the futures study
Attendees of the GCB-IZT Scenario Workshop, 9 April 2013, InterContinental Hotel Frankfurt/Main
1. Thomas Berghausen | meta-fusion, General Manager
2. Claudia Brückner | NewThinking
3. Birgit Gebhardt | Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Associated Researcher
4. Marcus Gloria | Cooltour Bochum, Owner / General Manager
5. Dr. Helga Jonuschat | Innovation Centre for Mobilty and Social Change (InnoZ) GmbH
6. Alexander Kramer | Deutsche Werbewelt
7. Matthias Kuom | DLR – German Aerospace Center (DLR), Research Coordinator
8. Olaf Pfeifer | Architect
9. Professor Dr. Günter Pfeifer | TU Darmstadt
10. Professor Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg | RWTH Aachen
11. Jürgen Schultheis | House of Logistics and Mobility, Senior Manager PR & Communication
12. Kay Constanze Strobl | Deloitte & Touche GmbH, Manager
13. Professor Dr. Ulrich Wünsch | hdpk School of Popular Arts, Berlin
14 . Colleagues from IZT Representatives of the Study Partners Colleagues from GCB
Participants in the expert interviews
1. Zahar Barth-Manzoori | German Acadamic Exchange Service (DAAD), Head of the Department for Events and Visitors Programmes
2. Alexandra Biebel | Alcatel-Lucent Enterprise, , Marketing / Advertisement / PR, Workgroup Leader Trade Fairs & Events BITKOM
3. Klaus Brähmig | German Bundestag, Chairman of the Committee for Tourism
4. Guido Brombach | German Trade Union Confederation (DGB), Technologies of the Future
5. Welf Ebeling | GBTA – Global Business Travel Association, Regional Director for Asia-Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand
6. Christian Helfrich | David Chipperfield Architects
7. Jeannie Lim | Singapore Tourism Board, Executive Director Conventions & Meetings, Convention Centers
8. Christian Luft | Drees + Sommer | International Trainer of Auditors
9. Heike Mahmoud | visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office, Director Conventions
10. Kristin K. Mirabal | The Optical Society, Washington, DC | USA CMP, Director, Global Programs
11. Dr. Peter Neven | Association of the German Trade Fair Industry (AUMA), General Manager
12. Professor Dr. Reinhold Popp | University of Applied Science, Centre for Futures Studies Salzburg
13. Dr. Ulrike Regele | The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag, DIHK e .V .) Head of the Department for Trade and Tourism
14. Prof. Dr. Ulrich Reinhard | Foundation for Future Studies, Hamburg, Scientific Director
15. Stefan Rief | Fraunhofer IAO, Head of Competence Center Workspace Innovation
16. Astrid Messmer-Rodriguez | Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Group Strategy
17. Andreas Schele | Drees & Sommer AG, Senior Project Partner
18. Dr. Jo Sollich | Sollich Architekten, Berlin
19. Kay Constanze Strobl | Deloitte & Touche GmbH, Manager
20. Dr. Stefan Walter | House of Logistics and Mobility, General Manager
21. Dr. Marion Weber | Federal Ministery of Economic Affairs and Energy, Head of the Department for Tourism Politics
22. Martin Zeumer | ee concept gmbh, Proxy Holder
89
Appendix
Participants in the Delphi survey
1. Corbin Ball | Corbin Ball Associates
2. Thomas Berghausen | Metafusion, General Manager
3. Claudia Brückner | NewThinking
4. Klara von Carlsburg | Foundation for Future Studies
5. Dr. Michael Geisser | Ubivent General Manager
6. Professor Dr. Sabina Jeschke | RWTH Aachen
7. Dr. Helga Jonuschat | Innovation Centre for Mobilty and Social Change, Dr . phil ./Dipl .-Ing . Architecture / Urban Planning
8. Matthias Kuom | German Aerospace Center (DLR), Research Coordinator
9. Kwa Chin Lum | Centre for Strategic Studies, Deputy Director, Strategic Policy Office/Head
10. Johannes Mahn | Z_punkt GmbH, Foresight Consultant
11. Kristin K. Mirabal | The Optical Society, Washington, DC | USA CMP, Director, Global Programs
12. Heike Niemeier | Project Management Berlin
13. Professor Dr. Günter Pfeifer | TU Darmstadt
14. Olaf Pfeifer | Architect
15. Dennis Presche | Deutsche Werbewelt, Head of Media Technology
16. Dr. Asarnusch Rashid | FZI Research Center for Information Technology, Karlsruhe, Head of Department
17. Stefan Rief | Fraunhofer IAO, Head of Competence Center Workspace Innovation Fraunhofer IAO
18. Mandy Scheermesser | Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Research Associate at the Department of Health, Institute for Physiotherapy
19. Professor Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg | RWTH Aachen
20. Dr. Hendrik Send | Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Project Manager: Web-based Innovation
21. Dr. Jo Sollich | Sollich Architekten
22. Karen Sternsdorff | German Sustainable Building Council (DGNB – Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen e .V .), Team Leader, System Development
23. Jan Zak | ikl consulting engineers Prof . Dr .-Ing . Kunibert Lennerts GmbH, Head of the Department for Sustainability and Certification
24. Erik Zürn | Research Centre (Forschungszentrum) Jülich
90
Age Diversity ManagementAge Diversity Management can be taken
as an internationally used global term
referring to policies, strategies and
instruments for the implementation of
age diversity. Age diversity includes both
the older generation and the offspring as
well as working together in a company.
The basic idea is to bundle the various
qualities, knowledge, and experiences of
different generations and to employ it to
the benefit of the work results.
ActuatorsActuators transduce electric current or
voltage into another energy form such as
sound, pressure, temperature, motion,
torque, light, etc. The various methods
to transduce electric into non-electric
energy applied within actuators — electro-
magnetic, inductive, piezoelectric, opto-
electric, magnetostrictive, electrostatic,
electrochemical — decide on the amount
of the transducible energy through their
degree of efficiency.
Ageing of the populationThe ageing of the population is a charac-
teristic of demographic change. On the
one hand, the absolute age of the popula-
tion is rising due to mankind’s constantly
increased life expectancy. On the other
hand, the age structure is changing —
worldwide, in various ways and depending
on the birth rates. Globally, the number of
persons older than 60 years is expected
to almost treble from 739 million to 2,000
million by 2050. In the industrialised
countries, the portion of over-60-year-
olds is expected to grow faster than ever
before. In the year 2050, about one third
of the population is expected to be older
than 60 years in these countries.
BarCampsA BarCamp is an open meeting (non-con-
vention) where agenda and contents are
developed by the participants themselves
during the course of the meeting. The
course of BarCamps resembles the open
space method, but is of a more flexible
Appendix
Glossary
organisation. A BarCamp consists of
lectures, speeches and sessions coordi-
nated by the participants themselves on
whiteboards, meta-plans or pin boards at
the beginning of the meeting.
Cloud ComputingCloud Computing means dynamical on-
demand provision, use and payment of
IT services via a network. Supply and use
of these services are exclusively car-
ried out via defined technical interfaces
and protocols. The scope of the services
offered in the context of Cloud Comput-
ing comprises the complete range of
information technology, including, among
other things, infrastructure (computing
power, storage, for example), platforms,
and software.
Corporate CitizenshipCorporate Citizenship means the active
citizenship within and by companies
pursuing a medium- and long-term entre-
preneurial strategy based on responsible
acting and involving active work as "good
citizens" for the local civil society or eco-
logical or cultural matters, for example,
beyond their actual business. The English
terminology indicates that it originally
was the adoption of a management idea
as part of a public affairs strategy from
the U.S.
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)Corporate Social Responsibility gains
in importance as part of the strategic
management of companies. Mainly for
global value chains, there is a growing
requirement to implement environmental
and social standards in order to secure
long-term supply of sustainably produced
products.
Digital NativesThe term "digital natives" traces back to
Marc Prensky."Digital natives" are persons
who have grown up with the Internet and
mobile phones and have no knowledge of
the analogous era, that is the generation
born after 1990. The contrary of a "digital
native" is a "digital immigrant", that is a
person who has become acquainted with
the new technologies only after growing
up and is coping with them on a step-by-
step basis only.
Eco-City According to a simple definition, eco-cities
are "ecologically healthy cities". More
detailed, this term means communities
and cities that have committed to the
principles of ecological and sustainable
management and show the smallest
possible ecological footprint. Examples
for these ecological principles include the
ability to generate electric energy from
renewable energies, heat generation with-
out combustion processes, energy-sparing
construction (passive house, low-energy
house), and emission-free traffic within
towns as well as facilities and workplaces
that are as low in emissions as possible.
Water production from rain water, water
recycling and separate water circuits for
drinking and service water have to be
mentioned as well. Furthermore, waste
avoidance and recycling have to be prac-
tised.
Gadgets Gadgets are small technical appliances
or programmes having a rather low user
value (also called "gimmicks" or "gizmos").
Examples for gadgets are solar-powered
pencil sharpeners, coffee cup heaters with
USB connection or the constant display
of the weather in a small window on the
workstation PC.
Greenwashing Greenwashing is a critical term for PR
methods aiming at giving a company an
eco-friendly and responsible image in
public without there being a sufficient
basis. The term hints at the colour "green"
as a symbol of nature and environmental
protection and "washing" in the sense
of money laundering or whitewashing.
The term originally referred to an alleged
eco-friendliness, but has also been used
91
for alleged corporate responsibility in the
meantime.
Head-up Display HUD stands for head-up display. It means
a display area in the line of sight (sight
display). The HUD is a display system
where information relevant to the user
(pilots, car drivers, etc.) is projected into
the main line of sight so that the head
position and viewing direction have to
be altered only barely to perceive the
information.
Holodeck The term "holodeck" from the science-
fiction series "Star Treck" designates
a facility where the visitors can enter
a computer-generated world. In this
space, virtual worlds hardly distinguish-
able from reality are created by means
of holographic methods. Unlike already
existing systems of virtual reality, the
projected environments, objects and
persons can be perceived not only visu-
ally and acoustically, but also in a haptic
manner, so that the user experiences a
feeling of total immersion.
Intermodality The term "intermodality" originates from
the area of goods transport and has been
used in the U.S.A. for the novel handling
of goods in standardised containers be-
tween railway, lorries and ships since the
1960ies. Basically, intermodality is always
given, when more than one means of
transportation is used to transport goods
and people, and when a change between
these means of transportation occurs.
Internet of Things and Service This trend means the interconnection of
objects by means of the Internet in order
to allow these objects to autonomously
communicate via the Internet and to fulfil
various tasks for their owner. The area of
application stretches from general supply
of information via automatic ordering up
to warning and emergency functions. In
the future, more and more objects will
Appendix
"use" the Internet to interconnect and
to exchange information. Furthermore,
innovative, combined services offered
via the Internet will be created. The
Internet of Things and Services is one
of the key issues for the future and an
effective global trend.
ICT technologies Information and communication tech-
nology (ICT technology) can be used for
three kinds of applications: 1. trans-
mission of information through space
(communication), 2. transmission of
information through time (storage), and
3. regulated transformation of informa-
tion within space and time using an
algorithm.
Megacities Worldwide, more and more megacities
have been emerging (cities with more
than ten million inhabitants). In 2015,
their number is expected to grow to 26,
22 of which are located in emerging and
developing countries. In addition, there
is a great number of other large cities
and cities with over one million inhabit-
ants. By 2030, cities are expected to
cover an area which is almost three
times as large as their area today. By
2025, the number of buildings in the
cities is expected to almost double. In
all agglomerations of the world, serious
problems arise from housing shortage,
environmental stress, difficulties in
drinking water supply and waste dis-
posal as well as from the tremendously
high traffic density and the resulting air
pollution.
Man-Machine Interface This term means a juncture between
two mutually interconnected systems.
To allow functioning communica-
tion between the two systems, the
interface has to be standardised as a
rule. Two types have been adopted:
The man-machine interface and the
machine-machine interface. The former
serves the dialogue between user and
machine: in general, a software is inter-
posed between man and machine, making
understanding possible. It includes con-
trol elements such as keyboard, mouse,
screen, etc., as well as software elements
such as menus, dialogue boxes and
windows. The machine-machine interface
(also called "port") is an interface between
two devices or two software objects, such
as two application programmes, but also
between software and hardware.
Multibiometric systems Multibiometric systems consist of several
biometric subsystems for various modali-
ties (fingerprint and iris, for example) that
complement one another. The mutual
influencing of the systems refers to rec-
ognition exactness, security and variabil-
ity. In literature, such a system based on
the features of face, fingerprint and hand
geometry has been described in A.K. Jain,
A. Ross: Multibiometric Systems, Com-
munications of the ACM; January 2004,
Vol. 47, No. 1.
OLED The Organic Light-Emitting Diode (OLED)
is a further development of the light-
emitting diode (LED) for display technol-
ogy. In contrast to LEDs, the coloured
self-luminous OLEDs consist of organic
semiconductors emitting light within an
electric field. OLEDs are characterised by
high light density and good contrast, they
are self-luminous, flexible, extremely flat
and have a high resolution. The innova-
tion in this technology is that this module
no longer primarily is aimed at illumina-
tion but is ideally suited to manufacture
screens. These screens are extremely flat
and can be operated in any size at any
place.
Open-space conventions Open space is a method of large group
moderation for structuring conventions.
It is suitable for groups from about 50
to 2,000 participants. The openness in
terms of contents and form is typical:
with open space, only a general topic is
92
specified to the participants. Neither
an agenda nor lecturers or modera-
tors are pre-determined. The individual
subtopics are autonomously named by
the participants in the initial phase. The
workgroups assigned to the subtopics
have to meet requirements in terms of
time only — and not of contents. The
participants are free in attending the
sessions.
Peak EverythingTerm derived from "peak oil". The term
"peak oil" or "Hubbert peak" means a
point in time when a global oil produc-
tion maximum has been reached, the
production decreasing on a global scale
afterwards.
"Peak everything" means the fact that,
at some point in time, not only the oil
reserves but almost all natural resourc-
es cannot be produced any more in the
quantities that would be required by our
modern society.
QR code
QR codes are 2D codes that can be
scanned and read by mobile phones,
Smartphones and tablets, and where
web addresses, phone numbers, SMS
and free text can be included. They
connect the physical and virtual worlds
and play, among other things, a part in
publications and marketing.
Resource Efficiency Mainly due to partly enormous price
increases and volatilities in the raw ma-
terial markets, resource efficiency has
become more and more crucial for the
world’s economy during the last years.
This is also reflected in the intensive de-
bate on effective politics regarding the
use of resources (Federal Government,
Federal Environment Ministry, Federal
Ministry of Economics, European Com-
mission, etc.). Challenges for the securi-
ty of supply add to it as well and let new
questions arise in terms of competitive
strategy. Thus it is expected that a criti-
Appendix
cal shortage of rare metals could result
from the dynamic growth of important
future technologies (such as electromo-
bility, renewable energies). The follow-
ing are key strategies to respond to the
challenges: Procure and use resources
in an intelligent and efficient way, sub-
stitute scarce raw materials and recover
recyclable fractions.
RFID RFID means methods to automatically
identify objects by radio-frequency. RFID
systems can adequately be used in all
applications where automatic label-
ling, identification, registering, storing,
monitoring or transporting is required.
RFID systems are offered in various
versions. Despite of the large range
of RFID solutions, any RFID system is
defined by the following three charac-
teristics: 1. electronic identification (the
system allows a unique identification of
objects by means of electronically stored
data), 2. contactless data transfer (to
identify the object, the data can be read
wirelessly via a radio-frequency chan-
nel), and 3. transmission on demand
(a labelled object will send its data only
if a designated reader requests this
procedure).
Sensor A sensor is an optical / mechani-
cal / chemical / electronic component
that transforms a measured physical
quantity or a chemical effect into an
analogous electrical signal. Physical
quantities can be, among other things,
pressure, weight, acceleration, light in-
tensity, temperature, radiation, sound,
magnetic flow, rotational speed. The
sensor records these physical quantities
and converts them using inductive, ca-
pacitive, piezoelectric, magnetic, field-
intensity-controlled, radioactive, load
or photo-electric converters into electric
voltage that is put into a consistent
relation to the input quantity. A sensor
thus scales the signals to make them
readable for further processing.
Sick-Building-Syndrom (SBS) The term is used to describe a situation
where people living in a building show
symptoms of diseases that seem to
be connected to a too long stay in the
building, while no specific causes can
be identified, however. Moreover, the
WHO distinguishes two types of SBS:
"temporary SBS" describes complaints
that occur shortly after moving into the
building, and "persistent SBS" describes
complaints that persist after moving in.
Causes could be contaminants within
the indoor air. These include, for exam-
ple, poisonous evaporations, so-called
volatile organic compounds, released by
certain sources such as newly installed
materials like floor and carpet adhe-
sives, toxic substances from furniture
(varnishes, paints and coatings) as well
as minerals from insulating materials,
pest control substances and cleaners.
Urbanisation Urbanisation means the spreading of
urban lifestyles into rural areas. This
process has been observed for centu-
ries already, but it has reached a so far
unprecedented extent particularly in
the emerging and developing countries
during the last decades. That trend will
continue. For the year 2030, it is ex-
pected that over two third of the world
population will live in cities.
Virtual collaboration The importance of successful virtual
collaboration continues to rise in the
course of globalisation and the increase
of value-adding partners. Growing
mobility of employees and partners is
a reason for many companies to use
cloud-based technologies.
Change in the raw materials base Crude oil is becoming scarce. The OPEC
(Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries) will no longer be able to sat-
isfy the demand in a few years’ time.
Coal and unconventional oil deposits
(such as tarry sands, "shale gas") offer
93
Appendix
fossil fuels for medium-term consump-
tion. In the long term, however, this will
not change much regarding the global
shortage. Renewable resources are gain-
ing in importance.
94
ImprintThis study was created by:
IZT - Institute for Futures Studies
and Technology Assessment
Schopenhauerstr. 26
14129 Berlin
Germany
Main Editors:
Dr. Edgar Göll
Michaela Evers-Wölk
Initiator / Publisher:
GCB German Convention Bureau
Kaiserstraße 53
60329 Frankfurt/Main
Germany
www.germany-meetings.com
Editorial Work, Layout and Production:
blaueQuelle Kommunikationsgesellschaft mbH
Wilhelm-Weber-Str. 39
37073 Göttingen
Germany
Picture Reference:
fotolia.com: p. 25, p. 29, p. 51, p. 55, p. 56, p. 62,
p. 68
istockphoto.com: p. 78–79
Print: Grafische Werkstatt 1980, Kassel
Germany
© 2014 GCB
This work including all its parts is
protected by copyright laws. Any use
of the texts and pictures outside the
narrow limits of the copyright law
is prohibited without prior approval
by the publisher or the licensor of
the pictures. This applies to copies,
translations, microfiching, and the
storage and processing in electronic
systems. Prognoses and any forward-
looking statements are subject to
significant uncertainties. The GCB
assumes no responsibility for the
correctness and completeness of the
information concerning the future.
Nominal charge: 449 euro
95
96
GCB German Convention Bureau
Kaiserstraße 53
60329 Frankfurt/Main
Germany
Phone: +49 69 2429-300
Fax: +49 69 2429-3026
E-mail: [email protected]
Internet: www.germany-meetings.com
twitter.com/GCB_Deutschland
twitter.com/GermanyMeetings
facebook.com/GermanConventionBureau